Wednesday, April 14, 2010

"This is the end... my only friend, the end."

Quoting the Doors is probably a bit dramatic for what really isn't so much as the end of the season as the half-time before the second half of it. But whatever, that song rules and was one of the most perfectly used tunes in the history of movies. And as a preview for the second season we've got coming, I figured it'd be good to look at what everyone accomplished now that we've reached the end of the 2009-2010 NHL regular season.

In brief, the Hawks were 2nd in the league in wins, 3rd in points, 3rd in goals, and 5th in goals against. Their power play was middle of the pack, their penalty kill one of the very best in the league (when you factor in short-handed goals... which absolutely should be factored in). And most impressive, they were #1 in shots/game, #1 in shots against/game, and no one came anywhere near the 9 shot advantage they averaged. In all, they were a force in all three zones, a team as well-rounded as any in all of hockey.


I figure I'll break this down by lines and pairings, as that'll help us get an idea of what we'll probably see (customary qualification - JQ loves line-changing almost as much as he loves giving Mustache Rides, so who really knows who will skate together).

First Line:

Toews ended up missing 6 games but saw his assist total (43), plus/minus (+22), and face-off percentage (57.4%) all jump from last year, when he played the full 82. He did drop from 34 goals to 25, but with five other guys breaking 20 goals and two more netting 17, Toews didn't need to score more. Instead, what will mark Toews' regular season had nothing to do with any of his numbers - it was his performance in the Olympics, where he showed himself to be the best player on the best team in the world.

For the Hawks to win the Cup, Toews is going to have to approach the Stanley Cup playoffs in the same way he did that tournament. Quietly, Captain Serious ensured that every time he was on the ice, his line was the best out there. While Madden and Bolland can do great work against any line, Toews is going to have to elevate when the Hawks face squads like the Wings, Sharks, Penguins, and Caps, all of whom get scoring from throughout their lineup.

To help him do so, Toews will have the nastiest pair of two-way players he could imagine. Hossa was everything he was advertised to be and more. In only 57 games (essentially 2/3 of the year), he racked up 24 goals, 27 assists, and was a +24, tops among all Hawks. 5x5, 4x4, power play, short-handed - whatever the set-up, this guy was a beast in all three zones. If it's in the game, Hossa does it well. That kind of well-rounded player is only that much more important in the post-season.

Sharp was no slouch himself, posting career highs in assists (41) and plus/minus (team high 24), while also proving that he could be a fully capable center (winning 51.7% of his draws). Just like Toews and Hossa, but with much less fanfare, Sharp can do it all. He's always been a sniper (25 goals this year, posted 36 two years back) but now he's rounded out his play-making ability. In addition, his speed and tenacity have always made him a plus defender.

Together, this line is an instant power-play. They dominate the puck, create loads of great chances, and absolutely wear out the other teams checking line and top pairing. To keep this line from beating you just by itself requires the best of the best from the other team. And that leaves the rest of the Hawks' lines in a great spot.

Second Line:

The biggest question mark for the Hawks forwards at this point is their second line. Bolland's injury was a bigger blow than everyone realized - not because of his loss, which our depth easily covered for. But because Bolland's development was stunted and he wasn't able to mesh with any wingers to provide a legit 2nd line. His numbers bear it out - in 39 games, he had only 6 goals, 10 assists, and was a +5, despite skating with guys like Hossa, Sharp, and Kane. One bright spot - he took a big step forward in the face-off circle, winning 49.4% of his draws.

However, JQ might be on to something in pairing Kane with Bolland. As complete as the first line skaters are, none of them are as offensively gifted as Kane. None of them elevate the play of everyone around him as Kane does. His numbers speak to that - a team leading 30 goals and 58 assists. If any one Hawk skater can create a legit 2nd line by himself, it's Kane. Bolland is a plus defender and capable enough scorer/playmaker to capitalize on playing with Kane. Together, and given the attention the top line will receive, this line might just get it done.

But to do so, I'm calling out the importance of Brouwer. I've made clear I've eaten my crow with this kid - he's become the strong garbage goal scorer we were promised he would be. He's physical and gives full effort, and certainly can handle himself defensively. Grouped with Kane and Toews, he was the perfect compliment - doing the dirty work to free them up and then burying the chances they created. His 22 goals, 18 assists, and +9 speak to that.

