With game 12 coming up on Thursday, here are some of the things I've been thinking about lately with the Hawks:
-Glad to see Huet get it turned around again. I said it in my preseason preview and to whomever would listen - don't worry about this guy in the regular season. He's got a very long, very accomplished track record there. The fact that the fans and media don't realize this shows just how out of touch and ignorant Hawks fans are. That's no rip on us fans, just a lingering effect of us all being turned off by a decade plus of terrible hockey thanks to drunken Dollar Bill Wirtz.
That's not to say that Huet isn't at risk to be a bust, it's just that he's accomplished enough (including last year w/ the Hawks) to not have everyone doubt the guy after a couple of rough games to start the season. Goalies lose their stuff all the time, but it's gonna take more than a week or two of the season for me to worry about Huet.
Having said that, come playoff time, all bets are off. This guy has never been out of the first round, so that's when the well-founded doubting should begin.
-I can't properly express the amount of love I have for Versteeg. He is SO talented and does so much good on the ice. So far this year it hasn't brought him huge numbers, but it seems like every other shift he's out there he does something noteworthy. And it's not like his 2 goals and 5 assists are anything to scoff at, especially paired with a +5. But I've got a feeling those great plays will start turning into more goals (for him and his linemates) and before long this guy will start to have some big numbers that will get him the high end respect he deserves.
Especially now that JQ seems to have listened to my suggestion and thrown him on a line with capable offensive players in Bolland and Ladd. I really hope that line stays together for a while, because I fully believe they can be a real 2nd line force that also gives you strength in the defensive zone. That's a rare combo.
-On another Versteeg-related note, seeing him step up after Toews got laid out was just one more reason to love this guy. However, it also brings up a very necessary concern w/ Burish and Eager out - the Hawks just don't have the enforcer presence necessary to a professional hockey team.
Look, I'm not saying the Hawks need a talent-less goon out there, nor do I see any advantage such a player provides you. However, if you don't have anyone who can consistently get into fights and keep the other team honest, then you end up at a real disadvantage.
Two years ago the Hawks were missing a real heavyweight, but young scrappers like Burish and Wisniewski did everything they could to make up for it. It wasn't ideal, but it worked well enough. Last year Eager finally gave them a real enforcer while also being a good skater, the perfect mix.
But with Eager maybe looking at a long layoff due to yet another concussion, Burish out pretty much all regular season, and Wisniewski a member of the Ducks, the Hawks need to find another answer.
It's not Seabrook, who's far too valuable on the blueline to be missing 5-minute chunks, not to mention that he's suffering from some concussion issues of his own. It's not Buff, who's long said he's no fighter and really doesn't have the mentality necessary (and might just be entering the too valuable to lose zone himself, given his 5 goals in 11 games).
With the 6th defensive spot a bit of a mess (currently a mix of the unproven Hendry and horrendous Sopel), you could look to some mediocre big physical type who's floating around the AHL to give you that presence. But with Seabrook missing time, I'm not sure you want another sub-par defender out there.
One possible option is Brouwer, who's got the size and has shown an increasing appreciation for the need to become a scrappy role player. He may not be the best fighter, but just the willingness to drop the gloves would be enough. If Brouwer would add that element to his game, he might just start to deserve all the ice time JQ loves giving him.
And with so many forwards out of the lineup right now (Toews, Hossa, Eager, Burish), there definitely is some room for a big physical type on the 4th line. So again, maybe some mediocre guy floating around the AHL can come up and play an enforcer role without hurting you too bad with his lack of skill. Especially because the alternatives - Skille, Dowell, Bickell - have been underwhelming, why not?
I know it's not easy to find a capable skater who can throw down, but that 4th liner probably only gets 5-6 minutes a game - you can't find someone who can fill those and give you a physical presence for a few months during the regular season without hurting you too bad?
-Speaking of underwhelming, I am so done with Sopel. While I had some hopes last year was a fluke, his -4 through 10 games seems to suggest what I saw last year is what Sopel is - a totally worthless skater incapable of playing at an NHL level. Not a single other Hawks defenseman has below a +1, yet there's Sopel at -4 despite far less ice time. Doesn't that say it all?
I know he's got this year and next on his deal at $2.33 per, but it's time the Hawks just bite the bullet on the salary, farm him out (which clear his number from the salary cap), and open up that 6th spot for someone who might develop.
Is that guy Hendry? No idea. But let's give him regular PT and see, like we did with The Hammer last year. And if it's not Hendry, try out one of the other guys down in the minors. Or pick someone up off waivers. You never know what you'll find (Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker were nice garbage heap pick-ups last year, while The Hammer didn't come on until almost March of last season).
Sopel is done. I don't care that Seabrook is out and the D is thin - send Sopel down to the minors and try someone - anyone - else in that spot.
-It didn't get any fanfare, but I like the addition of Andrew Ebbet from the Ducks. Len Ziehm (the Sun-Times Hawks writer) had a good article that discussed how Ebbet went from their #2 center to the dog house through no real fault of his own. When the Ducks added Saku Koivu, Ebbet was moved to a wing. But he didn't fit there, as he's a smaller guy (5-10, 180) who isn't very comfortable with the position, while the Ducks like big physical wings along the boards.
That might have created a real opportunity for the Hawks. In only 48 games as a rookie last year, Ebbet had 8 goals and 24 assists (including 6 PP tallies and 5 PP helpers). Given a full season, we're talking 14 goals and 43 assists - that's the type of production Ladd gave the Hawks last year - in fact, even better!
Is Ebbet really that type of player? Seems unlikely, as he was waived rather than traded for anything of value. But he showed he was capable of producing on some level. And more importantly, I liked the look of his +8. If he can give me around 7 goals and 20 assists while playing the solid two-way game that +/- suggests, Ebbet becomes a very valuable 4th line center.
With Burish and Eager possibly gone for a while, that's something the Hawks really need. In the short term, with Toews out for a bit, Ebbet becomes even more valuable as an offensively capable center. With a Sharp and/or Kane on his wing, Ebbet could end up being plenty productive until Toews comes back, and then settle into a 3rd or 4th line slot.
What I'm worried about is that the Hawks try to use him on a wing. He's made it clear he's not comfortable there and that's not where you're gonna get the most out of him. Frasier is no great shakes as the 4th line center - so when Toews gets back, why not force him to a wing? Frasier's a scrappy type who's not overly impressive in the face-off circle, so why can't he move over?
That way Ebbet, who's shown actual talent, could remain at his center spot and maybe turn that 4th line into a little bit of an asset. With the loss of Eager and Burish, the Hawks could certainly use an upgrade down there.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Predicting 2009-2010 (Part III)
Part III - Defensemen
Here before the season I gave some introductory thoughts on how saw the Hawks regular season shaking out and then here last week I reviewed my thoughts on the forwards and what I expected from them.
Now, a mere two weeks into the season, I finally get to the blueliners:
Keith #2
Age: 26
08-09: 8 G, 36 A, +33, 25:43 ATOI in 77 games
The straw that stirs the drink, I've argued before (echoing the thoughts of many other learned Hawks fans) that Keith is the most important player on the team. I think in the playoffs Seabrook really took a step forward on both ends and that Campbell showed himself a capable veteran on his own end, but the fact remains that Keith is still the heart and soul of both the defense and the squad as a whole.
That Keith has been a plus thirty in each of the last two seasons while leading the team in ice time and always matching up against the other team's top skaters tells you all you need to know. This guy is an elite defender who may not get the hype but certainly deserves it.
The Hawks will soon lock up Keith longterm and chew up a boatload of salary cap space in doing so, but we'll be happy campers for it. He really is an offensive and defensive force who gives every bit of himself on every shift, every night. I think the Hawks players would agree that Keith would be the last guy they'd want to lose.
This year I see more of the same from Keith - tons of ice time, great plus-minus, and a very solid point total as he sparks a potent offense. Don't underestimate that impact of his game - not just Keith, but the entire Hawks defense. That most of the Hawks blueliners can really skate, pass, and shoot makes the already skilled group of forwards even more productive. Skating a bit lately myself I've come to realize the huge difference having offensively capable defenders can be. Keith and Co. fill that bill as good as any unit in the league.
Seabrook #7
Age: 24
08-09: 8 G, 18 A, +23, 23:19 ATOI in 82 games
First and foremost, I have to admit my bias for Seabrook, as he's my 3-month old daughter's favorite player. Being a sports fan and avid athlete myself, I'm of the opinion every one needs their own number (although mine has changed often throughout the years) and thus decided that Lily's is 7, as she was born on 7-7. So when it came time to pick her favorite Blackhawk, Seabrook was an obvious choice.
This choice was cemented when he scored an OT goal to seal the greatest comeback in Hawks history in what just happened to be Lily's first Hawks game (I found an actual baby Hawks sweater online and everything - not a tshirt that looks like a jersey, an actual hockey jersey that's been shrunk down to baby size).
But I think having Seabrook as her first favorite Hawk will serve Lily well. As I mentioned above, Seabrook took things to another level last year in the playoffs. He's always been a solid sidekick to Keith, but in the post-season he elevated his importance on the power play and on regular shifts against the top players every night.
While all the focus has been on the cap space hijinx the Hawks will have to pull off to keep the Big Three (Kane, Toews, and Keith) in the fold after this year w/o losing major pieces, it's also scary to note that Seabrook will put the team in a similar place the following season. And the way he's been playing, I don't see how the Hawks can let him go.
With that big shot and quiet confidence from the point, Seabrook has become an offensive factor. And with good size, solid speed, and a great feel for the ice, he remains a defensive zone presence. I think this year Seabrook will elevate to top tier status and hope that's recognized by Team Canada (tho giving the guy an extra two weeks off would have its own rewards).
I just hope the Hawks can find a way to sacrifice enough of the cap space with the likes of Barker, Buff, et al to ensure that Seabrook joins Toews, Kane, Hossa, Bolland, Versteeg, Campbell, and Keith as longterm core Hawks.
Campbell #51
Age: 30
08-09: 7 G, 45 A, +5, 22:34 ATOI in 82 games
With all this talk of salary cap casualties to come, it's easy to point to Campbell's behemoth contract and his lack of awe-inspiring impact last season as a major misstep for the Hawks. But as I've said before, I don't full agree. I do agree that the Hawks screwed up when they signed Campbell last off-season. But I believe the mistake was in not offering him a 12-year deal to lessen the salary cap impact, as has become the norm now.
At a $5M hit instead of a $7M, Campbell is looking a bit better. And when you really delve into the value and rarity of a blazing fast offensive defenseman of his type, you start to see that from a purely hockey standpoint, adding Campbell into this mix was a real victory for the Hawks.
As I said above, one of the reasons the Hawks offense is so potent is because they have so many defensemen making it all go. And Campbell is definitely the best of the group in doing that. In case you thought Campbell had a disappointing season last year, consider this - he set career highs in assists, points, games, and shots on goal.
