That was the opening line from my second round series preview - seems even more apropos now. Sure the Ducks fell short, but the fact that they took the defending champion Wings to seven games and were tied at 3 with three minutes left, shows that come the NHL playoffs, you really can throw the regular season out the window.
So sure the good money is on the Wings, but are any of you really gonna doubt what the Hawks can accomplish? This is a team that in the last series scored 11, yes ELEVEN, goals when they were losing. Against one of the top goalies in the league, a team with far more playoff experience, a team who was thinking defense first.
And that was after scoring 8 such goals in the opening series against a similarly challenging foe.
Yes, the Red Wings are wicked talented and they've got boatloads of experience. But the Blackhawks bring something pretty impressive to the table as well - the most impressive and genuine "never say die" attitude I've ever seen in sports.
And in the NHL, something like that can be enough. The Hawks have every ability to win this series. They have a defensive unit that some have called the best in the playoffs, including a pairing in Keith and Seabrook that one prominent national writer has already demanded be Canada's #1 unit in the Vancouver games in 2010.
They have multiple scoring options - seven forwards have seven points or more this post-season - meaning you can't hope to shut down one line and be safe. They can skate with any team in the league but also can be get physical and bang with any one. And they've got a guy in net who's been playing well all year, been particularly strong in the playoffs, and has already carried one team to a Cup.
So what stands between the Hawks and a title? A team who racked up 112 points (including a league best 53 points on the road) thanks to the NHL's top offense (295 goals) and a respectable defense (244 goals against - good enough to be in the top half of the league). A team who scores on 1 out of every 4 power plays (tops in the league) and offset one of the league's worst PK units by notching the second fewest penalty minutes. And a team stocked with veterans, starting a multiple-Cup winning goaltender, and fresh off a title run last year.
Historically, the Wings offer a good parallel for what we're seeing with the Hawks. After winning four Cups in six years in the 40s and 50s, the Wings didn't win another until 1996. That included a stretch of 13 years (in the 70s and 80s) with only playoff appearance. Sounds awfully familiar to our Hawks historic ups and downs.
Since breaking through in 1996, the Wings have won four of the 12 Cups awarded. So it's encouraging to know that the Wings were able to overcome a long Cup drought and a brutal stretch of non-playoff teams to become the powerhouse we know today. Slightly less encouraging - while the Wings did begin to turn things around in 91-92 when they became an annual 100-point team, it wasn't until 96-97 that they actually broke through and won a Cup. Here's to hoping it doesn't take the Hawks another 5 years before they hoist the chalice.
Like the Hawks, the Wings don't really have a first and second line as much as they have nine really strong forwards that Coach Mike Babcock can and will juggle around to spark his team. Unlike the Hawks, this is a very experienced team. But don't confuse experience with age - of the Top 9 forwards, only Tomas Holmstrom is over 32. This is a group of players right in the prime of their playing days, and their numbers this year bear it out.
If the Hawks continue to make the type of mistakes they have the past two series (the dirty little secret of all of their come from behind games was that the Hawks' own dumb mistakes and poor play put them behind in the first place), the Wings offense will make them pay and pay dearly. However, if the Hawks tighten up, bring a good strategy, and get great play from Khabi, I'm curious to see if the Wings offense still can be effective.
Based on the lines below - a best guess based on what Babcock has been doing for the better part of the post-season - the Hawks are looking at a top line with a pair of 30-goal scorers in Zetterberg and Franzen. And both guys have been clicking the post-season, with 29 points between them.
Both players are also very tough in the face-off circle, winning over 53% of their draws. In fact, that's something that will be a MAJOR issue in this series - the Wings have incredible face-off men. Not a single one of their top 7 face-off guys finished the year with under a 52%. Even strong centers like Toews and Pahlsson will have their hands full, while weaker links like Bolland, Sharp, Versteeg, and Burish are going to have to step up in a big way.
Joining them on the top line will be Cleary, a former Hawk and quietly solid 20-goal scorer type. He's decent sized and will sit in front of the net looking for garbage. In fact, it was his work in front of the net that resulted in the series winning goal against the Ducks in Game 7. Franzen also has some size and given how the Red Wings can attack, the Hawks' blueliners will have to be ready and able to clear out guys camping in front of the net. So far that hasn't been a major challenge for the Hawks, but in this series it will be.
The "second" line is just as potent, if not more so, with Hart finalist Datsyuk and 40-goal scoring carpet-bagger Hossa. Datsyuk is the complete package, a scorer, play-maker, and amazing defensive forward who also is top notch on face-offs. Hossa, who took a one-year deal to give himself a shot at a title, is a proven sniper. They're joined by Holmstrom, a steady vet who can still get it done.
While this line hasn't been too dangerous in the playoffs so far, that might just suggest that they're ready to break-out now. However, if the Hawks can keep them in check, the Wings become a bit more vulnerable. This team is built to get scoring out of multiple lines and against the Hawks offense, they'll need just that. But if the second line doesn't step it up, the Wings will face similar struggles to what they saw in the Ducks series.
