It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, so I figure you've got nothing better to do than read about 3,500 words on the Hawks. Especially with them playing so well and Hossa about to enter the mix, hopefully you're like me and looking to take in as much of the Hawks as you can right now.
So, with one fourth of the schedule in the books, here's my four-part take on some of the biggest stories and important numbers thus far:
1 - "THE GREAT SALARY CULL OF 2010"
I stole this phrasing from one of the Hawks' blogs I follow, but of course now can't remember which. I owe them credit and am sorry for not being able to give it specifically, so I'll just provide a run-down of all the blogs I frequent instead:
-ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers - longtime Score guy and Blackhawks pre- and post-gamer, he provides a nice mix of lockerroom insight and typical blog commentary - something that is far too rare. Definitely worth following.
-SecondCityHockey.com - these guys are responsible for "The Committed Indian" the admirable torch-carrier for the old "Blue Line." Great mix of comedy, insight, and analytics on their website - I only just started reading them with regularity and wish I had done so sooner.
-DailyHerald.com's Tim Sassone - none of the three local papers have a true Hawks blog that provides real commentary, instead they're all content with beat writers giving you quick blurbs on the latest news from the lockerroom. That stuff is interesting and all, but I'd like to have someone taking that info a step further and providing some conjecture and analysis. Oh well, I guess there's a reason newspapers are dying. As it is, Sassone provides the most regular and informed updates of the group, so definitely worth checking in there to see about line set-ups, player health, transactions, etc. My favorite national hockey site (Yahoo's Puck Daddy) regularly links to the Herald for its Hawk news, so that should tell you something.
-ChicagoNow.com's Jay Zawaski - another longtime Score guy (producer extraordinaire), JZ gives you a lighter, casual take. I was particularly won over by his post detailing hockey etiquette for all the initiated bandwagon Hawks fans. I'm no Hawks fan snob and am glad to have the team expand beyond its cult following, but I also respect the team and the game and appreciate someone trying to help others do the same.
Ok, back to the Salary Cull. First and foremost, we can all rest easy that Kane, Toews, and Keith will be with the Hawks for a long time. I know people love to scream about how the sky is falling, but there was no way any of these guys were ever going anywhere. Toews and Kane didn't get the lifetime contracts this time, but unless one of them really hits the skids, they'll get it come the end of the impending 5-year deal.
Now we can throw away the nonsensical discussions of one of them not coming back and instead focus on the very real fact that their signings will necessitate the prematurely end of a few Hawks' careers. At one point I made the statement that these extensions wouldn't affect the make-up of the team this year, because they wouldn't go on the books this year, and thus people we're idiots for worrying about who the Hawks would have to move immediately upon signing those extensions.
The moral of the story - don't ever make declaratory statements about the NHL cap. Turns out that the cap system, among a million other things, dictates that you can only commit up to a certain amount of salary for the following season (the actual limit is complicated, but it's in the ballpark of whatever the current year's limit is). Thus, the Hawks will be affected this year by the extensions.
The most obvious move seems to be getting rid of Brent Sopel, a guy who brings little to the table and kills your cap flexibility this year and next with his $2.3M hit. As the clear 6th defenseman, he's a luxury the Hawks simply can't afford.
Unfortunately, as a mediocre (at best) defenseman making $2.3M this year and next, I doubt Sopel is a luxury many other teams can afford either. However, the Hawks might just be able to get out from under him by sweetening the deal with a prospect or simply finding a team desperate for blue line help who views Sopel's remaining deal as short and reasonable enough for a veteran defender.
Personally I hope they don't have to part with any prospect who could end up contributing at the NHL level. I'm not worried about losing a good prospect, just the reality that the Hawks roster over the next few seasons will feature a number of youngsters because the Hawks won't be able to afford anything else. So let's hope there's some other way to make the horrendously ugly and unskilled Sopel attractive to some other team.
Once Sopel's gone and the extensions are signed, then the attention will turn to who goes this off-season. You know what? I don't care right now. This team is amazingly talented and aside Sopel, I pretty much love everyone on the roster. Even you, Troy Brouwer (more on that later). My buddy and I were talking that in 20 years we'll look back at this squad and be amazed by the number of studs all on one team.
So I'm not gonna spend much more of this season worrying about the off-season - we'll have plenty of time for that. I'm just gonna enjoy this mix we have and see how far it can take us.
2. HOW GOOD ARE THEY?
It's hard to look at one section of the season and predict with confidence what the rest of the year will look like. Teams go through ups and downs, injuries take their tolls, and late season deals can change a lot. Scheduling is a factor, as is age and experience.
Still, I do think what we've seen from the Hawks is pretty damn encouraging. Yes, we've played a boatload of home games, with 12 of our 20 taking place at the UC (technically the opening night SOL in Finland was a home game as well, while the OT W the next night was a road game, but I'm not counting either in my home-away analysis).