Yep, career highs. The Hawks paid him based on an impressive body of work, but Campbell came out and out-performed that body. So how could this guy be considered a disappointment by so many Hawks fans?
What was most encouraging to me was that Campbell elevated his defense tremendously in the playoffs. As a veteran who'd been through the battles previously, Campbell understood that his first job was to lock things down in his own end and I believe he did a very solid job of it. Sure, he had a couple of mistakes, let a couple of bouncing pucks get by him. But in all, I thought he was a plus defender from a strictly defensive perspective and showed that come crunch time, Campbell understood what was needed to win.
This year I see Campbell having an even better season - maybe not statistically, but certainly in his impact on the Hawks. No longer is he the big free agent signee nor much of a focus of the team. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, and Huet will all get far greater scrutiny from the fans and media. I think that will allow Campbell to settle in to what he does best and finally make people see what an asset he is.
Hjalmarsson #4
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 14:59 ATOI in 21 games
After getting into 13 games when the Hawks defense was decimated late in 07-08, the Hammer was buried in Rockford all season as surprise contributors Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker became early season regulars. But when Wisniewski was traded to the Ducks for Pahlsson, HJ jumped over Johnson and never looked back.
Looking nowhere near the 6-3 he's listed at (nor the 194 lbs), the baby-faced blueliner showed impressive grit and tenacity, focusing his game on the defensive end and turning himself into a reliable player worthy of significant minutes by the time the postseason rolled around. There he continued to develop and at no time was the Hammer a detriment to the team - an impressive feat for a 21-year old with so little experience playing in the ever-demanding environment of a Stanley Cup playoff run.
Sure, he still makes his mistakes and isn't quite the stay-at-home rock you wish you'd have to pair with Campbell. But he's well on his way and could just be that guy come the playoffs. Everyone raves about him and from what I've seen its well-deserved. Given some maturity, confidence, and experience, I think the Hammer could definitely be a key piece to a long-awaited Cup run.
And that'd be a great thing on a lot of levels. It'd be outstanding to have a young stay-at-home type with some grit who isn't costing you a lot against the cap. But it'd also be nice to free Campbell up to be more of an offensive defenseman. Ideally, Campbell is skating with a guy who can cover his aggressiveness, as opposed to last year, where Campbell had to be both committing hard offensively and then also skating back to make up for a weak defender on his other side.
It seems clear that both Campbell and JQ respect HJ's ability to handle himself and Campbell's rushes, and I'd say I agree. I think this kid continues to elevate his game and does become a vital piece of the Hawks blue line going forward.
Barker #25
Age: 23
08-09: 6 G, 34 A, -6, 18:21 ATOI in 68 games
While Skille's daily up-and-down roster maneuvering this year is about the best evidence of how stupid the NHL cap is, the fact that Barker had to wait around in the AHL to start last season is pretty good too. After a 07-08 in which he had 6 goals and 12 assists in only 45 games, Barker clearly deserved to be an everyday NHLer. But due to the cap, he was forced to miss the first weeks of the season as the Hawks sorted out their finances, before finally coming up and making a major impact on the offensive end.
His 5 PPG and 24 PPA both lead the team, and they were well-earned. Barker is definitely a strong player on the point, at least in JQ's system, which calls on the blueliners to throw the puck on net early and often. Barker also was solid 5-on-5, showing solid skills carrying the puck up-ice and finding open teammates.
However, Barker has and probably always will leave a heck of a lot to be desired on defense. He did step up physically, both using his length and size to his advantage and in getting into fights and tussles to keep the other team honest. However, he made fartoo many mental and physical errors, many of them leading directly to goals against.
A lack of confidence and intensity always seemed to be holding Barker back, but now those things seem to be behind him. However, he still hasn't figured out how to be a good defensive-defenseman, or even a capable one, and for that reason I think the Hawks would be wise to make Barker one of their first cap casualties. The offense he brings is rare and valuable, but someone has to go and I think Barker's cap number and defensive issues put him at the bottom of the list of valuable Hawks.
Don't get me wrong, though. While he's still in a Hawks uni, Barker remains an asset. I'm just saying he's less of one than the other great players they have and someone has to go. In the meantime though, I see Barker continuing to develop on both ends of the ice, even as he continues to make mistakes on both ends, and be an asset for the Hawks this year in much the same way he was last year. I don't foresee any great leap forward, but just a repeat of last year will mean Barker has done what the Hawks needed of him.
Ideally I'd like to see Barker paired with a strong defender with some athleticism (I think the Hammer could develop into that very guy). Do that and I think the Hawks would get the most out of Barker that could rightfully be expected.
Sopel #5
Age: 32
08-09: 1 G, 1 A, -4, 13:49 ATOI in 23 games
I have no idea what to make of this guy. Last year was a total zero for Sopel, as injuries and the team's lack of confidence in him essentially made him a non-entity after the first month. The early reports this year are that significant injuries which weren't publicized (as is the practice in the NHL) really hindered him, but that now he's ready to contribute again.
On some level you can believe that - often times unpublished injuries really hold a guy back and Sopel does have a solid-looking track record. Before last year, the previous six seasons looked like this - 8 G and 17 A, 7 G and 30 A, 10 G and 32 A, 2 G and 26 A, 5 G and 23 A, and finally 1 G and 19 A in 07-08 with the Hawks. Throughout that period he had an ATOI over 20 minutes and overall was a plus, including a +9 that season with the Hawks. Those numbers speak to a guy who is capable of being a Top 6 defender on a good club.
However, while I can see a bad shoulder injury like Sopel supposedly had resulting in his many mishandled pucks last year, how does that explain how slow, out of position, and clueless he seemed out there?
Even when Sopel seemed like he might be a solid stay-at-home cagey veteran type in 07-08, he still was clearly very slow and an ugly site to behold on the ice. Last year he looked as bad out there as any defender I've ever seen get regular ice time. So what to expect from this year?
I honestly have no idea. The Hawks seem committed to him, but how much of that is to reestablish his value so they can dump the $2M+ he makes this year and next and replace him with some more youngsters for now and maybe a short term acquisition at the trade deadline? Personally I hope that's the plan, because despite the track record, these days I don't see Sopel being a Top 6 defender on a winning club. I'd much rather see him be their 7th defenseman while a kid like Hendry gets the chance to prove he's a viable player.
If JQ is committed to Sopel and/or they really don't have any other alternatives, then I'd at least ask that he be paired with Campbell. Sopel is a pure stay-at-home type with a decent shot from the point who struggles due to a lack of speed. This would give Campbell a physical partner who hangs back while he rushes, but also could can take advantage of the space opened up at the point. On the flipsie, Campbell's speed allows him to make up for Sopel's total lack thereof.
Hendry #6
Age: 25
08-09: 0 G, 0 A, -1, 10:06 ATOI in 9 games
Hendry, like the Hammer, profited from the injury-plagued defensive unit the Hawks had in 07-08 to get some serious ice time. He appeared in 40 games and skated over 17 minutes per game.
However, last year he took a major step back, making the club out of training camp only to be passed over by journeymen like Walker and Aaron Johnson, as well on the prospect list by HJ. This year Hendry again made the team out of camp, but is sitting behind Sopel.
So what do the Hawks have here? Hard to say, but as I mentioned above, I'd prefer seeing if he can be a legitimate defender to watching Sopel labor away out there. At best Sopel is a contributor this year who is dumped next year as the Hawks free up cap space. So with no future and doubts about his abilities, why is Sopel getting ice time over Hendry, who just might emerge, a la HJ, when given regular ice time?
Again, hopefully the Sopel experiment is a short term thing - that he is either traded or waived once he shows himself at least as a capable NHLer, freeing the Hawks from his $2M+ hit this year and next. At that point I'm curious to see if Hendry, who has now bypassed the recently cut Aaron Johnson, can elevate to a legit NHL blueliner.
Huet #39
Age: 34
08-09: 20-15, 2.53 GAA, .909 Sv % in 41 games
I've been perplexed by the complete lack of faith Hawks fans are showing in Huet. Two key points are completely being overlooked here:
1) Huet has an undeniably strong regular season track record, finishing in the Top 10 in GAA or Sv % in multiple seasons throughout his career (including in 05-06, when he lead the league in Sv %).
2) Huet was very solid in the regular season for the Hawks last year, with GAA and Sv % numbers that put him in the top half of the league.
I won't deny that Huet is a MAJOR question mark when it comes to the Hawks winning the Cup. But those questions shouldn't arise until we reach the post-season, somewhere Huet has yet to accomplish anything.
That's not to say Huet has choked in the playoffs. In 05-06 he played very well for the Canadiens, but got no support and lost in the first round 4-2. In 07-08 he was capable for the Caps, but lost a heart-breaking 7 games series again in the first round.
So here's what you should expect from Huet - he's not a workhorse, only once starting more than half his teams games. But he can be anywhere from good to great as your #1 during the regular season. And come the playoffs, he so far has been capable, but not overwhelming.
Would I prefer a guy with more post-season success on his resume in net? Of course. But I definitely didn't want Khabi back. Khabi couldn't stay healthy and got hurt when it mattered most - down the stretch in 07-08 and in the Detroit series last year. And the alternatives out there are no better than Huet, in fact probably clearly worse.
So give the Frenchie a chance and assume he'll get it done in the regular season. Then come the playoffs, we can all cast our collective doubts while we hope that with a far better supporting cast than he's ever had before, Huet is good enough to take us to the promised land.
Niemi #31
Age: 26
08-09: 1-1, 3.40 GAA, .846 Sv % in 3 games
Crawford #50
Age: 24
08-09: No NHL statistics
Signed out of Finland for a decent chunk of change last year, Niemi spent the year in the AHL adjusting to the North American style of play. He did ably - didn't set the world on fire, but also was good enough to be brought back again this year. Crawford looked pretty tough in 07-08 filling in for an injured Khabi for five games, but last season he also was stuck in the AHL, where he was promising but didn't blow anyone away.
Combined, these two did enough to make the Hawks confident that they had a respectable pairing for Huet, allowing them to let Khabi walk. Much like last year, through training camp this year neither had done anything to really set themselves apart, but both remain viable #2 or even future #1 options.
But can either of these guys deliver on that promise of unseating Huet as the #1, be it now or in a season or two? Who's to say - goalies are notoriously hard to predict. They are very streaky and often times are successful based as much on the team and system in front of them as anything else.
At the very least Niemi and Crawford seem capable of being able back-ups (something Huet absolutely needs). And between them, the Hawks have two shots to either catch a hot hand or luck into a guy who develops into a legit #1 in the NHL.