Since that line was broken up, Brouwer has quieted a bit. However, for the Hawks to have a legit 2nd line, Brouwer and Bolland need to step back up. I have every faith in both of them giving full effort, being physical, and playing great in their own end. It's going to come down to handling the puck and scoring - they've got to keep possessions going to allow Kane to create chances, and then they've got to turn those chances into regular goals. If this happens, the Hawks will be near impossible to hang with for even the most explosive offensive squads.

Checking Line:

As good as Madden has been, now is the time of year we're paying him for. The guy has the ring, he's been an integral part of a championship team. He's been through the battles many times, playing the same key role in each - that of shut-down center. As he's shown us, Madden is up to the challenge. His 10 goals and 13 assists don't speak to that, nor does his -2. His 53.7% success rate in the face-off circle does, but really you've got to see him play to appreciate the way he disrupts the other team's top line.

And there are no two other guys I'd rather have charged with this huge responsibility than the two linemates JQ has found for Madden. Versteeg has long had a dear place in my heart - while he went through a nice long stretch without much productivity and with a big slip in his play, I still saw more than enough to be encouraged. If you were paying attention, the guy just wasn't catching the breaks. He also was making a lot of mistakes, but some of that was pressing because luck was against him. I can't tell you how many great plays of his were stopped by good defense, poor play of linemates, or just the dumb luck of hitting a crossbar or something.

But Versteeg has since bounced back, amassed another solid year with 20 goals and 24 assists to go along with his +8. And alongside Madden, he's shown himself a highly capable checking line wing. He's always been a solid defender, with good speed and tenacity that belies his size. But Versteeg brings a bit of playmaking rarely found on a checking line, which not only creates scoring chances but also forces the other team's top line to play in all three zones.

Rounding out this line is the under-appreciated Ladd, whose 17 goals and 21 assists were quiet and important, alongside his +2. Big, physical, and a very smart defender, Ladd is a beautiful compliment to any line, but I've always thought he'd do his best work on a shutdown line. That's where JQ has him now and I really like the look of it. He brings the size you want, the defensive athleticism you need, and can also be dangerous offensively - key with a guy like Versteeg skating alongside.

In the playoffs, the checking line sees a lot of time - especially on the road - and I think these guys will do a hell of a job with all that ice time.

Fourth Line:

There were calls early that the fourth line had been a bit of a disappointment this season, but I felt that was because we really didn't have a true fourth line. With all the injuries and whatnot, JQ was constantly juggling different guys through there, including defensemen. Now that he's settled into a single group, the line has taken off.

I'm pumped that it's done so with Frasier at the helm. A recent scoring barage brought his season totals up to 7 goals, 12 assists, and a +6. Wow. Sure, were not looking for a lot of offense out of this line, but it's awesome when it comes. When they're doing their actual job, this line is about high energy, good puck possession, physical play. Frasier has been a driving force as the center. I'd like to see him continue to improve on his 48.8% face-off percentage, but he's getting there.

On his wing has been another surprise - Kopecky, who came in as someone with possible 2nd or 3rd line potential, only to look like a press box attendee. But of late he's made his mark, to the final tune of 10 goals, 11 assists, and an even plus/minus (a big improvement over where he spent most of the year). I have zero faith he'll ever be more than a 4th liner, but I've come around to him being more than capable of that role. Kopecky's got just enough talent that he is more than what most teams skate on their 4th, and most important, he's finally learned and accepted his role. The stepped up physical presence and energy level, a nice confidence-building hot streak, and hos playoff experience with the Wings actually makes me appreciate what he could bring this post-season.

Rounding out the fourth line is Eager. Many view him as nothing but a bruiser - that's a mistake. Yeah, he does take too many penalties - but the fact is that he's a very good skater, surprisingly intelligent (not in how he takes penalties - there he's an idiot), and has legit hockey skills. His 7 goals, 9 assists, and +9 were no fluke. The guy is a positive impact on the ice. Together, these three have really taken their game to another level and should wreak some havoc in their limited ice time, as no team is prepared to deal with a genuine puck possession and scoring threat from the 4th line.

