Predicting 2009-2010 (Part III)

Part III - Defensemen

Here before the season I gave some introductory thoughts on how saw the Hawks regular season shaking out and then here last week I reviewed my thoughts on the forwards and what I expected from them.

Now, a mere two weeks into the season, I finally get to the blueliners:

Keith #2
Age: 26
08-09: 8 G, 36 A, +33, 25:43 ATOI in 77 games

The straw that stirs the drink, I've argued before (echoing the thoughts of many other learned Hawks fans) that Keith is the most important player on the team. I think in the playoffs Seabrook really took a step forward on both ends and that Campbell showed himself a capable veteran on his own end, but the fact remains that Keith is still the heart and soul of both the defense and the squad as a whole.

That Keith has been a plus thirty in each of the last two seasons while leading the team in ice time and always matching up against the other team's top skaters tells you all you need to know. This guy is an elite defender who may not get the hype but certainly deserves it.

The Hawks will soon lock up Keith longterm and chew up a boatload of salary cap space in doing so, but we'll be happy campers for it. He really is an offensive and defensive force who gives every bit of himself on every shift, every night. I think the Hawks players would agree that Keith would be the last guy they'd want to lose.

This year I see more of the same from Keith - tons of ice time, great plus-minus, and a very solid point total as he sparks a potent offense. Don't underestimate that impact of his game - not just Keith, but the entire Hawks defense. That most of the Hawks blueliners can really skate, pass, and shoot makes the already skilled group of forwards even more productive. Skating a bit lately myself I've come to realize the huge difference having offensively capable defenders can be. Keith and Co. fill that bill as good as any unit in the league.

Seabrook #7
Age: 24
08-09: 8 G, 18 A, +23, 23:19 ATOI in 82 games

First and foremost, I have to admit my bias for Seabrook, as he's my 3-month old daughter's favorite player. Being a sports fan and avid athlete myself, I'm of the opinion every one needs their own number (although mine has changed often throughout the years) and thus decided that Lily's is 7, as she was born on 7-7. So when it came time to pick her favorite Blackhawk, Seabrook was an obvious choice.

This choice was cemented when he scored an OT goal to seal the greatest comeback in Hawks history in what just happened to be Lily's first Hawks game (I found an actual baby Hawks sweater online and everything - not a tshirt that looks like a jersey, an actual hockey jersey that's been shrunk down to baby size).

But I think having Seabrook as her first favorite Hawk will serve Lily well. As I mentioned above, Seabrook took things to another level last year in the playoffs. He's always been a solid sidekick to Keith, but in the post-season he elevated his importance on the power play and on regular shifts against the top players every night.

While all the focus has been on the cap space hijinx the Hawks will have to pull off to keep the Big Three (Kane, Toews, and Keith) in the fold after this year w/o losing major pieces, it's also scary to note that Seabrook will put the team in a similar place the following season. And the way he's been playing, I don't see how the Hawks can let him go.

With that big shot and quiet confidence from the point, Seabrook has become an offensive factor. And with good size, solid speed, and a great feel for the ice, he remains a defensive zone presence. I think this year Seabrook will elevate to top tier status and hope that's recognized by Team Canada (tho giving the guy an extra two weeks off would have its own rewards).

I just hope the Hawks can find a way to sacrifice enough of the cap space with the likes of Barker, Buff, et al to ensure that Seabrook joins Toews, Kane, Hossa, Bolland, Versteeg, Campbell, and Keith as longterm core Hawks.

Campbell #51
Age: 30
08-09: 7 G, 45 A, +5, 22:34 ATOI in 82 games

With all this talk of salary cap casualties to come, it's easy to point to Campbell's behemoth contract and his lack of awe-inspiring impact last season as a major misstep for the Hawks. But as I've said before, I don't full agree. I do agree that the Hawks screwed up when they signed Campbell last off-season. But I believe the mistake was in not offering him a 12-year deal to lessen the salary cap impact, as has become the norm now.

