Part II - Forwards
Here last week I touched on what I think will be effecting the team's play throughout the regular season. I should also add I think the trip to Europe will be a real plus, bringing an already tight young squad closer together. For a proven veteran team, such a long trip could be exhausting and distracting, but for a team still trying to establish itself, I think this sleep-away camp experience will be tremendous.
Now, to the forwards. Tomorrow - the defenders and goalies. The skaters are organized more or less in the lines/pairings I'd run out there:
Toews #19
Pos: C
Age: 21
08-09: 34 G, 35 A, +12 in 82 games
As I said last week, I don't see the Olympics effecting his focus, nor do I see him putting too much pressure on himself, as he did to start last year. It's crazy to realize that his 34 goals all came after he failed to score in the first 11 games. This year I can see him breaking both the 40 G and 40 A mark while continuing to develop into an intangible force - a physical presence who does the dirty work and effects the game on both ends. Even if his stats don't go up - what matters is that he continues to develop into that all-around player who matters every second he's on the ice.
As Captain and all-around good guy, expect Toews to get his contract locked up pretty quickly. Keith and Kane might take a little longer, but in the end I'm sure the Hawks will lock up all three. These players mean too much not to, and I bet they all are willing to sign to continue to be part of the special thing that's going on here.
Kane #88
Pos: W
Age 20
08-09: 25 G, 45 A, -5 in 80 games
Kane's numbers didn't change a whole lot from his Rookie of the Year campaign, which is a bit frustrating and a bit encouraging. You'd expect either a natural step forward or even a sophomore slump as he adjusts, but Kane really didn't have either. Despite the calls of immaturity and a lack of commitment, Kane deserves a boatload of credit that he's never gotten. That's for coming back so quickly from that high ankle sprain (something that doesn't heal for months) and fighting through it the entire season and playoffs.
Hopefully the off-season was enough to finally heal the ankle and we'll see the Kane who looked like he was taking the next step in the first half of last year. I have faith that's the case, especially after the way he's played in the first two games. Coming back so quickly from that injury showed me Kane really cares about the game of hockey and the Hawks. While his goofy attitude off ice might hide that, I think Kane is gonna be a winner for years to come. He's talented and he showed in the playoffs that he can step up when it really matters. Yes, he'll still take shifts off and get lost in a lot of games, and yes he still has a ton of growing up to do, but Kane will get there.
With the team being so good and so many players being counted on, I see Kane settling into what he does best and taking that expected step forward. 30 goals, 60 assists, and finally a plus rating for the season (something he's never had). And I think he'll do great in the Olympics, where the bigger ice and less physical play will allow him to really shine for Team USA.
Sharp #10
Pos: W
Age 27
08-09: 26 G, 18 A, +6 in 61 games
Sharp's name has come up a lot as a guy who's on the block, someone who probably will be a cap casualty once the Big Three (Toews, Kane, and Keith) sign their longterm deals. Given that all three of those guys are too young to work any longterm deal shenanigans, it is a legit concern. However, I think the Hawks would be unwise to part with Sharp, who's the closest thing they have to a steadying veteran force on and off the ice.
The guy is only 27 and just like the rest of the Hawks, really only has been a significant factor on a team while skating in the Indian Head sweater. But Sharp is clearly someone the kids respect both for his leadership and his play.
He's also an impressive combination of sniper and defensive factor. He followed up his 36 goal campaign two years ago with 26 in only 61 games last year. And that includes a number of games when he returned but was clearly hobbled. His play in the post-season last year really impressed me - not only that Sharp was a contributor, but that he fought through the injuries and admirably filled whatever role JQ asked him to.
Sharp played anywhere from the 1st line to the 4th. He centered and he took a wing. He focused on defense, offense, working in the corners, killing penalties, skating on power plays. I know it won't be easy to keep everybody, but Sharp is the type of player I don't want to lose. He's the rare combination of star-type talent and workmanlike attitude. You need that if you want to take the big prize, and thus I want to see this guy kept around.
As for this season, I see not much changing from the previous years. He'll get his 30 goals, he'll be over 20 assists, and he'll do it all with a really solid plus-minus. Though JQ moves his lineup around a lot, I can see Sharp being pushed back to the third line so that Hossa can skate with Toews and Kane upon his return. But that's no knock on Sharp - he'll provide the two-way skill and scoring threat that a top third line will need, making the Hawks dangerous no matter whose shift it is.
Hossa #81
Pos: W
Age: 30
08-09: 40 G, 31 A, +27 in 74 games with Detroit
While we won't be seeing Hossa for a few months, once he does get onto the ice we're gonna be impressed. Campbell got the big money last year because he was a good player who filled a hard-to-find role. Hossa isn't like that - he got the big money because he's one of the best players in the NHL. Period.
He's good for 35-45 goals and 35-50 assists in any given year. In seven year stretch starting in 99-00, he never failed to play 78 games (and played over 72 each of the past two years). He's only been a minus once in his whole career. Four times he's made it to the second round or further in the playoffs and during those runs has 27 G and 40 A in 72 games. And at 6-1, 210 and about 50 PIM a year, he's a physical presence.
While the loss of Havlat without the immediate replacement of Hossa will challenge the Hawks, I think they're up to it. As I mentioned, I think it will allow some of the other guys to step up and be more of a factor. But it also will allow Hossa to rest and keep his legs, something a guy who's made back-to-back trips to the Cup Finals needs. I expect he'll be full speed sometime in the second half, giving him the legs he needs down the stretch and through the playoffs.
Bolland #36
Pos: C
Age: 23
08-09: 19 G, 28 A, +19 in 81 games
I gotta admit that I saw Bolland as a bit of a waste two years ago. He was centering the 2nd or 3rd line, but didn't seem to do much. There wasn't much talk about him and I didn't see where he fit. I also didn't realize how young he was, but still, there just wasn't much for excitement to him.
I wasn't wrong that Bolland isn't exciting, but I was dead wrong that he didn't fit. Much like Sharp, he's exactly the kind of player you need to win. Bolland works hard on both ends of the ice, killing penalties and creating offense with equal skill. He'll never be a star, but he should be a solid #2 or #3 center his whole career, playing on winners all along.
At 23, Bolland still has some work to do. His face-off percentage needs to be up near 52%, especially if he's gonna be a key penalty killer. And with the type of talent he'll be skating with, his assists need to get up near the 40 mark. But if he can be a 20 goal, 30-40 assist guy who wins more face-offs than he loses while effecting the game on both ends, he'll be damn valuable.
I was pumped to see the Hawks commit to this kid longterm and look forward to seeing him anchoring our second and third lines for a while. I predict him reaching that 20-goal, 30 assist range, and if JQ keeps him skating with scorers and playmakers all year, he could top 40 assists.
Versteeg #32
Pos: W
Age 23
08-09: 22 G, 31 A, +15 in 78 games
I freakin love this guy. He was so unheralded coming into the year, but that allowed him to go all Mark DeRosa or Aaron Rowand on us and become loved because of it. "The Steeg" deserves it too, as his production and all-around play were damn impressive for anybody, let alone an unknown rookie.
Versteeg has the rare gift of playmaking, probably the most valuable skill in all of hockey. While goals get all the hype, it's the ability to create the plays that lead to the goals that truly is valuable. And Versteeg can do that in spades. Nearly every game he does something that impresses me.
But what really excites me about this guy is that JQ hasn't used him correctly yet. Versteeg never got to mesh with a line because he was up and down the lineup more than any other skater. Often times that meant he was mismatched with players incapable of taking advantage of the opportunities he'd create.
This year, I'm hoping JQ realizes what he has and keeps Versteeg skating with some real offensive skill players. Guys who can score off of his plays and can create a bit themselves to set him up. It's true that Versteeg can grind and play good defense, but that doesn't mean he should be handicapped with unskilled linemates (I'm lookin at you Buff and Brouwer).
The Steeg can easily score 30 goals and help on 40 if JQ utilizes him correctly. Given that he's got his big contract and is a part of this team for a while (hopefully), it's time to get everything you can out of him.
Ladd #15
Pos: W
Age: 23
08-09: 15 G, 34 A, +26 in 82 games
A former first round pick, Ladd really broke out last season, but in a way no one expected. A pretty big guy, Ladd seemed like he'd be a garbage cleaner in front of the net who if he did make it big, would be scoring a bunch of ugly goals. But Ladd's 15 G total, while solid, was his least impressive accomplishment last year.
Instead, Ladd emerged as a guy who could help make plays (only Havlat and Kane had more helpers from a forward spot) and play solid defense. I think his defensive skill was mildly over-rated, given that JQ never skated him on the penalty kill. But in a five-on-five situation, he was definitely a plus defender and helped make last year's checking line one of the best in the NHL.