But in those 12 home games, we've gone 10-2. That's pretty nasty, especially given that we've played a solid slate of opponents along the way. And with this great 3-0 start to the Circus Trip (again, against good opponents), the Hawks are sitting at 4-3-1 on the road, definitely respectable.
Our Power Play unit is right near the Top 10, our PK in and out of the top spot, and both our goals for and against floating around the Top 5. That's some damn impressive hockey.
But what I like most? We've done all this while facing more than our fair share of injuries. As we'll soon find out, losing Hossa has been a MAJOR blow. It's been easy to forget that as we never had him to begin with, but remember that this guy might just be better than anyone the Hawks have - Kane, Toews, Keith - all of them. Hossa has certainly accomplished more already, and while it remains to be seen how important he is to the team dynamic, strictly from a talent level of their games today, Hossa probably is the Hawks top player.
So everything we've accomplished so far has been done without our best guy. Wow. Throw in the games that Toews and Bolland (our top 2 centers) missed, as well as Eager and Burish (two of the better 4th liners in hockey) and you start to think that as good as we've been, it's not only possible, but likely that we'll be better.
Having said all that, talent on paper and delivering on the ice are two very different things. As is delivering in the regular season and doing it in pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. The Hawks seemed to show last year that they are far more like the Wings (strong in the regular season, even better in the playoffs) than the Sharks (amazing in the regular season, paper tigers in the playoffs). But one year and a few series victories aren't enough. This Hawks team needs to show it can capitalize on its absurd collection of talent and hang a post-season banner in the UC.
Honestly, given the Cull that's coming, I've changed my view from wanting to make the Finals to wanting the whole damn thing. The sports landscape is littered with players who won or contended for a title when they were young, believing they were part of a dynasty and would have that sort of success their whole careers. Far too many of them never reach the promised land again.
Yes we're young, but the time to win it all is now, and there's no guarantee our window will ever get wider, if not slam shut next year. Sports are unpredictable that way, so for 2009-2010, I'm officially in the Cup-or-Bust camp.
3. FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS FIGURE
Sure that line is a bit folksy, but it's also a nice piece of wisdom to keep in mind when dealing with the stat-infested world of today's sports.
Case in point - Brouwer and Ladd. Everyone talks about how valuable they are, how they help in so many facets of the game, how multi-talented they are. There's such an appreciation of their under-appreciated qualities that it's easy to forget their true role on the team.
While it's not an exact science, I'm a big fan of the ATOI stat (Average Time On Ice). JQ's not perfect, but he knows he's coaching for his life (because of the incredible expectations this team has engendered), so he's going to be playing the guys that give him the best chance to win as much as he possibly can. Things certainly have evolved as the year has progressed, but still, the numbers through the first 22 games have to mean something:
-Stars - Bolland (19:23), Kane (19:14), Toews (18:42), Sharp (18:02), Versteeg (17:57)
Is there any surprise to that list? Bolland's numbers are probably slightly elevated and Toews' a bit depressed due to Toews' injury. Other than that, those are clearly your Top 5 forwards and they're on the ice as such. The guy I point to is Sharp - he's making closer to $4M than the $3M a lot of the other forwards are getting, but his ice time is also more in line with that of the $6M+ guys Kane, Toews, and soon Hossa. His numbers also put him more in line with those guys, which makes you wonder if he's actually a salary value and someone the Hawks need to find a way to keep around.
-Role Players - Madden (16:49), Buff (16:40), Brouwer (15:20), Ladd (13:15)
As if we couldn't tell this from what he's done already - aside the stars, Madden is as valuable of a forward as we have. And it's not even the playoffs yet, when JQ will get all match-up happy and quick shift all over to keep Madden out against their top line. But what surprised me here is the fact that Buff is getting so much more ice time than Brouwer, when supposedly Brouwer has passed up Buff, and that Ladd is so far back of both guys, when he was supposed to be the most polished second tier guy.
In fairness, as I said, recent trends show Buff getting less time and Brouwer more, but while Brouwer has most certainly elevated his play from worthless to productive, he's not quite the all-around role player some are making him out to be. And the numbers back that up - his 6 G and 5 A are very solid, but 4 of those goals have come on the power play. Now that itself speaks to his value, as does his high hit total, but Brouwer is still just Even on the year w/o much for even strength scoring.
I'm no Buff fan, but given his -4 and the continued inconsistent play, the fact that he's still logging the same or more ice time than Brouwer says that Brouwer's got some work left to do. However, I 100% have to admit that coupled with Bolland's emergence, I've learned not to judge guys for failing to make an impact in their first years. Similarly, if a guy doesn't seem to be doing much but the coach keeps playing him, that probably means it's just a matter of time before he does.
Both Bolland and Brouwer frustrated me with their inability to make any real impact as rookies, despite significant ice time. But now both have played themselves into valuable roles on the club, with Bolland a legit scoring line center and Brouwer a legit supporting cast member. So while I'm not gonna go overboard like the hype machine that's behind Brouwer now, I will definitely say that he's established himself as a productive player and someone who could develop into a key component to a title team. I didn't think I'd ever say this, but Brouwer could be on his way to being a guy I'm very glad to have around.
