Hawks v Flames - Preliminary Thoughts

So the ESPN "Experts" came out with their picks today. I put experts in quotes because these guys are tools - of the six guys picking eight different series (so 48 total picks), they chose a whopping 4 upsets - and all of them were the #6 Canes beating the #3 Devils (one of the colder teams in the NHL ending the season).

Really?!? How long have you been following the NHL, guys? The playoffs never go to form, with even #1 seeds losing in the first round with regularity. You're getting paid to analyze, write, and talk about hockey - what we call a dream job - how about putting in a bit of actual effort and insight, having a set, and trying to predict one of the many upsets that will happen in the first?

Not one of you sees the red hot Blues taking down a very a good, but certainly not great Canucks team? The Flyers have no chance against the Penguins, despite their near identical records? Boston or Washington aren't a little bit vulnerable? The Wings and Sharks couldn't be caught looking forward to their "inevitable" Western Conference Finals showdown?

And closest to home - all six of you are convinced the playoff-experience filled Flames, headed by NHL playoff coaching beast Mike Keenan, are going to lose to the barely-not-teenaged Hawks and their mediocre playoff performing coach?

Hey, I wish nothing more than these guys to be right and for the most part, I actually enjoy ESPN's team of hockey analysts, even if none of them answer my emails (Tim Kirkjian and Jason Stark they will never be!). But the fans deserve more - they want to have an inkling of the upsets to watch for and to know why they should shake out that way. It's the "experts" job to elucidate those, not just toe the obvious line of the better regular season teams winning each match-up. Way to earn those paychecks!


As for the Hawks and Flames, I don't think it's as clear cut as I wish it were. Sure, the Hawks have owned the Flames, the Flames are fairly banged up, and the Hawks seem to be hitting their stride at the right time (especially in goal). But the Flames have a great coach and a boatload of playoff experience, while the Hawks do not have either.

Not that JQ is bad, but he really hasn't earned his stripes yet. I think he's reached one conference finals in the 11 years he's gone to the post-season - sorry, that ain't gonna cut it. It's one of the reasons I was opposed to his hiring in the first place - because the Stanley Cup is all that matters, and JQ hasn't show any more ability than Savard to get his team there.

Having said that, JQ has done a fine job with the squad this year and maybe he just needed the right team, which he now has in the Hawks. Not to say they'll go the Cup this year, but maybe they'll take the necessary steps this season to get there in the next year or two.

To me, the necessary steps are getting to the playoffs, winning a post-season series, and competing in the second round. The Hawks have accomplished that first step, now they're ready for the second. And I see three keys to the Hawks making it happen:


1. Khabi not getting outplayed by Kiprusoff. Kipper has been very mediocre while Khabi, outside of a rough stretch after his injury, has been outstanding. So you'd think this one would be a pretty good bet, especially because Khabi just needs to be Kipper's equal, not better. I think the Hawks are a more well-rounded team, so as long as the Flames don't get a significant advantage out of their goal play, the Hawks should have a really good shot at taking the series.

But you never know with goalies - Khabi might let in a soft one early and get out of his comfort zone. Or Kipper might face 40 shots and stop them all in Game 1, riding that confidence to a stellar series. Goalie play is a fickle mistress, and like all women, is wholly unpredictable (haha - just kidding my female readers!).

(no, I'm not)

(haha, again, kidding!)

(no...)


2. Pahlsson doing the job he was brought in for. There's no question the Flames have had success this year because of their offense, averaging over a goal a game thanks to six different 20-goal scorers. The Flames are similar to the Hawks in that they get that scoring from all four lines, but even more than the Hawks, the Flames rely on one line to really carry them. Iginla is one of the best players in hockey, while Cammalleri's 39 goals were third in the entire Western Conference. With the mid-season addition of Olli Jokinen, a consistent 30+ goal scorer, the Flames have a fearsome threesome on their #1 line.

So is Pahlsson and whomever JQ matches with him up to that stiff challenge? It's a question because we're not sure how recovered Pahlsson is from his bout with Mono, how effective he can be on this team, and who JQ will pair with him.

If Sharp is healthy and near 100%, I'd put him and Versteeg together with Pahlsson and would have every confidence they could keep the Jokinen-Iginla-Cammalleri line in check through a combination of good defensive work and an application of pressure in the other end.

I don't think the Hawks can hope to shut this line down (as they did in the regular season), but if they can keep them from going off, I like our chances.


3. Keep the offensive pressure on in the form of high shot counts every game. My biggest fear with the Hawks inexperience is that the veteran-laden Flames squad will be able to take the Hawks scorers out of their game to the point where they're not even getting shots. If the Hawks aren't getting shots, not only will their offense obviously suffer, but then the potent Flames offense will be even more free to take the pressure to the Hawks.

Especially given the letdowns we've seen with the Hawks defense when they aren't going well, it's crucial that they not allow the Flames offense to get up to full speed. Keeping the shots on Kipper will keep the Flames thinking defensively and thus buy the Hawks blueliners and Khabi a bit more room to protect their own end.


Already done most of the preliminary research on the Flames for my big preview post - look for it late Tuesday or early Wednesday.