While Versteeg is no Havlat (yet), I think that JQ can get about the same defensive-lock down ability and scoring pop out of a Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg line, given the advancement of all three young players and the increased effort Versteeg provides over Marty. And given that they're all 23, all signed for a few years, and provide the perfect compliment to one another, I think this is a line that should skate together for years.
In such a line, it's possible Ladd could step up to the 20-goal plateau or beyond as he continues to mature. Although I really see him more likely to settle in at 15, while anything near his 30+ assist total of last year would be great.
Madden #11
Pos: C
Age: 36
08-09: 7 G, 16 A, -7 in 76 games with New Jersey
Brought in to replace the defense-only role of Pahlsson, Madden might be an even better fit. Pahlsson was a bit younger and more skilled in the face-off circle, but Madden is more of a leader and has a better scoring touch. On top of that, Madden is pretty motivated coming of his worst statistical year and knowing this could be his last chance to again hoist the Cup (something he's done with the Devils twice).
Madden should win more face-offs than he loses, should skate against the other team's top line every night, and should be able to score around 15 goals and get 20 helpers. That's pretty much what he's done his whole career. And when Hossa returns, he may even drop down to join the energetic youngsters in one of the top scoring and energy fourth lines in the league.
The only question is does he still have anything left in the tank? After scoring 20 goals and dropping 23 assists two years ago (the best season of his career), last year Madden fell off a bit. Will the new environment re-energize him? Even if not, Madden will still be a plus-center to have on that fourth line and a great guy come playoff time.
Kopecky #82
Pos: C/W
Age: 27
08-09: 6 G, 13 A, -7 in 79 games with Detroit
A quiet workman contributor coming off only his second full season, Kopecky has impressed his fellow Hawks by showing more skill than expected. A decently big guy at 6-3, 205 who plays with toughness, Kopecky has never filled up the scoresheet. But it's possible he's got more to offer than what has been required of him so far in Detroit.
Playing on the third line with some other offensively gifted types, Kopecky might just become a 15-goal, 25 assist guy. But even if he remains an offensive liability, the Czech will be valuable for the grit and intangibles he brings with him from Detroit. His ability to play center or on a wing gives JQ some line flexibility, especially once Hossa comes back. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kopecky centering a tough and highly capable checking line with Buff and Sharp in the second half.
Byfuglien #33
Pos: W
Age: 24
08-09: 15 G, 16 A, +7 in 77 games
As I mentioned yesterday, Buff has really impressed in training camp and might just have found his focus in time to earn a spot on Team USA. Whatever is driving Buff, let's hope it's a permanent thing. His skills are impossible to ignore, even if they aren't the prettiest thing on the ice. He's clearly a physical presence, he's got a decent scoring touch, and at only 24 and in just his third year as a winger, Buff may have a boatload of upside left.
Paired with a playmaker or two and dialed in every night, Buff can easily top 20 goals and maybe even push 30. He'll never be much more than a 20 or so assist guy, but if he can work hard down low and make other teams respect his presence on every shift, Buff could be an invaluable tool.
If that happens, the Hawks have a big decision to make, as Buff is part of that group of second tier guys, some of whom won't be able to stick around when the Big 3 get their money. Personally I'll never be sold on Buff and will always be waiting for his motivation to lag. My hope is that he has a great year, helps carry the Hawks to the Cup, and then is let go before he decides he's not that into working hard after all.
Fraser #46
Pos: C
Age: 24
08-09: 6 G, 21 A, +3 in 81 games
The forgotten man, it's possible Fraser might have found his role in the playoffs last season - the regular healthy scratch. He's still young and showed some great energy and decent skill, but to be a viable 4th or even 3rd liner, he's got to up his game physically and in the face-off circle. He was very solid defensively, skating on the penalty kill and doing well on the 4th line.
But to get regular shifts, he's got to be a force defensively, interrupting the other team's flow every second on the ice. And Fraser absolutely must be a plus face-off man. In fact, to really guarantee himself a spot, he's got to get over 52% - to the level where he's specifically getting sent out to win key face-offs in the defensive end.
With Burish and Hossa out, Fraser should get some ice time. He's got to take advantage and show himself a good role player if he wants to be a factor for the Hawks down the road.
Eager #55
Pos: W
Age: 25
08-09: 11 G, 4 A, +1 in 75 games
Eager isn't exactly the smartest guy on the ice and still lets his high-energy style get the best of him sometimes, but I think this kid has a hell of a lot to offer the Hawks. He's showed a decent scoring touch (11 G out of a 4th liner is impressive) and certainly brings the toughness, energy, and grit you want out of your 4th line.
But I also have been impressed with his speed and offensive skills, as at least once a game he makes a play that you wouldn't expect out of a 4th line bruiser. The speed and skill that Burish and Eager brought to the 4th line last season, while not sacrificing any toughness, is what made it the best such line in the NHL.
I'm hoping that if JQ does bump one of these possible 4th liners up to the scoring lines, its Eager. I really think that with a bit of confidence and experience, he could be a great addition to a top line. He's got the skills and speed to not hold back the playmakers, and his energy and size make him a real asset.
But even if he just remains down on the 4th line, Eager will be a great role player for this team, scoring about 10 goals, getting in a boatload of fights protecting his skilled teammates, and sparking the team when needed.
Brouwer #22
Pos: W
Age 24
08-09: 10 G, 16 A, +7 in 69 games
I've made no mistake about my lack of appreciation of Brouwer. I just have yet to see what he brings to the table. From what I've seen, he's not even close to skilled enough to be a scorer or playmaker, but he also doesn't have enough of a motor or understanding of the game to be an intangibles type. He's not a great defender, he's not a physical bruiser, he's not a gritty cornerman.
I guess he does a little bit of all of that stuff OK and was still a rookie last year, but I will never understand JQ's love affair with this guy. He's totally miscast as a compliment to the top line guys, yet JQ continues to pretend Brouwer can fill that role. The fact that while skating with the studs he did all of last year he could only net 10 and assist on 16 is atrocious.
I'd pretty much rather see any skater on the Hawks, except maybe Fraser, get scoring line time than this guy. Put Brouwer on the 4th line and let him prove he can provide those intangibles that he supposedly brings to the scoring lines. Intangibles aren't automatic - you've got to learn how to contribute in that fashion. On the 4th line, Brouwer will have the opportunity to do so, and might just develop into the player JQ pretends he is. But for now, be happy with him as a solid 4th liner capable of double-digit goals and solid enough all-around play.
Smolenak #52
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 0 G, 1 A, +1 in 6 games with Tampa Bay
A last-second addition to the opening day roster, Smolenak is a bit of a mystery to me. He's only 22 so he's still got plenty of time to prove himself and the Hawks clearly think he's got the chance, as they grabbed him off waivers and gave him a shot with the big league team.
It's possible, in fact probably likely, that Smolenak will only stick for as long as the Hawks need to keep Skille buried in the AHL to avoid a cap penalty. Supposedly that was the biggest factor in deciding to farm out their former first round pick rather than give him his shot with the big league team.
But I'm curious to see what Smolenak can do. He started out right by netting a pair of goals in his first exhibition game, so maybe he'll pull the often-seen ride the wave of a new setting to an uncharacteristic scoring binge thing. If he provides a bit of a spark on a third or fourth line to start the year and then fades into Bolivia, then so be it. And if he just keeps a seat warm for Skille before turning into another possible prospect in Rockford, that's fine too.
Skille #20
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 0 A, -3 in 8 games
First off, it's pronounced "Skill-ee" at least according to Pat Foley. A first round draft pick, Skille looked decent enough in 16 games two years ago but took a step back last year when injuries and iffy play moved Troy Brouwer in front of him on the organizational depth chart. As I've made clear here many a time, I think Brouwer sucks, so I'm hoping Skille can pass him back up.
If I'm JQ, I'm taking my lips of Brouwer's undeserving butt and sticking him squarely on a 4th line, where he might just develop into a productive role player. And I'm allowing Skille, when he eventually comes up - seems like that's the Hawks' plan - to skate on one of the top three lines. Skille is not a grinder - he's got great wheels and a bit of a scoring touch, having scored 16 and 20 goals in about 60 games in the AHL each of the past two seasons.
Put this kid in a position to succeed and see if you've got a real player here. The Hawks have no shortage of grinders and Brouwer has been given his chance - and failed miserably - to show he can profit from playing on a scoring line. So let's see what Skille can do with a playmaker like Versteeg, Kane, Toews, or Bolland on his line. Don't bring the kid up and bury him with Frasier on the 4th line, where offense doesn't exist. What will we learn about him from that? With Hossa out you've got a spot on the Top 3 lines, so let Skille have it (once the cap issues sort themselves out) and start to discover what we really have here.
