The Hawks still are a few weeks away from dropping the puck on the 2009-2010 season in Finland and already two of their key pieces for the year are out longterm.
Shortly after the hubbub of the Hossa signing had died down, it was leaked that the $62.8M winger had a lingering shoulder injury from that would keep him out possibly for half of the season. More recent reports have Hossa with a November return, only costing him 1/5 of the season or so.
Just today it was announced that Adam Burish, the scrappy fourth liner who really came into his own as both a penalty killer and source of unexpected offense will be out for six months with an ACL injury.
So what does this mean? It means that the Hawks are looking smarter than us all - that includes the commentators who were insistent the Hawks had to deal away some forwards and all of us fans who believed much the same (myself included). On paper the Hawks looked like they were over-loaded both on the bench and on the cap sheet, but injuries have to be expected in the NHL, and thanks to this surplus of talent and payroll, the Hawks are in good shape to weather both of these major blows.
I don't pretend to be an expert on the Cap, but it's my understanding that an injured player doesn't count against your number, at least in some situations. With both Hossa and Burish being shelved for a while, I'm blindly guessing this means they'll qualify to come off the books temporarily and alleviate the current cap concerns.
The other big part of this story is that it opens up a pair of roster spots for some of the promising young Hawks prospects. As things stand, the lines will more or less resemble the following:
Toews-Kane-Sharp
Bolland-Versteeg-Ladd
Madden-Kopecky-Buff
Frasier-Eager-Brouwer
Now JQ is notorious for moving guys around, so the above is more for understanding who the Hawks have and what level of quality they are then predicting who will actually skate with whom to start the season.
When Hossa and Burish were expected to play, Frasier was probably out of a NHL spot and Brouwer nothing more than the extra forward. Now both are regular skaters while the 13th forward spot suddenly is attainable for any young Hawk who can impress the coaching staff.
The early favorite has to be Jack Skille, a former first round pick who's got good speed, has skated with the Hawks in the past, and has been impressive so far in training camp. Skille had some injury issues last year that kept him from building on a decent 07-08, when he scored 3 goals and 2 assists in 16 games with the Hawks.
Skille has never really dominated in the AHL as you'd like to see (scoring 16 and 20 goals and 18 and 25 assists in around 60 games each of the past two seasons). But he is fast, does have some skill, and given the way he's been noticeable all over the ice in the pre-season, seems to be highly motivated. I'd like to see him get a real chance to show what he can do at the NHL level.
Last year's first round pick, Kyle Beach, could also get a look, but he's still got junior eligibility left and isn't terribly polished, so he likely will get returned to his junior squad. He's a bit of a head case, but also a physical presence and real instigator who could provide some edge to an athletic Hawks roster.
I haven't heard about anyone else doing much to warrant the final spot, but you never know when a guy will come on. Jacob Dowell skated in a game late last year for the Hawks and has been talked about as a possibility this pre-season. Tim Brent appeared in a pair of NHL contests as well. Especially because the spot will often be a healthy scratch, the Hawks may want to carry a low ceiling guy who they don't mind short-changing out of regular ice time rather than a prospect they have high hopes for.
Personally I hope Skille gets the nod and both Frasier and Brouwer are challenged to earn their regular starts. Frasier needs to follow Burish's example and make himself an invaluable penalty killer and high-energy offensive type. That doesn't mean Frasier will get much for numbers, just that he has to work really hard to at least create chances and pressure the other team during that 4th line shift. He showed signs of being able to that last year, but the way he was scratched for the playoffs shows JQ isn't sold on him yet.
I've made no secret of my distaste for Brouwer, whom I felt didn't do much for the intangibles and certainly didn't take advantage of the plethora of chances he got playing on the Hawks potent scoring lines. I'd like to see him remain as a 4th liner and develop into a serviceable grinder, rather than be a drag on a scoring line as he was last year.
Between those two and Skille, you hope you can find a serviceable producer capable of moving up to a scoring line when necessary and an impactful fourth liner with athleticism, grit, and smarts. I think that'll happen.
The one wrench in all of these plans - Versteeg and Bolland both have been out with mysterious ailments. Bolland's seems to be largely precautionary, but Versteeg's injury was suffered in a pre-season game and could be more serious than is so far being reported. If both skaters have to miss time, the Hawk's offense is really going to be short-handed. If even one is out for a while, it'll be noticeable.
But if both do come back to start the season, I think the Hawks should be fine until they get Hossa in November or December. At that point the Hawks will have some decent depth to play through the other random injuries that certainly will hit. The hope will just be that everyone - including Burish - can be at full speed come the playoffs, when the Hawks season will really begin.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
I'm a Gemini, So I Expect The Unexpected
In case you don't get the obscure reference in the post title, it's from Kentucky Fried Movie, one of the more tasteless and hilarious movies there is. It's from the guys who made Air Plane and the Naked Guns, and is best described as 70s era SNL w/o censors. I mean absolutely no censors. Well worth seeing - it's probably as quotable of a movie as you'll find.
And while I'm pimping movies - if you haven't seen Slap Shot at least three to five times and you're taking the time to read a blog like this, you need to immediately rectify that situation. You can't be a hockey fan w/o being able to consistently quote and recognize quotes from Slap Shot, even the obscure ones.
Now to the actual point of the post title - apparently the Hawks management cannot be expected to do what everyone thinks they're going to do. Last year there was a lot of talk about the Hawks getting Campbell, as he fit a major need, the Hawks had cap space, and they wanted to take a big step forward. But no one saw the Huet signing coming, not with Khabi locked up for another year at an untradeable (hell, turns out un-waivable) number.
This year, much the same. It seemed the Hawks were gonna find a way to get Havlat back in the fold, as he seemed to legitimately want to stay in Chicago (if you believe the tone of his tweets) and his teammates seemed to share those sentiments (there was a story about them all texting him to re-sign).
Even if Marty did go elsewhere, the Hawks would either use that money in a new direction (an upgrade on the blueline) or find a lesser but still talented forward to take Marty's spot as a top line forward.
But again, no one saw the Hossa signing coming. Getting the top free agent for the second year in a row, again for the longest and richest contract of the off-season? Nope, definitely did not have that high on the list of expected stories from this off-season for the Hawks.
At first it seemed to completely defy logic - so much money and such a long contract for a 30-year old? But here's the reality on Hossa:
In fact, the Hawks actually saved money from last season's budget, as Havlat was a $6M hit. Coupled with the savings on Khabi (signed w/ Edmonton), the Hawks now have some room to maneuver. Amazing to upgrade your team and free up cap space at the same time.
And don't worry about the 12-year nature of the deal. It's really only an 8-year deal, as in the final four years Hossa gets paid next to nothing. So it'll be easy enough for the Hawks to unload him on a small market team who doesn't have the resources to approach the salary cap, but will appreciate needing to shell out less than $1M in real salary. And for the great majority of those years, Hossa should be worth every penny.
In all, I'm pretty damn stoked about this move. The reality is that the Hawks needed another top notch scoring option to go along with their young kids, and if it wasn't going to be Havlat, then getting Hossa w/o giving up any talent and only losing $5.2M in cap space is about as best case scenario as any of us could have hoped. Really - this is going to be a real winner of a signing.