It's not as if things get so much easier after the top two lines, as for a third line, the Wings put out the type of guys fully capable of being a #2 for most teams. With a bit of youth and some size, the Wings get serious production out of their third-liners, and that's carried over into the playoffs. Equally important is these skaters' ability to match up with the guys from the top two lines to give Babcock flexibility to juggle his lines for maximum effect. A lot of the Wings' turnaround in the Ducks series was contributed to new pairings that exploded in Games 4 and 5.
While the NHL is known for its player turnover, somehow Draper, Maltby, and McCarty are still skating with the Wings. McCarty isn't active, but did skate in 16 games this year. Draper and Maltby were both full-time 4th liners for the Wings this season and did their standard respectable job of it. Draper showed his age, missing all of the playoffs until Game 7, but still is a beast in the face-off circle and combined with Maltby, give the Wings an incredibly experienced 4th line to chew up some minutes.
The question is can these old-timers, even when bolstered by some youth, keep up with the Hawks speed, even the Burish-Eager-Brouwer line? Or can they make up for it with guile? If Kopecky can return from a broken face suffered in a beating from Francois Beauchemin (really - who gets their face broken by a guy with a name like that - the Wings are soft, my friends!), that'd help, as will the continued solid play of the very green Helm and Abdelkader.
The Red Wings blueline took a hit when Lilja got a concussion that continues to saddle him with headaches, keeping out of the entire post-season to date. A solid stay-at-home defenseman, the Wings have had to shift their Top 4 a whole lot more than they'd like, especially in that Ducks series, and that can take its toll.
This is a major point of interest for the Hawks. Given how strong their offense is, the pressure they bring, and the number of dangerous lines they run out there, the Wings will need to be at top form every shift on the blueline. Lidstrom remains as strong as they come, but at 39 can he continue to be as sharp given all the minutes he's logged? Rafalski already missed 5 playoff games and at 35 has own age issues draggin him down.
Not to say the Detroit blue line isn't strong - it is. But Columbus and Anaheim combined couldn't match the firepower that the Hawks bring. Are the Wings ready for the offensive attack? Especially given that Lidstrong, Rafalski, Kronwall (a very solid young offensive defenseman), and Stuart (a classic stay-at-home type) are playing the great majority of minutes.
Babcock has tried to ease their pain a bit by upping the minutes of unproven Ericsson, but will he continue to play well this series? Lebda is serviceable, but it's clear that Babcock doesn't love to use him any more than he needs to. And if any of the Top 4 do go down, the depth left over is non-existent, as Chelios and Meech barely saw the ice when they dressed in place of Rafalski.
While the Wings most definitely will try to offset the Hawks offense with their own - both by scoring and putting the Hawks on the defensive - the Detroit blue line is gonna have to show up to get them past the upstart kids. And they most certainly can - they've proven that time and again. Just like the Flames and Canucks, they'll try to make up for physical short-comings by playing smarter and executing their strategy better.
They'll have help from a very athletic group of forwards that will neutralize or even hamper the Hawks blueliners' ability to start the offensive rushes. That will be a major factor to watch. But so will the Wings blueliners ability to keep the Hawks from working in their end. It could go either way - again, gonna be interesting to see how this plays out.
As for special teams, there are three stories of note. First off, the Wings power play is flat nasty. That means that the Hawks need to both be on top of their game on the penalty kill - something they're capable of - but also play smart and stay out of the box. That's been an issue for the Hawks and it can be something that makes this series end before it starts. The Hawks need to continue to be physical - that can take the skilled Wings off their game - but they need to do it intelligently so as not to give the Wings potent PP unit too many chances.
The second story is the Wings woeful penalty kill. Given how well the Hawks have done on the power play, this could be a real Achilles Heel for the Wings - it could allow the Hawks to get those momentum changing goals throughout the series. The third story is wrapped into the first - the Wings don't take a lot of penalties. This isn't surprising from a highly skilled team that has boatloads of experience. The Hawks need to take the game to the Wings, get them on their heels, tire them out and work them over. If they do so, the penalties will come, from exhaustion, desperation, and frustration.
The final swing point of the series - goalkeeping. So far Osgood has been his solid self. Not quite as good as he was last year, when he resurrected his career with another title run, but definitely capable. Still, he has not had to face much in terms of offense, as while the Ducks have a couple of solid scorers, they aren't the full-on potent collection the Hawks are. And the Blue Jackets were more of a grind-em out team.
Can Osgood - who's been inconsistent all season, who posted a pair of 8-goal games, and who had to take time off to get himself together mentally - handle the onslaught the Hawks will bring? Obviously the first part of that question is whether the Hawks can bring that onslaught against the Wings, as they've done to the Canucks and Flames.
But if the Hawks do, is Osgood up to the challenge? While Kiprasoff was over-worked and out-matched, Luongo was well-rested and has all the talent in the world. He was supposed to be the best, yet the Hawks made him look foolish, brought him to tears (literally). Can Osgood do any better, given his checkered past this year? If he isn't all there, then I think the Wings will be in for a rude awakening, even more so than when they were down 2-1 against the Ducks, with Game 4 in Anaheim.
Should be a hell of a series between two highly talented clubs - one the experienced and proven winners, the other the hungry upstarts. Say it loud, say it proud - DETROIT SUCKS! DETROIT SUCKS!
.JPG)
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