At a $5M hit instead of a $7M, Campbell is looking a bit better. And when you really delve into the value and rarity of a blazing fast offensive defenseman of his type, you start to see that from a purely hockey standpoint, adding Campbell into this mix was a real victory for the Hawks.

As I said above, one of the reasons the Hawks offense is so potent is because they have so many defensemen making it all go. And Campbell is definitely the best of the group in doing that. In case you thought Campbell had a disappointing season last year, consider this - he set career highs in assists, points, games, and shots on goal.

Yep, career highs. The Hawks paid him based on an impressive body of work, but Campbell came out and out-performed that body. So how could this guy be considered a disappointment by so many Hawks fans?

What was most encouraging to me was that Campbell elevated his defense tremendously in the playoffs. As a veteran who'd been through the battles previously, Campbell understood that his first job was to lock things down in his own end and I believe he did a very solid job of it. Sure, he had a couple of mistakes, let a couple of bouncing pucks get by him. But in all, I thought he was a plus defender from a strictly defensive perspective and showed that come crunch time, Campbell understood what was needed to win.

This year I see Campbell having an even better season - maybe not statistically, but certainly in his impact on the Hawks. No longer is he the big free agent signee nor much of a focus of the team. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, and Huet will all get far greater scrutiny from the fans and media. I think that will allow Campbell to settle in to what he does best and finally make people see what an asset he is.

Hjalmarsson #4
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 14:59 ATOI in 21 games

After getting into 13 games when the Hawks defense was decimated late in 07-08, the Hammer was buried in Rockford all season as surprise contributors Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker became early season regulars. But when Wisniewski was traded to the Ducks for Pahlsson, HJ jumped over Johnson and never looked back.

Looking nowhere near the 6-3 he's listed at (nor the 194 lbs), the baby-faced blueliner showed impressive grit and tenacity, focusing his game on the defensive end and turning himself into a reliable player worthy of significant minutes by the time the postseason rolled around. There he continued to develop and at no time was the Hammer a detriment to the team - an impressive feat for a 21-year old with so little experience playing in the ever-demanding environment of a Stanley Cup playoff run.

Sure, he still makes his mistakes and isn't quite the stay-at-home rock you wish you'd have to pair with Campbell. But he's well on his way and could just be that guy come the playoffs. Everyone raves about him and from what I've seen its well-deserved. Given some maturity, confidence, and experience, I think the Hammer could definitely be a key piece to a long-awaited Cup run.

And that'd be a great thing on a lot of levels. It'd be outstanding to have a young stay-at-home type with some grit who isn't costing you a lot against the cap. But it'd also be nice to free Campbell up to be more of an offensive defenseman. Ideally, Campbell is skating with a guy who can cover his aggressiveness, as opposed to last year, where Campbell had to be both committing hard offensively and then also skating back to make up for a weak defender on his other side.

It seems clear that both Campbell and JQ respect HJ's ability to handle himself and Campbell's rushes, and I'd say I agree. I think this kid continues to elevate his game and does become a vital piece of the Hawks blue line going forward.

Barker #25
Age: 23
08-09: 6 G, 34 A, -6, 18:21 ATOI in 68 games

While Skille's daily up-and-down roster maneuvering this year is about the best evidence of how stupid the NHL cap is, the fact that Barker had to wait around in the AHL to start last season is pretty good too. After a 07-08 in which he had 6 goals and 12 assists in only 45 games, Barker clearly deserved to be an everyday NHLer. But due to the cap, he was forced to miss the first weeks of the season as the Hawks sorted out their finances, before finally coming up and making a major impact on the offensive end.

His 5 PPG and 24 PPA both lead the team, and they were well-earned. Barker is definitely a strong player on the point, at least in JQ's system, which calls on the blueliners to throw the puck on net early and often. Barker also was solid 5-on-5, showing solid skills carrying the puck up-ice and finding open teammates.