Depth Forwards:

Rounding out the Hawks forwards will be Burish and Bickell. I really like both of these guys and am happy they are around for post-season depth. Guys get banged up in the playoffs - it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of these guys saw some game action. Or JQ might just feel his team needs a bit of a spark at some point and he'll inject one of these guys into the 4th line for some energy. I'd prefer to see Bickell fill a spot on a 2nd or 3rd line if an injury requires it, while Burish would be my choice to inject energy on the 4th line if the team hits a rough patch. Those are nice fall-back options to have.


Defensively, the Hawks have been in a better spot. They still have a solid defensive core and it still should be enough to handle the underwhelming offense that is the Nashville Predators, but the injuries have taken their toll.

Funny how the much-maligned Campbell has been shown to be so valuable. While he's overpaid (damn you front office for not understanding the 12-year contract concept at the time!), it's not by nearly as much as everyone thought. I've long been saying that and this last month without him has proven it to be true. Campbell is an asset on both ends of the ice, a rare guy capable of skating the puck into the offensive zone - so key to a puck-possession, offensively-gifted team like the Hawks. And we're now learning that he really did use his speed and hockey sense to be a plus defender.

With 7 goals, 31 assists, and an impressive +18 in only 68 games, Campbell made his mark this year. The hope - he's back to do further damage next round. If he returns, and at full speed, the Hawks should be OK, maybe even better off for having developed some other D options in the meantime. But if he's not, I fear for this team. They can still do it, but it will be far harder without the Ginger Kid.

About the last guy anyone would have expected for us to feel a longing for is Johnsson. Not that he's bad, it's just that we barely knew him (he only played 7 games w/ the Hawks), and what we did know of him was quiet and steady, not seemingly high impact. But again, once something's gone you tend to notice it's absence. KJ has most certainly been that - there's no question the Hawks will be a far better team when he's able to skate 20 minutes. The guy is a proven NHL blueliner, capable of being a Top 4 and playing on both special teams. With his return, with or without Campbell, the Hawks d-men all slot into more doable roles.

When will KJ return? I still have no idea. I haven't seen any reports that he's even skated. Concussions are bad news and his obviously is a doozy. For now, you just gotta figure that like Campbell, the hope is he'll be here in Round 2, when he's really needed.

First Pairing:

That leaves a hell of a lot of pressure on Keith. At one point a favorite for the Norris, I'd be happy if he's just among the three finalists. He's got the two-way numbers to get the nod - 14 G, 55 A, and a +21 - but you never know how this stuff works. Best thing I can say about Keith is similar to what I said about Toews - he proved his true worth in the Olympics. On the best team among the best skaters in the whole world, no Olympic skater was trusted with more ice time than Keith. You'd figure with the depth as Canada had that wouldn't have been the case, but the guy is just that good in every aspect. And he's a machine, capable of playing insane minutes night in and night out.

Sure, he struggled a bit this season while the Hawks went through a bit of a mid-season malaise. But some of that was due to the really poor play of his partner and some was just the expected ups-and-downs even the best players go through over the course of a long, demanding season. The league's ice time leader, Keith will be called on for huge minutes all post-season. Who will be skating next to him is the big question.

Of late, it's been Byfuglien, but will that hold in the playoffs? Do you really want Buff up against the teams top line every night? Against the Preds, you might be able to get away with it, given their lack of a true hot octane scoring line. It seems this is the way JQ is gonna go - he's had plenty of chances to change the pairings, but mostly has kept Buff with Keith.

Second Pairing:

The only likely alternative would be to put Seabrook and Keith back together. Keith hasn't skated much with anyone else, so JQ's only other option is pairing guys who clearly know each other and can skate together well. Yes, Seabrook did go through a long stretch of very bad play. And yes, he seemed to come out of it after being separated from Keith.

But still, the guy had 4 goals, 26 assists, and was a +20 - tops among Hawks defensemen. He's clearly playing good hockey now and it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a shut-down pairing like Keith and Seabrook to call on in the playoffs, especially once Campbell and/or Johnsson come back to bolster the rest of the corps.