Now like Campbell, Hossa will probably be hammered at times for not living up to his huge contract by the fans and the press, but just like Campbell, I expect that the actual knowledgeable fans will appreciate that he was well worth the price paid, especially when you factor in that the Hawks didn't lose any talent in acquiring him. Both guys are veterans who have rare skill sets and make their biggest impact when it matters most. A lot of money, a lot of years, but the Hawks will be successful because of it.
As for the rest of the Hawks' off-season moves, I love the Bolland signing. I think he will absolutely be worth the almost $3.4M he'll get each of the next five seasons. He's still very young (just turned 23 a few weeks ago) and is an impact player on both ends of the ice. I'd like to see Bolland really upgrade his work in the face-off circle, but he's got room to grow and fits this team well.
I'm also very pleased with the Kopecky and Madden signings. Kopecky is a guy who scored 5 and 6 goals in the past two seasons while playing a consistent 10 minutes a game on a highly talented and successful team. That means he brings something to the table besides scoring, which means toughness and strong defense. Plus, getting anyone who's come up in the impressive Wings system means you're getting a guy who knows how to play championship hockey on both ends of the ice. All those little things the Wings did to look so much better than the Hawks - Kopecky will bring those with him.
While Kopecky is still pretty young - turned 27 in February - Madden is fairly old (36 as of May). But Madden is a nice replacement for Pahlsson, bringin the same great defensive work and solid work in the face-off circle. A one-time Selke winner (top defensive forward), Madden brings years of the defense-first mindset and championship play of a longtime Devil.
I'm even more happy about these signings given that Pahlsson got almost $8M over three years from the Blue Jackets. I'd have loved to keep Sammy, but the Hawks couldn't afford that kind of cap hit for that long. Kopecky reportedly will only get a shade over $1M, which is inline with a talented 3rd or 4th line guy like he'll be. And while Madden will make about what Sammy got, it's only for one season, so next year, when the Kane-Toews-Keith triumvirate comes up, they'll have more flexibility.
And two bits of good riddance - not that I don't appreciate what they did for the Hawks last season, but I'm fine w/ the Hawks not paying their apparent market value. I'll take the more reliable health history of Huet and giving Niemi or Crawford a chance to back-up (tho remember, expect the unexpected with the Hawks... maybe there's still another goalie deal in the works) rather than paying another big chunk of change to Khabi. Similarly, Walker was of questionable worth at the league minimum last year, so no way I wanted the Hawks to match the $1.7M per that he got from the Lightning for the next four years.
So what now? Barker, Brouwer, Eager, Frasier, A. Johnson, and Versteeg all need to be re-signed (tho all are restricted free agents, giving the Hawks full matching rights). And w/ Walker gone, and AJohnson very possibly also (the Hawks didn't seem to think much of him), some plan needs to be made for the 6th and 7th defenseman positions (maybe a young kid like Jordan Hendry or a deal once free agency shakes out?). Given the signing of three forwards and the loss of only two, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks package one of their forwards who makes a bit of money (maybe Buff?) for a blueliner.
The main hope for me is that both Eager and Versteeg, like Bolland, are locked up for a long time. Both are incredibly valuable players who will only get better, and bring a toughness and skill combination that is absolutely necessary to post-season success. On top of that, I'd like to see any remaining dollars plowed into a stable stay-at-home defenseman. Do those three things and I'm feeling damn good about the Hawks next year.
And while I'm pimping movies - if you haven't seen Slap Shot at least three to five times and you're taking the time to read a blog like this, you need to immediately rectify that situation. You can't be a hockey fan w/o being able to consistently quote and recognize quotes from Slap Shot, even the obscure ones.
Now to the actual point of the post title - apparently the Hawks management cannot be expected to do what everyone thinks they're going to do. Last year there was a lot of talk about the Hawks getting Campbell, as he fit a major need, the Hawks had cap space, and they wanted to take a big step forward. But no one saw the Huet signing coming, not with Khabi locked up for another year at an untradeable (hell, turns out un-waivable) number.
This year, much the same. It seemed the Hawks were gonna find a way to get Havlat back in the fold, as he seemed to legitimately want to stay in Chicago (if you believe the tone of his tweets) and his teammates seemed to share those sentiments (there was a story about them all texting him to re-sign).
Even if Marty did go elsewhere, the Hawks would either use that money in a new direction (an upgrade on the blueline) or find a lesser but still talented forward to take Marty's spot as a top line forward.
But again, no one saw the Hossa signing coming. Getting the top free agent for the second year in a row, again for the longest and richest contract of the off-season? Nope, definitely did not have that high on the list of expected stories from this off-season for the Hawks.
At first it seemed to completely defy logic - so much money and such a long contract for a 30-year old? But here's the reality on Hossa:
- He's as durable as any in hockey - only once in the last decade failing to play 74 games and that year he played 60.
- He's as potent of a scorer as you'll find in any free agent class - the Crosbys and Ovechkins of the world aren't ever hitting the open market, so Hossa is as good as you can ever hope to get.
- He's as consistent of a scorer as any in hockey - failing to net at least 29 goals only once in the last decade, in the same year he failed to play 74 games (still had 26 goals in 60 games that season).
- He's a fairly big, fairly strong guy who is not easy to get off of the puck - this is no softy who will be lost in the rough-and-tumble of the playoffs. While he was a bit off this year (still scoring 6 goals and 15 points in 23 games), with the Penguins he had 12 goals and 26 points in 20 playoff games, and back during the Senators run to the Conf. Finals, he had 5 goals and 16 points in 18 games.
- He's a good player in all three zones - another huge key come playoff time, you've got to be able to play defense and want to do it. That was my one issue with Havlat this year - he disappeared defensively in the playoffs after being a real hard three-zone worker in the regular season. But come the post-season, Havlat floated up near the blue line too much, clearly looking for that breakaway chance. This is something I don't expect from Hossa.
- He's a winner - two straight trips to the Cup Finals and a Eastern Conference Finals trip back during his time in Ottawa show he's been there and can help his teams get it done. Sure he's still missing that Cup, but just getting there twice shows the impact this guy has.
In fact, the Hawks actually saved money from last season's budget, as Havlat was a $6M hit. Coupled with the savings on Khabi (signed w/ Edmonton), the Hawks now have some room to maneuver. Amazing to upgrade your team and free up cap space at the same time.
And don't worry about the 12-year nature of the deal. It's really only an 8-year deal, as in the final four years Hossa gets paid next to nothing. So it'll be easy enough for the Hawks to unload him on a small market team who doesn't have the resources to approach the salary cap, but will appreciate needing to shell out less than $1M in real salary. And for the great majority of those years, Hossa should be worth every penny.
In all, I'm pretty damn stoked about this move. The reality is that the Hawks needed another top notch scoring option to go along with their young kids, and if it wasn't going to be Havlat, then getting Hossa w/o giving up any talent and only losing $5.2M in cap space is about as best case scenario as any of us could have hoped. Really - this is going to be a real winner of a signing.
Now like Campbell, Hossa will probably be hammered at times for not living up to his huge contract by the fans and the press, but just like Campbell, I expect that the actual knowledgeable fans will appreciate that he was well worth the price paid, especially when you factor in that the Hawks didn't lose any talent in acquiring him. Both guys are veterans who have rare skill sets and make their biggest impact when it matters most. A lot of money, a lot of years, but the Hawks will be successful because of it.
