Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Thoughts Before Game 2

It'd be pretty easy to write off the Hawks already. The Wings are the defending champs, they looked great all season, they've played well in the playoffs, and they seem to have the Hawks' number. On top of that, the Hawks are on a national stage for the first time and have to be pretty content with what they've accomplished already.

I think that's all nonsense. The Wings are an extraordinary team, but they've got their flaws. Just ask the Anaheim Ducks, who exposed enough of them to get a 2-1 lead with Game 4 at the Pond, and then play them to a 3-3 tie 57 minutes into Game 7 in Detroit. And the Hawks have their strengths - just ask the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks. They combined for 91 regular season wins and 198 standings points. But neither could last longer than 6 games with the Hawks.

So of course I respect the hell out of the Wings. But even after what I saw in Game 1, I am not about to tear up my Game 6 tickets. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and just say it for all posterity - this series will go 7. While everyone's talking sweep or being generous by including a 5th game, I say that's not how hockey works.

The Hawks are a legit team who went through a pair of capable, veteran squads with playoff experience. They've got talent, grit, a solid coach, and strong goaltending. And they have tapped into something a bit special for this playoff run.

That makes them a worthy Western Conference Finals opponent, even for the vaunted Red Wings. And worth Conference Finalists don't get swept out as some sort of foregone conclusion. Instead, I think the Hawks will take advantage of their home games and maybe even a surprise win in Detroit to force a Game 7. At that point, all bets are off.


So what happened in Game 1? The Hawks caught a few bad breaks - Versteeg hit the post early, Cleary beat Khabi for a soft goal, Seabrook played one of his worst games in years. They also had a hard time getting into the flow of the game - only the inspired 4th line of Eager, Burish, and Sharp was consistently evident out on the ice.

But most of all, they ran into a damn good team. Why is it any surprise that if the Hawks weren't playing well (outside of Khabi and that 4th line) that the Wings would take it to them? The Wings are good and they're playing good hockey. They're back somewhere they've been a million times before and doing it in front of a great home crowd.

But nothing I saw in Game 1 suggests that the Hawks can't win Game 2. And if they do, the Game 1 loss means absolutely nothing. The Hawks will be going back to the UC exactly where they wanted to be - tied 1-1.


So what will it take to win Game 2?

First off, Seabrook and Keith need to play a much stronger game. Look across the ice at the consistently productive shifts - offensively and defensively - that the ancient Lidstrom still takes every time on ice and you'll see what the Hawks need from their top blueline pair.

Second, the top three lines need to take a cue from the 4th liners and realize that the Wings can be beat if you are willing to out-hustle and out-work them. Burish, Eager, and Sharp were by far the least talented line the Hawks rolled out there, and yet they were the ones controlling the puck best and creating the most chances. How did that happen?

It happened because like they've done every game these playoffs, those three guys were going 100 MPH for every second of every shift. The rest of the Hawks need to do the same thing. Kane and Buff are the two best examples - when those two guys really commit themselves and go all out, they become absolute forces on the ice. But both love to sit back and disappear, looking lazy and disinterested while the game passes them by.

Similarly, both the Pahlsson-Versteeg-Buff and Bolland-Havlat-Ladd lines need to bring the inspired checking-line play they exhibited at different times this season. Pahlsson and Versteeg each had great chances they couldn't deliver on in Game 1, so that line isn't far off. If they get Buff going and show the same attitude that brought them back from the brink against the Flames in Game 4, this series will have a different look.

Same with the Bolland-Havlat-Ladd line. As impressive as Havlat was early, and as much as he's shown flashes throughout the rest of the playoffs, he hasn't been the bigtime impact player the Hawks need right now. In the regular season Havlat was making plays on both ends of the ice, using his skill and incredible hockey sense to be involved everywhere. But in the playoffs he's been content to hang back on the defensive end with one eye always on a breakout. The most effective way Havlat can help the offense in his own zone is by making good defensive plays. That changes the puck possession and often leads to those very breakouts Havlat's hoping for.

Third, the Hawks need to continue to do the little things in their own end to keep the Wings in check. While 5 goals seems like a lot to give up, the reality was that the Wings had the puck in the Hawks end a lot and didn't get as many great chances from it as you would have figured. If you were paying close attention, you noticed that the Hawks were keeping good position, were getting their stick in on pucks, and were being physical and hustling to keep the Wings from manufacturing great chances.

Think about the Wings first two goals - Cleary's was a breakaway and Franzen's directly from a bad turnover. It wasn't until their third and fourth goals late in the third that Detroit finally was able to get a goal by out-playing the Hawks in their own end. If the Hawks can continue to hold the Wings to only one or two goals that they've actually worked for, I think they'll be in great shape.

And the final thing that needs to happen - Khabi needs to play like he did after that first goal. As solidly as the Hawks played in their own end for the most part, they still allowed 43 shots. And a decent amount of those 43 were prime scoring chances. A big reason the game was still within reach up until the final minutes was because of Khabi. The guy stood on his head, making great save after great save, and throwing in repeated solid ones just to be sure.

Khabi has played well, for the most part, this post-season. But the stakes have most certainly been amped up and he needs to answer the bell. If he does, look out. First tho, as I mentioned in point 1 - Keith and Seabrook need to play better, both avoiding costly mistakes as well as disrupting the Wings offensive rhythm. Second, as I mentioned in point 2, the Hawks' scoring lines need to make an impact, which will significantly decrease the amount of time and the quality of chances the Wings get in the Hawks end.

If those two things happen and Khabi plays like he's shown himself capable, the Hawks are gonna win some games this series. I've said it before, but it bears repeating - Khabi has shown he can carry an unlikely team to a Cup. And there have been long stretches where that same Khabi has been evident. There's no question he's been recharged by this young, competitive team. He showed it in Game 1, doing everything he could to keep them in it. If he can keep that up - avoid those bad goals and make those stunning saves - the Hawks will be in every game and will definitely steal a couple.


So yes, I'd have liked to see the Hawks keep the Wings offense a bit more in check and get their own attack going a bit more. And I'd have liked to see the kind of mistake-free hockey that they're gonna have to play to prevail in seven games against a team like Detroit. But it was just one game, and a game we could afford to give away. But now we've only got one chance left to steal home ice advantage.

Just like they did with Luongo, it's time the Hawks deflate the legend that is the Detroit Red Wings.

Game on.

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