Thoughts After Game 3

Obviously you want to win them all, but I don't feel too bad after last night's loss. The Hawks came out strong, as they needed to. They got a quick goal on a power play and followed up by creating a number of outstanding chances, foiled only by bad luck and good play by Kipper. They played well all game and looked as hard-hitting, energetic, and sharp as they have all series.

But they just didn't catch the breaks (Havlat's redirect hitting the crossbar), while the Flames caught them all - a 4th line goal, a fluke shot that pinballs its way through Khabi's equipment, a shot he never evens see that follows a magic bullet path to the back of the net. Probably the biggest break the Flames caught last night happened before the game even began - Kane randomly catches the flu and can't go. Hey injuries happen, especially this time of year, but to lose a guy to the flu? That's just bad luck.

The Hawks didn't blow a lead, they didn't fail to get a needed goal, they weren't outworked or outplayed, they didn't come out flat, they didn't lay down. The Hawks played a solid game against a good team who also played well, and they just didn't catch the breaks. So is sport.

As things stood, the Hawks could afford a moral victory. But now that luxury has passed. They need to build on the good things they did in Game 3, tighten up on the bad (small let downs led to a few of those fluky goals, while slightly poor execution kept a few of the Hawks' chances from turning into goals), and win the pivotal Game 4.

And they can definitely do it. Khabi continues to play well, even if Game 3 wasn't his best outing. Sharp reminded me, for the first time in a while, why he is such a good hockey player (both with that beautifully placed shot on the first goal, and with his blazing speed, great puck control, and stellar pass on the second). Toews and Havlat are clear big-game types. Buff and the other grinder types seem to relish the challenge of being more physical. And if it really was just a flu that kept Kane out (you never know with the NHL), then it seems like he'd be back at full go come Game 4.

Defensively, Barker and Campbell (more on him later) have both played well offensively, putting a lot of pressure on the Flames. While Keith remains so solid on the blueline, I've actually been most impressed (relatively) with Seabrook - he's really played effectively on both ends. There's a confidence there that I really appreciate and the Hawks really need. And while Walker and HJ are both clearly inexperienced and a bit short on talent, they are playing hard and seem to be getting better. They won't ever be assets, but if they can keep from being detriments, the Hawks are looking good.

Each game is a world of its own, but I have faith that the Hawks can come out in Game 4 and get it done. They are the better team, they aren't intimidated by the Saddledome, and they've already had their bad luck game. They've got to smell blood in the water, knowing that a win puts them squarely in control. And they've got to respect that they've got no room for error, as a loss erases their two big opening victories.


Changing course, my buddies have been debating the worth of Brian Campbell lately, with the fairly widely accepted conclusion that he's been a bit of a bust. I have to disagree. Not that I'm fully thrilled with his play, just that I think he's not getting a fair shake.

First off, what he does well is rare and crucial to the success of any club. Campbell was brought in to spark the offense with his speed, puck carrying ability, and his work at the point. Like big men in hoops or lefty relievers in baseball, there are never enough quality offensive defensemen to fill all of the league's needs. So right away it has to be respected that on some level, just like NBA bigs and lefty relievers, any solid playmaking blueliner is gonna seem overpaid.

Second, for what he does, Campbell is one of the best. His 45 assists rank third in the entire NHL among defensemen. Third. His mark on the Hawks is clear - they're one of the top scoring teams and one of the top power play units in the game. Just watching the Hawks play, its clear that no one on the club can move the puck forward like Campbell can, that no one can handle the point as well as he can.

Keith is good on the rush, but he's not as in command as Campbell, doesn't move the puck and make the passes like Campbell does. Barker is very solid on the point, but he doesn't handle passes back as well as Campbell does, nor make as many great passes. In fact, a great majority of Barker's power play points come from rifling the puck at the net. That's a solid and necessary skill, but it doesn't replace Campbell's ability to cycle the puck to the highly talented playmakers the Hawks have on their PP units.

Finally, Campbell's defensive impact needs to be respected. He's not a great defensive defenseman, but he's also not bad. Ideally, Campbell would be paired with a strong veteran stay-at-home type so he can feel confident aggressively moving the puck forward to spark the rush. Instead, Campbell's had to deal with the opposite - he's generally got to keep one eye behind him to ensure that he can cover for the mistakes of Barker, Wisniewski, Walker, Johnson, or HJ, all of whom he's had to skate with this year. How much better would both Campbell's offensive and defensive numbers be if he was paired with Seabrook all season?

And the numbers back up Campbell's relatively solid defensive play - for an offensive blueliner, Campbell is at least middle of the road defensively. Of the five defensemen who had 45+ assists, only one had a higher plus/minus than Campbell's +5. Of the thirty blueliners who had 30+ assists, only ten had plus/minus of 7 or more.

The final question is whether all of this makes Campbell worth his huge contract. First, I'd say it's garbage to judge a guy on one season. Players have their ups and downs, so its possible this was a bit of a down year for Campbell and now that he's more comfortable (and has one coach all year and established teammates), he'll be even better next season.

Second, as I mentioned above, to have the necessary offensive blueliners, you're going to have to pay good money. Remember also, the Hawks got Campbell without sacrificing any talent of their own, so again, they had to pay for it as part of the free agency premium. Finally, the Hawks knew it was necessary in their development to win this year and next. They needed to build their players' confidence and gain them post-season experience. And in order to do that, the Hawks needed to improve their blueline significantly. So in two years when it appears Campbell might keep the Hawks from re-signing someone they want, remember that they wouldn't be a Cup contender if they hadn't brought on Campbell in the first place.

Third - it's not yet clear that the Hawks will have to give up anyone they can't replace. I can't say I fully understand how the hockey cap works - it's seems fairly complicated and nuanced. Certainly with all the talent the Hawks have, they've got their work cut out for them fitting everybody in. But I'm not gonna worry about hypotheticals until I've got seen some real indications that the Hawks are losing guys they can't easily replace. Between Sopel, Buff, and their goalies, the Hawks have some cap space to work with moving forward, so it's possible they can keep everyone in the fold.

I'm not saying that I'm 100% convinced Campbell is worth the money they paid. $7M for 8 years is an absurd commitment. I'm just saying that the jury is still very, very out on this one. There are enough factors in his favor and there's plenty more I need to see of Campbell before I can confidently judge this decision. For now, I like a lot of what I've seen, I appreciate a lot of what he brings, but I also am hoping it gets better on a lot of levels next season.