Before I start, I've got to send out a big thank you out to Greg Wyshynski of Yahoo's "Puck Daddy" NHL Blog, who linked to my last post, drawing me an astounding 350+ hits last Thursday and Friday (most posts bring in about 20-30).
I've referenced this blog many times before, mainly because it's the only national hockey site I read, and I'll say it again - if you aren't yet a regular reader, you should start. It covers all the key happenings in the NHL, links to every worthwhile NHL blog or article out there, and does it in a concise and easy to follow way. I'm sure Greg and his boys will appreciate my 20 or so followers in amongst their millions.
Well, we all got a good scare and as Face and I discussed in my last post, we all learned a valuable lesson that every NHL series should be expected to be tough. We also were treated to some wicked fun dramatics and to a lot of things we can feel good about going forward. My random but never brief takes:
-I'm just getting over being full from all the crow I ate due to Troy Brouwer (I said he was worthless, he then proved himself a very valuable piece this regular season), when Unfrozen Caveman Blueliner Brent Sopel goes and serves me another plate. Just in time, too, as Brouwer has reverted to the form I so criticized last - being a total non-impact whenever he's on the ice (more on that later).
I've had an up-and-down relationship with Sopel. I loved him two seasons ago, when the Hawks were still green and he provided a stable veteran presence on the Blue Line. Plus, I just liked his game and the way he carried himself.
But last year the Hawks took a huge leap forward with their speed and athleticism, and Sopel seemed to be left behind. He had gotten a step slower and everyone else was two steps faster, and he looked terrible for it. When Sopel got hurt and missed most of last year, no one cared. He was such a detriment on the ice to start the year that it was a good riddance situation
But Sopel came back healthy this year and everyone was talking about how he'd be a nice role player. Everyone ignored that he was still slow as dirt on a team of speedsters, that he handled the puck like a greased pig, and that he made a lot of mental mistakes. Instead, Sopel's hard-nosed play - especially blocking shots - made most commentators ignore all his obvious short-comings.
Not me - I was in the camp that anyone was better than Sopel. I wanted to see Hendry in his place, even before Hendry had shown he was capable. I wanted to deal someone to get us another D-man so Sopel could fill a more fitting role as a healthy scratch. I wanted some young D-man to emerge from the AHL - a la The Hammer last year - and take his minutes.
Instead Johnsson's acquisition replaced Barker, Hendry's emergence wasn't enough to warrant an active spot in the eye's of the coaches, and Buff's move to D was offset by the untimely death of Johnsson (credit to the Committed Indian for that joke - I don't know why, but I find all of their references to KJ being dead extremely funny).
However, with all the thinness on the blue line down the stretch, I had come to at least appreciate Sopel as a capable d-man, something I wasn't sure I could say about Buff or Boynton. I'd prefer we had someone else, but respected that if Sopel had to take some minutes on the Hawks blueline, he at least could hold his own.
But this series, Sopel found the perfect storm. There were a ton of penalties. Johnsson was out and Campbell was severely limited. The Preds had few skaters that exhibited any speed or play-making. Their power play was iffy and based completely around heavy shots from the point.
That meant tons of ice time killing penalties for Sopel against a power play unit that couldn't exploit his lack of speed but would play right into his absolutely uncanny ability to get in front of shots.
The result was that Sopel was more noticeable in this series than maybe ever in his career in the NHL. He blocked insane amounts of shots and was outstanding killing a crucial 5x3 penalty in a crucial game. His good player on the penalty kill only looked better thanks to the Preds scoring only one time all series with a man advantage. And on top of it all, Sopel was never exposed in 5x5 situations because the Preds didn't have the players or offense to make him pay for being slow and uncertain with the puck.
Having said all that, with crow firmly in my mouth, let me just set myself up for another heaping serving. This series, against the many fast, talented playmakers of Vancouver, I expect Sopel to be exposed. Not all the time, but there will definitely be a few goals that are squarely on his head. A turnover, getting skated around, being weak on a clear, unable to get back to cover on a breakaway - something will happen that will allow a Canuck or two to find the back of the net due to Sopel's lack of speed and stick skills.
Still, the guy has is role. He is a very good penalty killer, as his ability to block shots disrupts the opponent's man advantage. With Campbell back and hopefully near full speed, Sopel only needs to skate third pairing minutes even strengthed, which is not a lot after Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and The Hammer take their heavy loads. My hope - Sopel only costs us a goal, maybe two, neither when it really matters. And he makes up for it by being a beast on the penalty kill as we once again make Luongo cry in 6 games.
-One thing that I believe would help Sopel - pair him with Hendry instead of Buff. Buff has done an absolutely incredible job making the transition back to the blueline after years as a forward, an even more impressive move considering he did it in the final weeks of the season with little to no head's up. Buff, another guy I've long hammered, has proved himself immensely valuable to the Hawks this season. No question we couldn't have gotten the ship turned around and reached the playoffs ready for the stiff challenge of the Preds if Buff hadn't played so well on a severely weakened blueline down the stretch.
But just like Sopel, I think Buff got by in this last series because the Preds aren't very good offensively. I think he's going to have trouble playing against legit frontline scorers like the Canucks roll out on their top 2 lines. Sure, like Sopel his minutes will be limited, but we all know this series will be tight, start to finish. Every goal could be the series difference-maker - we just can't afford to take this risk.
Not when I'm not seeing a lot of upside with Buff (have you noticed him to anything special back there?). And not when Hendry has proven himself at least capable on the blue line. Hendry paired well enough with Sopel and, most importantly, has been playing defense professionally for the last 4 years. I believe that incredible experience difference would be a real asset to the Hawks this series.
I doubt JQ will actually make this change - at least not unless the Hawks lose a few games early in the series - but it's one I wish he would. Not to say Hendry is great or that Buff has been terrible, but I just don't see how a guy who hasn't been playing D for the past 4 seasons can make it through a 7-game series against a team capable of winning the Cup.
Of course, all this could be moot if KJ was resurrected. Anyone have a line on his status? Anyone? Frye? Frye?
-Sharp, Kane, Toews, & Hossa - thank you for playing at, above, or at least near what we expected from our top forwards. Sure you need depth and secondary scoring (you'll hear that term a lot in the playoffs), but you also won't get very far if your studs aren't studly. And while that's what we expect, the reality is that in hockey, often times stars disappear for games or even full series. It's quite the accomplishment that all four of these guys stepped up.
Sharp was the biggest stud of the group, relative to what I expected. I knew he was good, I've always championed the way he plays any role, but this Preds series, he proved it all over again. Moving over to center he helped spark a second line of offense and allowed the Hawks to finally start filling the net as they should. Even outside just the scoring, he helped the Hawks put offensive pressure on the Preds, allowing them to up their shots and reduce the Preds' chances. Sharp did great work on both ends and on all three units - his continued top flight play will be crucial to moving on again.
Kane was a beast - while others were struggling to hit open shots, he was creating beauty chances for himself and his linemates. And he embraced it all - after watching him last post-season, in the Olympics, and now this series, I've come to realize that at only 21, just 3 years into the league, Kane expects himself to carry the offensive load every time he takes a shift. Not only does he expect it, he commands it - the Olympics proved it, when on a team with loads of talent against a team with even more talent, Kane was dictating things offensively. His series numbers were good, but I expect more and more from him as the playoffs continue because I know he's thinking the same thing.
Toews and Hossa both showed why they are some of the most valuable players in hockey, effecting the game in every single way you can imagine. Sure, I hammered them, and rightly so, for missing so many open chances. Three goals wasn't nearly enough given how many times they were on the doorstep with a giant open net in front of them. But they also added in 12 assists, were a plus 5 combined, and did amazing work on the penalty kill. Throw in Toews' dominance in the face-off circle and these guys were "this close" to being amazingly awesome. The bounces will go their way soon enough, so if they just keep playing as they have been up and down the ice, on every shift, they will be absolute forces. I fear for our opponents if these two can keep the rest of their play at the same level as they finally start finding the net.
-I've already discussed Sopel's great work, but the guy who really did the job for me was The Hammer. Not only did he share most of Sopel's PK time, but he also was a wrecking crew even strengthed (team best +6 in the series) while loading up on minutes (almost 22 per game, third highest on the team, just a hint behind Seabs). I've long loved HJ and I'm pumped that he just keeps getting better and better. With Campbell getting back to speed, the Hawks are very close to having as good of a Top 4 blueline as there is in hockey.
However, to truly get there, Keith and Seabrook need to get it all figured out. Both did a lot of things well and both took a ton of ice time, but they can most certainly play better. Seabrook isn't making all the mistakes he did during that brutal stretch before his injury, but he's also not the solid presence he was to earn his place on Team Canada. Keith is a freak, plain and simple - no one should be able to log the ice time he does, play the high energy game he does, and yet never let up down the stretch. However, Keith is better than he's shown - he's made a few mistakes here or there and isn't back to perfect synergy with Seabrook yet. But these two can get there, and I believe the heightened demands of the Canucks will bring it out of them.
-I mentioned secondary scoring is a buzz phrase that you'll hear a lot of, but it's semi-deserved. Hockey is definitely a game where every player matters and the fact that the Hawks started to get some contribution from the support guys is huge. I noted in my last post how Versteeg had a pretty nasty Game 3, and in watching him closely (as I always do), I thought he was solid all series. And, like Hossa and Toews, I believe he's got more upside - he created a lot of chances for himself and others, at some point those will turn into goals. Especially as a third liner, if Versteeg is generating scoring, the Hawks will be in a good place.
Bolland was a bit maligned this series, and rightfully so - he couldn't cut it as a #2 center and made mistakes in his own end, where he's supposed to thrive. I'm not sure if JQ will keep him as the #3 center, but he should. Bolland probably is best served on a shut-down, grindy type of line, with a hint of offense (which Versteeg supplies) rather than trying to make a 2nd line go (at least this year - he might still develop into that role next year).
One reason I like Bolland as the #3 center is that it allows Madden to be the #4 center. The key to that - it allows JQ to throw him onto the ice for key defensive zone face-offs. Not only does that give the Hawks two good centerman on the draws (Madden was outstanding in the first series), but it also gives them a great defensive forward to help them clear the zone.
I can't say I noticed the other forwards very much. Kopecky actually served me a decent dish of crow himself, as he not only was key down the stretch but showed this series that he can fill a productive role, something I was convinced of otherwise. Bickell hasn't dominated, but does seem at least capable of a big, grindy support role. Ladd is Ladd - he's been solid enough, but not noteworthy. However, he does find ways to make plays in key situations, so watch for him to grab headlines in a game this series.
Brouwer, as I mentioned above, has become persona non grata with the coaching staff. Weird, as they used to love him when he wasn't doing anything. The move of Bickell to that front line and Brouwer down to the 4th was quite a wake-up call. But JQ's juggling might not be over, so maybe Brouwer will have another chance to re-establish himself as a top line support guy. I wouldn't mind seeing him back with Kane & Toews - as solid as Bickell has been, Brouwer was a force when he was playing well and on their line. The Hawks are at their best when those three are clicking together.
I was bummed to see Frasier and Eager relegated to the Press Box, as they had done so much all year and down the stretch to help the Hawks in little ways. Frasier especially - he's a solid PK guy, which is especially useful in the playoffs. I get the Hawks needed a shake-up, but too bad it came at the cost of these guys' role in the series.
Burish hasn't gotten many minutes but seemignly gave the Hawks a little energy in the second half of the series. Ideally you'd be able to skate Frasier in his place because of that PK ability (something Burish used to be good at, but hasn't had a chance to re-develop since his injury), but I'm not sure Frasier would be comfortable on a wing. Hopefully Burish can be more than a 5-minute a night guy - that's tough to do to the rest of your skaters against a deep team like Vancouver.
In all, the Hawks were able to win this series w/o a ton from their support forwards. That will have to change against the Canucks, who will be too talented and bring too much pressure for only four Hawks forwards to log big minutes and make an impact. Keep an eye out on these support guys - how they go might just determine if the Hawks move on.
-Finally there was Uncle Niemi. Look, he's not gonna be great every game and in fact will give you a couple of stinkers along the way. Not unwinnable performances, but really challenge you types. He's gonna let in some soft goals and not stop some stoppable ones.
But I think he's also gonna win a couple of games for you - I said you could count on a shut-out every series from Niemi and I stick by that. He logged two against the Preds - mark him down for another against the Canucks. If he can give you 4 more solid games, then I think the Hawks win this one.
And I have faith he can give us a shut-out and another 4 or even 5 solid games. He's not bad, just inconsistent. But the team is talented enough and he gets enough done that if the rest of the Hawks play as they should, they can win with Niemi. Will he carry us next round? Nope, but he will give us a chance to win that series. It won't come down to Uncle Niemi, it'll come down to the skaters.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Thursday, April 22, 2010
A Couple Emails
A lot of what goes into my posts is influenced by the five other guys I share Hawks partial season tickets with. Actually it's only influenced by four of them - the Cheerleader is really just around for comic relief, both of his doing and at his expense. And he's named the Cheerleader because he actually was a male cheerleader in college - clearly a major source of said comic relief.
I've also referenced my Brother a few times since I started doing this, as he often has some poignant thoughts that I can run with. My recent diatribe about Cubs fans was inspired by an exchange between Out of Town Bob and Big Sexy 11. Out of Town Bob was so christened because he came down to party with my buddies in law school and decided he could act like a total idiot, because he was from out of town and wouldn't see these people ever again. And he lived up to that promise, leaving behind the legend of Out of Town Bob.
Big Sexy 11 once saved me from getting pounded in an on-ice rec league scuffle when I lost my helmet in a scrum (where I was the clear victor) and yet the refs weren't gonna step in. So when he said to me "Let's come up with a sweet nickname for myself, something like: Big Sexy 11," I was happy to oblige.
Today, I introduce the final member of our six-man group - my buddy Face. Why Face? Because I decided that he, in every way, is the guy from the A-Team. That's a high compliment by the way, as I always loved Face the most on that show.
So Face sent me an insightful email after Game 3's loss and it inspired a response from me that pretty much summed up my thoughts, so I figured I'd just post the two here.