Burish #37
Pos: C/W
Age: 26
08-09: 6 G, 3 A, +3 in 66 games
Unfortunately, we won't see much of Burish this regular season. His loss will definitely be felt on the 4th line, where he brought energy, toughness, and a spark that is always needed. He was the team's top pest, getting to the mentally soft on a nightly basis.
The good news is that we know what Burish is and his game won't take long to return. Hopefully he'll get better in time to get his legs under him and be fully ready to go come the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Like Eager, his speed and skill are rare finds in such tough and energetic 4th liners. I'm really excited to see a 4th line of the veteran Madden winged by Eager and Burish providing the Hawks with another legit group to roll over every night.
Part III - Defensemen
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Thursday, October 1, 2009
Predicting 2009-2010 (Part I)
Part I - Overview
I'm gonna start by saying that I think it's ludicrous to predict the playoffs before the season, in any sport. The playoffs are a second season themselves and based FAR more on what happens during the season than what you expected coming into it. Predicting the 2010 NHL playoffs right now makes about as much sense to me as predicting the 2010-2011 season.
So all you're gonna find from me here is a prediction of what I expect out of the Hawks between Friday's puck drop in Finland (11 AM start) and their final game in April, on NBC against the hated Wings.
Speaking of NBC, while the national networks had no foresight last year (was it not clear that the young Hawks team would be a national sell?), this season the Hawks will be on nationally quite a bit. I count 9 Versus games (including the Friday opener) and an impressive four NBC games. The Hawks are finally getting the national exposure that such a gifted young squad deserves.
Now to what I expect to see out of the Hawks during the next six months. First, I think they'll be pretty hungry out of the gate. Last year they were hungry, but also uncertain. They hadn't even made it to the playoffs yet and only a couple of guys had even played a meaningful role on any playoff teams at any time in their career.
Not so this year, as the team is coming off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals that included series victories over legit teams in Calgary and Vancouver (I saw one national writer predict the Canucks would win the West this year). All their additions - Hossa, Kopecky, Madden - are ring wearing vets who've been through the fire. On top of that, an off-season of overblown turmoil should have the team committed to re-focusing the media attention back onto the ice.
But don't discount that as a team of young, unproven, but highly talented individuals, the Hawks have a number of players looking to establish their place on their national teams. All pre-season everyone has been talking about how great Buff has looked. Buff has always shown flashes of great things, but as I've consistently made clear here, the guy loses interest all the time. When that happens, he becomes worthless on the ice.
So the question is always which Buff are we going to get? After last regular season, when we saw him take a step back, for a stretch of games in the playoffs Buff was outstanding. But what was lost is that before the playoffs ended, he had gone back to his disappearing act. Now what?
I see this pre-season hunger carrying over into the regular season as Buff tries to earn himself a place on Team USA for the Vancouver Olympics in February. Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Toews, Kane - all of these guys also have a shot at making their squads and will want to prove they deserve it.
What kind of effect will this have on the team? For Buff I think it will make him the player we always hoped he'd be, at least until the Olympics. The hope is that he does take off, does play well in the Olympics, and having tasted success, is finally focused and motivated to continue it. What about the rest of the guys - will they focus too much on individual accomplishments? Will on-ice selfishness turn to off-ice issues?
I think the defenders will actually be helped by this pursuit. Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell know that their place on Team Canada will be based on their defensive work. In Campbell's case, that's because his offensive contribution is already proven, so if he can be a solid two-way guy, he'll have a shot.
There are talks of Keith and Seabrook being the #1 unit for Team Canada - a pretty lofty perch, but given the way they play together, they just might be the best combo in the world. That sounds strange, but if you're the best pairing from the most talented country, you're the best there is. To prove this is the case, Keith and Seabrook won't need to inflate personal numbers but instead do what they always do - shut down the other team's top line while sparking their forwards.
I think the more realistic concern is with Toews and Kane, and probably moreso with Kane. Toews could, as he did to start last year, put too much pressure on himself and struggle out of the gate. But I think he's too committed to the Hawks to let the Olympics take away from his game, especially having seen what not having his head in the right place will do. Instead I've got faith Toews will come out of the gate playing as well as he did to end last year.
Kane, on the other hand, could be an issue. He is similar to Buff in that his focus and commitment seems to lag here and there. He's so talented he's able to make a play or two every game anyway, but there's a real difference with Kane when he's working hard every shift and when he's just floating around the ice. All the rumors about him have suggested that while Toews is 21 going on 40, Kane is 20 going on 15.
So the draw of the Olympics could play on Kane's immaturity and have him thinking a bit too much about himself. Not only would that hurt his and the team's play, but it could upset the lockerroom. On the flipside, it's possible Kane uses the Olympics like Buff does, as a reason to be busting hump on every single shift of every game. His talent is immeasurable, so if Kane were to put it all out there every night, we could see him elevate from star to superstar.
In all, I see the Hawks dealing with the standard ups and downs that every team does, but I think there will be far more ups than downs and that the Hawks might just be able to overtake the Wings for the division. The Wings have lost some significant talent and have to be worn down by two straight brutal runs to the Cup Finals. Their goalie situation remains a concern (how much longer can Osgood remain top form?) and a lack of regular season focus has to be an issue for a team clearly playing for the big prize.
Not that the Wings will be a push over - they still are absurdly talented and play a great system of hockey. I think the Hawks might be able to catch or even surpass them in talent, but I don't see them ever equaling the Wings in the way they excel within their system. I see this year as a bit of a dog fight, with the Hawks at least having a shot to use Hossa's return to full speed and the continuing development of their immense young talent to catch the Wings down the stretch.
I don't see any early or mid-season injuries or struggles bothering the Hawks, as they'll have the talent to remain near the top of a Western Conference that isn't terribly deep. The only goal I have is for the Hawks to be fully healthy and clicking come the last month or so.
Winning the division and/or getting one of the top seeds in the West would be nice, but the Hawks are more than capable of post-season success as a bad seed. At the end of the day only a return trip to the Western Conference Finals will save this season from being a disappointment. Remember as Huet struggles or injuries mount or skaters disappoint that the Penguins looked to have taken a major step backward last year before they fired their coach, rediscovered themselves, and then blitzed straight to the Cup.
As long as the Hawks aren't showing any glaring issues or lose anyone to an injury that will cost them the playoffs, I've got faith that I'll be writing a very positive playoff prediction come April. I think both the Burish and Hossa injuries will allow the team to develop both scoring and grinder depth, so that upon their returns the Hawks will have a number of guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. And that's what's necessary to winning it all.
Final note - the biggest concern come the playoffs, if the team is healthy and playing like it should, will be Huet. Even if he has a Vezina regular season, he's fairly unproven come the post-season. But the same works in reverse - the regular season won't tell me a ton about Huet's ability to carry them. If he struggles now it won't bother me too much - he just needs to play like the guy who stood on his head in a must-win game against the Wings last May. Unfortunately, we won't know whether he can do that consistently in the Cup Playoffs until the Cup Playoffs.
So don't fret too much about Huet now - we'll have plenty of time for that this Spring. Instead, keep an eye on the health and effectiveness of the rest of the squad, none of whom are yet at a reliable place in their careers where you know what to expect.
Part II - Forwards, Part III - Defensemen
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I'm gonna start by saying that I think it's ludicrous to predict the playoffs before the season, in any sport. The playoffs are a second season themselves and based FAR more on what happens during the season than what you expected coming into it. Predicting the 2010 NHL playoffs right now makes about as much sense to me as predicting the 2010-2011 season.
So all you're gonna find from me here is a prediction of what I expect out of the Hawks between Friday's puck drop in Finland (11 AM start) and their final game in April, on NBC against the hated Wings.
Speaking of NBC, while the national networks had no foresight last year (was it not clear that the young Hawks team would be a national sell?), this season the Hawks will be on nationally quite a bit. I count 9 Versus games (including the Friday opener) and an impressive four NBC games. The Hawks are finally getting the national exposure that such a gifted young squad deserves.
Now to what I expect to see out of the Hawks during the next six months. First, I think they'll be pretty hungry out of the gate. Last year they were hungry, but also uncertain. They hadn't even made it to the playoffs yet and only a couple of guys had even played a meaningful role on any playoff teams at any time in their career.
