Predicting 2009-2010 (Part II)

Part II - Forwards

Here last week I touched on what I think will be effecting the team's play throughout the regular season. I should also add I think the trip to Europe will be a real plus, bringing an already tight young squad closer together. For a proven veteran team, such a long trip could be exhausting and distracting, but for a team still trying to establish itself, I think this sleep-away camp experience will be tremendous.


Now, to the forwards. Tomorrow - the defenders and goalies. The skaters are organized more or less in the lines/pairings I'd run out there:

Toews #19
Pos: C
Age: 21
08-09: 34 G, 35 A, +12 in 82 games

As I said last week, I don't see the Olympics effecting his focus, nor do I see him putting too much pressure on himself, as he did to start last year. It's crazy to realize that his 34 goals all came after he failed to score in the first 11 games. This year I can see him breaking both the 40 G and 40 A mark while continuing to develop into an intangible force - a physical presence who does the dirty work and effects the game on both ends. Even if his stats don't go up - what matters is that he continues to develop into that all-around player who matters every second he's on the ice.

As Captain and all-around good guy, expect Toews to get his contract locked up pretty quickly. Keith and Kane might take a little longer, but in the end I'm sure the Hawks will lock up all three. These players mean too much not to, and I bet they all are willing to sign to continue to be part of the special thing that's going on here.

Kane #88
Pos: W
Age 20
08-09: 25 G, 45 A, -5 in 80 games

Kane's numbers didn't change a whole lot from his Rookie of the Year campaign, which is a bit frustrating and a bit encouraging. You'd expect either a natural step forward or even a sophomore slump as he adjusts, but Kane really didn't have either. Despite the calls of immaturity and a lack of commitment, Kane deserves a boatload of credit that he's never gotten. That's for coming back so quickly from that high ankle sprain (something that doesn't heal for months) and fighting through it the entire season and playoffs.

Hopefully the off-season was enough to finally heal the ankle and we'll see the Kane who looked like he was taking the next step in the first half of last year. I have faith that's the case, especially after the way he's played in the first two games. Coming back so quickly from that injury showed me Kane really cares about the game of hockey and the Hawks. While his goofy attitude off ice might hide that, I think Kane is gonna be a winner for years to come. He's talented and he showed in the playoffs that he can step up when it really matters. Yes, he'll still take shifts off and get lost in a lot of games, and yes he still has a ton of growing up to do, but Kane will get there.

With the team being so good and so many players being counted on, I see Kane settling into what he does best and taking that expected step forward. 30 goals, 60 assists, and finally a plus rating for the season (something he's never had). And I think he'll do great in the Olympics, where the bigger ice and less physical play will allow him to really shine for Team USA.

Sharp #10
Pos: W
Age 27
08-09: 26 G, 18 A, +6 in 61 games

Sharp's name has come up a lot as a guy who's on the block, someone who probably will be a cap casualty once the Big Three (Toews, Kane, and Keith) sign their longterm deals. Given that all three of those guys are too young to work any longterm deal shenanigans, it is a legit concern. However, I think the Hawks would be unwise to part with Sharp, who's the closest thing they have to a steadying veteran force on and off the ice.

The guy is only 27 and just like the rest of the Hawks, really only has been a significant factor on a team while skating in the Indian Head sweater. But Sharp is clearly someone the kids respect both for his leadership and his play.

He's also an impressive combination of sniper and defensive factor. He followed up his 36 goal campaign two years ago with 26 in only 61 games last year. And that includes a number of games when he returned but was clearly hobbled. His play in the post-season last year really impressed me - not only that Sharp was a contributor, but that he fought through the injuries and admirably filled whatever role JQ asked him to.

Sharp played anywhere from the 1st line to the 4th. He centered and he took a wing. He focused on defense, offense, working in the corners, killing penalties, skating on power plays. I know it won't be easy to keep everybody, but Sharp is the type of player I don't want to lose. He's the rare combination of star-type talent and workmanlike attitude. You need that if you want to take the big prize, and thus I want to see this guy kept around.

As for this season, I see not much changing from the previous years. He'll get his 30 goals, he'll be over 20 assists, and he'll do it all with a really solid plus-minus. Though JQ moves his lineup around a lot, I can see Sharp being pushed back to the third line so that Hossa can skate with Toews and Kane upon his return. But that's no knock on Sharp - he'll provide the two-way skill and scoring threat that a top third line will need, making the Hawks dangerous no matter whose shift it is.