From Face:
My dad asked me if tomorrow's game is a "must win" and if I thought we're being out-coached. Here's my answer, and I'm curious your take on my thoughts:
My Response:
1) Agree that it's not a must-win, like a Game 3 where you're down 2-0 would be. As you said, the home ice, talent, and experience advantage all would allow them to win three straight without it being a miracle.
Like you laid out, I'm mad at myself for being an ignorant fan. Because the Preds didn't have a name, didn't have a story, I didn't respect them. Yes, I knew it was wholly possible the Hawks would get upset, but I pretty much allowed only two possibilities - we played as expected and trounced the Preds 4-0 or 4-1, or we lost the series.
The result of that thinking? I wasn't prepared for the much more realistic scenario that the Hawks would struggle but still win out. Losing Game 1 really threw me. It was fluky, but it still was a loss and gave the Preds all kinds of confidence. I didn't like what that portended. Taking Game 2 made me feel better, but not fully. Getting flat out beat - no bounces, no bad calls, no great tending, just flat out beat - in Game 3 really put me in a bad spot.
But why? As we're both agreeing - the Hawks could lose another and still win this thing. The simple fact is much like you said - in the NHL playoffs, you should NEVER expect anything less than a 6-game series. It may happen, but it's a fluke, the result of hot goaltending, an ideal match-up, a bunch of fortunate bounces, a banged up team, or somehow coming out on top in three or even four tight games.
So these two losses to the Preds were to be expected. Would I have preferred to win Games 1 and 2, pick up another in Nashville, and then have Game 5 be that 2nd expected loss? Sure. But who cares when they happen - in the end, the Hawks were most likely gonna lose two, and now they've done it. Nothing has happened yet that we shouldn't have expected.
I do see the Hawks bouncing back Thursday just as they bounced back in Game 2. Renewed focus, superior talent, better execution and a W to show for it. Back in the UC, with series control on the line, the Hawks finally put the Preds in their place. Game 6 is a dog fight, but the Preds are too beat up and the Hawks prevail.
We've all seen that happen plenty of times - most of the time we're rooting for the underdog (be it in basketball or hockey) and start to believe they actually have a shot, only for the favorite to show exactly why they're the favorite and piss us off (I'm thinking every Kobe-involved Lakers series ever).
This could shake out in any way, but what has happened so far doesn't have to be a harbinger of terrible things for this team. It's just as likely it's the standard challenges that go into every Cup run. Not that I'm 100% convinced it will be, but we're being the type of annoying fans we hate if we're freaking out just because we lost two games in a playoff series to a team that's playing solid hockey.
2) I do agree JQ is getting out-coached. Great call on the 4-2 record over the Preds during the season. This is not a team that should be a surprise or a challenge, yet they've been both. I said when JQ was hired that I didn't like it - he'd been around plenty and never done jack squat (one Conference Finals birth, despite years and years of 90+ point teams in Colorado and St. Louis, back when 90 points meant something).
Recently I heard a stat that said every Cup winning coach at least got to the Finals by year 7 of their career or something (I might have the specifics wrong, but you get the idea). JQ is well past that point in his career w/ a meager two (thanks to last year's run) Conference Finals births. I fear he's one of the coaches who can only take you so far - a Doug Collins, if you will. But who knows - as we agreed above, it's still VERY early in this series. No reason JQ couldn't get it back together (as he did last year) and ride this team farther than most expected (as he did last year).
But for now, I disagree with you that it's the physicality that is the issue. I actually have noticed a lot of the Hawks really going after hits. They've done well enough in front of the nets (i.e. the Preds aren't beating us because we can't clear our own crease) and along the boards. Not that we've dominated along the boards, but we've been the Preds' equals, which is a respectable commentary on their physicality, given that the Preds thrive on board play.
I think it's just poor strategy and attitude. The Hawks have faced teams trying to slow them down all year - why is this team all of the sudden giving them so many issues? Why are they the first team ever to get so many chances on the Hawks? Sure, no Johnsson and Campbell is big, but this big? Shouldn't JQ be more prepared for what everyone in the world expected from our inferior-talented first round opponent?
I also hate the Hawks attitude this series - they got down in Game 1 and Game 3, and immediately went all chicken with their heads cut off, playing in total desperation, despite the games being very winnable (down 2-1 early in the 3rd, down 3-1 midway through the 2nd against an inferior club). They got away from the style that's allowed them to dominate all year - puck possession, cycling, crisp passes, lots of shots. Instead, they just flew around like idiots, as if they were down 2 with a minute left, and played right into the Preds hands.
That's half leadership, half coaching. In both cases, the Hawks have failed. Toews, Keith, Sharp, and Hossa should have set the relaxed but determined and aggressive tone once they got down. Instead, they were a big part of the hectic chaos. I'm especially bothered by Toews and Hossa - both have missed way too many chances, done way too little this series. Hockey players are all streaky - it's only been three games and they have plenty of time to make their mark. But now's the time to do it - I've called those guys out in my mind.
And JQ is very much to blame for the desperation also - not just for failing to keep his guys properly focused, but also thanks to all of his idiotic line swapping. It was his job to get his lines set heading into the playoffs. He needed guys comfortable and familiar with each other, capable of executing the puck possession game even more demanded by the tight confines of playoff hockey.
Instead, after one game, JQ juggled things. Then midway through Game 3, he just threw organization out the window completely - there was no semblance of lines, just guys going on and off like a rat hockey session. Is it any wonder they blew off their system and just flew around like idiots? Is it any wonder they failed to get any sustained pressure?
Look, I dig that the team was going balls out - that's the way they played their best hockey last playoffs. But last year they did it within the confines of their known and familiar lines, and kept to their system. Defenders would pinch, forwards would kill themselves for possession along the boards, but it all was still with an eye on cycling the puck to the playmakers and creating opportunities. This series, it's been just desperate insanity in an effort to throw any piece of crap toward the net.
3) I disagree that Rinne is having a coming out. He's made some nice saves, but nothing more than a good NHL goalie playing well. He has not stood on his head nor made me curse the bad luck of facing a hot goalie. He's been very good, but not amazingly great.
Instead, the Hawks have made him look great by missing the net and blowing chances. They've had poor shot selection, been weak on getting rebounds, and missed about 100 different open nets - either by literally missing (hitting the post, missing totally, or hitting Rinne) or by not getting a shot off, sometimes due to great D by the Preds, but just as often by not pulling the trigger when the should have.
Some blown chances will happen, but the Hawks have created and then blown WAY too many incredible scoring chances. If they had buried as many of those as you'd expect out of a club this talented, we'd be up 3-0 and the Preds and Rinne would be what they should be - an after-thought.
4) Had to add this - Versteeg played amazingly last night. He did miss a few chances, but he created tons, both for himself and for others. If the guys around him had been playing even decently, the Hawks would have netted a few. Versteeg will make his mistakes, but if he can keep playing like that, it could change a game or two. I'd love to see it - for some reason, more than anyone else (except maybe Kane), I want to see Versteeg succeed.
Well, lesson learned. It's been a generation since we rooted for a heavily-favored Hawks team in the playoffs, we can be forgiven for forgetting what are reasonable expectations entering a series. The Preds have gotten the two wins we expected of them. Only now are we at the point where further Hawks' failures are starting to become unexpected and worrisome. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
I've also referenced my Brother a few times since I started doing this, as he often has some poignant thoughts that I can run with. My recent diatribe about Cubs fans was inspired by an exchange between Out of Town Bob and Big Sexy 11. Out of Town Bob was so christened because he came down to party with my buddies in law school and decided he could act like a total idiot, because he was from out of town and wouldn't see these people ever again. And he lived up to that promise, leaving behind the legend of Out of Town Bob.
Big Sexy 11 once saved me from getting pounded in an on-ice rec league scuffle when I lost my helmet in a scrum (where I was the clear victor) and yet the refs weren't gonna step in. So when he said to me "Let's come up with a sweet nickname for myself, something like: Big Sexy 11," I was happy to oblige.
Today, I introduce the final member of our six-man group - my buddy Face. Why Face? Because I decided that he, in every way, is the guy from the A-Team. That's a high compliment by the way, as I always loved Face the most on that show.
So Face sent me an insightful email after Game 3's loss and it inspired a response from me that pretty much summed up my thoughts, so I figured I'd just post the two here.
From Face:
My dad asked me if tomorrow's game is a "must win" and if I thought we're being out-coached. Here's my answer, and I'm curious your take on my thoughts:
Someone asked if game 2 was a must win, and I said no because hockey teams can come back from down 2-0. Down 3-1 is a different story. Although anything's possible, I think that it would be very hard to come back. HOWEVER, when you have the kind of talent the Hawks have, they could do it. Conversely, imagine if the current bulls were down 3-0 or 3-1 to the Cavs (I probably should say "when" not "if"); there's no chance of a comeback because they're just getting beat by a better team.
The Hawks can come back no matter what, so I won't say it's a MUST win, but it sure as heck won't help if we don't tie up the series. Still, down 3-1, you know they'd win at the UC on Saturday, making it 3-2. If they can then win in Nashville, which is totally possible, then it's tied up. Who do you think wins a decisive game 7 at the United Center? So no, not a must win, but surely would go a long way toward helping.
The Hawks can come back no matter what, so I won't say it's a MUST win, but it sure as heck won't help if we don't tie up the series. Still, down 3-1, you know they'd win at the UC on Saturday, making it 3-2. If they can then win in Nashville, which is totally possible, then it's tied up. Who do you think wins a decisive game 7 at the United Center? So no, not a must win, but surely would go a long way toward helping.
Either way, this proves that every team that makes the playoffs is dangerous. It's totally different than basketball that way, but very similar to baseball. If you're in the playoffs, you're a very good team, and if on top of that your goalie is really hot, you can beat any team. Just like in baseball if you make the playoffs and have 2 starting pitcher "aces," you can win the World Series (remember Schilling & Johnson for Arizona??).
Yes, we are being out-coached. Without question. Queneville is just not pushing the right buttons. We beat them 4 out of 6 games this season, so why now do we look like a mediocre team up against an un-tamable beast?? I say the answer is we aren't being physical enough. We should look for any and every opportunity to hit these guys and get them rattled. Their neutral zone trap is killing us! We can barely get it in the zone!
We also just have to realize that we're seeing the coming out party of Pekka Rinne. He's an absolute stud, but he's never been in the playoffs before, so the hockey world is now getting to see him. In fact, have you seen the Patrick Roy commercials they show, where he makes a big save as a rookie, and it reads, "What if he had played like a rookie?" I'm thinking this is something where in a few years, the Hawks, if they lose, may be looking back and saying, "Yeah, that was before anyone knew about perennial all-star Pekka Rinne."
Very frustrating team to play against. In fact, if we somehow get past them, I think the rest of the West looks very beatable comparatively. If all we have to do is outscore a team (e.g. 6-4 type wins), we can do that. But against a stifling trapping team, we look awful.
Yes, we are being out-coached. Without question. Queneville is just not pushing the right buttons. We beat them 4 out of 6 games this season, so why now do we look like a mediocre team up against an un-tamable beast?? I say the answer is we aren't being physical enough. We should look for any and every opportunity to hit these guys and get them rattled. Their neutral zone trap is killing us! We can barely get it in the zone!
We also just have to realize that we're seeing the coming out party of Pekka Rinne. He's an absolute stud, but he's never been in the playoffs before, so the hockey world is now getting to see him. In fact, have you seen the Patrick Roy commercials they show, where he makes a big save as a rookie, and it reads, "What if he had played like a rookie?" I'm thinking this is something where in a few years, the Hawks, if they lose, may be looking back and saying, "Yeah, that was before anyone knew about perennial all-star Pekka Rinne."
Very frustrating team to play against. In fact, if we somehow get past them, I think the rest of the West looks very beatable comparatively. If all we have to do is outscore a team (e.g. 6-4 type wins), we can do that. But against a stifling trapping team, we look awful.
My Response:
1) Agree that it's not a must-win, like a Game 3 where you're down 2-0 would be. As you said, the home ice, talent, and experience advantage all would allow them to win three straight without it being a miracle.
Like you laid out, I'm mad at myself for being an ignorant fan. Because the Preds didn't have a name, didn't have a story, I didn't respect them. Yes, I knew it was wholly possible the Hawks would get upset, but I pretty much allowed only two possibilities - we played as expected and trounced the Preds 4-0 or 4-1, or we lost the series.
The result of that thinking? I wasn't prepared for the much more realistic scenario that the Hawks would struggle but still win out. Losing Game 1 really threw me. It was fluky, but it still was a loss and gave the Preds all kinds of confidence. I didn't like what that portended. Taking Game 2 made me feel better, but not fully. Getting flat out beat - no bounces, no bad calls, no great tending, just flat out beat - in Game 3 really put me in a bad spot.
But why? As we're both agreeing - the Hawks could lose another and still win this thing. The simple fact is much like you said - in the NHL playoffs, you should NEVER expect anything less than a 6-game series. It may happen, but it's a fluke, the result of hot goaltending, an ideal match-up, a bunch of fortunate bounces, a banged up team, or somehow coming out on top in three or even four tight games.
So these two losses to the Preds were to be expected. Would I have preferred to win Games 1 and 2, pick up another in Nashville, and then have Game 5 be that 2nd expected loss? Sure. But who cares when they happen - in the end, the Hawks were most likely gonna lose two, and now they've done it. Nothing has happened yet that we shouldn't have expected.
I do see the Hawks bouncing back Thursday just as they bounced back in Game 2. Renewed focus, superior talent, better execution and a W to show for it. Back in the UC, with series control on the line, the Hawks finally put the Preds in their place. Game 6 is a dog fight, but the Preds are too beat up and the Hawks prevail.
We've all seen that happen plenty of times - most of the time we're rooting for the underdog (be it in basketball or hockey) and start to believe they actually have a shot, only for the favorite to show exactly why they're the favorite and piss us off (I'm thinking every Kobe-involved Lakers series ever).
