Au Revoir, Huet

After last night's debacle, two of my buddies were debating Huet, with one claiming he's lost his confidence and the other saying that he was just bad.

They are both right. And in both cases, it's pretty clear he's doneski.

Once, Huet was a good enough goalie to consistently finish in the top of the league in GAA. He was good enough to warrant a$5.6M a year deal from a front office that had Scotty Bowman. Huet is a talented goalie. He's shown for a long time that he can get it done in the NHL.

But goalies, like closers in baseball, are SO about the mental. And Huet's clearly lost the mental. And that has made him into a bad goalie. A very bad one. Another buddy of mine pointed out that Huet's save percentage since Christmas is a shockingly horrible .869. Shockingly horrible.

This near the playoffs, after struggling that much for so long, following such a meltdown, Huet has now officially got to be the back-up. Only an injury can bring him minutes in the playoffs. That's where we're at - Huet as our franchise goalie is a concept that finally needs to be buried. And I'll admit I was one of the last guys still holding on to that concept. No longer.


So where's the blame go? First to the Hawks front office, who somehow didn't know (and still might not) a very simple hockey concept - that there are only a few "great" goalies worth giving a ton of money. If you can't get ahold of one, then you shouldn't be paying your goalie much. Just take your chances with the best guy you can get for a reasonable price, because the odds are just as good that he'll get it done as some non-superstar who you have to pay big money to.

Where did I come across this theory? From the multiple damn cup winning Detroit Red Wings GM. I think their track record suggests there's some credence to this belief. And as I showed in one of my last postings, the goalies who bring their teams to the Finals are a very mixed bag - not at all a list of the very best (or highest paid) goalies in the game every year.

Had the Hawks given some other vet $3M for two years, this sort of meltdown wouldn't be a big issue. Sure we'd be looking at an untested Niemi in the playoffs, but again, there's no rule that says an untested rookie can't get the job done. We're still in prime position to take the #1 seed in the West. We've still got a roster well capable of winning it all.

As for that lower cost veteran alternative having a similar meltdown as Huet is now? We'd have chalked that up to a small risk that didn't pay off as expected, but was offset by Niemi working out decently well. Huet was a solid back-up last year, playing a role in motivating Khabi to rediscover his game and this year taking the pressure of Niemi as he developed into a possible #1. That's something some middling veteran could have pulled off. And come this off-season, that middling vet would be on his way to another team, no harm done during his two-year stay in Chicago.

Instead, that contract has upped the expectations on Huet and will soon handcuff the franchise in an off-season where the payroll is already far overspent. All because the Hawks front office gave $5.6M for 4 years to a guy who'd never started even HALF of his team's games and never won a playoff series. Really??


The second part of the blame? JQ. As a hockey coach, you've got to know that confidence and rhythm are the two most crucial ingredients to goalie success, at least on the pro level. And you've got to do everything you can to foster those things. Instead, JQ played musical starters all year long, giving neither goalie a chance to settle into a flow. It's hard enough on the Hawks goalies in-game, as they don't see a lot of shots to get comfortable against.

But JQ made it all the worse by not giving either goalie a definite role. Thus neither got into a physical rhythm, neither got used to playing the bulk of the games. Neither got to see as many teams, players, and action as possible.

But it also didn't allow the goalies to mentally settle into what's demanded of them. Most pro athletes do better when they know their place. For a #1 goalie, that means I'm coming to the rink every day and backstopping this team - good days, bad days, whatever it is, I'm the last line and will have to do everything I can to carry us. I'm not just thinking about this next chance, this next period, this next game. I'm thinking about the whole course of the season, knowing that I'm gonna be in this net for this team every time it matters.

Also important is establishing your other goalie in the secondary role. I'm coming to the rink every day and finding ways to stay sharp for when they need me. I'm going to be a student of the game and mentally develop a way to gain experience and insight while not on the ice. I'll play when the schedule gets heavy and will just be expected to keep our team in the game. And if an injury or other issue comes up with our #1, I'll be ready to take the reigns.