As for the rest of the Hawks' off-season moves, I love the Bolland signing. I think he will absolutely be worth the almost $3.4M he'll get each of the next five seasons. He's still very young (just turned 23 a few weeks ago) and is an impact player on both ends of the ice. I'd like to see Bolland really upgrade his work in the face-off circle, but he's got room to grow and fits this team well.
I'm also very pleased with the Kopecky and Madden signings. Kopecky is a guy who scored 5 and 6 goals in the past two seasons while playing a consistent 10 minutes a game on a highly talented and successful team. That means he brings something to the table besides scoring, which means toughness and strong defense. Plus, getting anyone who's come up in the impressive Wings system means you're getting a guy who knows how to play championship hockey on both ends of the ice. All those little things the Wings did to look so much better than the Hawks - Kopecky will bring those with him.
While Kopecky is still pretty young - turned 27 in February - Madden is fairly old (36 as of May). But Madden is a nice replacement for Pahlsson, bringin the same great defensive work and solid work in the face-off circle. A one-time Selke winner (top defensive forward), Madden brings years of the defense-first mindset and championship play of a longtime Devil.
I'm even more happy about these signings given that Pahlsson got almost $8M over three years from the Blue Jackets. I'd have loved to keep Sammy, but the Hawks couldn't afford that kind of cap hit for that long. Kopecky reportedly will only get a shade over $1M, which is inline with a talented 3rd or 4th line guy like he'll be. And while Madden will make about what Sammy got, it's only for one season, so next year, when the Kane-Toews-Keith triumvirate comes up, they'll have more flexibility.
And two bits of good riddance - not that I don't appreciate what they did for the Hawks last season, but I'm fine w/ the Hawks not paying their apparent market value. I'll take the more reliable health history of Huet and giving Niemi or Crawford a chance to back-up (tho remember, expect the unexpected with the Hawks... maybe there's still another goalie deal in the works) rather than paying another big chunk of change to Khabi. Similarly, Walker was of questionable worth at the league minimum last year, so no way I wanted the Hawks to match the $1.7M per that he got from the Lightning for the next four years.
So what now? Barker, Brouwer, Eager, Frasier, A. Johnson, and Versteeg all need to be re-signed (tho all are restricted free agents, giving the Hawks full matching rights). And w/ Walker gone, and AJohnson very possibly also (the Hawks didn't seem to think much of him), some plan needs to be made for the 6th and 7th defenseman positions (maybe a young kid like Jordan Hendry or a deal once free agency shakes out?). Given the signing of three forwards and the loss of only two, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks package one of their forwards who makes a bit of money (maybe Buff?) for a blueliner.
The main hope for me is that both Eager and Versteeg, like Bolland, are locked up for a long time. Both are incredibly valuable players who will only get better, and bring a toughness and skill combination that is absolutely necessary to post-season success. On top of that, I'd like to see any remaining dollars plowed into a stable stay-at-home defenseman. Do those three things and I'm feeling damn good about the Hawks next year.
Monday, June 22, 2009
If I Were Dale Tallon (Part II)
Part I can be found here (or just right below this post).
In Part I, I discussed the Hawks forwards - who you could expect back, who I'd try to bring back, and who might not be around in 2009-10.
For Part II, it's on to the blueliners and goalies.
Keith (25:34 ATOI, +33, $1.475M), Seabrook (23:19 ATOI, +23, $3.5M), and Campbell (22:34 ATOI, +5, $7.15M) will not only assuredly be back next year, but almost certainly in 2010-11 and even well beyond. Campbell is locked up forever at an untradeable number, Seabrook is locked up through 10-11 (and is still restricted after that), and there's no chance the Hawks will let Keith get away after next season (when he's still a restricted free agent), no matter the cost.
Thanks to a strong post-season after being called up with only 19 regular season games remaining, Hjalmarsson (15:47 ATOI, +2 in the 38 combined regular season and playoff games, $645k) is looking like a very safe bet to be on the Hawks blue line in 2009-2010. And rightfully so - the Hammer has shown decent flashes in each of the past two regular seasons and stepped up to the challenge of playoff hockey quite impressively. Having just turned 22 a few weeks ago, with a full off-season to prepare for a regular spot, the Hammer is showing the upside to be a solid, feisty stay-at-home defender, despite his diminutive stature.
Much like Buff with the forwards, Barker (18:21 ATOI, -6) is the biggest question mark on the blue line. Unlike Buff, Barker made a consistent impact throughout the year, with a team-leading 25 PP assists and 40 total points. However, like Buff, Barker was maddeningly inconsistent - with good use of his size and stick often offset by glaring mistakes in the defensive end.
Barker is a restricted free agent, meaning he doesn't have a ton of negotiating room. However, he also made $2.77M last year and, as listed above, had some stellar numbers with which to command a significant paycheck.
There's no question the Hawks would miss Barker on the power play. More even than Campbell, Barker was the key blueline piece on one of the league's top units. And while Keith and Seabrook were also capable of lining up back there, both are too valuable otherwise to log many man advantage minutes. None of the other current in-house options are really good choices.
So losing Barker would create a significant void on the power play, a unit the Hawks relied on heavily, especially in the postseason. However, keeping Barker would mean yet another significant pay-out on the blueline, all without upgrading the unit defensively.
I'm really torn as to what I'd do with Barker. On some level I'd probably have to know what I could get back for him - my guess is that it's very significant. One of the reasons the Hawks invested so heavily in Campbell was because offensive blueliners are not easy to come by. It seems like there would be a lot of teams out there willing to trade significant assets to gain the services of a just-turned 23-year old with Barker's resume.
Ideally I'd keep Barker so as not to disrupt a power play that already is short on blueliners and also find a way to upgrade the final defensive spot with a veteran stay-at-home type who could compliment Campbell (allowing the speedster to push offensively with the confidence that his partner can clean up any messes). But financially that just might not be feasible. It might be a decision between Barker or adding that stay-at-home defenseman and keeping a forward like Pahlsson or Eager.
It's not an easy call, but gun to my head, I'm trading Barker for as much value as I can, restocking my system, and using the money to keep a Pahlsson or Eager as well as upgrade to that stay-at-home type the Hawks can so clearly use to round out their Top 4 defensemen. The Hammer and maybe Walker (for his size) or another emerging young kid or scrap heap type could skate as a strong third pairing.
Speaking of Walker (16:38 ATOI, +7), there's no question he brought some needed size and tenacity to the blueline. He's a pure free agent, but given that he only made $600k this year and is nothing more than a 6th defender at best, I don't think the Hawks would have to break the bank to bring him back. If it does turn out that there's a demand for his services, I say good riddance.
Ideally you can bring him back for about that same price (which is right around the minimum) and keep him as a 6th or 7th defender. Walker did get beat a ton during the playoffs, as the better skaters and teams exposed his utter lack of speed and inability to position himself to offset such. But Walker also worked very hard and is a hulk who uses every bit of his size, meaning he might just offset his downside, especially as he gets more comfortable in the Hawks' system. As a 7th defender, I'd love to have Walker, and I could even live with him as the 6th, if the Hawks would upgrade from Barker. But to keep Walker, Barker, and the Hammer means you're missing one true Top 4 defenseman, and most likely have to pair the lead-skated Walker and Barker together.