This could shake out in any way, but what has happened so far doesn't have to be a harbinger of terrible things for this team. It's just as likely it's the standard challenges that go into every Cup run. Not that I'm 100% convinced it will be, but we're being the type of annoying fans we hate if we're freaking out just because we lost two games in a playoff series to a team that's playing solid hockey.
2) I do agree JQ is getting out-coached. Great call on the 4-2 record over the Preds during the season. This is not a team that should be a surprise or a challenge, yet they've been both. I said when JQ was hired that I didn't like it - he'd been around plenty and never done jack squat (one Conference Finals birth, despite years and years of 90+ point teams in Colorado and St. Louis, back when 90 points meant something).
Recently I heard a stat that said every Cup winning coach at least got to the Finals by year 7 of their career or something (I might have the specifics wrong, but you get the idea). JQ is well past that point in his career w/ a meager two (thanks to last year's run) Conference Finals births. I fear he's one of the coaches who can only take you so far - a Doug Collins, if you will. But who knows - as we agreed above, it's still VERY early in this series. No reason JQ couldn't get it back together (as he did last year) and ride this team farther than most expected (as he did last year).
But for now, I disagree with you that it's the physicality that is the issue. I actually have noticed a lot of the Hawks really going after hits. They've done well enough in front of the nets (i.e. the Preds aren't beating us because we can't clear our own crease) and along the boards. Not that we've dominated along the boards, but we've been the Preds' equals, which is a respectable commentary on their physicality, given that the Preds thrive on board play.
I think it's just poor strategy and attitude. The Hawks have faced teams trying to slow them down all year - why is this team all of the sudden giving them so many issues? Why are they the first team ever to get so many chances on the Hawks? Sure, no Johnsson and Campbell is big, but this big? Shouldn't JQ be more prepared for what everyone in the world expected from our inferior-talented first round opponent?
I also hate the Hawks attitude this series - they got down in Game 1 and Game 3, and immediately went all chicken with their heads cut off, playing in total desperation, despite the games being very winnable (down 2-1 early in the 3rd, down 3-1 midway through the 2nd against an inferior club). They got away from the style that's allowed them to dominate all year - puck possession, cycling, crisp passes, lots of shots. Instead, they just flew around like idiots, as if they were down 2 with a minute left, and played right into the Preds hands.
That's half leadership, half coaching. In both cases, the Hawks have failed. Toews, Keith, Sharp, and Hossa should have set the relaxed but determined and aggressive tone once they got down. Instead, they were a big part of the hectic chaos. I'm especially bothered by Toews and Hossa - both have missed way too many chances, done way too little this series. Hockey players are all streaky - it's only been three games and they have plenty of time to make their mark. But now's the time to do it - I've called those guys out in my mind.
And JQ is very much to blame for the desperation also - not just for failing to keep his guys properly focused, but also thanks to all of his idiotic line swapping. It was his job to get his lines set heading into the playoffs. He needed guys comfortable and familiar with each other, capable of executing the puck possession game even more demanded by the tight confines of playoff hockey.
Instead, after one game, JQ juggled things. Then midway through Game 3, he just threw organization out the window completely - there was no semblance of lines, just guys going on and off like a rat hockey session. Is it any wonder they blew off their system and just flew around like idiots? Is it any wonder they failed to get any sustained pressure?
Look, I dig that the team was going balls out - that's the way they played their best hockey last playoffs. But last year they did it within the confines of their known and familiar lines, and kept to their system. Defenders would pinch, forwards would kill themselves for possession along the boards, but it all was still with an eye on cycling the puck to the playmakers and creating opportunities. This series, it's been just desperate insanity in an effort to throw any piece of crap toward the net.
3) I disagree that Rinne is having a coming out. He's made some nice saves, but nothing more than a good NHL goalie playing well. He has not stood on his head nor made me curse the bad luck of facing a hot goalie. He's been very good, but not amazingly great.
Instead, the Hawks have made him look great by missing the net and blowing chances. They've had poor shot selection, been weak on getting rebounds, and missed about 100 different open nets - either by literally missing (hitting the post, missing totally, or hitting Rinne) or by not getting a shot off, sometimes due to great D by the Preds, but just as often by not pulling the trigger when the should have.
Some blown chances will happen, but the Hawks have created and then blown WAY too many incredible scoring chances. If they had buried as many of those as you'd expect out of a club this talented, we'd be up 3-0 and the Preds and Rinne would be what they should be - an after-thought.
4) Had to add this - Versteeg played amazingly last night. He did miss a few chances, but he created tons, both for himself and for others. If the guys around him had been playing even decently, the Hawks would have netted a few. Versteeg will make his mistakes, but if he can keep playing like that, it could change a game or two. I'd love to see it - for some reason, more than anyone else (except maybe Kane), I want to see Versteeg succeed.
Well, lesson learned. It's been a generation since we rooted for a heavily-favored Hawks team in the playoffs, we can be forgiven for forgetting what are reasonable expectations entering a series. The Preds have gotten the two wins we expected of them. Only now are we at the point where further Hawks' failures are starting to become unexpected and worrisome. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Monday, April 19, 2010
At Least It's Interesting Now
Before I express my set of blah feelings on this series so far - not terribly surprising, given my attitude coming in and what's shaken out so far - let me point out a bush league mistake I made in my Predators preview. I don't claim to be overly knowledgeable about any NHL team except the Hawks, but I do pride myself on being able to at least present an accurate overview of a team after a bit of research.
Unfortunately, I missed out on a pair of Preds in my Friday post, because both came over in mid-season trades very late and neither logged a ton of ice time. The first isn't terribly impactful - Dustin Boyd did see action last night, but only because young goal-scorer Patric Hornqvist was injured. A depth forward who came over from Calgary, hopefully Boyd's not a name you have to care about (if it is, the Hawks have caught a few more crappy breaks).
The other player - Denis Grebeshkov - is worth mentioning. He's yet to appear in the series due to a groin issue, but he's definitely a solid defenseman who had a nice break-out season for the Oilers in 08-09 (7 G, 32 A, +12), only to take a step back this year as that whole franchise went from suck to blow. His presence would definitely help add a bit of depth and skill to the Preds' blueline.
Now to my thoughts... blah.
First blah is to the whole experience that was Game 1. First off, stupid Versus having a monopoly and only one venue to show the games is retarded. Back in the day, ESPN would air the games on ESPN and ESPN2, allowing you to watch non-stop action and rarely miss much. Sure, I've got to be happy that I can find playoff hockey anywhere on TV these days, but having been down in Florida this weekend, it was annoying to not get to watch the Hawks for the first period.
Second blah is to Google Maps and the government of Ft. Lauderdale, FLA. It didn't help my mood that as the Hawks were unraveling, I had to help my Mom find the Ft. Lauderdale airport because Google had absurdly terrible directions and that idiotic town (or state) didn't put up good signage. Aggravating all of this was that my youngest sister was learning the valuable but frustrating lesson that you should never plan on watching a key game at a bar unless you are sure it'll be playing there, with you having an easy time seeing the screen.
I thus was trying to update my sister as she made her way home from her bad bar game-watching experience and keep my Mom from touring the Ft. Lauderdale ghetto (semi-successfully) and thus didn't get to see as much of Game 1 as I would have liked. I caught the Hawks dominance in Period 2 and the unforgiveable garbage goal by the Preds, but after that I had, at best, one eye on the game. It was enough to be sickened by what happened, but not enough to pinpoint why.
Third blah - one obvious conclusion I had that I haven't read anywhere else: the Hawks choked WAY too many great chances. Versteeg claimed to have been hooked on his open net in Game 1, but whatever - be strong and bury the damn thing already! There were a number of other clear chances - I think Toews had one, definitely a few other guys did, where we just weren't hitting the 4x6.
Fourth blah - to the temptingly awesome, but frustratingly annoying technology that is in-flight internet. I was flying home from Florida smack dab during Game 2, but the timing was ideal - puck dropped about a half hour after take-off, plenty of time to get in the air and be allowed to rev up my PC for at least the first two periods (the hope - it was a blow-out so I wouldn't mind missing Period 3 as we landed and got our stuff).
I started out by listening to the free broadcast on WGN (cheers to the NHL for not trying to make a buck on every opportunity - if a fan is willing to listen to a hockey game on the internet, he shouldn't have to pay for it, too... but more on that later). But as good as Troy and John are, I really had a need to see how the Hawks were skating, really see for myself how things were shaking out. So I went to NHL.com and figured they'd have some online way to watch and that I'd be willing to pay. For $19.95, I could do just that - sweet. Didn't even run into any blackout issues, as my I.P. address of the middle of the sky was not considered a local market.
Random aside - what the F is with local blackouts? Look, I get if the Hawks are blacked out on Versus if that same Hawks game plays locally on WGN or Comcast. But why black out other games or other media? They think anyone would CHOOSE to watch online when they could get in front of a TV? Are they idiots?!? And do they really think that if I want to watch the Sharks game but it's blacked out, that I'll watch the Hawks? Or that you'll lose much of your Hawks audience because the Sharks game is available on Satellite or the internet?
The ONLY thing these black-out rules do is piss off your most diehard fans. NO ONE benefits in any way - the rights holders are not gaining any audience by these blackouts. Not in the slightest. These are antiquated rules that deal with a wholly different media landscape from literally generations ago. It's time every major sporting league revisit their broadcast agreements and completely rework the black-out policies with the modern media landscape and the fan in mind. Because these days, it doesn't matter how you reach them, just that you do - every broadcast opportunity can be easily monetized in today's world. So take the fan every way you can get em, with no limits, and you'll maximize the return for everyone.
Sorry, but that was a necessary digression. One I might turn into a bigger post someday, in the hopes that Puck Daddy will carry it and changes will be made. You can all thank me then.
Unfortunately, while I actually was able to get the Hawks game online, the connection on the plane wasn't good enough, even at the lowest quality, to be watchable. It was OK for like five minutes to end the first, but then it went into buffering mode every other second (literally) making the game a slowed-down stop-animation mess of frustration. I eventually just quit, went back to WGN, and was able to listen through the second period.
So in Game 2, much like Game 1, I didn't get a great view of things and can't add a ton to what everyone else is saying. But again, I do feel like the Hawks were missing too many prime chances for a team that is this good. Troy Murray seemed to be with me, complaining loudly and often about the poor shot selection of the Hawks. This was from the opening drop - as if he already was leery of this issue.
I know Toews had a beauty he shanked and there were a number of other chances that guys just couldn't seem to turn into lamp lighters. The refs got in on it, but that was only one of the many opportunities - and hey, that's just how sports work sometimes. Hard to fault the refs for one blown call, even as painful as it was.
So yeah, in this game these missed opps didn't hurt, but you never know when you're gonna be in a situation like Game 1, where a fluke bounce, bad turnover, and some momentum will be enough to sink you. How different would Game 1 had been if instead of making it 1-1, that crap goal only cut the lead to 2-1? Or better yet, 3-1. Both could easily have been the case and we'd probably be looking at a whole different series.
Heck, even Game 2 - how much nicer would it have been to win that game 5-0, for the statement it would have made? Sure, Nashville was heading home with confidence of taking a game and returning to home ice either way, but if the Hawks had a blow out under their belts, don't you think the Preds might have been a bit more likely to fold come some difficulties in Games 3 and 4?
Whatever, that's all conjecture - what matters is that the Hawks need to figure out whatever it is that's wrong and make the correction. It's nothing so simple as working harder, but maybe it's a better focus. Maybe it's a better approach to the game - maybe all the hype has got this team a bit on edge. Something is keeping them from playing their best hockey.
Heading down the stretch, my one hope was that the Hawks avoided the Wings in Round 1. But now I'm wondering if our best first round opponent wouldn't have been the Wings. Instead of playing a series that didn't have a lot of room for achievement but a ton for failure, the Hawks could have come in with something to prove right off the bat. Set the playoff tone immediately - the Wings era was over, now was the time of the Hawks.
Instead, the Hawks are up against a team who plays a super-frustrating game and can play it well. And dumb freakin luck gave them the confidence they need to actually believe this style of play could triumph over the Hawks. I give the Hawks credit - Niemi especially - for taking the necessary steps in Game 2 to begin burying the Preds longshot hopes.
And I'm looking forward to Game 3 - I think the Hawks, when challenged, are able to step up to any style of play and beat the other team at it. They ran into problems last year against the Wings because the Wings had more talent AND played the style of game better. This year? I don't see the Hawks facing that scenario again. I believe the Hawks will always be more talented and that they can thus beat any team at their game, whatever it is.
We saw it against both Calgary and Vancouver last year. Calgary tried to make the game a slugfest, and the Hawks not only slugged back, but out-worked and out-gutted the Flames, to the point that the team is now a shell of itself. Vancouver tried to get under the Hawks skin, while riding Luongo and a few solid offensive options. The Hawks responded by getting right back under the Canucks' skin, peppering Luongo along the way to the point of tears. Literally - they made the dude cry.
So I fully expect that a far less talented Preds team up against a far more talented and accomplished Hawks team will meet a similar fate. Sure, a bit of luck, a great goalie outing, or just another brain fart of a game by the Hawks might send this to six games. But I've got every faith the Hawks will dispose of this team, and without it going the distance.
I just wish they'd dominated from the first drop of the puck, taken away all the drama and established themselves more convincingly as in the mix of Cup favorites. And I wish that I had been able to watch a good TV broadcast of the entire thing.
But hey, all the rest of the Cup Contenders are in the same position - having dropped one of the first two. And my schedule is pretty free on Tuesday and Thursday - I'll be in front of my TV, with my favorite co-pilot next to me (my 9 month old daughter Lily), ready to see the Preds put back in their place. Maybe I complained a bit about the Preds making for a blah first round opponent, but now I've been, annoyingly, given reason to get my dander up about these games. I plan on a pair of Ws, maybe a bit ugly, but Ws all the same, to put the Hawks back squarely on the path to something we'll all remember forever.
Unfortunately, I missed out on a pair of Preds in my Friday post, because both came over in mid-season trades very late and neither logged a ton of ice time. The first isn't terribly impactful - Dustin Boyd did see action last night, but only because young goal-scorer Patric Hornqvist was injured. A depth forward who came over from Calgary, hopefully Boyd's not a name you have to care about (if it is, the Hawks have caught a few more crappy breaks).