Those are two totally different approaches and demand two totally different things from a goalie. Having guys successfully fill both is important to any pro team. But JQ didn't allow either Huet or Niemi to settle into either role. Instead, neither really knew what was to be expected from them beyond the next announced starter. Even that meant nothing - any signs of trouble, they knew JQ would pull them in a heartbeat. And who knew when they'd get back out there. Next game? Next week? Next month?

Pitchers, QBs, point guards - the lone players responsible for their team in each of these sports faces very similar challenges. And in each case, as with goalies, it's common knowledge that they will do better if they know they'll be getting the bulk of the opportunities. That they'll be judged by a long stretch of play in which they can settle in to a rhythm, work past challenges, and play out of slumps. They can't be looking over their shoulder, wondering if each mistake will be the last straw, and never knowing what tomorrow will bring.

The Hawks were having a great season, with little pressure on them to win any particular game when the goalie situation started to get murky. JQ had the luxury of sticking with those defined roles and creating the environment needed for goalie success. But instead he went in the exact opposite direction and established nothing but doubt and uncertainty in both of his netminders. That severely lessened the chances that either would have the success we all hoped. And the proof is in the pudding - these dudes both had flashes of great things early in the season and now both are looking suspect. Obviously Huet is beyond suspect - he seems shattered.


Finally, of course, Huet has to share some of the blame. He had opportunities this year and last to establish himself behind a very good defensive team. In neither case did he do so. He was solid last year, but not great. In an open competition, he lost out to Khabi. Then this year Huet was given the #1 slot, sure with a short leash, but it was his to lose. And he went ahead and lost it. All of this would never have come about if Huet could have just been solid. He didn't need to carry his team, he had room for error, but he had to not be noticeably bad. But Huet couldn't even manage that.


So now, like last year, Huet's the NHL's most expensive back-up goalie. Who knows, maybe it won't matter. Maybe Niemi is up to the challenge. He's had plenty of good nights and shown himself capable of coming through in heated situations - while shoot-out skills themselves don't perfectly translate to playoff success, the mental ability to elevate your game in those situations most certainly does. If Niemi can play solidly, giving this team a chance to win every night, then for this year, Huet's horrible play will not have been a problem.

But next year? There it becomes a major problem. My hope was always that short of winning us the Cup, Huet would at least do well enough to re-establish his value to where he became tradeable. Unfortunately he's gone the other way - this guy is glued to the Hawks, at least through this off-season.

Sure, there's still hope. Injuries or inconsistency from Niemi next year (or even in the playoffs this year) could force Huet back into the #1 slot. From there he might just get hot and reestablish himself as a plus goaltender. That happens all the time in the NHL. All the time.

But most likely entering next season, the Hawks will face the very real possibility of having to burn $5.6M in cap space they absolutely do not have on a back-up goalie, something that shouldn't cost you more than a million or so.

Me? I'm farming Huet out and going with Crawford or some bargain vet as Niemi's back-up (or competition, depending on how the Finn does in the playoffs). That would save them the cap money, even if it would destroy any chance of Huet ever recovering his trade value. You can afford the $5.6M hit as a franchise, but you can't afford the $5.6M hit on the cap as a team.

Farming out Huet gives you a boatload more money to keep Sharp and Versteeg around, to get that much-needed 5th blueliner, to keep or replace guys like Madden, Ladd, Burish, Eager, and the Hammer, all of whom need new contracts this off-season.

For now though, we can lay to rest the goalie discussions (barring a multiple-game Niemi meltdown) and just sit back and hope the young Finn is ready. SecondCityHockey.com used this quote after Tuesday's shut-out victory over the Coyotes, from a commentator in their game thread, and I thought it was pretty hilarious and hopefully pretty portentous:

"Are you sure that's "Aunty" Niemi...Looked more like "Uncle" Niemi the way he just molested the Coyotes."