A guy I'm really curious about is Johnson (14:08 ATOI, +19), who started the year with 26 straight non-negative plus-minus games, only to get a bit banged up and never return to the regular mix. Not that plus-minus is everything, but a +19 and 26 straight games (the streak actually got all the way up to 31 before being snapped) without a negative seems to suggest a consistently solid blueliner. While in hindsight the decision was correct, it's very telling that even upon Wisniewski being dealt away, Johnson was skipped over by the Hammer.
Another pure free agent who definitely can be had for near the minimum, Johnson at the very least seems like the kind of guy worth keeping around for the same role he played this year - as a 7th defenseman. He just turned 26 at the end of April, so it's possible Johnson will get a bit better and produce as well as his numbers seemed to suggest. For some reason JQ doesn't seem to buy into those numbers, but it's still probably worth keeping him around to see.
Finally there's Sopel (for whom the Committed Indian - the bastard child of the old Blue Line - took to listing "talent" as the broken body part in their game night injury reports). Clearly the ugliest member of the Blackhawks, this year he was also the most worthless, looking impossibly slow and ineffective during 23 painful appearances at the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, in a rear misstep a few seasons ago, Tallon signed Sopel to a deal that promises him $2.33M each of the next two seasons. The NHL allows a team to buy out a contract, but a significant portion will still remain on the cap. The Hawks could try to find a taker, packing Sopel with some attractive young prospects to a team with cap space and a talent shortage, or by exchanging him for someone else's cap problem.
I'm trying to package him for a more expensive stay-at-home defensive option, both getting out from under dead cap space and upgrading somewhere the Hawks have a need. Somewhere out there exist an overpaid veteran blueliners who still is a strong contributors, just signed to bloated deal. Given how tight the cap is, why wouldn't a team give up that blueliner just for a bit of payroll relief?
If that can't happen, I'm not buying him out - one of the downsides is that the cap hit, while smaller, lasts for more years. I don't want to be hamstrung by Sopel for the next four seasons, as it becomes more and more difficult to pay everybody. Instead, I'd take the chance that he really was just hurt this year and can come back and possibly be that stay-at-home defender I'm looking for. If not, farm him out and bite the bullet for the season, then revisit again next year.
I've discussed this before, so I won't go too into detail, but my plan would be to let Khabibulin (2.33 GAA, .919 Sv%) walk and commit to Huet (2.53 GAA, .909 Sv %, $5.625M). Huet's a bit inconsistent, but I think with the right team around him and the right commitment to him, he could lead you to a Cup. He's shown the flashes of brilliance. He'll frustrate us all along the way, but Huet showed me a few things this year and clearly showed Tallon something in the past to earn his contract. I'm hitching my wagon to him.
Behind Huet, I like the idea of having Niemi and Crawford duke it out. Both looked solid down at Rockford this year, and both have been talked about as capable NHL goaltenders. Niemi might not want to stick around this hemisphere next year, as there are rumors he'd prefer to return to his native Finland. However, if he does stick around, the Hawks are in good shape - one of those two guys should emerge as a viable back-up, and maybe even the one to take over for Huet in 2011-12. And as we saw with Khabi this year - you need goaltender depth. Knowing that we'd still have two solid goaltenders on the roster if Huet or the back-up went down is a pretty comforting thought.
In brief summation, I'm resigning Havlat if his demands are reasonable, and then considering moving Buff and Barker, re-signing Pahlsson, looking for a veteran stay-at-home blueliner, ideally in place of Sopel. And if I can't re-sign Havlat, I'm probably not moving Buff or Barker yet, cause I should have the money to keep them both as well as to bring back Pahlsson and get my defensive defenseman.
Should be a fun couple of weeks - let's see what Tallon, McDonough, and the Bowmans have up their sleeves.
In Part I, I discussed the Hawks forwards - who you could expect back, who I'd try to bring back, and who might not be around in 2009-10.
For Part II, it's on to the blueliners and goalies.
Keith (25:34 ATOI, +33, $1.475M), Seabrook (23:19 ATOI, +23, $3.5M), and Campbell (22:34 ATOI, +5, $7.15M) will not only assuredly be back next year, but almost certainly in 2010-11 and even well beyond. Campbell is locked up forever at an untradeable number, Seabrook is locked up through 10-11 (and is still restricted after that), and there's no chance the Hawks will let Keith get away after next season (when he's still a restricted free agent), no matter the cost.
Thanks to a strong post-season after being called up with only 19 regular season games remaining, Hjalmarsson (15:47 ATOI, +2 in the 38 combined regular season and playoff games, $645k) is looking like a very safe bet to be on the Hawks blue line in 2009-2010. And rightfully so - the Hammer has shown decent flashes in each of the past two regular seasons and stepped up to the challenge of playoff hockey quite impressively. Having just turned 22 a few weeks ago, with a full off-season to prepare for a regular spot, the Hammer is showing the upside to be a solid, feisty stay-at-home defender, despite his diminutive stature.
Much like Buff with the forwards, Barker (18:21 ATOI, -6) is the biggest question mark on the blue line. Unlike Buff, Barker made a consistent impact throughout the year, with a team-leading 25 PP assists and 40 total points. However, like Buff, Barker was maddeningly inconsistent - with good use of his size and stick often offset by glaring mistakes in the defensive end.
Barker is a restricted free agent, meaning he doesn't have a ton of negotiating room. However, he also made $2.77M last year and, as listed above, had some stellar numbers with which to command a significant paycheck.
There's no question the Hawks would miss Barker on the power play. More even than Campbell, Barker was the key blueline piece on one of the league's top units. And while Keith and Seabrook were also capable of lining up back there, both are too valuable otherwise to log many man advantage minutes. None of the other current in-house options are really good choices.
So losing Barker would create a significant void on the power play, a unit the Hawks relied on heavily, especially in the postseason. However, keeping Barker would mean yet another significant pay-out on the blueline, all without upgrading the unit defensively.
I'm really torn as to what I'd do with Barker. On some level I'd probably have to know what I could get back for him - my guess is that it's very significant. One of the reasons the Hawks invested so heavily in Campbell was because offensive blueliners are not easy to come by. It seems like there would be a lot of teams out there willing to trade significant assets to gain the services of a just-turned 23-year old with Barker's resume.
Ideally I'd keep Barker so as not to disrupt a power play that already is short on blueliners and also find a way to upgrade the final defensive spot with a veteran stay-at-home type who could compliment Campbell (allowing the speedster to push offensively with the confidence that his partner can clean up any messes). But financially that just might not be feasible. It might be a decision between Barker or adding that stay-at-home defenseman and keeping a forward like Pahlsson or Eager.
It's not an easy call, but gun to my head, I'm trading Barker for as much value as I can, restocking my system, and using the money to keep a Pahlsson or Eager as well as upgrade to that stay-at-home type the Hawks can so clearly use to round out their Top 4 defensemen. The Hammer and maybe Walker (for his size) or another emerging young kid or scrap heap type could skate as a strong third pairing.
Speaking of Walker (16:38 ATOI, +7), there's no question he brought some needed size and tenacity to the blueline. He's a pure free agent, but given that he only made $600k this year and is nothing more than a 6th defender at best, I don't think the Hawks would have to break the bank to bring him back. If it does turn out that there's a demand for his services, I say good riddance.