Hossa #81
Pos: W
Age: 30
08-09: 40 G, 31 A, +27 in 74 games with Detroit

While we won't be seeing Hossa for a few months, once he does get onto the ice we're gonna be impressed. Campbell got the big money last year because he was a good player who filled a hard-to-find role. Hossa isn't like that - he got the big money because he's one of the best players in the NHL. Period.

He's good for 35-45 goals and 35-50 assists in any given year. In seven year stretch starting in 99-00, he never failed to play 78 games (and played over 72 each of the past two years). He's only been a minus once in his whole career. Four times he's made it to the second round or further in the playoffs and during those runs has 27 G and 40 A in 72 games. And at 6-1, 210 and about 50 PIM a year, he's a physical presence.

While the loss of Havlat without the immediate replacement of Hossa will challenge the Hawks, I think they're up to it. As I mentioned, I think it will allow some of the other guys to step up and be more of a factor. But it also will allow Hossa to rest and keep his legs, something a guy who's made back-to-back trips to the Cup Finals needs. I expect he'll be full speed sometime in the second half, giving him the legs he needs down the stretch and through the playoffs.

Bolland #36
Pos: C
Age: 23
08-09: 19 G, 28 A, +19 in 81 games

I gotta admit that I saw Bolland as a bit of a waste two years ago. He was centering the 2nd or 3rd line, but didn't seem to do much. There wasn't much talk about him and I didn't see where he fit. I also didn't realize how young he was, but still, there just wasn't much for excitement to him.

I wasn't wrong that Bolland isn't exciting, but I was dead wrong that he didn't fit. Much like Sharp, he's exactly the kind of player you need to win. Bolland works hard on both ends of the ice, killing penalties and creating offense with equal skill. He'll never be a star, but he should be a solid #2 or #3 center his whole career, playing on winners all along.

At 23, Bolland still has some work to do. His face-off percentage needs to be up near 52%, especially if he's gonna be a key penalty killer. And with the type of talent he'll be skating with, his assists need to get up near the 40 mark. But if he can be a 20 goal, 30-40 assist guy who wins more face-offs than he loses while effecting the game on both ends, he'll be damn valuable.

I was pumped to see the Hawks commit to this kid longterm and look forward to seeing him anchoring our second and third lines for a while. I predict him reaching that 20-goal, 30 assist range, and if JQ keeps him skating with scorers and playmakers all year, he could top 40 assists.

Versteeg #32
Pos: W
Age 23
08-09: 22 G, 31 A, +15 in 78 games

I freakin love this guy. He was so unheralded coming into the year, but that allowed him to go all Mark DeRosa or Aaron Rowand on us and become loved because of it. "The Steeg" deserves it too, as his production and all-around play were damn impressive for anybody, let alone an unknown rookie.

Versteeg has the rare gift of playmaking, probably the most valuable skill in all of hockey. While goals get all the hype, it's the ability to create the plays that lead to the goals that truly is valuable. And Versteeg can do that in spades. Nearly every game he does something that impresses me.

But what really excites me about this guy is that JQ hasn't used him correctly yet. Versteeg never got to mesh with a line because he was up and down the lineup more than any other skater. Often times that meant he was mismatched with players incapable of taking advantage of the opportunities he'd create.

This year, I'm hoping JQ realizes what he has and keeps Versteeg skating with some real offensive skill players. Guys who can score off of his plays and can create a bit themselves to set him up. It's true that Versteeg can grind and play good defense, but that doesn't mean he should be handicapped with unskilled linemates (I'm lookin at you Buff and Brouwer).

The Steeg can easily score 30 goals and help on 40 if JQ utilizes him correctly. Given that he's got his big contract and is a part of this team for a while (hopefully), it's time to get everything you can out of him.

Ladd #15
Pos: W
Age: 23
08-09: 15 G, 34 A, +26 in 82 games

A former first round pick, Ladd really broke out last season, but in a way no one expected. A pretty big guy, Ladd seemed like he'd be a garbage cleaner in front of the net who if he did make it big, would be scoring a bunch of ugly goals. But Ladd's 15 G total, while solid, was his least impressive accomplishment last year.

Instead, Ladd emerged as a guy who could help make plays (only Havlat and Kane had more helpers from a forward spot) and play solid defense. I think his defensive skill was mildly over-rated, given that JQ never skated him on the penalty kill. But in a five-on-five situation, he was definitely a plus defender and helped make last year's checking line one of the best in the NHL.

While Versteeg is no Havlat (yet), I think that JQ can get about the same defensive-lock down ability and scoring pop out of a Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg line, given the advancement of all three young players and the increased effort Versteeg provides over Marty. And given that they're all 23, all signed for a few years, and provide the perfect compliment to one another, I think this is a line that should skate together for years.

