A Couple Emails

A lot of what goes into my posts is influenced by the five other guys I share Hawks partial season tickets with. Actually it's only influenced by four of them - the Cheerleader is really just around for comic relief, both of his doing and at his expense. And he's named the Cheerleader because he actually was a male cheerleader in college - clearly a major source of said comic relief.

I've also referenced my Brother a few times since I started doing this, as he often has some poignant thoughts that I can run with. My recent diatribe about Cubs fans was inspired by an exchange between Out of Town Bob and Big Sexy 11. Out of Town Bob was so christened because he came down to party with my buddies in law school and decided he could act like a total idiot, because he was from out of town and wouldn't see these people ever again. And he lived up to that promise, leaving behind the legend of Out of Town Bob.

Big Sexy 11 once saved me from getting pounded in an on-ice rec league scuffle when I lost my helmet in a scrum (where I was the clear victor) and yet the refs weren't gonna step in. So when he said to me "Let's come up with a sweet nickname for myself, something like: Big Sexy 11," I was happy to oblige.

Today, I introduce the final member of our six-man group - my buddy Face. Why Face? Because I decided that he, in every way, is the guy from the A-Team. That's a high compliment by the way, as I always loved Face the most on that show.

So Face sent me an insightful email after Game 3's loss and it inspired a response from me that pretty much summed up my thoughts, so I figured I'd just post the two here.

From Face:

My dad asked me if tomorrow's game is a "must win" and if I thought we're being out-coached. Here's my answer, and I'm curious your take on my thoughts:

Someone asked if game 2 was a must win, and I said no because hockey teams can come back from down 2-0. Down 3-1 is a different story. Although anything's possible, I think that it would be very hard to come back. HOWEVER, when you have the kind of talent the Hawks have, they could do it. Conversely, imagine if the current bulls were down 3-0 or 3-1 to the Cavs (I probably should say "when" not "if"); there's no chance of a comeback because they're just getting beat by a better team.

The Hawks can come back no matter what, so I won't say it's a MUST win, but it sure as heck won't help if we don't tie up the series. Still, down 3-1, you know they'd win at the UC on Saturday, making it 3-2. If they can then win in Nashville, which is totally possible, then it's tied up. Who do you think wins a decisive game 7 at the United Center? So no, not a must win, but surely would go a long way toward helping.

Either way, this proves that every team that makes the playoffs is dangerous. It's totally different than basketball that way, but very similar to baseball. If you're in the playoffs, you're a very good team, and if on top of that your goalie is really hot, you can beat any team. Just like in baseball if you make the playoffs and have 2 starting pitcher "aces," you can win the World Series (remember Schilling & Johnson for Arizona??).

Yes, we are being out-coached. Without question. Queneville is just not pushing the right buttons. We beat them 4 out of 6 games this season, so why now do we look like a mediocre team up against an un-tamable beast?? I say the answer is we aren't being physical enough. We should look for any and every opportunity to hit these guys and get them rattled. Their neutral zone trap is killing us! We can barely get it in the zone!

We also just have to realize that we're seeing the coming out party of Pekka Rinne. He's an absolute stud, but he's never been in the playoffs before, so the hockey world is now getting to see him. In fact, have you seen the Patrick Roy commercials they show, where he makes a big save as a rookie, and it reads, "What if he had played like a rookie?" I'm thinking this is something where in a few years, the Hawks, if they lose, may be looking back and saying, "Yeah, that was before anyone knew about perennial all-star Pekka Rinne."

Very frustrating team to play against. In fact, if we somehow get past them, I think the rest of the West looks very beatable comparatively. If all we have to do is outscore a team (e.g. 6-4 type wins), we can do that. But against a stifling trapping team, we look awful.

My Response:

1) Agree that it's not a must-win, like a Game 3 where you're down 2-0 would be. As you said, the home ice, talent, and experience advantage all would allow them to win three straight without it being a miracle.

Like you laid out, I'm mad at myself for being an ignorant fan. Because the Preds didn't have a name, didn't have a story, I didn't respect them. Yes, I knew it was wholly possible the Hawks would get upset, but I pretty much allowed only two possibilities - we played as expected and trounced the Preds 4-0 or 4-1, or we lost the series.

The result of that thinking? I wasn't prepared for the much more realistic scenario that the Hawks would struggle but still win out. Losing Game 1 really threw me. It was fluky, but it still was a loss and gave the Preds all kinds of confidence. I didn't like what that portended. Taking Game 2 made me feel better, but not fully. Getting flat out beat - no bounces, no bad calls, no great tending, just flat out beat - in Game 3 really put me in a bad spot.

But why? As we're both agreeing - the Hawks could lose another and still win this thing. The simple fact is much like you said - in the NHL playoffs, you should NEVER expect anything less than a 6-game series. It may happen, but it's a fluke, the result of hot goaltending, an ideal match-up, a bunch of fortunate bounces, a banged up team, or somehow coming out on top in three or even four tight games.

So these two losses to the Preds were to be expected. Would I have preferred to win Games 1 and 2, pick up another in Nashville, and then have Game 5 be that 2nd expected loss? Sure. But who cares when they happen - in the end, the Hawks were most likely gonna lose two, and now they've done it. Nothing has happened yet that we shouldn't have expected.

I do see the Hawks bouncing back Thursday just as they bounced back in Game 2. Renewed focus, superior talent, better execution and a W to show for it. Back in the UC, with series control on the line, the Hawks finally put the Preds in their place. Game 6 is a dog fight, but the Preds are too beat up and the Hawks prevail.

