Friday, May 1, 2009

Canucks Game 1 Thoughts

Well, obviously you'd like to see the Hawks cap off that stellar comeback with a W, especially after also losing the last time they performed that feat. But all in all, I'm not too displeased with what happened.

The Hawks had room for error in these first two games - all they have to do is take one in Vancouver and they've accomplished their goal. Now that room is gone. That's all that happened last night.

At least I hope. The one fear is that the Canucks were rusty and that was the game to steal. Now they've got their legs back under them, will assert themselves in Game 2, and take a commanding lead in the series, Luongo will then steal one in Chicago, and we'll be looking back at a lossed opportunity that lead to disaster.

But while I do believe that's a distinct possibility, it's also possible that what you saw last night is what these two teams are. And in my mind, that means this series is there for the Hawks to win or lose, exactly like the last series was. It's not about the Canucks - the Hawks will dictate their own success or failure.


To that end, I do not think the Canucks won that game. Luongo was solid and they capitalized on their chances, but that wasn't what carried them to victory. Ultimately, it was that the Hawks made too many mistakes - the Hawks lost this game. Keith took a horrendous penalty at a terrible time, leading to the first goal. Campbell and HJ weren't on the same page for a moment, giving them their second goal. Keith didn't pick up his man on the third goal (seen too much of that - don't camp out in front of the net if someone is coming free right behind you). And it kills me to have to say it, but Versteeg made a terrible decision and a terrible pass to set up the winning goal.

Obviously the Canucks did a lot to help force these mistakes, but at the end of the day, I think this game came down to the Hawks making one too many mistakes to overcome.

But I'm feeling good, because if that same Canucks team comes out for Game 2, they are gonna lose. The Hawks aren't gonna take all those stupid penalties, they aren't gonna make all those defensive mistakes, and they aren't going to have to reign in their offense for half the game because they're short-handed.

My intitial impression - unless Luongo steps it up (very possible), the Hawks continue to make uncharacteristic mistakes (not likely), or the Canucks take their game up a few notches (possible), I think the Hawks take this series.

I felt the Hawks out-physicalled the Canucks, I felt they out-skated them, I felt they had much more offensive pressure, and I felt they played far superior defense. Even the goaltending was even - in fact, given how often the Hawks were killing penalties, you could say Khabi out-played Luongo.


I think the Flames series got the Hawks into the right mindset, physically. Because they had to learn quickly to take every opportunity available to hit the Flames - lest they be hit themselves - the Hawks have become very proficient at it. Last night, I felt the lessons they learned from the Flames series allowed the Hawks to out-hit the Canucks significantly. But it wasn't just the abuse they laid - the Hawks also were out-working the Canucks for pucks. Vancouver had no answer for Buff and Eager - when those guys went along the boards with the puck, the Canucks could not get them off of it. Quenneville seemed to notice also, giving those two a lot of ice time down the stretch.

It's possible the Canucks will adjust to the more physical play, just as the Hawks did last series, but I'm not sure they have a very physical team. The Hawks responded to the Flames because they had a latent aggression they were able to tap into. Not just the obvious ones like Eager, Buff, and Burish, but Toews, Versteeg, Sharp, Ladd, and the entire blueline not named Campbell all seemed to relish the chance to ramp up their physical play.

That's carried over into this series, and it's given the Hawks a decided advantage over the Canucks. If the Canucks can't match that, they're gonna have a hard time hanging with the Hawks. Because the Hawks obviously aren't just a bruising team - they also are fast and skilled. In fact, I thought the Hawks also looked faster and more sharp than the Canucks.

Not by much, but by just enough. The Canucks are quick and skilled too - no question they'll make you pay for your mistakes. But from what I saw, if the Hawks play an aggressive game but also avoid lots of big mistakes, I don't think the Canucks have the firepower to win with their offense.