The other player - Denis Grebeshkov - is worth mentioning. He's yet to appear in the series due to a groin issue, but he's definitely a solid defenseman who had a nice break-out season for the Oilers in 08-09 (7 G, 32 A, +12), only to take a step back this year as that whole franchise went from suck to blow. His presence would definitely help add a bit of depth and skill to the Preds' blueline.
Now to my thoughts... blah.
First blah is to the whole experience that was Game 1. First off, stupid Versus having a monopoly and only one venue to show the games is retarded. Back in the day, ESPN would air the games on ESPN and ESPN2, allowing you to watch non-stop action and rarely miss much. Sure, I've got to be happy that I can find playoff hockey anywhere on TV these days, but having been down in Florida this weekend, it was annoying to not get to watch the Hawks for the first period.
Second blah is to Google Maps and the government of Ft. Lauderdale, FLA. It didn't help my mood that as the Hawks were unraveling, I had to help my Mom find the Ft. Lauderdale airport because Google had absurdly terrible directions and that idiotic town (or state) didn't put up good signage. Aggravating all of this was that my youngest sister was learning the valuable but frustrating lesson that you should never plan on watching a key game at a bar unless you are sure it'll be playing there, with you having an easy time seeing the screen.
I thus was trying to update my sister as she made her way home from her bad bar game-watching experience and keep my Mom from touring the Ft. Lauderdale ghetto (semi-successfully) and thus didn't get to see as much of Game 1 as I would have liked. I caught the Hawks dominance in Period 2 and the unforgiveable garbage goal by the Preds, but after that I had, at best, one eye on the game. It was enough to be sickened by what happened, but not enough to pinpoint why.
Third blah - one obvious conclusion I had that I haven't read anywhere else: the Hawks choked WAY too many great chances. Versteeg claimed to have been hooked on his open net in Game 1, but whatever - be strong and bury the damn thing already! There were a number of other clear chances - I think Toews had one, definitely a few other guys did, where we just weren't hitting the 4x6.
Fourth blah - to the temptingly awesome, but frustratingly annoying technology that is in-flight internet. I was flying home from Florida smack dab during Game 2, but the timing was ideal - puck dropped about a half hour after take-off, plenty of time to get in the air and be allowed to rev up my PC for at least the first two periods (the hope - it was a blow-out so I wouldn't mind missing Period 3 as we landed and got our stuff).
I started out by listening to the free broadcast on WGN (cheers to the NHL for not trying to make a buck on every opportunity - if a fan is willing to listen to a hockey game on the internet, he shouldn't have to pay for it, too... but more on that later). But as good as Troy and John are, I really had a need to see how the Hawks were skating, really see for myself how things were shaking out. So I went to NHL.com and figured they'd have some online way to watch and that I'd be willing to pay. For $19.95, I could do just that - sweet. Didn't even run into any blackout issues, as my I.P. address of the middle of the sky was not considered a local market.
Random aside - what the F is with local blackouts? Look, I get if the Hawks are blacked out on Versus if that same Hawks game plays locally on WGN or Comcast. But why black out other games or other media? They think anyone would CHOOSE to watch online when they could get in front of a TV? Are they idiots?!? And do they really think that if I want to watch the Sharks game but it's blacked out, that I'll watch the Hawks? Or that you'll lose much of your Hawks audience because the Sharks game is available on Satellite or the internet?
The ONLY thing these black-out rules do is piss off your most diehard fans. NO ONE benefits in any way - the rights holders are not gaining any audience by these blackouts. Not in the slightest. These are antiquated rules that deal with a wholly different media landscape from literally generations ago. It's time every major sporting league revisit their broadcast agreements and completely rework the black-out policies with the modern media landscape and the fan in mind. Because these days, it doesn't matter how you reach them, just that you do - every broadcast opportunity can be easily monetized in today's world. So take the fan every way you can get em, with no limits, and you'll maximize the return for everyone.
Sorry, but that was a necessary digression. One I might turn into a bigger post someday, in the hopes that Puck Daddy will carry it and changes will be made. You can all thank me then.
Unfortunately, while I actually was able to get the Hawks game online, the connection on the plane wasn't good enough, even at the lowest quality, to be watchable. It was OK for like five minutes to end the first, but then it went into buffering mode every other second (literally) making the game a slowed-down stop-animation mess of frustration. I eventually just quit, went back to WGN, and was able to listen through the second period.
So in Game 2, much like Game 1, I didn't get a great view of things and can't add a ton to what everyone else is saying. But again, I do feel like the Hawks were missing too many prime chances for a team that is this good. Troy Murray seemed to be with me, complaining loudly and often about the poor shot selection of the Hawks. This was from the opening drop - as if he already was leery of this issue.
I know Toews had a beauty he shanked and there were a number of other chances that guys just couldn't seem to turn into lamp lighters. The refs got in on it, but that was only one of the many opportunities - and hey, that's just how sports work sometimes. Hard to fault the refs for one blown call, even as painful as it was.
So yeah, in this game these missed opps didn't hurt, but you never know when you're gonna be in a situation like Game 1, where a fluke bounce, bad turnover, and some momentum will be enough to sink you. How different would Game 1 had been if instead of making it 1-1, that crap goal only cut the lead to 2-1? Or better yet, 3-1. Both could easily have been the case and we'd probably be looking at a whole different series.
Heck, even Game 2 - how much nicer would it have been to win that game 5-0, for the statement it would have made? Sure, Nashville was heading home with confidence of taking a game and returning to home ice either way, but if the Hawks had a blow out under their belts, don't you think the Preds might have been a bit more likely to fold come some difficulties in Games 3 and 4?
Whatever, that's all conjecture - what matters is that the Hawks need to figure out whatever it is that's wrong and make the correction. It's nothing so simple as working harder, but maybe it's a better focus. Maybe it's a better approach to the game - maybe all the hype has got this team a bit on edge. Something is keeping them from playing their best hockey.
Heading down the stretch, my one hope was that the Hawks avoided the Wings in Round 1. But now I'm wondering if our best first round opponent wouldn't have been the Wings. Instead of playing a series that didn't have a lot of room for achievement but a ton for failure, the Hawks could have come in with something to prove right off the bat. Set the playoff tone immediately - the Wings era was over, now was the time of the Hawks.
Instead, the Hawks are up against a team who plays a super-frustrating game and can play it well. And dumb freakin luck gave them the confidence they need to actually believe this style of play could triumph over the Hawks. I give the Hawks credit - Niemi especially - for taking the necessary steps in Game 2 to begin burying the Preds longshot hopes.
And I'm looking forward to Game 3 - I think the Hawks, when challenged, are able to step up to any style of play and beat the other team at it. They ran into problems last year against the Wings because the Wings had more talent AND played the style of game better. This year? I don't see the Hawks facing that scenario again. I believe the Hawks will always be more talented and that they can thus beat any team at their game, whatever it is.
We saw it against both Calgary and Vancouver last year. Calgary tried to make the game a slugfest, and the Hawks not only slugged back, but out-worked and out-gutted the Flames, to the point that the team is now a shell of itself. Vancouver tried to get under the Hawks skin, while riding Luongo and a few solid offensive options. The Hawks responded by getting right back under the Canucks' skin, peppering Luongo along the way to the point of tears. Literally - they made the dude cry.
So I fully expect that a far less talented Preds team up against a far more talented and accomplished Hawks team will meet a similar fate. Sure, a bit of luck, a great goalie outing, or just another brain fart of a game by the Hawks might send this to six games. But I've got every faith the Hawks will dispose of this team, and without it going the distance.
I just wish they'd dominated from the first drop of the puck, taken away all the drama and established themselves more convincingly as in the mix of Cup favorites. And I wish that I had been able to watch a good TV broadcast of the entire thing.
But hey, all the rest of the Cup Contenders are in the same position - having dropped one of the first two. And my schedule is pretty free on Tuesday and Thursday - I'll be in front of my TV, with my favorite co-pilot next to me (my 9 month old daughter Lily), ready to see the Preds put back in their place. Maybe I complained a bit about the Preds making for a blah first round opponent, but now I've been, annoyingly, given reason to get my dander up about these games. I plan on a pair of Ws, maybe a bit ugly, but Ws all the same, to put the Hawks back squarely on the path to something we'll all remember forever.
Friday, April 16, 2010
"If it bleeds, we can kill it. "
The blog post title is from, naturally, "Predator." Amazing movie. Back when action movies actually existed. And action stars existed. And would all make movies together. Sly Stallone is trying to put one more together, coming out this year, with about every major action star of yesterday at least asked to participate (many, for unknown reasons, turned down their only chance at work in years). I can't wait.
But I digress. With the Hawks opening up the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight, I figured we'd take a look at who we're facing, the Nashville Predators.
First, though - I gotta say, this is a very foreign feeling. I'm not used to finishing a regular season with such little fanfare. Without instantly getting all jacked up about the playoff match-up it brings. Last season was such a big deal to make the playoffs and there was so much hope and uncertainty that you were just buzzing about the Calgary series. In baseball and football every playoff game is always huge. But this series with the Preds? Not doing much for me. And that is something I haven't experienced in a long while - probably since the Bulls were more than a giant ATM for Reinsdorf to discreetly raid to fund the Sox $100M+ payrolls.
Sure, I'm pumped about the first round games because it's always fun to watch the Hawks and these games obviously matter a ton. But this first round really just seems like more of the regular season - you want and need to do well, but there's not a whole lot to accomplish. Look, I'm well aware of how often bottom seeded teams knock off the favorites. Over the years I've probably watched more playoff hockey than any other sport. And the Hawks, being young with iffy D (thanks to injuries) and unproven goaltending, are ripe for an upset.
But there's just a different level of enthusiasm that comes when facing a series where the best you can accomplish is not to get upset. Maybe we smoke through these guys in four games and start to feel invulnerable again. But would that really make you that much more confident against the Wings or Canucks in Round 2? Would it really change anything?
The fact is that this series, just like the regular season, is about taking care of business. Our opponents, the division rival Nashville Predators, exemplify that. They'll be scrappy, they'll give us a good run, and as I said, they could even get some hot goaltending and knock us out. But they aren't a bunch of big names, they aren't much of an accomplished team, and they aren't particularly hot or interesting in any way.
To me, this has all the feeling of the "play-in game" during March Madness.I t matters somehow, but it's just a precursor to the real deal. Only if and when we get past Nashville will I really start to feel "Game On!" And what a feeling that will be - we just might be on the cusp of the greatest Hawks season of any of our lives. Holy balls could it be absolutely amazing!
But for now, we've got the uninteresting task of taking care of a team we should handle with relative ease. Who is this Nashville team who sits in front of us, capable of an upset, but too boring to offer the upside of any great sense of accomplishment?
As a franchise, they've been respectable, making the playoffs in their 6th year of existence, quietly building a solid nucleus and sticking with Barry Trotz, the only coach the franchise has ever had. New ownership screwed them up last year, bringing an end to five straight post-season births, but they're back again now.
How'd they get here this season? By not being bad. Really - they don't do anything particularly special. They scored and gave up 225 goals, both middle of the pack. Their special teams are both in the Bottom 5 in the league. They had only one 30-goal scorer, one 20-goal scorer, and two 30-assist guys.
When a team looks very mediocre on paper but wins games (their 47 wins were 8th in the NHL), generally it means some great goalie play. But while Pekka Rinne was solid with a 2.53 GAA (13th) and .911 Sv % (21st), he certainly wasn't noteworthy. He's capable of stepping up - as evidenced by his 7 shut-outs in only 58 games (one of the best such percentages in the NHL) and .757 save percentage in 45 shoot-out attempts (again, one of the best in the NHL).
Those numbers suggest Rinne can get hot and close the door, especially when the stakes are raised. But it also means that he had a lot of very pedestrian outings, with plenty of teams figuring him out on plenty of nights. So what else kept the Preds on the upside of most of their games?
Basically, they just do what they need to in order to get the W. They know the Hawks are far more talented, so they're gonna try to slow the game down, muck up our rushes, and score on the counter attack. They know the Hawks will dominate puck possession, so their goal will be to keep those possessions from being dangerous and take advantage of a goalie who's not able to get into any rhythm.
One other thing I do take away from their numbers - if they struggle on special teams but still end up a decent to good team, that means The Preds must play pretty solidly 5x5. That's a tough spot to be in when looking to upset a team like the Hawks. Generally you hope to get lucky with some power play goals and kill off their penalties, and just maintain 5x5 as you steal victories. If the Preds can't stop the Hawks with a man advantage, they're gonna be hurtin. Though the one facet of the Hawks game that isn't dominant is their power play, so maybe the Preds did catch a good match-up. Still, I don't see them continuously beating the Hawks in 5x5 hockey for seven games. But we'll see - as I said, these kind of upsets happen all the time.
Who will be leading their counter-attacks, looking to put young Uncle Niemi in his place? Most of the Preds attack comes from the wings. 23-year old Swede Patric Hornquist was very quiet in his limited NHL play last year, but in his first full year broke out for a 30-goal performance to easily pace the Preds (while adding 18 assists). Martin Erat, always a thorn in the Hawks side, had 21 goals and 28 assists.
Last year's leading scorer, JP Dumont, had 17 goals to go with 28 assists, while this year's leading scorer, Steve Sullivan, matched his 17 goals with a team high 34 assists. Both players were with the Hawks during some of the dark ages and have since gone on to productive careers.
Joel Ward scored 13 times and added 21 helpers to make some impact. Youngster Colin Wilson has come up and immediately been thrown a good amount of ice time, netting 8 and assisting on 7 more in only 35 games. Jordan Tootoo also seems to get some regular bottom line time.
At center, ageless Jason Arnott had 19 scores and 27 assists in only 63 games. He's not much of a face-off guy, though not terrible. American-born David Legwand was to be the face of the franchise, but has only gone over 20 goals or 50 points one time. This year he had 11 goals and 27 assists, but also was mediocre in the face-off circle. He did lead all Pred forwards in ice time, meaning he's probably got a good all-around game.