Not so this year, as the team is coming off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals that included series victories over legit teams in Calgary and Vancouver (I saw one national writer predict the Canucks would win the West this year). All their additions - Hossa, Kopecky, Madden - are ring wearing vets who've been through the fire. On top of that, an off-season of overblown turmoil should have the team committed to re-focusing the media attention back onto the ice.
But don't discount that as a team of young, unproven, but highly talented individuals, the Hawks have a number of players looking to establish their place on their national teams. All pre-season everyone has been talking about how great Buff has looked. Buff has always shown flashes of great things, but as I've consistently made clear here, the guy loses interest all the time. When that happens, he becomes worthless on the ice.
So the question is always which Buff are we going to get? After last regular season, when we saw him take a step back, for a stretch of games in the playoffs Buff was outstanding. But what was lost is that before the playoffs ended, he had gone back to his disappearing act. Now what?
I see this pre-season hunger carrying over into the regular season as Buff tries to earn himself a place on Team USA for the Vancouver Olympics in February. Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Toews, Kane - all of these guys also have a shot at making their squads and will want to prove they deserve it.
What kind of effect will this have on the team? For Buff I think it will make him the player we always hoped he'd be, at least until the Olympics. The hope is that he does take off, does play well in the Olympics, and having tasted success, is finally focused and motivated to continue it. What about the rest of the guys - will they focus too much on individual accomplishments? Will on-ice selfishness turn to off-ice issues?
I think the defenders will actually be helped by this pursuit. Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell know that their place on Team Canada will be based on their defensive work. In Campbell's case, that's because his offensive contribution is already proven, so if he can be a solid two-way guy, he'll have a shot.
There are talks of Keith and Seabrook being the #1 unit for Team Canada - a pretty lofty perch, but given the way they play together, they just might be the best combo in the world. That sounds strange, but if you're the best pairing from the most talented country, you're the best there is. To prove this is the case, Keith and Seabrook won't need to inflate personal numbers but instead do what they always do - shut down the other team's top line while sparking their forwards.
I think the more realistic concern is with Toews and Kane, and probably moreso with Kane. Toews could, as he did to start last year, put too much pressure on himself and struggle out of the gate. But I think he's too committed to the Hawks to let the Olympics take away from his game, especially having seen what not having his head in the right place will do. Instead I've got faith Toews will come out of the gate playing as well as he did to end last year.
Kane, on the other hand, could be an issue. He is similar to Buff in that his focus and commitment seems to lag here and there. He's so talented he's able to make a play or two every game anyway, but there's a real difference with Kane when he's working hard every shift and when he's just floating around the ice. All the rumors about him have suggested that while Toews is 21 going on 40, Kane is 20 going on 15.
So the draw of the Olympics could play on Kane's immaturity and have him thinking a bit too much about himself. Not only would that hurt his and the team's play, but it could upset the lockerroom. On the flipside, it's possible Kane uses the Olympics like Buff does, as a reason to be busting hump on every single shift of every game. His talent is immeasurable, so if Kane were to put it all out there every night, we could see him elevate from star to superstar.
In all, I see the Hawks dealing with the standard ups and downs that every team does, but I think there will be far more ups than downs and that the Hawks might just be able to overtake the Wings for the division. The Wings have lost some significant talent and have to be worn down by two straight brutal runs to the Cup Finals. Their goalie situation remains a concern (how much longer can Osgood remain top form?) and a lack of regular season focus has to be an issue for a team clearly playing for the big prize.
Not that the Wings will be a push over - they still are absurdly talented and play a great system of hockey. I think the Hawks might be able to catch or even surpass them in talent, but I don't see them ever equaling the Wings in the way they excel within their system. I see this year as a bit of a dog fight, with the Hawks at least having a shot to use Hossa's return to full speed and the continuing development of their immense young talent to catch the Wings down the stretch.
I don't see any early or mid-season injuries or struggles bothering the Hawks, as they'll have the talent to remain near the top of a Western Conference that isn't terribly deep. The only goal I have is for the Hawks to be fully healthy and clicking come the last month or so.
Winning the division and/or getting one of the top seeds in the West would be nice, but the Hawks are more than capable of post-season success as a bad seed. At the end of the day only a return trip to the Western Conference Finals will save this season from being a disappointment. Remember as Huet struggles or injuries mount or skaters disappoint that the Penguins looked to have taken a major step backward last year before they fired their coach, rediscovered themselves, and then blitzed straight to the Cup.
As long as the Hawks aren't showing any glaring issues or lose anyone to an injury that will cost them the playoffs, I've got faith that I'll be writing a very positive playoff prediction come April. I think both the Burish and Hossa injuries will allow the team to develop both scoring and grinder depth, so that upon their returns the Hawks will have a number of guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. And that's what's necessary to winning it all.
Final note - the biggest concern come the playoffs, if the team is healthy and playing like it should, will be Huet. Even if he has a Vezina regular season, he's fairly unproven come the post-season. But the same works in reverse - the regular season won't tell me a ton about Huet's ability to carry them. If he struggles now it won't bother me too much - he just needs to play like the guy who stood on his head in a must-win game against the Wings last May. Unfortunately, we won't know whether he can do that consistently in the Cup Playoffs until the Cup Playoffs.
So don't fret too much about Huet now - we'll have plenty of time for that this Spring. Instead, keep an eye on the health and effectiveness of the rest of the squad, none of whom are yet at a reliable place in their careers where you know what to expect.
Part II - Forwards, Part III - Defensemen
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Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Burish Joins Hossa On The Shelf
The Hawks still are a few weeks away from dropping the puck on the 2009-2010 season in Finland and already two of their key pieces for the year are out longterm.
Shortly after the hubbub of the Hossa signing had died down, it was leaked that the $62.8M winger had a lingering shoulder injury from that would keep him out possibly for half of the season. More recent reports have Hossa with a November return, only costing him 1/5 of the season or so.
Just today it was announced that Adam Burish, the scrappy fourth liner who really came into his own as both a penalty killer and source of unexpected offense will be out for six months with an ACL injury.
So what does this mean? It means that the Hawks are looking smarter than us all - that includes the commentators who were insistent the Hawks had to deal away some forwards and all of us fans who believed much the same (myself included). On paper the Hawks looked like they were over-loaded both on the bench and on the cap sheet, but injuries have to be expected in the NHL, and thanks to this surplus of talent and payroll, the Hawks are in good shape to weather both of these major blows.
I don't pretend to be an expert on the Cap, but it's my understanding that an injured player doesn't count against your number, at least in some situations. With both Hossa and Burish being shelved for a while, I'm blindly guessing this means they'll qualify to come off the books temporarily and alleviate the current cap concerns.
The other big part of this story is that it opens up a pair of roster spots for some of the promising young Hawks prospects. As things stand, the lines will more or less resemble the following:
Toews-Kane-Sharp
Bolland-Versteeg-Ladd
Madden-Kopecky-Buff
Frasier-Eager-Brouwer
Now JQ is notorious for moving guys around, so the above is more for understanding who the Hawks have and what level of quality they are then predicting who will actually skate with whom to start the season.
When Hossa and Burish were expected to play, Frasier was probably out of a NHL spot and Brouwer nothing more than the extra forward. Now both are regular skaters while the 13th forward spot suddenly is attainable for any young Hawk who can impress the coaching staff.
The early favorite has to be Jack Skille, a former first round pick who's got good speed, has skated with the Hawks in the past, and has been impressive so far in training camp. Skille had some injury issues last year that kept him from building on a decent 07-08, when he scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 16 games with the Hawks.
Skille has never really dominated in the AHL as you'd like to see (scoring 16 and 20 goals and 18 and 25 assists in around 60 games each of the past two seasons). But he is fast, does have some skill, and given the way he's been noticeable all over the ice in the pre-season, seems to be highly motivated. I'd like to see him get a real chance to show what he can do at the NHL level.
Last year's first round pick, Kyle Beach, could also get a look, but he's still got junior eligibility left and isn't terribly polished, so he likely will get returned to his junior squad. He's a bit of a head case, but also a physical presence and real instigator who could provide some edge to an athletic Hawks roster.
I haven't heard about anyone else doing much to warrant the final spot, but you never know when a guy will come on. Jacob Dowell skated in a game late last year for the Hawks and has been talked about as a possibility this pre-season. Tim Brent appeared in a pair of NHL contests as well. Especially because the spot will often be a healthy scratch, the Hawks may want to carry a low ceiling guy who they don't mind short-changing out of regular ice time rather than a prospect they have high hopes for.
Personally I hope Skille gets the nod and both Frasier and Brouwer are challenged to earn their regular starts. Frasier needs to follow Burish's example and make himself an invaluable penalty killer and high-energy offensive type. That doesn't mean Frasier will get much for numbers, just that he has to work really hard to at least create chances and pressure the other team during that 4th line shift. He showed signs of being able to that last year, but the way he was scratched for the playoffs shows JQ isn't sold on him yet.
