Hawks v Flames - 1st Round Series Preview (Part 1)

Here it is, everything I've been able to put together about the Flames, in hopes that it'll give us all a better idea of our opponent as we watch all of these games. Today - Part 1. Part 2 later today/tomorrow.

Of note - the Flames are the last team that Hawks beat in a playoff series, back in 1996.

Quick Hawks-Flames history - in the late 80s, the Hawks had a good team, but couldn't break through. Twice they made it to the conference finals, once losing to the Oilers dynasty, the other time losing to the Flames on their way to their only Cup. I bring that up mainly to stroll down memory lane with that Cup winning roster - Doug Gilmour, Joe Nieuwendyk, Al MacInnis, Gary Suter, Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury, Stu Grimson, and Mike Vernon. It's like a who's who of NHL 94.

Following their loss to the Hawks in 96, the Flames posted seven straight non-playoff years. Then in 03-04, they got good (94 points) and made an impressive run to the finals. First they won a 7-game series, then beat the Wings, took the Conference by beating the Sharks in 6, before finally losing to the Lightning in 7. That team had only three things going for it - an absurdly awesome Kiprusoff in net (1.69 GAA in the regular season!) who got even hotter in the playoffs, a 40-goal scorer in Iginla (when 40 goals often lead the league), and teamwide great defense. No one else had 50 points or 20 goals. It was all defense, goal-tending, and Iginla.

After that run came the lockout, then a 103 point season which ended in a 7-game first round playoff loss to the Ducks. They've fallen a bit the past two seasons, with 96 and 94 points, again losing in the first round. Along the way, their offense has raised itself to the top half of the league, but their amazing defense has steadily fallen to mediocrity.

That trend has continued this year. The Flames 3.1 goals per game is good for 9th best in the NHL, 4th best in the West (behind the Wings, Sharks, and our Hawks' 3.2 average). And they've earned their goals, as the Flames Power Play unit has been one of the worst - converting only 17% of their chances for the 10th worst unit in the game. That means at even strength, the Flames are as dangerous as they come (3rd best in the NHL, the Hawks are 6th, thanks partly to being one of the best 4x4 teams out there).

But defensively, the Flames have again gotten worse. Their 3.0 goals against tally is 8th worst in the NHL and the absolute worst among all the post-season squads. Some of that is on the PK unit, which at a meager 83.4% stop rate, is the 4th least effective in the entire league. But a lot more of that is at even strength, where the Flames have the league's 7th highest GAA.

Can the Flames hope to just outscore opponents, as they've done all year? In the playoffs, that generally doesn't happen, especially not against a high-flying team like the Hawks. Instead, the Flames are going to have to figure out the game in their own end to have any chance. In net, across the blueline, and on the lines - all six guys on the ice have to step up their defensive game in a big way to have any shot.

Another bit of perilous news for the Flames, who as the 5th seed do not control home ice advantage - they are a very poor road team. For a team who's 46 total Ws rank 5th in the league, being in the middle of the pack with a mere 19 road victories is a tough pill to swallow. Obviously this means that the Flames are a real tough home team - their 27 home wins is 5th best - but the Hawks won both games in Calgary this season (3-2 in OT and 5-2), so the Flames can't expect the Hawks to roll over when they come to the Saddledome.


Don't be fooled, though - the Flames bring three key elements to the table that the Hawks need to answer. First is Mike Keenan, one of the more successful hockey coaches in the modern day. In his first 11 seasons (4 with Philly, 4 with the Hawks, 1 with the Rangers, 2 with the Blues), he made the post-season every time, went to the Cup Finals four times with three teams, and finally lifted the chalice in 1994, with the Rangers.

Of course, since then Keenan has been on a downward spiral, only finding success again last year with the Flames. In 1997 he was fired by the Blues, then got fired midway through a second bad season with the Canucks, then resigned after one bad year with the Bruins, before again resigning, this time after three poor seasons in Florida.

Last year, Keenan took over the Flames, returned them to the playoffs (his first time back since that 11-season run), and lost a heartbreaking 7-round series to the Sharks. This year, it looked like he had the Flames back up a notch, as the clear winners of their division and a near-contender. But a string of late-season injuries left his club barely able to field a full collection of skaters, and the Flames' division lead finally was lost to the Canucks in the final week of the season.

Still, you can't ignore what Keenan has done in the past - he's found a way to make playoff teams into playoff successes. That's his strength as a coach. The team he has now is full of playoff experience and built a bit more in the way Keenan wants them. It would not surprise the astute hockey fan to see the Flames win this series, or even to do so handily, simply because of what Keenan can do with a solid team.


The second element the Flames bring is experience - with three straight trips to the postseason, even the young guys have gotten a solid taste. On top of that, eight of their top skaters have been in the league for more than 8 seasons. And their goaltender, Kipprusoff, has not only played a ton of playoff hockey, but he showed in 2004 that he can carry a subpar squad to the Cup Finals.

When you couple the Flames wealth of experience with the Hawks near total lack of it, you've got a mighty big wild card in the Flames' favor. Stanley Cup hockey is different than during the regular season and knowing how best to play it is a significant advantage. There has to be a healthy fear that the Flames will be able to take the Hawks out of their game, frustrating the offense and creating chances at the expense of the defense. This is a story that's played itself out many times in hockey's past.

However, the Hawks aren't fully lacking in this area. They do have a few guys who've played a lot of Cup hockey, most notably their shut-down center in Pahlsson and Khabi. Those are two key spots, especially goalie, and that can go a long way to stabilizing the rest of the green skaters. Ladd, Campbell, and Havlat also have significant post-season resumes that should help them anchor the team a bit. But that leaves a lot of key players getting into their first post-season situation, or at least their first as a significant contributor.

One thing that really could help balance the experience factor a bit - the Flames have a lot of injured players. Primeau, Giordano, and Warrener all are steady grinder type vets who'd have been very valuable this time of year for the Flames, but are out for the year. Sarich and Regehr are very capable blueliners with signicant resumes, both doubtful for Game 1. Where those guys should have been playing will be guys without experience, evening things a bit for the Hawks.


The final element the Flames have is their incredible multi-faced offense. More details to come tomorrow, but in brief, they skate a 20-, 21-, 21-, 29-, 35-, and 39-goal scorer. Their other three top line forwards all racked up over 27 assists. The 4th line features an 11-goal scorer and a guy who put in 8 goals in only 27 NHL games. Even the blue line chips in, with a pair of double-digit goal scorers and two others with 17+ assists.

And because they've all been to the playoffs, these offensive weapons know that it takes a whole lot more to continue scoring int he post-season. Again, the Flames can't expect to win a bunch of high scoring affairs on their way to the second round - that's rarely how playoff hockey operates. But if they can shore up their defense a little, the Flames offense can provide a significant cushion for the subpar defensive efforts.