Sure, the Canucks had a great second half and have an outstanding goal keeper. But they aren't in a different class than the Hawks, and even if they were, as the Ducks showed, you can always outplay a team if you approach things right and get a hot netminder.
The Hawks have the talent offensively and defensively to beat the Canucks. It's just a matter of whether they can make Luongo look human and whether Khabi can meet his challenge. Both of those are reasonably likely to happen - not to say the odds are on the Hawks side, as I'd say it's too close to call - but it wouldn't be any great surprise if they did.
So, just like Round 1, this is a winnable series - remember, the Hawks actually had more standings points than the Canucks, 104 to 100. And like Round 1, it should be a battle that goes at least 6 games. Unlike Round 1, the Hawks don't have the luxury of home ice. But also unlike Round 1, the Hawks aren't playoff newbies anymore. They've gone through the fire and been found able. There is no reason to believe they cannot do so yet again.
The Canucks bring with them an interesting history. Everyone remembers the Russian Rocket Pavel Bure carrying this squad to the 1994 Cup Finals, only to lose to the Rangers in a dramatic 7-game series that pretty much marked the high point of the NHL's popularity in America. Since then, not a whole lot to report on the Canucks.
They haven't even been back to the Conference Finals, but they also haven't been bad. There was a tough 4-year stretch from 96-97 to 99-00 where they couldn't make the playoffs, but they weren't awful, and they did follow that with a 4-year string of playoff appearances before the lock-out. It's been a mixed bag since returning - no playoffs, then 105 points and a series victory, followed by another missed post-season last year, before again reaching 100 points and earning the #3 seed this season.
Offensively, Vancouver is middle of the road with a power play that is actually slightly below average. With Luongo in net, it's not surprising that they are the 7th stingiest defense in the league (tho the PK is again, middle of the road). However, before you're too impressed with our opponents - the Hawks were the 5th stingiest team, so even the Canucks supposed strength actually was in our favor during the regular season.
Against the Blues, the series was a heck of a lot closer than the sweep suggested. Besides the 3-0 spanking in Game 2, St. Louis lost each game by only a single goal. Luongo was amazing - stopping 96% of the shots in all but one of the games (in which he stopped 92%) - as the Canucks only out-shot the Blues one time.
But what does this really say about the Canucks? The Blues were a below average offensive club who was extremely young and inexperienced. They finished the year hot, but still won only half their games and gave up as many goals as they scored. Not to say the Blues were a push-over, but they also weren't one of the toughest playoff teams out there. At the very least, it suggests the Canucks still need to prove they can do it against a top tier team.
Against the Hawks this year, it's been fairly even. The Hawks won two early, the Canucks won two late. In two of the three games they saw him, the Hawks hung 4 and 3 goals on Luongo. However, twice the Canucks won by 4 goals. Each team has won at home and on the road. None of the games have gone extra time, and in fact, none have even been decided by a goal. That's something I'd imagine will change in what should be, like most NHL playoff series, a hard-fought battle, puck drop to hand shakes.
And now, the cast of characters that we'll be watching these next two weeks. A name we'll hear a ton of is Sedin, as the Canucks have two of them - Daniel and Henrik. They're twins, drafted together because they refused to play apart. In fact, the Hawks facilitated the deal that allowed the Canucks to take them both. They're approaching free agency this off-season and continue to insist that they play together. Cool shit, I say.
But more than being a novelty piece, they are highly talented. The two of them, along with Alexander Burrows, are a strong first line. Not only did they score all season long, but they're plus-minus was over 20, meaning they don't give up a lot on their end. That's important against the Hawks, who get scoring from all of their lines. And they had no trouble adjusting to the playoffs, scoring 6 goals (3 from Burrows) in 4 games against the Blues.
Only two relative weaknesses are evident - Sedin is just average on face-offs (though not terrible) and Burrows takes a lot of penalties. Although he's not very big, he racked up 150 PIM this year, most likely defending the Sedins, who are neither big nor particularly tough (although they aren't soft either). Given the scoring Burrows provides and the strength of the Hawks power play, getting him into the box should be a goal.
But really it's gonna be on Pahlsson, Versteeg, and Buff (assuming JQ rolls out the same lines) to shut them down, along, of course, with a great bit of help from Keith and Seabrook. The Canucks aren't fully reliant on this line for scoring - the 2nd line is potent and the third can't be ignored. But if the Pahlsson line and Keith-Seabrook pairing can shut these guys down, the Canucks are going to be fighting a real up-hill battle.
And it's not out of the question - they're all good scorers, but not at the level of a Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin. More importantly, Pahlsson proved two years ago that he could have their lunch, leading the Ducks to a 4-1 opening round victory over these Canucks. When you factor in how good Keith always is and how well Seabrook has been playing of late, it's very possible this match-up could tilt in the Hawks favor, tipping the whole series our way.
As I mentioned, the second line can't be ignored, and that's for two different reasons. First, all three players definitely can score and create. Second, the two most experienced forwards in the series play on this line. Third, they are a tough defensive unit for a scoring line. Finally, maybe more than any other unit, they have the ability to effect the series on both ends, both positively and negatively.
Mats Sundin came back midway through the season to make a run at a Cup with the Canucks. This after he refused to wave his no-trade clause last year when the Leafs, assured of no post-season, looked to move him. So right away I'm questioning his heart and the fact that he's been a star for almost two decades but never taken his team anywhere doesn't help. He also missed two of the four games in the Blues series and his status is uncertain for tonight.
However, there's no question Sundin's still very talented. He's also very big, although that hasn't hurt the Hawks as much this year. And he's got two talented wingers on his sides. Pavol Demitra has been around almost as long as Sundin and also continues to be a talented player with questions. He was known to disappear in big situations in the past and hasn't won any of his last five playoff series. Still, he's capable, meaning he could just pick this series to make his mark.
But the most interesting player on the line is Ryan Kesler, a Selke finalist. The Selke is my favorite trophy because it rewards one of the hardest skills to gauge - great defense out of a forward. Kesler has been a tremendous all-around player this year, scoring goals, winning face-offs, creating for his teammates, and of course, locking down the other team. He'll be leaned on to play that great defense, as again, to beat the Hawks you've got to defend from all four lines.
In all, this line can score, it's got experience, and is solid defensively. They also are nasty on the face-offs, as all three players consistently win around 55% of their draws. But they're old and have questionable histories, or in the case of Kesler, young and still a bit unproven.
The third line is also a bit of a question mark - there's talent, but it's young and inexperienced. Kyle Wellwood is small but talented, yet not a traditional play-making center, racking up only single-digit assists this year. However, he scored a good amount of goals for a third liner and is real strong in the face-off circle. Mason Ramond is also small and in only his second year, but has shown himself decently capable, though nothing special. Steve Bernier brings the size that the other two lack, but also is young, capable, but not really amazing.
This line intrigues only because it's hard to know what they'll do in the playoffs. It's a common story for players or whole lines to come out of nowhere to contribute. While this line isn't dangerous, they can definitely score. They're young so they've got some legs to them. But they also aren't proven nor the greatest players. I'll be interested to see what role they play.
The Canucks 4th line doesn't bring a whole lot to the table, but they also don't hurt them too much. They won't be on the ice much, they won't give up much for goals, but they also aren't likely to contribute anything. Darcy Hordichuk is the only bruiser - Ryan Johnson and Rick Rypien are sort of filler. Rypien is still young and didn't play much this year - I think he was out with an injury - so he might have some talent. But it seems like they won't be a major factor, unlike the Hawks' 4th, who can both score and change the tone of the game.
Finally, if Sundin can't go or another Canuck skater goes down, Jannik Hansen proved to be the fill-in, skating in two games last series. He's not terrible, but also not a major difference maker, so losing Sundin would be a significant step down.
The Canucks blue line has the nice advantage of playing in front of one of the biggest and best goaltenders in the game. It features three long-proven vets, two strong young up-and-comers, and a young big bruiser. There were some injury concerns in the last round, but the long layoff earned by the sweep has allowed what supposedly has been enough time to get everyone back up to full speed.
Veteran Willie Mitchell is a pure stay-at-home type who makes his money stopping the other team at even strength and on the penality kill. He didn't miss any time in the first round, but he was pretty apparently injured. Given the Hawks outstanding skaters, the Canucks need Mitchell to continue to log a ton of minutes.
Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo have been around for a while and bring strong two-way play to the Vancouver blueline. Salo missed two games in the first series, necessitating time by the respectable Ossi Vaananen, but should be ready to go for Game 1. Between Mitchell, Ohlund, and Salo, they've strung together 30 years of NHL experience.
But the Vancouver blueline isn't without some capable youth, as Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler have logged a lot of minutes and been busy contributing to the offense with good shots and strong passing. The Blues didn't have the offense to test these youngsters like the Hawks do - it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Finally, Shane O'Brien is young, big, and has no issue with physicality within or beyond the rules. He racked up 196 PIM but doesn't log the big ice time as the five other defenders do.
In general, the Hawks need to respect that this team can score or set-up plays from the point, as every Vancouver blueliner is capable offensively. Especially when combined with how big Luongo is, it's also clear the Hawks won't have a lot of space to work - the Canucks defensemen are very big guys. However, that also suggests they aren't the fastest, which means the Hawks highly mobile offense could give them fits. Not to say they're slow, but at that size, can they keep up with all the speed the Hawks bring? Or will they try to combat that in much the same way the Flames did - by being overly physical?
All signs point to that being the case, though as the Flames learned, that's no cure all. The Hawks are fast and offensively gifted, but they aren't soft by any means. They've got plenty of tough guys and far from minding when a game gets tough, these feisty kids seem to relish it. It's always a challenge to be both physical and effective, but the Hawks learned pretty quickly how to ramp up their aggressiveness for playoff hockey.
Finally, below is my best guess at the Canucks special teams. As I mentioned, their power play is good, but not unstoppable. And their penalty kill is capable, but can be beaten. In my mind it really doesn't matter whether we're even, down, or up one skater - it's all about taking the game to the Canucks.
In the last series, the Hawks had to be aggressive in their philosophy in order to keep the Flames great offense at bay and take advantage of their porous defense. In this series, the reasons are totally different, but the approach needs to be the same. The Canucks offense is good, but nothing amazing. If you take the game to them, they don't have the pure fire power to get back into it. On the other hand, the Canucks defense and goaltending is very strong, meaning that if you aren't giving yourself every chance possible to score, you're gonna have a hard time getting the goals needed to win.
JQ needs to continue to get his blueliners pushing forward and his skates focused wholly on getting the puck deep into the Canuck end and keeping it there. He has to have faith in his defense's and forward's ability to cover mistakes, and ultimately for Khabi to clean up after all of them. Don't sit back and turn a solid Canuck offense into a highly potent one.
It would seem with the imposing figure of Luongo hanging over this series, JQ would know that he has to throw everything he can forward in an effort to break through offensively. Let's hope it's the case, because I really believe the Hawks have everything it takes to win this series and reach an improbable conference finals. But that will only happen if they approach the game aggressively.
.JPG)
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