Another guy who's already achieved that distinction is Ladd, but his ATOI doesn't seem to bakc that up. Remember, this is a Hawks team that's had to play a lot of garbage forwards because of all the injuries. So how has Ladd not profited from more time? Is it something as simple as Ladd not having the legs to carry more minutes? Or does he just not fit well on special teams (I noticed last year that while everyone loved him defensively, Ladd never played on the PK)? Or is Ladd not as strong as we thought after last year's break-out?
That last question will be answered this off-season, when Ladd is up to make some decent money just as the Hawks are trying to cut salary. Will Ladd be a nice value buy once we're forced to dump Sharp, Buff, Barker, etc or will he be one of the first causalities, replaced by a minimum salaried journeyman or rook?
I've always liked Ladd and found him a good mix of talents to compliment any line. But his lack of PT suggests that maybe he's not doing as much as I first thought, or that he's taking something off the table as often as he's bringing it. I'm gonna pay extra attention to him and see if I can't get a better idea of how valuable he is. While the numbers don't tell you everything, Ladd has followed up his +13 in 07-08 and +26 in 08-09 with a very pretty +7 this year. Doesn't that sound like a guy you want to both keep around and give a good deal of minutes too? It sure does to me, which makes me wonder why JQ doesn't trust him on the ice more.
Finally, a name you don't see on my TOI lists is Kopecky, who so far seems to be a disappointment. Not that the expectations were ever to great for this kid, whose never been one to fill the stat sheet. But there was some thinking that he'd elevate from a 4th liner to a legit role player. The fact that he's logging the same minutes as the Ebbetts, Frasiers, Eagers, and Bickells of the world suggests otherwise. As does Kopecky's -5, worst on the club and approached only by Buff (-4) and Sopel (-3), two of the Hawk's least impressive players.
In fact, with a $1.2m cap hit this year and next, it's possible that Kopecky could be gone, maybe even this season. Brian Bickell has drawn some pretty rave reviews during his recent call-up (cut short due to the arrival of Hossa) - isn't it possible the Hawks would prefer his $500k salary this year (and probably the same next year) given how tight the books are? Be it in an effort to sign those extensions, make a deadline trade, or make room next off-season?
Kopecky does have size, can play both wing and center, and comes from a great franchise where he won a Cup. So the hope is that he will get it figured out and be a contributor. But if not, don't be surprised if Kopecky is a salary cap causality, maybe even this year.
PAINT BY NUMBERS
So what other numbers might provide us some insight?
-How about the fact that Barker and Sopel log only around 14 minutes a night each, but count a combined $5.4M against the cap this year and next? Good defenseman get around 20 minutes a game (as Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and HJ all do). Down at 14? You're nothing but a depth guy.
Now with 4 G and 7 A (3 and 3 on the PP), an Even plus/minus, and his youth, Barker can be justified this season as a luxury item they can afford. He's got rare offensive skills that make up for his weaknesses and allow him to be a valuable role player.
But Sopel? Give his minutes to Hendry and you won't see a reduction in anything but your salary cap. And they don't have to cut Sopel to lose his contract for cap purposes - putting him on waivers and then farming him out (if no other team claims him) removes his number from the books (although the Hawks still have to pay the bill, they don't get cap penalized for it).
Is there any way this guy is not now spending his last days in a Hawks uni?
-Kane's 23 points in 22 games suggest he's gone from really good to near-great. A point a game is the measure of a true star and given that he's rarely got to skate with either Toews or Hossa, you gotta believe his stat line will only get better. In the meantime, be equally as impressed by his +8 - the kid is really starting to become a force.
-Sharp's 6 goals in 22 games are well below the 30+ pace he's shown the past two seasons, but look deeper and you see that he's more than made up for it with 13 assists and a +7. The way he always adjusts his game to what the Hawks have needed tells me this is definitely a guy you want to keep around. Buff, Ladd, Barker, Kopecky, Sopel - that's where you cut your payroll. Not in Sharp, who's a bona fide Top 6 guy, a real leader, and as flexible as any frontline forward you'll find.
-Buff has 7 goals (2nd on the team to Kane), only 2 assists, and is a -4. I figured he'd be an absolute beast with the motivation of making Team USA, and while he's filled the net, I just think he's always going to be an enigma. He's playing well enough to still have significant trade value, so my hope is that this off-season, he's one of the first to go. In the meantime, Buff's got his work cut-out to avoid being pushed back to the 4th line when Bolland returns (as Brouwer and Ladd both look more deserving of winging Madden on the checking line).
