Commit 2 The Indian: If I Were Dale Tallon (Part I)

The off-season is officially upon us, though the actual moving and shaking of the NHL's draft, free agency, and trade period has yet to get going. Figured I'd take advantage of this window to lay out what I'd do if I were steering the Hawks right now:

FORWARDS

Toews (34 G, 35 A in 08-09, set to earn $2.8M in 09-10), Kane (25 G, 45 A $3.725M), Sharp (26 G, 18 A, $3.9M), Ladd (15 G, 34 A, $1.55M), and Burish (6 G, 3 A, $712k) are all locked in for next year.

Versteeg (22 G, 31 A) and Bolland (19 G, 28 A) are restricted free agents without any arbitration rights, which means the Hawks can easily re-up with them at something reasonable (neither made even $1m this year).

Eager (11 G, 4 A) is restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but the Hawks shouldn't have much problem keeping him in the fold for fairly cheap (he was another guy who made under $1M this season).

Anything can happen in the off-season, especially in hockey where roster turnover is so commonplace. But my expectation is that the above eight players will certainly be back among the 12 forwards the Hawks are counting on every night. Toews, Kane, and Sharp are cornerstone players, while Ladd, Versteeg, and Bolland are all emerging young stars in their own right. Burish and Eager are very valuable as the rare energy/enforcer types who actually have speed and skill.

So who will be the other four or five forwards in the mix for playing time each night?

Byfuglien (15 G, 16 A, $3M) showed some real flashes of great things in the playoffs. But he also disappeared for long stretches. That's just who Buff is. In fact, look at his point output in the post-season and you get Buff. First four games - 0 points. Next two games - 4 points. Next four games - 0 points. Next three games - 4 points. Final four games - 1 point.

Points aren't everything, especially for a player like Buff, but that come-and-go scoring pattern really also describes his overall impact on the game - sometimes you can't help but notice him, other times you forget he's on the squad.

All the same, Buff could still grow into a consistent and impactful contributor, especially during the rough-and-tumble post-season play. And with $3M contracts each of the next two years, Buff might not be the easiest guy to get rid of in a world where the salary cap is down from last year.

Personally, I'm trying to get out from under that deal. Buff might eventually be a real good power forward, even a solid two-way player (remember, he came up as a defenseman), but the Hawks have to make some tough choices, and to me the potential of Buff isn't worth risking the given production of one of the many other players the Hawks are trying to keep in the fold.

Having just turned 24, with 19 and 15 goals the past two seasons, and the upside he showed in the playoffs, I think Buff can be moved fairly easily, possibly even bringing back a piece that fits the Hawks even better. And that's what I'd do - find Buff a new home, preferably in the East where even if he does develop, he won't hurt you. I like his potential, but I'm sick of waiting around for it. Buff has just not shown the mental toughness, focus, and concentration I need to be able to continue to commit $3M a year.

Frasier (6 G, 11 A), like Eager, is a restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but still should easy enough to sign for cheap. The question is does he still fit in the Hawks mix? Before the post-season I would have said absolutely, as he was a solid rookie who did a capable job centering the fourth line and killing penalties. But in the playoffs he was left out of the starting lineup for all but two games (when Kane and Havlat were injured), suggesting that Frasier isn't thought of as that important of a piece to the Hawks puzzle.

My guess is that the Hawks keep him around and see if he takes another step forward this season, especially in the face-off circle. As a 4th line and penalty killing center, Frasier needs to be able to win 52% of his draws, at least. Hopefully he learned from Pahlsson and is ready to develop into that type of centerman. Cause he's so cheap and has both upside and experience, I'd at least keep him around as the 13th skater, and give him a shot to win that 4th centerman spot.

Brouwer (10 G, 16 A) will turn 24 in August, so he isn't a total kid, but he's also plenty young to expect further improvement. I wasn't much a fan of his during the regular season, as he didn't seem to be great defensively, nor a high energy guy, nor a commanding presence physically, and he certainly wasn't very skilled. But Brouwer finally seem to figure out his role as a grinder in the playoffs, and might have a bit of a future there. He's a non-arbitration restricted free agent, so he'll come back cheap.

Again, like Frasier, the cost, upside, and experience convince me to bring him back, but also like Frasier, I need to see more out of Brouwer if he's going to continue with the Hawks. Skating with the top play makers on the team and netting only 10 goals and 16 assists won't cut it. I don't need him to be an offensive force, but I do need to see more garbage goals and having a hand in creating more scores for others. But most important, I need to see more energy, enthusiasm, and physical impact on the game. Brouwer needs to learn from Burish and Eager, who make their presence felt on every single shift.

Pahlsson (7 G, 11 A) is a free agent, but given that he made only $1.4M last season and isn't getting any younger (he'll turn 32 in December), there's no reason to think the Hawks can't get him for right around that same price again. The fact is that Pahlsson is an offensive black hole, only once notching more than 8 goals or 14 assists, despite regularly playing 80 games a year. Not too many teams can afford that on a Top 3 line.

Thanks to their ridiculous collection of young and improving offensive options, the Hawks absolutely can overcome Pahlsson's lack of scoring production. More importantly, the Hawks need his defensive skills and face-off work, both of which are some of the best in all of the NHL. After the success they had this year, the Hawks need to build their team for the playoffs, and that's where Pahlsson is most valuable. No question they should re-up with Sammy and slot him into their third line center spot. Coming back healthy (he was recovering from mono and had some injuries the entire time he was with the Hawks this year) and having an full off-season to get fit into the Hawks' system, Pahlsson should be a real asset next year - I think the Hawks would be fools to let him go.

I wish I was able to include him on the sure-fire to be back list above, but for whatever reason the Hawks and Havlat (29 G, 48 A) couldn't get on the same page for an extension during the season. Now the window to get Marty signed before he hits the open market is fast closing, so you wonder if it's ever gonna happen. For all of the injury issues and occasional inconsistency, Havlat is a rare talent who would be very hard to replace. He made $6M last year and only just turned 28 in April. If he can stay healthy, Havlat's proven that he can be a top flight NHL player.

So how much is he worth to the Hawks, a team who has to keep a very sharp eye on next year, when Kane, Toews, and Keith are all up (not to mention the escalating demands of the rest of their young crew)? I can't say I know the hockey financial system well enough to say. But with the salary cap coming down and Havlat's injury history, the hope is that the market for his services isn't great and the Hawks can bring him back into the fold. Havlat seems to like being part of this young club and has to appreciate that it's probably his best chance to win a Cup. Hopefully his salary demands are reasonable and we see him in the Indian Head sweater next year.

What the Hawks do with Havlat will dictate everything else. If they bring him back, it'll be tough to keep everyone else around and also upgrade anywhere else. If he goes, the Hawks have to decide if they try to use that money for some sort of scoring forward replacement, or instead reshuffle their finances to upgrade on the blueline or shore up the goaltending.