Friday, April 17, 2009

Game 1 Thoughts

First and foremost - holy balls was that amazing! A late goal to tie it and then an OT score 12-seconds in? The crowd couldn't have been more insane after those goals. Just unreal. It's what I've been dreamin of since the Hawks first showed signs of something legit last year.

Second - the Flames were clearly the veteran team lead by an accomplished coach early, manhandling an inexperienced team out of its element. Maybe it was the superior talent (the Flames blue line is SO thin that Anders Erickson skated almost 23 minutes last night - his first 23 minutes of NHL time all year!) or maybe it was finding it in their guts when nothing else was working, but combined with the great play of Khabi, the Hawks somehow stayed in it early despite being badly outplayed.

However, after the first goal against, the Hawks settled a bit and really stepped it up late in the first when Toews went off with a 4-minute high sticking. I said it'd be feast or famine at that point, with a goal burying the Hawks but a kill energizing them. While the crowd was too slow in returning to their seats after the intermission to provide a boost when the final 30 seconds ticked off on the penalty to start the second, the Hawks themselves clearly stepped it up.

After being out-shot 10-5 in the first, the Hawks were near even at 11-10 during the second. Cam Barker stepped up and followed his own rebound with a goal that finally brought the crowd back to a full roar. Though to it's credit, the crowd never went away, it just didn't have any excuse to unleash it's full power. But it never got quiet or seemed out of it, just waiting for the right moment to come back.

Entering the third, the game was either teams to take. The Hawks had turned the tide a little, but the Flames still were making plays, getting chances, and frustrating the Chicago skaters. That was all evident when 4 minutes into the third, Barker screwed up a pinch and Walker couldn't cover his mistake, allowing Cammalleri to convert a beauty pass from Langkow.

However, at that point the Flames quit being the experienced team lead by a great coach. They made a rookie mistake, both on ice and behind the bench. With 16 minutes left and up against a potent offensive squad whom they'd kept in check for the majority of the game, there was no reason to change their approach.

Yet that is exactly what the Flames did. They got super conservative, gave the Hawks room to manuever, and didn't push hard to capitalize on how overly aggressive the Hawks (especially their blueliners) were being. The Hawks ended up bringing full pressure, to the extent of a 12-4 third period SOG advantage, which was far greater at the 5:33 mark, when Havlat followed his own rebound with the tying goal.

Only then did the Flames wake back up and turn the pressure on. However, by then the Hawks were tied, the crowd was electric, and the players had some confidence. The Flames ended up with a number of prime chances, fanning on near open net shots and stumbling around with others. After Havlat's tying goal, the Hawks almost seemed lucky to reach OT (really - at one point with only a few minutes left, a Flame blatantly missed an easy pass or rebound that would have given him a nearly impossible to miss chance on net).

We'll never know, but I'm not convinced if the Hawks didn't score 12 seconds into OT that they would have been able to win that game. Sure, they could have caught a similar break at some other point, or simply finally found their groove or wore the Flames down (especially the defenders, of whom only three - Phaneuf, Leopold, and Aucoin - are used to playing signficant NHL minutes). But the way the Flames outplayed the Hawks early and then again when the game was tied late in the third, I fear that the Flames would have finally capitalized on one of those great chances in OT and sent everyone home in a bad mood.

As it stood, the Hawks and us fans are walking on air right now. I said all game that stealing this one would be huge - somehow overcoming the early jitters and the good play of the Flames to walk away with a W would be a major boon for us while a key defeat for Calgary. Now the Hawks can feel a bit of confidence, regroup with their first taste of the playoffs behind them, and know that they can and should beat these guys.


Moving forward, a few key thoughts. First, the Flames advantage should only decrease as the Hawks get more experience and confidence and the Flames lack of depth begins to take it's toll. But the Hawks can't afford to let up, as if the Flames win Game 2, they don't have to feel bad about blowin Game 1, walking out of Chicago with the game in hand they needed. If the Hawks take Game 2, then the Flames literally have no room for error, facing a young team with sky-high confidence who isn't afraid of the Saddledome. If the Hawks lose Game 2, they have to really come to play in Game 3. Even if they lose that too, a strong showing will convince them that a win there is possible, setting them up to take Game 4 before heading back to the warm embrace of the Hawks faithful for two of the final three.

I'd like to see JQ quit trying to outsmart himself. The fourth line has done its job all year - why the hell would you switch it up in the first game of the playoffs? Just put Frasier out there and sit Brouwer down. And if Sharp isn't 100% (and given his lack of PT lately, even if he is physically, his hockey skills aren't fully back yet), you've got to break up the Toews-Havlat-Kane line. Put Havlat back with Bolland and Ladd (the line that, in perfect harmony with all parts contributing exactly as you'd hope, got that OT winner). Keep Toews and Kane together and try to figure out whether Versteeg (giving you another playmaker - a Havlat light), Buff (giving you some size and a workman to dig in the corners), or Sharp (giving you a shooter to capitalize on the playmaking) works best with them (all have skated with them at various points, so they have some familiarity). Then just put the other two down on the checking line with Pahlsson, giving you a solid unit there as well.

It's not just for strategy that I'd go back, but the fact that the Hawks lines look uncomfortable out there together. They already are uncomfortable and tight because it's the playoffs - try to combat that by keeping them with familiar mates rather than exacerbate that by putting them on unknown lines. Also, by balancing the scoring onto a few different lines, you'll be better able to capitalize on the woefully thin Flames blueline. With Havlat, Toews, and Kane on one line, the Flames can put their best checking unit and best defensive pairing out there every time (especially in Calgary, when the Flames have last shift) and hide their weaker blueliners against the less potent other lines of the Hawks.

But if Toews, Kane, Havlat, Sharpe, Bolland, Ladd, and Versteeg are coming at you on three different well-designed lines, the Flames defenders will ultimately be exposed. That'll allow the Hawks to score and get the Flames out of their comfort zone offensively as well. With even solid execution, the Hawks could take this series in 5 or 6.


Some random notes to finish up:

-I found it interesting to see Aaron Johnson skating before the game. Is this a playoff thing, or have I never noticed that healthy scratches skate before the regular season games too? Also, what's the time out rule in OT? It was over so quickly I didn't notice if each team got to start with a fresh TO every extra period.

-As much as I loved Belfour when he was on the Hawks, he was the opposite of steady. He was brilliant or retarded, so you were worried going into every game, even going into every period or play. You just never were confident that he was gonna be the rock every fan wishes they have in net.

So it was pretty damn sweet to look in our net just before the drop and see Khabi. With the way he's been playing all year and how hot he's been down the stretch, my confidence in our goal keeping was unshakeable. And rightfully so - the guy was steady and spectacular both, doing everything you'd want. And I have every confidence it'll continue, as Khabi is just that kind of player.

It makes me wonder about next year - I've professed a contentment with Huet, but I feel like it's gonna be a real step back in the playoffs. Huet is solid, but unless he's hot, he's just not the rock that Khabi is. I wonder if there's any possibility we'll move Huet to a goalie-starved team and re-up with Khabi. They're about the same age, so it's not like we're trading youth. Gonna be curious to see how that goes. Especially because Khabi is a playoff guy - he's got to know the Hawks give him one of the best shots in the league at going deep these next few years.

-I really wish the Hawks had locked up Havlat already because with each passing game like last night, his price just skyrockets. He seems to have professed a genuine desire to stay in Chicago, but he'd be about the millionth local athlete to seem that way and end up elsewhere all the same. Hopefully they do lock him up, because as much as I'd like to pretend we can just use that money elsewhere, the reality is that talents of Havlat's sort are impossible to find.

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