In such a line, it's possible Ladd could step up to the 20-goal plateau or beyond as he continues to mature. Although I really see him more likely to settle in at 15, while anything near his 30+ assist total of last year would be great.

Madden #11
Pos: C
Age: 36
08-09: 7 G, 16 A, -7 in 76 games with New Jersey

Brought in to replace the defense-only role of Pahlsson, Madden might be an even better fit. Pahlsson was a bit younger and more skilled in the face-off circle, but Madden is more of a leader and has a better scoring touch. On top of that, Madden is pretty motivated coming of his worst statistical year and knowing this could be his last chance to again hoist the Cup (something he's done with the Devils twice).

Madden should win more face-offs than he loses, should skate against the other team's top line every night, and should be able to score around 15 goals and get 20 helpers. That's pretty much what he's done his whole career. And when Hossa returns, he may even drop down to join the energetic youngsters in one of the top scoring and energy fourth lines in the league.

The only question is does he still have anything left in the tank? After scoring 20 goals and dropping 23 assists two years ago (the best season of his career), last year Madden fell off a bit. Will the new environment re-energize him? Even if not, Madden will still be a plus-center to have on that fourth line and a great guy come playoff time.

Kopecky #82
Pos: C/W
Age: 27
08-09: 6 G, 13 A, -7 in 79 games with Detroit

A quiet workman contributor coming off only his second full season, Kopecky has impressed his fellow Hawks by showing more skill than expected. A decently big guy at 6-3, 205 who plays with toughness, Kopecky has never filled up the scoresheet. But it's possible he's got more to offer than what has been required of him so far in Detroit.

Playing on the third line with some other offensively gifted types, Kopecky might just become a 15-goal, 25 assist guy. But even if he remains an offensive liability, the Czech will be valuable for the grit and intangibles he brings with him from Detroit. His ability to play center or on a wing gives JQ some line flexibility, especially once Hossa comes back. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kopecky centering a tough and highly capable checking line with Buff and Sharp in the second half.

Byfuglien #33
Pos: W
Age: 24
08-09: 15 G, 16 A, +7 in 77 games

As I mentioned yesterday, Buff has really impressed in training camp and might just have found his focus in time to earn a spot on Team USA. Whatever is driving Buff, let's hope it's a permanent thing. His skills are impossible to ignore, even if they aren't the prettiest thing on the ice. He's clearly a physical presence, he's got a decent scoring touch, and at only 24 and in just his third year as a winger, Buff may have a boatload of upside left.

Paired with a playmaker or two and dialed in every night, Buff can easily top 20 goals and maybe even push 30. He'll never be much more than a 20 or so assist guy, but if he can work hard down low and make other teams respect his presence on every shift, Buff could be an invaluable tool.

If that happens, the Hawks have a big decision to make, as Buff is part of that group of second tier guys, some of whom won't be able to stick around when the Big 3 get their money. Personally I'll never be sold on Buff and will always be waiting for his motivation to lag. My hope is that he has a great year, helps carry the Hawks to the Cup, and then is let go before he decides he's not that into working hard after all.

Fraser #46
Pos: C
Age: 24
08-09: 6 G, 21 A, +3 in 81 games

The forgotten man, it's possible Fraser might have found his role in the playoffs last season - the regular healthy scratch. He's still young and showed some great energy and decent skill, but to be a viable 4th or even 3rd liner, he's got to up his game physically and in the face-off circle. He was very solid defensively, skating on the penalty kill and doing well on the 4th line.

But to get regular shifts, he's got to be a force defensively, interrupting the other team's flow every second on the ice. And Fraser absolutely must be a plus face-off man. In fact, to really guarantee himself a spot, he's got to get over 52% - to the level where he's specifically getting sent out to win key face-offs in the defensive end.

With Burish and Hossa out, Fraser should get some ice time. He's got to take advantage and show himself a good role player if he wants to be a factor for the Hawks down the road.

Eager #55
Pos: W
Age: 25
08-09: 11 G, 4 A, +1 in 75 games

Eager isn't exactly the smartest guy on the ice and still lets his high-energy style get the best of him sometimes, but I think this kid has a hell of a lot to offer the Hawks. He's showed a decent scoring touch (11 G out of a 4th liner is impressive) and certainly brings the toughness, energy, and grit you want out of your 4th line.

But I also have been impressed with his speed and offensive skills, as at least once a game he makes a play that you wouldn't expect out of a 4th line bruiser. The speed and skill that Burish and Eager brought to the 4th line last season, while not sacrificing any toughness, is what made it the best such line in the NHL.

