Predicting 2009-2010 (Part I)

Part I - Overview

I'm gonna start by saying that I think it's ludicrous to predict the playoffs before the season, in any sport. The playoffs are a second season themselves and based FAR more on what happens during the season than what you expected coming into it. Predicting the 2010 NHL playoffs right now makes about as much sense to me as predicting the 2010-2011 season.

So all you're gonna find from me here is a prediction of what I expect out of the Hawks between Friday's puck drop in Finland (11 AM start) and their final game in April, on NBC against the hated Wings.

Speaking of NBC, while the national networks had no foresight last year (was it not clear that the young Hawks team would be a national sell?), this season the Hawks will be on nationally quite a bit. I count 9 Versus games (including the Friday opener) and an impressive four NBC games. The Hawks are finally getting the national exposure that such a gifted young squad deserves.


Now to what I expect to see out of the Hawks during the next six months. First, I think they'll be pretty hungry out of the gate. Last year they were hungry, but also uncertain. They hadn't even made it to the playoffs yet and only a couple of guys had even played a meaningful role on any playoff teams at any time in their career.

Not so this year, as the team is coming off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals that included series victories over legit teams in Calgary and Vancouver (I saw one national writer predict the Canucks would win the West this year). All their additions - Hossa, Kopecky, Madden - are ring wearing vets who've been through the fire. On top of that, an off-season of overblown turmoil should have the team committed to re-focusing the media attention back onto the ice.

But don't discount that as a team of young, unproven, but highly talented individuals, the Hawks have a number of players looking to establish their place on their national teams. All pre-season everyone has been talking about how great Buff has looked. Buff has always shown flashes of great things, but as I've consistently made clear here, the guy loses interest all the time. When that happens, he becomes worthless on the ice.

So the question is always which Buff are we going to get? After last regular season, when we saw him take a step back, for a stretch of games in the playoffs Buff was outstanding. But what was lost is that before the playoffs ended, he had gone back to his disappearing act. Now what?

I see this pre-season hunger carrying over into the regular season as Buff tries to earn himself a place on Team USA for the Vancouver Olympics in February. Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Toews, Kane - all of these guys also have a shot at making their squads and will want to prove they deserve it.

What kind of effect will this have on the team? For Buff I think it will make him the player we always hoped he'd be, at least until the Olympics. The hope is that he does take off, does play well in the Olympics, and having tasted success, is finally focused and motivated to continue it. What about the rest of the guys - will they focus too much on individual accomplishments? Will on-ice selfishness turn to off-ice issues?

I think the defenders will actually be helped by this pursuit. Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell know that their place on Team Canada will be based on their defensive work. In Campbell's case, that's because his offensive contribution is already proven, so if he can be a solid two-way guy, he'll have a shot.

There are talks of Keith and Seabrook being the #1 unit for Team Canada - a pretty lofty perch, but given the way they play together, they just might be the best combo in the world. That sounds strange, but if you're the best pairing from the most talented country, you're the best there is. To prove this is the case, Keith and Seabrook won't need to inflate personal numbers but instead do what they always do - shut down the other team's top line while sparking their forwards.

I think the more realistic concern is with Toews and Kane, and probably moreso with Kane. Toews could, as he did to start last year, put too much pressure on himself and struggle out of the gate. But I think he's too committed to the Hawks to let the Olympics take away from his game, especially having seen what not having his head in the right place will do. Instead I've got faith Toews will come out of the gate playing as well as he did to end last year.

Kane, on the other hand, could be an issue. He is similar to Buff in that his focus and commitment seems to lag here and there. He's so talented he's able to make a play or two every game anyway, but there's a real difference with Kane when he's working hard every shift and when he's just floating around the ice. All the rumors about him have suggested that while Toews is 21 going on 40, Kane is 20 going on 15.

So the draw of the Olympics could play on Kane's immaturity and have him thinking a bit too much about himself. Not only would that hurt his and the team's play, but it could upset the lockerroom. On the flipside, it's possible Kane uses the Olympics like Buff does, as a reason to be busting hump on every single shift of every game. His talent is immeasurable, so if Kane were to put it all out there every night, we could see him elevate from star to superstar.


In all, I see the Hawks dealing with the standard ups and downs that every team does, but I think there will be far more ups than downs and that the Hawks might just be able to overtake the Wings for the division. The Wings have lost some significant talent and have to be worn down by two straight brutal runs to the Cup Finals. Their goalie situation remains a concern (how much longer can Osgood remain top form?) and a lack of regular season focus has to be an issue for a team clearly playing for the big prize.

Not that the Wings will be a push over - they still are absurdly talented and play a great system of hockey. I think the Hawks might be able to catch or even surpass them in talent, but I don't see them ever equaling the Wings in the way they excel within their system. I see this year as a bit of a dog fight, with the Hawks at least having a shot to use Hossa's return to full speed and the continuing development of their immense young talent to catch the Wings down the stretch.

I don't see any early or mid-season injuries or struggles bothering the Hawks, as they'll have the talent to remain near the top of a Western Conference that isn't terribly deep. The only goal I have is for the Hawks to be fully healthy and clicking come the last month or so.

Winning the division and/or getting one of the top seeds in the West would be nice, but the Hawks are more than capable of post-season success as a bad seed. At the end of the day only a return trip to the Western Conference Finals will save this season from being a disappointment. Remember as Huet struggles or injuries mount or skaters disappoint that the Penguins looked to have taken a major step backward last year before they fired their coach, rediscovered themselves, and then blitzed straight to the Cup.

As long as the Hawks aren't showing any glaring issues or lose anyone to an injury that will cost them the playoffs, I've got faith that I'll be writing a very positive playoff prediction come April. I think both the Burish and Hossa injuries will allow the team to develop both scoring and grinder depth, so that upon their returns the Hawks will have a number of guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. And that's what's necessary to winning it all.

Final note - the biggest concern come the playoffs, if the team is healthy and playing like it should, will be Huet. Even if he has a Vezina regular season, he's fairly unproven come the post-season. But the same works in reverse - the regular season won't tell me a ton about Huet's ability to carry them. If he struggles now it won't bother me too much - he just needs to play like the guy who stood on his head in a must-win game against the Wings last May. Unfortunately, we won't know whether he can do that consistently in the Cup Playoffs until the Cup Playoffs.

So don't fret too much about Huet now - we'll have plenty of time for that this Spring. Instead, keep an eye on the health and effectiveness of the rest of the squad, none of whom are yet at a reliable place in their careers where you know what to expect.


Part II - Forwards, Part III - Defensemen


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