German Marcel Goc has always been tough in the circle and did respectable bottom line work for the Sharks before putting together a career year of 12 goals and 18 assists in Nashville this season. Jerred Smithson plays a similar game at center, potting 9 goals and 4 assists and being a plus in the face-off circle.
In all, it's not a terribly impressive forward core. They aren't terrible, but they aren't very good. They just play the Pred system well and get small contributions from everyone. Is that enough to win a series? So far it hasn't been, as the Preds are 0-for-5 in playoff series in their history.
Defensively, the Preds are lead by Shea Weber, whose 16 goals and 27 assists make him one of the more offensively gifted blueliners out there. He's joined by a pair of Americans in young Olympian Ryan Suter (4 G, 33 A) and veteran Francis Bouillon (3 G, 8 A). Dan Hamhuis (5 G, 19 A) and Kevin Klein (1 G, 10 A) also get around 20 minutes of ice. Young Cody Franson (6 G, 15 A) rounds out the blueliners.
How good is that group? It's always hard to tell. Weber and Suter are definitely high impact young defenders and their ice time shows it. Hamhuis has been solid for a few years now, while Klein is just coming into his own. Bouillon is just a depth defender, Franson is cutting his teeth.
Can they hold up to what the Hawks will bring? Alone, nope, but they'll have help from their forwards. The Trotz system is all about playing within yourself and not giving up too much. It's not quite the slow down trap of the Devils, but in a series like this, it probably won't be too far off. With all five skaters and the goaltender focused on stopping the Hawks, scoring with any consistency will be tough.
But at the end of the day, the Hawks have enough firepower to overwhelm this team in a seven game series. They know the Preds, which is a good thing, and they aren't quite accomplished enough to take any playoff series for granted. They're playing well of late, even adjusting to their short-handed situation on defense. Niemi has seized the reigns and given everyone - himself include - reason to have full confidence in his abilities.
It's the NHL playoffs, so nothing will surprise me. One hot goalie can change everything. Top players can disappear, nobodies can become heroes. But I feel like the Hawks are hungry enough, talented enough, together enough, and good enough on the road to take this series in five.
And once that happens, I'll definitely start to ramp up my enthusiasm, as I definitely believe we're at the start of something pretty damn special here...
But I digress. With the Hawks opening up the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight, I figured we'd take a look at who we're facing, the Nashville Predators.
First, though - I gotta say, this is a very foreign feeling. I'm not used to finishing a regular season with such little fanfare. Without instantly getting all jacked up about the playoff match-up it brings. Last season was such a big deal to make the playoffs and there was so much hope and uncertainty that you were just buzzing about the Calgary series. In baseball and football every playoff game is always huge. But this series with the Preds? Not doing much for me. And that is something I haven't experienced in a long while - probably since the Bulls were more than a giant ATM for Reinsdorf to discreetly raid to fund the Sox $100M+ payrolls.
Sure, I'm pumped about the first round games because it's always fun to watch the Hawks and these games obviously matter a ton. But this first round really just seems like more of the regular season - you want and need to do well, but there's not a whole lot to accomplish. Look, I'm well aware of how often bottom seeded teams knock off the favorites. Over the years I've probably watched more playoff hockey than any other sport. And the Hawks, being young with iffy D (thanks to injuries) and unproven goaltending, are ripe for an upset.
But there's just a different level of enthusiasm that comes when facing a series where the best you can accomplish is not to get upset. Maybe we smoke through these guys in four games and start to feel invulnerable again. But would that really make you that much more confident against the Wings or Canucks in Round 2? Would it really change anything?
The fact is that this series, just like the regular season, is about taking care of business. Our opponents, the division rival Nashville Predators, exemplify that. They'll be scrappy, they'll give us a good run, and as I said, they could even get some hot goaltending and knock us out. But they aren't a bunch of big names, they aren't much of an accomplished team, and they aren't particularly hot or interesting in any way.
To me, this has all the feeling of the "play-in game" during March Madness.I t matters somehow, but it's just a precursor to the real deal. Only if and when we get past Nashville will I really start to feel "Game On!" And what a feeling that will be - we just might be on the cusp of the greatest Hawks season of any of our lives. Holy balls could it be absolutely amazing!
But for now, we've got the uninteresting task of taking care of a team we should handle with relative ease. Who is this Nashville team who sits in front of us, capable of an upset, but too boring to offer the upside of any great sense of accomplishment?
As a franchise, they've been respectable, making the playoffs in their 6th year of existence, quietly building a solid nucleus and sticking with Barry Trotz, the only coach the franchise has ever had. New ownership screwed them up last year, bringing an end to five straight post-season births, but they're back again now.
How'd they get here this season? By not being bad. Really - they don't do anything particularly special. They scored and gave up 225 goals, both middle of the pack. Their special teams are both in the Bottom 5 in the league. They had only one 30-goal scorer, one 20-goal scorer, and two 30-assist guys.
When a team looks very mediocre on paper but wins games (their 47 wins were 8th in the NHL), generally it means some great goalie play. But while Pekka Rinne was solid with a 2.53 GAA (13th) and .911 Sv % (21st), he certainly wasn't noteworthy. He's capable of stepping up - as evidenced by his 7 shut-outs in only 58 games (one of the best such percentages in the NHL) and .757 save percentage in 45 shoot-out attempts (again, one of the best in the NHL).
Those numbers suggest Rinne can get hot and close the door, especially when the stakes are raised. But it also means that he had a lot of very pedestrian outings, with plenty of teams figuring him out on plenty of nights. So what else kept the Preds on the upside of most of their games?
Basically, they just do what they need to in order to get the W. They know the Hawks are far more talented, so they're gonna try to slow the game down, muck up our rushes, and score on the counter attack. They know the Hawks will dominate puck possession, so their goal will be to keep those possessions from being dangerous and take advantage of a goalie who's not able to get into any rhythm.
One other thing I do take away from their numbers - if they struggle on special teams but still end up a decent to good team, that means The Preds must play pretty solidly 5x5. That's a tough spot to be in when looking to upset a team like the Hawks. Generally you hope to get lucky with some power play goals and kill off their penalties, and just maintain 5x5 as you steal victories. If the Preds can't stop the Hawks with a man advantage, they're gonna be hurtin. Though the one facet of the Hawks game that isn't dominant is their power play, so maybe the Preds did catch a good match-up. Still, I don't see them continuously beating the Hawks in 5x5 hockey for seven games. But we'll see - as I said, these kind of upsets happen all the time.
Who will be leading their counter-attacks, looking to put young Uncle Niemi in his place? Most of the Preds attack comes from the wings. 23-year old Swede Patric Hornquist was very quiet in his limited NHL play last year, but in his first full year broke out for a 30-goal performance to easily pace the Preds (while adding 18 assists). Martin Erat, always a thorn in the Hawks side, had 21 goals and 28 assists.
Last year's leading scorer, JP Dumont, had 17 goals to go with 28 assists, while this year's leading scorer, Steve Sullivan, matched his 17 goals with a team high 34 assists. Both players were with the Hawks during some of the dark ages and have since gone on to productive careers.
Joel Ward scored 13 times and added 21 helpers to make some impact. Youngster Colin Wilson has come up and immediately been thrown a good amount of ice time, netting 8 and assisting on 7 more in only 35 games. Jordan Tootoo also seems to get some regular bottom line time.
At center, ageless Jason Arnott had 19 scores and 27 assists in only 63 games. He's not much of a face-off guy, though not terrible. American-born David Legwand was to be the face of the franchise, but has only gone over 20 goals or 50 points one time. This year he had 11 goals and 27 assists, but also was mediocre in the face-off circle. He did lead all Pred forwards in ice time, meaning he's probably got a good all-around game.
German Marcel Goc has always been tough in the circle and did respectable bottom line work for the Sharks before putting together a career year of 12 goals and 18 assists in Nashville this season. Jerred Smithson plays a similar game at center, potting 9 goals and 4 assists and being a plus in the face-off circle.
In all, it's not a terribly impressive forward core. They aren't terrible, but they aren't very good. They just play the Pred system well and get small contributions from everyone. Is that enough to win a series? So far it hasn't been, as the Preds are 0-for-5 in playoff series in their history.
Defensively, the Preds are lead by Shea Weber, whose 16 goals and 27 assists make him one of the more offensively gifted blueliners out there. He's joined by a pair of Americans in young Olympian Ryan Suter (4 G, 33 A) and veteran Francis Bouillon (3 G, 8 A). Dan Hamhuis (5 G, 19 A) and Kevin Klein (1 G, 10 A) also get around 20 minutes of ice. Young Cody Franson (6 G, 15 A) rounds out the blueliners.
How good is that group? It's always hard to tell. Weber and Suter are definitely high impact young defenders and their ice time shows it. Hamhuis has been solid for a few years now, while Klein is just coming into his own. Bouillon is just a depth defender, Franson is cutting his teeth.
Can they hold up to what the Hawks will bring? Alone, nope, but they'll have help from their forwards. The Trotz system is all about playing within yourself and not giving up too much. It's not quite the slow down trap of the Devils, but in a series like this, it probably won't be too far off. With all five skaters and the goaltender focused on stopping the Hawks, scoring with any consistency will be tough.
But at the end of the day, the Hawks have enough firepower to overwhelm this team in a seven game series. They know the Preds, which is a good thing, and they aren't quite accomplished enough to take any playoff series for granted. They're playing well of late, even adjusting to their short-handed situation on defense. Niemi has seized the reigns and given everyone - himself include - reason to have full confidence in his abilities.
It's the NHL playoffs, so nothing will surprise me. One hot goalie can change everything. Top players can disappear, nobodies can become heroes. But I feel like the Hawks are hungry enough, talented enough, together enough, and good enough on the road to take this series in five.
And once that happens, I'll definitely start to ramp up my enthusiasm, as I definitely believe we're at the start of something pretty damn special here...
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
"This is the end... my only friend, the end."
Quoting the Doors is probably a bit dramatic for what really isn't so much as the end of the season as the half-time before the second half of it. But whatever, that song rules and was one of the most perfectly used tunes in the history of movies. And as a preview for the second season we've got coming, I figured it'd be good to look at what everyone accomplished now that we've reached the end of the 2009-2010 NHL regular season.
In brief, the Hawks were 2nd in the league in wins, 3rd in points, 3rd in goals, and 5th in goals against. Their power play was middle of the pack, their penalty kill one of the very best in the league (when you factor in short-handed goals... which absolutely should be factored in). And most impressive, they were #1 in shots/game, #1 in shots against/game, and no one came anywhere near the 9 shot advantage they averaged. In all, they were a force in all three zones, a team as well-rounded as any in all of hockey.
I figure I'll break this down by lines and pairings, as that'll help us get an idea of what we'll probably see (customary qualification - JQ loves line-changing almost as much as he loves giving Mustache Rides, so who really knows who will skate together).
First Line:
Toews ended up missing 6 games but saw his assist total (43), plus/minus (+22), and face-off percentage (57.4%) all jump from last year, when he played the full 82. He did drop from 34 goals to 25, but with five other guys breaking 20 goals and two more netting 17, Toews didn't need to score more. Instead, what will mark Toews' regular season had nothing to do with any of his numbers - it was his performance in the Olympics, where he showed himself to be the best player on the best team in the world.
For the Hawks to win the Cup, Toews is going to have to approach the Stanley Cup playoffs in the same way he did that tournament. Quietly, Captain Serious ensured that every time he was on the ice, his line was the best out there. While Madden and Bolland can do great work against any line, Toews is going to have to elevate when the Hawks face squads like the Wings, Sharks, Penguins, and Caps, all of whom get scoring from throughout their lineup.
To help him do so, Toews will have the nastiest pair of two-way players he could imagine. Hossa was everything he was advertised to be and more. In only 57 games (essentially 2/3 of the year), he racked up 24 goals, 27 assists, and was a +24, tops among all Hawks. 5x5, 4x4, power play, short-handed - whatever the set-up, this guy was a beast in all three zones. If it's in the game, Hossa does it well. That kind of well-rounded player is only that much more important in the post-season.
Sharp was no slouch himself, posting career highs in assists (41) and plus/minus (team high 24), while also proving that he could be a fully capable center (winning 51.7% of his draws). Just like Toews and Hossa, but with much less fanfare, Sharp can do it all. He's always been a sniper (25 goals this year, posted 36 two years back) but now he's rounded out his play-making ability. In addition, his speed and tenacity have always made him a plus defender.
Together, this line is an instant power-play. They dominate the puck, create loads of great chances, and absolutely wear out the other teams checking line and top pairing. To keep this line from beating you just by itself requires the best of the best from the other team. And that leaves the rest of the Hawks' lines in a great spot.
Second Line:
The biggest question mark for the Hawks forwards at this point is their second line. Bolland's injury was a bigger blow than everyone realized - not because of his loss, which our depth easily covered for. But because Bolland's development was stunted and he wasn't able to mesh with any wingers to provide a legit 2nd line. His numbers bear it out - in 39 games, he had only 6 goals, 10 assists, and was a +5, despite skating with guys like Hossa, Sharp, and Kane. One bright spot - he took a big step forward in the face-off circle, winning 49.4% of his draws.
However, JQ might be on to something in pairing Kane with Bolland. As complete as the first line skaters are, none of them are as offensively gifted as Kane. None of them elevate the play of everyone around him as Kane does. His numbers speak to that - a team leading 30 goals and 58 assists. If any one Hawk skater can create a legit 2nd line by himself, it's Kane. Bolland is a plus defender and capable enough scorer/playmaker to capitalize on playing with Kane. Together, and given the attention the top line will receive, this line might just get it done.
But to do so, I'm calling out the importance of Brouwer. I've made clear I've eaten my crow with this kid - he's become the strong garbage goal scorer we were promised he would be. He's physical and gives full effort, and certainly can handle himself defensively. Grouped with Kane and Toews, he was the perfect compliment - doing the dirty work to free them up and then burying the chances they created. His 22 goals, 18 assists, and +9 speak to that.