The Hawks showed it last night - time and again the Canucks were on the power play, which not only gave them a boatload of chances, but also meant they were facing a very over-worked group of penalty killers. Yet the Hawks allowed only one goal in 14 penality minutes. Don't forget - those 14 penalty minutes came in the first 40 minutes of the game. All 14. And yet the Hawks killed all but one chance.

Even when the Canucks did score, it seemed it was more because of a Hawks' mistake than a good play by the Canucks. Only the first goal was fully earned - and that one has an asterik because it was a direct result of Keith's dumb penalty. But the others, while of course demanding good play by the Canucks, seemed to result more from the Hawks making mistakes. Maybe the fairest way to put it - I'd say the Canucks' play was responsible for half their scoring last night, the Hawks mistakes responsible for the other half.

So if the Canucks can't create their own scoring when the Hawks are playing almost half of the first two periods down a man, can they really have faith they're gonna score consistently the rest of the way? Once the Hawks aren't locked in the penalty box and making glaring mistakes left and right?


But my real faith probably comes down to the final two observations I had from last night. The first - the Canucks cannot stop the Hawks when they bring their pressure. Despite locking down defensively to protect their three goal lead, the Canucks could not keep the Hawks off the board. As soon as the Hawks were able to avoid the penalty box for an extended period and settle into an aggressive offensive approach, the goals just poured in.

The fact is that Hawks offense is just locked in. Only once all playoffs have they failed to register 3 goals - and that was during a game where they shot an amazing 38 times. They're getting offensive chances from all four lines and from every single skater. And last night, they looked good. It was no surprise that they got back into it - the Canucks weren't able to take them out of their game. The Hawks were making good passes, were keeping the puck in the Canucks zone, and were putting the puck on net in productive ways.

The results speak for themselves - 3 goals against a locked down defense and one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And they were earned - good offensive plays that led to effective shots and rebounds that the Hawks were able to capitalize on (big props to Kane here - he goes in and out of games, but his skill with the puck is undeniable, as most guys won't bury either of those shots).

Let's not forget also - the Hawks spent 14 of the final 34 minutes of the 1st and 2nd periods down a man. So all of that offensive production was grouped around the one time all game that the Hawks were finally able to let loose. I've harped on this a lot, but JQ seems to finally be of the same mindset - let the Hawks skaters take the game to the other team and live with the consequences of plays coming back your way. Because those rare chances for the Canucks will be dwarfed by the number of great chances we have.

I'm a bit scared JQ will see all those mistakes and try to tighten up his D a bit, be a bit more conservative so we don't see a repeat of Game 1. But that'd be a major mistake for two reasons. First, for the millionth time - the Hawks offense is so potent that if you let them go strong, with full support from the blueliners, the Canucks cannot stop them. Even if the Hawks give up a goal or even two because of their over-aggressiveness, they'll score three or four themselves.

Second, the Canucks offense is skilled enough that if you give them chances, they'll score. They showed that last night - while they aren't uber-dangerous like the Hawks, they will make you pay if you give them the opportunity. I'd much rather give them one or two opportunities on the counter-attack then sitting back passively and allowing them to work the puck into our end. They've got playmakers and guys who can bury the puck if you let them sit in our end. But if you keep them back in their end, they showed in the third that they will get taken out of their game.

However, I've got faith JQ will do the right thing and not let himself be scared off by how they got burned at the end of the game. That's because I think JQ respects, rightfully so, that the Hawks need to bring the full arsenal if they are going to consistently score on Luongo. It was clear in the third, after the Hawks tied it, that JQ didn't call off the dogs. The blueliners were still pinching and the offense was still pushing for goals as if their lives depended on it. Unfortunately Steeger made a big mistake and the Canucks capitalized.

But the end results don't always prove that a decision was right or wrong. JQ's gotta have faith that he was right bringing the pressure, and that it was the mistake of getting yourself into a tie situation late and the random bad luck of a poor decision at the wrong time that cost you, not a bad strategic plan.

