Looking Back... and Forward (Part II)

Last week here I posted about the Johnsson-Barker deal and the Versteeg/Buff/Sopel/Huet non-deals as I looked back at the main Hawks stories of the last few months. Today, we look forward to what we can expect in the coming months.

Campbell's injury and its fallout

I'm not gonna weigh in on Ovechkin's hit because I only saw a couple of replays on the jumbotron shortly after. Some hits are clearly dangerous, some are clearly clean, and a lot fall in between, where they might just be terrible or harmless, but you can't quite make out for sure. I feel like this one falls in there.

Especially after seeing what a really nasty dirty hit looks like in the Wisniewski-Seabrook affair, I'm not feeling bitter at Ovi for what he did to our team - I just feel the Hawks caught some bad injury luck for only the second time in the past two years (losing Khabi in the Conference Finals being the other). Although, those who follow Ovechkin a bit closer have implied that this kind of thing is fairly common place with him. I heard Campbell say recently that he wouldn't accept Ovi's apology if he called to offer one, so maybe this story will play out come the Finals. We can hope.

As it is now, I'm just seeing bad injury luck, the first of its kind for us this year. Sure we lost Hossa, Bolland, and Burish for significant time this season, but all are back now and have plenty of time to get up to full speed come the playoffs. The Hawks aren't in that much different of a playoff seed as they'd have been if all three were healthy. Sure it'd have been nice to have Bolland and Hossa playing together all year, both to find their chemistry and to find the right third skater for the line. But there's still time for that and there's nothing wrong with having a second line of skaters with extremely fresh legs as we get deeper into the extremely long and trying playoff schedule.

Now - now we've got some real bad luck. As maligned as he's been, Campbell is one of the most valuable player's on the Hawks - 2nd on the blueline to Keith and maybe behind only Hossa, Kane, and Toews otherwise.

This is especially true given the absurd PT logged so far by Keith and Seabrook, the struggles of Seabrook, and the cluster-F in goal right now. Add in Seabrook and Johnsson's day-to-day status, and the Hawks are definitely being tested.

While Johnsson's addition allows the Hawks to keep a legit Top 4 collection of blueliners (when Seabrook and KJ come back, assuming by the playoffs at the very least), the fact was the Hawks needed him as a 5th defenseman to take the ice time pressure off of Keith & Seabrook and allow the third unit to help make up for the struggles of the first and the uncertainty in net.

I've read a few others starting to say it and I nodded my head vigorously when I did - Seabrook has been an absolute mess since he was named to the Olympic squad. Oddly, I thought the only solid play he's shown over the past three months was in Vancouver, where he held his own on ice with the very best.

But while wearing the Indian Head, lately Seabrook has been horrendous. It's gotten so bad that I'm starting to watch him expecting him to make mistakes... and then he goes ahead and do so! Back against Washington he had at least one f-up that lead to a goal, and another couple that were pretty glaring.

Is he wearing down? The word on Keith is that he's an absolute monster in the workout room and weathers the heavy ice time like no other. Is Seabrook just not as capable? That'd be surprising, given how Seabrook logged heavy minutes last year and then played his best hockey as the playoffs went on.

The exhaustion might be a factor of that long playoff run followed by another season of heavy minutes - remember, Seabrook had never before seen the playoffs. Maybe the extra two months screwed up his off-season schedule and he's paying the price now.

Or maybe it's just mental - guys just sometimes get off their game. There doesn't have to be a great explanation - Seabrook might just have lost his flow and as his struggles continue, he forces the issue more and compounds his poor play. We've all seen it happen plenty of times before.

Whatever the reason behind it, the fact is that something needs to be done to get Seabrook back into top gear. Even with Campbell around, Seabrook as a mediocre defenseman probably meant good night for our Cup chances. But with Soup gone, #7 has got to step it up.