-Keith (18 points, +8, 26:31 ATOI), Campbell (14 points, +7, 23:55 ATOI), Seabrook (10 points, +11, 23:51 ATOI), The Hammer (5 points, +6, 20:02 ATOI). Wow. Just look at those numbers. The emergence of The Hammer coupled with the stabilization of Campbell (those things are almost 100% related, by the way) has given the Hawks a Top 4 defensive unit as good as any. The difference between the Hawks team shots for and against are absurd - some of the best in the NHL by a longshot. These four guys deserve the lion's share of the credit for that.
-Toews (60.1%), Madden (57.4%), Frasier (51.9%), and Bolland (49.8%) have given the Hawks one of the best face-off groups in the NHL. All four guys are doing better than expected. Toews has long been good, but 60% is the gold standard. Madden has always been a plus in the face-off circle, but generally in the 52-55% range, not over 57%. Frasier might just be playing himself into a play-off role (something he didn't earn last year) by jumping from a face-off liability to an asset. And Bolland has shrunk the gap of his losses to the point where he's basically a wash.
Sure, the Hawks will struggle with whichever non-center (Versteeg, Sharp, Kopecky?) is forced to play out of position while Bolland is out. But JQ can limit that by having three different centers he can confidently throw into the face-off circle after every whistle. Come playoff time, winning more face-offs than you lose - especially in key situations - becomes a significant factor to success.
In all, I'm feeling damn good about where these Hawks are and where they're going. Let's hope we're soon talking about the official extensions and the equally joyful end of the Sopel era.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Even Steven
The Hawks weren't even out of the off-season transactions period when we learned that a guy we just signed to the biggest deal in franchise history - Hossa - would miss a significant chunk of the season. I think right then we all should have guessed what kind of year it would be.
I don't mean that in terms of success, just that this year will, among other things, be remembered for a string of injuries providing new and unique challenges to the Hawks skaters and coaches.
Given how healthy the Hawks were last year, it's little surprise the law of averages would lead to a rash of injuries this season. We all know that few things in the world are more powerful than the concept of Even Steven. And I don't think we appreciated it enough last year, but the overall team health was unworldly. Besides Sopel (whose injury was a godsend), the only other players to miss significant time were Sharp, Burish, Wisniewski, and Khabi. Sharp still managed 61 games and Burish 66, while Khabi racked up 42 appearances in net. Between Chicago and Anaheim, Wisniewski played 48 games.
I wouldn't have guessed it possible to get through an entire season where the "big" injuries to all the 20+ players who filled out your top 4 lines, top 6 defenders, and two goalies cost you one guy for 35 games, one for 20, another for 15, and maybe 5-10 starts in goal.
But it's all evening out this year. Hossa still hasn't played a minute in a Hawks uni (lookin at around 20+ games missed before he does). Burish will be out almost the entire regular season (playing 10+ games this year will be a success). Eager (out 13 games) and Toews (6 games) have already missed more time than they did last season. So when Bolland was shelved for 3-4 months due to back issues that have been around for a while, was anyone shocked?
My first reaction was actually happiness. I didn't like the initial "day-to-day" prognosis, as it seemed pretty clear Bolland would be out for a while. So I was glad that the powers that be on Madison decided to just go ahead and order the necessary surgery for Bolland. This will get him back in time to be at full speed come the post-season, while also allowing the team to begin making plans for his absence.
That led to my second reaction - what now? Toews' recent return and Hossa's impending one become all the more important, as the Hawks were running out of legit Top 6 forwards and out of NHL-caliber skaters. Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp are proven front-liners, but a contending team has the likes of Ladd and Buff as plus checking line types or complimentary scoring line guys, not the #4 and #5 scoring/playmaking options. But w/o Toews, Bolland, and Hossa, that was the role those guys were forced into.
And the 4th line, such an asset for the Hawks last year, was being filled out with the likes of Frasier, Hendry, and Ebbett. Could all of those guys contribute at the NHL level? Maybe. But for Hendry, it wouldn't be as a forward, for Frasier, it wouldn't be as the top guy on a line, and for Ebbett, it wouldn't be as a winger. Yet, again, those were the roles those guys were being asked to fill.
So let's be happy that Toews is back already (notching a goal in his first game and a nasty shoot-out tally in his second) and that Hossa isn't too far behind (he'll begin contact practices and could re-join the team on the Circus Trip). With those two (and Eager) all back and both Bolland and Burish out, what exactly can we expect to see out of the Hawks lines? It's always impossible to tell the actual set-up JQ will roll out each night, but let's start up the middle and try to figure out a vague overview from there.
Toews will center the 1st line and Madden will take the checking line. From there, it starts to get more uncertain.
Early reports had Versteeg moving over to center (as he did immediately following Bolland's injury), but then last night Ebbett moved up to center the 2nd line, allowing Versteeg to remain on a wing. Based on Ebbett's solid numbers as the #2 center for the Ducks last year (8 G, 24 A in only 48 games as a rookie), it seems that he could be a capable centerman when surrounded by the right guys.
