Monday, May 4, 2009

Canucks Game 2 Thoughts

Damn it feels good to be right!

That's not a toot of my own horn - just me absolutely reveling in the fact that the optimism I had after Game 1 proved to be accurate. The Hawks were the far superior ice hockey team in Game 2, at least when they keep themselves out of the box. And it feels freakin great to know that the Hawks control their own destiny - I firmly believe that if they play as they should, they will make an absolutely improbable Western Conference finals.

I really think the Hawks superiority when they stay out of the box could not have been proved more clearly - the Canucks burst out to a 2-0 lead after the Hawks inexplicably opened the game with multiple horrendous penalties. But as soon as the Hawks got into an extended stretch of hockey at full strength, they absolutely buried the Canucks. Five straight unanswered goals, every single one of them well-earned. No softies, no fluke bounces - just the Hawks out-skating, out-physicalling, and out-executing the Canucks on every level, and then beating one of the best goalies in the game.

It's really this simple - six of the seven Canucks goals (ignoring the empty-netter) this series have come either on the power play or during stretches in which the Hawks have been killing off significant penalty time. But when the Hawks stay out of the box and are able to settle into their own game, the Canucks have no answer for the myriad offensive weapons they bring. And when the Hawks are bringing their offensive fury to bear, the Canucks can't get their offense going. The rare times when Vancouver does get something going, Khabi is more than up to the challenge.


I can't wait for Game 3. Back home, JQ can dictate line match-ups all game. The crowd will be absolutely electric. And the Hawks will be skating with supreme confidence. They know they can come from behind. They know they can beat Luongo consistently. And they know that if they just stay out of the box, the Canucks have no chance.

But even if the Hawks blow one of these, I'm not worried. This team has shown they can pour it on when playing on the road. Think about this stat - of their five road playoff games this year, the Hawks have scored three straight goals in four of them. Yep. Read that again - four out of their five road games, the Hawks have scored three unanswered goals in the boiler room of playoff hockey.

Game 4 against Calgary, the Hawks roar back from a 3-0 lead to put three straight up in the second period. Game 6 against Calgary, the Hawks answer the bell with three straight goals to end the Flames season. Game 1 against the Canucks, the Hawks bounce back from a slew of terrible penalties to score three straight and tie up the game. And Saturday night, the Hawks again respond to an early deficit caused by bad penalties with five straight goals to take a commanding lead in a huge game.


In my mind, only three things can happen that would keep the Hawks from moving on to the Conference Finals:

1. Luongo stands on his head. That's an absolute possibility, given how talented he is. From what we've seen in the first two games it doesn't seem likely, but goalies can turn it on anytime, so this possibility has to be respected. And when a goalie gets in the zone few things can overcome him.

2. The Hawks continue to take dumb penalties. The Hawks aren't this kind of team, so it was surprising they came out in Game 1 and made the mistakes they did, but extremely surprising they repeated them in Game 2. I'm hoping that back home, with all the momentum and confidence, as well as the lessons learned from the first two games, that they'll play a smarter game and keep themselves out of the box.

3. JQ calls off the dogs. At this point I'm fairly convinced that Queneville gets that his team plays its best hockey when he lets them attack all out. Even when they had a 5-2 lead on Saturday, the Hawks were still pushing the puck deep into the Canucks end looking for another goal. It just never seemed like they took their foot off the pedal - even as the third period got under the 10-minute mark, the Hawks remained aggressive. So unless JQ has a major moment of dumbassness, I see the Hawks keeping the pressure up. But if they don't, that opens the door for both the Canucks offense to get going (it is most certainly potent if you give them chances) and for Luongo to get into a zone.


In all, I don't see those things happening. They're not totally improbable, but my best estimate is that the odds are slightly in the Hawks favor that none of those things play out. And if that's the case, I expect the Hawks to take this series. They're playing well and they have a boatload of talent. Look back and you'll see that they've gotten production from almost everyone on the team. Top liners like Toews, Kane, Havlat, and Sharp have all carried the team for stretches. Emerging stars like Bolland, Seabrook, and Versteeg have made their mark. Grinders like Buff, Ladd, Burish, and Eager have contributed significantly. And of course, Khabi has shown himself fully capable of getting the big saves the Hawks need, when they need it most.

It might seem like I'm reading a lot into one game, but I think it's more than that. The Hawks outplayed the Canucks in Game 1, only losing because of the slew of dumb penalties. And they dominated them in Game 2. On top of that, the Hawks had more points in the season and played the Canucks evenly head-to-head. The Hawks bested a more talented and accomplished opponent in Round 1. And now, the Hawks have home ice advantage.

Add those things up, and I think the Hawks are the favorites from here on in. Now they just have to continue to play up to their potential.

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