Deja Vu All Over Again

http://commit2theindian.blogspot.com/2010/05/halfway-home.html

The post linked pretty much sums up my feelings exactly right now. How is what we just saw that much different from what we saw in Games 1 and 2 against the Sharks, after which I wrote that entry? How is the situation we face in Games 3 and 4 of that series different than what we're looking at now?

My summarized points from that post and whether they still fit:

1) While being up 2-0 is huge, I also expected to the Hawks to win at least two games, as I expect every NHL playoff to do over a 7-game series, so what really have we done?

Um, check. Not only have the Flyers come from down 2-0 to win a series this year, they actually did it from down 3-0. Everyone keeps talking about this team's lack of quit and did we ever see it in the last period of Game 2. On top of that, the Wings were up 2-0 on the Penguins last year, were seen as the superior team, clearly had all the experience on their side, and still biffed it.

Just like with the Sharks series, I wouldn't be saying this about any 2-0 lead. It's the fact that, like the Sharks, the Flyers are clearly a highly talented team that is playing very good hockey. It's also that in both cases, each game could have gone either way. The Hawks didn't romp through their two victories in San Jose and their sure didn't for these openers here in Chicago.

So while 2-0 is a nice place to be in, there is plenty of work yet to be done. As we saw against San Jose, it took two outstanding efforts by the Hawks - on home ice - to put that team down. And that was a team known for quitting, as opposed to the Flyers, a team team renowned for never quitting.


2) If the Hawks win tonight or in Game 4, the series is all but over. But if the Hawks lose both of these games, their opponent picks up all the momentum and confidence, as well as home ice.

Check again (mostly). As much as the Flyers have shown they can come back from any deficit, that doesn't mean they actually will. And it sure doesn't mean they want to get there. They know that if they lose tonight or on Friday, they're gonna be in a bad, bad place. The Hawks are a very hard team to take two straight from (no one has done it all playoffs), let alone three or even four.

So yeah, the Flyers are most definitely a never-say-die team. But not quitting and winning are two very, very different things. The Flyers can be expected to play hard as all get out until the last whistle of the season - that I am sure of. That is the type of team these guys are and the more they've done it, the more they believe in it themselves.

However, it takes more than a lack of quit to beat the Hawks in three of four (or four of four). And unlike the Sharks, the Flyers don't have the prospect of regaining home ice if they take Games 3 and 4. Sure, at 7-1 in Philly, the Flyers can point to a true home ice advantage in these next two games. But that also means that the Flyers haven't been great on the road - just 5-4. So best case scenario, the Flyers still have to find a way to win away from Philly at some point, something they haven't done with consistency this post-season.

Still, taking these next two games would give the Flyers the confidence and momentum. Much like the Sharks, the Flyers weren't that far away from being up 2-0 or at least 1-1. I can't say I fully expected it, but the Flyers are all that the Hawks can handle, just as the Sharks were. And while the Hawks did eventually sweep the Sharks, it took an OT winner and a hard fought Game 4 to do so.

So if the Flyers can win these next two, they will have proven to themselves they are every bit as good as the Hawks. While not quitting alone isn't enough, having real confidence in your team can often be. This Flyers team is good, but just like the Sharks, the Hawks were just enough better in just enough ways. Don't open that door to the Flyers, allowing them to believe they can win.

I'll say what I said against the Sharks - the Hawks cannot let off the jugular right now. They've got to end it without giving this club an ounce of hope. Yeah, a Game 4 win will suffice, but I don't want to be in that situation, where a loss erases everything we've accomplished. It's time now, tonight, for the Hawks to end it. Just like they ended it in Game 3 against the Sharks.


3) I'd like to see the Hawks bring that same defense-first approach they exhibited in Games 1 and 2 to Games 3 and 4, and have faith that if they do so, this series will be doneski.

Obviously the Hawks did not bring a defense-first approach to Game 1, but they definitely did in Game 2 and the lack of such in the opener only made it all the more clear how important it is that the Hawks play the right game. So again, check.

The perfect example - the end of Game 2. I sure hope the Hawks don't put themselves in the same position where they have to weather what appears to be a period-long power play. But it was damn impressive that against a team as offensively talented as the Flyers, a team who was going balls to the wall to score that tying goal, that the Hawks could still withstand it.

Sure, it's no fun to think about the fact that for 59 and a half minutes, the Hawks offense couldn't do jack to solve the Flyers D and Michael Leighton. But it's maybe not so bad when you realize that for 60 minutes, the Flyers couldn't do jack to solve the Hawks D and Antti Niemi except for the flukiest bouncing puck/deflection goal I've ever seen live.