One thing to remember - it's not unheard of for a rookie goaltender to come in and unseat a proven vet. In fact, that happens fairly regularly in the NHL. So while I'm not counting on either of these two to do that - both because of my faith in Huet and my doubts in them - I do consider it a possibility. If one gets in a groove and Huet does struggle, the win-now attitude the Hawks clearly have will force JQ to ride the hot hand. And like many a team before them, the Hawks could just ride an unknown rookie to post-season success.
Here before the season I gave some introductory thoughts on how saw the Hawks regular season shaking out and then here last week I reviewed my thoughts on the forwards and what I expected from them.
Now, a mere two weeks into the season, I finally get to the blueliners:
Keith #2
Age: 26
08-09: 8 G, 36 A, +33, 25:43 ATOI in 77 games
The straw that stirs the drink, I've argued before (echoing the thoughts of many other learned Hawks fans) that Keith is the most important player on the team. I think in the playoffs Seabrook really took a step forward on both ends and that Campbell showed himself a capable veteran on his own end, but the fact remains that Keith is still the heart and soul of both the defense and the squad as a whole.
That Keith has been a plus thirty in each of the last two seasons while leading the team in ice time and always matching up against the other team's top skaters tells you all you need to know. This guy is an elite defender who may not get the hype but certainly deserves it.
The Hawks will soon lock up Keith longterm and chew up a boatload of salary cap space in doing so, but we'll be happy campers for it. He really is an offensive and defensive force who gives every bit of himself on every shift, every night. I think the Hawks players would agree that Keith would be the last guy they'd want to lose.
This year I see more of the same from Keith - tons of ice time, great plus-minus, and a very solid point total as he sparks a potent offense. Don't underestimate that impact of his game - not just Keith, but the entire Hawks defense. That most of the Hawks blueliners can really skate, pass, and shoot makes the already skilled group of forwards even more productive. Skating a bit lately myself I've come to realize the huge difference having offensively capable defenders can be. Keith and Co. fill that bill as good as any unit in the league.
Seabrook #7
Age: 24
08-09: 8 G, 18 A, +23, 23:19 ATOI in 82 games
First and foremost, I have to admit my bias for Seabrook, as he's my 3-month old daughter's favorite player. Being a sports fan and avid athlete myself, I'm of the opinion every one needs their own number (although mine has changed often throughout the years) and thus decided that Lily's is 7, as she was born on 7-7. So when it came time to pick her favorite Blackhawk, Seabrook was an obvious choice.
This choice was cemented when he scored an OT goal to seal the greatest comeback in Hawks history in what just happened to be Lily's first Hawks game (I found an actual baby Hawks sweater online and everything - not a tshirt that looks like a jersey, an actual hockey jersey that's been shrunk down to baby size).
But I think having Seabrook as her first favorite Hawk will serve Lily well. As I mentioned above, Seabrook took things to another level last year in the playoffs. He's always been a solid sidekick to Keith, but in the post-season he elevated his importance on the power play and on regular shifts against the top players every night.
While all the focus has been on the cap space hijinx the Hawks will have to pull off to keep the Big Three (Kane, Toews, and Keith) in the fold after this year w/o losing major pieces, it's also scary to note that Seabrook will put the team in a similar place the following season. And the way he's been playing, I don't see how the Hawks can let him go.
With that big shot and quiet confidence from the point, Seabrook has become an offensive factor. And with good size, solid speed, and a great feel for the ice, he remains a defensive zone presence. I think this year Seabrook will elevate to top tier status and hope that's recognized by Team Canada (tho giving the guy an extra two weeks off would have its own rewards).
I just hope the Hawks can find a way to sacrifice enough of the cap space with the likes of Barker, Buff, et al to ensure that Seabrook joins Toews, Kane, Hossa, Bolland, Versteeg, Campbell, and Keith as longterm core Hawks.
Campbell #51
Age: 30
08-09: 7 G, 45 A, +5, 22:34 ATOI in 82 games
With all this talk of salary cap casualties to come, it's easy to point to Campbell's behemoth contract and his lack of awe-inspiring impact last season as a major misstep for the Hawks. But as I've said before, I don't full agree. I do agree that the Hawks screwed up when they signed Campbell last off-season. But I believe the mistake was in not offering him a 12-year deal to lessen the salary cap impact, as has become the norm now.
At a $5M hit instead of a $7M, Campbell is looking a bit better. And when you really delve into the value and rarity of a blazing fast offensive defenseman of his type, you start to see that from a purely hockey standpoint, adding Campbell into this mix was a real victory for the Hawks.
As I said above, one of the reasons the Hawks offense is so potent is because they have so many defensemen making it all go. And Campbell is definitely the best of the group in doing that. In case you thought Campbell had a disappointing season last year, consider this - he set career highs in assists, points, games, and shots on goal.
Yep, career highs. The Hawks paid him based on an impressive body of work, but Campbell came out and out-performed that body. So how could this guy be considered a disappointment by so many Hawks fans?
What was most encouraging to me was that Campbell elevated his defense tremendously in the playoffs. As a veteran who'd been through the battles previously, Campbell understood that his first job was to lock things down in his own end and I believe he did a very solid job of it. Sure, he had a couple of mistakes, let a couple of bouncing pucks get by him. But in all, I thought he was a plus defender from a strictly defensive perspective and showed that come crunch time, Campbell understood what was needed to win.
This year I see Campbell having an even better season - maybe not statistically, but certainly in his impact on the Hawks. No longer is he the big free agent signee nor much of a focus of the team. Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, and Huet will all get far greater scrutiny from the fans and media. I think that will allow Campbell to settle in to what he does best and finally make people see what an asset he is.
Hjalmarsson #4
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 2 A, +4, 14:59 ATOI in 21 games
After getting into 13 games when the Hawks defense was decimated late in 07-08, the Hammer was buried in Rockford all season as surprise contributors Aaron Johnson and Matt Walker became early season regulars. But when Wisniewski was traded to the Ducks for Pahlsson, HJ jumped over Johnson and never looked back.
Looking nowhere near the 6-3 he's listed at (nor the 194 lbs), the baby-faced blueliner showed impressive grit and tenacity, focusing his game on the defensive end and turning himself into a reliable player worthy of significant minutes by the time the postseason rolled around. There he continued to develop and at no time was the Hammer a detriment to the team - an impressive feat for a 21-year old with so little experience playing in the ever-demanding environment of a Stanley Cup playoff run.
Sure, he still makes his mistakes and isn't quite the stay-at-home rock you wish you'd have to pair with Campbell. But he's well on his way and could just be that guy come the playoffs. Everyone raves about him and from what I've seen its well-deserved. Given some maturity, confidence, and experience, I think the Hammer could definitely be a key piece to a long-awaited Cup run.
And that'd be a great thing on a lot of levels. It'd be outstanding to have a young stay-at-home type with some grit who isn't costing you a lot against the cap. But it'd also be nice to free Campbell up to be more of an offensive defenseman. Ideally, Campbell is skating with a guy who can cover his aggressiveness, as opposed to last year, where Campbell had to be both committing hard offensively and then also skating back to make up for a weak defender on his other side.
It seems clear that both Campbell and JQ respect HJ's ability to handle himself and Campbell's rushes, and I'd say I agree. I think this kid continues to elevate his game and does become a vital piece of the Hawks blue line going forward.
Barker #25
Age: 23
08-09: 6 G, 34 A, -6, 18:21 ATOI in 68 games
While Skille's daily up-and-down roster maneuvering this year is about the best evidence of how stupid the NHL cap is, the fact that Barker had to wait around in the AHL to start last season is pretty good too. After a 07-08 in which he had 6 goals and 12 assists in only 45 games, Barker clearly deserved to be an everyday NHLer. But due to the cap, he was forced to miss the first weeks of the season as the Hawks sorted out their finances, before finally coming up and making a major impact on the offensive end.
His 5 PPG and 24 PPA both lead the team, and they were well-earned. Barker is definitely a strong player on the point, at least in JQ's system, which calls on the blueliners to throw the puck on net early and often. Barker also was solid 5-on-5, showing solid skills carrying the puck up-ice and finding open teammates.
However, Barker has and probably always will leave a heck of a lot to be desired on defense. He did step up physically, both using his length and size to his advantage and in getting into fights and tussles to keep the other team honest. However, he made fartoo many mental and physical errors, many of them leading directly to goals against.
A lack of confidence and intensity always seemed to be holding Barker back, but now those things seem to be behind him. However, he still hasn't figured out how to be a good defensive-defenseman, or even a capable one, and for that reason I think the Hawks would be wise to make Barker one of their first cap casualties. The offense he brings is rare and valuable, but someone has to go and I think Barker's cap number and defensive issues put him at the bottom of the list of valuable Hawks.
Don't get me wrong, though. While he's still in a Hawks uni, Barker remains an asset. I'm just saying he's less of one than the other great players they have and someone has to go. In the meantime though, I see Barker continuing to develop on both ends of the ice, even as he continues to make mistakes on both ends, and be an asset for the Hawks this year in much the same way he was last year. I don't foresee any great leap forward, but just a repeat of last year will mean Barker has done what the Hawks needed of him.
Ideally I'd like to see Barker paired with a strong defender with some athleticism (I think the Hammer could develop into that very guy). Do that and I think the Hawks would get the most out of Barker that could rightfully be expected.
Sopel #5
Age: 32
08-09: 1 G, 1 A, -4, 13:49 ATOI in 23 games
I have no idea what to make of this guy. Last year was a total zero for Sopel, as injuries and the team's lack of confidence in him essentially made him a non-entity after the first month. The early reports this year are that significant injuries which weren't publicized (as is the practice in the NHL) really hindered him, but that now he's ready to contribute again.
On some level you can believe that - often times unpublished injuries really hold a guy back and Sopel does have a solid-looking track record. Before last year, the previous six seasons looked like this - 8 G and 17 A, 7 G and 30 A, 10 G and 32 A, 2 G and 26 A, 5 G and 23 A, and finally 1 G and 19 A in 07-08 with the Hawks. Throughout that period he had an ATOI over 20 minutes and overall was a plus, including a +9 that season with the Hawks. Those numbers speak to a guy who is capable of being a Top 6 defender on a good club.
However, while I can see a bad shoulder injury like Sopel supposedly had resulting in his many mishandled pucks last year, how does that explain how slow, out of position, and clueless he seemed out there?
Even when Sopel seemed like he might be a solid stay-at-home cagey veteran type in 07-08, he still was clearly very slow and an ugly site to behold on the ice. Last year he looked as bad out there as any defender I've ever seen get regular ice time. So what to expect from this year?
I honestly have no idea. The Hawks seem committed to him, but how much of that is to reestablish his value so they can dump the $2M+ he makes this year and next and replace him with some more youngsters for now and maybe a short term acquisition at the trade deadline? Personally I hope that's the plan, because despite the track record, these days I don't see Sopel being a Top 6 defender on a winning club. I'd much rather see him be their 7th defenseman while a kid like Hendry gets the chance to prove he's a viable player.
