Thoughts Before Game 3

Gotta admit that my confidence is wavering that this series is going 7, but not fully. The only thing that's happened is that the Hawks lost any room for error in tonight's game at the UC. Even had they slipped one in during OT of Game 2, I still would have figured we'd be locked up at two a piece heading back to Detroit. But now we can't afford to lose tonight if we want to have any chance to win this series.

I still believe that's possible. The Hawks showed in Game 2 that they can play the Wings even. Sure the Wings still look like the better team, but remember two things - the Hawks definitely play better at home than on the road, thanks in part to the greatest fans in sport, and with each passing game, the Hawks gain that much more experience, confidence, and comfort.

The problem is that in hockey you can outplay a team and still lose, so it's distinctly possible that the Hawks will come back to the UC, outplay the Wings twice, yet still be looking at an elimination Game 5. But that knife cuts both ways - the Hawks could get outplayed by Detroit, yet still steal a victory thanks to a bit of luck and the energy of the home crowd.

The biggest thing for us to hang our hats on: the never-say-die mentality the Hawks have displayed is about more than just in-game comebacks. I have full faith they'll dig down to that same place and come back in the series.

Remember, the Hawks lost all the momentum in the first round when they went into Calgary up 2-0 and couldn't take either game, looking horrible early in both. Yet they played their best game of the series in Game 5 and cruised through Game 6.

Same thing in Round 2 - the Hawks got beat up pretty good in Game 1 and were down early in Game 2 to a team most predicted would end their season. Yet the Hawks brought an avalanche of goals on one of the best goalies in the game and took a key W. Then, with a chance to take control of the series back home, the Hawks lost Game 3 without putting up much of a fight and were minutes away from their season all but ending in Game 4 before they scored a late goal and won in OT, again cruising straight on through Game 6.

So I'm not in panic mode yet, nor will I be if the Hawks get down in Game 3, be it early or late. They've shown they can come back, and more importantly, they've shown they ride those comebacks for games worth of momentum. I believe the Hawks can win these next two games, and could even follow it up with a victory in Game 5 in Detroit. I even think the Hawks can lose Game 4 and still be in this - they showed in Game 2 they can hang with the Red Wings in Detroit.


What needs to happen? First and foremost, the Hawks defense needs to tighten up in a BIG way. They've played fairly well, especially given the talent they're facing, except for a few glaring mistakes. But the Wings absolutely have destroyed the Hawks on nearly all of those mistakes, and that is the difference in the series.

Really - look back. Half of the Wings goals have come directly from a blueliner making some monster mistake that the Wings immediately put into the back of the Hawks net. Cleary and Franzen with the Wings' first two goals in Game 1. Then Cleary again in Game 2, followed up by the OT winner by Samuelsson. All four of those goals - some of the biggest in the series - were scored 100% because of Hawks defenders falling, losing the puck, missing a pass, etc.

So the obvious takeaway is that the Hawks defenders - all six of them - need to keep their focus, play a tighter game, and ensure whatever mistakes they make can be kept from becoming prime scoring chances. But the less obvious takeaway - the Hawks defenders (with a big assist from the forwards and Khabi) are otherwise doing a very solid job on the Wings.

Review how Detroit's scored their 8 goals - four were the result of bad turnovers, one was an empty netter, and one was on the power play. That leaves just two goals where the Hawks were beat in normal five-on-five play by being out-worked by the Wings. Two goals in two games against the best offense in the league in front of their home crowd. Not too bad.

Sure that can be viewed as some creative accounting. But I think it tells the story of this series. The Wings have outplayed the Hawks for the great majority of it, but unless the Hawks make a mistake, they've been able to keep them at bay. A lot of this has had to do with the amazing play of Khabibulin, who has chosen the biggest stage to play his best hockey ever in a Hawks uniform. But the Hawks also have been doing a solid job of working in their own zone to keep good position and not give the Wings unmolested chances on net.

And they deserve to be commended highly for it. The Wings are just a nasty, nasty good team. I've never seen a squad with better puck control in my life. The Hawks play a good, active, physical defense, and yet the Wings almost never lose control of the puck. They make tape to tape passes, keep control along the boards, and don't lose possession when they're skating through traffic. It's absolutely un-freakin-believable. I've seen a lot of good teams playing great hockey, but the way the Wings control the puck is something I've never before witnessed.

And yet, the Hawks were a fortunate bounce away from leaving Detroit tied at 1 and in control of early party of the series. That tells you something.

What makes it even more impressive is the fact that my best guess at a weakness for the Wings has turned out to be, by far, their biggest strength. Chris Osgood has put behind all of his mental and physical struggles during the regular season and once again found his Stanley Cup winning form.

That's pretty damn crazy. Osgood won a Cup with the Wings in 97-98, and earned it - posting a 2.12 GAA and .918 save percentage while losing only six games in four series. However, in the next three years he couldn't take the Wings past the second round, then was out in the first during stops in New York and St. Louis the following three seasons.

After the Strike he returned to Detroit in a back-up role, first to Legace and then to Hasek. It wasn't until the playoffs last year that he finally was made a full-time #1 goalie again, replacing a worn-down Hasek and backstopping the Wings to the Cup with a remarkable 1.55 GAA and .930 Save %. This year he again has been as strong as ever in the playoffs, with an NHL-best 2.32 GAA and .925 save percentage in the postseason.