Ideally you can bring him back for about that same price (which is right around the minimum) and keep him as a 6th or 7th defender. Walker did get beat a ton during the playoffs, as the better skaters and teams exposed his utter lack of speed and inability to position himself to offset such. But Walker also worked very hard and is a hulk who uses every bit of his size, meaning he might just offset his downside, especially as he gets more comfortable in the Hawks' system. As a 7th defender, I'd love to have Walker, and I could even live with him as the 6th, if the Hawks would upgrade from Barker. But to keep Walker, Barker, and the Hammer means you're missing one true Top 4 defenseman, and most likely have to pair the lead-skated Walker and Barker together.
A guy I'm really curious about is Johnson (14:08 ATOI, +19), who started the year with 26 straight non-negative plus-minus games, only to get a bit banged up and never return to the regular mix. Not that plus-minus is everything, but a +19 and 26 straight games (the streak actually got all the way up to 31 before being snapped) without a negative seems to suggest a consistently solid blueliner. While in hindsight the decision was correct, it's very telling that even upon Wisniewski being dealt away, Johnson was skipped over by the Hammer.
Another pure free agent who definitely can be had for near the minimum, Johnson at the very least seems like the kind of guy worth keeping around for the same role he played this year - as a 7th defenseman. He just turned 26 at the end of April, so it's possible Johnson will get a bit better and produce as well as his numbers seemed to suggest. For some reason JQ doesn't seem to buy into those numbers, but it's still probably worth keeping him around to see.
Finally there's Sopel (for whom the Committed Indian - the bastard child of the old Blue Line - took to listing "talent" as the broken body part in their game night injury reports). Clearly the ugliest member of the Blackhawks, this year he was also the most worthless, looking impossibly slow and ineffective during 23 painful appearances at the beginning of the year.
Unfortunately, in a rear misstep a few seasons ago, Tallon signed Sopel to a deal that promises him $2.33M each of the next two seasons. The NHL allows a team to buy out a contract, but a significant portion will still remain on the cap. The Hawks could try to find a taker, packing Sopel with some attractive young prospects to a team with cap space and a talent shortage, or by exchanging him for someone else's cap problem.
I'm trying to package him for a more expensive stay-at-home defensive option, both getting out from under dead cap space and upgrading somewhere the Hawks have a need. Somewhere out there exist an overpaid veteran blueliners who still is a strong contributors, just signed to bloated deal. Given how tight the cap is, why wouldn't a team give up that blueliner just for a bit of payroll relief?
If that can't happen, I'm not buying him out - one of the downsides is that the cap hit, while smaller, lasts for more years. I don't want to be hamstrung by Sopel for the next four seasons, as it becomes more and more difficult to pay everybody. Instead, I'd take the chance that he really was just hurt this year and can come back and possibly be that stay-at-home defender I'm looking for. If not, farm him out and bite the bullet for the season, then revisit again next year.
I've discussed this before, so I won't go too into detail, but my plan would be to let Khabibulin (2.33 GAA, .919 Sv%) walk and commit to Huet (2.53 GAA, .909 Sv %, $5.625M). Huet's a bit inconsistent, but I think with the right team around him and the right commitment to him, he could lead you to a Cup. He's shown the flashes of brilliance. He'll frustrate us all along the way, but Huet showed me a few things this year and clearly showed Tallon something in the past to earn his contract. I'm hitching my wagon to him.
Behind Huet, I like the idea of having Niemi and Crawford duke it out. Both looked solid down at Rockford this year, and both have been talked about as capable NHL goaltenders. Niemi might not want to stick around this hemisphere next year, as there are rumors he'd prefer to return to his native Finland. However, if he does stick around, the Hawks are in good shape - one of those two guys should emerge as a viable back-up, and maybe even the one to take over for Huet in 2011-12. And as we saw with Khabi this year - you need goaltender depth. Knowing that we'd still have two solid goaltenders on the roster if Huet or the back-up went down is a pretty comforting thought.
In brief summation, I'm resigning Havlat if his demands are reasonable, and then considering moving Buff and Barker, re-signing Pahlsson, looking for a veteran stay-at-home blueliner, ideally in place of Sopel. And if I can't re-sign Havlat, I'm probably not moving Buff or Barker yet, cause I should have the money to keep them both as well as to bring back Pahlsson and get my defensive defenseman.
Should be a fun couple of weeks - let's see what Tallon, McDonough, and the Bowmans have up their sleeves.
If I Were Dale Tallon (Part I)
The off-season is officially upon us, though the actual moving and shaking of the NHL's draft, free agency, and trade period has yet to get going. Figured I'd take advantage of this window to lay out what I'd do if I were steering the Hawks right now:
FORWARDS
Toews (34 G, 35 A in 08-09, set to earn $2.8M in 09-10), Kane (25 G, 45 A $3.725M), Sharp (26 G, 18 A, $3.9M), Ladd (15 G, 34 A, $1.55M), and Burish (6 G, 3 A, $712k) are all locked in for next year.
Versteeg (22 G, 31 A) and Bolland (19 G, 28 A) are restricted free agents without any arbitration rights, which means the Hawks can easily re-up with them at something reasonable (neither made even $1m this year).
Eager (11 G, 4 A) is restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but the Hawks shouldn't have much problem keeping him in the fold for fairly cheap (he was another guy who made under $1M this season).
Anything can happen in the off-season, especially in hockey where roster turnover is so commonplace. But my expectation is that the above eight players will certainly be back among the 12 forwards the Hawks are counting on every night. Toews, Kane, and Sharp are cornerstone players, while Ladd, Versteeg, and Bolland are all emerging young stars in their own right. Burish and Eager are very valuable as the rare energy/enforcer types who actually have speed and skill.
So who will be the other four or five forwards in the mix for playing time each night?
Byfuglien (15 G, 16 A, $3M) showed some real flashes of great things in the playoffs. But he also disappeared for long stretches. That's just who Buff is. In fact, look at his point output in the post-season and you get Buff. First four games - 0 points. Next two games - 4 points. Next four games - 0 points. Next three games - 4 points. Final four games - 1 point.
Points aren't everything, especially for a player like Buff, but that come-and-go scoring pattern really also describes his overall impact on the game - sometimes you can't help but notice him, other times you forget he's on the squad.
All the same, Buff could still grow into a consistent and impactful contributor, especially during the rough-and-tumble post-season play. And with $3M contracts each of the next two years, Buff might not be the easiest guy to get rid of in a world where the salary cap is down from last year.
Personally, I'm trying to get out from under that deal. Buff might eventually be a real good power forward, even a solid two-way player (remember, he came up as a defenseman), but the Hawks have to make some tough choices, and to me the potential of Buff isn't worth risking the given production of one of the many other players the Hawks are trying to keep in the fold.
Having just turned 24, with 19 and 15 goals the past two seasons, and the upside he showed in the playoffs, I think Buff can be moved fairly easily, possibly even bringing back a piece that fits the Hawks even better. And that's what I'd do - find Buff a new home, preferably in the East where even if he does develop, he won't hurt you. I like his potential, but I'm sick of waiting around for it. Buff has just not shown the mental toughness, focus, and concentration I need to be able to continue to commit $3M a year.