Since that line was broken up, Brouwer has quieted a bit. However, for the Hawks to have a legit 2nd line, Brouwer and Bolland need to step back up. I have every faith in both of them giving full effort, being physical, and playing great in their own end. It's going to come down to handling the puck and scoring - they've got to keep possessions going to allow Kane to create chances, and then they've got to turn those chances into regular goals. If this happens, the Hawks will be near impossible to hang with for even the most explosive offensive squads.
Checking Line:
As good as Madden has been, now is the time of year we're paying him for. The guy has the ring, he's been an integral part of a championship team. He's been through the battles many times, playing the same key role in each - that of shut-down center. As he's shown us, Madden is up to the challenge. His 10 goals and 13 assists don't speak to that, nor does his -2. His 53.7% success rate in the face-off circle does, but really you've got to see him play to appreciate the way he disrupts the other team's top line.
And there are no two other guys I'd rather have charged with this huge responsibility than the two linemates JQ has found for Madden. Versteeg has long had a dear place in my heart - while he went through a nice long stretch without much productivity and with a big slip in his play, I still saw more than enough to be encouraged. If you were paying attention, the guy just wasn't catching the breaks. He also was making a lot of mistakes, but some of that was pressing because luck was against him. I can't tell you how many great plays of his were stopped by good defense, poor play of linemates, or just the dumb luck of hitting a crossbar or something.
But Versteeg has since bounced back, amassed another solid year with 20 goals and 24 assists to go along with his +8. And alongside Madden, he's shown himself a highly capable checking line wing. He's always been a solid defender, with good speed and tenacity that belies his size. But Versteeg brings a bit of playmaking rarely found on a checking line, which not only creates scoring chances but also forces the other team's top line to play in all three zones.
Rounding out this line is the under-appreciated Ladd, whose 17 goals and 21 assists were quiet and important, alongside his +2. Big, physical, and a very smart defender, Ladd is a beautiful compliment to any line, but I've always thought he'd do his best work on a shutdown line. That's where JQ has him now and I really like the look of it. He brings the size you want, the defensive athleticism you need, and can also be dangerous offensively - key with a guy like Versteeg skating alongside.
In the playoffs, the checking line sees a lot of time - especially on the road - and I think these guys will do a hell of a job with all that ice time.
Fourth Line:
There were calls early that the fourth line had been a bit of a disappointment this season, but I felt that was because we really didn't have a true fourth line. With all the injuries and whatnot, JQ was constantly juggling different guys through there, including defensemen. Now that he's settled into a single group, the line has taken off.
I'm pumped that it's done so with Frasier at the helm. A recent scoring barage brought his season totals up to 7 goals, 12 assists, and a +6. Wow. Sure, were not looking for a lot of offense out of this line, but it's awesome when it comes. When they're doing their actual job, this line is about high energy, good puck possession, physical play. Frasier has been a driving force as the center. I'd like to see him continue to improve on his 48.8% face-off percentage, but he's getting there.
On his wing has been another surprise - Kopecky, who came in as someone with possible 2nd or 3rd line potential, only to look like a press box attendee. But of late he's made his mark, to the final tune of 10 goals, 11 assists, and an even plus/minus (a big improvement over where he spent most of the year). I have zero faith he'll ever be more than a 4th liner, but I've come around to him being more than capable of that role. Kopecky's got just enough talent that he is more than what most teams skate on their 4th, and most important, he's finally learned and accepted his role. The stepped up physical presence and energy level, a nice confidence-building hot streak, and hos playoff experience with the Wings actually makes me appreciate what he could bring this post-season.
Rounding out the fourth line is Eager. Many view him as nothing but a bruiser - that's a mistake. Yeah, he does take too many penalties - but the fact is that he's a very good skater, surprisingly intelligent (not in how he takes penalties - there he's an idiot), and has legit hockey skills. His 7 goals, 9 assists, and +9 were no fluke. The guy is a positive impact on the ice. Together, these three have really taken their game to another level and should wreak some havoc in their limited ice time, as no team is prepared to deal with a genuine puck possession and scoring threat from the 4th line.
Depth Forwards:
Rounding out the Hawks forwards will be Burish and Bickell. I really like both of these guys and am happy they are around for post-season depth. Guys get banged up in the playoffs - it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of these guys saw some game action. Or JQ might just feel his team needs a bit of a spark at some point and he'll inject one of these guys into the 4th line for some energy. I'd prefer to see Bickell fill a spot on a 2nd or 3rd line if an injury requires it, while Burish would be my choice to inject energy on the 4th line if the team hits a rough patch. Those are nice fall-back options to have.
Defensively, the Hawks have been in a better spot. They still have a solid defensive core and it still should be enough to handle the underwhelming offense that is the Nashville Predators, but the injuries have taken their toll.
Funny how the much-maligned Campbell has been shown to be so valuable. While he's overpaid (damn you front office for not understanding the 12-year contract concept at the time!), it's not by nearly as much as everyone thought. I've long been saying that and this last month without him has proven it to be true. Campbell is an asset on both ends of the ice, a rare guy capable of skating the puck into the offensive zone - so key to a puck-possession, offensively-gifted team like the Hawks. And we're now learning that he really did use his speed and hockey sense to be a plus defender.
With 7 goals, 31 assists, and an impressive +18 in only 68 games, Campbell made his mark this year. The hope - he's back to do further damage next round. If he returns, and at full speed, the Hawks should be OK, maybe even better off for having developed some other D options in the meantime. But if he's not, I fear for this team. They can still do it, but it will be far harder without the Ginger Kid.
About the last guy anyone would have expected for us to feel a longing for is Johnsson. Not that he's bad, it's just that we barely knew him (he only played 7 games w/ the Hawks), and what we did know of him was quiet and steady, not seemingly high impact. But again, once something's gone you tend to notice it's absence. KJ has most certainly been that - there's no question the Hawks will be a far better team when he's able to skate 20 minutes. The guy is a proven NHL blueliner, capable of being a Top 4 and playing on both special teams. With his return, with or without Campbell, the Hawks d-men all slot into more doable roles.
When will KJ return? I still have no idea. I haven't seen any reports that he's even skated. Concussions are bad news and his obviously is a doozy. For now, you just gotta figure that like Campbell, the hope is he'll be here in Round 2, when he's really needed.
First Pairing:
That leaves a hell of a lot of pressure on Keith. At one point a favorite for the Norris, I'd be happy if he's just among the three finalists. He's got the two-way numbers to get the nod - 14 G, 55 A, and a +21 - but you never know how this stuff works. Best thing I can say about Keith is similar to what I said about Toews - he proved his true worth in the Olympics. On the best team among the best skaters in the whole world, no Olympic skater was trusted with more ice time than Keith. You'd figure with the depth as Canada had that wouldn't have been the case, but the guy is just that good in every aspect. And he's a machine, capable of playing insane minutes night in and night out.
Sure, he struggled a bit this season while the Hawks went through a bit of a mid-season malaise. But some of that was due to the really poor play of his partner and some was just the expected ups-and-downs even the best players go through over the course of a long, demanding season. The league's ice time leader, Keith will be called on for huge minutes all post-season. Who will be skating next to him is the big question.
Of late, it's been Byfuglien, but will that hold in the playoffs? Do you really want Buff up against the teams top line every night? Against the Preds, you might be able to get away with it, given their lack of a true hot octane scoring line. It seems this is the way JQ is gonna go - he's had plenty of chances to change the pairings, but mostly has kept Buff with Keith.
Second Pairing:
The only likely alternative would be to put Seabrook and Keith back together. Keith hasn't skated much with anyone else, so JQ's only other option is pairing guys who clearly know each other and can skate together well. Yes, Seabrook did go through a long stretch of very bad play. And yes, he seemed to come out of it after being separated from Keith.
But still, the guy had 4 goals, 26 assists, and was a +20 - tops among Hawks defensemen. He's clearly playing good hockey now and it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a shut-down pairing like Keith and Seabrook to call on in the playoffs, especially once Campbell and/or Johnsson come back to bolster the rest of the corps.
The other rock JQ has to work off on the blueline is Hjalmarsson. Like Campbell and KJ, this kid has had his perceived value skyrocket due to the recent injuries. As everyone else seemed to be struggling to new roles and demands, the Hammer remained as steady as ever. How key was it that even in the worst of days, JQ could throw out one pairing with Keith and one with the Hammer and know he was covered in both cases? 2 goals, 15 assists, and a +9 sound ok, but just watch him - he doesn't make mistakes and finds his way into big stops all the time.
Me? I'm going with Seabrook and Keith, then putting Buff with the Hammer. That not only gives you that shutdown pair as I discussed above, but I think Buff and Hammer would work well together. Hammer is a stay-at-home type, while Buff likes to be aggressive with the puck. Hammer is steady and probably makes the least mistakes of any blueliner, while Buff is unproven and can be expected to make the most.
It's doubtful JQ will go this route after not pairing them together at all to end the regular season, but I'm gonna be pulling for it. If he keeps Seabrook with the Hammer, he's got to very similar styles - both stay-at-home types not overly comfortable skating the puck - but he also has two very reliable defense-first guys he can throw out against anyone.
Third Pairing:
In the final pairing, I've been calling all year for more Hendry. And in just 43 games - not all of them on D - he's put up a respectable +5. He's shown speed, good sense, nice work with the puck - everything I'd hope for out of a fifth or sixth blueliner. When the Hawks finally get both Campbell and KJ back, I hope Hendry remains in the lineup - I think he's definitely played well enough to deserve it.
I know I'd feel a lot more comfortable with him getting 15 minutes a night than Sopel. While Sopel has definitely stepped up to prove himself a respectably reliable defender during this injury spree (bringing his plus minus up to a +3), he still is too slow and makes too many mistakes with the puck. We can survive with him in there, especially against a team like the Preds, but once we get into the real skating teams, I want this guy as nothing more than injury depth. In the meantime, I'll respect his veteran acumen and his complete disregard of his body when blocking shots, as enough of an asset on the blueline.
Depth Blueliners:
Finally we've got Boynton - god help us all if he sees ice time. No knock on him - he was serviceable in his 7 games with the Hawks. Just that if we lose one more defender, we are in real trouble. We've already lucked into Buff making a tremendous transition back there - we can't hope to survive much more than a game or two if we lose any of our Top 4 guys. This guy can probably cover for Hendry or Sopel, but any of the others... let's not think about it.
Goalies:
So that brings us to the net. I would have thought this would be a much more in-depth section, but there's not a lot to say. The Frenchman is rightfully glued to the bench and Niemi has held his own since earning the job. How we got here doesn't matter - I'm just happy we did. The entire time I just wanted someone to win the spot with enough time to get into a groove and build some confidence. Mission accomplished.
Niemi's numbers are good - 2.25 GAA (4th best in hockey) and a .912 save percentage (19th). But what really sticks out to me are his 7 shutouts (4th) in only 35 starts and his ridiculous .813 save percentage in 32 shoot-out chances.
I take two things from those last two numbers:
1) We can count on Niemi to throw one shut-out per series. For a team as good as the Hawks, for your goaltender to steal you one game every series, you're in a really, really good spot.
2) When the stakes are at their highest, Niemi is gonna bring his A game.
I know shoot-outs don't happen in the post-season and even penalty shots are wicked rare, but it's not the specific skill as much as the mindset that I appreciate with Niemi. When he was left all alone, with the very game on the line - that's when he played his very best.
So I'm hanging my hat on those numbers and feeling good about Niemi. Sure he's never done it before, but we've seen plenty of unproven netminders get their team to or even win the Cup.
And know what - if Niemi gets hurt or flames out, I won't have lost all hope. I'd be plenty fearful of Huet, but the guy has proven over a long, productive career that he is a plus goaltender at the NHL level. Why couldn't he luck into a hot streak when called upon randomly? He would be far from the first goalie to do so in NHL playoff history. Far from it.
And most of these cinderella goalie stories didn't involve a team with as good of an offense, as talented of a defense, and as strong of a system as the Hawks do. Throw in the greatest fans and the best stadium in the world and we're talking about a team that has every reason to win the whole damn thing.
In brief, the Hawks were 2nd in the league in wins, 3rd in points, 3rd in goals, and 5th in goals against. Their power play was middle of the pack, their penalty kill one of the very best in the league (when you factor in short-handed goals... which absolutely should be factored in). And most impressive, they were #1 in shots/game, #1 in shots against/game, and no one came anywhere near the 9 shot advantage they averaged. In all, they were a force in all three zones, a team as well-rounded as any in all of hockey.
I figure I'll break this down by lines and pairings, as that'll help us get an idea of what we'll probably see (customary qualification - JQ loves line-changing almost as much as he loves giving Mustache Rides, so who really knows who will skate together).
First Line:
Toews ended up missing 6 games but saw his assist total (43), plus/minus (+22), and face-off percentage (57.4%) all jump from last year, when he played the full 82. He did drop from 34 goals to 25, but with five other guys breaking 20 goals and two more netting 17, Toews didn't need to score more. Instead, what will mark Toews' regular season had nothing to do with any of his numbers - it was his performance in the Olympics, where he showed himself to be the best player on the best team in the world.
For the Hawks to win the Cup, Toews is going to have to approach the Stanley Cup playoffs in the same way he did that tournament. Quietly, Captain Serious ensured that every time he was on the ice, his line was the best out there. While Madden and Bolland can do great work against any line, Toews is going to have to elevate when the Hawks face squads like the Wings, Sharks, Penguins, and Caps, all of whom get scoring from throughout their lineup.
To help him do so, Toews will have the nastiest pair of two-way players he could imagine. Hossa was everything he was advertised to be and more. In only 57 games (essentially 2/3 of the year), he racked up 24 goals, 27 assists, and was a +24, tops among all Hawks. 5x5, 4x4, power play, short-handed - whatever the set-up, this guy was a beast in all three zones. If it's in the game, Hossa does it well. That kind of well-rounded player is only that much more important in the post-season.
Sharp was no slouch himself, posting career highs in assists (41) and plus/minus (team high 24), while also proving that he could be a fully capable center (winning 51.7% of his draws). Just like Toews and Hossa, but with much less fanfare, Sharp can do it all. He's always been a sniper (25 goals this year, posted 36 two years back) but now he's rounded out his play-making ability. In addition, his speed and tenacity have always made him a plus defender.