However, JQ seems to like the Versteeg and Kane combo, which when centered with Ebbett, creates a very, very small line. Versteeg and Kane are listed at the same height and weight, making all 5-10, 180 of Ebbett the "size" on the line. That's a little bit scary.
Plus, when Hossa returns, someone has to become the healthy scratch. The heavy odds are Frasier or Ebbett, with the superior player getting the nod as the 4th line centerman. Now it is possible that Ebbett remains on the 2nd line, Frasier is the scratch, and Kopecky centers the 4th line. And I'm glad to see that JQ is giving Ebbett a chance to show himself capable in that alignment.
But, relating back to my early post about the Hawks' lack of a fighter, I don't see Frasier getting scratched. I think he's seen the writing on the wall and understands that if everyone's healthy for the playoffs, he'd again be the odd man out (possibly not even being on the active roster). So in the meantime, he's doing what he can to up his value - namely, filling the fighter role. At 6-1, 190, Frasier won't ever be the heavyweight Eager was, but he does seem to have the chops to at least fill the scrapper role Burish did, which should be enough for the Hawks.
Hence, once Hossa returns, I see the Hawks going with Versteeg centering the 2nd line and Frasier centering the 4th, while Ebbett serves as the healthy scratch. Because Ebbett can play center on a scoring line, the Hawks will have some nice flexibility to deal with the occasional injuries that surface throughout the year.
In looking at the center alignment, I would have guessed I'd be firmly against trying a winger out of position, as the Hawks did with both Versteeg and Sharp for significant stretches last year. Both were capable enough, but neither did nearly as well up the middle as they do on a wing. But the reality is that no one else quite fits. As I mentioned, Ebbett is the victim of the numbers game (and a bit underwhelming so far), Madden is firmly entrenched on the checking line (he's been damn good at a crucial spot - no reason to change that) and neither Kopecky nor Frasier really have the skills to center a scoring line.
So, it's up to Versteeg to again adjust to a new role, new linemates, and new expectations, something he's already done many a time in his year plus career with the Hawks. But I have faith he's up to it, especially if JQ puts the right guys around him. That means players with the hockey sense and physical skills necessary to profit from the often amazing playmaking Versteeg provides (although I've also noticed that Versteeg often tries to do too much, and gets himself into trouble - for him to truly elevate to star status, he's going to have to cut down on those overly aggressive errors).
One name I wouldn't have guessed as a good fit for The Steeg - Kane. It's always a fun idea to imagine two great playmakers on the same line, but that generally means you've left the other lines too weak and not provided those playmakers with the compliments they need.
However, in seeing the way Kane and Versteeg have clicked, I'm kinda hoping JQ keeps these two together. Aside Toews (and probably, we'll soon find out, Hossa), no one on the Hawks has the feel for the ice and ability to move with or without the puck that these two have. That allows them to play a nasty two-man game that creates a ton of pretty scoring chances.
I also don't think the Hawks balance would be effected by skating those two together on a single line. A top line featuring Toews and Hossa certainly wouldn't be lacking much of anything, as those guys bring playmaking, goal-scoring, size, and speed. And a third line featuring Madden winged by some combination of Sharp, Brouwer, Kopecky, Ladd, and/or Buff would be capable of both checking the top line and creating some offense itself.
So where's that leave things? I'm seeing Toews and Hossa up top, with Sharp on the wing. The other options here are Ladd, Brouwer, or Buff, but those guys all provide size, which isn't needed alongside Toews (6-1, 195) and Hossa (6-1, 210). Sharp's uncanny ability to snipe goals would play great alongside all the attention Toews and Hossa will command.
Although both Sharp and Hossa are big goal-scorers, so it's possible JQ puts a pure grinder like Brouwer up there to do the dirty work instead. While I'm still not sold on Brouwer, he has definitely been playing better than last year and might finally be getting his role. He's one of the tops in the NHL in checks and seems to understand that energy and all-out physicallity are his two main responsibilities. And when you throw in that the guy did score 41 goals in only 66 AHL games in 06-07, Brouwer might just develop the offensive touch to profit from skating with Toews and Hossa (something he failed at miserably last year).
Or Ladd could get the nod, as a guy capable of scoring when the opportunity presents itself, playing strong defense, and bringing a bit of size and grind alongside two stars. Ladd has really developed into a well-rounded compliment and probably could fit well on any Hawk line. That's a nice bit of flexibility, especially as JQ deals with the loss of his #2 center and plays the line merry-go-round game he loves so much.
On the Versteeg and Kane line, as mentioned above, size would seem to be the primary need out of their other winger. Obviously those two bring all the scoring and play-making you need, and in Versteeg even have some solid defense and grind. If JQ can live with a smallish line and doesn't use him with Toews and Hossa, Sharp could be a beautiful fit with Versteeg and Kane. Again, the value Versteeg and Kane both bring is setting up plays every time they touch the puck. And no one on the team (except maybe Hossa) is better suited to capitalize on great play-making than Sharp. He's made a hell of a career banging home the opportunities others create.