We've all seen that happen plenty of times - most of the time we're rooting for the underdog (be it in basketball or hockey) and start to believe they actually have a shot, only for the favorite to show exactly why they're the favorite and piss us off (I'm thinking every Kobe-involved Lakers series ever).

This could shake out in any way, but what has happened so far doesn't have to be a harbinger of terrible things for this team. It's just as likely it's the standard challenges that go into every Cup run. Not that I'm 100% convinced it will be, but we're being the type of annoying fans we hate if we're freaking out just because we lost two games in a playoff series to a team that's playing solid hockey.


2) I do agree JQ is getting out-coached. Great call on the 4-2 record over the Preds during the season. This is not a team that should be a surprise or a challenge, yet they've been both. I said when JQ was hired that I didn't like it - he'd been around plenty and never done jack squat (one Conference Finals birth, despite years and years of 90+ point teams in Colorado and St. Louis, back when 90 points meant something).

Recently I heard a stat that said every Cup winning coach at least got to the Finals by year 7 of their career or something (I might have the specifics wrong, but you get the idea). JQ is well past that point in his career w/ a meager two (thanks to last year's run) Conference Finals births. I fear he's one of the coaches who can only take you so far - a Doug Collins, if you will. But who knows - as we agreed above, it's still VERY early in this series. No reason JQ couldn't get it back together (as he did last year) and ride this team farther than most expected (as he did last year).

But for now, I disagree with you that it's the physicality that is the issue. I actually have noticed a lot of the Hawks really going after hits. They've done well enough in front of the nets (i.e. the Preds aren't beating us because we can't clear our own crease) and along the boards. Not that we've dominated along the boards, but we've been the Preds' equals, which is a respectable commentary on their physicality, given that the Preds thrive on board play.

I think it's just poor strategy and attitude. The Hawks have faced teams trying to slow them down all year - why is this team all of the sudden giving them so many issues? Why are they the first team ever to get so many chances on the Hawks? Sure, no Johnsson and Campbell is big, but this big? Shouldn't JQ be more prepared for what everyone in the world expected from our inferior-talented first round opponent?

I also hate the Hawks attitude this series - they got down in Game 1 and Game 3, and immediately went all chicken with their heads cut off, playing in total desperation, despite the games being very winnable (down 2-1 early in the 3rd, down 3-1 midway through the 2nd against an inferior club). They got away from the style that's allowed them to dominate all year - puck possession, cycling, crisp passes, lots of shots. Instead, they just flew around like idiots, as if they were down 2 with a minute left, and played right into the Preds hands.

That's half leadership, half coaching. In both cases, the Hawks have failed. Toews, Keith, Sharp, and Hossa should have set the relaxed but determined and aggressive tone once they got down. Instead, they were a big part of the hectic chaos. I'm especially bothered by Toews and Hossa - both have missed way too many chances, done way too little this series. Hockey players are all streaky - it's only been three games and they have plenty of time to make their mark. But now's the time to do it - I've called those guys out in my mind.

And JQ is very much to blame for the desperation also - not just for failing to keep his guys properly focused, but also thanks to all of his idiotic line swapping. It was his job to get his lines set heading into the playoffs. He needed guys comfortable and familiar with each other, capable of executing the puck possession game even more demanded by the tight confines of playoff hockey.

Instead, after one game, JQ juggled things. Then midway through Game 3, he just threw organization out the window completely - there was no semblance of lines, just guys going on and off like a rat hockey session. Is it any wonder they blew off their system and just flew around like idiots? Is it any wonder they failed to get any sustained pressure?

Look, I dig that the team was going balls out - that's the way they played their best hockey last playoffs. But last year they did it within the confines of their known and familiar lines, and kept to their system. Defenders would pinch, forwards would kill themselves for possession along the boards, but it all was still with an eye on cycling the puck to the playmakers and creating opportunities. This series, it's been just desperate insanity in an effort to throw any piece of crap toward the net.


3) I disagree that Rinne is having a coming out. He's made some nice saves, but nothing more than a good NHL goalie playing well. He has not stood on his head nor made me curse the bad luck of facing a hot goalie. He's been very good, but not amazingly great.

Instead, the Hawks have made him look great by missing the net and blowing chances. They've had poor shot selection, been weak on getting rebounds, and missed about 100 different open nets - either by literally missing (hitting the post, missing totally, or hitting Rinne) or by not getting a shot off, sometimes due to great D by the Preds, but just as often by not pulling the trigger when the should have.

Some blown chances will happen, but the Hawks have created and then blown WAY too many incredible scoring chances. If they had buried as many of those as you'd expect out of a club this talented, we'd be up 3-0 and the Preds and Rinne would be what they should be - an after-thought.


4) Had to add this - Versteeg played amazingly last night. He did miss a few chances, but he created tons, both for himself and for others. If the guys around him had been playing even decently, the Hawks would have netted a few. Versteeg will make his mistakes, but if he can keep playing like that, it could change a game or two. I'd love to see it - for some reason, more than anyone else (except maybe Kane), I want to see Versteeg succeed.


Well, lesson learned. It's been a generation since we rooted for a heavily-favored Hawks team in the playoffs, we can be forgiven for forgetting what are reasonable expectations entering a series. The Preds have gotten the two wins we expected of them. Only now are we at the point where further Hawks' failures are starting to become unexpected and worrisome. Let's hope that doesn't happen.