Together, this line is an instant power-play. They dominate the puck, create loads of great chances, and absolutely wear out the other teams checking line and top pairing. To keep this line from beating you just by itself requires the best of the best from the other team. And that leaves the rest of the Hawks' lines in a great spot.
Second Line:
The biggest question mark for the Hawks forwards at this point is their second line. Bolland's injury was a bigger blow than everyone realized - not because of his loss, which our depth easily covered for. But because Bolland's development was stunted and he wasn't able to mesh with any wingers to provide a legit 2nd line. His numbers bear it out - in 39 games, he had only 6 goals, 10 assists, and was a +5, despite skating with guys like Hossa, Sharp, and Kane. One bright spot - he took a big step forward in the face-off circle, winning 49.4% of his draws.
However, JQ might be on to something in pairing Kane with Bolland. As complete as the first line skaters are, none of them are as offensively gifted as Kane. None of them elevate the play of everyone around him as Kane does. His numbers speak to that - a team leading 30 goals and 58 assists. If any one Hawk skater can create a legit 2nd line by himself, it's Kane. Bolland is a plus defender and capable enough scorer/playmaker to capitalize on playing with Kane. Together, and given the attention the top line will receive, this line might just get it done.
But to do so, I'm calling out the importance of Brouwer. I've made clear I've eaten my crow with this kid - he's become the strong garbage goal scorer we were promised he would be. He's physical and gives full effort, and certainly can handle himself defensively. Grouped with Kane and Toews, he was the perfect compliment - doing the dirty work to free them up and then burying the chances they created. His 22 goals, 18 assists, and +9 speak to that.
Since that line was broken up, Brouwer has quieted a bit. However, for the Hawks to have a legit 2nd line, Brouwer and Bolland need to step back up. I have every faith in both of them giving full effort, being physical, and playing great in their own end. It's going to come down to handling the puck and scoring - they've got to keep possessions going to allow Kane to create chances, and then they've got to turn those chances into regular goals. If this happens, the Hawks will be near impossible to hang with for even the most explosive offensive squads.
Checking Line:
As good as Madden has been, now is the time of year we're paying him for. The guy has the ring, he's been an integral part of a championship team. He's been through the battles many times, playing the same key role in each - that of shut-down center. As he's shown us, Madden is up to the challenge. His 10 goals and 13 assists don't speak to that, nor does his -2. His 53.7% success rate in the face-off circle does, but really you've got to see him play to appreciate the way he disrupts the other team's top line.
And there are no two other guys I'd rather have charged with this huge responsibility than the two linemates JQ has found for Madden. Versteeg has long had a dear place in my heart - while he went through a nice long stretch without much productivity and with a big slip in his play, I still saw more than enough to be encouraged. If you were paying attention, the guy just wasn't catching the breaks. He also was making a lot of mistakes, but some of that was pressing because luck was against him. I can't tell you how many great plays of his were stopped by good defense, poor play of linemates, or just the dumb luck of hitting a crossbar or something.
But Versteeg has since bounced back, amassed another solid year with 20 goals and 24 assists to go along with his +8. And alongside Madden, he's shown himself a highly capable checking line wing. He's always been a solid defender, with good speed and tenacity that belies his size. But Versteeg brings a bit of playmaking rarely found on a checking line, which not only creates scoring chances but also forces the other team's top line to play in all three zones.
Rounding out this line is the under-appreciated Ladd, whose 17 goals and 21 assists were quiet and important, alongside his +2. Big, physical, and a very smart defender, Ladd is a beautiful compliment to any line, but I've always thought he'd do his best work on a shutdown line. That's where JQ has him now and I really like the look of it. He brings the size you want, the defensive athleticism you need, and can also be dangerous offensively - key with a guy like Versteeg skating alongside.
In the playoffs, the checking line sees a lot of time - especially on the road - and I think these guys will do a hell of a job with all that ice time.
Fourth Line:
There were calls early that the fourth line had been a bit of a disappointment this season, but I felt that was because we really didn't have a true fourth line. With all the injuries and whatnot, JQ was constantly juggling different guys through there, including defensemen. Now that he's settled into a single group, the line has taken off.
I'm pumped that it's done so with Frasier at the helm. A recent scoring barage brought his season totals up to 7 goals, 12 assists, and a +6. Wow. Sure, were not looking for a lot of offense out of this line, but it's awesome when it comes. When they're doing their actual job, this line is about high energy, good puck possession, physical play. Frasier has been a driving force as the center. I'd like to see him continue to improve on his 48.8% face-off percentage, but he's getting there.
On his wing has been another surprise - Kopecky, who came in as someone with possible 2nd or 3rd line potential, only to look like a press box attendee. But of late he's made his mark, to the final tune of 10 goals, 11 assists, and an even plus/minus (a big improvement over where he spent most of the year). I have zero faith he'll ever be more than a 4th liner, but I've come around to him being more than capable of that role. Kopecky's got just enough talent that he is more than what most teams skate on their 4th, and most important, he's finally learned and accepted his role. The stepped up physical presence and energy level, a nice confidence-building hot streak, and hos playoff experience with the Wings actually makes me appreciate what he could bring this post-season.
Rounding out the fourth line is Eager. Many view him as nothing but a bruiser - that's a mistake. Yeah, he does take too many penalties - but the fact is that he's a very good skater, surprisingly intelligent (not in how he takes penalties - there he's an idiot), and has legit hockey skills. His 7 goals, 9 assists, and +9 were no fluke. The guy is a positive impact on the ice. Together, these three have really taken their game to another level and should wreak some havoc in their limited ice time, as no team is prepared to deal with a genuine puck possession and scoring threat from the 4th line.
Depth Forwards:
Rounding out the Hawks forwards will be Burish and Bickell. I really like both of these guys and am happy they are around for post-season depth. Guys get banged up in the playoffs - it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of these guys saw some game action. Or JQ might just feel his team needs a bit of a spark at some point and he'll inject one of these guys into the 4th line for some energy. I'd prefer to see Bickell fill a spot on a 2nd or 3rd line if an injury requires it, while Burish would be my choice to inject energy on the 4th line if the team hits a rough patch. Those are nice fall-back options to have.
Defensively, the Hawks have been in a better spot. They still have a solid defensive core and it still should be enough to handle the underwhelming offense that is the Nashville Predators, but the injuries have taken their toll.
Funny how the much-maligned Campbell has been shown to be so valuable. While he's overpaid (damn you front office for not understanding the 12-year contract concept at the time!), it's not by nearly as much as everyone thought. I've long been saying that and this last month without him has proven it to be true. Campbell is an asset on both ends of the ice, a rare guy capable of skating the puck into the offensive zone - so key to a puck-possession, offensively-gifted team like the Hawks. And we're now learning that he really did use his speed and hockey sense to be a plus defender.
With 7 goals, 31 assists, and an impressive +18 in only 68 games, Campbell made his mark this year. The hope - he's back to do further damage next round. If he returns, and at full speed, the Hawks should be OK, maybe even better off for having developed some other D options in the meantime. But if he's not, I fear for this team. They can still do it, but it will be far harder without the Ginger Kid.
About the last guy anyone would have expected for us to feel a longing for is Johnsson. Not that he's bad, it's just that we barely knew him (he only played 7 games w/ the Hawks), and what we did know of him was quiet and steady, not seemingly high impact. But again, once something's gone you tend to notice it's absence. KJ has most certainly been that - there's no question the Hawks will be a far better team when he's able to skate 20 minutes. The guy is a proven NHL blueliner, capable of being a Top 4 and playing on both special teams. With his return, with or without Campbell, the Hawks d-men all slot into more doable roles.
When will KJ return? I still have no idea. I haven't seen any reports that he's even skated. Concussions are bad news and his obviously is a doozy. For now, you just gotta figure that like Campbell, the hope is he'll be here in Round 2, when he's really needed.
First Pairing:
That leaves a hell of a lot of pressure on Keith. At one point a favorite for the Norris, I'd be happy if he's just among the three finalists. He's got the two-way numbers to get the nod - 14 G, 55 A, and a +21 - but you never know how this stuff works. Best thing I can say about Keith is similar to what I said about Toews - he proved his true worth in the Olympics. On the best team among the best skaters in the whole world, no Olympic skater was trusted with more ice time than Keith. You'd figure with the depth as Canada had that wouldn't have been the case, but the guy is just that good in every aspect. And he's a machine, capable of playing insane minutes night in and night out.
Sure, he struggled a bit this season while the Hawks went through a bit of a mid-season malaise. But some of that was due to the really poor play of his partner and some was just the expected ups-and-downs even the best players go through over the course of a long, demanding season. The league's ice time leader, Keith will be called on for huge minutes all post-season. Who will be skating next to him is the big question.
Of late, it's been Byfuglien, but will that hold in the playoffs? Do you really want Buff up against the teams top line every night? Against the Preds, you might be able to get away with it, given their lack of a true hot octane scoring line. It seems this is the way JQ is gonna go - he's had plenty of chances to change the pairings, but mostly has kept Buff with Keith.
Second Pairing:
The only likely alternative would be to put Seabrook and Keith back together. Keith hasn't skated much with anyone else, so JQ's only other option is pairing guys who clearly know each other and can skate together well. Yes, Seabrook did go through a long stretch of very bad play. And yes, he seemed to come out of it after being separated from Keith.
But still, the guy had 4 goals, 26 assists, and was a +20 - tops among Hawks defensemen. He's clearly playing good hockey now and it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a shut-down pairing like Keith and Seabrook to call on in the playoffs, especially once Campbell and/or Johnsson come back to bolster the rest of the corps.
The other rock JQ has to work off on the blueline is Hjalmarsson. Like Campbell and KJ, this kid has had his perceived value skyrocket due to the recent injuries. As everyone else seemed to be struggling to new roles and demands, the Hammer remained as steady as ever. How key was it that even in the worst of days, JQ could throw out one pairing with Keith and one with the Hammer and know he was covered in both cases? 2 goals, 15 assists, and a +9 sound ok, but just watch him - he doesn't make mistakes and finds his way into big stops all the time.
Me? I'm going with Seabrook and Keith, then putting Buff with the Hammer. That not only gives you that shutdown pair as I discussed above, but I think Buff and Hammer would work well together. Hammer is a stay-at-home type, while Buff likes to be aggressive with the puck. Hammer is steady and probably makes the least mistakes of any blueliner, while Buff is unproven and can be expected to make the most.
It's doubtful JQ will go this route after not pairing them together at all to end the regular season, but I'm gonna be pulling for it. If he keeps Seabrook with the Hammer, he's got to very similar styles - both stay-at-home types not overly comfortable skating the puck - but he also has two very reliable defense-first guys he can throw out against anyone.
Third Pairing:
In the final pairing, I've been calling all year for more Hendry. And in just 43 games - not all of them on D - he's put up a respectable +5. He's shown speed, good sense, nice work with the puck - everything I'd hope for out of a fifth or sixth blueliner. When the Hawks finally get both Campbell and KJ back, I hope Hendry remains in the lineup - I think he's definitely played well enough to deserve it.
I know I'd feel a lot more comfortable with him getting 15 minutes a night than Sopel. While Sopel has definitely stepped up to prove himself a respectably reliable defender during this injury spree (bringing his plus minus up to a +3), he still is too slow and makes too many mistakes with the puck. We can survive with him in there, especially against a team like the Preds, but once we get into the real skating teams, I want this guy as nothing more than injury depth. In the meantime, I'll respect his veteran acumen and his complete disregard of his body when blocking shots, as enough of an asset on the blueline.
Depth Blueliners:
Finally we've got Boynton - god help us all if he sees ice time. No knock on him - he was serviceable in his 7 games with the Hawks. Just that if we lose one more defender, we are in real trouble. We've already lucked into Buff making a tremendous transition back there - we can't hope to survive much more than a game or two if we lose any of our Top 4 guys. This guy can probably cover for Hendry or Sopel, but any of the others... let's not think about it.
Goalies:
So that brings us to the net. I would have thought this would be a much more in-depth section, but there's not a lot to say. The Frenchman is rightfully glued to the bench and Niemi has held his own since earning the job. How we got here doesn't matter - I'm just happy we did. The entire time I just wanted someone to win the spot with enough time to get into a groove and build some confidence. Mission accomplished.
Niemi's numbers are good - 2.25 GAA (4th best in hockey) and a .912 save percentage (19th). But what really sticks out to me are his 7 shutouts (4th) in only 35 starts and his ridiculous .813 save percentage in 32 shoot-out chances.
I take two things from those last two numbers:
1) We can count on Niemi to throw one shut-out per series. For a team as good as the Hawks, for your goaltender to steal you one game every series, you're in a really, really good spot.
2) When the stakes are at their highest, Niemi is gonna bring his A game.
I know shoot-outs don't happen in the post-season and even penalty shots are wicked rare, but it's not the specific skill as much as the mindset that I appreciate with Niemi. When he was left all alone, with the very game on the line - that's when he played his very best.
So I'm hanging my hat on those numbers and feeling good about Niemi. Sure he's never done it before, but we've seen plenty of unproven netminders get their team to or even win the Cup.
And know what - if Niemi gets hurt or flames out, I won't have lost all hope. I'd be plenty fearful of Huet, but the guy has proven over a long, productive career that he is a plus goaltender at the NHL level. Why couldn't he luck into a hot streak when called upon randomly? He would be far from the first goalie to do so in NHL playoff history. Far from it.
And most of these cinderella goalie stories didn't involve a team with as good of an offense, as talented of a defense, and as strong of a system as the Hawks do. Throw in the greatest fans and the best stadium in the world and we're talking about a team that has every reason to win the whole damn thing.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Sox + Cubs = Hawks?
So last week I got into a bit of a Sox Fan-Cubs Fan pissing match... over the Blackhawks. Somehow it made sense.
My contention - Cubs fans have brought their full stock of intractable pessimism to their Blackhawks fandom, resulting in a completely undeserved level of heightened anxiety and naysaying from Hawk Nation this season.