If JQ is committed to Sopel and/or they really don't have any other alternatives, then I'd at least ask that he be paired with Campbell. Sopel is a pure stay-at-home type with a decent shot from the point who struggles due to a lack of speed. This would give Campbell a physical partner who hangs back while he rushes, but also could can take advantage of the space opened up at the point. On the flipsie, Campbell's speed allows him to make up for Sopel's total lack thereof.
Hendry #6
Age: 25
08-09: 0 G, 0 A, -1, 10:06 ATOI in 9 games
Hendry, like the Hammer, profited from the injury-plagued defensive unit the Hawks had in 07-08 to get some serious ice time. He appeared in 40 games and skated over 17 minutes per game.
However, last year he took a major step back, making the club out of training camp only to be passed over by journeymen like Walker and Aaron Johnson, as well on the prospect list by HJ. This year Hendry again made the team out of camp, but is sitting behind Sopel.
So what do the Hawks have here? Hard to say, but as I mentioned above, I'd prefer seeing if he can be a legitimate defender to watching Sopel labor away out there. At best Sopel is a contributor this year who is dumped next year as the Hawks free up cap space. So with no future and doubts about his abilities, why is Sopel getting ice time over Hendry, who just might emerge, a la HJ, when given regular ice time?
Again, hopefully the Sopel experiment is a short term thing - that he is either traded or waived once he shows himself at least as a capable NHLer, freeing the Hawks from his $2M+ hit this year and next. At that point I'm curious to see if Hendry, who has now bypassed the recently cut Aaron Johnson, can elevate to a legit NHL blueliner.
Huet #39
Age: 34
08-09: 20-15, 2.53 GAA, .909 Sv % in 41 games
I've been perplexed by the complete lack of faith Hawks fans are showing in Huet. Two key points are completely being overlooked here:
1) Huet has an undeniably strong regular season track record, finishing in the Top 10 in GAA or Sv % in multiple seasons throughout his career (including in 05-06, when he lead the league in Sv %).
2) Huet was very solid in the regular season for the Hawks last year, with GAA and Sv % numbers that put him in the top half of the league.
I won't deny that Huet is a MAJOR question mark when it comes to the Hawks winning the Cup. But those questions shouldn't arise until we reach the post-season, somewhere Huet has yet to accomplish anything.
That's not to say Huet has choked in the playoffs. In 05-06 he played very well for the Canadiens, but got no support and lost in the first round 4-2. In 07-08 he was capable for the Caps, but lost a heart-breaking 7 games series again in the first round.
So here's what you should expect from Huet - he's not a workhorse, only once starting more than half his teams games. But he can be anywhere from good to great as your #1 during the regular season. And come the playoffs, he so far has been capable, but not overwhelming.
Would I prefer a guy with more post-season success on his resume in net? Of course. But I definitely didn't want Khabi back. Khabi couldn't stay healthy and got hurt when it mattered most - down the stretch in 07-08 and in the Detroit series last year. And the alternatives out there are no better than Huet, in fact probably clearly worse.
So give the Frenchie a chance and assume he'll get it done in the regular season. Then come the playoffs, we can all cast our collective doubts while we hope that with a far better supporting cast than he's ever had before, Huet is good enough to take us to the promised land.
Niemi #31
Age: 26
08-09: 1-1, 3.40 GAA, .846 Sv % in 3 games
Crawford #50
Age: 24
08-09: No NHL statistics
Signed out of Finland for a decent chunk of change last year, Niemi spent the year in the AHL adjusting to the North American style of play. He did ably - didn't set the world on fire, but also was good enough to be brought back again this year. Crawford looked pretty tough in 07-08 filling in for an injured Khabi for five games, but last season he also was stuck in the AHL, where he was promising but didn't blow anyone away.
Combined, these two did enough to make the Hawks confident that they had a respectable pairing for Huet, allowing them to let Khabi walk. Much like last year, through training camp this year neither had done anything to really set themselves apart, but both remain viable #2 or even future #1 options.
But can either of these guys deliver on that promise of unseating Huet as the #1, be it now or in a season or two? Who's to say - goalies are notoriously hard to predict. They are very streaky and often times are successful based as much on the team and system in front of them as anything else.
At the very least Niemi and Crawford seem capable of being able back-ups (something Huet absolutely needs). And between them, the Hawks have two shots to either catch a hot hand or luck into a guy who develops into a legit #1 in the NHL.
One thing to remember - it's not unheard of for a rookie goaltender to come in and unseat a proven vet. In fact, that happens fairly regularly in the NHL. So while I'm not counting on either of these two to do that - both because of my faith in Huet and my doubts in them - I do consider it a possibility. If one gets in a groove and Huet does struggle, the win-now attitude the Hawks clearly have will force JQ to ride the hot hand. And like many a team before them, the Hawks could just ride an unknown rookie to post-season success.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Predicting 2009-2010 (Part II)
Part II - Forwards
Here last week I touched on what I think will be effecting the team's play throughout the regular season. I should also add I think the trip to Europe will be a real plus, bringing an already tight young squad closer together. For a proven veteran team, such a long trip could be exhausting and distracting, but for a team still trying to establish itself, I think this sleep-away camp experience will be tremendous.
Now, to the forwards. Tomorrow - the defenders and goalies. The skaters are organized more or less in the lines/pairings I'd run out there:
Toews #19
Pos: C
Age: 21
08-09: 34 G, 35 A, +12 in 82 games
As I said last week, I don't see the Olympics effecting his focus, nor do I see him putting too much pressure on himself, as he did to start last year. It's crazy to realize that his 34 goals all came after he failed to score in the first 11 games. This year I can see him breaking both the 40 G and 40 A mark while continuing to develop into an intangible force - a physical presence who does the dirty work and effects the game on both ends. Even if his stats don't go up - what matters is that he continues to develop into that all-around player who matters every second he's on the ice.
As Captain and all-around good guy, expect Toews to get his contract locked up pretty quickly. Keith and Kane might take a little longer, but in the end I'm sure the Hawks will lock up all three. These players mean too much not to, and I bet they all are willing to sign to continue to be part of the special thing that's going on here.
Kane #88
Pos: W
Age 20
08-09: 25 G, 45 A, -5 in 80 games
Kane's numbers didn't change a whole lot from his Rookie of the Year campaign, which is a bit frustrating and a bit encouraging. You'd expect either a natural step forward or even a sophomore slump as he adjusts, but Kane really didn't have either. Despite the calls of immaturity and a lack of commitment, Kane deserves a boatload of credit that he's never gotten. That's for coming back so quickly from that high ankle sprain (something that doesn't heal for months) and fighting through it the entire season and playoffs.
Hopefully the off-season was enough to finally heal the ankle and we'll see the Kane who looked like he was taking the next step in the first half of last year. I have faith that's the case, especially after the way he's played in the first two games. Coming back so quickly from that injury showed me Kane really cares about the game of hockey and the Hawks. While his goofy attitude off ice might hide that, I think Kane is gonna be a winner for years to come. He's talented and he showed in the playoffs that he can step up when it really matters. Yes, he'll still take shifts off and get lost in a lot of games, and yes he still has a ton of growing up to do, but Kane will get there.
With the team being so good and so many players being counted on, I see Kane settling into what he does best and taking that expected step forward. 30 goals, 60 assists, and finally a plus rating for the season (something he's never had). And I think he'll do great in the Olympics, where the bigger ice and less physical play will allow him to really shine for Team USA.
Sharp #10
Pos: W
Age 27
08-09: 26 G, 18 A, +6 in 61 games
Sharp's name has come up a lot as a guy who's on the block, someone who probably will be a cap casualty once the Big Three (Toews, Kane, and Keith) sign their longterm deals. Given that all three of those guys are too young to work any longterm deal shenanigans, it is a legit concern. However, I think the Hawks would be unwise to part with Sharp, who's the closest thing they have to a steadying veteran force on and off the ice.
The guy is only 27 and just like the rest of the Hawks, really only has been a significant factor on a team while skating in the Indian Head sweater. But Sharp is clearly someone the kids respect both for his leadership and his play.
He's also an impressive combination of sniper and defensive factor. He followed up his 36 goal campaign two years ago with 26 in only 61 games last year. And that includes a number of games when he returned but was clearly hobbled. His play in the post-season last year really impressed me - not only that Sharp was a contributor, but that he fought through the injuries and admirably filled whatever role JQ asked him to.
Sharp played anywhere from the 1st line to the 4th. He centered and he took a wing. He focused on defense, offense, working in the corners, killing penalties, skating on power plays. I know it won't be easy to keep everybody, but Sharp is the type of player I don't want to lose. He's the rare combination of star-type talent and workmanlike attitude. You need that if you want to take the big prize, and thus I want to see this guy kept around.
As for this season, I see not much changing from the previous years. He'll get his 30 goals, he'll be over 20 assists, and he'll do it all with a really solid plus-minus. Though JQ moves his lineup around a lot, I can see Sharp being pushed back to the third line so that Hossa can skate with Toews and Kane upon his return. But that's no knock on Sharp - he'll provide the two-way skill and scoring threat that a top third line will need, making the Hawks dangerous no matter whose shift it is.
Hossa #81
Pos: W
Age: 30
08-09: 40 G, 31 A, +27 in 74 games with Detroit
While we won't be seeing Hossa for a few months, once he does get onto the ice we're gonna be impressed. Campbell got the big money last year because he was a good player who filled a hard-to-find role. Hossa isn't like that - he got the big money because he's one of the best players in the NHL. Period.
He's good for 35-45 goals and 35-50 assists in any given year. In seven year stretch starting in 99-00, he never failed to play 78 games (and played over 72 each of the past two years). He's only been a minus once in his whole career. Four times he's made it to the second round or further in the playoffs and during those runs has 27 G and 40 A in 72 games. And at 6-1, 210 and about 50 PIM a year, he's a physical presence.
While the loss of Havlat without the immediate replacement of Hossa will challenge the Hawks, I think they're up to it. As I mentioned, I think it will allow some of the other guys to step up and be more of a factor. But it also will allow Hossa to rest and keep his legs, something a guy who's made back-to-back trips to the Cup Finals needs. I expect he'll be full speed sometime in the second half, giving him the legs he needs down the stretch and through the playoffs.
Bolland #36
Pos: C
Age: 23
08-09: 19 G, 28 A, +19 in 81 games
I gotta admit that I saw Bolland as a bit of a waste two years ago. He was centering the 2nd or 3rd line, but didn't seem to do much. There wasn't much talk about him and I didn't see where he fit. I also didn't realize how young he was, but still, there just wasn't much for excitement to him.