However, Barker has and probably always will leave a heck of a lot to be desired on defense. He did step up physically, both using his length and size to his advantage and in getting into fights and tussles to keep the other team honest. However, he made fartoo many mental and physical errors, many of them leading directly to goals against.

A lack of confidence and intensity always seemed to be holding Barker back, but now those things seem to be behind him. However, he still hasn't figured out how to be a good defensive-defenseman, or even a capable one, and for that reason I think the Hawks would be wise to make Barker one of their first cap casualties. The offense he brings is rare and valuable, but someone has to go and I think Barker's cap number and defensive issues put him at the bottom of the list of valuable Hawks.

Don't get me wrong, though. While he's still in a Hawks uni, Barker remains an asset. I'm just saying he's less of one than the other great players they have and someone has to go. In the meantime though, I see Barker continuing to develop on both ends of the ice, even as he continues to make mistakes on both ends, and be an asset for the Hawks this year in much the same way he was last year. I don't foresee any great leap forward, but just a repeat of last year will mean Barker has done what the Hawks needed of him.

Ideally I'd like to see Barker paired with a strong defender with some athleticism (I think the Hammer could develop into that very guy). Do that and I think the Hawks would get the most out of Barker that could rightfully be expected.

Sopel #5
Age: 32
08-09: 1 G, 1 A, -4, 13:49 ATOI in 23 games

I have no idea what to make of this guy. Last year was a total zero for Sopel, as injuries and the team's lack of confidence in him essentially made him a non-entity after the first month. The early reports this year are that significant injuries which weren't publicized (as is the practice in the NHL) really hindered him, but that now he's ready to contribute again.

On some level you can believe that - often times unpublished injuries really hold a guy back and Sopel does have a solid-looking track record. Before last year, the previous six seasons looked like this - 8 G and 17 A, 7 G and 30 A, 10 G and 32 A, 2 G and 26 A, 5 G and 23 A, and finally 1 G and 19 A in 07-08 with the Hawks. Throughout that period he had an ATOI over 20 minutes and overall was a plus, including a +9 that season with the Hawks. Those numbers speak to a guy who is capable of being a Top 6 defender on a good club.

However, while I can see a bad shoulder injury like Sopel supposedly had resulting in his many mishandled pucks last year, how does that explain how slow, out of position, and clueless he seemed out there?

Even when Sopel seemed like he might be a solid stay-at-home cagey veteran type in 07-08, he still was clearly very slow and an ugly site to behold on the ice. Last year he looked as bad out there as any defender I've ever seen get regular ice time. So what to expect from this year?

I honestly have no idea. The Hawks seem committed to him, but how much of that is to reestablish his value so they can dump the $2M+ he makes this year and next and replace him with some more youngsters for now and maybe a short term acquisition at the trade deadline? Personally I hope that's the plan, because despite the track record, these days I don't see Sopel being a Top 6 defender on a winning club. I'd much rather see him be their 7th defenseman while a kid like Hendry gets the chance to prove he's a viable player.

If JQ is committed to Sopel and/or they really don't have any other alternatives, then I'd at least ask that he be paired with Campbell. Sopel is a pure stay-at-home type with a decent shot from the point who struggles due to a lack of speed. This would give Campbell a physical partner who hangs back while he rushes, but also could can take advantage of the space opened up at the point. On the flipsie, Campbell's speed allows him to make up for Sopel's total lack thereof.

Hendry #6
Age: 25
08-09: 0 G, 0 A, -1, 10:06 ATOI in 9 games

Hendry, like the Hammer, profited from the injury-plagued defensive unit the Hawks had in 07-08 to get some serious ice time. He appeared in 40 games and skated over 17 minutes per game.

However, last year he took a major step back, making the club out of training camp only to be passed over by journeymen like Walker and Aaron Johnson, as well on the prospect list by HJ. This year Hendry again made the team out of camp, but is sitting behind Sopel.