The other rock JQ has to work off on the blueline is Hjalmarsson. Like Campbell and KJ, this kid has had his perceived value skyrocket due to the recent injuries. As everyone else seemed to be struggling to new roles and demands, the Hammer remained as steady as ever. How key was it that even in the worst of days, JQ could throw out one pairing with Keith and one with the Hammer and know he was covered in both cases? 2 goals, 15 assists, and a +9 sound ok, but just watch him - he doesn't make mistakes and finds his way into big stops all the time.

Me? I'm going with Seabrook and Keith, then putting Buff with the Hammer. That not only gives you that shutdown pair as I discussed above, but I think Buff and Hammer would work well together. Hammer is a stay-at-home type, while Buff likes to be aggressive with the puck. Hammer is steady and probably makes the least mistakes of any blueliner, while Buff is unproven and can be expected to make the most.

It's doubtful JQ will go this route after not pairing them together at all to end the regular season, but I'm gonna be pulling for it. If he keeps Seabrook with the Hammer, he's got to very similar styles - both stay-at-home types not overly comfortable skating the puck - but he also has two very reliable defense-first guys he can throw out against anyone.

Third Pairing:

In the final pairing, I've been calling all year for more Hendry. And in just 43 games - not all of them on D - he's put up a respectable +5. He's shown speed, good sense, nice work with the puck - everything I'd hope for out of a fifth or sixth blueliner. When the Hawks finally get both Campbell and KJ back, I hope Hendry remains in the lineup - I think he's definitely played well enough to deserve it.

I know I'd feel a lot more comfortable with him getting 15 minutes a night than Sopel. While Sopel has definitely stepped up to prove himself a respectably reliable defender during this injury spree (bringing his plus minus up to a +3), he still is too slow and makes too many mistakes with the puck. We can survive with him in there, especially against a team like the Preds, but once we get into the real skating teams, I want this guy as nothing more than injury depth. In the meantime, I'll respect his veteran acumen and his complete disregard of his body when blocking shots, as enough of an asset on the blueline.

Depth Blueliners:

Finally we've got Boynton - god help us all if he sees ice time. No knock on him - he was serviceable in his 7 games with the Hawks. Just that if we lose one more defender, we are in real trouble. We've already lucked into Buff making a tremendous transition back there - we can't hope to survive much more than a game or two if we lose any of our Top 4 guys. This guy can probably cover for Hendry or Sopel, but any of the others... let's not think about it.


Goalies:

So that brings us to the net. I would have thought this would be a much more in-depth section, but there's not a lot to say. The Frenchman is rightfully glued to the bench and Niemi has held his own since earning the job. How we got here doesn't matter - I'm just happy we did. The entire time I just wanted someone to win the spot with enough time to get into a groove and build some confidence. Mission accomplished.

Niemi's numbers are good - 2.25 GAA (4th best in hockey) and a .912 save percentage (19th). But what really sticks out to me are his 7 shutouts (4th) in only 35 starts and his ridiculous .813 save percentage in 32 shoot-out chances.

I take two things from those last two numbers:

1) We can count on Niemi to throw one shut-out per series. For a team as good as the Hawks, for your goaltender to steal you one game every series, you're in a really, really good spot.

2) When the stakes are at their highest, Niemi is gonna bring his A game.

I know shoot-outs don't happen in the post-season and even penalty shots are wicked rare, but it's not the specific skill as much as the mindset that I appreciate with Niemi. When he was left all alone, with the very game on the line - that's when he played his very best.

So I'm hanging my hat on those numbers and feeling good about Niemi. Sure he's never done it before, but we've seen plenty of unproven netminders get their team to or even win the Cup.
And know what - if Niemi gets hurt or flames out, I won't have lost all hope. I'd be plenty fearful of Huet, but the guy has proven over a long, productive career that he is a plus goaltender at the NHL level. Why couldn't he luck into a hot streak when called upon randomly? He would be far from the first goalie to do so in NHL playoff history. Far from it.

And most of these cinderella goalie stories didn't involve a team with as good of an offense, as talented of a defense, and as strong of a system as the Hawks do. Throw in the greatest fans and the best stadium in the world and we're talking about a team that has every reason to win the whole damn thing.

1 comment:

  1. Dude, how long does it take you to write your blog posts? Do your wife and boss mind? I hope it's a good one because I've earmarked the third week of April as c2tI.BS.com reading time. I kid.

    ReplyDelete