Friday, December 11, 2009

Knowing the Numbers - Team Stats

With 29 games down (just over 1/3 of the schedule), it's not a bad time to take a look at some of the key team stats and see how the Hawks stack up so far.


On pace for about 116 points, the Hawks actually are the top team in the West. However, with 16 home dates in the books to only 13 roadies, that's probably skewed a little high. Still, given all the injuries, the domination at home (12-3-1), and that stellar West Coast swing's effect on the road record (7-4-2), I'd say the Hawks have shown what we all hoped they would - that they're one of the premier teams in the West and a legit Cup contender.


Averaging three goals per game, the Hawks are a Top 10 offense. Given all their firepower, you'd think they'd be a bit higher, especially because their PP% is in the Top 10. One factor keeping them from the truly elite ranks - they've had the 2nd fewest power play opportunities in the entire league. Now that is very odd given how they control the puck and are so offensively dangerous.

Does that mean the refs have something out for the Hawks? I'm never a fan of those kind of theories, as what possible reason could they have for such? If your team has a reputation as being physical, or if you've got a bunch of veteran stars, or are unproven kids, then maybe the refs will be swayed for or against you. But the Hawks are an established team without any negative attitude or style of play - they shouldn't register with the refs one way or the other. Plus, the Hawks are the 4th least penalized team in the league - that kinda eliminates any thought of bias right there.

More likely the lack of penalty chances is a trend that will to some extent reverse itself over time, but also is probably suggestive that the Hawks need to be a bit more aggressive and a bit tougher in their attack. But that does make sense, as the team has essentially been without a top winger and a top centerman nearly the whole year, given the time Hossa, Toews, and Bolland have collectively missed.

Once Hossa is up to full speed and Bolland is returned to form, offense shouldn't be much of a worry. Even as it is now, the Hawks are third in the league in shots per game. As the Hawks return to full strength, they'll have even more shots, draw more penalties, and convert more goals. There's as much offensive talent on this club as probably at any time in history and I think they'll get plenty of goals out of it when all is said and done.


At 2.24 goals against per game, the Hawks are a Top 3 defense. That number is probably the one I'd pay the most attention to, Hawks fans. First off, in hockey, like everywhere else, defense wins championships. Things close down a ton during the playoffs, so being able to keep the puck out of your own net is the key to advancement.

This number is also telling in that a lot of fans had some goalie jitters entering this season, after the previously beleaguered Khabi signed with Edmonton (where he's been nothing special and now is having a very slow time recovering from a back injury - as I've said before, good riddance!). When Huet struggled badly out of the gate, everyone and their sister was all set to put the guy on the first flight back to Charles De Gaulle.

But as I tried to tell you, Huet has always been a strong regular season goalie. He's got a long resume of Top 5 or 10 finishes in GAA and Sv %, including a season in which he lead the league in GAA. So until we hit the playoffs (where Huet hasn't been bad, just has never really been on a team to do much), feel good about this man. And feel good about his back-up, Niemi, who might just be the goalie of the future he was heralded as. And maybe most importantly, feel good about the guys playing in front of them.

This both means the blueliners and the forwards. Because no group in the entire NHL is doing a better job keeping pucks off their goaltenders than the Hawks. In fact, Hawks' goalies see 2.5 fewer shots per game than the 2nd best team in the league. And about 5 or 6 fewer shots than the league average. Those are nasty impressive numbers.

They're even more impressive when combined with the way the offense blisters so many shots of their own - in all, the Hawks have by far the largest shot differential in the league. Now that is a stat that will win you a lot of hockey games, in the regular season and playoffs. Throw in a near Top 5 PK unit that, as stated above, has to kill off some of the least amount of penalties in the league, and you can really start feeling good about how the Hawks have played in their own end.


In all, pretty much every single classic team metric backs up what we've all been seeing for ourselves this season - that the Hawks are a very good hockey team in all facets of the game. And after tonight's tilt in Buffalo, the Hawks will go nearly two-for-one in home games to roadies until they leave on a brutal 8-games-in-15 days trip in mid-January. That's a whole lot of home cooking to fatten up on until then, pushing their numbers even further into the realm of a great hockey team. And with the way the Stadium rocks these days, earning home ice advantage throughout the playoffs is a significant achievement we all should be pulling for.

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