Frasier (6 G, 11 A), like Eager, is a restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but still should easy enough to sign for cheap. The question is does he still fit in the Hawks mix? Before the post-season I would have said absolutely, as he was a solid rookie who did a capable job centering the fourth line and killing penalties. But in the playoffs he was left out of the starting lineup for all but two games (when Kane and Havlat were injured), suggesting that Frasier isn't thought of as that important of a piece to the Hawks puzzle.
My guess is that the Hawks keep him around and see if he takes another step forward this season, especially in the face-off circle. As a 4th line and penalty killing center, Frasier needs to be able to win 52% of his draws, at least. Hopefully he learned from Pahlsson and is ready to develop into that type of centerman. Cause he's so cheap and has both upside and experience, I'd at least keep him around as the 13th skater, and give him a shot to win that 4th centerman spot.
Brouwer (10 G, 16 A) will turn 24 in August, so he isn't a total kid, but he's also plenty young to expect further improvement. I wasn't much a fan of his during the regular season, as he didn't seem to be great defensively, nor a high energy guy, nor a commanding presence physically, and he certainly wasn't very skilled. But Brouwer finally seem to figure out his role as a grinder in the playoffs, and might have a bit of a future there. He's a non-arbitration restricted free agent, so he'll come back cheap.
Again, like Frasier, the cost, upside, and experience convince me to bring him back, but also like Frasier, I need to see more out of Brouwer if he's going to continue with the Hawks. Skating with the top play makers on the team and netting only 10 goals and 16 assists won't cut it. I don't need him to be an offensive force, but I do need to see more garbage goals and having a hand in creating more scores for others. But most important, I need to see more energy, enthusiasm, and physical impact on the game. Brouwer needs to learn from Burish and Eager, who make their presence felt on every single shift.
Pahlsson (7 G, 11 A) is a free agent, but given that he made only $1.4M last season and isn't getting any younger (he'll turn 32 in December), there's no reason to think the Hawks can't get him for right around that same price again. The fact is that Pahlsson is an offensive black hole, only once notching more than 8 goals or 14 assists, despite regularly playing 80 games a year. Not too many teams can afford that on a Top 3 line.
Thanks to their ridiculous collection of young and improving offensive options, the Hawks absolutely can overcome Pahlsson's lack of scoring production. More importantly, the Hawks need his defensive skills and face-off work, both of which are some of the best in all of the NHL. After the success they had this year, the Hawks need to build their team for the playoffs, and that's where Pahlsson is most valuable. No question they should re-up with Sammy and slot him into their third line center spot. Coming back healthy (he was recovering from mono and had some injuries the entire time he was with the Hawks this year) and having an full off-season to get fit into the Hawks' system, Pahlsson should be a real asset next year - I think the Hawks would be fools to let him go.
I wish I was able to include him on the sure-fire to be back list above, but for whatever reason the Hawks and Havlat (29 G, 48 A) couldn't get on the same page for an extension during the season. Now the window to get Marty signed before he hits the open market is fast closing, so you wonder if it's ever gonna happen. For all of the injury issues and occasional inconsistency, Havlat is a rare talent who would be very hard to replace. He made $6M last year and only just turned 28 in April. If he can stay healthy, Havlat's proven that he can be a top flight NHL player.
So how much is he worth to the Hawks, a team who has to keep a very sharp eye on next year, when Kane, Toews, and Keith are all up (not to mention the escalating demands of the rest of their young crew)? I can't say I know the hockey financial system well enough to say. But with the salary cap coming down and Havlat's injury history, the hope is that the market for his services isn't great and the Hawks can bring him back into the fold. Havlat seems to like being part of this young club and has to appreciate that it's probably his best chance to win a Cup. Hopefully his salary demands are reasonable and we see him in the Indian Head sweater next year.
What the Hawks do with Havlat will dictate everything else. If they bring him back, it'll be tough to keep everyone else around and also upgrade anywhere else. If he goes, the Hawks have to decide if they try to use that money for some sort of scoring forward replacement, or instead reshuffle their finances to upgrade on the blueline or shore up the goaltending.
FORWARDS
Toews (34 G, 35 A in 08-09, set to earn $2.8M in 09-10), Kane (25 G, 45 A $3.725M), Sharp (26 G, 18 A, $3.9M), Ladd (15 G, 34 A, $1.55M), and Burish (6 G, 3 A, $712k) are all locked in for next year.
Versteeg (22 G, 31 A) and Bolland (19 G, 28 A) are restricted free agents without any arbitration rights, which means the Hawks can easily re-up with them at something reasonable (neither made even $1m this year).
Eager (11 G, 4 A) is restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but the Hawks shouldn't have much problem keeping him in the fold for fairly cheap (he was another guy who made under $1M this season).
Anything can happen in the off-season, especially in hockey where roster turnover is so commonplace. But my expectation is that the above eight players will certainly be back among the 12 forwards the Hawks are counting on every night. Toews, Kane, and Sharp are cornerstone players, while Ladd, Versteeg, and Bolland are all emerging young stars in their own right. Burish and Eager are very valuable as the rare energy/enforcer types who actually have speed and skill.
So who will be the other four or five forwards in the mix for playing time each night?
Byfuglien (15 G, 16 A, $3M) showed some real flashes of great things in the playoffs. But he also disappeared for long stretches. That's just who Buff is. In fact, look at his point output in the post-season and you get Buff. First four games - 0 points. Next two games - 4 points. Next four games - 0 points. Next three games - 4 points. Final four games - 1 point.
Points aren't everything, especially for a player like Buff, but that come-and-go scoring pattern really also describes his overall impact on the game - sometimes you can't help but notice him, other times you forget he's on the squad.
All the same, Buff could still grow into a consistent and impactful contributor, especially during the rough-and-tumble post-season play. And with $3M contracts each of the next two years, Buff might not be the easiest guy to get rid of in a world where the salary cap is down from last year.
Personally, I'm trying to get out from under that deal. Buff might eventually be a real good power forward, even a solid two-way player (remember, he came up as a defenseman), but the Hawks have to make some tough choices, and to me the potential of Buff isn't worth risking the given production of one of the many other players the Hawks are trying to keep in the fold.
Having just turned 24, with 19 and 15 goals the past two seasons, and the upside he showed in the playoffs, I think Buff can be moved fairly easily, possibly even bringing back a piece that fits the Hawks even better. And that's what I'd do - find Buff a new home, preferably in the East where even if he does develop, he won't hurt you. I like his potential, but I'm sick of waiting around for it. Buff has just not shown the mental toughness, focus, and concentration I need to be able to continue to commit $3M a year.
Frasier (6 G, 11 A), like Eager, is a restricted free agent who has arbitration rights, but still should easy enough to sign for cheap. The question is does he still fit in the Hawks mix? Before the post-season I would have said absolutely, as he was a solid rookie who did a capable job centering the fourth line and killing penalties. But in the playoffs he was left out of the starting lineup for all but two games (when Kane and Havlat were injured), suggesting that Frasier isn't thought of as that important of a piece to the Hawks puzzle.
My guess is that the Hawks keep him around and see if he takes another step forward this season, especially in the face-off circle. As a 4th line and penalty killing center, Frasier needs to be able to win 52% of his draws, at least. Hopefully he learned from Pahlsson and is ready to develop into that type of centerman. Cause he's so cheap and has both upside and experience, I'd at least keep him around as the 13th skater, and give him a shot to win that 4th centerman spot.