I wasn't wrong that Bolland isn't exciting, but I was dead wrong that he didn't fit. Much like Sharp, he's exactly the kind of player you need to win. Bolland works hard on both ends of the ice, killing penalties and creating offense with equal skill. He'll never be a star, but he should be a solid #2 or #3 center his whole career, playing on winners all along.
At 23, Bolland still has some work to do. His face-off percentage needs to be up near 52%, especially if he's gonna be a key penalty killer. And with the type of talent he'll be skating with, his assists need to get up near the 40 mark. But if he can be a 20 goal, 30-40 assist guy who wins more face-offs than he loses while effecting the game on both ends, he'll be damn valuable.
I was pumped to see the Hawks commit to this kid longterm and look forward to seeing him anchoring our second and third lines for a while. I predict him reaching that 20-goal, 30 assist range, and if JQ keeps him skating with scorers and playmakers all year, he could top 40 assists.
Versteeg #32
Pos: W
Age 23
08-09: 22 G, 31 A, +15 in 78 games
I freakin love this guy. He was so unheralded coming into the year, but that allowed him to go all Mark DeRosa or Aaron Rowand on us and become loved because of it. "The Steeg" deserves it too, as his production and all-around play were damn impressive for anybody, let alone an unknown rookie.
Versteeg has the rare gift of playmaking, probably the most valuable skill in all of hockey. While goals get all the hype, it's the ability to create the plays that lead to the goals that truly is valuable. And Versteeg can do that in spades. Nearly every game he does something that impresses me.
But what really excites me about this guy is that JQ hasn't used him correctly yet. Versteeg never got to mesh with a line because he was up and down the lineup more than any other skater. Often times that meant he was mismatched with players incapable of taking advantage of the opportunities he'd create.
This year, I'm hoping JQ realizes what he has and keeps Versteeg skating with some real offensive skill players. Guys who can score off of his plays and can create a bit themselves to set him up. It's true that Versteeg can grind and play good defense, but that doesn't mean he should be handicapped with unskilled linemates (I'm lookin at you Buff and Brouwer).
The Steeg can easily score 30 goals and help on 40 if JQ utilizes him correctly. Given that he's got his big contract and is a part of this team for a while (hopefully), it's time to get everything you can out of him.
Ladd #15
Pos: W
Age: 23
08-09: 15 G, 34 A, +26 in 82 games
A former first round pick, Ladd really broke out last season, but in a way no one expected. A pretty big guy, Ladd seemed like he'd be a garbage cleaner in front of the net who if he did make it big, would be scoring a bunch of ugly goals. But Ladd's 15 G total, while solid, was his least impressive accomplishment last year.
Instead, Ladd emerged as a guy who could help make plays (only Havlat and Kane had more helpers from a forward spot) and play solid defense. I think his defensive skill was mildly over-rated, given that JQ never skated him on the penalty kill. But in a five-on-five situation, he was definitely a plus defender and helped make last year's checking line one of the best in the NHL.
While Versteeg is no Havlat (yet), I think that JQ can get about the same defensive-lock down ability and scoring pop out of a Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg line, given the advancement of all three young players and the increased effort Versteeg provides over Marty. And given that they're all 23, all signed for a few years, and provide the perfect compliment to one another, I think this is a line that should skate together for years.
In such a line, it's possible Ladd could step up to the 20-goal plateau or beyond as he continues to mature. Although I really see him more likely to settle in at 15, while anything near his 30+ assist total of last year would be great.
Madden #11
Pos: C
Age: 36
08-09: 7 G, 16 A, -7 in 76 games with New Jersey
Brought in to replace the defense-only role of Pahlsson, Madden might be an even better fit. Pahlsson was a bit younger and more skilled in the face-off circle, but Madden is more of a leader and has a better scoring touch. On top of that, Madden is pretty motivated coming of his worst statistical year and knowing this could be his last chance to again hoist the Cup (something he's done with the Devils twice).
Madden should win more face-offs than he loses, should skate against the other team's top line every night, and should be able to score around 15 goals and get 20 helpers. That's pretty much what he's done his whole career. And when Hossa returns, he may even drop down to join the energetic youngsters in one of the top scoring and energy fourth lines in the league.
The only question is does he still have anything left in the tank? After scoring 20 goals and dropping 23 assists two years ago (the best season of his career), last year Madden fell off a bit. Will the new environment re-energize him? Even if not, Madden will still be a plus-center to have on that fourth line and a great guy come playoff time.
Kopecky #82
Pos: C/W
Age: 27
08-09: 6 G, 13 A, -7 in 79 games with Detroit
A quiet workman contributor coming off only his second full season, Kopecky has impressed his fellow Hawks by showing more skill than expected. A decently big guy at 6-3, 205 who plays with toughness, Kopecky has never filled up the scoresheet. But it's possible he's got more to offer than what has been required of him so far in Detroit.
Playing on the third line with some other offensively gifted types, Kopecky might just become a 15-goal, 25 assist guy. But even if he remains an offensive liability, the Czech will be valuable for the grit and intangibles he brings with him from Detroit. His ability to play center or on a wing gives JQ some line flexibility, especially once Hossa comes back. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kopecky centering a tough and highly capable checking line with Buff and Sharp in the second half.
Byfuglien #33
Pos: W
Age: 24
08-09: 15 G, 16 A, +7 in 77 games
As I mentioned yesterday, Buff has really impressed in training camp and might just have found his focus in time to earn a spot on Team USA. Whatever is driving Buff, let's hope it's a permanent thing. His skills are impossible to ignore, even if they aren't the prettiest thing on the ice. He's clearly a physical presence, he's got a decent scoring touch, and at only 24 and in just his third year as a winger, Buff may have a boatload of upside left.
Paired with a playmaker or two and dialed in every night, Buff can easily top 20 goals and maybe even push 30. He'll never be much more than a 20 or so assist guy, but if he can work hard down low and make other teams respect his presence on every shift, Buff could be an invaluable tool.
If that happens, the Hawks have a big decision to make, as Buff is part of that group of second tier guys, some of whom won't be able to stick around when the Big 3 get their money. Personally I'll never be sold on Buff and will always be waiting for his motivation to lag. My hope is that he has a great year, helps carry the Hawks to the Cup, and then is let go before he decides he's not that into working hard after all.
Fraser #46
Pos: C
Age: 24
08-09: 6 G, 21 A, +3 in 81 games
The forgotten man, it's possible Fraser might have found his role in the playoffs last season - the regular healthy scratch. He's still young and showed some great energy and decent skill, but to be a viable 4th or even 3rd liner, he's got to up his game physically and in the face-off circle. He was very solid defensively, skating on the penalty kill and doing well on the 4th line.
But to get regular shifts, he's got to be a force defensively, interrupting the other team's flow every second on the ice. And Fraser absolutely must be a plus face-off man. In fact, to really guarantee himself a spot, he's got to get over 52% - to the level where he's specifically getting sent out to win key face-offs in the defensive end.
With Burish and Hossa out, Fraser should get some ice time. He's got to take advantage and show himself a good role player if he wants to be a factor for the Hawks down the road.
Eager #55
Pos: W
Age: 25
08-09: 11 G, 4 A, +1 in 75 games
Eager isn't exactly the smartest guy on the ice and still lets his high-energy style get the best of him sometimes, but I think this kid has a hell of a lot to offer the Hawks. He's showed a decent scoring touch (11 G out of a 4th liner is impressive) and certainly brings the toughness, energy, and grit you want out of your 4th line.
But I also have been impressed with his speed and offensive skills, as at least once a game he makes a play that you wouldn't expect out of a 4th line bruiser. The speed and skill that Burish and Eager brought to the 4th line last season, while not sacrificing any toughness, is what made it the best such line in the NHL.
I'm hoping that if JQ does bump one of these possible 4th liners up to the scoring lines, its Eager. I really think that with a bit of confidence and experience, he could be a great addition to a top line. He's got the skills and speed to not hold back the playmakers, and his energy and size make him a real asset.
But even if he just remains down on the 4th line, Eager will be a great role player for this team, scoring about 10 goals, getting in a boatload of fights protecting his skilled teammates, and sparking the team when needed.
Brouwer #22
Pos: W
Age 24
08-09: 10 G, 16 A, +7 in 69 games
I've made no mistake about my lack of appreciation of Brouwer. I just have yet to see what he brings to the table. From what I've seen, he's not even close to skilled enough to be a scorer or playmaker, but he also doesn't have enough of a motor or understanding of the game to be an intangibles type. He's not a great defender, he's not a physical bruiser, he's not a gritty cornerman.
I guess he does a little bit of all of that stuff OK and was still a rookie last year, but I will never understand JQ's love affair with this guy. He's totally miscast as a compliment to the top line guys, yet JQ continues to pretend Brouwer can fill that role. The fact that while skating with the studs he did all of last year he could only net 10 and assist on 16 is atrocious.
I'd pretty much rather see any skater on the Hawks, except maybe Fraser, get scoring line time than this guy. Put Brouwer on the 4th line and let him prove he can provide those intangibles that he supposedly brings to the scoring lines. Intangibles aren't automatic - you've got to learn how to contribute in that fashion. On the 4th line, Brouwer will have the opportunity to do so, and might just develop into the player JQ pretends he is. But for now, be happy with him as a solid 4th liner capable of double-digit goals and solid enough all-around play.
Smolenak #52
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 0 G, 1 A, +1 in 6 games with Tampa Bay
A last-second addition to the opening day roster, Smolenak is a bit of a mystery to me. He's only 22 so he's still got plenty of time to prove himself and the Hawks clearly think he's got the chance, as they grabbed him off waivers and gave him a shot with the big league team.
It's possible, in fact probably likely, that Smolenak will only stick for as long as the Hawks need to keep Skille buried in the AHL to avoid a cap penalty. Supposedly that was the biggest factor in deciding to farm out their former first round pick rather than give him his shot with the big league team.
But I'm curious to see what Smolenak can do. He started out right by netting a pair of goals in his first exhibition game, so maybe he'll pull the often-seen ride the wave of a new setting to an uncharacteristic scoring binge thing. If he provides a bit of a spark on a third or fourth line to start the year and then fades into Bolivia, then so be it. And if he just keeps a seat warm for Skille before turning into another possible prospect in Rockford, that's fine too.
Skille #20
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 0 A, -3 in 8 games
First off, it's pronounced "Skill-ee" at least according to Pat Foley. A first round draft pick, Skille looked decent enough in 16 games two years ago but took a step back last year when injuries and iffy play moved Troy Brouwer in front of him on the organizational depth chart. As I've made clear here many a time, I think Brouwer sucks, so I'm hoping Skille can pass him back up.
If I'm JQ, I'm taking my lips of Brouwer's undeserving butt and sticking him squarely on a 4th line, where he might just develop into a productive role player. And I'm allowing Skille, when he eventually comes up - seems like that's the Hawks' plan - to skate on one of the top three lines. Skille is not a grinder - he's got great wheels and a bit of a scoring touch, having scored 16 and 20 goals in about 60 games in the AHL each of the past two seasons.
