Hawks v Flames - 1st Round Series Preview (Part 2)

So what are the Flames bringing to the table personnel wise? I can't say for sure what their lines will look like, but here's my best guess. And even if the combinations change, this still should give you a good idea of what the Flames are skating with each night.

The Hawks were able to keep the potent combo of #12 Iginla and #13 Cammalleri in check during their four games this year, but that was before the Flames added the big and talented #21 Jokinen to center that line. All four can create and score, and all four have been playing at high levels for a number of years. The big question is Jokinen, who's known to disappear for stretches. After going gangbusters in his first few games with the Flames, he's really quieted. Whether or not he turns it on could be a significant factor in the series.

The second line will be headed by veteran #22 Langkow, a longtime producer, and should feature the infamous #7 Bertuzzi, who while no longer the 40-goal scorer he once was, still is a dangerous power forward. By process of elimination I've also got #25 Moss up on this line, who showed some real scoring skill in his first full season in the NHL.

The third line center is veteran #24 Conroy, an old-timer who packs just enough scoring punch with solid work in the face-off circle and good checking ability to be a real asset. My logic here is that #20 Glencross and #17 Bourque, with similarly strong +/- numbers, must have skated together a good amount throughout the year. If these three are together (or even just two of them), you're looking at a balanced line that plays solid defense and can put pucks in the net when necessary.

Bourque's number are especially of note, as he was unceremoniously dumped by the Hawks in the off-season, a move that looks pretty poor given all the ice time received by the likes of Brouwer and Buff this season. Note too that Bourque did it in only 58 games due to an injury that he only just came back from (possibly not yet at full speed).

Youngster #16 Boyd has done a solid job centering the 4th line all season, so I'm guessing he continues in that role. He'll probably be joined by fellow young grinders #23 Nystrom and #45 Lundmark. Lundmark is an interesting story, as he's bounced between the AHL and NHL for a while, before finally settling in with the Flames down the stretch and tallying 8 goals and 8 assists in only 27 games. Unaccomplished third and fourth liners getting hot in the playoffs is a yearly event in the NHL - could Lundmark be this year's unexpected difference maker?

In general, much like the Hawks, the Flames are looking to get scoring from all four lines and have a number of different ways to hurt you. They've got some size, playmakers, and a bunch of guys with nice scoring touches. But they don't have a lot of speed, which will make it hard for them to keep up with the Hawks. The Flames will have to make up for that with a good approach that disrupts the Hawks offense while allowing them to keep pressure on the Chicago blueliners.


The Flames defense is lead by Norris Trophy contender #3 Phaneuf, a talented two-way defenseman who logs a boatload of minutes. Early reports have him paired with #40 Leopold, acquired at the trade deadline to add depth to a blueline that's been ravaged by injuries. Ex-Hawk pariah #33 Aucoin has resurrected his career with two strong seasons in Calgary after being a total free agent bust here in Chicago.

Ideally for the Flames, Aucoin would be paired with a strong veteran defender like #28 Regehr or #6 Sarich, but injuries to both probably will keep them out, at least for a game or two. Instead, Aucoin could skate with rookie #55 Pardy or with another pair of ex-Hawks pariahs, #8 Erickson and #4 Vandermeer.

Erickson is an especially interesting case, especially for Hawks fans. It was Erickson who was the lynchpin in the wholly misguided decision to trade Chelios to the Red Wings. After missing huge parts of two of his three seasons in Chicago, Erickson has been up and down, mixing solid seasons in the NHL with time in the AHL. After two straight respectable years, including last season with the Flames, Erickson was buried in the AHL all year thanks to the Flames maxed out payroll leaving no space for his modest $1.5M salary number. But with all the injuries to the Flames blue line, it looks like his first taste of NHL action this year will be in the playoffs.

In all, the Flames defense without both Regehr and Sarich is very thin and very iffy. The presence of either would help solidify things a bit, but if neither can return this series, the Flames will have to get some impressive minutes out of a number of subpar blueliners. Again, with the right approach the Flames can reduce their exposure, but it'll be up to the Hawks skaters to capitalize on this weak blueline.


In net, the Flames are wholly reliant upon #34 Kiprusoff, who started a ridiculous 76 of their 82 games. In fact, since carrying his club to the finals in 2004, Kiprusoff has logged at least 74 games in every single season. That work load has taken it's toll, as his GAA has gone from 1.70 in 2004 to 2.07, then 2.46, up to 2.69, and finally to this year's 2.84. His save percentage has likewise plummeted each season, from .933 the year of the cup run, down to .903 this year.

Still, Kipper has found a way to win, with his 45 victories this year a career high. Not once has he failed to win 39 games in a full season. And in the playoffs, Kipper has, for the most part, remained fairly tough, posting a .921 and .929 save percentage in the 06 and 07 post-season.

However, last year was a total disaster, as despite pitching one shut-out, Kipprusoff still had a .908 save percentage and a brutal 3.21 GAA. Those are the kind of numbers the Hawks need to hang on Kipper - he's been over-worked, doesn't get much support from his skaters, and now is fronted by a blueline that is severely undermanned due to injuries.


In all, I couldn't begin to say what's gonna happen in this series. So many things point to the Hawks taking this, possibly even with ease, but I just can't shake the lingering feeling that the NHL playoffs rarely go to form, especially in early round series. While it's obvious to point to the huge experience difference between these two teams, I think it really could make all the difference. I do feel it could help the Flames play better than they should on paper, while keeping the Hawks from playing as well as they have.

And let's not forget - the Flames finished with the same 46 wins the Hawks did. They may be a bit thin cause of the injuries and coming off a rough finish to the regular season, but they're still a talented hockey club who's been there before.

So no predictions involving my Hawks, mainly because I'm superstitious, but also because I couldn't confidently say which Flames and which Hawks teams will show up.