Brouwer (10 G, 16 A) will turn 24 in August, so he isn't a total kid, but he's also plenty young to expect further improvement. I wasn't much a fan of his during the regular season, as he didn't seem to be great defensively, nor a high energy guy, nor a commanding presence physically, and he certainly wasn't very skilled. But Brouwer finally seem to figure out his role as a grinder in the playoffs, and might have a bit of a future there. He's a non-arbitration restricted free agent, so he'll come back cheap.
Again, like Frasier, the cost, upside, and experience convince me to bring him back, but also like Frasier, I need to see more out of Brouwer if he's going to continue with the Hawks. Skating with the top play makers on the team and netting only 10 goals and 16 assists won't cut it. I don't need him to be an offensive force, but I do need to see more garbage goals and having a hand in creating more scores for others. But most important, I need to see more energy, enthusiasm, and physical impact on the game. Brouwer needs to learn from Burish and Eager, who make their presence felt on every single shift.
Pahlsson (7 G, 11 A) is a free agent, but given that he made only $1.4M last season and isn't getting any younger (he'll turn 32 in December), there's no reason to think the Hawks can't get him for right around that same price again. The fact is that Pahlsson is an offensive black hole, only once notching more than 8 goals or 14 assists, despite regularly playing 80 games a year. Not too many teams can afford that on a Top 3 line.
Thanks to their ridiculous collection of young and improving offensive options, the Hawks absolutely can overcome Pahlsson's lack of scoring production. More importantly, the Hawks need his defensive skills and face-off work, both of which are some of the best in all of the NHL. After the success they had this year, the Hawks need to build their team for the playoffs, and that's where Pahlsson is most valuable. No question they should re-up with Sammy and slot him into their third line center spot. Coming back healthy (he was recovering from mono and had some injuries the entire time he was with the Hawks this year) and having an full off-season to get fit into the Hawks' system, Pahlsson should be a real asset next year - I think the Hawks would be fools to let him go.
I wish I was able to include him on the sure-fire to be back list above, but for whatever reason the Hawks and Havlat (29 G, 48 A) couldn't get on the same page for an extension during the season. Now the window to get Marty signed before he hits the open market is fast closing, so you wonder if it's ever gonna happen. For all of the injury issues and occasional inconsistency, Havlat is a rare talent who would be very hard to replace. He made $6M last year and only just turned 28 in April. If he can stay healthy, Havlat's proven that he can be a top flight NHL player.
So how much is he worth to the Hawks, a team who has to keep a very sharp eye on next year, when Kane, Toews, and Keith are all up (not to mention the escalating demands of the rest of their young crew)? I can't say I know the hockey financial system well enough to say. But with the salary cap coming down and Havlat's injury history, the hope is that the market for his services isn't great and the Hawks can bring him back into the fold. Havlat seems to like being part of this young club and has to appreciate that it's probably his best chance to win a Cup. Hopefully his salary demands are reasonable and we see him in the Indian Head sweater next year.
What the Hawks do with Havlat will dictate everything else. If they bring him back, it'll be tough to keep everyone else around and also upgrade anywhere else. If he goes, the Hawks have to decide if they try to use that money for some sort of scoring forward replacement, or instead reshuffle their finances to upgrade on the blueline or shore up the goaltending.
- All cap numbers courtesy of HockeyBuzz.com (a full report on the Hawks' numbers can be found here)
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Reflections From The Wings Series
I wanted to write immediately following the loss to the Wings, but a combination of being busy and needing a lot of time to digest it all has put those plans on hold until now. But finally I'm inspired enough to lay out my main takeaways from the Detroit series:
Huet showed why he was given the big bucks and reminded us that for the better part of the season he played like a #1. Will he put up a nasty performance like he did in Game 5 every night? Probably not. But can you win consistently with Huet in the net? I'm leaning towards saying yes. Again, I think he's like Belfour - highly talented, a bit erratic, but on the right team he's fully capable of winning a Cup, and he'll always keep you competitive.
So I'm thinking Game 5 was the start of a new era. It's time to let Khabi go and hand the keys to Huet, while giving Crawford and Niemi a shot to prove themselves as the capable #2 who can take over for Huet in a few years (Huet will turn 34 in September). Sure, I'd love to keep Khabi, but two major roadblocks stand in the way, and there's no way around either.
Khabi, as brilliant as he was in the playoffs, couldn't stay healthy. He got hurt a few times last season and missed stretches again this year. It's easy to discount what Huet meant to this team, but given how often Khabi went down, Huet's steady and reliable presence was priceless. Khabi turned 36 in January, so you have to imagine these injuries will only become more frequent. Without another #1 on the roster, how can the Hawks win enough regular season games to get a good seed, while also keeping Khabi fresh for the playoffs?
Plus, as the Hawks learned this year - how can you build around a guy who could get hurt at the absolute worst time? Who knows how this series would turned out had Khabi been around for that disastrous Game 4? A win there and this is a totally different series. The fact is that you just can't have a #1 goaltender who can't be relied upon to start near 60 games and show up every single night in the playoffs. You cannot win with that set-up.
The second issue is that Khabi is just too pricey for the Hawks right now. Maybe things would be different had the Hawks not signed Huet, but that's the reality. And it's a reality I'm not gonna feel bad about - again, Huet was key in both getting us the wins we needed to have a strong regular season and in keeping Khabi fresh enough to thrive in the playoffs. With no Huet, the Hawks don't accomplish half of what they did this year, not by a long shot.
Moving forward the Hawks can't afford that much money tied up in their goaltending. The salary cap will actually go down next year (and possibly down again the season after) at a time the Hawks are going to have to pay many of their skaters significantly more money. Especially given the presence of two possible legit NHL goaltenders at Rockford, there's no reason for the Hawks to try to keep both Khabi and Huet in the fold.
Instead, one has to go. And when you consider Khabi's injury and endurance issues in combination with the fact that Huet is already locked up, it just makes sense to bring to a close the Khabibulin era in Chicago. I'll be sad to see his brilliant play go, but Khabi will make a great signing for a team with goaltending issues who wants a short-term fix that will give them a shot at post-season success. And the Hawks will be able to use that big chunk of money to keep as many of their great young skaters in the fold as possible.
The second major takeaway I got from the series was that the Wings are not more talented than the Hawks, but they are a far better team.
It's pretty simple really - if the Wings just had more talent, then the Hawks would have won that series. Because Detroit lost a boatload of talent as the series went on - Kopecky and Lilja never suited up, Datsuyak and Lidstrom - arguably their two best players - missed multiple games, Ericsson and Draper missed a contest.
So if it was just an issue of talent levels, the injuries would have tilted the talent equation in the Hawks' favor and they would have taken the series. Instead, the Wings outplayed the Hawks in every game, and no matter who was out on the ice, always looked like the far superior club. It's a testament to the level of innate talent and the grit of the Hawks that they hung so tightly with the Wings, because they just were in no way their equals.
There is just an inherent advantage to the system and the way the Wings players operate within it that gives them a distinct edge over the Hawks. For the Hawks to overcome this, it's not about adding more talent. It's about the Hawks and their coaches getting better as a team.
