Handshakes

Credit to my ticketmate Face for the title of this post. Just a great way to sum up confidence in your team's ability to win a close-out game. Handshakes.

As I detailed here yesterday, I've got all the confidence in the world in this Hawks team. But I'm really hoping they close it out tonight. First off, the aforementioned Face will lose his job if they don't. He works for this town's beloved chick hoops team, who happen to have a game during what would be Game 7. His boss told him he'd be fired if he missed it... so yeah, that will suck.

Second, can this city really take a Game 7 on home ice a few hours after the worst Crosstown Classic game ever played (really - never before have the Sox and Cubs played with worse records)? Sure, liquor purveyors all over the Chicagoland area would have a field day, but I don't want to see what this place looks like after that back-to-back debauchery.

I also just don't want the drama. No need to let Philly back into this. Sure, it'd be nice to see the Hawks skate the Cup in front of the home fans, but it's our first damn Cup in 50 years! They could skate it in front of the Taliban for all I cared, just as long as it's Toews doing the skating.


To the game itself, one issue that is getting a bit of play but getting maybe just as much play for being a non-issue (rightfully so) is the Flyers goaltending situation. First off, there's no question it would be Leighton. He's been their horse for weeks now and Boucher did nothing in Game 5 to make you think he's the hot hand. Second, the guy has been lights out at home.

But most important, in no way was anything that happened in Game 5 really Leighton's fault. Hell, I barely blame the Flyers. I thought they played about as good as they could have. The simple fact is that the Hawks are better and in that first period, the Hawks played as good as they possibly could. Nobody was gonna stop them - no team, no goalie, nothing.

The only reason to go to Boucher is if he's really good at wishing. Because the first line of defense for the Flyers is wishing like all hell that the Hawks don't play like they did in the first period of Game 5. If so, Handshakes.


One thing I'm hoping to see tonight is a bit counter-intuitive. The conventional wisdom - which I believe is broadly correct - is that you've got to take the chances you get to put it on net, as so many good things come of it. Now I agree with that, but like anything else, it has its limitations. If that really was the secret to hockey, everyone would just throw everything on net every chance and that'd be it.

Instead, I think you've got to keep a constant flow of shots on net, BUT do so while respecting what the defense is giving to you and what they aren't. I thought the Hawks struggled in both Games 3 and 4 because they too often just blindly shot or skated the puck straight at the net. They didn't work it around at all, just skated in and fired.

The result was twofold, both bad. First, the Flyers easily contained those shots, with few even getting to the net. Those that did were either caught easily or rebounded harmlessly to be cleared. Second, it shortened to a huge degree the possession time of the Hawks. That both kept the Flyers from getting tired out on defense and allowed Philly's offense possession to put huge pressure on the Hawks.

The Hawks greatest asset is their ability to cycle. They win board battles, move their feet, dump and dish passes, and hunt down errant pucks better than any team in the NHL. This cycle game has one purpose - to get the defense off-balance and out of position to create open passing and shooting lanes.

Watching the Hawks all year, their best opportunities have come when they get the puck in deep or over along the boards, then cycle through the corners with two or three guys. This forces the defense to spread outward and opens up the middle, while also just getting the opposition really tired and out of their proper alignments.

Given the Hawks superior cycling work, it also often eventually leads to Hawks players stepping off the boards unchallenged, with a lot of wide open space in the middle of the ice.

And that's when you start pounding shots on net. That's when the shots start going through, instead of harmlessly deflecting off one of the many defenders stacked deep in front of the net. The Flyers did a ton of that - just huddle around the front of their net and block shots. The Hawks didn't make them move and were too trigger happy in rifling the puck on net, it was easy to keep shots from getting through.

When the Hawks cycle game is working is also when rebounds start coming out to dangerous places. And by that I mean to where a Hawks player is situated with enough space to work and an angle to score. Again, the Flyers have bunched the middle while the Hawks have rushed shots, so the many juicy rebounds come skipping out harmlessly - either to be cleared by one of the many Flyers in front or to a Hawk who's too well covered to do anything with it.

Look, the Hawks can't get too cute - I agree. The Flyers just gave up 7 goals and are ripe to give up 7 more. The Hawks need to keep the pressure on and not let them off the hook by playing for the fancy play or perfect shot every time. But that shouldn't force the Hawks away from their biggest strength. Instead, they need to use their cycling skills to ratchet up the shot pressure to unsustainable levels. To create choice opportunities to pepper the net with the type of dangerous shots that lead to goals.

If the Hawks do this? Handshakes.