I've made no secret of my distaste for Brouwer, whom I felt didn't do much for the intangibles and certainly didn't take advantage of the plethora of chances he got playing on the Hawks potent scoring lines. I'd like to see him remain as a 4th liner and develop into a serviceable grinder, rather than be a drag on a scoring line as he was last year.
Between those two and Skille, you hope you can find a serviceable producer capable of moving up to a scoring line when necessary and an impactful fourth liner with athleticism, grit, and smarts. I think that'll happen.
The one wrench in all of these plans - Versteeg and Bolland both have been out with mysterious ailments. Bolland's seems to be largely precautionary, but Versteeg's injury was suffered in a pre-season game and could be more serious than is so far being reported. If both skaters have to miss time, the Hawk's offense is really going to be short-handed. If even one is out for a while, it'll be noticeable.
But if both do come back to start the season, I think the Hawks should be fine until they get Hossa in November or December. At that point the Hawks will have some decent depth to play through the other random injuries that certainly will hit. The hope will just be that everyone - including Burish - can be at full speed come the playoffs, when the Hawks season will really begin.
Shortly after the hubbub of the Hossa signing had died down, it was leaked that the $62.8M winger had a lingering shoulder injury from that would keep him out possibly for half of the season. More recent reports have Hossa with a November return, only costing him 1/5 of the season or so.
Just today it was announced that Adam Burish, the scrappy fourth liner who really came into his own as both a penalty killer and source of unexpected offense will be out for six months with an ACL injury.
So what does this mean? It means that the Hawks are looking smarter than us all - that includes the commentators who were insistent the Hawks had to deal away some forwards and all of us fans who believed much the same (myself included). On paper the Hawks looked like they were over-loaded both on the bench and on the cap sheet, but injuries have to be expected in the NHL, and thanks to this surplus of talent and payroll, the Hawks are in good shape to weather both of these major blows.
I don't pretend to be an expert on the Cap, but it's my understanding that an injured player doesn't count against your number, at least in some situations. With both Hossa and Burish being shelved for a while, I'm blindly guessing this means they'll qualify to come off the books temporarily and alleviate the current cap concerns.
The other big part of this story is that it opens up a pair of roster spots for some of the promising young Hawks prospects. As things stand, the lines will more or less resemble the following:
Toews-Kane-Sharp
Bolland-Versteeg-Ladd
Madden-Kopecky-Buff
Frasier-Eager-Brouwer
Now JQ is notorious for moving guys around, so the above is more for understanding who the Hawks have and what level of quality they are then predicting who will actually skate with whom to start the season.
When Hossa and Burish were expected to play, Frasier was probably out of a NHL spot and Brouwer nothing more than the extra forward. Now both are regular skaters while the 13th forward spot suddenly is attainable for any young Hawk who can impress the coaching staff.
The early favorite has to be Jack Skille, a former first round pick who's got good speed, has skated with the Hawks in the past, and has been impressive so far in training camp. Skille had some injury issues last year that kept him from building on a decent 07-08, when he scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 16 games with the Hawks.
Skille has never really dominated in the AHL as you'd like to see (scoring 16 and 20 goals and 18 and 25 assists in around 60 games each of the past two seasons). But he is fast, does have some skill, and given the way he's been noticeable all over the ice in the pre-season, seems to be highly motivated. I'd like to see him get a real chance to show what he can do at the NHL level.
Last year's first round pick, Kyle Beach, could also get a look, but he's still got junior eligibility left and isn't terribly polished, so he likely will get returned to his junior squad. He's a bit of a head case, but also a physical presence and real instigator who could provide some edge to an athletic Hawks roster.
I haven't heard about anyone else doing much to warrant the final spot, but you never know when a guy will come on. Jacob Dowell skated in a game late last year for the Hawks and has been talked about as a possibility this pre-season. Tim Brent appeared in a pair of NHL contests as well. Especially because the spot will often be a healthy scratch, the Hawks may want to carry a low ceiling guy who they don't mind short-changing out of regular ice time rather than a prospect they have high hopes for.
Personally I hope Skille gets the nod and both Frasier and Brouwer are challenged to earn their regular starts. Frasier needs to follow Burish's example and make himself an invaluable penalty killer and high-energy offensive type. That doesn't mean Frasier will get much for numbers, just that he has to work really hard to at least create chances and pressure the other team during that 4th line shift. He showed signs of being able to that last year, but the way he was scratched for the playoffs shows JQ isn't sold on him yet.
I've made no secret of my distaste for Brouwer, whom I felt didn't do much for the intangibles and certainly didn't take advantage of the plethora of chances he got playing on the Hawks potent scoring lines. I'd like to see him remain as a 4th liner and develop into a serviceable grinder, rather than be a drag on a scoring line as he was last year.
Between those two and Skille, you hope you can find a serviceable producer capable of moving up to a scoring line when necessary and an impactful fourth liner with athleticism, grit, and smarts. I think that'll happen.
The one wrench in all of these plans - Versteeg and Bolland both have been out with mysterious ailments. Bolland's seems to be largely precautionary, but Versteeg's injury was suffered in a pre-season game and could be more serious than is so far being reported. If both skaters have to miss time, the Hawk's offense is really going to be short-handed. If even one is out for a while, it'll be noticeable.
But if both do come back to start the season, I think the Hawks should be fine until they get Hossa in November or December. At that point the Hawks will have some decent depth to play through the other random injuries that certainly will hit. The hope will just be that everyone - including Burish - can be at full speed come the playoffs, when the Hawks season will really begin.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
I'm a Gemini, So I Expect The Unexpected
In case you don't get the obscure reference in the post title, it's from Kentucky Fried Movie, one of the more tasteless and hilarious movies there is. It's from the guys who made Air Plane and the Naked Guns, and is best described as 70s era SNL w/o censors. I mean absolutely no censors. Well worth seeing - it's probably as quotable of a movie as you'll find.
And while I'm pimping movies - if you haven't seen Slap Shot at least three to five times and you're taking the time to read a blog like this, you need to immediately rectify that situation. You can't be a hockey fan w/o being able to consistently quote and recognize quotes from Slap Shot, even the obscure ones.
Now to the actual point of the post title - apparently the Hawks management cannot be expected to do what everyone thinks they're going to do. Last year there was a lot of talk about the Hawks getting Campbell, as he fit a major need, the Hawks had cap space, and they wanted to take a big step forward. But no one saw the Huet signing coming, not with Khabi locked up for another year at an untradeable (hell, turns out un-waivable) number.
This year, much the same. It seemed the Hawks were gonna find a way to get Havlat back in the fold, as he seemed to legitimately want to stay in Chicago (if you believe the tone of his tweets) and his teammates seemed to share those sentiments (there was a story about them all texting him to re-sign).
Even if Marty did go elsewhere, the Hawks would either use that money in a new direction (an upgrade on the blueline) or find a lesser but still talented forward to take Marty's spot as a top line forward.
But again, no one saw the Hossa signing coming. Getting the top free agent for the second year in a row, again for the longest and richest contract of the off-season? Nope, definitely did not have that high on the list of expected stories from this off-season for the Hawks.
At first it seemed to completely defy logic - so much money and such a long contract for a 30-year old? But here's the reality on Hossa:
In fact, the Hawks actually saved money from last season's budget, as Havlat was a $6M hit. Coupled with the savings on Khabi (signed w/ Edmonton), the Hawks now have some room to maneuver. Amazing to upgrade your team and free up cap space at the same time.
And don't worry about the 12-year nature of the deal. It's really only an 8-year deal, as in the final four years Hossa gets paid next to nothing. So it'll be easy enough for the Hawks to unload him on a small market team who doesn't have the resources to approach the salary cap, but will appreciate needing to shell out less than $1M in real salary. And for the great majority of those years, Hossa should be worth every penny.
In all, I'm pretty damn stoked about this move. The reality is that the Hawks needed another top notch scoring option to go along with their young kids, and if it wasn't going to be Havlat, then getting Hossa w/o giving up any talent and only losing $5.2M in cap space is about as best case scenario as any of us could have hoped. Really - this is going to be a real winner of a signing.
Now like Campbell, Hossa will probably be hammered at times for not living up to his huge contract by the fans and the press, but just like Campbell, I expect that the actual knowledgeable fans will appreciate that he was well worth the price paid, especially when you factor in that the Hawks didn't lose any talent in acquiring him. Both guys are veterans who have rare skill sets and make their biggest impact when it matters most. A lot of money, a lot of years, but the Hawks will be successful because of it.