However, if JQ does want to ensure a bit of size and balance on his lines, anyone in the Ladd-Brouwer-Buff group can capably provide some beef and grit alongside Versteeg and Kane. Buff is frustrating for all the chances his stone hands and iffy skating blow, but he also is an absolute horse and has shown an ability to score in bunches. And his big body camped out in front of the net would draw defenders, creating space for Kane and Versteeg to work in. My one fear - skating Buff and Kane together puts the team's two most likely skaters to take a shift off on the same line, which could mean a lot of chances the other way.
However the Scoring lines shake out, we've got a third line featuring Madden alongside two wingers out of the Sharp-Buff-Brouwer-Ladd group. No matter who that is, you're gonna have size, the ability to grind, and most important, the ability to play some defense against the other team's top line every night. A 30+ goal scorer like Sharp wouldn't seem like the right fit on a checking line, but he's long been a good defensive winger and Madden's speed and tenacity do create a lot of chances Sharp could capitalize on. And as the Hawks found last year, getting consistent scoring from three lines makes you hard to beat.
Finally, the fourth line would feature Frasier in the middle, winged by Kopecky and Eager. It's really encouraging to lay that out, as it shows that the Hawks again will be skating one of the more talented energy lines you'll find. Kopecky is solid defensively and can move well, Eager is a high motor behemoth who skates surprisingly well and can score, and Frasier won't hurt you as a guy looking to earn his stripes by defending his teammates. Sounds like a nice 4th line mix to me.
Having said all that, losing everything Bolland brings is definitely a major blow to the Hawks - don't believe anything else. My point with the above is just to lay out that the Hawks still have enough capable players to remain a strong top-to-bottom team until Bolland comes back. And when he does return, the extra ice time that Brouwer, Buff, Ladd, Kopecky, and even Frasier and Ebbett get in the meantime will only strengthen the Hawks' depth for a playoff run.
Final point, related to our blueline (which I believe is set at the Top 4 - Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and the Hammer are all legit top flight defenders). I don't know if Hendry is any good, but I do know that Sopel is terrible and only going to get worse as he continues to age and get slower. While he hasn't been as horrible as last season, Sopel is definitely slow and completely mismatched with Barker, himself not terribly fleet of foot defensively and prone to mistakes.
The Hawks need a defender next to Barker who can move enough to cover Cam's occasional lapses and doesn't make many himself. They don't need this guy to have any offensive skills - Barker has more than enough for both of them, especially given that this is our third D pairing. This blueliner just has to hold down the fort and clean up Barker's messes. Sopel makes too many mistakes of his own and certainly has no make-up speed or innate defensive ability to help out enough with Barker.
So I just don't get why the Hawks can't see that Sopel should be your regular healthy scratch on the blueline, while the Hawks go about seeing if Hendry or someone else down at Rockford (or off waivers) can be a capable 6th defenseman. And there's no time like the present, because if they can't find a viable option (a very likely possibility), then the Hawks need to be ready to make a move before the trade deadline - no easy task given their salary cap issues.
Especially because this off-season the Hawks will need to farm out Sopel (thus eliminating his salary from their cap), why waste any more time before you start looking for a replacement?
I don't mean that in terms of success, just that this year will, among other things, be remembered for a string of injuries providing new and unique challenges to the Hawks skaters and coaches.
Given how healthy the Hawks were last year, it's little surprise the law of averages would lead to a rash of injuries this season. We all know that few things in the world are more powerful than the concept of Even Steven. And I don't think we appreciated it enough last year, but the overall team health was unworldly. Besides Sopel (whose injury was a godsend), the only other players to miss significant time were Sharp, Burish, Wisniewski, and Khabi. Sharp still managed 61 games and Burish 66, while Khabi racked up 42 appearances in net. Between Chicago and Anaheim, Wisniewski played 48 games.
I wouldn't have guessed it possible to get through an entire season where the "big" injuries to all the 20+ players who filled out your top 4 lines, top 6 defenders, and two goalies cost you one guy for 35 games, one for 20, another for 15, and maybe 5-10 starts in goal.
But it's all evening out this year. Hossa still hasn't played a minute in a Hawks uni (lookin at around 20+ games missed before he does). Burish will be out almost the entire regular season (playing 10+ games this year will be a success). Eager (out 13 games) and Toews (6 games) have already missed more time than they did last season. So when Bolland was shelved for 3-4 months due to back issues that have been around for a while, was anyone shocked?
My first reaction was actually happiness. I didn't like the initial "day-to-day" prognosis, as it seemed pretty clear Bolland would be out for a while. So I was glad that the powers that be on Madison decided to just go ahead and order the necessary surgery for Bolland. This will get him back in time to be at full speed come the post-season, while also allowing the team to begin making plans for his absence.