So what do the Hawks have here? Hard to say, but as I mentioned above, I'd prefer seeing if he can be a legitimate defender to watching Sopel labor away out there. At best Sopel is a contributor this year who is dumped next year as the Hawks free up cap space. So with no future and doubts about his abilities, why is Sopel getting ice time over Hendry, who just might emerge, a la HJ, when given regular ice time?

Again, hopefully the Sopel experiment is a short term thing - that he is either traded or waived once he shows himself at least as a capable NHLer, freeing the Hawks from his $2M+ hit this year and next. At that point I'm curious to see if Hendry, who has now bypassed the recently cut Aaron Johnson, can elevate to a legit NHL blueliner.


Huet #39
Age: 34
08-09: 20-15, 2.53 GAA, .909 Sv % in 41 games

I've been perplexed by the complete lack of faith Hawks fans are showing in Huet. Two key points are completely being overlooked here:

1) Huet has an undeniably strong regular season track record, finishing in the Top 10 in GAA or Sv % in multiple seasons throughout his career (including in 05-06, when he lead the league in Sv %).

2) Huet was very solid in the regular season for the Hawks last year, with GAA and Sv % numbers that put him in the top half of the league.

I won't deny that Huet is a MAJOR question mark when it comes to the Hawks winning the Cup. But those questions shouldn't arise until we reach the post-season, somewhere Huet has yet to accomplish anything.

That's not to say Huet has choked in the playoffs. In 05-06 he played very well for the Canadiens, but got no support and lost in the first round 4-2. In 07-08 he was capable for the Caps, but lost a heart-breaking 7 games series again in the first round.

So here's what you should expect from Huet - he's not a workhorse, only once starting more than half his teams games. But he can be anywhere from good to great as your #1 during the regular season. And come the playoffs, he so far has been capable, but not overwhelming.

Would I prefer a guy with more post-season success on his resume in net? Of course. But I definitely didn't want Khabi back. Khabi couldn't stay healthy and got hurt when it mattered most - down the stretch in 07-08 and in the Detroit series last year. And the alternatives out there are no better than Huet, in fact probably clearly worse.

So give the Frenchie a chance and assume he'll get it done in the regular season. Then come the playoffs, we can all cast our collective doubts while we hope that with a far better supporting cast than he's ever had before, Huet is good enough to take us to the promised land.

Niemi #31
Age: 26
08-09: 1-1, 3.40 GAA, .846 Sv % in 3 games

Crawford #50
Age: 24
08-09: No NHL statistics

Signed out of Finland for a decent chunk of change last year, Niemi spent the year in the AHL adjusting to the North American style of play. He did ably - didn't set the world on fire, but also was good enough to be brought back again this year. Crawford looked pretty tough in 07-08 filling in for an injured Khabi for five games, but last season he also was stuck in the AHL, where he was promising but didn't blow anyone away.

Combined, these two did enough to make the Hawks confident that they had a respectable pairing for Huet, allowing them to let Khabi walk. Much like last year, through training camp this year neither had done anything to really set themselves apart, but both remain viable #2 or even future #1 options.

But can either of these guys deliver on that promise of unseating Huet as the #1, be it now or in a season or two? Who's to say - goalies are notoriously hard to predict. They are very streaky and often times are successful based as much on the team and system in front of them as anything else.

At the very least Niemi and Crawford seem capable of being able back-ups (something Huet absolutely needs). And between them, the Hawks have two shots to either catch a hot hand or luck into a guy who develops into a legit #1 in the NHL.

One thing to remember - it's not unheard of for a rookie goaltender to come in and unseat a proven vet. In fact, that happens fairly regularly in the NHL. So while I'm not counting on either of these two to do that - both because of my faith in Huet and my doubts in them - I do consider it a possibility. If one gets in a groove and Huet does struggle, the win-now attitude the Hawks clearly have will force JQ to ride the hot hand. And like many a team before them, the Hawks could just ride an unknown rookie to post-season success.