But I have faith that will happen. I'm a little leery of JQ, as the Wings have been eating his lunch for over a decade. Does he have the hockey mind to produce a system that can rival the Wings? And if so, does he also have the coaching talent and motivational skills to get the Hawks skaters to thrive within this system?
Because that's what it will take - the players need a good system and they need to execute at the highest level within it. But as I said - I have faith. Don't forget, this was only the second season that this core has been playing together, and really the first that it was all assembled in a way that made sense. 2007-08 was filled with injuries and featured a hodge podge of skaters mixed and matched under a different coach.
Now JQ has a core that won't change much, that has skated together for a great season and long playoff run, and has an entire off-season to work on his strategies and with the players to elevate their game to the next level. Plus, he's got the great Scotty Bowman - arguably the greatest hockey mind ever - to help him out.
Hopefully soon I'll be able to write a bit about the player moves I'd like to see the Hawks make this off-season, in terms of getting the exact right mix of personnel together for next year. However, as much as I love all the wheelings and dealings, the reality is that the only thing that will really take the Hawks to the next level in 2009-10 is an improved system and far better play within it.
It won't take a complete overhaul or dramatic leaps. But it will take significant coordinated effort and improvement from every aspect of the club. Better puck control, tighter defense, more intelligent play, improved spacing, and on and on. The system and the talent within it needs to all work together to bring the most out of every skater, and more importantly, the absolute most out of the team.
And if you're uncertain whether it can happen - look no further than the Penguins. They took a dramatic leap forward in 2007-08, making a long playoff and unexpected run. It ended when they were bested by a Wings team that wasn't more talented, but was far better at executing their game plan.
Sound familiar?
Hopefully, the Hawks can also mirror Pittsburgh's next step - overcoming Detroit's superiority not by upping their talent level, but instead by playing much better hockey, and earning Lord Stanley's Cup as a reward.
Huet showed why he was given the big bucks and reminded us that for the better part of the season he played like a #1. Will he put up a nasty performance like he did in Game 5 every night? Probably not. But can you win consistently with Huet in the net? I'm leaning towards saying yes. Again, I think he's like Belfour - highly talented, a bit erratic, but on the right team he's fully capable of winning a Cup, and he'll always keep you competitive.
So I'm thinking Game 5 was the start of a new era. It's time to let Khabi go and hand the keys to Huet, while giving Crawford and Niemi a shot to prove themselves as the capable #2 who can take over for Huet in a few years (Huet will turn 34 in September). Sure, I'd love to keep Khabi, but two major roadblocks stand in the way, and there's no way around either.
Khabi, as brilliant as he was in the playoffs, couldn't stay healthy. He got hurt a few times last season and missed stretches again this year. It's easy to discount what Huet meant to this team, but given how often Khabi went down, Huet's steady and reliable presence was priceless. Khabi turned 36 in January, so you have to imagine these injuries will only become more frequent. Without another #1 on the roster, how can the Hawks win enough regular season games to get a good seed, while also keeping Khabi fresh for the playoffs?
Plus, as the Hawks learned this year - how can you build around a guy who could get hurt at the absolute worst time? Who knows how this series would turned out had Khabi been around for that disastrous Game 4? A win there and this is a totally different series. The fact is that you just can't have a #1 goaltender who can't be relied upon to start near 60 games and show up every single night in the playoffs. You cannot win with that set-up.
The second issue is that Khabi is just too pricey for the Hawks right now. Maybe things would be different had the Hawks not signed Huet, but that's the reality. And it's a reality I'm not gonna feel bad about - again, Huet was key in both getting us the wins we needed to have a strong regular season and in keeping Khabi fresh enough to thrive in the playoffs. With no Huet, the Hawks don't accomplish half of what they did this year, not by a long shot.
Moving forward the Hawks can't afford that much money tied up in their goaltending. The salary cap will actually go down next year (and possibly down again the season after) at a time the Hawks are going to have to pay many of their skaters significantly more money. Especially given the presence of two possible legit NHL goaltenders at Rockford, there's no reason for the Hawks to try to keep both Khabi and Huet in the fold.
Instead, one has to go. And when you consider Khabi's injury and endurance issues in combination with the fact that Huet is already locked up, it just makes sense to bring to a close the Khabibulin era in Chicago. I'll be sad to see his brilliant play go, but Khabi will make a great signing for a team with goaltending issues who wants a short-term fix that will give them a shot at post-season success. And the Hawks will be able to use that big chunk of money to keep as many of their great young skaters in the fold as possible.
The second major takeaway I got from the series was that the Wings are not more talented than the Hawks, but they are a far better team.
It's pretty simple really - if the Wings just had more talent, then the Hawks would have won that series. Because Detroit lost a boatload of talent as the series went on - Kopecky and Lilja never suited up, Datsuyak and Lidstrom - arguably their two best players - missed multiple games, Ericsson and Draper missed a contest.
So if it was just an issue of talent levels, the injuries would have tilted the talent equation in the Hawks' favor and they would have taken the series. Instead, the Wings outplayed the Hawks in every game, and no matter who was out on the ice, always looked like the far superior club. It's a testament to the level of innate talent and the grit of the Hawks that they hung so tightly with the Wings, because they just were in no way their equals.
There is just an inherent advantage to the system and the way the Wings players operate within it that gives them a distinct edge over the Hawks. For the Hawks to overcome this, it's not about adding more talent. It's about the Hawks and their coaches getting better as a team.
But I have faith that will happen. I'm a little leery of JQ, as the Wings have been eating his lunch for over a decade. Does he have the hockey mind to produce a system that can rival the Wings? And if so, does he also have the coaching talent and motivational skills to get the Hawks skaters to thrive within this system?
Because that's what it will take - the players need a good system and they need to execute at the highest level within it. But as I said - I have faith. Don't forget, this was only the second season that this core has been playing together, and really the first that it was all assembled in a way that made sense. 2007-08 was filled with injuries and featured a hodge podge of skaters mixed and matched under a different coach.
Now JQ has a core that won't change much, that has skated together for a great season and long playoff run, and has an entire off-season to work on his strategies and with the players to elevate their game to the next level. Plus, he's got the great Scotty Bowman - arguably the greatest hockey mind ever - to help him out.
Hopefully soon I'll be able to write a bit about the player moves I'd like to see the Hawks make this off-season, in terms of getting the exact right mix of personnel together for next year. However, as much as I love all the wheelings and dealings, the reality is that the only thing that will really take the Hawks to the next level in 2009-10 is an improved system and far better play within it.
It won't take a complete overhaul or dramatic leaps. But it will take significant coordinated effort and improvement from every aspect of the club. Better puck control, tighter defense, more intelligent play, improved spacing, and on and on. The system and the talent within it needs to all work together to bring the most out of every skater, and more importantly, the absolute most out of the team.
And if you're uncertain whether it can happen - look no further than the Penguins. They took a dramatic leap forward in 2007-08, making a long playoff and unexpected run. It ended when they were bested by a Wings team that wasn't more talented, but was far better at executing their game plan.
Sound familiar?
Hopefully, the Hawks can also mirror Pittsburgh's next step - overcoming Detroit's superiority not by upping their talent level, but instead by playing much better hockey, and earning Lord Stanley's Cup as a reward.
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