The Beginning Of The End... Of What?

"I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving. "

Col. Kurtz from Apocalypse Now delivered the above quote, and I think it kinda defines the Hawks this post-season. They've sat precariously near doom a number of times, yet always have discovered a way to hug the precipice and keep on surviving.

They lose Game 1 to the Preds... but then won 2-nil to avoid a very ugly 2-0 hole heading back to Nashville. They lose Game 3, but avoided a 3-1 series by jumping out to a lead and riding Niemi to another shut-out. They were literally seconds away from losing Game 5 at home, sending the Preds back to Nashville for a close-out game on home ice. Even after Kane's short-handed tally, they still had to kill off the rest of Hossa's major and bury one of their own. