Last week here, I had the audacity to believe that a Chicago team was headed to the promised land. Hopefully I picked up a few followers with my post. Or maybe the Hawks continued stellar play since has brought you into my camp.
For the remaining skeptics (probably most of you), follow me through the roster, top to bottom. Then remember that some NHL team will hoist the Cup and ask what are we missing that these other teams have, or that the many champions in the past have had?
Let's start with Captain Serious - Toews is one of the top two-way centers in hockey, as evidenced by his consideration for a spot on Team Canada. Whether he's ultimately chosen or not doesn't matter - just being a serious option for what is essentially an All-Star team means he's one of the top five or ten centers in the game.
As my brother was saying last week, while Hawks fans (myself included) didn't make a huge deal of it at the time, getting Hossa may turn out to be one of the more impressive feats this talented front office has pulled off. Everyone was thrown by how unexpected it was while also being bummed to have lost Havlat, who really played well last year. But the reality is that Hossa is long been one of the premier wingers in hockey, again in the top five or ten in the game. As he plays himself back into mid-season form, we're starting to see what an impact player he really is.
And then there's Kane, a player who regularly does things that have players, commentators, and fans gushing over his capabilities. Already a frontline playmaker, the most encouraging thing about Kane is that he's gotten obviously better each season. Not just in what he can do, but in how he approaches the game. As good as Kane was last season, he took it to a whole new level in the playoffs. And I believe that has only juiced his confidence, which has allowed him to come back this year and has been even better and more complete. His recent late game heroics are no surprise - Kane clearly is now combining maturity and a belief that he can do anything with his already impressive set of natural gifts.
Right there you've got a Big 3 as good as any in hockey. They've got the complete set of offensive gifts, they can play on both ends (I've even noticed Kane doing more defensively, making him less of a zero in the Hawks' zone), and they're physical (Toews and Hossa both can work the boards or camp in front of the net with the best of them). Proof of how good they are is the way their ice time together becomes a defacto power play for the Hawks. If I were in JQ's shoes, I'm not sure whether or not I'd play them together - I can see clearly the arguments for balancing your lines. But there is something appealing about completely dominating the puck every third shift that would make me strongly consider it.
Regardless of how JQ uses them, those three are as good or better than any you'll find in hockey. And what makes them all the more impressive is that the Hawks round out their Top 6 forwards as good as any you'll find in hockey. That's why JQ can even consider running out The Big 3 together - because he knows he'll still have a very potent second line for his opponents to deal with.
While it was a big loss to not see the 23-year old Bolland continue to develop his all-around game, the reality is that what he showed last year established him as a legit two-way second line center. If he can get back and up to full speed by the playoffs (and early reports seem to suggest that will be the case), the Hawks will be fully loaded at center for the first time since they ran out Roenick, Nichols, Savard, and Sutter in the 95 playoffs.
In Sharp, the Hawks have a guy who can consistently score 30+ goals. Because the other players have more hype to them, Sharp's skills and accomplishments have been glossed over - but regularly scoring 30 marks you as a frontline NHL scorer. Throw in his great speed and plus defensive abilities and he's complete enough to be a 1st liner on most teams.
Similarly, while he's still raw and prone to mental mistakes, Versteeg's playmaking skills are rare and uber-valuable, and when you consider that he's not afraid to play scrappy and is also a plus defender, again you've got a guy capable of being a top liner on a lot of teams. All told, that's a heck of a Top 6 group of forwards - size, playmaking, grit, defense, and scoring from multiple sources.
As the Devil fans have long known and we've quickly learned, Madden is about as good of a defensive center as you'll find. He's learned in the role, has the talent to get it done, and executes to perfection. And come the playoffs, Madden will be even more vital, regularly skating against the other team's top line, taking key face-offs, and killing off penalties.
Going along with Madden, the Hawks have a trio of gritty role players who bring size, defense, toughness, and energy, while also capable of capitalizing on the talents of more skilled linemates. Not only will these guys be key in joining Madden to shut down the other team's top line, but come the grind-it-out play of the post-season, they'll also be necessary to allowing your Top 6 guys to utilize their talents. Given that this makes 10 skaters for three lines, the Hawks have an enviable bit of depth to use in a possible trade, to cover for any injuries, or even to improve an already strong 4th line.
Ladd, no longer skating with playmakers Havlat and Bolland, has seen his numbers fall a bit this year, but his on-ice contributions remain just as important. The fact that he's never posted a negative plus-minus with the Hawks really tells you it all. Brouwer has really stepped up, totally fulfilling the role of guy who does the little things that aren't noticed. I'll definitely eat crow here - Brouwer is a valuable role player and JQ was right to commit so much PT to him last year. Finally, Buff remains an enigma, a guy capable of disappearing for shifts, periods, or even games at a time. However, he's also fully capable of impressing you with speed, hands, his shot, and of course his physical play. You can't win in the playoffs without the work of lunch pail types back-boning the skilled play of your stars, and the Hawks have as good of a group of such as is out there.
Rounding out the forwards, the Hawks have a very deep and capable 4th line group who will give you the desired energy and toughness, but also do it with plus defense and a rare bit of speed and offensive skill. And that's an advantage. The fourth line will skate a good 6-8 minutes a game - given how close every playoff contest is, the difference in a win or loss can easily be a slight edge in these 4th liners. And that's an edge the Hawks will often have.
Like Bolland, the hope is that Burish can return in time to get back to full speed by the playoffs, and so far that seems to be his timetable. Again, in the gritty play of the post-season, having a pest like Burish is a must. Burish is exceptionally skilled at getting under the other team's skin, but it's even more impressive that he can kill penalties so well while also providing some speed and offensive skill - both often lacking on a 4th line.
Eager is similar in that he fills the role of the Hawks' heavyweight, but does so with offensive and skating skills that are above that of most 4th liners. It's a real testament to the kind of player that he is that come the playoffs, when fighting all but disappears, Eager remains a key player on the Hawks 4th line.
Kopecky has definitely struggled in his transition to the Hawks, but he's a guy who played a role on the last two Cup Finals teams for the Wings (including one winner), so he can definitely get it done. He's got solid size and can play either center or wing, which makes him a valuable flex piece. The hope is that Kopecky will figure it out before long, as his playoff experience would be helpful to a team with only last year's run on its resume.
It's been nice to see Frasier improve his game in so many areas. He'll never be anything of an impact player, but he's getting closer to being a plus in the face-off circle and he's done a very solid job over the last two seasons killing penalties for JQ. I've also been impressed by how Frasier has stepped up into the fighters role for the Hawks with Burish out, Eager concussed, and Wisniewski long since departed. Frasier ended up the odd man out during last year's run and could do so again, but he's definitely getting closer to the point that he could be counted on for solid depth.
In Bickell, I think the Hawks have found themselves another capable role player. I'm not sure if he has any special skills to make him much of an impact guy, but he seems very capable of playing a grinder role. For this year, that might not be necessary, as the Hawks already have a glut of such players. But with the "Great Salary Cull" coming, the Hawks are going to have to replace expensive role players like Buff with cheaper options. Hence, I'm very encouraged that Bickell will be a nice contributor next season.
On the blueline, you've got a pair of defenders who are so good that they could end up a pairing for Team Canada in the Olympics. Again, whether it happens or not is moot - the fact that it's a legit consideration tells you that few, if any, pairings in all of hockey are as good as these guys. And what's most amazing about Keith and Seabrook is that they're also real assets on offense, with Keith regularly leading rushes and Seabrook bringin a heck of a heavy shot from the point. The combination of speed, size, toughness, skill, and defensive awareness make for a really nasty defensive combo that might just be the heart and soul of the Hawks.
Arguably the Hawks biggest step forward from last year has been the establishment of Hjalmarsson as a legit Top 4 stay-at-home defenseman. And the proof is in the play of Campbell. While wrongly hammered for his performance last year (due to unrealistic expectations of uninformed fans), Campbell's game was missing something for a guy believed to be a frontline NHL blueliner.
I mentioned it as a possibility a few times last year, but the Hammer has gone and proven it beyond a doubt this year - all Campbell needed to be that top tier defender was a reliable stay-at-home partner. Plus-minus of the Campbell-HJ pairing? An absurd +27. With both at +13 or better, they lead all Hawks defenders. Throw in 30 points and over 43 minutes a game, and you're looking at a #2 pairing as good as any hockey, absolutely.
Finally, in Barker the Hawks have as good of a #5 defenseman as you'll find out there. The power play specialist was second only to Kane in PP points last year and this year he's already got three PP goals - good for third on the team. Sure Barker's prone to some defensive mistakes and isn't very fleet of foot. But to have that kind of offensive threat out of a non-Top 4 guy is a real asset.
The only thing missing with Barker is what was missing with Campbell - a good stay-at-home defender, preferably with a bit of speed, to bring the best out of him. Unfortunately, he's stuck with a mediocre stay-at-home defender who's slow as mud in Sopel. To me, this is all that's missing from the Hawks' championship puzzle. With such a special team at hand, the Hawks need to take the risk on their future and part with whatever pieces are necessary to acquire a legit stay-at-home type with the speed to capably cover for Barker.
Because while decent enough, Sopel leaves a lot to be desired. He's not facing the top lines from the other team, yet still is the only blueliners whose plus/minus hovers around Even. Just watching Sopel, especially on a team with this much speed, it's clear how slow and lumbering he is. He, like Barker, is also prone to mistakes handling the puck.
However, while I've ridden Sopel hard, he's not as terrible as I first thought. The Hawks can survive with him, as he knows his role and does everything he can to fill it. This is especially true on the penalty kill, where Sopel has been serviceable, which is what you need out of your 6th defender. But the Hawks can definitely improve here - in fact, this may be the only realistic place on the team the Hawks could do so. The idea of another plus defender pairing with Barker to alleviate some of the pressure on the Top 4 while also improving our PK unit has me salivating over our Cup chances.
So get out there and start working the phones - some non-playoff team has to value youngsters more than their veteran defensive defenseman. Find them and make the deal. I don't care if we're risking a bit of our future - this team has a rare chance to win it all, so do everything you can to give yourself the best chance.
And then you've got the goaltenders, probably the biggest factor in determining if we're really dealing with a special hockey team. As a back-up, Niemi has proven himself, in limited action, at least capable of sharing enough of the load to keep the Frenchman fresh. And that's important, because Huet has never been a guy to play 60+ games like some workhorses. With the expectation of another two months of hockey after the regular season (again, something Huet's never done), the Hawks need their back-up goalie to be someone JQ can turn to regularly, especially in this compressed Olympic season. Niemi has shown he is fully capable of lightening Huet's load.
But can he be more, as some are suggesting? Should the Hawks turn over the reigns to this kid who's posted an incredible 4 SHOs and a 1-goal game in only 11 outings? It's intriguing, especially in the NHL, where young goalies often come out of nowhere to carry their teams. But the reality is that Niemi is completely unproven - maybe the book will get out on him. Maybe he's not a guy who can handle the post-season pressure. Or maybe he's injury-prone. The fact is we're still a long way from confidently relying on Niemi as anything more than a stellar back-up, which is all we need him to be right now.
So what about the guy he's backing up, Huet? Honestly, I don't know. He didn't deserve the heat he got at the start of this season. Again, uninformed fans expected too much and were being unrealistic about the decision to turn the reigns over to Huet and let Khabi go. What I found most hysterical is that the fans ripping Huet and calling for Khabi were the EXACT SAME ones who were always ripping Khabi when he was here. Let's not forget that Khabi was put on waivers and went unclaimed before last season, and no one was surprised or bothered by this.
The reality is that Khabi was too injury-prone to rely on, as he showed by going down in in the middle of the Wings series last year (and missing time already this year). Also, Huet is not someone to question in the regular season. He's got a goals against average title on his resume, along with a number of other sterling regular seasons to his credit. Doubting whether he could carry the Hawks to the playoffs just showed a lack of knowledge of the man's abilities.
However, Huet has never gotten it done in the playoffs. Not that he's been some post-season failure - his numbers have been respectable enough. Huet's just never really had much for chances, only getting there a few times in his career and never really doing so behind much of a team. So scarily enough, the second oldest member of the team is actually the guy you wonder most about come the post-season.
But while goaltending is the biggest swing factor in any post-season series, it doesn't operate on an island. Even the hottest goaltender needs good defense in front of him and some timely scoring. Similarly, given great defensive support and an offense that keeps immense pressure on the other team, you can have success with just solid goalie play.
In all, I've got faith that the Hawks offense is potent enough that even if they run into a hot goalie, they'll find a way to solve him enough to sneak out a series victory. And even if Huet doesn't carry them, I can see the Hawks winning it all with just reliable play out of Huet behind stellar defense and an onslaught of offense. It would be far from the first time that just a solid goalie was enough to win the Cup. And who knows - Huet has shown himself capable of great things plenty of times - why can't he get hot and carry us to the Cup?
It's obviously impossible to say what will shake out, but Huet is about as capable as any goalie the Hawks are going to find. And in going back over this team - what they've accomplished these past two and a half season, the kind of players they have on their roster - I'm confident that this Hawks squad has more than enough to win it all. Here's hoping you are too - it'll only make the ride that much more enjoyable.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Start of Something Special (Part I)
Two years ago at this time, it was clear that Hawks were at the start of something special. Toews and Kane had both arrived, both had out-paced the hype, and in doing so, shed light on the fact that quietly the Hawks had put together some other key pieces as well. Players like Havlat, Keith, Seabrook, Sharp, Buff, and Wisniewski all were looking like legit NHL caliber players with their whole careers ahead, and a slew of prospects like Barker, Bolland, Versteeg, and HJ were knocking on the door.
But special is a relative term. At that point, special meant bringing the Hawks back into NHL relevancy. Given what had transpired since they parted ways with Roenick following the 1996 season, being relevant to hockey and the city of Chicago was a pretty special accomplishment.
Right now, I'm starting to think that what we're seeing right now is the start of something even more special - a Stanley Cup winner. One of my buddies had an opportunity to shake hands and take pictures with a few of the Hawks players after the Sharks win in San Jose a month ago. He said it was a bit weird, given that he was older that all but Huet and Madden. But I said that if this team did end up winning it all, he wouldn't think it was weird, he'd be pumped to have had a few minutes with one of the legendary teams in Chicago sports history.
Because that's how it works around here - if you win a title, you become a legend. Pretty much any player to be on a roster of a championship team is a well-known celebrity in this town. The most obvious example is the 85 Bears - most fans could even tell you the two Pro Bowl players who didn't even play that year because they held out (Al Harris and Todd Bell)! Run through all those Bulls championships and excepting a few one-year end-of-the-benchers (Joe Kleine, any one?), who wouldn't remember Jud Buechler and Scott Williams? Ask any Sox fan about Timo Perez or Pablo Ozuna and they'll light up with memories from 2005.
Of course there's a lot of season left and of course the playoffs are a season unto themselves. And of course injuries and hot or cold goalie play can change everything. But man, from what I've seen from these Hawks starting two years ago and progressing straight on through to last night, I'm really starting to believe that this team is gonna be legendary. And not "sometime in the next few years" - I mean this season.
Most of you probably just got really skeptical. That's how it works in Chicago - titles are such rare occurrences that we can't help but doubt they'll actually happen. Chicago teams just never are quite dominant enough, never quite able to avoid some pratfall along the way. And thus, even when a lot of signs point to the kind of team that just might be special, we're conditioned to be skeptical, to believe that someone else out there is superior or will catch better breaks.
Maybe it was the liberation of that 2005 Sox title, but I don't think that way anymore. Don't get me wrong, I'm still a bit skeptical, but more in lines of the natural level any intelligent sports fan displays. It takes a lot of talent, a lot of execution, and a lot of luck to win any major title. But every single year in every single sport, some team does it. If the signs seem to suggest it, why shouldn't I truly believe it'll be my team, this year?
Well, I believe that the Hawks will do it, and they'll do it this year. I see how this Hawks team has dominated this year, all season long. Despite missing loads of good players to injuries, despite missteps from their goaltending. Whether they are at home or on the road, playing in back-to-back games, or most tellingly, facing a scrub team or a fellow Cup contender. Most nights the Hawks are out-shooting their opponents at near a two-to-one rate and controlling every aspect of the game.
Oddly enough, last night's loss probably did as much to convince me of how special this team is as any game I've seen the Hawks play. Remember, the Hawks are in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule - two each versus heated rivals StL and Det, two against the red hot Preds, one each against Cup contenders Boston, San Jose, and New Jersey, and a road trip to Dallas, somewhere the Hawks have struggled... all in a single two and a half week stretch!
They're also coming off an emotional victory over the Wings (depleted roster or not, a home win against the Wings is always emotional). They're facing a highly talented and accomplished Sharks team out for serious vengeance after the embarrassment the Hawks subjected them to in San Jose. And they're missing their #2 center (Bolland), their top power play blueliner (Barker), one of their top PKers (Burish), and their top scoring 4th liner (Eager), while the Sharks are all but at full strength.
So what happened? The Hawks absolutely dominated the game. The Sharks didn't have a single sustained stretch in the Hawks zone until late in the third, against tired Hawks skaters, on a power play. On the other side, the Hawks peppered the San Jose net with 47 shots... and that only counts the ones that hit the goalie. Probably another 15-20 went flying just by the net on good opportunities.
In my eyes, the Hawks were a few lucky bounces, a timely Huet save, and a non-godlike performance from Nabakov away from absolutely destroying the Sharks for the second time this season. In fact, I thought the Hawks dominated the Sharks more last night than they did in that 7-2 blow victory in San Jose. I was at the UC - the entire game was spent either in the Sharks end or in harmless transition. If you didn't know the score or anything about the teams involved, watching the game for any extended period would have made you believe that the Hawks were a superpower and the Sharks an also-ran.
Well, I don't think the Sharks are an also-ran. I don't think they played bad last night. I really just think that this Hawks team is special. I think they've assembled a powerhouse that's near complete in every facet of the game. I think you've got an amazing mix of talent, grit, and execution. And I think you've got the most important factor in professional sports today - incredible hunger.
Top to bottom, only Madden and Kopecky have ever won a Cup. Only Hossa has ever been recognized as an elite player in the NHL. Every one else is hungry to make their mark, eager to show the absolute best hockey player they can be. And perfectly enough, they all seem to understand that the best way to do accomplish such is to do your part to make the team a winner.
Want numeric proof of how good this team is? Until last night, the Hawks were allowing 2 goals a game. No team since the Original Six Era has ever done that for a full season. So this team, through almost half the schedule, has been as good defensively as any team in a generation.
Now think about that - this is not a "defensive" team. They're not the old Devils trap teams, where the whole system is about defense. They're not a scrappy veteran team needing to sneak out a bunch of 2-1 and 1-0 games. This is one of the more potent offensive groups assembled today, with serious scoring punch on all four lines. They are aggressive offensively, sparked by a blue line group that loads up on assists and completed by a glut of impressive scoring options.
And yet somehow they are on pace to set records defensively. That's because they are just so incredibly talented and they are playing so incredibly well that literally anything is possible - even an offensive juggernaut rewriting the defensive record books.
Still not convinced? Check back in on Monday and I'll run through the Blackhawk roster, breaking down player-by-player exactly why you should shrug off years of Chicago-bred sports cynicism and start to believe in what we've got here. My friends, this team has the look of something special - a rare feat in these parts, but that's all the more reason we've got to enjoy every second of the ride.
But special is a relative term. At that point, special meant bringing the Hawks back into NHL relevancy. Given what had transpired since they parted ways with Roenick following the 1996 season, being relevant to hockey and the city of Chicago was a pretty special accomplishment.
Right now, I'm starting to think that what we're seeing right now is the start of something even more special - a Stanley Cup winner. One of my buddies had an opportunity to shake hands and take pictures with a few of the Hawks players after the Sharks win in San Jose a month ago. He said it was a bit weird, given that he was older that all but Huet and Madden. But I said that if this team did end up winning it all, he wouldn't think it was weird, he'd be pumped to have had a few minutes with one of the legendary teams in Chicago sports history.
Because that's how it works around here - if you win a title, you become a legend. Pretty much any player to be on a roster of a championship team is a well-known celebrity in this town. The most obvious example is the 85 Bears - most fans could even tell you the two Pro Bowl players who didn't even play that year because they held out (Al Harris and Todd Bell)! Run through all those Bulls championships and excepting a few one-year end-of-the-benchers (Joe Kleine, any one?), who wouldn't remember Jud Buechler and Scott Williams? Ask any Sox fan about Timo Perez or Pablo Ozuna and they'll light up with memories from 2005.
Of course there's a lot of season left and of course the playoffs are a season unto themselves. And of course injuries and hot or cold goalie play can change everything. But man, from what I've seen from these Hawks starting two years ago and progressing straight on through to last night, I'm really starting to believe that this team is gonna be legendary. And not "sometime in the next few years" - I mean this season.
Most of you probably just got really skeptical. That's how it works in Chicago - titles are such rare occurrences that we can't help but doubt they'll actually happen. Chicago teams just never are quite dominant enough, never quite able to avoid some pratfall along the way. And thus, even when a lot of signs point to the kind of team that just might be special, we're conditioned to be skeptical, to believe that someone else out there is superior or will catch better breaks.
Maybe it was the liberation of that 2005 Sox title, but I don't think that way anymore. Don't get me wrong, I'm still a bit skeptical, but more in lines of the natural level any intelligent sports fan displays. It takes a lot of talent, a lot of execution, and a lot of luck to win any major title. But every single year in every single sport, some team does it. If the signs seem to suggest it, why shouldn't I truly believe it'll be my team, this year?
Well, I believe that the Hawks will do it, and they'll do it this year. I see how this Hawks team has dominated this year, all season long. Despite missing loads of good players to injuries, despite missteps from their goaltending. Whether they are at home or on the road, playing in back-to-back games, or most tellingly, facing a scrub team or a fellow Cup contender. Most nights the Hawks are out-shooting their opponents at near a two-to-one rate and controlling every aspect of the game.
Oddly enough, last night's loss probably did as much to convince me of how special this team is as any game I've seen the Hawks play. Remember, the Hawks are in the midst of a brutal stretch of schedule - two each versus heated rivals StL and Det, two against the red hot Preds, one each against Cup contenders Boston, San Jose, and New Jersey, and a road trip to Dallas, somewhere the Hawks have struggled... all in a single two and a half week stretch!
They're also coming off an emotional victory over the Wings (depleted roster or not, a home win against the Wings is always emotional). They're facing a highly talented and accomplished Sharks team out for serious vengeance after the embarrassment the Hawks subjected them to in San Jose. And they're missing their #2 center (Bolland), their top power play blueliner (Barker), one of their top PKers (Burish), and their top scoring 4th liner (Eager), while the Sharks are all but at full strength.
So what happened? The Hawks absolutely dominated the game. The Sharks didn't have a single sustained stretch in the Hawks zone until late in the third, against tired Hawks skaters, on a power play. On the other side, the Hawks peppered the San Jose net with 47 shots... and that only counts the ones that hit the goalie. Probably another 15-20 went flying just by the net on good opportunities.
In my eyes, the Hawks were a few lucky bounces, a timely Huet save, and a non-godlike performance from Nabakov away from absolutely destroying the Sharks for the second time this season. In fact, I thought the Hawks dominated the Sharks more last night than they did in that 7-2 blow victory in San Jose. I was at the UC - the entire game was spent either in the Sharks end or in harmless transition. If you didn't know the score or anything about the teams involved, watching the game for any extended period would have made you believe that the Hawks were a superpower and the Sharks an also-ran.
Well, I don't think the Sharks are an also-ran. I don't think they played bad last night. I really just think that this Hawks team is special. I think they've assembled a powerhouse that's near complete in every facet of the game. I think you've got an amazing mix of talent, grit, and execution. And I think you've got the most important factor in professional sports today - incredible hunger.
Top to bottom, only Madden and Kopecky have ever won a Cup. Only Hossa has ever been recognized as an elite player in the NHL. Every one else is hungry to make their mark, eager to show the absolute best hockey player they can be. And perfectly enough, they all seem to understand that the best way to do accomplish such is to do your part to make the team a winner.
Want numeric proof of how good this team is? Until last night, the Hawks were allowing 2 goals a game. No team since the Original Six Era has ever done that for a full season. So this team, through almost half the schedule, has been as good defensively as any team in a generation.
Now think about that - this is not a "defensive" team. They're not the old Devils trap teams, where the whole system is about defense. They're not a scrappy veteran team needing to sneak out a bunch of 2-1 and 1-0 games. This is one of the more potent offensive groups assembled today, with serious scoring punch on all four lines. They are aggressive offensively, sparked by a blue line group that loads up on assists and completed by a glut of impressive scoring options.
And yet somehow they are on pace to set records defensively. That's because they are just so incredibly talented and they are playing so incredibly well that literally anything is possible - even an offensive juggernaut rewriting the defensive record books.
Still not convinced? Check back in on Monday and I'll run through the Blackhawk roster, breaking down player-by-player exactly why you should shrug off years of Chicago-bred sports cynicism and start to believe in what we've got here. My friends, this team has the look of something special - a rare feat in these parts, but that's all the more reason we've got to enjoy every second of the ride.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Knowing the Numbers - Team Stats
With 29 games down (just over 1/3 of the schedule), it's not a bad time to take a look at some of the key team stats and see how the Hawks stack up so far.
On pace for about 116 points, the Hawks actually are the top team in the West. However, with 16 home dates in the books to only 13 roadies, that's probably skewed a little high. Still, given all the injuries, the domination at home (12-3-1), and that stellar West Coast swing's effect on the road record (7-4-2), I'd say the Hawks have shown what we all hoped they would - that they're one of the premier teams in the West and a legit Cup contender.
Averaging three goals per game, the Hawks are a Top 10 offense. Given all their firepower, you'd think they'd be a bit higher, especially because their PP% is in the Top 10. One factor keeping them from the truly elite ranks - they've had the 2nd fewest power play opportunities in the entire league. Now that is very odd given how they control the puck and are so offensively dangerous.
Does that mean the refs have something out for the Hawks? I'm never a fan of those kind of theories, as what possible reason could they have for such? If your team has a reputation as being physical, or if you've got a bunch of veteran stars, or are unproven kids, then maybe the refs will be swayed for or against you. But the Hawks are an established team without any negative attitude or style of play - they shouldn't register with the refs one way or the other. Plus, the Hawks are the 4th least penalized team in the league - that kinda eliminates any thought of bias right there.
More likely the lack of penalty chances is a trend that will to some extent reverse itself over time, but also is probably suggestive that the Hawks need to be a bit more aggressive and a bit tougher in their attack. But that does make sense, as the team has essentially been without a top winger and a top centerman nearly the whole year, given the time Hossa, Toews, and Bolland have collectively missed.
Once Hossa is up to full speed and Bolland is returned to form, offense shouldn't be much of a worry. Even as it is now, the Hawks are third in the league in shots per game. As the Hawks return to full strength, they'll have even more shots, draw more penalties, and convert more goals. There's as much offensive talent on this club as probably at any time in history and I think they'll get plenty of goals out of it when all is said and done.
At 2.24 goals against per game, the Hawks are a Top 3 defense. That number is probably the one I'd pay the most attention to, Hawks fans. First off, in hockey, like everywhere else, defense wins championships. Things close down a ton during the playoffs, so being able to keep the puck out of your own net is the key to advancement.
This number is also telling in that a lot of fans had some goalie jitters entering this season, after the previously beleaguered Khabi signed with Edmonton (where he's been nothing special and now is having a very slow time recovering from a back injury - as I've said before, good riddance!). When Huet struggled badly out of the gate, everyone and their sister was all set to put the guy on the first flight back to Charles De Gaulle.
But as I tried to tell you, Huet has always been a strong regular season goalie. He's got a long resume of Top 5 or 10 finishes in GAA and Sv %, including a season in which he lead the league in GAA. So until we hit the playoffs (where Huet hasn't been bad, just has never really been on a team to do much), feel good about this man. And feel good about his back-up, Niemi, who might just be the goalie of the future he was heralded as. And maybe most importantly, feel good about the guys playing in front of them.
This both means the blueliners and the forwards. Because no group in the entire NHL is doing a better job keeping pucks off their goaltenders than the Hawks. In fact, Hawks' goalies see 2.5 fewer shots per game than the 2nd best team in the league. And about 5 or 6 fewer shots than the league average. Those are nasty impressive numbers.
They're even more impressive when combined with the way the offense blisters so many shots of their own - in all, the Hawks have by far the largest shot differential in the league. Now that is a stat that will win you a lot of hockey games, in the regular season and playoffs. Throw in a near Top 5 PK unit that, as stated above, has to kill off some of the least amount of penalties in the league, and you can really start feeling good about how the Hawks have played in their own end.
In all, pretty much every single classic team metric backs up what we've all been seeing for ourselves this season - that the Hawks are a very good hockey team in all facets of the game. And after tonight's tilt in Buffalo, the Hawks will go nearly two-for-one in home games to roadies until they leave on a brutal 8-games-in-15 days trip in mid-January. That's a whole lot of home cooking to fatten up on until then, pushing their numbers even further into the realm of a great hockey team. And with the way the Stadium rocks these days, earning home ice advantage throughout the playoffs is a significant achievement we all should be pulling for.
On pace for about 116 points, the Hawks actually are the top team in the West. However, with 16 home dates in the books to only 13 roadies, that's probably skewed a little high. Still, given all the injuries, the domination at home (12-3-1), and that stellar West Coast swing's effect on the road record (7-4-2), I'd say the Hawks have shown what we all hoped they would - that they're one of the premier teams in the West and a legit Cup contender.
Averaging three goals per game, the Hawks are a Top 10 offense. Given all their firepower, you'd think they'd be a bit higher, especially because their PP% is in the Top 10. One factor keeping them from the truly elite ranks - they've had the 2nd fewest power play opportunities in the entire league. Now that is very odd given how they control the puck and are so offensively dangerous.
Does that mean the refs have something out for the Hawks? I'm never a fan of those kind of theories, as what possible reason could they have for such? If your team has a reputation as being physical, or if you've got a bunch of veteran stars, or are unproven kids, then maybe the refs will be swayed for or against you. But the Hawks are an established team without any negative attitude or style of play - they shouldn't register with the refs one way or the other. Plus, the Hawks are the 4th least penalized team in the league - that kinda eliminates any thought of bias right there.
More likely the lack of penalty chances is a trend that will to some extent reverse itself over time, but also is probably suggestive that the Hawks need to be a bit more aggressive and a bit tougher in their attack. But that does make sense, as the team has essentially been without a top winger and a top centerman nearly the whole year, given the time Hossa, Toews, and Bolland have collectively missed.
Once Hossa is up to full speed and Bolland is returned to form, offense shouldn't be much of a worry. Even as it is now, the Hawks are third in the league in shots per game. As the Hawks return to full strength, they'll have even more shots, draw more penalties, and convert more goals. There's as much offensive talent on this club as probably at any time in history and I think they'll get plenty of goals out of it when all is said and done.
At 2.24 goals against per game, the Hawks are a Top 3 defense. That number is probably the one I'd pay the most attention to, Hawks fans. First off, in hockey, like everywhere else, defense wins championships. Things close down a ton during the playoffs, so being able to keep the puck out of your own net is the key to advancement.
This number is also telling in that a lot of fans had some goalie jitters entering this season, after the previously beleaguered Khabi signed with Edmonton (where he's been nothing special and now is having a very slow time recovering from a back injury - as I've said before, good riddance!). When Huet struggled badly out of the gate, everyone and their sister was all set to put the guy on the first flight back to Charles De Gaulle.
But as I tried to tell you, Huet has always been a strong regular season goalie. He's got a long resume of Top 5 or 10 finishes in GAA and Sv %, including a season in which he lead the league in GAA. So until we hit the playoffs (where Huet hasn't been bad, just has never really been on a team to do much), feel good about this man. And feel good about his back-up, Niemi, who might just be the goalie of the future he was heralded as. And maybe most importantly, feel good about the guys playing in front of them.
This both means the blueliners and the forwards. Because no group in the entire NHL is doing a better job keeping pucks off their goaltenders than the Hawks. In fact, Hawks' goalies see 2.5 fewer shots per game than the 2nd best team in the league. And about 5 or 6 fewer shots than the league average. Those are nasty impressive numbers.
They're even more impressive when combined with the way the offense blisters so many shots of their own - in all, the Hawks have by far the largest shot differential in the league. Now that is a stat that will win you a lot of hockey games, in the regular season and playoffs. Throw in a near Top 5 PK unit that, as stated above, has to kill off some of the least amount of penalties in the league, and you can really start feeling good about how the Hawks have played in their own end.
In all, pretty much every single classic team metric backs up what we've all been seeing for ourselves this season - that the Hawks are a very good hockey team in all facets of the game. And after tonight's tilt in Buffalo, the Hawks will go nearly two-for-one in home games to roadies until they leave on a brutal 8-games-in-15 days trip in mid-January. That's a whole lot of home cooking to fatten up on until then, pushing their numbers even further into the realm of a great hockey team. And with the way the Stadium rocks these days, earning home ice advantage throughout the playoffs is a significant achievement we all should be pulling for.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Quarter Post
It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, so I figure you've got nothing better to do than read about 3,500 words on the Hawks. Especially with them playing so well and Hossa about to enter the mix, hopefully you're like me and looking to take in as much of the Hawks as you can right now.
So, with one fourth of the schedule in the books, here's my four-part take on some of the biggest stories and important numbers thus far:
1 - "THE GREAT SALARY CULL OF 2010"
I stole this phrasing from one of the Hawks' blogs I follow, but of course now can't remember which. I owe them credit and am sorry for not being able to give it specifically, so I'll just provide a run-down of all the blogs I frequent instead:
-ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers - longtime Score guy and Blackhawks pre- and post-gamer, he provides a nice mix of lockerroom insight and typical blog commentary - something that is far too rare. Definitely worth following.
-SecondCityHockey.com - these guys are responsible for "The Committed Indian" the admirable torch-carrier for the old "Blue Line." Great mix of comedy, insight, and analytics on their website - I only just started reading them with regularity and wish I had done so sooner.
-DailyHerald.com's Tim Sassone - none of the three local papers have a true Hawks blog that provides real commentary, instead they're all content with beat writers giving you quick blurbs on the latest news from the lockerroom. That stuff is interesting and all, but I'd like to have someone taking that info a step further and providing some conjecture and analysis. Oh well, I guess there's a reason newspapers are dying. As it is, Sassone provides the most regular and informed updates of the group, so definitely worth checking in there to see about line set-ups, player health, transactions, etc. My favorite national hockey site (Yahoo's Puck Daddy) regularly links to the Herald for its Hawk news, so that should tell you something.
-ChicagoNow.com's Jay Zawaski - another longtime Score guy (producer extraordinaire), JZ gives you a lighter, casual take. I was particularly won over by his post detailing hockey etiquette for all the initiated bandwagon Hawks fans. I'm no Hawks fan snob and am glad to have the team expand beyond its cult following, but I also respect the team and the game and appreciate someone trying to help others do the same.
Ok, back to the Salary Cull. First and foremost, we can all rest easy that Kane, Toews, and Keith will be with the Hawks for a long time. I know people love to scream about how the sky is falling, but there was no way any of these guys were ever going anywhere. Toews and Kane didn't get the lifetime contracts this time, but unless one of them really hits the skids, they'll get it come the end of the impending 5-year deal.
Now we can throw away the nonsensical discussions of one of them not coming back and instead focus on the very real fact that their signings will necessitate the prematurely end of a few Hawks' careers. At one point I made the statement that these extensions wouldn't affect the make-up of the team this year, because they wouldn't go on the books this year, and thus people we're idiots for worrying about who the Hawks would have to move immediately upon signing those extensions.
The moral of the story - don't ever make declaratory statements about the NHL cap. Turns out that the cap system, among a million other things, dictates that you can only commit up to a certain amount of salary for the following season (the actual limit is complicated, but it's in the ballpark of whatever the current year's limit is). Thus, the Hawks will be affected this year by the extensions.
The most obvious move seems to be getting rid of Brent Sopel, a guy who brings little to the table and kills your cap flexibility this year and next with his $2.3M hit. As the clear 6th defenseman, he's a luxury the Hawks simply can't afford.
Unfortunately, as a mediocre (at best) defenseman making $2.3M this year and next, I doubt Sopel is a luxury many other teams can afford either. However, the Hawks might just be able to get out from under him by sweetening the deal with a prospect or simply finding a team desperate for blue line help who views Sopel's remaining deal as short and reasonable enough for a veteran defender.
Personally I hope they don't have to part with any prospect who could end up contributing at the NHL level. I'm not worried about losing a good prospect, just the reality that the Hawks roster over the next few seasons will feature a number of youngsters because the Hawks won't be able to afford anything else. So let's hope there's some other way to make the horrendously ugly and unskilled Sopel attractive to some other team.
Once Sopel's gone and the extensions are signed, then the attention will turn to who goes this off-season. You know what? I don't care right now. This team is amazingly talented and aside Sopel, I pretty much love everyone on the roster. Even you, Troy Brouwer (more on that later). My buddy and I were talking that in 20 years we'll look back at this squad and be amazed by the number of studs all on one team.
So I'm not gonna spend much more of this season worrying about the off-season - we'll have plenty of time for that. I'm just gonna enjoy this mix we have and see how far it can take us.
2. HOW GOOD ARE THEY?
It's hard to look at one section of the season and predict with confidence what the rest of the year will look like. Teams go through ups and downs, injuries take their tolls, and late season deals can change a lot. Scheduling is a factor, as is age and experience.
Still, I do think what we've seen from the Hawks is pretty damn encouraging. Yes, we've played a boatload of home games, with 12 of our 20 taking place at the UC (technically the opening night SOL in Finland was a home game as well, while the OT W the next night was a road game, but I'm not counting either in my home-away analysis).
But in those 12 home games, we've gone 10-2. That's pretty nasty, especially given that we've played a solid slate of opponents along the way. And with this great 3-0 start to the Circus Trip (again, against good opponents), the Hawks are sitting at 4-3-1 on the road, definitely respectable.
Our Power Play unit is right near the Top 10, our PK in and out of the top spot, and both our goals for and against floating around the Top 5. That's some damn impressive hockey.
But what I like most? We've done all this while facing more than our fair share of injuries. As we'll soon find out, losing Hossa has been a MAJOR blow. It's been easy to forget that as we never had him to begin with, but remember that this guy might just be better than anyone the Hawks have - Kane, Toews, Keith - all of them. Hossa has certainly accomplished more already, and while it remains to be seen how important he is to the team dynamic, strictly from a talent level of their games today, Hossa probably is the Hawks top player.
So everything we've accomplished so far has been done without our best guy. Wow. Throw in the games that Toews and Bolland (our top 2 centers) missed, as well as Eager and Burish (two of the better 4th liners in hockey) and you start to think that as good as we've been, it's not only possible, but likely that we'll be better.
Having said all that, talent on paper and delivering on the ice are two very different things. As is delivering in the regular season and doing it in pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. The Hawks seemed to show last year that they are far more like the Wings (strong in the regular season, even better in the playoffs) than the Sharks (amazing in the regular season, paper tigers in the playoffs). But one year and a few series victories aren't enough. This Hawks team needs to show it can capitalize on its absurd collection of talent and hang a post-season banner in the UC.
Honestly, given the Cull that's coming, I've changed my view from wanting to make the Finals to wanting the whole damn thing. The sports landscape is littered with players who won or contended for a title when they were young, believing they were part of a dynasty and would have that sort of success their whole careers. Far too many of them never reach the promised land again.
Yes we're young, but the time to win it all is now, and there's no guarantee our window will ever get wider, if not slam shut next year. Sports are unpredictable that way, so for 2009-2010, I'm officially in the Cup-or-Bust camp.
3. FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS FIGURE
Sure that line is a bit folksy, but it's also a nice piece of wisdom to keep in mind when dealing with the stat-infested world of today's sports.
Case in point - Brouwer and Ladd. Everyone talks about how valuable they are, how they help in so many facets of the game, how multi-talented they are. There's such an appreciation of their under-appreciated qualities that it's easy to forget their true role on the team.
While it's not an exact science, I'm a big fan of the ATOI stat (Average Time On Ice). JQ's not perfect, but he knows he's coaching for his life (because of the incredible expectations this team has engendered), so he's going to be playing the guys that give him the best chance to win as much as he possibly can. Things certainly have evolved as the year has progressed, but still, the numbers through the first 22 games have to mean something:
-Stars - Bolland (19:23), Kane (19:14), Toews (18:42), Sharp (18:02), Versteeg (17:57)
Is there any surprise to that list? Bolland's numbers are probably slightly elevated and Toews' a bit depressed due to Toews' injury. Other than that, those are clearly your Top 5 forwards and they're on the ice as such. The guy I point to is Sharp - he's making closer to $4M than the $3M a lot of the other forwards are getting, but his ice time is also more in line with that of the $6M+ guys Kane, Toews, and soon Hossa. His numbers also put him more in line with those guys, which makes you wonder if he's actually a salary value and someone the Hawks need to find a way to keep around.
-Role Players - Madden (16:49), Buff (16:40), Brouwer (15:20), Ladd (13:15)
As if we couldn't tell this from what he's done already - aside the stars, Madden is as valuable of a forward as we have. And it's not even the playoffs yet, when JQ will get all match-up happy and quick shift all over to keep Madden out against their top line. But what surprised me here is the fact that Buff is getting so much more ice time than Brouwer, when supposedly Brouwer has passed up Buff, and that Ladd is so far back of both guys, when he was supposed to be the most polished second tier guy.
In fairness, as I said, recent trends show Buff getting less time and Brouwer more, but while Brouwer has most certainly elevated his play from worthless to productive, he's not quite the all-around role player some are making him out to be. And the numbers back that up - his 6 G and 5 A are very solid, but 4 of those goals have come on the power play. Now that itself speaks to his value, as does his high hit total, but Brouwer is still just Even on the year w/o much for even strength scoring.
I'm no Buff fan, but given his -4 and the continued inconsistent play, the fact that he's still logging the same or more ice time than Brouwer says that Brouwer's got some work left to do. However, I 100% have to admit that coupled with Bolland's emergence, I've learned not to judge guys for failing to make an impact in their first years. Similarly, if a guy doesn't seem to be doing much but the coach keeps playing him, that probably means it's just a matter of time before he does.
Both Bolland and Brouwer frustrated me with their inability to make any real impact as rookies, despite significant ice time. But now both have played themselves into valuable roles on the club, with Bolland a legit scoring line center and Brouwer a legit supporting cast member. So while I'm not gonna go overboard like the hype machine that's behind Brouwer now, I will definitely say that he's established himself as a productive player and someone who could develop into a key component to a title team. I didn't think I'd ever say this, but Brouwer could be on his way to being a guy I'm very glad to have around.
Another guy who's already achieved that distinction is Ladd, but his ATOI doesn't seem to bakc that up. Remember, this is a Hawks team that's had to play a lot of garbage forwards because of all the injuries. So how has Ladd not profited from more time? Is it something as simple as Ladd not having the legs to carry more minutes? Or does he just not fit well on special teams (I noticed last year that while everyone loved him defensively, Ladd never played on the PK)? Or is Ladd not as strong as we thought after last year's break-out?
That last question will be answered this off-season, when Ladd is up to make some decent money just as the Hawks are trying to cut salary. Will Ladd be a nice value buy once we're forced to dump Sharp, Buff, Barker, etc or will he be one of the first causalities, replaced by a minimum salaried journeyman or rook?
I've always liked Ladd and found him a good mix of talents to compliment any line. But his lack of PT suggests that maybe he's not doing as much as I first thought, or that he's taking something off the table as often as he's bringing it. I'm gonna pay extra attention to him and see if I can't get a better idea of how valuable he is. While the numbers don't tell you everything, Ladd has followed up his +13 in 07-08 and +26 in 08-09 with a very pretty +7 this year. Doesn't that sound like a guy you want to both keep around and give a good deal of minutes too? It sure does to me, which makes me wonder why JQ doesn't trust him on the ice more.
Finally, a name you don't see on my TOI lists is Kopecky, who so far seems to be a disappointment. Not that the expectations were ever to great for this kid, whose never been one to fill the stat sheet. But there was some thinking that he'd elevate from a 4th liner to a legit role player. The fact that he's logging the same minutes as the Ebbetts, Frasiers, Eagers, and Bickells of the world suggests otherwise. As does Kopecky's -5, worst on the club and approached only by Buff (-4) and Sopel (-3), two of the Hawk's least impressive players.
In fact, with a $1.2m cap hit this year and next, it's possible that Kopecky could be gone, maybe even this season. Brian Bickell has drawn some pretty rave reviews during his recent call-up (cut short due to the arrival of Hossa) - isn't it possible the Hawks would prefer his $500k salary this year (and probably the same next year) given how tight the books are? Be it in an effort to sign those extensions, make a deadline trade, or make room next off-season?
Kopecky does have size, can play both wing and center, and comes from a great franchise where he won a Cup. So the hope is that he will get it figured out and be a contributor. But if not, don't be surprised if Kopecky is a salary cap causality, maybe even this year.
PAINT BY NUMBERS
So what other numbers might provide us some insight?
-How about the fact that Barker and Sopel log only around 14 minutes a night each, but count a combined $5.4M against the cap this year and next? Good defenseman get around 20 minutes a game (as Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and HJ all do). Down at 14? You're nothing but a depth guy.
Now with 4 G and 7 A (3 and 3 on the PP), an Even plus/minus, and his youth, Barker can be justified this season as a luxury item they can afford. He's got rare offensive skills that make up for his weaknesses and allow him to be a valuable role player.
But Sopel? Give his minutes to Hendry and you won't see a reduction in anything but your salary cap. And they don't have to cut Sopel to lose his contract for cap purposes - putting him on waivers and then farming him out (if no other team claims him) removes his number from the books (although the Hawks still have to pay the bill, they don't get cap penalized for it).
Is there any way this guy is not now spending his last days in a Hawks uni?
-Kane's 23 points in 22 games suggest he's gone from really good to near-great. A point a game is the measure of a true star and given that he's rarely got to skate with either Toews or Hossa, you gotta believe his stat line will only get better. In the meantime, be equally as impressed by his +8 - the kid is really starting to become a force.
-Sharp's 6 goals in 22 games are well below the 30+ pace he's shown the past two seasons, but look deeper and you see that he's more than made up for it with 13 assists and a +7. The way he always adjusts his game to what the Hawks have needed tells me this is definitely a guy you want to keep around. Buff, Ladd, Barker, Kopecky, Sopel - that's where you cut your payroll. Not in Sharp, who's a bona fide Top 6 guy, a real leader, and as flexible as any frontline forward you'll find.
-Buff has 7 goals (2nd on the team to Kane), only 2 assists, and is a -4. I figured he'd be an absolute beast with the motivation of making Team USA, and while he's filled the net, I just think he's always going to be an enigma. He's playing well enough to still have significant trade value, so my hope is that this off-season, he's one of the first to go. In the meantime, Buff's got his work cut-out to avoid being pushed back to the 4th line when Bolland returns (as Brouwer and Ladd both look more deserving of winging Madden on the checking line).
-Keith (18 points, +8, 26:31 ATOI), Campbell (14 points, +7, 23:55 ATOI), Seabrook (10 points, +11, 23:51 ATOI), The Hammer (5 points, +6, 20:02 ATOI). Wow. Just look at those numbers. The emergence of The Hammer coupled with the stabilization of Campbell (those things are almost 100% related, by the way) has given the Hawks a Top 4 defensive unit as good as any. The difference between the Hawks team shots for and against are absurd - some of the best in the NHL by a longshot. These four guys deserve the lion's share of the credit for that.
-Toews (60.1%), Madden (57.4%), Frasier (51.9%), and Bolland (49.8%) have given the Hawks one of the best face-off groups in the NHL. All four guys are doing better than expected. Toews has long been good, but 60% is the gold standard. Madden has always been a plus in the face-off circle, but generally in the 52-55% range, not over 57%. Frasier might just be playing himself into a play-off role (something he didn't earn last year) by jumping from a face-off liability to an asset. And Bolland has shrunk the gap of his losses to the point where he's basically a wash.
Sure, the Hawks will struggle with whichever non-center (Versteeg, Sharp, Kopecky?) is forced to play out of position while Bolland is out. But JQ can limit that by having three different centers he can confidently throw into the face-off circle after every whistle. Come playoff time, winning more face-offs than you lose - especially in key situations - becomes a significant factor to success.
In all, I'm feeling damn good about where these Hawks are and where they're going. Let's hope we're soon talking about the official extensions and the equally joyful end of the Sopel era.
So, with one fourth of the schedule in the books, here's my four-part take on some of the biggest stories and important numbers thus far:
1 - "THE GREAT SALARY CULL OF 2010"
I stole this phrasing from one of the Hawks' blogs I follow, but of course now can't remember which. I owe them credit and am sorry for not being able to give it specifically, so I'll just provide a run-down of all the blogs I frequent instead:
-ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers - longtime Score guy and Blackhawks pre- and post-gamer, he provides a nice mix of lockerroom insight and typical blog commentary - something that is far too rare. Definitely worth following.
-SecondCityHockey.com - these guys are responsible for "The Committed Indian" the admirable torch-carrier for the old "Blue Line." Great mix of comedy, insight, and analytics on their website - I only just started reading them with regularity and wish I had done so sooner.
-DailyHerald.com's Tim Sassone - none of the three local papers have a true Hawks blog that provides real commentary, instead they're all content with beat writers giving you quick blurbs on the latest news from the lockerroom. That stuff is interesting and all, but I'd like to have someone taking that info a step further and providing some conjecture and analysis. Oh well, I guess there's a reason newspapers are dying. As it is, Sassone provides the most regular and informed updates of the group, so definitely worth checking in there to see about line set-ups, player health, transactions, etc. My favorite national hockey site (Yahoo's Puck Daddy) regularly links to the Herald for its Hawk news, so that should tell you something.
-ChicagoNow.com's Jay Zawaski - another longtime Score guy (producer extraordinaire), JZ gives you a lighter, casual take. I was particularly won over by his post detailing hockey etiquette for all the initiated bandwagon Hawks fans. I'm no Hawks fan snob and am glad to have the team expand beyond its cult following, but I also respect the team and the game and appreciate someone trying to help others do the same.
Ok, back to the Salary Cull. First and foremost, we can all rest easy that Kane, Toews, and Keith will be with the Hawks for a long time. I know people love to scream about how the sky is falling, but there was no way any of these guys were ever going anywhere. Toews and Kane didn't get the lifetime contracts this time, but unless one of them really hits the skids, they'll get it come the end of the impending 5-year deal.
Now we can throw away the nonsensical discussions of one of them not coming back and instead focus on the very real fact that their signings will necessitate the prematurely end of a few Hawks' careers. At one point I made the statement that these extensions wouldn't affect the make-up of the team this year, because they wouldn't go on the books this year, and thus people we're idiots for worrying about who the Hawks would have to move immediately upon signing those extensions.
The moral of the story - don't ever make declaratory statements about the NHL cap. Turns out that the cap system, among a million other things, dictates that you can only commit up to a certain amount of salary for the following season (the actual limit is complicated, but it's in the ballpark of whatever the current year's limit is). Thus, the Hawks will be affected this year by the extensions.
The most obvious move seems to be getting rid of Brent Sopel, a guy who brings little to the table and kills your cap flexibility this year and next with his $2.3M hit. As the clear 6th defenseman, he's a luxury the Hawks simply can't afford.
Unfortunately, as a mediocre (at best) defenseman making $2.3M this year and next, I doubt Sopel is a luxury many other teams can afford either. However, the Hawks might just be able to get out from under him by sweetening the deal with a prospect or simply finding a team desperate for blue line help who views Sopel's remaining deal as short and reasonable enough for a veteran defender.
Personally I hope they don't have to part with any prospect who could end up contributing at the NHL level. I'm not worried about losing a good prospect, just the reality that the Hawks roster over the next few seasons will feature a number of youngsters because the Hawks won't be able to afford anything else. So let's hope there's some other way to make the horrendously ugly and unskilled Sopel attractive to some other team.
Once Sopel's gone and the extensions are signed, then the attention will turn to who goes this off-season. You know what? I don't care right now. This team is amazingly talented and aside Sopel, I pretty much love everyone on the roster. Even you, Troy Brouwer (more on that later). My buddy and I were talking that in 20 years we'll look back at this squad and be amazed by the number of studs all on one team.
So I'm not gonna spend much more of this season worrying about the off-season - we'll have plenty of time for that. I'm just gonna enjoy this mix we have and see how far it can take us.
2. HOW GOOD ARE THEY?
It's hard to look at one section of the season and predict with confidence what the rest of the year will look like. Teams go through ups and downs, injuries take their tolls, and late season deals can change a lot. Scheduling is a factor, as is age and experience.
Still, I do think what we've seen from the Hawks is pretty damn encouraging. Yes, we've played a boatload of home games, with 12 of our 20 taking place at the UC (technically the opening night SOL in Finland was a home game as well, while the OT W the next night was a road game, but I'm not counting either in my home-away analysis).
But in those 12 home games, we've gone 10-2. That's pretty nasty, especially given that we've played a solid slate of opponents along the way. And with this great 3-0 start to the Circus Trip (again, against good opponents), the Hawks are sitting at 4-3-1 on the road, definitely respectable.
Our Power Play unit is right near the Top 10, our PK in and out of the top spot, and both our goals for and against floating around the Top 5. That's some damn impressive hockey.
But what I like most? We've done all this while facing more than our fair share of injuries. As we'll soon find out, losing Hossa has been a MAJOR blow. It's been easy to forget that as we never had him to begin with, but remember that this guy might just be better than anyone the Hawks have - Kane, Toews, Keith - all of them. Hossa has certainly accomplished more already, and while it remains to be seen how important he is to the team dynamic, strictly from a talent level of their games today, Hossa probably is the Hawks top player.
So everything we've accomplished so far has been done without our best guy. Wow. Throw in the games that Toews and Bolland (our top 2 centers) missed, as well as Eager and Burish (two of the better 4th liners in hockey) and you start to think that as good as we've been, it's not only possible, but likely that we'll be better.
Having said all that, talent on paper and delivering on the ice are two very different things. As is delivering in the regular season and doing it in pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. The Hawks seemed to show last year that they are far more like the Wings (strong in the regular season, even better in the playoffs) than the Sharks (amazing in the regular season, paper tigers in the playoffs). But one year and a few series victories aren't enough. This Hawks team needs to show it can capitalize on its absurd collection of talent and hang a post-season banner in the UC.
Honestly, given the Cull that's coming, I've changed my view from wanting to make the Finals to wanting the whole damn thing. The sports landscape is littered with players who won or contended for a title when they were young, believing they were part of a dynasty and would have that sort of success their whole careers. Far too many of them never reach the promised land again.
Yes we're young, but the time to win it all is now, and there's no guarantee our window will ever get wider, if not slam shut next year. Sports are unpredictable that way, so for 2009-2010, I'm officially in the Cup-or-Bust camp.
3. FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS FIGURE
Sure that line is a bit folksy, but it's also a nice piece of wisdom to keep in mind when dealing with the stat-infested world of today's sports.
Case in point - Brouwer and Ladd. Everyone talks about how valuable they are, how they help in so many facets of the game, how multi-talented they are. There's such an appreciation of their under-appreciated qualities that it's easy to forget their true role on the team.
While it's not an exact science, I'm a big fan of the ATOI stat (Average Time On Ice). JQ's not perfect, but he knows he's coaching for his life (because of the incredible expectations this team has engendered), so he's going to be playing the guys that give him the best chance to win as much as he possibly can. Things certainly have evolved as the year has progressed, but still, the numbers through the first 22 games have to mean something:
-Stars - Bolland (19:23), Kane (19:14), Toews (18:42), Sharp (18:02), Versteeg (17:57)
Is there any surprise to that list? Bolland's numbers are probably slightly elevated and Toews' a bit depressed due to Toews' injury. Other than that, those are clearly your Top 5 forwards and they're on the ice as such. The guy I point to is Sharp - he's making closer to $4M than the $3M a lot of the other forwards are getting, but his ice time is also more in line with that of the $6M+ guys Kane, Toews, and soon Hossa. His numbers also put him more in line with those guys, which makes you wonder if he's actually a salary value and someone the Hawks need to find a way to keep around.
-Role Players - Madden (16:49), Buff (16:40), Brouwer (15:20), Ladd (13:15)
As if we couldn't tell this from what he's done already - aside the stars, Madden is as valuable of a forward as we have. And it's not even the playoffs yet, when JQ will get all match-up happy and quick shift all over to keep Madden out against their top line. But what surprised me here is the fact that Buff is getting so much more ice time than Brouwer, when supposedly Brouwer has passed up Buff, and that Ladd is so far back of both guys, when he was supposed to be the most polished second tier guy.
In fairness, as I said, recent trends show Buff getting less time and Brouwer more, but while Brouwer has most certainly elevated his play from worthless to productive, he's not quite the all-around role player some are making him out to be. And the numbers back that up - his 6 G and 5 A are very solid, but 4 of those goals have come on the power play. Now that itself speaks to his value, as does his high hit total, but Brouwer is still just Even on the year w/o much for even strength scoring.
I'm no Buff fan, but given his -4 and the continued inconsistent play, the fact that he's still logging the same or more ice time than Brouwer says that Brouwer's got some work left to do. However, I 100% have to admit that coupled with Bolland's emergence, I've learned not to judge guys for failing to make an impact in their first years. Similarly, if a guy doesn't seem to be doing much but the coach keeps playing him, that probably means it's just a matter of time before he does.
Both Bolland and Brouwer frustrated me with their inability to make any real impact as rookies, despite significant ice time. But now both have played themselves into valuable roles on the club, with Bolland a legit scoring line center and Brouwer a legit supporting cast member. So while I'm not gonna go overboard like the hype machine that's behind Brouwer now, I will definitely say that he's established himself as a productive player and someone who could develop into a key component to a title team. I didn't think I'd ever say this, but Brouwer could be on his way to being a guy I'm very glad to have around.
Another guy who's already achieved that distinction is Ladd, but his ATOI doesn't seem to bakc that up. Remember, this is a Hawks team that's had to play a lot of garbage forwards because of all the injuries. So how has Ladd not profited from more time? Is it something as simple as Ladd not having the legs to carry more minutes? Or does he just not fit well on special teams (I noticed last year that while everyone loved him defensively, Ladd never played on the PK)? Or is Ladd not as strong as we thought after last year's break-out?
That last question will be answered this off-season, when Ladd is up to make some decent money just as the Hawks are trying to cut salary. Will Ladd be a nice value buy once we're forced to dump Sharp, Buff, Barker, etc or will he be one of the first causalities, replaced by a minimum salaried journeyman or rook?
I've always liked Ladd and found him a good mix of talents to compliment any line. But his lack of PT suggests that maybe he's not doing as much as I first thought, or that he's taking something off the table as often as he's bringing it. I'm gonna pay extra attention to him and see if I can't get a better idea of how valuable he is. While the numbers don't tell you everything, Ladd has followed up his +13 in 07-08 and +26 in 08-09 with a very pretty +7 this year. Doesn't that sound like a guy you want to both keep around and give a good deal of minutes too? It sure does to me, which makes me wonder why JQ doesn't trust him on the ice more.
Finally, a name you don't see on my TOI lists is Kopecky, who so far seems to be a disappointment. Not that the expectations were ever to great for this kid, whose never been one to fill the stat sheet. But there was some thinking that he'd elevate from a 4th liner to a legit role player. The fact that he's logging the same minutes as the Ebbetts, Frasiers, Eagers, and Bickells of the world suggests otherwise. As does Kopecky's -5, worst on the club and approached only by Buff (-4) and Sopel (-3), two of the Hawk's least impressive players.
In fact, with a $1.2m cap hit this year and next, it's possible that Kopecky could be gone, maybe even this season. Brian Bickell has drawn some pretty rave reviews during his recent call-up (cut short due to the arrival of Hossa) - isn't it possible the Hawks would prefer his $500k salary this year (and probably the same next year) given how tight the books are? Be it in an effort to sign those extensions, make a deadline trade, or make room next off-season?
Kopecky does have size, can play both wing and center, and comes from a great franchise where he won a Cup. So the hope is that he will get it figured out and be a contributor. But if not, don't be surprised if Kopecky is a salary cap causality, maybe even this year.
PAINT BY NUMBERS
So what other numbers might provide us some insight?
-How about the fact that Barker and Sopel log only around 14 minutes a night each, but count a combined $5.4M against the cap this year and next? Good defenseman get around 20 minutes a game (as Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and HJ all do). Down at 14? You're nothing but a depth guy.
Now with 4 G and 7 A (3 and 3 on the PP), an Even plus/minus, and his youth, Barker can be justified this season as a luxury item they can afford. He's got rare offensive skills that make up for his weaknesses and allow him to be a valuable role player.
But Sopel? Give his minutes to Hendry and you won't see a reduction in anything but your salary cap. And they don't have to cut Sopel to lose his contract for cap purposes - putting him on waivers and then farming him out (if no other team claims him) removes his number from the books (although the Hawks still have to pay the bill, they don't get cap penalized for it).
Is there any way this guy is not now spending his last days in a Hawks uni?
-Kane's 23 points in 22 games suggest he's gone from really good to near-great. A point a game is the measure of a true star and given that he's rarely got to skate with either Toews or Hossa, you gotta believe his stat line will only get better. In the meantime, be equally as impressed by his +8 - the kid is really starting to become a force.
-Sharp's 6 goals in 22 games are well below the 30+ pace he's shown the past two seasons, but look deeper and you see that he's more than made up for it with 13 assists and a +7. The way he always adjusts his game to what the Hawks have needed tells me this is definitely a guy you want to keep around. Buff, Ladd, Barker, Kopecky, Sopel - that's where you cut your payroll. Not in Sharp, who's a bona fide Top 6 guy, a real leader, and as flexible as any frontline forward you'll find.
-Buff has 7 goals (2nd on the team to Kane), only 2 assists, and is a -4. I figured he'd be an absolute beast with the motivation of making Team USA, and while he's filled the net, I just think he's always going to be an enigma. He's playing well enough to still have significant trade value, so my hope is that this off-season, he's one of the first to go. In the meantime, Buff's got his work cut-out to avoid being pushed back to the 4th line when Bolland returns (as Brouwer and Ladd both look more deserving of winging Madden on the checking line).
-Keith (18 points, +8, 26:31 ATOI), Campbell (14 points, +7, 23:55 ATOI), Seabrook (10 points, +11, 23:51 ATOI), The Hammer (5 points, +6, 20:02 ATOI). Wow. Just look at those numbers. The emergence of The Hammer coupled with the stabilization of Campbell (those things are almost 100% related, by the way) has given the Hawks a Top 4 defensive unit as good as any. The difference between the Hawks team shots for and against are absurd - some of the best in the NHL by a longshot. These four guys deserve the lion's share of the credit for that.
-Toews (60.1%), Madden (57.4%), Frasier (51.9%), and Bolland (49.8%) have given the Hawks one of the best face-off groups in the NHL. All four guys are doing better than expected. Toews has long been good, but 60% is the gold standard. Madden has always been a plus in the face-off circle, but generally in the 52-55% range, not over 57%. Frasier might just be playing himself into a play-off role (something he didn't earn last year) by jumping from a face-off liability to an asset. And Bolland has shrunk the gap of his losses to the point where he's basically a wash.
Sure, the Hawks will struggle with whichever non-center (Versteeg, Sharp, Kopecky?) is forced to play out of position while Bolland is out. But JQ can limit that by having three different centers he can confidently throw into the face-off circle after every whistle. Come playoff time, winning more face-offs than you lose - especially in key situations - becomes a significant factor to success.
In all, I'm feeling damn good about where these Hawks are and where they're going. Let's hope we're soon talking about the official extensions and the equally joyful end of the Sopel era.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Even Steven
The Hawks weren't even out of the off-season transactions period when we learned that a guy we just signed to the biggest deal in franchise history - Hossa - would miss a significant chunk of the season. I think right then we all should have guessed what kind of year it would be.
I don't mean that in terms of success, just that this year will, among other things, be remembered for a string of injuries providing new and unique challenges to the Hawks skaters and coaches.
Given how healthy the Hawks were last year, it's little surprise the law of averages would lead to a rash of injuries this season. We all know that few things in the world are more powerful than the concept of Even Steven. And I don't think we appreciated it enough last year, but the overall team health was unworldly. Besides Sopel (whose injury was a godsend), the only other players to miss significant time were Sharp, Burish, Wisniewski, and Khabi. Sharp still managed 61 games and Burish 66, while Khabi racked up 42 appearances in net. Between Chicago and Anaheim, Wisniewski played 48 games.
I wouldn't have guessed it possible to get through an entire season where the "big" injuries to all the 20+ players who filled out your top 4 lines, top 6 defenders, and two goalies cost you one guy for 35 games, one for 20, another for 15, and maybe 5-10 starts in goal.
But it's all evening out this year. Hossa still hasn't played a minute in a Hawks uni (lookin at around 20+ games missed before he does). Burish will be out almost the entire regular season (playing 10+ games this year will be a success). Eager (out 13 games) and Toews (6 games) have already missed more time than they did last season. So when Bolland was shelved for 3-4 months due to back issues that have been around for a while, was anyone shocked?
My first reaction was actually happiness. I didn't like the initial "day-to-day" prognosis, as it seemed pretty clear Bolland would be out for a while. So I was glad that the powers that be on Madison decided to just go ahead and order the necessary surgery for Bolland. This will get him back in time to be at full speed come the post-season, while also allowing the team to begin making plans for his absence.
That led to my second reaction - what now? Toews' recent return and Hossa's impending one become all the more important, as the Hawks were running out of legit Top 6 forwards and out of NHL-caliber skaters. Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp are proven front-liners, but a contending team has the likes of Ladd and Buff as plus checking line types or complimentary scoring line guys, not the #4 and #5 scoring/playmaking options. But w/o Toews, Bolland, and Hossa, that was the role those guys were forced into.
And the 4th line, such an asset for the Hawks last year, was being filled out with the likes of Frasier, Hendry, and Ebbett. Could all of those guys contribute at the NHL level? Maybe. But for Hendry, it wouldn't be as a forward, for Frasier, it wouldn't be as the top guy on a line, and for Ebbett, it wouldn't be as a winger. Yet, again, those were the roles those guys were being asked to fill.
So let's be happy that Toews is back already (notching a goal in his first game and a nasty shoot-out tally in his second) and that Hossa isn't too far behind (he'll begin contact practices and could re-join the team on the Circus Trip). With those two (and Eager) all back and both Bolland and Burish out, what exactly can we expect to see out of the Hawks lines? It's always impossible to tell the actual set-up JQ will roll out each night, but let's start up the middle and try to figure out a vague overview from there.
Toews will center the 1st line and Madden will take the checking line. From there, it starts to get more uncertain.
Early reports had Versteeg moving over to center (as he did immediately following Bolland's injury), but then last night Ebbett moved up to center the 2nd line, allowing Versteeg to remain on a wing. Based on Ebbett's solid numbers as the #2 center for the Ducks last year (8 G, 24 A in only 48 games as a rookie), it seems that he could be a capable centerman when surrounded by the right guys.
However, JQ seems to like the Versteeg and Kane combo, which when centered with Ebbett, creates a very, very small line. Versteeg and Kane are listed at the same height and weight, making all 5-10, 180 of Ebbett the "size" on the line. That's a little bit scary.
Plus, when Hossa returns, someone has to become the healthy scratch. The heavy odds are Frasier or Ebbett, with the superior player getting the nod as the 4th line centerman. Now it is possible that Ebbett remains on the 2nd line, Frasier is the scratch, and Kopecky centers the 4th line. And I'm glad to see that JQ is giving Ebbett a chance to show himself capable in that alignment.
But, relating back to my early post about the Hawks' lack of a fighter, I don't see Frasier getting scratched. I think he's seen the writing on the wall and understands that if everyone's healthy for the playoffs, he'd again be the odd man out (possibly not even being on the active roster). So in the meantime, he's doing what he can to up his value - namely, filling the fighter role. At 6-1, 190, Frasier won't ever be the heavyweight Eager was, but he does seem to have the chops to at least fill the scrapper role Burish did, which should be enough for the Hawks.
Hence, once Hossa returns, I see the Hawks going with Versteeg centering the 2nd line and Frasier centering the 4th, while Ebbett serves as the healthy scratch. Because Ebbett can play center on a scoring line, the Hawks will have some nice flexibility to deal with the occasional injuries that surface throughout the year.
In looking at the center alignment, I would have guessed I'd be firmly against trying a winger out of position, as the Hawks did with both Versteeg and Sharp for significant stretches last year. Both were capable enough, but neither did nearly as well up the middle as they do on a wing. But the reality is that no one else quite fits. As I mentioned, Ebbett is the victim of the numbers game (and a bit underwhelming so far), Madden is firmly entrenched on the checking line (he's been damn good at a crucial spot - no reason to change that) and neither Kopecky nor Frasier really have the skills to center a scoring line.
So, it's up to Versteeg to again adjust to a new role, new linemates, and new expectations, something he's already done many a time in his year plus career with the Hawks. But I have faith he's up to it, especially if JQ puts the right guys around him. That means players with the hockey sense and physical skills necessary to profit from the often amazing playmaking Versteeg provides (although I've also noticed that Versteeg often tries to do too much, and gets himself into trouble - for him to truly elevate to star status, he's going to have to cut down on those overly aggressive errors).
One name I wouldn't have guessed as a good fit for The Steeg - Kane. It's always a fun idea to imagine two great playmakers on the same line, but that generally means you've left the other lines too weak and not provided those playmakers with the compliments they need.
However, in seeing the way Kane and Versteeg have clicked, I'm kinda hoping JQ keeps these two together. Aside Toews (and probably, we'll soon find out, Hossa), no one on the Hawks has the feel for the ice and ability to move with or without the puck that these two have. That allows them to play a nasty two-man game that creates a ton of pretty scoring chances.
I also don't think the Hawks balance would be effected by skating those two together on a single line. A top line featuring Toews and Hossa certainly wouldn't be lacking much of anything, as those guys bring playmaking, goal-scoring, size, and speed. And a third line featuring Madden winged by some combination of Sharp, Brouwer, Kopecky, Ladd, and/or Buff would be capable of both checking the top line and creating some offense itself.
So where's that leave things? I'm seeing Toews and Hossa up top, with Sharp on the wing. The other options here are Ladd, Brouwer, or Buff, but those guys all provide size, which isn't needed alongside Toews (6-1, 195) and Hossa (6-1, 210). Sharp's uncanny ability to snipe goals would play great alongside all the attention Toews and Hossa will command.
Although both Sharp and Hossa are big goal-scorers, so it's possible JQ puts a pure grinder like Brouwer up there to do the dirty work instead. While I'm still not sold on Brouwer, he has definitely been playing better than last year and might finally be getting his role. He's one of the tops in the NHL in checks and seems to understand that energy and all-out physicallity are his two main responsibilities. And when you throw in that the guy did score 41 goals in only 66 AHL games in 06-07, Brouwer might just develop the offensive touch to profit from skating with Toews and Hossa (something he failed at miserably last year).
Or Ladd could get the nod, as a guy capable of scoring when the opportunity presents itself, playing strong defense, and bringing a bit of size and grind alongside two stars. Ladd has really developed into a well-rounded compliment and probably could fit well on any Hawk line. That's a nice bit of flexibility, especially as JQ deals with the loss of his #2 center and plays the line merry-go-round game he loves so much.
On the Versteeg and Kane line, as mentioned above, size would seem to be the primary need out of their other winger. Obviously those two bring all the scoring and play-making you need, and in Versteeg even have some solid defense and grind. If JQ can live with a smallish line and doesn't use him with Toews and Hossa, Sharp could be a beautiful fit with Versteeg and Kane. Again, the value Versteeg and Kane both bring is setting up plays every time they touch the puck. And no one on the team (except maybe Hossa) is better suited to capitalize on great play-making than Sharp. He's made a hell of a career banging home the opportunities others create.
However, if JQ does want to ensure a bit of size and balance on his lines, anyone in the Ladd-Brouwer-Buff group can capably provide some beef and grit alongside Versteeg and Kane. Buff is frustrating for all the chances his stone hands and iffy skating blow, but he also is an absolute horse and has shown an ability to score in bunches. And his big body camped out in front of the net would draw defenders, creating space for Kane and Versteeg to work in. My one fear - skating Buff and Kane together puts the team's two most likely skaters to take a shift off on the same line, which could mean a lot of chances the other way.
However the Scoring lines shake out, we've got a third line featuring Madden alongside two wingers out of the Sharp-Buff-Brouwer-Ladd group. No matter who that is, you're gonna have size, the ability to grind, and most important, the ability to play some defense against the other team's top line every night. A 30+ goal scorer like Sharp wouldn't seem like the right fit on a checking line, but he's long been a good defensive winger and Madden's speed and tenacity do create a lot of chances Sharp could capitalize on. And as the Hawks found last year, getting consistent scoring from three lines makes you hard to beat.
Finally, the fourth line would feature Frasier in the middle, winged by Kopecky and Eager. It's really encouraging to lay that out, as it shows that the Hawks again will be skating one of the more talented energy lines you'll find. Kopecky is solid defensively and can move well, Eager is a high motor behemoth who skates surprisingly well and can score, and Frasier won't hurt you as a guy looking to earn his stripes by defending his teammates. Sounds like a nice 4th line mix to me.
Having said all that, losing everything Bolland brings is definitely a major blow to the Hawks - don't believe anything else. My point with the above is just to lay out that the Hawks still have enough capable players to remain a strong top-to-bottom team until Bolland comes back. And when he does return, the extra ice time that Brouwer, Buff, Ladd, Kopecky, and even Frasier and Ebbett get in the meantime will only strengthen the Hawks' depth for a playoff run.
Final point, related to our blueline (which I believe is set at the Top 4 - Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and the Hammer are all legit top flight defenders). I don't know if Hendry is any good, but I do know that Sopel is terrible and only going to get worse as he continues to age and get slower. While he hasn't been as horrible as last season, Sopel is definitely slow and completely mismatched with Barker, himself not terribly fleet of foot defensively and prone to mistakes.
The Hawks need a defender next to Barker who can move enough to cover Cam's occasional lapses and doesn't make many himself. They don't need this guy to have any offensive skills - Barker has more than enough for both of them, especially given that this is our third D pairing. This blueliner just has to hold down the fort and clean up Barker's messes. Sopel makes too many mistakes of his own and certainly has no make-up speed or innate defensive ability to help out enough with Barker.
So I just don't get why the Hawks can't see that Sopel should be your regular healthy scratch on the blueline, while the Hawks go about seeing if Hendry or someone else down at Rockford (or off waivers) can be a capable 6th defenseman. And there's no time like the present, because if they can't find a viable option (a very likely possibility), then the Hawks need to be ready to make a move before the trade deadline - no easy task given their salary cap issues.
Especially because this off-season the Hawks will need to farm out Sopel (thus eliminating his salary from their cap), why waste any more time before you start looking for a replacement?
I don't mean that in terms of success, just that this year will, among other things, be remembered for a string of injuries providing new and unique challenges to the Hawks skaters and coaches.
Given how healthy the Hawks were last year, it's little surprise the law of averages would lead to a rash of injuries this season. We all know that few things in the world are more powerful than the concept of Even Steven. And I don't think we appreciated it enough last year, but the overall team health was unworldly. Besides Sopel (whose injury was a godsend), the only other players to miss significant time were Sharp, Burish, Wisniewski, and Khabi. Sharp still managed 61 games and Burish 66, while Khabi racked up 42 appearances in net. Between Chicago and Anaheim, Wisniewski played 48 games.
I wouldn't have guessed it possible to get through an entire season where the "big" injuries to all the 20+ players who filled out your top 4 lines, top 6 defenders, and two goalies cost you one guy for 35 games, one for 20, another for 15, and maybe 5-10 starts in goal.
But it's all evening out this year. Hossa still hasn't played a minute in a Hawks uni (lookin at around 20+ games missed before he does). Burish will be out almost the entire regular season (playing 10+ games this year will be a success). Eager (out 13 games) and Toews (6 games) have already missed more time than they did last season. So when Bolland was shelved for 3-4 months due to back issues that have been around for a while, was anyone shocked?
My first reaction was actually happiness. I didn't like the initial "day-to-day" prognosis, as it seemed pretty clear Bolland would be out for a while. So I was glad that the powers that be on Madison decided to just go ahead and order the necessary surgery for Bolland. This will get him back in time to be at full speed come the post-season, while also allowing the team to begin making plans for his absence.
That led to my second reaction - what now? Toews' recent return and Hossa's impending one become all the more important, as the Hawks were running out of legit Top 6 forwards and out of NHL-caliber skaters. Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp are proven front-liners, but a contending team has the likes of Ladd and Buff as plus checking line types or complimentary scoring line guys, not the #4 and #5 scoring/playmaking options. But w/o Toews, Bolland, and Hossa, that was the role those guys were forced into.
And the 4th line, such an asset for the Hawks last year, was being filled out with the likes of Frasier, Hendry, and Ebbett. Could all of those guys contribute at the NHL level? Maybe. But for Hendry, it wouldn't be as a forward, for Frasier, it wouldn't be as the top guy on a line, and for Ebbett, it wouldn't be as a winger. Yet, again, those were the roles those guys were being asked to fill.
So let's be happy that Toews is back already (notching a goal in his first game and a nasty shoot-out tally in his second) and that Hossa isn't too far behind (he'll begin contact practices and could re-join the team on the Circus Trip). With those two (and Eager) all back and both Bolland and Burish out, what exactly can we expect to see out of the Hawks lines? It's always impossible to tell the actual set-up JQ will roll out each night, but let's start up the middle and try to figure out a vague overview from there.
Toews will center the 1st line and Madden will take the checking line. From there, it starts to get more uncertain.
Early reports had Versteeg moving over to center (as he did immediately following Bolland's injury), but then last night Ebbett moved up to center the 2nd line, allowing Versteeg to remain on a wing. Based on Ebbett's solid numbers as the #2 center for the Ducks last year (8 G, 24 A in only 48 games as a rookie), it seems that he could be a capable centerman when surrounded by the right guys.
However, JQ seems to like the Versteeg and Kane combo, which when centered with Ebbett, creates a very, very small line. Versteeg and Kane are listed at the same height and weight, making all 5-10, 180 of Ebbett the "size" on the line. That's a little bit scary.
Plus, when Hossa returns, someone has to become the healthy scratch. The heavy odds are Frasier or Ebbett, with the superior player getting the nod as the 4th line centerman. Now it is possible that Ebbett remains on the 2nd line, Frasier is the scratch, and Kopecky centers the 4th line. And I'm glad to see that JQ is giving Ebbett a chance to show himself capable in that alignment.
But, relating back to my early post about the Hawks' lack of a fighter, I don't see Frasier getting scratched. I think he's seen the writing on the wall and understands that if everyone's healthy for the playoffs, he'd again be the odd man out (possibly not even being on the active roster). So in the meantime, he's doing what he can to up his value - namely, filling the fighter role. At 6-1, 190, Frasier won't ever be the heavyweight Eager was, but he does seem to have the chops to at least fill the scrapper role Burish did, which should be enough for the Hawks.
Hence, once Hossa returns, I see the Hawks going with Versteeg centering the 2nd line and Frasier centering the 4th, while Ebbett serves as the healthy scratch. Because Ebbett can play center on a scoring line, the Hawks will have some nice flexibility to deal with the occasional injuries that surface throughout the year.
In looking at the center alignment, I would have guessed I'd be firmly against trying a winger out of position, as the Hawks did with both Versteeg and Sharp for significant stretches last year. Both were capable enough, but neither did nearly as well up the middle as they do on a wing. But the reality is that no one else quite fits. As I mentioned, Ebbett is the victim of the numbers game (and a bit underwhelming so far), Madden is firmly entrenched on the checking line (he's been damn good at a crucial spot - no reason to change that) and neither Kopecky nor Frasier really have the skills to center a scoring line.
So, it's up to Versteeg to again adjust to a new role, new linemates, and new expectations, something he's already done many a time in his year plus career with the Hawks. But I have faith he's up to it, especially if JQ puts the right guys around him. That means players with the hockey sense and physical skills necessary to profit from the often amazing playmaking Versteeg provides (although I've also noticed that Versteeg often tries to do too much, and gets himself into trouble - for him to truly elevate to star status, he's going to have to cut down on those overly aggressive errors).
One name I wouldn't have guessed as a good fit for The Steeg - Kane. It's always a fun idea to imagine two great playmakers on the same line, but that generally means you've left the other lines too weak and not provided those playmakers with the compliments they need.
However, in seeing the way Kane and Versteeg have clicked, I'm kinda hoping JQ keeps these two together. Aside Toews (and probably, we'll soon find out, Hossa), no one on the Hawks has the feel for the ice and ability to move with or without the puck that these two have. That allows them to play a nasty two-man game that creates a ton of pretty scoring chances.
I also don't think the Hawks balance would be effected by skating those two together on a single line. A top line featuring Toews and Hossa certainly wouldn't be lacking much of anything, as those guys bring playmaking, goal-scoring, size, and speed. And a third line featuring Madden winged by some combination of Sharp, Brouwer, Kopecky, Ladd, and/or Buff would be capable of both checking the top line and creating some offense itself.
So where's that leave things? I'm seeing Toews and Hossa up top, with Sharp on the wing. The other options here are Ladd, Brouwer, or Buff, but those guys all provide size, which isn't needed alongside Toews (6-1, 195) and Hossa (6-1, 210). Sharp's uncanny ability to snipe goals would play great alongside all the attention Toews and Hossa will command.
Although both Sharp and Hossa are big goal-scorers, so it's possible JQ puts a pure grinder like Brouwer up there to do the dirty work instead. While I'm still not sold on Brouwer, he has definitely been playing better than last year and might finally be getting his role. He's one of the tops in the NHL in checks and seems to understand that energy and all-out physicallity are his two main responsibilities. And when you throw in that the guy did score 41 goals in only 66 AHL games in 06-07, Brouwer might just develop the offensive touch to profit from skating with Toews and Hossa (something he failed at miserably last year).
Or Ladd could get the nod, as a guy capable of scoring when the opportunity presents itself, playing strong defense, and bringing a bit of size and grind alongside two stars. Ladd has really developed into a well-rounded compliment and probably could fit well on any Hawk line. That's a nice bit of flexibility, especially as JQ deals with the loss of his #2 center and plays the line merry-go-round game he loves so much.
On the Versteeg and Kane line, as mentioned above, size would seem to be the primary need out of their other winger. Obviously those two bring all the scoring and play-making you need, and in Versteeg even have some solid defense and grind. If JQ can live with a smallish line and doesn't use him with Toews and Hossa, Sharp could be a beautiful fit with Versteeg and Kane. Again, the value Versteeg and Kane both bring is setting up plays every time they touch the puck. And no one on the team (except maybe Hossa) is better suited to capitalize on great play-making than Sharp. He's made a hell of a career banging home the opportunities others create.
However, if JQ does want to ensure a bit of size and balance on his lines, anyone in the Ladd-Brouwer-Buff group can capably provide some beef and grit alongside Versteeg and Kane. Buff is frustrating for all the chances his stone hands and iffy skating blow, but he also is an absolute horse and has shown an ability to score in bunches. And his big body camped out in front of the net would draw defenders, creating space for Kane and Versteeg to work in. My one fear - skating Buff and Kane together puts the team's two most likely skaters to take a shift off on the same line, which could mean a lot of chances the other way.
However the Scoring lines shake out, we've got a third line featuring Madden alongside two wingers out of the Sharp-Buff-Brouwer-Ladd group. No matter who that is, you're gonna have size, the ability to grind, and most important, the ability to play some defense against the other team's top line every night. A 30+ goal scorer like Sharp wouldn't seem like the right fit on a checking line, but he's long been a good defensive winger and Madden's speed and tenacity do create a lot of chances Sharp could capitalize on. And as the Hawks found last year, getting consistent scoring from three lines makes you hard to beat.
Finally, the fourth line would feature Frasier in the middle, winged by Kopecky and Eager. It's really encouraging to lay that out, as it shows that the Hawks again will be skating one of the more talented energy lines you'll find. Kopecky is solid defensively and can move well, Eager is a high motor behemoth who skates surprisingly well and can score, and Frasier won't hurt you as a guy looking to earn his stripes by defending his teammates. Sounds like a nice 4th line mix to me.
Having said all that, losing everything Bolland brings is definitely a major blow to the Hawks - don't believe anything else. My point with the above is just to lay out that the Hawks still have enough capable players to remain a strong top-to-bottom team until Bolland comes back. And when he does return, the extra ice time that Brouwer, Buff, Ladd, Kopecky, and even Frasier and Ebbett get in the meantime will only strengthen the Hawks' depth for a playoff run.
Final point, related to our blueline (which I believe is set at the Top 4 - Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and the Hammer are all legit top flight defenders). I don't know if Hendry is any good, but I do know that Sopel is terrible and only going to get worse as he continues to age and get slower. While he hasn't been as horrible as last season, Sopel is definitely slow and completely mismatched with Barker, himself not terribly fleet of foot defensively and prone to mistakes.
The Hawks need a defender next to Barker who can move enough to cover Cam's occasional lapses and doesn't make many himself. They don't need this guy to have any offensive skills - Barker has more than enough for both of them, especially given that this is our third D pairing. This blueliner just has to hold down the fort and clean up Barker's messes. Sopel makes too many mistakes of his own and certainly has no make-up speed or innate defensive ability to help out enough with Barker.
So I just don't get why the Hawks can't see that Sopel should be your regular healthy scratch on the blueline, while the Hawks go about seeing if Hendry or someone else down at Rockford (or off waivers) can be a capable 6th defenseman. And there's no time like the present, because if they can't find a viable option (a very likely possibility), then the Hawks need to be ready to make a move before the trade deadline - no easy task given their salary cap issues.
Especially because this off-season the Hawks will need to farm out Sopel (thus eliminating his salary from their cap), why waste any more time before you start looking for a replacement?
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Random Thoughts
With game 12 coming up on Thursday, here are some of the things I've been thinking about lately with the Hawks:
-Glad to see Huet get it turned around again. I said it in my preseason preview and to whomever would listen - don't worry about this guy in the regular season. He's got a very long, very accomplished track record there. The fact that the fans and media don't realize this shows just how out of touch and ignorant Hawks fans are. That's no rip on us fans, just a lingering effect of us all being turned off by a decade plus of terrible hockey thanks to drunken Dollar Bill Wirtz.
That's not to say that Huet isn't at risk to be a bust, it's just that he's accomplished enough (including last year w/ the Hawks) to not have everyone doubt the guy after a couple of rough games to start the season. Goalies lose their stuff all the time, but it's gonna take more than a week or two of the season for me to worry about Huet.
Having said that, come playoff time, all bets are off. This guy has never been out of the first round, so that's when the well-founded doubting should begin.
-I can't properly express the amount of love I have for Versteeg. He is SO talented and does so much good on the ice. So far this year it hasn't brought him huge numbers, but it seems like every other shift he's out there he does something noteworthy. And it's not like his 2 goals and 5 assists are anything to scoff at, especially paired with a +5. But I've got a feeling those great plays will start turning into more goals (for him and his linemates) and before long this guy will start to have some big numbers that will get him the high end respect he deserves.
Especially now that JQ seems to have listened to my suggestion and thrown him on a line with capable offensive players in Bolland and Ladd. I really hope that line stays together for a while, because I fully believe they can be a real 2nd line force that also gives you strength in the defensive zone. That's a rare combo.
-On another Versteeg-related note, seeing him step up after Toews got laid out was just one more reason to love this guy. However, it also brings up a very necessary concern w/ Burish and Eager out - the Hawks just don't have the enforcer presence necessary to a professional hockey team.
Look, I'm not saying the Hawks need a talent-less goon out there, nor do I see any advantage such a player provides you. However, if you don't have anyone who can consistently get into fights and keep the other team honest, then you end up at a real disadvantage.
Two years ago the Hawks were missing a real heavyweight, but young scrappers like Burish and Wisniewski did everything they could to make up for it. It wasn't ideal, but it worked well enough. Last year Eager finally gave them a real enforcer while also being a good skater, the perfect mix.
But with Eager maybe looking at a long layoff due to yet another concussion, Burish out pretty much all regular season, and Wisniewski a member of the Ducks, the Hawks need to find another answer.
It's not Seabrook, who's far too valuable on the blueline to be missing 5-minute chunks, not to mention that he's suffering from some concussion issues of his own. It's not Buff, who's long said he's no fighter and really doesn't have the mentality necessary (and might just be entering the too valuable to lose zone himself, given his 5 goals in 11 games).
With the 6th defensive spot a bit of a mess (currently a mix of the unproven Hendry and horrendous Sopel), you could look to some mediocre big physical type who's floating around the AHL to give you that presence. But with Seabrook missing time, I'm not sure you want another sub-par defender out there.
One possible option is Brouwer, who's got the size and has shown an increasing appreciation for the need to become a scrappy role player. He may not be the best fighter, but just the willingness to drop the gloves would be enough. If Brouwer would add that element to his game, he might just start to deserve all the ice time JQ loves giving him.
And with so many forwards out of the lineup right now (Toews, Hossa, Eager, Burish), there definitely is some room for a big physical type on the 4th line. So again, maybe some mediocre guy floating around the AHL can come up and play an enforcer role without hurting you too bad with his lack of skill. Especially because the alternatives - Skille, Dowell, Bickell - have been underwhelming, why not?
I know it's not easy to find a capable skater who can throw down, but that 4th liner probably only gets 5-6 minutes a game - you can't find someone who can fill those and give you a physical presence for a few months during the regular season without hurting you too bad?
-Speaking of underwhelming, I am so done with Sopel. While I had some hopes last year was a fluke, his -4 through 10 games seems to suggest what I saw last year is what Sopel is - a totally worthless skater incapable of playing at an NHL level. Not a single other Hawks defenseman has below a +1, yet there's Sopel at -4 despite far less ice time. Doesn't that say it all?
I know he's got this year and next on his deal at $2.33 per, but it's time the Hawks just bite the bullet on the salary, farm him out (which clear his number from the salary cap), and open up that 6th spot for someone who might develop.
Is that guy Hendry? No idea. But let's give him regular PT and see, like we did with The Hammer last year. And if it's not Hendry, try out one of the other guys down in the minors. Or pick someone up off waivers. You never know what you'll find (Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker were nice garbage heap pick-ups last year, while The Hammer didn't come on until almost March of last season).
Sopel is done. I don't care that Seabrook is out and the D is thin - send Sopel down to the minors and try someone - anyone - else in that spot.
-It didn't get any fanfare, but I like the addition of Andrew Ebbet from the Ducks. Len Ziehm (the Sun-Times Hawks writer) had a good article that discussed how Ebbet went from their #2 center to the dog house through no real fault of his own. When the Ducks added Saku Koivu, Ebbet was moved to a wing. But he didn't fit there, as he's a smaller guy (5-10, 180) who isn't very comfortable with the position, while the Ducks like big physical wings along the boards.
That might have created a real opportunity for the Hawks. In only 48 games as a rookie last year, Ebbet had 8 goals and 24 assists (including 6 PP tallies and 5 PP helpers). Given a full season, we're talking 14 goals and 43 assists - that's the type of production Ladd gave the Hawks last year - in fact, even better!
Is Ebbet really that type of player? Seems unlikely, as he was waived rather than traded for anything of value. But he showed he was capable of producing on some level. And more importantly, I liked the look of his +8. If he can give me around 7 goals and 20 assists while playing the solid two-way game that +/- suggests, Ebbet becomes a very valuable 4th line center.
With Burish and Eager possibly gone for a while, that's something the Hawks really need. In the short term, with Toews out for a bit, Ebbet becomes even more valuable as an offensively capable center. With a Sharp and/or Kane on his wing, Ebbet could end up being plenty productive until Toews comes back, and then settle into a 3rd or 4th line slot.
What I'm worried about is that the Hawks try to use him on a wing. He's made it clear he's not comfortable there and that's not where you're gonna get the most out of him. Frasier is no great shakes as the 4th line center - so when Toews gets back, why not force him to a wing? Frasier's a scrappy type who's not overly impressive in the face-off circle, so why can't he move over?
That way Ebbet, who's shown actual talent, could remain at his center spot and maybe turn that 4th line into a little bit of an asset. With the loss of Eager and Burish, the Hawks could certainly use an upgrade down there.
-Glad to see Huet get it turned around again. I said it in my preseason preview and to whomever would listen - don't worry about this guy in the regular season. He's got a very long, very accomplished track record there. The fact that the fans and media don't realize this shows just how out of touch and ignorant Hawks fans are. That's no rip on us fans, just a lingering effect of us all being turned off by a decade plus of terrible hockey thanks to drunken Dollar Bill Wirtz.
That's not to say that Huet isn't at risk to be a bust, it's just that he's accomplished enough (including last year w/ the Hawks) to not have everyone doubt the guy after a couple of rough games to start the season. Goalies lose their stuff all the time, but it's gonna take more than a week or two of the season for me to worry about Huet.
Having said that, come playoff time, all bets are off. This guy has never been out of the first round, so that's when the well-founded doubting should begin.
-I can't properly express the amount of love I have for Versteeg. He is SO talented and does so much good on the ice. So far this year it hasn't brought him huge numbers, but it seems like every other shift he's out there he does something noteworthy. And it's not like his 2 goals and 5 assists are anything to scoff at, especially paired with a +5. But I've got a feeling those great plays will start turning into more goals (for him and his linemates) and before long this guy will start to have some big numbers that will get him the high end respect he deserves.
Especially now that JQ seems to have listened to my suggestion and thrown him on a line with capable offensive players in Bolland and Ladd. I really hope that line stays together for a while, because I fully believe they can be a real 2nd line force that also gives you strength in the defensive zone. That's a rare combo.
-On another Versteeg-related note, seeing him step up after Toews got laid out was just one more reason to love this guy. However, it also brings up a very necessary concern w/ Burish and Eager out - the Hawks just don't have the enforcer presence necessary to a professional hockey team.
Look, I'm not saying the Hawks need a talent-less goon out there, nor do I see any advantage such a player provides you. However, if you don't have anyone who can consistently get into fights and keep the other team honest, then you end up at a real disadvantage.
Two years ago the Hawks were missing a real heavyweight, but young scrappers like Burish and Wisniewski did everything they could to make up for it. It wasn't ideal, but it worked well enough. Last year Eager finally gave them a real enforcer while also being a good skater, the perfect mix.
But with Eager maybe looking at a long layoff due to yet another concussion, Burish out pretty much all regular season, and Wisniewski a member of the Ducks, the Hawks need to find another answer.
It's not Seabrook, who's far too valuable on the blueline to be missing 5-minute chunks, not to mention that he's suffering from some concussion issues of his own. It's not Buff, who's long said he's no fighter and really doesn't have the mentality necessary (and might just be entering the too valuable to lose zone himself, given his 5 goals in 11 games).
With the 6th defensive spot a bit of a mess (currently a mix of the unproven Hendry and horrendous Sopel), you could look to some mediocre big physical type who's floating around the AHL to give you that presence. But with Seabrook missing time, I'm not sure you want another sub-par defender out there.
One possible option is Brouwer, who's got the size and has shown an increasing appreciation for the need to become a scrappy role player. He may not be the best fighter, but just the willingness to drop the gloves would be enough. If Brouwer would add that element to his game, he might just start to deserve all the ice time JQ loves giving him.
And with so many forwards out of the lineup right now (Toews, Hossa, Eager, Burish), there definitely is some room for a big physical type on the 4th line. So again, maybe some mediocre guy floating around the AHL can come up and play an enforcer role without hurting you too bad with his lack of skill. Especially because the alternatives - Skille, Dowell, Bickell - have been underwhelming, why not?
I know it's not easy to find a capable skater who can throw down, but that 4th liner probably only gets 5-6 minutes a game - you can't find someone who can fill those and give you a physical presence for a few months during the regular season without hurting you too bad?
-Speaking of underwhelming, I am so done with Sopel. While I had some hopes last year was a fluke, his -4 through 10 games seems to suggest what I saw last year is what Sopel is - a totally worthless skater incapable of playing at an NHL level. Not a single other Hawks defenseman has below a +1, yet there's Sopel at -4 despite far less ice time. Doesn't that say it all?
I know he's got this year and next on his deal at $2.33 per, but it's time the Hawks just bite the bullet on the salary, farm him out (which clear his number from the salary cap), and open up that 6th spot for someone who might develop.
Is that guy Hendry? No idea. But let's give him regular PT and see, like we did with The Hammer last year. And if it's not Hendry, try out one of the other guys down in the minors. Or pick someone up off waivers. You never know what you'll find (Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker were nice garbage heap pick-ups last year, while The Hammer didn't come on until almost March of last season).
Sopel is done. I don't care that Seabrook is out and the D is thin - send Sopel down to the minors and try someone - anyone - else in that spot.
-It didn't get any fanfare, but I like the addition of Andrew Ebbet from the Ducks. Len Ziehm (the Sun-Times Hawks writer) had a good article that discussed how Ebbet went from their #2 center to the dog house through no real fault of his own. When the Ducks added Saku Koivu, Ebbet was moved to a wing. But he didn't fit there, as he's a smaller guy (5-10, 180) who isn't very comfortable with the position, while the Ducks like big physical wings along the boards.
That might have created a real opportunity for the Hawks. In only 48 games as a rookie last year, Ebbet had 8 goals and 24 assists (including 6 PP tallies and 5 PP helpers). Given a full season, we're talking 14 goals and 43 assists - that's the type of production Ladd gave the Hawks last year - in fact, even better!
Is Ebbet really that type of player? Seems unlikely, as he was waived rather than traded for anything of value. But he showed he was capable of producing on some level. And more importantly, I liked the look of his +8. If he can give me around 7 goals and 20 assists while playing the solid two-way game that +/- suggests, Ebbet becomes a very valuable 4th line center.
With Burish and Eager possibly gone for a while, that's something the Hawks really need. In the short term, with Toews out for a bit, Ebbet becomes even more valuable as an offensively capable center. With a Sharp and/or Kane on his wing, Ebbet could end up being plenty productive until Toews comes back, and then settle into a 3rd or 4th line slot.
What I'm worried about is that the Hawks try to use him on a wing. He's made it clear he's not comfortable there and that's not where you're gonna get the most out of him. Frasier is no great shakes as the 4th line center - so when Toews gets back, why not force him to a wing? Frasier's a scrappy type who's not overly impressive in the face-off circle, so why can't he move over?
That way Ebbet, who's shown actual talent, could remain at his center spot and maybe turn that 4th line into a little bit of an asset. With the loss of Eager and Burish, the Hawks could certainly use an upgrade down there.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Predicting 2009-2010 (Part III)
Part III - Defensemen
Here before the season I gave some introductory thoughts on how saw the Hawks regular season shaking out and then here last week I reviewed my thoughts on the forwards and what I expected from them.
Now, a mere two weeks into the season, I finally get to the blueliners:
Keith #2
Age: 26
08-09: 8 G, 36 A, +33, 25:43 ATOI in 77 games
The straw that stirs the drink, I've argued before (echoing the thoughts of many other learned Hawks fans) that Keith is the most important player on the team. I think in the playoffs Seabrook really took a step forward on both ends and that Campbell showed himself a capable veteran on his own end, but the fact remains that Keith is still the heart and soul of both the defense and the squad as a whole.
That Keith has been a plus thirty in each of the last two seasons while leading the team in ice time and always matching up against the other team's top skaters tells you all you need to know. This guy is an elite defender who may not get the hype but certainly deserves it.
The Hawks will soon lock up Keith longterm and chew up a boatload of salary cap space in doing so, but we'll be happy campers for it. He really is an offensive and defensive force who gives every bit of himself on every shift, every night. I think the Hawks players would agree that Keith would be the last guy they'd want to lose.
This year I see more of the same from Keith - tons of ice time, great plus-minus, and a very solid point total as he sparks a potent offense. Don't underestimate that impact of his game - not just Keith, but the entire Hawks defense. That most of the Hawks blueliners can really skate, pass, and shoot makes the already skilled group of forwards even more productive. Skating a bit lately myself I've come to realize the huge difference having offensively capable defenders can be. Keith and Co. fill that bill as good as any unit in the league.
Seabrook #7
Age: 24
08-09: 8 G, 18 A, +23, 23:19 ATOI in 82 games
First and foremost, I have to admit my bias for Seabrook, as he's my 3-month old daughter's favorite player. Being a sports fan and avid athlete myself, I'm of the opinion every one needs their own number (although mine has changed often throughout the years) and thus decided that Lily's is 7, as she was born on 7-7. So when it came time to pick her favorite Blackhawk, Seabrook was an obvious choice.
This choice was cemented when he scored an OT goal to seal the greatest comeback in Hawks history in what just happened to be Lily's first Hawks game (I found an actual baby Hawks sweater online and everything - not a tshirt that looks like a jersey, an actual hockey jersey that's been shrunk down to baby size).
But I think having Seabrook as her first favorite Hawk will serve Lily well. As I mentioned above, Seabrook took things to another level last year in the playoffs. He's always been a solid sidekick to Keith, but in the post-season he elevated his importance on the power play and on regular shifts against the top players every night.
While all the focus has been on the cap space hijinx the Hawks will have to pull off to keep the Big Three (Kane, Toews, and Keith) in the fold after this year w/o losing major pieces, it's also scary to note that Seabrook will put the team in a similar place the following season. And the way he's been playing, I don't see how the Hawks can let him go.
With that big shot and quiet confidence from the point, Seabrook has become an offensive factor. And with good size, solid speed, and a great feel for the ice, he remains a defensive zone presence. I think this year Seabrook will elevate to top tier status and hope that's recognized by Team Canada (tho giving the guy an extra two weeks off would have its own rewards).
I just hope the Hawks can find a way to sacrifice enough of the cap space with the likes of Barker, Buff, et al to ensure that Seabrook joins Toews, Kane, Hossa, Bolland, Versteeg, Campbell, and Keith as longterm core Hawks.
Campbell #51
Age: 30
08-09: 7 G, 45 A, +5, 22:34 ATOI in 82 games
With all this talk of salary cap casualties to come, it's easy to point to Campbell's behemoth contract and his lack of awe-inspiring impact last season as a major misstep for the Hawks. But as I've said before, I don't full agree. I do agree that the Hawks screwed up when they signed Campbell last off-season. But I believe the mistake was in not offering him a 12-year deal to lessen the salary cap impact, as has become the norm now.
At a $5M hit instead of a $7M, Campbell is looking a bit better. And when you really delve into the value and rarity of a blazing fast offensive defenseman of his type, you start to see that from a purely hockey standpoint, adding Campbell into this mix was a real victory for the Hawks.
As I said above, one of the reasons the Hawks offense is so potent is because they have so many defensemen making it all go. And Campbell is definitely the best of the group in doing that. In case you thought Campbell had a disappointing season last year, consider this - he set career highs in assists, points, games, and shots on goal.
Yep, career highs. The Hawks paid him based on an impressive body of work, but Campbell came out and out-performed that body. So how could this guy be considered a disappointment by so many Hawks fans?
What was most encouraging to me was that Campbell elevated his defense tremendously in the playoffs. As a veteran who'd been through the battles previously, Campbell understood that his first job was to lock things down in his own end and I believe he did a very solid job of it. Sure, he had a couple of mistakes, let a couple of bouncing pucks get by him. But in all, I thought he was a plus defender from a strictly defensive perspective and showed that come crunch time, Campbell understood what was needed to win.
This year I see Campbell having an even better season - maybe not statistically, but certainly in his impact on the Hawks. No longer is he the big free agent signee nor much of a focus of the team. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, and Huet will all get far greater scrutiny from the fans and media. I think that will allow Campbell to settle in to what he does best and finally make people see what an asset he is.
Hjalmarsson #4
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 14:59 ATOI in 21 games
After getting into 13 games when the Hawks defense was decimated late in 07-08, the Hammer was buried in Rockford all season as surprise contributors Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker became early season regulars. But when Wisniewski was traded to the Ducks for Pahlsson, HJ jumped over Johnson and never looked back.
Looking nowhere near the 6-3 he's listed at (nor the 194 lbs), the baby-faced blueliner showed impressive grit and tenacity, focusing his game on the defensive end and turning himself into a reliable player worthy of significant minutes by the time the postseason rolled around. There he continued to develop and at no time was the Hammer a detriment to the team - an impressive feat for a 21-year old with so little experience playing in the ever-demanding environment of a Stanley Cup playoff run.
Sure, he still makes his mistakes and isn't quite the stay-at-home rock you wish you'd have to pair with Campbell. But he's well on his way and could just be that guy come the playoffs. Everyone raves about him and from what I've seen its well-deserved. Given some maturity, confidence, and experience, I think the Hammer could definitely be a key piece to a long-awaited Cup run.
And that'd be a great thing on a lot of levels. It'd be outstanding to have a young stay-at-home type with some grit who isn't costing you a lot against the cap. But it'd also be nice to free Campbell up to be more of an offensive defenseman. Ideally, Campbell is skating with a guy who can cover his aggressiveness, as opposed to last year, where Campbell had to be both committing hard offensively and then also skating back to make up for a weak defender on his other side.
It seems clear that both Campbell and JQ respect HJ's ability to handle himself and Campbell's rushes, and I'd say I agree. I think this kid continues to elevate his game and does become a vital piece of the Hawks blue line going forward.
Barker #25
Age: 23
08-09: 6 G, 34 A, -6, 18:21 ATOI in 68 games
While Skille's daily up-and-down roster maneuvering this year is about the best evidence of how stupid the NHL cap is, the fact that Barker had to wait around in the AHL to start last season is pretty good too. After a 07-08 in which he had 6 goals and 12 assists in only 45 games, Barker clearly deserved to be an everyday NHLer. But due to the cap, he was forced to miss the first weeks of the season as the Hawks sorted out their finances, before finally coming up and making a major impact on the offensive end.
His 5 PPG and 24 PPA both lead the team, and they were well-earned. Barker is definitely a strong player on the point, at least in JQ's system, which calls on the blueliners to throw the puck on net early and often. Barker also was solid 5-on-5, showing solid skills carrying the puck up-ice and finding open teammates.
However, Barker has and probably always will leave a heck of a lot to be desired on defense. He did step up physically, both using his length and size to his advantage and in getting into fights and tussles to keep the other team honest. However, he made fartoo many mental and physical errors, many of them leading directly to goals against.
A lack of confidence and intensity always seemed to be holding Barker back, but now those things seem to be behind him. However, he still hasn't figured out how to be a good defensive-defenseman, or even a capable one, and for that reason I think the Hawks would be wise to make Barker one of their first cap casualties. The offense he brings is rare and valuable, but someone has to go and I think Barker's cap number and defensive issues put him at the bottom of the list of valuable Hawks.
Don't get me wrong, though. While he's still in a Hawks uni, Barker remains an asset. I'm just saying he's less of one than the other great players they have and someone has to go. In the meantime though, I see Barker continuing to develop on both ends of the ice, even as he continues to make mistakes on both ends, and be an asset for the Hawks this year in much the same way he was last year. I don't foresee any great leap forward, but just a repeat of last year will mean Barker has done what the Hawks needed of him.
Ideally I'd like to see Barker paired with a strong defender with some athleticism (I think the Hammer could develop into that very guy). Do that and I think the Hawks would get the most out of Barker that could rightfully be expected.
Sopel #5
Age: 32
08-09: 1 G, 1 A, -4, 13:49 ATOI in 23 games
I have no idea what to make of this guy. Last year was a total zero for Sopel, as injuries and the team's lack of confidence in him essentially made him a non-entity after the first month. The early reports this year are that significant injuries which weren't publicized (as is the practice in the NHL) really hindered him, but that now he's ready to contribute again.
On some level you can believe that - often times unpublished injuries really hold a guy back and Sopel does have a solid-looking track record. Before last year, the previous six seasons looked like this - 8 G and 17 A, 7 G and 30 A, 10 G and 32 A, 2 G and 26 A, 5 G and 23 A, and finally 1 G and 19 A in 07-08 with the Hawks. Throughout that period he had an ATOI over 20 minutes and overall was a plus, including a +9 that season with the Hawks. Those numbers speak to a guy who is capable of being a Top 6 defender on a good club.
However, while I can see a bad shoulder injury like Sopel supposedly had resulting in his many mishandled pucks last year, how does that explain how slow, out of position, and clueless he seemed out there?
Even when Sopel seemed like he might be a solid stay-at-home cagey veteran type in 07-08, he still was clearly very slow and an ugly site to behold on the ice. Last year he looked as bad out there as any defender I've ever seen get regular ice time. So what to expect from this year?
I honestly have no idea. The Hawks seem committed to him, but how much of that is to reestablish his value so they can dump the $2M+ he makes this year and next and replace him with some more youngsters for now and maybe a short term acquisition at the trade deadline? Personally I hope that's the plan, because despite the track record, these days I don't see Sopel being a Top 6 defender on a winning club. I'd much rather see him be their 7th defenseman while a kid like Hendry gets the chance to prove he's a viable player.
If JQ is committed to Sopel and/or they really don't have any other alternatives, then I'd at least ask that he be paired with Campbell. Sopel is a pure stay-at-home type with a decent shot from the point who struggles due to a lack of speed. This would give Campbell a physical partner who hangs back while he rushes, but also could can take advantage of the space opened up at the point. On the flipsie, Campbell's speed allows him to make up for Sopel's total lack thereof.
Hendry #6
Age: 25
08-09: 0 G, 0 A, -1, 10:06 ATOI in 9 games
Hendry, like the Hammer, profited from the injury-plagued defensive unit the Hawks had in 07-08 to get some serious ice time. He appeared in 40 games and skated over 17 minutes per game.
However, last year he took a major step back, making the club out of training camp only to be passed over by journeymen like Walker and Aaron Johnson, as well on the prospect list by HJ. This year Hendry again made the team out of camp, but is sitting behind Sopel.
So what do the Hawks have here? Hard to say, but as I mentioned above, I'd prefer seeing if he can be a legitimate defender to watching Sopel labor away out there. At best Sopel is a contributor this year who is dumped next year as the Hawks free up cap space. So with no future and doubts about his abilities, why is Sopel getting ice time over Hendry, who just might emerge, a la HJ, when given regular ice time?
Again, hopefully the Sopel experiment is a short term thing - that he is either traded or waived once he shows himself at least as a capable NHLer, freeing the Hawks from his $2M+ hit this year and next. At that point I'm curious to see if Hendry, who has now bypassed the recently cut Aaron Johnson, can elevate to a legit NHL blueliner.
Huet #39
Age: 34
08-09: 20-15, 2.53 GAA, .909 Sv % in 41 games
I've been perplexed by the complete lack of faith Hawks fans are showing in Huet. Two key points are completely being overlooked here:
1) Huet has an undeniably strong regular season track record, finishing in the Top 10 in GAA or Sv % in multiple seasons throughout his career (including in 05-06, when he lead the league in Sv %).
2) Huet was very solid in the regular season for the Hawks last year, with GAA and Sv % numbers that put him in the top half of the league.
I won't deny that Huet is a MAJOR question mark when it comes to the Hawks winning the Cup. But those questions shouldn't arise until we reach the post-season, somewhere Huet has yet to accomplish anything.
That's not to say Huet has choked in the playoffs. In 05-06 he played very well for the Canadiens, but got no support and lost in the first round 4-2. In 07-08 he was capable for the Caps, but lost a heart-breaking 7 games series again in the first round.
So here's what you should expect from Huet - he's not a workhorse, only once starting more than half his teams games. But he can be anywhere from good to great as your #1 during the regular season. And come the playoffs, he so far has been capable, but not overwhelming.
Would I prefer a guy with more post-season success on his resume in net? Of course. But I definitely didn't want Khabi back. Khabi couldn't stay healthy and got hurt when it mattered most - down the stretch in 07-08 and in the Detroit series last year. And the alternatives out there are no better than Huet, in fact probably clearly worse.
So give the Frenchie a chance and assume he'll get it done in the regular season. Then come the playoffs, we can all cast our collective doubts while we hope that with a far better supporting cast than he's ever had before, Huet is good enough to take us to the promised land.
Niemi #31
Age: 26
08-09: 1-1, 3.40 GAA, .846 Sv % in 3 games
Crawford #50
Age: 24
08-09: No NHL statistics
Signed out of Finland for a decent chunk of change last year, Niemi spent the year in the AHL adjusting to the North American style of play. He did ably - didn't set the world on fire, but also was good enough to be brought back again this year. Crawford looked pretty tough in 07-08 filling in for an injured Khabi for five games, but last season he also was stuck in the AHL, where he was promising but didn't blow anyone away.
Combined, these two did enough to make the Hawks confident that they had a respectable pairing for Huet, allowing them to let Khabi walk. Much like last year, through training camp this year neither had done anything to really set themselves apart, but both remain viable #2 or even future #1 options.
But can either of these guys deliver on that promise of unseating Huet as the #1, be it now or in a season or two? Who's to say - goalies are notoriously hard to predict. They are very streaky and often times are successful based as much on the team and system in front of them as anything else.
At the very least Niemi and Crawford seem capable of being able back-ups (something Huet absolutely needs). And between them, the Hawks have two shots to either catch a hot hand or luck into a guy who develops into a legit #1 in the NHL.
One thing to remember - it's not unheard of for a rookie goaltender to come in and unseat a proven vet. In fact, that happens fairly regularly in the NHL. So while I'm not counting on either of these two to do that - both because of my faith in Huet and my doubts in them - I do consider it a possibility. If one gets in a groove and Huet does struggle, the win-now attitude the Hawks clearly have will force JQ to ride the hot hand. And like many a team before them, the Hawks could just ride an unknown rookie to post-season success.
Here before the season I gave some introductory thoughts on how saw the Hawks regular season shaking out and then here last week I reviewed my thoughts on the forwards and what I expected from them.
Now, a mere two weeks into the season, I finally get to the blueliners:
Keith #2
Age: 26
08-09: 8 G, 36 A, +33, 25:43 ATOI in 77 games
The straw that stirs the drink, I've argued before (echoing the thoughts of many other learned Hawks fans) that Keith is the most important player on the team. I think in the playoffs Seabrook really took a step forward on both ends and that Campbell showed himself a capable veteran on his own end, but the fact remains that Keith is still the heart and soul of both the defense and the squad as a whole.
That Keith has been a plus thirty in each of the last two seasons while leading the team in ice time and always matching up against the other team's top skaters tells you all you need to know. This guy is an elite defender who may not get the hype but certainly deserves it.
The Hawks will soon lock up Keith longterm and chew up a boatload of salary cap space in doing so, but we'll be happy campers for it. He really is an offensive and defensive force who gives every bit of himself on every shift, every night. I think the Hawks players would agree that Keith would be the last guy they'd want to lose.
This year I see more of the same from Keith - tons of ice time, great plus-minus, and a very solid point total as he sparks a potent offense. Don't underestimate that impact of his game - not just Keith, but the entire Hawks defense. That most of the Hawks blueliners can really skate, pass, and shoot makes the already skilled group of forwards even more productive. Skating a bit lately myself I've come to realize the huge difference having offensively capable defenders can be. Keith and Co. fill that bill as good as any unit in the league.
Seabrook #7
Age: 24
08-09: 8 G, 18 A, +23, 23:19 ATOI in 82 games
First and foremost, I have to admit my bias for Seabrook, as he's my 3-month old daughter's favorite player. Being a sports fan and avid athlete myself, I'm of the opinion every one needs their own number (although mine has changed often throughout the years) and thus decided that Lily's is 7, as she was born on 7-7. So when it came time to pick her favorite Blackhawk, Seabrook was an obvious choice.
This choice was cemented when he scored an OT goal to seal the greatest comeback in Hawks history in what just happened to be Lily's first Hawks game (I found an actual baby Hawks sweater online and everything - not a tshirt that looks like a jersey, an actual hockey jersey that's been shrunk down to baby size).
But I think having Seabrook as her first favorite Hawk will serve Lily well. As I mentioned above, Seabrook took things to another level last year in the playoffs. He's always been a solid sidekick to Keith, but in the post-season he elevated his importance on the power play and on regular shifts against the top players every night.
While all the focus has been on the cap space hijinx the Hawks will have to pull off to keep the Big Three (Kane, Toews, and Keith) in the fold after this year w/o losing major pieces, it's also scary to note that Seabrook will put the team in a similar place the following season. And the way he's been playing, I don't see how the Hawks can let him go.
With that big shot and quiet confidence from the point, Seabrook has become an offensive factor. And with good size, solid speed, and a great feel for the ice, he remains a defensive zone presence. I think this year Seabrook will elevate to top tier status and hope that's recognized by Team Canada (tho giving the guy an extra two weeks off would have its own rewards).
I just hope the Hawks can find a way to sacrifice enough of the cap space with the likes of Barker, Buff, et al to ensure that Seabrook joins Toews, Kane, Hossa, Bolland, Versteeg, Campbell, and Keith as longterm core Hawks.
Campbell #51
Age: 30
08-09: 7 G, 45 A, +5, 22:34 ATOI in 82 games
With all this talk of salary cap casualties to come, it's easy to point to Campbell's behemoth contract and his lack of awe-inspiring impact last season as a major misstep for the Hawks. But as I've said before, I don't full agree. I do agree that the Hawks screwed up when they signed Campbell last off-season. But I believe the mistake was in not offering him a 12-year deal to lessen the salary cap impact, as has become the norm now.
At a $5M hit instead of a $7M, Campbell is looking a bit better. And when you really delve into the value and rarity of a blazing fast offensive defenseman of his type, you start to see that from a purely hockey standpoint, adding Campbell into this mix was a real victory for the Hawks.
As I said above, one of the reasons the Hawks offense is so potent is because they have so many defensemen making it all go. And Campbell is definitely the best of the group in doing that. In case you thought Campbell had a disappointing season last year, consider this - he set career highs in assists, points, games, and shots on goal.
Yep, career highs. The Hawks paid him based on an impressive body of work, but Campbell came out and out-performed that body. So how could this guy be considered a disappointment by so many Hawks fans?
What was most encouraging to me was that Campbell elevated his defense tremendously in the playoffs. As a veteran who'd been through the battles previously, Campbell understood that his first job was to lock things down in his own end and I believe he did a very solid job of it. Sure, he had a couple of mistakes, let a couple of bouncing pucks get by him. But in all, I thought he was a plus defender from a strictly defensive perspective and showed that come crunch time, Campbell understood what was needed to win.
This year I see Campbell having an even better season - maybe not statistically, but certainly in his impact on the Hawks. No longer is he the big free agent signee nor much of a focus of the team. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, and Huet will all get far greater scrutiny from the fans and media. I think that will allow Campbell to settle in to what he does best and finally make people see what an asset he is.
Hjalmarsson #4
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 14:59 ATOI in 21 games
After getting into 13 games when the Hawks defense was decimated late in 07-08, the Hammer was buried in Rockford all season as surprise contributors Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker became early season regulars. But when Wisniewski was traded to the Ducks for Pahlsson, HJ jumped over Johnson and never looked back.
Looking nowhere near the 6-3 he's listed at (nor the 194 lbs), the baby-faced blueliner showed impressive grit and tenacity, focusing his game on the defensive end and turning himself into a reliable player worthy of significant minutes by the time the postseason rolled around. There he continued to develop and at no time was the Hammer a detriment to the team - an impressive feat for a 21-year old with so little experience playing in the ever-demanding environment of a Stanley Cup playoff run.
Sure, he still makes his mistakes and isn't quite the stay-at-home rock you wish you'd have to pair with Campbell. But he's well on his way and could just be that guy come the playoffs. Everyone raves about him and from what I've seen its well-deserved. Given some maturity, confidence, and experience, I think the Hammer could definitely be a key piece to a long-awaited Cup run.
And that'd be a great thing on a lot of levels. It'd be outstanding to have a young stay-at-home type with some grit who isn't costing you a lot against the cap. But it'd also be nice to free Campbell up to be more of an offensive defenseman. Ideally, Campbell is skating with a guy who can cover his aggressiveness, as opposed to last year, where Campbell had to be both committing hard offensively and then also skating back to make up for a weak defender on his other side.
It seems clear that both Campbell and JQ respect HJ's ability to handle himself and Campbell's rushes, and I'd say I agree. I think this kid continues to elevate his game and does become a vital piece of the Hawks blue line going forward.
Barker #25
Age: 23
08-09: 6 G, 34 A, -6, 18:21 ATOI in 68 games
While Skille's daily up-and-down roster maneuvering this year is about the best evidence of how stupid the NHL cap is, the fact that Barker had to wait around in the AHL to start last season is pretty good too. After a 07-08 in which he had 6 goals and 12 assists in only 45 games, Barker clearly deserved to be an everyday NHLer. But due to the cap, he was forced to miss the first weeks of the season as the Hawks sorted out their finances, before finally coming up and making a major impact on the offensive end.
His 5 PPG and 24 PPA both lead the team, and they were well-earned. Barker is definitely a strong player on the point, at least in JQ's system, which calls on the blueliners to throw the puck on net early and often. Barker also was solid 5-on-5, showing solid skills carrying the puck up-ice and finding open teammates.
However, Barker has and probably always will leave a heck of a lot to be desired on defense. He did step up physically, both using his length and size to his advantage and in getting into fights and tussles to keep the other team honest. However, he made fartoo many mental and physical errors, many of them leading directly to goals against.
A lack of confidence and intensity always seemed to be holding Barker back, but now those things seem to be behind him. However, he still hasn't figured out how to be a good defensive-defenseman, or even a capable one, and for that reason I think the Hawks would be wise to make Barker one of their first cap casualties. The offense he brings is rare and valuable, but someone has to go and I think Barker's cap number and defensive issues put him at the bottom of the list of valuable Hawks.
Don't get me wrong, though. While he's still in a Hawks uni, Barker remains an asset. I'm just saying he's less of one than the other great players they have and someone has to go. In the meantime though, I see Barker continuing to develop on both ends of the ice, even as he continues to make mistakes on both ends, and be an asset for the Hawks this year in much the same way he was last year. I don't foresee any great leap forward, but just a repeat of last year will mean Barker has done what the Hawks needed of him.
Ideally I'd like to see Barker paired with a strong defender with some athleticism (I think the Hammer could develop into that very guy). Do that and I think the Hawks would get the most out of Barker that could rightfully be expected.
Sopel #5
Age: 32
08-09: 1 G, 1 A, -4, 13:49 ATOI in 23 games
I have no idea what to make of this guy. Last year was a total zero for Sopel, as injuries and the team's lack of confidence in him essentially made him a non-entity after the first month. The early reports this year are that significant injuries which weren't publicized (as is the practice in the NHL) really hindered him, but that now he's ready to contribute again.
On some level you can believe that - often times unpublished injuries really hold a guy back and Sopel does have a solid-looking track record. Before last year, the previous six seasons looked like this - 8 G and 17 A, 7 G and 30 A, 10 G and 32 A, 2 G and 26 A, 5 G and 23 A, and finally 1 G and 19 A in 07-08 with the Hawks. Throughout that period he had an ATOI over 20 minutes and overall was a plus, including a +9 that season with the Hawks. Those numbers speak to a guy who is capable of being a Top 6 defender on a good club.
However, while I can see a bad shoulder injury like Sopel supposedly had resulting in his many mishandled pucks last year, how does that explain how slow, out of position, and clueless he seemed out there?
Even when Sopel seemed like he might be a solid stay-at-home cagey veteran type in 07-08, he still was clearly very slow and an ugly site to behold on the ice. Last year he looked as bad out there as any defender I've ever seen get regular ice time. So what to expect from this year?
I honestly have no idea. The Hawks seem committed to him, but how much of that is to reestablish his value so they can dump the $2M+ he makes this year and next and replace him with some more youngsters for now and maybe a short term acquisition at the trade deadline? Personally I hope that's the plan, because despite the track record, these days I don't see Sopel being a Top 6 defender on a winning club. I'd much rather see him be their 7th defenseman while a kid like Hendry gets the chance to prove he's a viable player.
If JQ is committed to Sopel and/or they really don't have any other alternatives, then I'd at least ask that he be paired with Campbell. Sopel is a pure stay-at-home type with a decent shot from the point who struggles due to a lack of speed. This would give Campbell a physical partner who hangs back while he rushes, but also could can take advantage of the space opened up at the point. On the flipsie, Campbell's speed allows him to make up for Sopel's total lack thereof.
Hendry #6
Age: 25
08-09: 0 G, 0 A, -1, 10:06 ATOI in 9 games
Hendry, like the Hammer, profited from the injury-plagued defensive unit the Hawks had in 07-08 to get some serious ice time. He appeared in 40 games and skated over 17 minutes per game.
However, last year he took a major step back, making the club out of training camp only to be passed over by journeymen like Walker and Aaron Johnson, as well on the prospect list by HJ. This year Hendry again made the team out of camp, but is sitting behind Sopel.
So what do the Hawks have here? Hard to say, but as I mentioned above, I'd prefer seeing if he can be a legitimate defender to watching Sopel labor away out there. At best Sopel is a contributor this year who is dumped next year as the Hawks free up cap space. So with no future and doubts about his abilities, why is Sopel getting ice time over Hendry, who just might emerge, a la HJ, when given regular ice time?
Again, hopefully the Sopel experiment is a short term thing - that he is either traded or waived once he shows himself at least as a capable NHLer, freeing the Hawks from his $2M+ hit this year and next. At that point I'm curious to see if Hendry, who has now bypassed the recently cut Aaron Johnson, can elevate to a legit NHL blueliner.
Huet #39
Age: 34
08-09: 20-15, 2.53 GAA, .909 Sv % in 41 games
I've been perplexed by the complete lack of faith Hawks fans are showing in Huet. Two key points are completely being overlooked here:
1) Huet has an undeniably strong regular season track record, finishing in the Top 10 in GAA or Sv % in multiple seasons throughout his career (including in 05-06, when he lead the league in Sv %).
2) Huet was very solid in the regular season for the Hawks last year, with GAA and Sv % numbers that put him in the top half of the league.
I won't deny that Huet is a MAJOR question mark when it comes to the Hawks winning the Cup. But those questions shouldn't arise until we reach the post-season, somewhere Huet has yet to accomplish anything.
That's not to say Huet has choked in the playoffs. In 05-06 he played very well for the Canadiens, but got no support and lost in the first round 4-2. In 07-08 he was capable for the Caps, but lost a heart-breaking 7 games series again in the first round.
So here's what you should expect from Huet - he's not a workhorse, only once starting more than half his teams games. But he can be anywhere from good to great as your #1 during the regular season. And come the playoffs, he so far has been capable, but not overwhelming.
Would I prefer a guy with more post-season success on his resume in net? Of course. But I definitely didn't want Khabi back. Khabi couldn't stay healthy and got hurt when it mattered most - down the stretch in 07-08 and in the Detroit series last year. And the alternatives out there are no better than Huet, in fact probably clearly worse.
So give the Frenchie a chance and assume he'll get it done in the regular season. Then come the playoffs, we can all cast our collective doubts while we hope that with a far better supporting cast than he's ever had before, Huet is good enough to take us to the promised land.
Niemi #31
Age: 26
08-09: 1-1, 3.40 GAA, .846 Sv % in 3 games
Crawford #50
Age: 24
08-09: No NHL statistics
Signed out of Finland for a decent chunk of change last year, Niemi spent the year in the AHL adjusting to the North American style of play. He did ably - didn't set the world on fire, but also was good enough to be brought back again this year. Crawford looked pretty tough in 07-08 filling in for an injured Khabi for five games, but last season he also was stuck in the AHL, where he was promising but didn't blow anyone away.
Combined, these two did enough to make the Hawks confident that they had a respectable pairing for Huet, allowing them to let Khabi walk. Much like last year, through training camp this year neither had done anything to really set themselves apart, but both remain viable #2 or even future #1 options.
But can either of these guys deliver on that promise of unseating Huet as the #1, be it now or in a season or two? Who's to say - goalies are notoriously hard to predict. They are very streaky and often times are successful based as much on the team and system in front of them as anything else.
At the very least Niemi and Crawford seem capable of being able back-ups (something Huet absolutely needs). And between them, the Hawks have two shots to either catch a hot hand or luck into a guy who develops into a legit #1 in the NHL.
One thing to remember - it's not unheard of for a rookie goaltender to come in and unseat a proven vet. In fact, that happens fairly regularly in the NHL. So while I'm not counting on either of these two to do that - both because of my faith in Huet and my doubts in them - I do consider it a possibility. If one gets in a groove and Huet does struggle, the win-now attitude the Hawks clearly have will force JQ to ride the hot hand. And like many a team before them, the Hawks could just ride an unknown rookie to post-season success.
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