As for the rest of the Hawks' off-season moves, I love the Bolland signing. I think he will absolutely be worth the almost $3.4M he'll get each of the next five seasons. He's still very young (just turned 23 a few weeks ago) and is an impact player on both ends of the ice. I'd like to see Bolland really upgrade his work in the face-off circle, but he's got room to grow and fits this team well.
I'm also very pleased with the Kopecky and Madden signings. Kopecky is a guy who scored 5 and 6 goals in the past two seasons while playing a consistent 10 minutes a game on a highly talented and successful team. That means he brings something to the table besides scoring, which means toughness and strong defense. Plus, getting anyone who's come up in the impressive Wings system means you're getting a guy who knows how to play championship hockey on both ends of the ice. All those little things the Wings did to look so much better than the Hawks - Kopecky will bring those with him.
While Kopecky is still pretty young - turned 27 in February - Madden is fairly old (36 as of May). But Madden is a nice replacement for Pahlsson, bringin the same great defensive work and solid work in the face-off circle. A one-time Selke winner (top defensive forward), Madden brings years of the defense-first mindset and championship play of a longtime Devil.
I'm even more happy about these signings given that Pahlsson got almost $8M over three years from the Blue Jackets. I'd have loved to keep Sammy, but the Hawks couldn't afford that kind of cap hit for that long. Kopecky reportedly will only get a shade over $1M, which is inline with a talented 3rd or 4th line guy like he'll be. And while Madden will make about what Sammy got, it's only for one season, so next year, when the Kane-Toews-Keith triumvirate comes up, they'll have more flexibility.
And two bits of good riddance - not that I don't appreciate what they did for the Hawks last season, but I'm fine w/ the Hawks not paying their apparent market value. I'll take the more reliable health history of Huet and giving Niemi or Crawford a chance to back-up (tho remember, expect the unexpected with the Hawks... maybe there's still another goalie deal in the works) rather than paying another big chunk of change to Khabi. Similarly, Walker was of questionable worth at the league minimum last year, so no way I wanted the Hawks to match the $1.7M per that he got from the Lightning for the next four years.
So what now? Barker, Brouwer, Eager, Frasier, A. Johnson, and Versteeg all need to be re-signed (tho all are restricted free agents, giving the Hawks full matching rights). And w/ Walker gone, and AJohnson very possibly also (the Hawks didn't seem to think much of him), some plan needs to be made for the 6th and 7th defenseman positions (maybe a young kid like Jordan Hendry or a deal once free agency shakes out?). Given the signing of three forwards and the loss of only two, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks package one of their forwards who makes a bit of money (maybe Buff?) for a blueliner.
The main hope for me is that both Eager and Versteeg, like Bolland, are locked up for a long time. Both are incredibly valuable players who will only get better, and bring a toughness and skill combination that is absolutely necessary to post-season success. On top of that, I'd like to see any remaining dollars plowed into a stable stay-at-home defenseman. Do those three things and I'm feeling damn good about the Hawks next year.
And while I'm pimping movies - if you haven't seen Slap Shot at least three to five times and you're taking the time to read a blog like this, you need to immediately rectify that situation. You can't be a hockey fan w/o being able to consistently quote and recognize quotes from Slap Shot, even the obscure ones.
Now to the actual point of the post title - apparently the Hawks management cannot be expected to do what everyone thinks they're going to do. Last year there was a lot of talk about the Hawks getting Campbell, as he fit a major need, the Hawks had cap space, and they wanted to take a big step forward. But no one saw the Huet signing coming, not with Khabi locked up for another year at an untradeable (hell, turns out un-waivable) number.
This year, much the same. It seemed the Hawks were gonna find a way to get Havlat back in the fold, as he seemed to legitimately want to stay in Chicago (if you believe the tone of his tweets) and his teammates seemed to share those sentiments (there was a story about them all texting him to re-sign).
Even if Marty did go elsewhere, the Hawks would either use that money in a new direction (an upgrade on the blueline) or find a lesser but still talented forward to take Marty's spot as a top line forward.
But again, no one saw the Hossa signing coming. Getting the top free agent for the second year in a row, again for the longest and richest contract of the off-season? Nope, definitely did not have that high on the list of expected stories from this off-season for the Hawks.
At first it seemed to completely defy logic - so much money and such a long contract for a 30-year old? But here's the reality on Hossa:
- He's as durable as any in hockey - only once in the last decade failing to play 74 games and that year he played 60.
- He's as potent of a scorer as you'll find in any free agent class - the Crosbys and Ovechkins of the world aren't ever hitting the open market, so Hossa is as good as you can ever hope to get.
- He's as consistent of a scorer as any in hockey - failing to net at least 29 goals only once in the last decade, in the same year he failed to play 74 games (still had 26 goals in 60 games that season).
- He's a fairly big, fairly strong guy who is not easy to get off of the puck - this is no softy who will be lost in the rough-and-tumble of the playoffs. While he was a bit off this year (still scoring 6 goals and 15 points in 23 games), with the Penguins he had 12 goals and 26 points in 20 playoff games, and back during the Senators run to the Conf. Finals, he had 5 goals and 16 points in 18 games.
- He's a good player in all three zones - another huge key come playoff time, you've got to be able to play defense and want to do it. That was my one issue with Havlat this year - he disappeared defensively in the playoffs after being a real hard three-zone worker in the regular season. But come the post-season, Havlat floated up near the blue line too much, clearly looking for that breakaway chance. This is something I don't expect from Hossa.
- He's a winner - two straight trips to the Cup Finals and a Eastern Conference Finals trip back during his time in Ottawa show he's been there and can help his teams get it done. Sure he's still missing that Cup, but just getting there twice shows the impact this guy has.
In fact, the Hawks actually saved money from last season's budget, as Havlat was a $6M hit. Coupled with the savings on Khabi (signed w/ Edmonton), the Hawks now have some room to maneuver. Amazing to upgrade your team and free up cap space at the same time.
And don't worry about the 12-year nature of the deal. It's really only an 8-year deal, as in the final four years Hossa gets paid next to nothing. So it'll be easy enough for the Hawks to unload him on a small market team who doesn't have the resources to approach the salary cap, but will appreciate needing to shell out less than $1M in real salary. And for the great majority of those years, Hossa should be worth every penny.
In all, I'm pretty damn stoked about this move. The reality is that the Hawks needed another top notch scoring option to go along with their young kids, and if it wasn't going to be Havlat, then getting Hossa w/o giving up any talent and only losing $5.2M in cap space is about as best case scenario as any of us could have hoped. Really - this is going to be a real winner of a signing.
Now like Campbell, Hossa will probably be hammered at times for not living up to his huge contract by the fans and the press, but just like Campbell, I expect that the actual knowledgeable fans will appreciate that he was well worth the price paid, especially when you factor in that the Hawks didn't lose any talent in acquiring him. Both guys are veterans who have rare skill sets and make their biggest impact when it matters most. A lot of money, a lot of years, but the Hawks will be successful because of it.
As for the rest of the Hawks' off-season moves, I love the Bolland signing. I think he will absolutely be worth the almost $3.4M he'll get each of the next five seasons. He's still very young (just turned 23 a few weeks ago) and is an impact player on both ends of the ice. I'd like to see Bolland really upgrade his work in the face-off circle, but he's got room to grow and fits this team well.
I'm also very pleased with the Kopecky and Madden signings. Kopecky is a guy who scored 5 and 6 goals in the past two seasons while playing a consistent 10 minutes a game on a highly talented and successful team. That means he brings something to the table besides scoring, which means toughness and strong defense. Plus, getting anyone who's come up in the impressive Wings system means you're getting a guy who knows how to play championship hockey on both ends of the ice. All those little things the Wings did to look so much better than the Hawks - Kopecky will bring those with him.
While Kopecky is still pretty young - turned 27 in February - Madden is fairly old (36 as of May). But Madden is a nice replacement for Pahlsson, bringin the same great defensive work and solid work in the face-off circle. A one-time Selke winner (top defensive forward), Madden brings years of the defense-first mindset and championship play of a longtime Devil.
I'm even more happy about these signings given that Pahlsson got almost $8M over three years from the Blue Jackets. I'd have loved to keep Sammy, but the Hawks couldn't afford that kind of cap hit for that long. Kopecky reportedly will only get a shade over $1M, which is inline with a talented 3rd or 4th line guy like he'll be. And while Madden will make about what Sammy got, it's only for one season, so next year, when the Kane-Toews-Keith triumvirate comes up, they'll have more flexibility.