Obviously, the concussion issues Seabrook is now facing do not help matters. Or maybe they will. Clearly I'd have preferred it not happened - as I said, it was the scariest hit I've ever seen in real life. But maybe some time away from the game will recharge and re-focus Seabrook. Hopefully the physical toll on his health was minimal, that the Hawks are just being cautious to make sure he's back to full go before they throw him back into the fire.

If Seabrook can come back feeling near 100%, maybe the time away ends up a silver lining to an ugly play. With the additional pressure of the coming playoffs and the thin blueline upping the demands on him, maybe Seabrook's switch if flipped again. Maybe, like in the Olympics, he needs the stakes to rise in order to get himself out of this slump. We can only hope.

If so, the Hawks might not be done just yet. First off, the loss of a player, especially a high end one, almost always looks worse on paper than on the ice. How many times have we seen a team lose a key player, only to continue to play well in his absence? I'm talking in any sport, at any level. Second, as I just mentioned, when Seabs and KJ are healthy, the Hawks still have four legit plus defenseman, which is what you need to win in the NHL.

And as I mentioned last week , Johnsson is uniquely qualified to help fill Soup's loss both because he's a Swede (and thus hopefully better able to pair with the Hammer) and because he's so multi-capable (allowing him to take up minutes on any unit). Soup's minutes on the power play? Johnsson can handle those. Or maybe JQ finds someone else (Hendry, Sharp, Buff?), then Johnsson can chew up minutes short-handed.

As for the third pairing, I definitely will miss having a highly capable guy like Johnsson to offset any questions about either Hendry or Sopel, and knowing we could go with whomever of the two looked the best. But for the time being, unfortunately Campbell's injury means we'll almost definitely be seeing both Sopel and Hendry playing significant minutes in the postseason, and doing so at the same time.

As I said last week, I fear the mistakes Sopel makes and how it could be killer in a tight series. But he's definitely a capable NHL blueliner and you can't deny how he gives everything of himself to kill penalties. Even aside the physical punishment, penalty killing is a valuable skill set and Sopel's got them. And it will help that Hendry, while still very raw, is a decently quick skater who can help cover for Sopel's slowness. It'll also help that neither will be too aggressive offensively, knowing their job is simply to ensure that they don't get scored on while they're on the ice.

I've also got some hope that a defenseman emerges from nowhere to be good - maybe it's this guy Boynton, a former All Star, who they acquired at the deadline and just called up from Rockford. Odds are low, but who knows - guys do come from out of nowhere to contribute all the time, especially in the hockey postseason. While the Hammer was a prospect instead of a journeyman, I don't think anyone, including the Hawks, expected him to so aptly fill a Top 4 spot last season, and yet he did. So fingers crossed something like that happens here.

One interesting angle that we've been treated to lately - using Buff on the blue line. Watching him skate there on Wednesday night (necessitated by Seabrook's injury and the lack of Campbell and Johnsson in the lineup), I realized what the issue is with Buff - he's a tweener. You find this in hoops a lot - a guy who isn't quite athletic enough to be a small forward but not quite big enough to be a power forward.

For Buff, he's clearly got skills that would work for both positions. Seeing him back on the blueline this past week, I realized he's a decent skater with the puck and moving forward. But his backward skating skills leave something to be desired, as does his understanding of positioning and playing his man. Sure some of that is rust - the guy hasn't been a regular defender for years - but some of it is just not there. And those are fundamental skills you have to have - if Buff can't skate and play the right position, he's gonna get torched too often.

So I get why the Hawks coaching staff saw decent forward skating skills, decent puck handling, a good shot, and that big body and thought he'd make for a hell of a power forward. But again, Buff's just doesn't have the right approach. And I think I'm getting why, having moved a bit between the blueline and a center spot in my rec leagues this season. Silly to compare the two, but on a lot of levels, hockey is always hockey, no matter where or how it's being played. And I think it's possible that Buff brings a defender's intensity level to the forward position.

As a blueliner, you get a lot more time where you just float. Offensively, often you're only role is to hang around back at the point and wait. Or on rushes, you are to hang back and be ready if the puck gets turned around. This creates a lot of time where you're not going balls out, but instead really dialing it back and surveying the scene in front of you. It's not a bad thing - it's a requirement of the position.