Look, I'm not trying to take shots at Cubs fans here. You absolutely SHOULD be pessimistic about everything to do with that team. They are the single least successful team in all of North American pro sports. No other franchise is even close. And they have no excuse - they spend like crazy ($140M payroll the past two seasons), they feature absurdly accomplished Hall of Famers (Maddux and Sosa), they bring in the top free agents (Soriano for $138M), and they develop electrifying can't miss prospects (Wood and Prior). Yet all of those things only end in disaster.
Those $140M payrolls? A second straight playoff sweep followed by a fade into Bolivian. Maddux and Sosa? One will be remembered as a Brave, the other as the face of the worst era in the game's history. Soriano? Gone from a star to a decent player to a giant hole... all while his salary is going up and up. Wood and Prior? An overpaid middling reliever and a grocery store clerk somewhere.
I know this is all a bit off-topic in a Hawks blog, but I want to make clear that I dig why Cubs fans are so negative. Why they are so quick to believe that the wheels are coming off at every turn, why they are so apt to see legit problems where only minor hiccups exist. I don't blame you - being a Cubs fan is the worst mix of engendering an incredible level of love and dedication while being heart-broken and let down at every turn.
But newsflash - the CUBS AND THE HAWKS ARE TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT ENTITIES.
I know, shocking revelation, but to Cubs fans, it is. How else can you explain the dispair that's accompanied this Hawks team, despite what they've actually done? There's no question a bunch of Cubs fans (not all, and certainly not only) have brought and undeserved negativity to their rooting interest this season.
Let's look at the actual facts of what this Hawks team is about right now:
In 2007-2008, the Hawks surprised everyone by competing for a playoff spot until the final days, following a half decade of being unwatchable crap.
In 2008-2009, the Hawks surprised everyone by making it all the way to the Conference Finals before losing to a highly accomplished powerhouse team.
In 2009-2010, the Hawks have done nearly everything they could have to this point - controlling their own destiny for the #1 seed in the West.
The front office is helmed by one of the greatest hockey minds in the game (Stan Bowman). They've been successful in putting together a team that features four different players who are as good as almost anyone in the league - Hossa, Toews, Kane, and Keith - and a collection of talent so rich that if every player were to get their full market worth, the Hawks would be laughably over the salary cap (a situation we'll experience this off-season).
Ownership has not only spent every penny the cap allows, but even manipulated the system with Hossa's contract and by sending players up and down on a daily basis to go above and beyond what is expected. In the past two years they've signed the top goalie, defenseman, and forward on the free agent market while also locking up their top three young stars for the next half decade. And in each of the past two seasons they've traded for a solid veteran piece to solidify the team for a deep playoff run.
Plain and simply, the Hawks organization resembles the Cubs organization in only two areas - calling Chicago their home and doing a great job marketing themselves.
In all other respects, at this point the Hawks have done every single thing you would have expected from the very best organizations in pro sports. They've spent money, they've accumulated talent, and they've won over and over again. Yes, they need a Cup to seal the deal, but they only now are entering their window of opportunity.
There should be NO inherent pessimism with this club - they've earned nothing but your faith and support. Sure, bitch about the poor decision to sign Huet and the lack of foresight to give Campbell an 8-year deal instead of a more cap friendly 12-year one. Sure, express concern about having an unproven goaltender in the playoffs. Sure, wonder what's changed between the domination of November and December to the just-good-enough play of January and February to the disaster that was March.
But there's a way to criticize and wonder about the club (it's pretty much half the point of this blog) without whining doom and gloom every time something doesn't go exactly perfect for the Hawks.
Back in December I was at the game against the Sharks where we dominated the play (out-shooting them 47-14) and yet lost 3-2. This was at the peak of our dominance, and yet all game long the crowd around me couldn't have been more whiny. We were toying with the best team in hockey at the time, a slew of bad bounces all that kept it from being a laugher, and yet every little thing brought complaints from the crowd. Shoot more. Hustle more. Goal-keeping sucks. Defense can't stop anyone.
We out-shot them 47-14. We completely outplayed them. In the playoffs, if you do that every night, you will hoist the Cup w/o much drama along the way. Yet the crowd could not have been quicker to be negative. The whole tone was awful - I enjoyed the game less than had I been surrounded by a bunch of Shark fans.
Obviously, this negativity all only got worse as the Hawks "struggled." I use quotes because the Hawks won 10 of their 15 games in January and pointed in 12. They won 4 of their 6 games in February and pointed in 5. That is an impressive clip. It might not have looked pretty, but there's no column for beauty in the standings.
Yes, from March 7th (a loss to the Wings) to March 30th (a loss to the Blues), the Hawks did suck, winning only 4 times in 12 outings. But guess how many teams have gone through an entire regular and post season in hockey without one bad stretch? I'll give you a hint - it's the same amount of World Series titles the Cubs have in the last century.
The point to all of this? There was no reason to ever be on the ledge with this team. Even during their struggles in March, they had some injuries to point to and plenty of time to get their game back. Hell, even if they had struggled straight through the end of the regular season, that still wouldn't have meant panic time.
What happens come the playoffs is only sort of related to the regular season. Does it help to be hot going in? Sure, but it's no guarantee. Does it hurt to be cold going in? Sure, but it's not gonna automatically sink you.
When you're a team like the Hawks, who've played hockey about as good as anyone since the start of last season, you can have faith that when the puck drops in Game 1, you'll be ready. You have the talent, the system, and the experience to win any game, any series, at any time. So yes I'd rather be hot than cold, but it isn't making a major difference in my belief in this team. They've done too much for too long for me to allow a very standard and expected stretch of bad play to dissuade me of their chances.
The good news? This long rant is falling on some very receptive ears right now, thanks to the great play of the Hawks of late. The biggest source of whining and pessimism has suddenly turned into the most exciting aspect of the team - the play of Uncle Niemi. The defense, missing two top players (Campbell and Johnsson) and with another having struggled mightily this year (Seabrook), somehow is finding a way to get it done. And the offense, despite the never-ending line dancing, continues to get contributions from top to bottom (Kopecky, really? Who knew?).
I was hoping to write all of this last week, when everyone was on the ledge and felt justified in their lack of faith, so that I could look like a genius when the team did finally get it going. Whatever - I firmly believed it then (it's what inspired my Sox Fan-Cub Fan pissing match) and I'm writing it now.
Moving forward, nothing will change from my perspective. The Hawks could struggle this week, blow their shot at the #1 seed, enter the playoffs looking iffy, and worst of all, Niemi could go back to being a giant question mark.
Me - I'm still having faith that we're taking that first series.
Say we lose Game 1, even Game 2? Me? Still thinking we're the better team, fully capable of winning on the road against a lesser opponent, most especially when the stakes have been raised.
I'm an optimist, which helps. But more importantly, I'm a fan of one of the most-talented, best-run, most-accomplished teams in the NHL right now, so the odds of success are almost always gonna be in my favor. And that's something I'm not gonna let a few expected stumbles or the presence of a moribund baseball franchise allow me to forget.
My contention - Cubs fans have brought their full stock of intractable pessimism to their Blackhawks fandom, resulting in a completely undeserved level of heightened anxiety and naysaying from Hawk Nation this season.
Look, I'm not trying to take shots at Cubs fans here. You absolutely SHOULD be pessimistic about everything to do with that team. They are the single least successful team in all of North American pro sports. No other franchise is even close. And they have no excuse - they spend like crazy ($140M payroll the past two seasons), they feature absurdly accomplished Hall of Famers (Maddux and Sosa), they bring in the top free agents (Soriano for $138M), and they develop electrifying can't miss prospects (Wood and Prior). Yet all of those things only end in disaster.
Those $140M payrolls? A second straight playoff sweep followed by a fade into Bolivian. Maddux and Sosa? One will be remembered as a Brave, the other as the face of the worst era in the game's history. Soriano? Gone from a star to a decent player to a giant hole... all while his salary is going up and up. Wood and Prior? An overpaid middling reliever and a grocery store clerk somewhere.
I know this is all a bit off-topic in a Hawks blog, but I want to make clear that I dig why Cubs fans are so negative. Why they are so quick to believe that the wheels are coming off at every turn, why they are so apt to see legit problems where only minor hiccups exist. I don't blame you - being a Cubs fan is the worst mix of engendering an incredible level of love and dedication while being heart-broken and let down at every turn.
But newsflash - the CUBS AND THE HAWKS ARE TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT ENTITIES.
I know, shocking revelation, but to Cubs fans, it is. How else can you explain the dispair that's accompanied this Hawks team, despite what they've actually done? There's no question a bunch of Cubs fans (not all, and certainly not only) have brought and undeserved negativity to their rooting interest this season.
Let's look at the actual facts of what this Hawks team is about right now:
In 2007-2008, the Hawks surprised everyone by competing for a playoff spot until the final days, following a half decade of being unwatchable crap.
In 2008-2009, the Hawks surprised everyone by making it all the way to the Conference Finals before losing to a highly accomplished powerhouse team.
In 2009-2010, the Hawks have done nearly everything they could have to this point - controlling their own destiny for the #1 seed in the West.
The front office is helmed by one of the greatest hockey minds in the game (Stan Bowman). They've been successful in putting together a team that features four different players who are as good as almost anyone in the league - Hossa, Toews, Kane, and Keith - and a collection of talent so rich that if every player were to get their full market worth, the Hawks would be laughably over the salary cap (a situation we'll experience this off-season).
Ownership has not only spent every penny the cap allows, but even manipulated the system with Hossa's contract and by sending players up and down on a daily basis to go above and beyond what is expected. In the past two years they've signed the top goalie, defenseman, and forward on the free agent market while also locking up their top three young stars for the next half decade. And in each of the past two seasons they've traded for a solid veteran piece to solidify the team for a deep playoff run.
Plain and simply, the Hawks organization resembles the Cubs organization in only two areas - calling Chicago their home and doing a great job marketing themselves.
In all other respects, at this point the Hawks have done every single thing you would have expected from the very best organizations in pro sports. They've spent money, they've accumulated talent, and they've won over and over again. Yes, they need a Cup to seal the deal, but they only now are entering their window of opportunity.
There should be NO inherent pessimism with this club - they've earned nothing but your faith and support. Sure, bitch about the poor decision to sign Huet and the lack of foresight to give Campbell an 8-year deal instead of a more cap friendly 12-year one. Sure, express concern about having an unproven goaltender in the playoffs. Sure, wonder what's changed between the domination of November and December to the just-good-enough play of January and February to the disaster that was March.
But there's a way to criticize and wonder about the club (it's pretty much half the point of this blog) without whining doom and gloom every time something doesn't go exactly perfect for the Hawks.
Back in December I was at the game against the Sharks where we dominated the play (out-shooting them 47-14) and yet lost 3-2. This was at the peak of our dominance, and yet all game long the crowd around me couldn't have been more whiny. We were toying with the best team in hockey at the time, a slew of bad bounces all that kept it from being a laugher, and yet every little thing brought complaints from the crowd. Shoot more. Hustle more. Goal-keeping sucks. Defense can't stop anyone.
We out-shot them 47-14. We completely outplayed them. In the playoffs, if you do that every night, you will hoist the Cup w/o much drama along the way. Yet the crowd could not have been quicker to be negative. The whole tone was awful - I enjoyed the game less than had I been surrounded by a bunch of Shark fans.
Obviously, this negativity all only got worse as the Hawks "struggled." I use quotes because the Hawks won 10 of their 15 games in January and pointed in 12. They won 4 of their 6 games in February and pointed in 5. That is an impressive clip. It might not have looked pretty, but there's no column for beauty in the standings.
Yes, from March 7th (a loss to the Wings) to March 30th (a loss to the Blues), the Hawks did suck, winning only 4 times in 12 outings. But guess how many teams have gone through an entire regular and post season in hockey without one bad stretch? I'll give you a hint - it's the same amount of World Series titles the Cubs have in the last century.
The point to all of this? There was no reason to ever be on the ledge with this team. Even during their struggles in March, they had some injuries to point to and plenty of time to get their game back. Hell, even if they had struggled straight through the end of the regular season, that still wouldn't have meant panic time.
What happens come the playoffs is only sort of related to the regular season. Does it help to be hot going in? Sure, but it's no guarantee. Does it hurt to be cold going in? Sure, but it's not gonna automatically sink you.
When you're a team like the Hawks, who've played hockey about as good as anyone since the start of last season, you can have faith that when the puck drops in Game 1, you'll be ready. You have the talent, the system, and the experience to win any game, any series, at any time. So yes I'd rather be hot than cold, but it isn't making a major difference in my belief in this team. They've done too much for too long for me to allow a very standard and expected stretch of bad play to dissuade me of their chances.
The good news? This long rant is falling on some very receptive ears right now, thanks to the great play of the Hawks of late. The biggest source of whining and pessimism has suddenly turned into the most exciting aspect of the team - the play of Uncle Niemi. The defense, missing two top players (Campbell and Johnsson) and with another having struggled mightily this year (Seabrook), somehow is finding a way to get it done. And the offense, despite the never-ending line dancing, continues to get contributions from top to bottom (Kopecky, really? Who knew?).
I was hoping to write all of this last week, when everyone was on the ledge and felt justified in their lack of faith, so that I could look like a genius when the team did finally get it going. Whatever - I firmly believed it then (it's what inspired my Sox Fan-Cub Fan pissing match) and I'm writing it now.
Moving forward, nothing will change from my perspective. The Hawks could struggle this week, blow their shot at the #1 seed, enter the playoffs looking iffy, and worst of all, Niemi could go back to being a giant question mark.
Me - I'm still having faith that we're taking that first series.
Say we lose Game 1, even Game 2? Me? Still thinking we're the better team, fully capable of winning on the road against a lesser opponent, most especially when the stakes have been raised.
I'm an optimist, which helps. But more importantly, I'm a fan of one of the most-talented, best-run, most-accomplished teams in the NHL right now, so the odds of success are almost always gonna be in my favor. And that's something I'm not gonna let a few expected stumbles or the presence of a moribund baseball franchise allow me to forget.
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