Final point - who should win the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) if the Hawks do close out tonight? I'm not gonna be original here, I'm gonna echo what I thought was a very astute call by Greg over at Yahoo's Puck Daddy blog. He said Pronger should be the choice.

I agree. The Flyers have been great this post-season, winning some very impressive series and looking good even in this hypothesized series defeat to the Hawks. And they've done it with defense and timely scoring. The scoring has come from all over - no one Flyer really has been markedly better than any other, certainly not to the tune of warranting the Conn Smythe in a losing effort.

But the defense has by and large come from Pronger. Yes, he's got some solid fellow blueliners back there doing great work themselves, but take Pronger out of the equation and the unit would be a shell of itself. The Hawks have a nasty high-powered attack that's deep and multi-dimensional, yet it took them five games before they figured out how to consistently get around Pronger.

Watching this Hawks team all year, I didn't think any single player could effect the Hawks like Pronger has. I just thought they brought too much talent on too many lines. But that's not been the case - Pronger shut down the top line and affected the others. He was a beast on the penalty kill and an asset in their offense. And if he's done it against the Hawks, he's definitely been doing it against the turds they played before.

Most of all, Pronger has been the driving force of a defense that has turned a pair of multi-failed goaltenders into world-beaters in the playoffs. Boucher and Leighton are journeymen who combined have been let go of by about half of the teams in the NHL. But with Pronger driving a blueline group and defensive system, they're within a couple breaks of winning the Cup.

Of course, a huge part of my argument comes from the fact that the Hawks don't have a deserving candidate. Obviously the team has played great, but no one player really stands out.

Buff - same story as ever, it's just getting more attention. When Buff shows up, he's a difference maker. But he doesn't always show up, and you can't be the MVP when you've only contributed in half the games.

Niemi - been great at a lot of key times and certainly has earned the right to be considered a Stanley Cup winning netminder and all that implies. Long stretches and whole games this guy stepped up huge, made the key saves, and got the Hawks the Ws. But Niemi's had some OK games along the way - no great stinkers, but just games where he didn't overly impress. Given the great D and offensive cushion he's given, it's hard to say he's really the MVP. Not to take away from what he's done - I guess I'd say he's been about as good as a goalie can be without deserving the Conn Smythe.

Toews - the favorite to win it and I wouldn't begrudge the voters if he did, but it took him five games to bring his full set of assets to the Finals and he still sits at only two points. Yes, the guy, like Hossa, does WAY more than just score points. And yes, before the Cup Finals he scored tons of points, too - and this award is for the entire playoffs. But ask yourself this - if Toews and Pronger got into a fight on the opening drop and both were sent home for the game, wouldn't you consider that a victory for the Hawks? Wouldn't the Hawks sans Toews be better off than the Flyers without Pronger?

Keith - someone wrote a piece about Keith deserving the nod, and like Niemi and Toews, the guy is certainly right there in the conversation. But like Niemi and Toews, I'd say he's done about as much as you can do to help a team win the Cup without actually being a fully deserving Conn Smythe winner. I mean there's no downside to what Keith has done - the few mistakes he's made have been from being overtired after carrying the team or trying to do too much to cover for others.

But like Toews, how do you give the award to Keith when Pronger has had way more of an impact on the Finals? Again, ask yourself - if Pronger and Keith are thrown out, don't you think that favors the Hawks? Not by much. And maybe not even because Pronger is better - but the Hawks would better survive without Keith than the Flyers would with Pronger. In fact, I'd point to Pronger's shitshow in Game 5 as proof - when that guy isn't on, the Flyers aren't even close.

One caveat to this all - tonight's game. If Pronger shits the bed again, he's out. One bad game can happen, and, as I said, can be used to support his value. But sucking in the two biggest games of the year? Doneski.

Similarly, if Toews goes all Olympian on us and just decides that there's no way his team will lose, I'm fine with him getting the award. And if Niemi stands on his head to win us this one himself, I'm fine with him getting it.

In fact, while I'm not gonna predict that, I will say that I entered this playoff by pointing out that Niemi had shown in the regular season an impressive knack for stepping it up when it mattered most. I pointed to his work in OTs and shoot-outs - his great record, his great save percentage - as proof.

From what I've seen in these playoffs, I'm only more of that belief. And no game is bigger than tonight. On top of that, Niemi was solid in Game 5, but not great. He hasn't played really great since the third period of Game 2. I got a feeling he's got another bigtime performance in him. Maybe not the steal the show type, but definitely the make the big plays at the key times to really help us win type.

And if he does have one left? Handshakes.

And this:

No Words

From the lengths of these posts, you know I'm not one who can be made speechless easily. Tonight, that could most definitely happen.