Put this kid in a position to succeed and see if you've got a real player here. The Hawks have no shortage of grinders and Brouwer has been given his chance - and failed miserably - to show he can profit from playing on a scoring line. So let's see what Skille can do with a playmaker like Versteeg, Kane, Toews, or Bolland on his line. Don't bring the kid up and bury him with Frasier on the 4th line, where offense doesn't exist. What will we learn about him from that? With Hossa out you've got a spot on the Top 3 lines, so let Skille have it (once the cap issues sort themselves out) and start to discover what we really have here.
Burish #37
Pos: C/W
Age: 26
08-09: 6 G, 3 A, +3 in 66 games
Unfortunately, we won't see much of Burish this regular season. His loss will definitely be felt on the 4th line, where he brought energy, toughness, and a spark that is always needed. He was the team's top pest, getting to the mentally soft on a nightly basis.
The good news is that we know what Burish is and his game won't take long to return. Hopefully he'll get better in time to get his legs under him and be fully ready to go come the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Like Eager, his speed and skill are rare finds in such tough and energetic 4th liners. I'm really excited to see a 4th line of the veteran Madden winged by Eager and Burish providing the Hawks with another legit group to roll over every night.
Part III - Defensemen
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Here last week I touched on what I think will be effecting the team's play throughout the regular season. I should also add I think the trip to Europe will be a real plus, bringing an already tight young squad closer together. For a proven veteran team, such a long trip could be exhausting and distracting, but for a team still trying to establish itself, I think this sleep-away camp experience will be tremendous.
Now, to the forwards. Tomorrow - the defenders and goalies. The skaters are organized more or less in the lines/pairings I'd run out there:
Toews #19
Pos: C
Age: 21
08-09: 34 G, 35 A, +12 in 82 games
As I said last week, I don't see the Olympics effecting his focus, nor do I see him putting too much pressure on himself, as he did to start last year. It's crazy to realize that his 34 goals all came after he failed to score in the first 11 games. This year I can see him breaking both the 40 G and 40 A mark while continuing to develop into an intangible force - a physical presence who does the dirty work and effects the game on both ends. Even if his stats don't go up - what matters is that he continues to develop into that all-around player who matters every second he's on the ice.
As Captain and all-around good guy, expect Toews to get his contract locked up pretty quickly. Keith and Kane might take a little longer, but in the end I'm sure the Hawks will lock up all three. These players mean too much not to, and I bet they all are willing to sign to continue to be part of the special thing that's going on here.
Kane #88
Pos: W
Age 20
08-09: 25 G, 45 A, -5 in 80 games
Kane's numbers didn't change a whole lot from his Rookie of the Year campaign, which is a bit frustrating and a bit encouraging. You'd expect either a natural step forward or even a sophomore slump as he adjusts, but Kane really didn't have either. Despite the calls of immaturity and a lack of commitment, Kane deserves a boatload of credit that he's never gotten. That's for coming back so quickly from that high ankle sprain (something that doesn't heal for months) and fighting through it the entire season and playoffs.
Hopefully the off-season was enough to finally heal the ankle and we'll see the Kane who looked like he was taking the next step in the first half of last year. I have faith that's the case, especially after the way he's played in the first two games. Coming back so quickly from that injury showed me Kane really cares about the game of hockey and the Hawks. While his goofy attitude off ice might hide that, I think Kane is gonna be a winner for years to come. He's talented and he showed in the playoffs that he can step up when it really matters. Yes, he'll still take shifts off and get lost in a lot of games, and yes he still has a ton of growing up to do, but Kane will get there.
With the team being so good and so many players being counted on, I see Kane settling into what he does best and taking that expected step forward. 30 goals, 60 assists, and finally a plus rating for the season (something he's never had). And I think he'll do great in the Olympics, where the bigger ice and less physical play will allow him to really shine for Team USA.
Sharp #10
Pos: W
Age 27
08-09: 26 G, 18 A, +6 in 61 games
Sharp's name has come up a lot as a guy who's on the block, someone who probably will be a cap casualty once the Big Three (Toews, Kane, and Keith) sign their longterm deals. Given that all three of those guys are too young to work any longterm deal shenanigans, it is a legit concern. However, I think the Hawks would be unwise to part with Sharp, who's the closest thing they have to a steadying veteran force on and off the ice.
The guy is only 27 and just like the rest of the Hawks, really only has been a significant factor on a team while skating in the Indian Head sweater. But Sharp is clearly someone the kids respect both for his leadership and his play.
He's also an impressive combination of sniper and defensive factor. He followed up his 36 goal campaign two years ago with 26 in only 61 games last year. And that includes a number of games when he returned but was clearly hobbled. His play in the post-season last year really impressed me - not only that Sharp was a contributor, but that he fought through the injuries and admirably filled whatever role JQ asked him to.
Sharp played anywhere from the 1st line to the 4th. He centered and he took a wing. He focused on defense, offense, working in the corners, killing penalties, skating on power plays. I know it won't be easy to keep everybody, but Sharp is the type of player I don't want to lose. He's the rare combination of star-type talent and workmanlike attitude. You need that if you want to take the big prize, and thus I want to see this guy kept around.
As for this season, I see not much changing from the previous years. He'll get his 30 goals, he'll be over 20 assists, and he'll do it all with a really solid plus-minus. Though JQ moves his lineup around a lot, I can see Sharp being pushed back to the third line so that Hossa can skate with Toews and Kane upon his return. But that's no knock on Sharp - he'll provide the two-way skill and scoring threat that a top third line will need, making the Hawks dangerous no matter whose shift it is.
Hossa #81
Pos: W
Age: 30
08-09: 40 G, 31 A, +27 in 74 games with Detroit
While we won't be seeing Hossa for a few months, once he does get onto the ice we're gonna be impressed. Campbell got the big money last year because he was a good player who filled a hard-to-find role. Hossa isn't like that - he got the big money because he's one of the best players in the NHL. Period.
He's good for 35-45 goals and 35-50 assists in any given year. In seven year stretch starting in 99-00, he never failed to play 78 games (and played over 72 each of the past two years). He's only been a minus once in his whole career. Four times he's made it to the second round or further in the playoffs and during those runs has 27 G and 40 A in 72 games. And at 6-1, 210 and about 50 PIM a year, he's a physical presence.
While the loss of Havlat without the immediate replacement of Hossa will challenge the Hawks, I think they're up to it. As I mentioned, I think it will allow some of the other guys to step up and be more of a factor. But it also will allow Hossa to rest and keep his legs, something a guy who's made back-to-back trips to the Cup Finals needs. I expect he'll be full speed sometime in the second half, giving him the legs he needs down the stretch and through the playoffs.
Bolland #36
Pos: C
Age: 23
08-09: 19 G, 28 A, +19 in 81 games
I gotta admit that I saw Bolland as a bit of a waste two years ago. He was centering the 2nd or 3rd line, but didn't seem to do much. There wasn't much talk about him and I didn't see where he fit. I also didn't realize how young he was, but still, there just wasn't much for excitement to him.
I wasn't wrong that Bolland isn't exciting, but I was dead wrong that he didn't fit. Much like Sharp, he's exactly the kind of player you need to win. Bolland works hard on both ends of the ice, killing penalties and creating offense with equal skill. He'll never be a star, but he should be a solid #2 or #3 center his whole career, playing on winners all along.
At 23, Bolland still has some work to do. His face-off percentage needs to be up near 52%, especially if he's gonna be a key penalty killer. And with the type of talent he'll be skating with, his assists need to get up near the 40 mark. But if he can be a 20 goal, 30-40 assist guy who wins more face-offs than he loses while effecting the game on both ends, he'll be damn valuable.
I was pumped to see the Hawks commit to this kid longterm and look forward to seeing him anchoring our second and third lines for a while. I predict him reaching that 20-goal, 30 assist range, and if JQ keeps him skating with scorers and playmakers all year, he could top 40 assists.
Versteeg #32
Pos: W
Age 23
08-09: 22 G, 31 A, +15 in 78 games
I freakin love this guy. He was so unheralded coming into the year, but that allowed him to go all Mark DeRosa or Aaron Rowand on us and become loved because of it. "The Steeg" deserves it too, as his production and all-around play were damn impressive for anybody, let alone an unknown rookie.
Versteeg has the rare gift of playmaking, probably the most valuable skill in all of hockey. While goals get all the hype, it's the ability to create the plays that lead to the goals that truly is valuable. And Versteeg can do that in spades. Nearly every game he does something that impresses me.
But what really excites me about this guy is that JQ hasn't used him correctly yet. Versteeg never got to mesh with a line because he was up and down the lineup more than any other skater. Often times that meant he was mismatched with players incapable of taking advantage of the opportunities he'd create.
This year, I'm hoping JQ realizes what he has and keeps Versteeg skating with some real offensive skill players. Guys who can score off of his plays and can create a bit themselves to set him up. It's true that Versteeg can grind and play good defense, but that doesn't mean he should be handicapped with unskilled linemates (I'm lookin at you Buff and Brouwer).
The Steeg can easily score 30 goals and help on 40 if JQ utilizes him correctly. Given that he's got his big contract and is a part of this team for a while (hopefully), it's time to get everything you can out of him.
Ladd #15
Pos: W
Age: 23
08-09: 15 G, 34 A, +26 in 82 games
A former first round pick, Ladd really broke out last season, but in a way no one expected. A pretty big guy, Ladd seemed like he'd be a garbage cleaner in front of the net who if he did make it big, would be scoring a bunch of ugly goals. But Ladd's 15 G total, while solid, was his least impressive accomplishment last year.
Instead, Ladd emerged as a guy who could help make plays (only Havlat and Kane had more helpers from a forward spot) and play solid defense. I think his defensive skill was mildly over-rated, given that JQ never skated him on the penalty kill. But in a five-on-five situation, he was definitely a plus defender and helped make last year's checking line one of the best in the NHL.
While Versteeg is no Havlat (yet), I think that JQ can get about the same defensive-lock down ability and scoring pop out of a Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg line, given the advancement of all three young players and the increased effort Versteeg provides over Marty. And given that they're all 23, all signed for a few years, and provide the perfect compliment to one another, I think this is a line that should skate together for years.
In such a line, it's possible Ladd could step up to the 20-goal plateau or beyond as he continues to mature. Although I really see him more likely to settle in at 15, while anything near his 30+ assist total of last year would be great.
Madden #11
Pos: C
Age: 36
08-09: 7 G, 16 A, -7 in 76 games with New Jersey
Brought in to replace the defense-only role of Pahlsson, Madden might be an even better fit. Pahlsson was a bit younger and more skilled in the face-off circle, but Madden is more of a leader and has a better scoring touch. On top of that, Madden is pretty motivated coming of his worst statistical year and knowing this could be his last chance to again hoist the Cup (something he's done with the Devils twice).