My faith in JQ doing the right thing is based on Luongo, who serves as the final observation point that has given me confidence in the Hawks this series. When the Hawks went down 3-0, I still had faith they could get back in it, but I never felt like they were gonna win it. It just didn't seem to be there night. Even when they tied it, I just felt what happened was gonna happen - a fluke goal that erases their comeback.

But the one thing I really cared about was seeing the Hawks score on Luongo, and to do so a lot. So when they tied it up, even though I still felt like they'd lose (and I'm uber-optimist when it comes to my sports teams), I was happy about where they were at. Before the 3-goal barrage, I was scared that not only would we lose based on some bad plays, but that we'd struggle offensively and inflate the legend that is Luongo.

Look, Luongo is good, but he's won only ONE playoff series ever. He didn't even make it to the post-season in two of the last four years. So how good can he really be? Not to say he's not amazing and not one of the best in the game - he absolutely is. I'm just saying he's not unbeatable. All last year and the first half of this season, teams found a way to beat him enough to keep the Canucks in the bottom half of teams in the league.

But had we failed to score last night, or only slipped one garbage goal in, Luongo would have started to loom very large in that net. The pressure would have ramped up and every save would have made him look that much bigger between the pipes. It snowballs from there - it's why you see goalies stand on their heads all the time. Because once a goalie starts to look unbeatable, a vicious cycle starts where the offense gets off their game as they force things, puts bad shots on net, and then each save only furthers the frustration.

Instead, the Hawks went the opposite way - three goals in 15 minutes, their first such stretch without a penalty in the whole series. And the goals were well played, but they weren't amazing. Luongo looked very beatable on all three.

On the flipside, I thought Khabi was his equal. He wasn't super-amazing, but he was damn good and kept us in the game. If Khabi can play roughly to the same level as Luongo - and why not, Khabi is the one with the ring - then this series is decidedly in the Hawks favor.


I've got faith in the Hawks - I really think they can tighten up their play and take Game 2. From there, I like the Hawks back home. And not just because of the crowd (which will be amazing either way, but especially if we take Game 2) and the home cooking. But because of last change. The way it works in hockey, after every puck stoppage, the road team coach must put his players on the ice, then he can't change them. The home team coach sees who they put out, and then selects his own line and pairing.

This doesn't seem like much, but in playoff hockey it's huge. It's not always clear, but the coaches are constantly working to get the right guys out there against the opposing team's lines. In fact, that's been my other criticism of JQ in the playoffs - he's been FAR too worried about line match-ups on the road. This has lead to quick shifts that have taken the Hawks totally out of their game as JQ tries to ensure he's got the exact right guys out there all the time.

Look, have faith in your lines. Yes Pahlsson is a nasty shut-down center and has down well with Buff and Versteeg. But the first line is capable against any line, half because of the scoring threat they bring and half because Toews is a solid defender and Sharp a very good one. Similarly, the second line is strong defensively, with Ladd, Bolland, and Havlat all smart defenders. The 4th line is even capable, with one of your main penalty killers (Burish) and another defensive-minded type (Brouwer) out there.

So quit changing so much on the fly and allow your lines to skate full shifts and get into the flow of action. In all three games in Calgary and again last night in Vancouver the Hawks spent a lot less time in the opponents zone and had a lot fewer long, productive shifts. JQ needs to let those guys skate, let them have the opportunity to carry the puck in and establish the offense. But if he's constantly calling for changes to maximize match-ups, he's not letting them do that. Then you get back into that non-aggressive defensive hockey that limits our advantages.


Wow, the point of that rant (which has been boiling up since game 3 of last series) was actually meant to be positive - that if we can steal Game 2, we'll be back home for Games 3 and 4, where JQ doesn't have to worry about matching lines on the fly. And that advantage, coupled with our superior talent and play, can win us both games. Sure, the wild card of Luongo or just random poor play is still there, but I've got faith we'll tighten it up from here on out, and I believe Khabi is nearly as capable of owning this series as Luongo is.

Now the Hawks just have to go out and prove it.

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