However, as a forward, you almost never stop going, especially in the offensive zone. This is even more true of the Hawks, a fast-skating, puck control team that is constantly cycling and attacking. But Buff doesn't have that kind of motor - he's still floating as he's done his whole career as a D man.

And the thing about intensity is that it's near impossible to turn on and off. Few people really have that skill - it's one of the rarest things I've ever seen in playing and watching sports. If you're playing a lackadaisical style, it's hard to instantly ratchet things up. So Buff's doing his little d-man float thing while he's playing forward and getting caught in that gear. I think it might be why he disappears on so many shifts and why he won't make an impact for games on end.

So what's the answer? I don't think it's using him on D - at this point, he's way too inexperienced and way too out of practice to get regular ice time for a team who expects to win the Cup. I've liked some things that I've seen of him back there, but come the high intensity of a playoff series, where you play the same team night-in and night-out, where every goal means so much, I just don't want to count on a guy who's been playing forward the past three seasons.

Instead, Buff is part of another Hawks' concern moving forward...


Finding minutes for 14 capable forwards with only 12 spots to go round

On the flipside of the loss of Campbell is the return of Burish, bringing the Hawks to full strength among their forwards. We'll see plenty of guys get nights off down the stretch with real and phantom injuries, but at some point JQ is going to have to figure out the best way to utilize these 14 guys. That includes knowing who should skate together as well as who shouldn't skate at all.

Because I know JQ's reading, let me offer my take:

1ST LINE - Toews, Kane, and Brouwer

Toews and Kane have proven they play amazingly together and that whomever is next to them will prosper. However, no player seemed to prosper as much, both in terms of increasing his worth and in how he makes the line bettter, than Brouwer. I've said all year that he turned me from one of his biggest detractors into one of his biggest supporters, forcing me to eat a boatload of crow along the way. Seeing what's happened after he's been removed from this line has only solidified that belief.

Brouwer gives you both the grinder and the opportunistic goal-scorer you need alongside the amazing playmaking chemistry Toews and Kane showcase every shift. He brings size, defensive skill, toughness, skill along the boards, and he can also light the lamp at a good clip. And maybe most important, you're getting the most out of Brouwer when you've got him on this line.

Seems like JQ agrees, actually. Of late Brouwer has been skating with the Kids and they've been doing a solid job of things. They aren't burying every chance, but they sure are creating a lot of them. JQ seems committed to keeping Kane and Toews together (as he should be - those guys work amazingly with one another), so here's hoping that Brouwer remains on that line for the remainder.

2ND LINE - BOLLAND, HOSSA, ???

I gotta be honest, I'm not sure the best person to put alongside these two. As I mentioned, that's probably the biggest negative of the Hawks injuries this season, before Campbell's occurred - that this second line hasn't come together. But a lot of times these things gel quickly. Mad Scientist JQ might try something crazy here and for whatever reason it clicks.

This line gelling might just be independent of the third skater - it could just be about Bolland and Hossa really learning how to take advantage of one another. That's not easy to do - Bolland's got to figure our how best to work off of Hossa, making sure to get him the puck as much as possible in the best way possible. But he's also got to be careful not to defer too much - a common mistake among lesser players skating with superstars.

Once those two do get it going, then you've got to find that third person who fills in all the blanks and capitalizes on their skills. Sharp is the obvious choice, easily the Hawks most talented and consistent option. He's a plus skater, plus shooter, decent playmaker, and solid defender. The question is will these guys all fit together? JQ is wondering that also, as he's currently got Sharp skating alongside Hossa and Bolland, with some decent results so far.

As is, they wouldn't have an obvious bruiser, though Hossa plays physical and Bolland is definitely a grinder. Hossa and Sharp are similar - plus scorers with good play-making skills. Would that mean they'd trip over each other or would that allow them to play off one another? Best case scenario seems to suggest these three together, as that gets your next 3 best skaters on the second line together.