And two bits of good riddance - not that I don't appreciate what they did for the Hawks last season, but I'm fine w/ the Hawks not paying their apparent market value. I'll take the more reliable health history of Huet and giving Niemi or Crawford a chance to back-up (tho remember, expect the unexpected with the Hawks... maybe there's still another goalie deal in the works) rather than paying another big chunk of change to Khabi. Similarly, Walker was of questionable worth at the league minimum last year, so no way I wanted the Hawks to match the $1.7M per that he got from the Lightning for the next four years.
So what now? Barker, Brouwer, Eager, Frasier, A. Johnson, and Versteeg all need to be re-signed (tho all are restricted free agents, giving the Hawks full matching rights). And w/ Walker gone, and AJohnson very possibly also (the Hawks didn't seem to think much of him), some plan needs to be made for the 6th and 7th defenseman positions (maybe a young kid like Jordan Hendry or a deal once free agency shakes out?). Given the signing of three forwards and the loss of only two, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks package one of their forwards who makes a bit of money (maybe Buff?) for a blueliner.
The main hope for me is that both Eager and Versteeg, like Bolland, are locked up for a long time. Both are incredibly valuable players who will only get better, and bring a toughness and skill combination that is absolutely necessary to post-season success. On top of that, I'd like to see any remaining dollars plowed into a stable stay-at-home defenseman. Do those three things and I'm feeling damn good about the Hawks next year.
Monday, June 22, 2009
If I Were Dale Tallon (Part II)
Part I can be found here (or just right below this post).
In Part I, I discussed the Hawks forwards - who you could expect back, who I'd try to bring back, and who might not be around in 2009-10.
For Part II, it's on to the blueliners and goalies.
Keith (25:34 ATOI, +33, $1.475M), Seabrook (23:19 ATOI, +23, $3.5M), and Campbell (22:34 ATOI, +5, $7.15M) will not only assuredly be back next year, but almost certainly in 2010-11 and even well beyond. Campbell is locked up forever at an untradeable number, Seabrook is locked up through 10-11 (and is still restricted after that), and there's no chance the Hawks will let Keith get away after next season (when he's still a restricted free agent), no matter the cost.
Thanks to a strong post-season after being called up with only 19 regular season games remaining, Hjalmarsson (15:47 ATOI, +2 in the 38 combined regular season and playoff games, $645k) is looking like a very safe bet to be on the Hawks blue line in 2009-2010. And rightfully so - the Hammer has shown decent flashes in each of the past two regular seasons and stepped up to the challenge of playoff hockey quite impressively. Having just turned 22 a few weeks ago, with a full off-season to prepare for a regular spot, the Hammer is showing the upside to be a solid, feisty stay-at-home defender, despite his diminutive stature.
Much like Buff with the forwards, Barker (18:21 ATOI, -6) is the biggest question mark on the blue line. Unlike Buff, Barker made a consistent impact throughout the year, with a team-leading 25 PP assists and 40 total points. However, like Buff, Barker was maddeningly inconsistent - with good use of his size and stick often offset by glaring mistakes in the defensive end.
Barker is a restricted free agent, meaning he doesn't have a ton of negotiating room. However, he also made $2.77M last year and, as listed above, had some stellar numbers with which to command a significant paycheck.
There's no question the Hawks would miss Barker on the power play. More even than Campbell, Barker was the key blueline piece on one of the league's top units. And while Keith and Seabrook were also capable of lining up back there, both are too valuable otherwise to log many man advantage minutes. None of the other current in-house options are really good choices.
So losing Barker would create a significant void on the power play, a unit the Hawks relied on heavily, especially in the postseason. However, keeping Barker would mean yet another significant pay-out on the blueline, all without upgrading the unit defensively.
I'm really torn as to what I'd do with Barker. On some level I'd probably have to know what I could get back for him - my guess is that it's very significant. One of the reasons the Hawks invested so heavily in Campbell was because offensive blueliners are not easy to come by. It seems like there would be a lot of teams out there willing to trade significant assets to gain the services of a just-turned 23-year old with Barker's resume.
Ideally I'd keep Barker so as not to disrupt a power play that already is short on blueliners and also find a way to upgrade the final defensive spot with a veteran stay-at-home type who could compliment Campbell (allowing the speedster to push offensively with the confidence that his partner can clean up any messes). But financially that just might not be feasible. It might be a decision between Barker or adding that stay-at-home defenseman and keeping a forward like Pahlsson or Eager.
It's not an easy call, but gun to my head, I'm trading Barker for as much value as I can, restocking my system, and using the money to keep a Pahlsson or Eager as well as upgrade to that stay-at-home type the Hawks can so clearly use to round out their Top 4 defensemen. The Hammer and maybe Walker (for his size) or another emerging young kid or scrap heap type could skate as a strong third pairing.
Speaking of Walker (16:38 ATOI, +7), there's no question he brought some needed size and tenacity to the blueline. He's a pure free agent, but given that he only made $600k this year and is nothing more than a 6th defender at best, I don't think the Hawks would have to break the bank to bring him back. If it does turn out that there's a demand for his services, I say good riddance.
Ideally you can bring him back for about that same price (which is right around the minimum) and keep him as a 6th or 7th defender. Walker did get beat a ton during the playoffs, as the better skaters and teams exposed his utter lack of speed and inability to position himself to offset such. But Walker also worked very hard and is a hulk who uses every bit of his size, meaning he might just offset his downside, especially as he gets more comfortable in the Hawks' system. As a 7th defender, I'd love to have Walker, and I could even live with him as the 6th, if the Hawks would upgrade from Barker. But to keep Walker, Barker, and the Hammer means you're missing one true Top 4 defenseman, and most likely have to pair the lead-skated Walker and Barker together.
A guy I'm really curious about is Johnson (14:08 ATOI, +19), who started the year with 26 straight non-negative plus-minus games, only to get a bit banged up and never return to the regular mix. Not that plus-minus is everything, but a +19 and 26 straight games (the streak actually got all the way up to 31 before being snapped) without a negative seems to suggest a consistently solid blueliner. While in hindsight the decision was correct, it's very telling that even upon Wisniewski being dealt away, Johnson was skipped over by the Hammer.
Another pure free agent who definitely can be had for near the minimum, Johnson at the very least seems like the kind of guy worth keeping around for the same role he played this year - as a 7th defenseman. He just turned 26 at the end of April, so it's possible Johnson will get a bit better and produce as well as his numbers seemed to suggest. For some reason JQ doesn't seem to buy into those numbers, but it's still probably worth keeping him around to see.
Finally there's Sopel (for whom the Committed Indian - the bastard child of the old Blue Line - took to listing "talent" as the broken body part in their game night injury reports). Clearly the ugliest member of the Blackhawks, this year he was also the most worthless, looking impossibly slow and ineffective during 23 painful appearances at the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, in a rear misstep a few seasons ago, Tallon signed Sopel to a deal that promises him $2.33M each of the next two seasons. The NHL allows a team to buy out a contract, but a significant portion will still remain on the cap. The Hawks could try to find a taker, packing Sopel with some attractive young prospects to a team with cap space and a talent shortage, or by exchanging him for someone else's cap problem.
I'm trying to package him for a more expensive stay-at-home defensive option, both getting out from under dead cap space and upgrading somewhere the Hawks have a need. Somewhere out there exist an overpaid veteran blueliners who still is a strong contributors, just signed to bloated deal. Given how tight the cap is, why wouldn't a team give up that blueliner just for a bit of payroll relief?
If that can't happen, I'm not buying him out - one of the downsides is that the cap hit, while smaller, lasts for more years. I don't want to be hamstrung by Sopel for the next four seasons, as it becomes more and more difficult to pay everybody. Instead, I'd take the chance that he really was just hurt this year and can come back and possibly be that stay-at-home defender I'm looking for. If not, farm him out and bite the bullet for the season, then revisit again next year.
I've discussed this before, so I won't go too into detail, but my plan would be to let Khabibulin (2.33 GAA, .919 Sv%) walk and commit to Huet (2.53 GAA, .909 Sv %, $5.625M). Huet's a bit inconsistent, but I think with the right team around him and the right commitment to him, he could lead you to a Cup. He's shown the flashes of brilliance. He'll frustrate us all along the way, but Huet showed me a few things this year and clearly showed Tallon something in the past to earn his contract. I'm hitching my wagon to him.
Behind Huet, I like the idea of having Niemi and Crawford duke it out. Both looked solid down at Rockford this year, and both have been talked about as capable NHL goaltenders. Niemi might not want to stick around this hemisphere next year, as there are rumors he'd prefer to return to his native Finland. However, if he does stick around, the Hawks are in good shape - one of those two guys should emerge as a viable back-up, and maybe even the one to take over for Huet in 2011-12. And as we saw with Khabi this year - you need goaltender depth. Knowing that we'd still have two solid goaltenders on the roster if Huet or the back-up went down is a pretty comforting thought.