Especially given the circumstance, the Flyers will feel more and more pressure if they aren't scoring moreso than if they aren't keeping the Hawks from scoring. If it's a 0-0 or 1-1 late into the game, I expect the Flyers to start over-committing on offense, trying desperately to get that goal that gets them the do-or-die win. That desperation leads to mistakes that create all sorts of counter-attack chances. And those goals are the ones that can really break a team's back.


4) Don't fret if Game 3 is close, or even if the Hawks are down - that all favors the Hawks because it keeps the pressure on the opposition. And that pressure can lead to a lot of small mistakes or even a big one, which may be all the difference.

Check again. While the Sharks were facing more internal pressure than the Flyers, given their recent history of regular playoff choke jobs, the Flyers have the added pressure of knowing just how tantalizingly close the Cup is, but how far it will be if they lose. And similar to what I just detailed above, the longer the Flyers have to go without being able to shake the Hawks in Game 3 or 4, the more pressure they're going to feel. And the more pressure, the more mistakes that will be made.

As much as the Flyers have shown they can come back from any series deficit, that doesn't mean they actually will. And it sure doesn't mean they want to get there. They know that if they lose tonight or on Friday, they're gonna be in a bad, bad place. The Hawks are a very hard team to take two straight from (no one has done it all playoffs), let alone three or even four.

So like the Sharks, the Flyers know that any mistake could be the one that all but ends their season. It's hard enough to play against the Hawks, with their unrelenting attack, talent, and execution. Try it when you can see your very real Stanley Cup dreams one misstep from going away for good.

Plus, even more so than in that San Jose series, I have every confidence in these Hawks, as long as the game remains within reach. Doesn't matter the type of game, the type of team, the location, the series situation, etc etc. The Hawks have shown, over and over, that they are winners. They find ways to better their opponents in whatever facet of the game is required. Since I wrote that post, I've seen the Hawks do it four more times against two of the best teams in all of hockey. And I fully expect them to do it two more times.

And then:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlHgRl2iHaA


Couple quick thoughts I had to slip in:

1) The Eager goal is not getting enough play. I don't know why, but that goal should already be talked about as an historic Hawks tally. Not only did it net them a crucial Game 2, but it came off the stick of just about the last guy you'd have expected. And it was no fluke - it was a scorer's goal, perfectly played against the D and goaltender. And it came at a key time - the Flyers were reeling but ready to bounce back, the Hawks were getting going but needed more fuel.

Even at the time it was huge, but after the Flyers scored and then pounded the Hawks the whole third period, that goal became even bigger. Who knows how things would have shaken out without it, but we do know that Eager's tally won us Game 2, a game that swung so much of the series.

And another aspect that is not getting it's play - Buff's steal and pass. Sure, the Flyers outlet pass wasn't very good, but if Buff wasn't hustling back, the Flyer forward could have adjusted and been on his way on a break. No one's talking about that, but as the pass was being made, I saw nothing but wide open ice down the side of the rink.

Instead though, Buff shows a hustle I've long criticized him for not having, and gets the steal. That alone would have been nice, but then he follows it up with a beautiful pass in the opposite direction he was going, setting Eager up with the position and space to deliver that beautiful shot past the defender and netminder. Buff has gotten a lot of credit for his scoring this post-season, but since he was moved back to D, he's really stepped up his all-around play. Discounting that and focusing just on the goals would be missing so much of what has made him a key component to this team.


2) Lay off Toews and Kane for their lack of Cup Finals production. First off, there have been plenty of possessions where the Hawks have cycled and dominated the puck thanks to those two. Sure, no goals have come of it, but that doesn't mean no good has. The Flyers have been coming at the Hawks offensively, so these brief periods in the Philly zone give the Hawks a needed defensive break. And you aren't going to score every time - two games is no long stretch to go without finding the net. Let's see how a few more games go before we decide if they've gone cold or just gone a normal two few games without scoring.

Second, the Toews-Kane duo has tying up the Flyers best defenders, both bluelines and forwards. And that's a heck of a group, a group that's done the job shutting down the Eastern Conference for the last two months. By demanding all of their attention and effort, the second and third lines have been freed up against lesser defenders. Sharp-Hossa-Brouwer and Bolland-Versteeg-Kopecky have done all kinds of damage this series. No way they do the same thing if it wasn't for Toews-Kane-Buff monopolizing the best checkers and blueliners the Flyers have.