That led to my second reaction - what now? Toews' recent return and Hossa's impending one become all the more important, as the Hawks were running out of legit Top 6 forwards and out of NHL-caliber skaters. Kane, Versteeg, and Sharp are proven front-liners, but a contending team has the likes of Ladd and Buff as plus checking line types or complimentary scoring line guys, not the #4 and #5 scoring/playmaking options. But w/o Toews, Bolland, and Hossa, that was the role those guys were forced into.
And the 4th line, such an asset for the Hawks last year, was being filled out with the likes of Frasier, Hendry, and Ebbett. Could all of those guys contribute at the NHL level? Maybe. But for Hendry, it wouldn't be as a forward, for Frasier, it wouldn't be as the top guy on a line, and for Ebbett, it wouldn't be as a winger. Yet, again, those were the roles those guys were being asked to fill.
So let's be happy that Toews is back already (notching a goal in his first game and a nasty shoot-out tally in his second) and that Hossa isn't too far behind (he'll begin contact practices and could re-join the team on the Circus Trip). With those two (and Eager) all back and both Bolland and Burish out, what exactly can we expect to see out of the Hawks lines? It's always impossible to tell the actual set-up JQ will roll out each night, but let's start up the middle and try to figure out a vague overview from there.
Toews will center the 1st line and Madden will take the checking line. From there, it starts to get more uncertain.
Early reports had Versteeg moving over to center (as he did immediately following Bolland's injury), but then last night Ebbett moved up to center the 2nd line, allowing Versteeg to remain on a wing. Based on Ebbett's solid numbers as the #2 center for the Ducks last year (8 G, 24 A in only 48 games as a rookie), it seems that he could be a capable centerman when surrounded by the right guys.
However, JQ seems to like the Versteeg and Kane combo, which when centered with Ebbett, creates a very, very small line. Versteeg and Kane are listed at the same height and weight, making all 5-10, 180 of Ebbett the "size" on the line. That's a little bit scary.
Plus, when Hossa returns, someone has to become the healthy scratch. The heavy odds are Frasier or Ebbett, with the superior player getting the nod as the 4th line centerman. Now it is possible that Ebbett remains on the 2nd line, Frasier is the scratch, and Kopecky centers the 4th line. And I'm glad to see that JQ is giving Ebbett a chance to show himself capable in that alignment.
But, relating back to my early post about the Hawks' lack of a fighter, I don't see Frasier getting scratched. I think he's seen the writing on the wall and understands that if everyone's healthy for the playoffs, he'd again be the odd man out (possibly not even being on the active roster). So in the meantime, he's doing what he can to up his value - namely, filling the fighter role. At 6-1, 190, Frasier won't ever be the heavyweight Eager was, but he does seem to have the chops to at least fill the scrapper role Burish did, which should be enough for the Hawks.
Hence, once Hossa returns, I see the Hawks going with Versteeg centering the 2nd line and Frasier centering the 4th, while Ebbett serves as the healthy scratch. Because Ebbett can play center on a scoring line, the Hawks will have some nice flexibility to deal with the occasional injuries that surface throughout the year.
In looking at the center alignment, I would have guessed I'd be firmly against trying a winger out of position, as the Hawks did with both Versteeg and Sharp for significant stretches last year. Both were capable enough, but neither did nearly as well up the middle as they do on a wing. But the reality is that no one else quite fits. As I mentioned, Ebbett is the victim of the numbers game (and a bit underwhelming so far), Madden is firmly entrenched on the checking line (he's been damn good at a crucial spot - no reason to change that) and neither Kopecky nor Frasier really have the skills to center a scoring line.
So, it's up to Versteeg to again adjust to a new role, new linemates, and new expectations, something he's already done many a time in his year plus career with the Hawks. But I have faith he's up to it, especially if JQ puts the right guys around him. That means players with the hockey sense and physical skills necessary to profit from the often amazing playmaking Versteeg provides (although I've also noticed that Versteeg often tries to do too much, and gets himself into trouble - for him to truly elevate to star status, he's going to have to cut down on those overly aggressive errors).
One name I wouldn't have guessed as a good fit for The Steeg - Kane. It's always a fun idea to imagine two great playmakers on the same line, but that generally means you've left the other lines too weak and not provided those playmakers with the compliments they need.
However, in seeing the way Kane and Versteeg have clicked, I'm kinda hoping JQ keeps these two together. Aside Toews (and probably, we'll soon find out, Hossa), no one on the Hawks has the feel for the ice and ability to move with or without the puck that these two have. That allows them to play a nasty two-man game that creates a ton of pretty scoring chances.
I also don't think the Hawks balance would be effected by skating those two together on a single line. A top line featuring Toews and Hossa certainly wouldn't be lacking much of anything, as those guys bring playmaking, goal-scoring, size, and speed. And a third line featuring Madden winged by some combination of Sharp, Brouwer, Kopecky, Ladd, and/or Buff would be capable of both checking the top line and creating some offense itself.