Madden should win more face-offs than he loses, should skate against the other team's top line every night, and should be able to score around 15 goals and get 20 helpers. That's pretty much what he's done his whole career. And when Hossa returns, he may even drop down to join the energetic youngsters in one of the top scoring and energy fourth lines in the league.
The only question is does he still have anything left in the tank? After scoring 20 goals and dropping 23 assists two years ago (the best season of his career), last year Madden fell off a bit. Will the new environment re-energize him? Even if not, Madden will still be a plus-center to have on that fourth line and a great guy come playoff time.
Kopecky #82
Pos: C/W
Age: 27
08-09: 6 G, 13 A, -7 in 79 games with Detroit
A quiet workman contributor coming off only his second full season, Kopecky has impressed his fellow Hawks by showing more skill than expected. A decently big guy at 6-3, 205 who plays with toughness, Kopecky has never filled up the scoresheet. But it's possible he's got more to offer than what has been required of him so far in Detroit.
Playing on the third line with some other offensively gifted types, Kopecky might just become a 15-goal, 25 assist guy. But even if he remains an offensive liability, the Czech will be valuable for the grit and intangibles he brings with him from Detroit. His ability to play center or on a wing gives JQ some line flexibility, especially once Hossa comes back. It wouldn't surprise me to see Kopecky centering a tough and highly capable checking line with Buff and Sharp in the second half.
Byfuglien #33
Pos: W
Age: 24
08-09: 15 G, 16 A, +7 in 77 games
As I mentioned yesterday, Buff has really impressed in training camp and might just have found his focus in time to earn a spot on Team USA. Whatever is driving Buff, let's hope it's a permanent thing. His skills are impossible to ignore, even if they aren't the prettiest thing on the ice. He's clearly a physical presence, he's got a decent scoring touch, and at only 24 and in just his third year as a winger, Buff may have a boatload of upside left.
Paired with a playmaker or two and dialed in every night, Buff can easily top 20 goals and maybe even push 30. He'll never be much more than a 20 or so assist guy, but if he can work hard down low and make other teams respect his presence on every shift, Buff could be an invaluable tool.
If that happens, the Hawks have a big decision to make, as Buff is part of that group of second tier guys, some of whom won't be able to stick around when the Big 3 get their money. Personally I'll never be sold on Buff and will always be waiting for his motivation to lag. My hope is that he has a great year, helps carry the Hawks to the Cup, and then is let go before he decides he's not that into working hard after all.
Fraser #46
Pos: C
Age: 24
08-09: 6 G, 21 A, +3 in 81 games
The forgotten man, it's possible Fraser might have found his role in the playoffs last season - the regular healthy scratch. He's still young and showed some great energy and decent skill, but to be a viable 4th or even 3rd liner, he's got to up his game physically and in the face-off circle. He was very solid defensively, skating on the penalty kill and doing well on the 4th line.
But to get regular shifts, he's got to be a force defensively, interrupting the other team's flow every second on the ice. And Fraser absolutely must be a plus face-off man. In fact, to really guarantee himself a spot, he's got to get over 52% - to the level where he's specifically getting sent out to win key face-offs in the defensive end.
With Burish and Hossa out, Fraser should get some ice time. He's got to take advantage and show himself a good role player if he wants to be a factor for the Hawks down the road.
Eager #55
Pos: W
Age: 25
08-09: 11 G, 4 A, +1 in 75 games
Eager isn't exactly the smartest guy on the ice and still lets his high-energy style get the best of him sometimes, but I think this kid has a hell of a lot to offer the Hawks. He's showed a decent scoring touch (11 G out of a 4th liner is impressive) and certainly brings the toughness, energy, and grit you want out of your 4th line.
But I also have been impressed with his speed and offensive skills, as at least once a game he makes a play that you wouldn't expect out of a 4th line bruiser. The speed and skill that Burish and Eager brought to the 4th line last season, while not sacrificing any toughness, is what made it the best such line in the NHL.
I'm hoping that if JQ does bump one of these possible 4th liners up to the scoring lines, its Eager. I really think that with a bit of confidence and experience, he could be a great addition to a top line. He's got the skills and speed to not hold back the playmakers, and his energy and size make him a real asset.
But even if he just remains down on the 4th line, Eager will be a great role player for this team, scoring about 10 goals, getting in a boatload of fights protecting his skilled teammates, and sparking the team when needed.
Brouwer #22
Pos: W
Age 24
08-09: 10 G, 16 A, +7 in 69 games
I've made no mistake about my lack of appreciation of Brouwer. I just have yet to see what he brings to the table. From what I've seen, he's not even close to skilled enough to be a scorer or playmaker, but he also doesn't have enough of a motor or understanding of the game to be an intangibles type. He's not a great defender, he's not a physical bruiser, he's not a gritty cornerman.
I guess he does a little bit of all of that stuff OK and was still a rookie last year, but I will never understand JQ's love affair with this guy. He's totally miscast as a compliment to the top line guys, yet JQ continues to pretend Brouwer can fill that role. The fact that while skating with the studs he did all of last year he could only net 10 and assist on 16 is atrocious.
I'd pretty much rather see any skater on the Hawks, except maybe Fraser, get scoring line time than this guy. Put Brouwer on the 4th line and let him prove he can provide those intangibles that he supposedly brings to the scoring lines. Intangibles aren't automatic - you've got to learn how to contribute in that fashion. On the 4th line, Brouwer will have the opportunity to do so, and might just develop into the player JQ pretends he is. But for now, be happy with him as a solid 4th liner capable of double-digit goals and solid enough all-around play.
Smolenak #52
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 0 G, 1 A, +1 in 6 games with Tampa Bay
A last-second addition to the opening day roster, Smolenak is a bit of a mystery to me. He's only 22 so he's still got plenty of time to prove himself and the Hawks clearly think he's got the chance, as they grabbed him off waivers and gave him a shot with the big league team.
It's possible, in fact probably likely, that Smolenak will only stick for as long as the Hawks need to keep Skille buried in the AHL to avoid a cap penalty. Supposedly that was the biggest factor in deciding to farm out their former first round pick rather than give him his shot with the big league team.
But I'm curious to see what Smolenak can do. He started out right by netting a pair of goals in his first exhibition game, so maybe he'll pull the often-seen ride the wave of a new setting to an uncharacteristic scoring binge thing. If he provides a bit of a spark on a third or fourth line to start the year and then fades into Bolivia, then so be it. And if he just keeps a seat warm for Skille before turning into another possible prospect in Rockford, that's fine too.
Skille #20
Pos: W
Age: 22
08-09: 1 G, 0 A, -3 in 8 games
First off, it's pronounced "Skill-ee" at least according to Pat Foley. A first round draft pick, Skille looked decent enough in 16 games two years ago but took a step back last year when injuries and iffy play moved Troy Brouwer in front of him on the organizational depth chart. As I've made clear here many a time, I think Brouwer sucks, so I'm hoping Skille can pass him back up.
If I'm JQ, I'm taking my lips of Brouwer's undeserving butt and sticking him squarely on a 4th line, where he might just develop into a productive role player. And I'm allowing Skille, when he eventually comes up - seems like that's the Hawks' plan - to skate on one of the top three lines. Skille is not a grinder - he's got great wheels and a bit of a scoring touch, having scored 16 and 20 goals in about 60 games in the AHL each of the past two seasons.
Put this kid in a position to succeed and see if you've got a real player here. The Hawks have no shortage of grinders and Brouwer has been given his chance - and failed miserably - to show he can profit from playing on a scoring line. So let's see what Skille can do with a playmaker like Versteeg, Kane, Toews, or Bolland on his line. Don't bring the kid up and bury him with Frasier on the 4th line, where offense doesn't exist. What will we learn about him from that? With Hossa out you've got a spot on the Top 3 lines, so let Skille have it (once the cap issues sort themselves out) and start to discover what we really have here.
Burish #37
Pos: C/W
Age: 26
08-09: 6 G, 3 A, +3 in 66 games
Unfortunately, we won't see much of Burish this regular season. His loss will definitely be felt on the 4th line, where he brought energy, toughness, and a spark that is always needed. He was the team's top pest, getting to the mentally soft on a nightly basis.
The good news is that we know what Burish is and his game won't take long to return. Hopefully he'll get better in time to get his legs under him and be fully ready to go come the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Like Eager, his speed and skill are rare finds in such tough and energetic 4th liners. I'm really excited to see a 4th line of the veteran Madden winged by Eager and Burish providing the Hawks with another legit group to roll over every night.
Part III - Defensemen
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Predicting 2009-2010 (Part I)
Part I - Overview
I'm gonna start by saying that I think it's ludicrous to predict the playoffs before the season, in any sport. The playoffs are a second season themselves and based FAR more on what happens during the season than what you expected coming into it. Predicting the 2010 NHL playoffs right now makes about as much sense to me as predicting the 2010-2011 season.
So all you're gonna find from me here is a prediction of what I expect out of the Hawks between Friday's puck drop in Finland (11 AM start) and their final game in April, on NBC against the hated Wings.
Speaking of NBC, while the national networks had no foresight last year (was it not clear that the young Hawks team would be a national sell?), this season the Hawks will be on nationally quite a bit. I count 9 Versus games (including the Friday opener) and an impressive four NBC games. The Hawks are finally getting the national exposure that such a gifted young squad deserves.
Now to what I expect to see out of the Hawks during the next six months. First, I think they'll be pretty hungry out of the gate. Last year they were hungry, but also uncertain. They hadn't even made it to the playoffs yet and only a couple of guys had even played a meaningful role on any playoff teams at any time in their career.
Not so this year, as the team is coming off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals that included series victories over legit teams in Calgary and Vancouver (I saw one national writer predict the Canucks would win the West this year). All their additions - Hossa, Kopecky, Madden - are ring wearing vets who've been through the fire. On top of that, an off-season of overblown turmoil should have the team committed to re-focusing the media attention back onto the ice.
But don't discount that as a team of young, unproven, but highly talented individuals, the Hawks have a number of players looking to establish their place on their national teams. All pre-season everyone has been talking about how great Buff has looked. Buff has always shown flashes of great things, but as I've consistently made clear here, the guy loses interest all the time. When that happens, he becomes worthless on the ice.
So the question is always which Buff are we going to get? After last regular season, when we saw him take a step back, for a stretch of games in the playoffs Buff was outstanding. But what was lost is that before the playoffs ended, he had gone back to his disappearing act. Now what?
I see this pre-season hunger carrying over into the regular season as Buff tries to earn himself a place on Team USA for the Vancouver Olympics in February. Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Toews, Kane - all of these guys also have a shot at making their squads and will want to prove they deserve it.