I'm hoping that if JQ does bump one of these possible 4th liners up to the scoring lines, its Eager. I really think that with a bit of confidence and experience, he could be a great addition to a top line. He's got the skills and speed to not hold back the playmakers, and his energy and size make him a real asset.

But even if he just remains down on the 4th line, Eager will be a great role player for this team, scoring about 10 goals, getting in a boatload of fights protecting his skilled teammates, and sparking the team when needed.

Brouwer #22
Pos: W
Age 24
08-09: 10 G, 16 A, +7 in 69 games

I've made no mistake about my lack of appreciation of Brouwer. I just have yet to see what he brings to the table. From what I've seen, he's not even close to skilled enough to be a scorer or playmaker, but he also doesn't have enough of a motor or understanding of the game to be an intangibles type. He's not a great defender, he's not a physical bruiser, he's not a gritty cornerman.

I guess he does a little bit of all of that stuff OK and was still a rookie last year, but I will never understand JQ's love affair with this guy. He's totally miscast as a compliment to the top line guys, yet JQ continues to pretend Brouwer can fill that role. The fact that while skating with the studs he did all of last year he could only net 10 and assist on 16 is atrocious.

I'd pretty much rather see any skater on the Hawks, except maybe Fraser, get scoring line time than this guy. Put Brouwer on the 4th line and let him prove he can provide those intangibles that he supposedly brings to the scoring lines. Intangibles aren't automatic - you've got to learn how to contribute in that fashion. On the 4th line, Brouwer will have the opportunity to do so, and might just develop into the player JQ pretends he is. But for now, be happy with him as a solid 4th liner capable of double-digit goals and solid enough all-around play.

Smolenak #52
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 0 G, 1 A, +1 in 6 games with Tampa Bay

A last-second addition to the opening day roster, Smolenak is a bit of a mystery to me. He's only 22 so he's still got plenty of time to prove himself and the Hawks clearly think he's got the chance, as they grabbed him off waivers and gave him a shot with the big league team.

It's possible, in fact probably likely, that Smolenak will only stick for as long as the Hawks need to keep Skille buried in the AHL to avoid a cap penalty. Supposedly that was the biggest factor in deciding to farm out their former first round pick rather than give him his shot with the big league team.

But I'm curious to see what Smolenak can do. He started out right by netting a pair of goals in his first exhibition game, so maybe he'll pull the often-seen ride the wave of a new setting to an uncharacteristic scoring binge thing. If he provides a bit of a spark on a third or fourth line to start the year and then fades into Bolivia, then so be it. And if he just keeps a seat warm for Skille before turning into another possible prospect in Rockford, that's fine too.

Skille #20
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 0 A, -3 in 8 games

First off, it's pronounced "Skill-ee" at least according to Pat Foley. A first round draft pick, Skille looked decent enough in 16 games two years ago but took a step back last year when injuries and iffy play moved Troy Brouwer in front of him on the organizational depth chart. As I've made clear here many a time, I think Brouwer sucks, so I'm hoping Skille can pass him back up.

If I'm JQ, I'm taking my lips of Brouwer's undeserving butt and sticking him squarely on a 4th line, where he might just develop into a productive role player. And I'm allowing Skille, when he eventually comes up - seems like that's the Hawks' plan - to skate on one of the top three lines. Skille is not a grinder - he's got great wheels and a bit of a scoring touch, having scored 16 and 20 goals in about 60 games in the AHL each of the past two seasons.

Put this kid in a position to succeed and see if you've got a real player here. The Hawks have no shortage of grinders and Brouwer has been given his chance - and failed miserably - to show he can profit from playing on a scoring line. So let's see what Skille can do with a playmaker like Versteeg, Kane, Toews, or Bolland on his line. Don't bring the kid up and bury him with Frasier on the 4th line, where offense doesn't exist. What will we learn about him from that? With Hossa out you've got a spot on the Top 3 lines, so let Skille have it (once the cap issues sort themselves out) and start to discover what we really have here.

Burish #37
Pos: C/W
Age: 26
08-09: 6 G, 3 A, +3 in 66 games

Unfortunately, we won't see much of Burish this regular season. His loss will definitely be felt on the 4th line, where he brought energy, toughness, and a spark that is always needed. He was the team's top pest, getting to the mentally soft on a nightly basis.

The good news is that we know what Burish is and his game won't take long to return. Hopefully he'll get better in time to get his legs under him and be fully ready to go come the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Like Eager, his speed and skill are rare finds in such tough and energetic 4th liners. I'm really excited to see a 4th line of the veteran Madden winged by Eager and Burish providing the Hawks with another legit group to roll over every night.


Part III - Defensemen


-