But one reason I struggle with this decision is because there are some other alternative that might work, but also reason to think they wouldn't. Even if Sharp isn't the perfect fit, he might still be the best. Say you throw your best complimentary guy - Ladd - up here. Even if he does work, what are you left with on the third line? Madden between Versteeg and Sharp, but will that work as a checking unit? While all three guys can skate and play defense, and you'd have a nice bit of playmaking and scoring, you're missing size. Without size, could you be confident in this line matching up the other team's top line every shift?

To answer that, JQ might keep Ladd back on that checking line with Madden, but use Versteeg up on the second line. You still have a lack of a real bruiser on the 2nd line, but maybe put in a position where he's being asked to play off of a star might be what Versteeg needs to play within himself. Instead of trying to do to much, he might go back to trying to hustle and support, flashing his playmaking skills only to serve as a compliment to the offense that's running through Hossa.

Like with Brouwer on the top line, maybe to using Versteeg on the second line is the best way to maximize his value. I'm not saying this is the case, but if the Sharp option isn't clearly working, I'd like to see JQ at least allow Versteeg a trial here. Give him a run for 4-5 games, see if the line clicks. If not, put Sharp back out there and know that even if they don't gel completely, that any line with Bolland between Hossa and Sharp should be pretty good.

3RD LINE - MADDEN, LADD, ???

Madden obviously is centering this line, unless JQ decides to really shake it up and use Sharp at center (he did play very well there) on the 2nd line with Hossa and move Bolland back to the checking line. It's a possibility if that 2nd line isn't working and Bolland seems to be the problem. As a checking line center, Bolland is definitely capable. And given how banged up Madden is, skating with the fourth line wouldn't the worst thing, especially because it'd allow JQ to use him for face-offs and match-ups throughout the game.

But that's not ideal, as Sharp is best-served as a wing and the Hawks are looking their best when Bolland is playing well enough to be a legit #2. Still, it's nice to know the Hawks have these kind of options. That's thank mainly to Sharp, who's shown himself capable of doing just about whatever JQ asks of him.

After Madden, I like Ladd here because he brings a bit of size and does a little bit of everything. He's a solid defender, can skate, can score, can create - all the things you're hoping for out of a third liner. Plus, Ladd comes to play every night. He isn't always someone you notice, but given his role as a support player, that's not a bad thing.

Together Madden and Ladd give you some tenacity, some wheels, and a good defensive approach to the game. Who you pair with them depends on who you settle on for the second line. If Sharp's playing alongside Bolland and Hossa, I like Versteeg here. Again, maybe what Versteeg needs is a defined role - go skate with Madden and Ladd and shut down their top line. Use your speed, your defensive skills, and your grit to take their best skaters out of the game.

Again, lately this is what JQ's been doing. And the results have been great - this line has been getting chances left and right for the past week, seemingly creating scoring chances every shift. Given the solid teams they've been playing and their role as a defensive unit, these three have been making a real impact. I may just be hoping that JQ keeps them in this role for the duration.

However, if the second line falters and Versteeg is moved up, I've got no problem with Sharp on the third. Again - Sharp can succeed anywhere. The guy might have some preferences, but it doesn't show in his performance. Wing, center, top line, 4th line - the guy just goes out and skates his ass off. So if he ends up on the third line and is asked to play a shut-down role, I think Sharp will be great at it.

And just because Job 1 is defense, I still like the luxury of a checking line that can create some offense. Madden is at least capable, Ladd is opportunistic, and combined with either Versteeg or Sharp, this line would be a threat to score and score with some regularity. That's the beauty of both Versteeg and Sharp - they'd be fine defensively on a checking line, but they're also gonna instantly make their line offensively capable.

4TH LINE - BURISH, BUFF, EAGER

First, I've got to say that I feel great about the luxury of having Frasier as my 13th skater. He's shown himself a very capable 4th line center - he brings energy, toughness, solid skills, and is a good penalty killer. Knowing that if you lose a skater you can confidently plug him in is a real comforting thought.