What kind of effect will this have on the team? For Buff I think it will make him the player we always hoped he'd be, at least until the Olympics. The hope is that he does take off, does play well in the Olympics, and having tasted success, is finally focused and motivated to continue it. What about the rest of the guys - will they focus too much on individual accomplishments? Will on-ice selfishness turn to off-ice issues?
I think the defenders will actually be helped by this pursuit. Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell know that their place on Team Canada will be based on their defensive work. In Campbell's case, that's because his offensive contribution is already proven, so if he can be a solid two-way guy, he'll have a shot.
There are talks of Keith and Seabrook being the #1 unit for Team Canada - a pretty lofty perch, but given the way they play together, they just might be the best combo in the world. That sounds strange, but if you're the best pairing from the most talented country, you're the best there is. To prove this is the case, Keith and Seabrook won't need to inflate personal numbers but instead do what they always do - shut down the other team's top line while sparking their forwards.
I think the more realistic concern is with Toews and Kane, and probably moreso with Kane. Toews could, as he did to start last year, put too much pressure on himself and struggle out of the gate. But I think he's too committed to the Hawks to let the Olympics take away from his game, especially having seen what not having his head in the right place will do. Instead I've got faith Toews will come out of the gate playing as well as he did to end last year.
Kane, on the other hand, could be an issue. He is similar to Buff in that his focus and commitment seems to lag here and there. He's so talented he's able to make a play or two every game anyway, but there's a real difference with Kane when he's working hard every shift and when he's just floating around the ice. All the rumors about him have suggested that while Toews is 21 going on 40, Kane is 20 going on 15.
So the draw of the Olympics could play on Kane's immaturity and have him thinking a bit too much about himself. Not only would that hurt his and the team's play, but it could upset the lockerroom. On the flipside, it's possible Kane uses the Olympics like Buff does, as a reason to be busting hump on every single shift of every game. His talent is immeasurable, so if Kane were to put it all out there every night, we could see him elevate from star to superstar.
In all, I see the Hawks dealing with the standard ups and downs that every team does, but I think there will be far more ups than downs and that the Hawks might just be able to overtake the Wings for the division. The Wings have lost some significant talent and have to be worn down by two straight brutal runs to the Cup Finals. Their goalie situation remains a concern (how much longer can Osgood remain top form?) and a lack of regular season focus has to be an issue for a team clearly playing for the big prize.
Not that the Wings will be a push over - they still are absurdly talented and play a great system of hockey. I think the Hawks might be able to catch or even surpass them in talent, but I don't see them ever equaling the Wings in the way they excel within their system. I see this year as a bit of a dog fight, with the Hawks at least having a shot to use Hossa's return to full speed and the continuing development of their immense young talent to catch the Wings down the stretch.
I don't see any early or mid-season injuries or struggles bothering the Hawks, as they'll have the talent to remain near the top of a Western Conference that isn't terribly deep. The only goal I have is for the Hawks to be fully healthy and clicking come the last month or so.
Winning the division and/or getting one of the top seeds in the West would be nice, but the Hawks are more than capable of post-season success as a bad seed. At the end of the day only a return trip to the Western Conference Finals will save this season from being a disappointment. Remember as Huet struggles or injuries mount or skaters disappoint that the Penguins looked to have taken a major step backward last year before they fired their coach, rediscovered themselves, and then blitzed straight to the Cup.
As long as the Hawks aren't showing any glaring issues or lose anyone to an injury that will cost them the playoffs, I've got faith that I'll be writing a very positive playoff prediction come April. I think both the Burish and Hossa injuries will allow the team to develop both scoring and grinder depth, so that upon their returns the Hawks will have a number of guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. And that's what's necessary to winning it all.
Final note - the biggest concern come the playoffs, if the team is healthy and playing like it should, will be Huet. Even if he has a Vezina regular season, he's fairly unproven come the post-season. But the same works in reverse - the regular season won't tell me a ton about Huet's ability to carry them. If he struggles now it won't bother me too much - he just needs to play like the guy who stood on his head in a must-win game against the Wings last May. Unfortunately, we won't know whether he can do that consistently in the Cup Playoffs until the Cup Playoffs.
So don't fret too much about Huet now - we'll have plenty of time for that this Spring. Instead, keep an eye on the health and effectiveness of the rest of the squad, none of whom are yet at a reliable place in their careers where you know what to expect.
Part II - Forwards, Part III - Defensemen
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I'm gonna start by saying that I think it's ludicrous to predict the playoffs before the season, in any sport. The playoffs are a second season themselves and based FAR more on what happens during the season than what you expected coming into it. Predicting the 2010 NHL playoffs right now makes about as much sense to me as predicting the 2010-2011 season.
So all you're gonna find from me here is a prediction of what I expect out of the Hawks between Friday's puck drop in Finland (11 AM start) and their final game in April, on NBC against the hated Wings.
Speaking of NBC, while the national networks had no foresight last year (was it not clear that the young Hawks team would be a national sell?), this season the Hawks will be on nationally quite a bit. I count 9 Versus games (including the Friday opener) and an impressive four NBC games. The Hawks are finally getting the national exposure that such a gifted young squad deserves.
Now to what I expect to see out of the Hawks during the next six months. First, I think they'll be pretty hungry out of the gate. Last year they were hungry, but also uncertain. They hadn't even made it to the playoffs yet and only a couple of guys had even played a meaningful role on any playoff teams at any time in their career.
Not so this year, as the team is coming off an impressive run to the Western Conference Finals that included series victories over legit teams in Calgary and Vancouver (I saw one national writer predict the Canucks would win the West this year). All their additions - Hossa, Kopecky, Madden - are ring wearing vets who've been through the fire. On top of that, an off-season of overblown turmoil should have the team committed to re-focusing the media attention back onto the ice.
But don't discount that as a team of young, unproven, but highly talented individuals, the Hawks have a number of players looking to establish their place on their national teams. All pre-season everyone has been talking about how great Buff has looked. Buff has always shown flashes of great things, but as I've consistently made clear here, the guy loses interest all the time. When that happens, he becomes worthless on the ice.
So the question is always which Buff are we going to get? After last regular season, when we saw him take a step back, for a stretch of games in the playoffs Buff was outstanding. But what was lost is that before the playoffs ended, he had gone back to his disappearing act. Now what?
I see this pre-season hunger carrying over into the regular season as Buff tries to earn himself a place on Team USA for the Vancouver Olympics in February. Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, Toews, Kane - all of these guys also have a shot at making their squads and will want to prove they deserve it.
What kind of effect will this have on the team? For Buff I think it will make him the player we always hoped he'd be, at least until the Olympics. The hope is that he does take off, does play well in the Olympics, and having tasted success, is finally focused and motivated to continue it. What about the rest of the guys - will they focus too much on individual accomplishments? Will on-ice selfishness turn to off-ice issues?
I think the defenders will actually be helped by this pursuit. Keith, Seabrook, and Campbell know that their place on Team Canada will be based on their defensive work. In Campbell's case, that's because his offensive contribution is already proven, so if he can be a solid two-way guy, he'll have a shot.
There are talks of Keith and Seabrook being the #1 unit for Team Canada - a pretty lofty perch, but given the way they play together, they just might be the best combo in the world. That sounds strange, but if you're the best pairing from the most talented country, you're the best there is. To prove this is the case, Keith and Seabrook won't need to inflate personal numbers but instead do what they always do - shut down the other team's top line while sparking their forwards.
I think the more realistic concern is with Toews and Kane, and probably moreso with Kane. Toews could, as he did to start last year, put too much pressure on himself and struggle out of the gate. But I think he's too committed to the Hawks to let the Olympics take away from his game, especially having seen what not having his head in the right place will do. Instead I've got faith Toews will come out of the gate playing as well as he did to end last year.
Kane, on the other hand, could be an issue. He is similar to Buff in that his focus and commitment seems to lag here and there. He's so talented he's able to make a play or two every game anyway, but there's a real difference with Kane when he's working hard every shift and when he's just floating around the ice. All the rumors about him have suggested that while Toews is 21 going on 40, Kane is 20 going on 15.
So the draw of the Olympics could play on Kane's immaturity and have him thinking a bit too much about himself. Not only would that hurt his and the team's play, but it could upset the lockerroom. On the flipside, it's possible Kane uses the Olympics like Buff does, as a reason to be busting hump on every single shift of every game. His talent is immeasurable, so if Kane were to put it all out there every night, we could see him elevate from star to superstar.
In all, I see the Hawks dealing with the standard ups and downs that every team does, but I think there will be far more ups than downs and that the Hawks might just be able to overtake the Wings for the division. The Wings have lost some significant talent and have to be worn down by two straight brutal runs to the Cup Finals. Their goalie situation remains a concern (how much longer can Osgood remain top form?) and a lack of regular season focus has to be an issue for a team clearly playing for the big prize.
Not that the Wings will be a push over - they still are absurdly talented and play a great system of hockey. I think the Hawks might be able to catch or even surpass them in talent, but I don't see them ever equaling the Wings in the way they excel within their system. I see this year as a bit of a dog fight, with the Hawks at least having a shot to use Hossa's return to full speed and the continuing development of their immense young talent to catch the Wings down the stretch.
I don't see any early or mid-season injuries or struggles bothering the Hawks, as they'll have the talent to remain near the top of a Western Conference that isn't terribly deep. The only goal I have is for the Hawks to be fully healthy and clicking come the last month or so.
Winning the division and/or getting one of the top seeds in the West would be nice, but the Hawks are more than capable of post-season success as a bad seed. At the end of the day only a return trip to the Western Conference Finals will save this season from being a disappointment. Remember as Huet struggles or injuries mount or skaters disappoint that the Penguins looked to have taken a major step backward last year before they fired their coach, rediscovered themselves, and then blitzed straight to the Cup.
As long as the Hawks aren't showing any glaring issues or lose anyone to an injury that will cost them the playoffs, I've got faith that I'll be writing a very positive playoff prediction come April. I think both the Burish and Hossa injuries will allow the team to develop both scoring and grinder depth, so that upon their returns the Hawks will have a number of guys who can hurt you in a number of ways. And that's what's necessary to winning it all.
Final note - the biggest concern come the playoffs, if the team is healthy and playing like it should, will be Huet. Even if he has a Vezina regular season, he's fairly unproven come the post-season. But the same works in reverse - the regular season won't tell me a ton about Huet's ability to carry them. If he struggles now it won't bother me too much - he just needs to play like the guy who stood on his head in a must-win game against the Wings last May. Unfortunately, we won't know whether he can do that consistently in the Cup Playoffs until the Cup Playoffs.
So don't fret too much about Huet now - we'll have plenty of time for that this Spring. Instead, keep an eye on the health and effectiveness of the rest of the squad, none of whom are yet at a reliable place in their careers where you know what to expect.
Part II - Forwards, Part III - Defensemen
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