I can certainly attest that Osgood has been nasty this year in the playoffs. He looked solid against a tough Anaheim team and has been remarkable against the Hawks. While the Wings have outplayed the Hawks, this series would look a heck of a lot different if Osgood hadn't been standing on his head. The Hawks could easily have two more goals in each game - if not more - had Osgood been merely solid, instead of exceptional.

Kind of a strange ride - to win a Cup with great play as a 25-year old, be fairly average in the postseason for the next decade, and then play your best hockey as a 35- and 36-year old. And I can't stress this enough - Osgood is not merely profiting from good players in front of him. The Hawks have had plenty of amazing chances where Osgood was the only one left to stop them, and he's come through almost every time.


So what's the answer to all of this? How does a team solve a great goalie playing behind a great team? I think the Hawks just need to put their balls to the wall and unleash the hounds of hell. The one time in Game 2 that the Hawks had the Wings completely on their heels was late, when they were down a goal and realized they had to sell out to get it. The blueliners attacked like crazy and the forwards flew en masse to every puck deep or along the boards.

The Wings just couldn't handle it - for the first time all series, they weren't able to get any sustained pressure in the Hawks' end and were giving up a lot of chances in their own. And most importantly, the Hawks had success - they scored the tying goal and had some good shots at the winning one.

Now is the time for JQ to show his mettle. I called him out before and I thought he responded well (obviously not directly). I said the Hawks needed to let loose their offense against both Calgary and Vancouver, and that's what he eventually did. The results speak for themselves.

In this series, JQ hasn't had the Hawks playing back, but he also hasn't had them attacking all out. And while the Hawks have been able to hang with the Wings, it's no mistake that they're down 2-0. The simple fact of that matter is that if the Hawks keep trying to just hang with the Wings, they will lose this series. There is no way they can win 4 of the next 5 games, two of which are in Detroit, by hoping to outplay the Wings at their own game.

When we try to play a disciplined game where we out-execute the Wings, we're playing into their hands. They're more experienced and better both offensively and defensively. With Osgood standing on his head, they're also our equals in the net. So what happened in Games 1 and 2 will just keep happening - we'll hang with them cause we're pretty talented too, but at the end of the day, they'll out execute us and win. Maybe not every game, but certainly at least two of the next five.

So JQ, if you're reading this - it's time to bring the fury. You cannot beat the Wings with simple execution. And we aren't a defensive, grinder team who can hope to trap and make the game ugly - you want to get the Wings out of their game, but it doesn't make sense to totally take yourself out of your own in the meantime.

That's why I believe the Hawks' only option is to turn this into an all-out attacking affair. If you do, the Wings are gonna capitalize on a lot of your mistakes and score a bunch of goals. Know that. Accept it. Move on.

But if you're coming with the thunder, the Hawks will score even more. While we can't keep up with the great puck possession, offensive execution, and all-around great defensive play of the Wings - they cannot keep up with the end-to-end, balls out feast or famine attacking game of the Hawks.

Simply put, every single player on the Hawks is better suited to a track meet than they are an execution style game. Conversely, the Wings players and system are better suited to an execution game than a track meet. Sure the Wings can skate and score, but they're preferred method to do so is in their amazingly efficient and effective offense system with a great defense backing it up. That is what they practice. That's the style they get into every game. That's the way they've dominated the regular and post-season for two straight years.

And that is EXACTLY why JQ needs to quit thinking he can beat them at it. Instead, take advantage of the fact that Detroit doesn't have the same level of talent the Hawks have in terms of a track meet game. The Hawks run four lines and six defenders out there who can flat fly. The Wings have two such lines and a couple of defenders.

Don't confuse the Wings high-scoring with an ability to play and up-and-down game at the highest level. If we've learned anything from watching the Wings so far, it's that they win on system and execution as much as pure athletic skill. So take away that system from them, make them work in a game that favors the Hawks, and all of the sudden the playing field tips in our direction.

Because when it comes to a track meet, the Hawks also have the experience factor. They are tried and true when playing that style, having just utilized it with great success in the high pressure situations against Calgary and Vancouver. Detroit is the exact opposite - not only have they not had to play that way, but they've had great success in a totally different system. Hence, it'll really throw them off to not settle into that huge, soft, loving comfort zone they have with their own style of game.

JQ, look back at the tapes of the Flames and Canucks series. Look at the 3rd period of Game 2. Now look at the tapes of all the 131 wins the Wings have had these past two seasons (yes, 131... so far). It should be obvious - unleash the full potential of your offense, get your young kids feeling the all-out flow of the game, and get the Wings out of their controlled, well-executed offensive and defensive systems.

Do this, and you will break Osgood. Sure, you'll give up some counter-attack goals along the way. But as the Wings have shown, they'll get those no matter how you play them. If you can get a boatload of goals yourself and keep them from getting into their offensive system, there's no question the Hawks can overcome those counter-attack goals.


Don't go out playing their game. Don't go out without showing them the best hockey the Chicago Blackhawks can play. As the great Governor Tarkin once said, "I think it's time we'd demonstrated the full power of this station."