In brief summation, I'm resigning Havlat if his demands are reasonable, and then considering moving Buff and Barker, re-signing Pahlsson, looking for a veteran stay-at-home blueliner, ideally in place of Sopel. And if I can't re-sign Havlat, I'm probably not moving Buff or Barker yet, cause I should have the money to keep them both as well as to bring back Pahlsson and get my defensive defenseman.
Should be a fun couple of weeks - let's see what Tallon, McDonough, and the Bowmans have up their sleeves.
In Part I, I discussed the Hawks forwards - who you could expect back, who I'd try to bring back, and who might not be around in 2009-10.
For Part II, it's on to the blueliners and goalies.
Keith (25:34 ATOI, +33, $1.475M), Seabrook (23:19 ATOI, +23, $3.5M), and Campbell (22:34 ATOI, +5, $7.15M) will not only assuredly be back next year, but almost certainly in 2010-11 and even well beyond. Campbell is locked up forever at an untradeable number, Seabrook is locked up through 10-11 (and is still restricted after that), and there's no chance the Hawks will let Keith get away after next season (when he's still a restricted free agent), no matter the cost.
Thanks to a strong post-season after being called up with only 19 regular season games remaining, Hjalmarsson (15:47 ATOI, +2 in the 38 combined regular season and playoff games, $645k) is looking like a very safe bet to be on the Hawks blue line in 2009-2010. And rightfully so - the Hammer has shown decent flashes in each of the past two regular seasons and stepped up to the challenge of playoff hockey quite impressively. Having just turned 22 a few weeks ago, with a full off-season to prepare for a regular spot, the Hammer is showing the upside to be a solid, feisty stay-at-home defender, despite his diminutive stature.
Much like Buff with the forwards, Barker (18:21 ATOI, -6) is the biggest question mark on the blue line. Unlike Buff, Barker made a consistent impact throughout the year, with a team-leading 25 PP assists and 40 total points. However, like Buff, Barker was maddeningly inconsistent - with good use of his size and stick often offset by glaring mistakes in the defensive end.
Barker is a restricted free agent, meaning he doesn't have a ton of negotiating room. However, he also made $2.77M last year and, as listed above, had some stellar numbers with which to command a significant paycheck.
There's no question the Hawks would miss Barker on the power play. More even than Campbell, Barker was the key blueline piece on one of the league's top units. And while Keith and Seabrook were also capable of lining up back there, both are too valuable otherwise to log many man advantage minutes. None of the other current in-house options are really good choices.
So losing Barker would create a significant void on the power play, a unit the Hawks relied on heavily, especially in the postseason. However, keeping Barker would mean yet another significant pay-out on the blueline, all without upgrading the unit defensively.
I'm really torn as to what I'd do with Barker. On some level I'd probably have to know what I could get back for him - my guess is that it's very significant. One of the reasons the Hawks invested so heavily in Campbell was because offensive blueliners are not easy to come by. It seems like there would be a lot of teams out there willing to trade significant assets to gain the services of a just-turned 23-year old with Barker's resume.
Ideally I'd keep Barker so as not to disrupt a power play that already is short on blueliners and also find a way to upgrade the final defensive spot with a veteran stay-at-home type who could compliment Campbell (allowing the speedster to push offensively with the confidence that his partner can clean up any messes). But financially that just might not be feasible. It might be a decision between Barker or adding that stay-at-home defenseman and keeping a forward like Pahlsson or Eager.
It's not an easy call, but gun to my head, I'm trading Barker for as much value as I can, restocking my system, and using the money to keep a Pahlsson or Eager as well as upgrade to that stay-at-home type the Hawks can so clearly use to round out their Top 4 defensemen. The Hammer and maybe Walker (for his size) or another emerging young kid or scrap heap type could skate as a strong third pairing.
Speaking of Walker (16:38 ATOI, +7), there's no question he brought some needed size and tenacity to the blueline. He's a pure free agent, but given that he only made $600k this year and is nothing more than a 6th defender at best, I don't think the Hawks would have to break the bank to bring him back. If it does turn out that there's a demand for his services, I say good riddance.
Ideally you can bring him back for about that same price (which is right around the minimum) and keep him as a 6th or 7th defender. Walker did get beat a ton during the playoffs, as the better skaters and teams exposed his utter lack of speed and inability to position himself to offset such. But Walker also worked very hard and is a hulk who uses every bit of his size, meaning he might just offset his downside, especially as he gets more comfortable in the Hawks' system. As a 7th defender, I'd love to have Walker, and I could even live with him as the 6th, if the Hawks would upgrade from Barker. But to keep Walker, Barker, and the Hammer means you're missing one true Top 4 defenseman, and most likely have to pair the lead-skated Walker and Barker together.
A guy I'm really curious about is Johnson (14:08 ATOI, +19), who started the year with 26 straight non-negative plus-minus games, only to get a bit banged up and never return to the regular mix. Not that plus-minus is everything, but a +19 and 26 straight games (the streak actually got all the way up to 31 before being snapped) without a negative seems to suggest a consistently solid blueliner. While in hindsight the decision was correct, it's very telling that even upon Wisniewski being dealt away, Johnson was skipped over by the Hammer.
Another pure free agent who definitely can be had for near the minimum, Johnson at the very least seems like the kind of guy worth keeping around for the same role he played this year - as a 7th defenseman. He just turned 26 at the end of April, so it's possible Johnson will get a bit better and produce as well as his numbers seemed to suggest. For some reason JQ doesn't seem to buy into those numbers, but it's still probably worth keeping him around to see.
Finally there's Sopel (for whom the Committed Indian - the bastard child of the old Blue Line - took to listing "talent" as the broken body part in their game night injury reports). Clearly the ugliest member of the Blackhawks, this year he was also the most worthless, looking impossibly slow and ineffective during 23 painful appearances at the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, in a rear misstep a few seasons ago, Tallon signed Sopel to a deal that promises him $2.33M each of the next two seasons. The NHL allows a team to buy out a contract, but a significant portion will still remain on the cap. The Hawks could try to find a taker, packing Sopel with some attractive young prospects to a team with cap space and a talent shortage, or by exchanging him for someone else's cap problem.
I'm trying to package him for a more expensive stay-at-home defensive option, both getting out from under dead cap space and upgrading somewhere the Hawks have a need. Somewhere out there exist an overpaid veteran blueliners who still is a strong contributors, just signed to bloated deal. Given how tight the cap is, why wouldn't a team give up that blueliner just for a bit of payroll relief?
If that can't happen, I'm not buying him out - one of the downsides is that the cap hit, while smaller, lasts for more years. I don't want to be hamstrung by Sopel for the next four seasons, as it becomes more and more difficult to pay everybody. Instead, I'd take the chance that he really was just hurt this year and can come back and possibly be that stay-at-home defender I'm looking for. If not, farm him out and bite the bullet for the season, then revisit again next year.
I've discussed this before, so I won't go too into detail, but my plan would be to let Khabibulin (2.33 GAA, .919 Sv%) walk and commit to Huet (2.53 GAA, .909 Sv %, $5.625M). Huet's a bit inconsistent, but I think with the right team around him and the right commitment to him, he could lead you to a Cup. He's shown the flashes of brilliance. He'll frustrate us all along the way, but Huet showed me a few things this year and clearly showed Tallon something in the past to earn his contract. I'm hitching my wagon to him.
Behind Huet, I like the idea of having Niemi and Crawford duke it out. Both looked solid down at Rockford this year, and both have been talked about as capable NHL goaltenders. Niemi might not want to stick around this hemisphere next year, as there are rumors he'd prefer to return to his native Finland. However, if he does stick around, the Hawks are in good shape - one of those two guys should emerge as a viable back-up, and maybe even the one to take over for Huet in 2011-12. And as we saw with Khabi this year - you need goaltender depth. Knowing that we'd still have two solid goaltenders on the roster if Huet or the back-up went down is a pretty comforting thought.
In brief summation, I'm resigning Havlat if his demands are reasonable, and then considering moving Buff and Barker, re-signing Pahlsson, looking for a veteran stay-at-home blueliner, ideally in place of Sopel. And if I can't re-sign Havlat, I'm probably not moving Buff or Barker yet, cause I should have the money to keep them both as well as to bring back Pahlsson and get my defensive defenseman.
Should be a fun couple of weeks - let's see what Tallon, McDonough, and the Bowmans have up their sleeves.
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