So where's that leave things? I'm seeing Toews and Hossa up top, with Sharp on the wing. The other options here are Ladd, Brouwer, or Buff, but those guys all provide size, which isn't needed alongside Toews (6-1, 195) and Hossa (6-1, 210). Sharp's uncanny ability to snipe goals would play great alongside all the attention Toews and Hossa will command.
Although both Sharp and Hossa are big goal-scorers, so it's possible JQ puts a pure grinder like Brouwer up there to do the dirty work instead. While I'm still not sold on Brouwer, he has definitely been playing better than last year and might finally be getting his role. He's one of the tops in the NHL in checks and seems to understand that energy and all-out physicallity are his two main responsibilities. And when you throw in that the guy did score 41 goals in only 66 AHL games in 06-07, Brouwer might just develop the offensive touch to profit from skating with Toews and Hossa (something he failed at miserably last year).
Or Ladd could get the nod, as a guy capable of scoring when the opportunity presents itself, playing strong defense, and bringing a bit of size and grind alongside two stars. Ladd has really developed into a well-rounded compliment and probably could fit well on any Hawk line. That's a nice bit of flexibility, especially as JQ deals with the loss of his #2 center and plays the line merry-go-round game he loves so much.
On the Versteeg and Kane line, as mentioned above, size would seem to be the primary need out of their other winger. Obviously those two bring all the scoring and play-making you need, and in Versteeg even have some solid defense and grind. If JQ can live with a smallish line and doesn't use him with Toews and Hossa, Sharp could be a beautiful fit with Versteeg and Kane. Again, the value Versteeg and Kane both bring is setting up plays every time they touch the puck. And no one on the team (except maybe Hossa) is better suited to capitalize on great play-making than Sharp. He's made a hell of a career banging home the opportunities others create.
However, if JQ does want to ensure a bit of size and balance on his lines, anyone in the Ladd-Brouwer-Buff group can capably provide some beef and grit alongside Versteeg and Kane. Buff is frustrating for all the chances his stone hands and iffy skating blow, but he also is an absolute horse and has shown an ability to score in bunches. And his big body camped out in front of the net would draw defenders, creating space for Kane and Versteeg to work in. My one fear - skating Buff and Kane together puts the team's two most likely skaters to take a shift off on the same line, which could mean a lot of chances the other way.
However the Scoring lines shake out, we've got a third line featuring Madden alongside two wingers out of the Sharp-Buff-Brouwer-Ladd group. No matter who that is, you're gonna have size, the ability to grind, and most important, the ability to play some defense against the other team's top line every night. A 30+ goal scorer like Sharp wouldn't seem like the right fit on a checking line, but he's long been a good defensive winger and Madden's speed and tenacity do create a lot of chances Sharp could capitalize on. And as the Hawks found last year, getting consistent scoring from three lines makes you hard to beat.
Finally, the fourth line would feature Frasier in the middle, winged by Kopecky and Eager. It's really encouraging to lay that out, as it shows that the Hawks again will be skating one of the more talented energy lines you'll find. Kopecky is solid defensively and can move well, Eager is a high motor behemoth who skates surprisingly well and can score, and Frasier won't hurt you as a guy looking to earn his stripes by defending his teammates. Sounds like a nice 4th line mix to me.
Having said all that, losing everything Bolland brings is definitely a major blow to the Hawks - don't believe anything else. My point with the above is just to lay out that the Hawks still have enough capable players to remain a strong top-to-bottom team until Bolland comes back. And when he does return, the extra ice time that Brouwer, Buff, Ladd, Kopecky, and even Frasier and Ebbett get in the meantime will only strengthen the Hawks' depth for a playoff run.
Final point, related to our blueline (which I believe is set at the Top 4 - Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and the Hammer are all legit top flight defenders). I don't know if Hendry is any good, but I do know that Sopel is terrible and only going to get worse as he continues to age and get slower. While he hasn't been as horrible as last season, Sopel is definitely slow and completely mismatched with Barker, himself not terribly fleet of foot defensively and prone to mistakes.
The Hawks need a defender next to Barker who can move enough to cover Cam's occasional lapses and doesn't make many himself. They don't need this guy to have any offensive skills - Barker has more than enough for both of them, especially given that this is our third D pairing. This blueliner just has to hold down the fort and clean up Barker's messes. Sopel makes too many mistakes of his own and certainly has no make-up speed or innate defensive ability to help out enough with Barker.
So I just don't get why the Hawks can't see that Sopel should be your regular healthy scratch on the blueline, while the Hawks go about seeing if Hendry or someone else down at Rockford (or off waivers) can be a capable 6th defenseman. And there's no time like the present, because if they can't find a viable option (a very likely possibility), then the Hawks need to be ready to make a move before the trade deadline - no easy task given their salary cap issues.
Especially because this off-season the Hawks will need to farm out Sopel (thus eliminating his salary from their cap), why waste any more time before you start looking for a replacement?
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