Burish made his mark instantly upon return and come the playoffs, I expect him to be ready to center the third line. In doing so, he brings solid speed, decent skills, plenty of toughness and defensive work, and most of all, is one of the game's top pests. Alongside him, just like on last year's top 4th line in the league, is Eager, an underrated offensive player who's skating, hockey sense, and stick skills are a lot more than you'd expect out of a guy who can drop the gloves.

Finally, I LOVE Buff on this line. I think Buff needs this kind of motivation and direction. He's struggled to make much of himself as a scoring line option and I think he's ill-suited as a checking line option. But back on the 4th line, where his job would be to skate hard and hit people? That's the kind of thing that will bring out the best in Buff. He lacks focus and drive - so focus him on playing a role that requires only that he exhibit drive. Damn, two problems solved at once!

On top of that, Buff, Burish, and Eager have some decent offensive skills. Put them on the ice against the other team's 4th line, and they've got a real shot to make those subpar skaters look bad. They don't need to regularly score, just do so enough to swing a game or two and be a constant threat. Make the other coach uneasy about using his 4th line - force him to skate a normal line against the Hawks bottom line. That just means more minutes and more exhaustion in the always taxing battle that is the Cup Playoffs.

Where's that leave Kopecky? Drinking with Hossa after the game, which seemingly is the reason the Hawks brought him in. I'm not sure what the thought was on this guy. He hasn't been terrible, but he also has done nothing to make me see what would inspire the Hawks to add him to a group of forwards that already was extremely deep.

I can only guess they saw upside, because no way you commit money and ice time to a guy you're hoping is gonna be a 4th liner. We've got plenty of those, especially when you remember how solidly Bickell played this season. But I haven't seen any of that upside - sure Kopecky will have a decent game here or there, but even after a recent 2-goal outburst, he's still a -6, 2nd worst on the team (to Buff's -8). Frasier is the only other regular who isn't a positive.

Despite getting a few games on scoring lines (including with Hossa) and some time here and there on the power play, Kopecky has all of 6 goals, 4 of which came in two games. He's not overly physical, overly fast, overly skilled, nor overly energetic or grindy. And Kopecky certainly makes his share of mistakes, physical and mental.

My hope - the Hawks can find a taker for his $1.2M salary (for two years) this off-season. I'd much rather have Bickell and some other hungry kids at the league minimum than this guy. He'll have a nice resume, having skated with the Wings and now the Hawks - someone will want him, right?


What I'd like to see moving forward

It's pretty simple - I want to see JQ settle on some forward line combinations that maximize each player and the team as a whole, especially that 2nd line. I want to see Seabrook and KJ fully healthy, and both on their game, playing like Top 4 blueliners. I want to see some 3rd pairing emerge in the absence of Campbell, and I hope it doesn't include Buff (although I have been very impressed so far... I just can't believe he wouldn't be a weakness come the playoffs).

And I want to see JQ come up with a sure-fire strategy to be able to give both Huet and Niemi the opportunity to work their way into a real rhythm. So first one guy gets a real shot to take over - weeks on end of being the main workhorse. Then if he fails, the other guy still has time to establish himself before the playoffs.

With Huet missing some games of late, I guess I'm asking for JQ to stick with Niemi for the rest of March. There aren't any back-to-back games until the 31st, so all of those before should be Niemi's. See if he can show himself worthy of the #1. If so - keep working him in April, but spell in Huet to keep Niemi fresh.

If Niemi doesn't pass this March test, then April becomes Huet's, straight on through. 6 games in 10 days, just like a playoff series. See if the Frenchman has got it. If they both fail those tests? Well then you've just go to make a decision in the playoffs and hope you guessed right.

Get those lines and pairing straight, get a fairly quick recovery out of Campbell (current timeline haa him optimistically back for the 2nd round, pessimistically not until the Western Conference finals) and avoid some red hot squad in the first - I think that the Hawks should still be in good shape to capture the Cup.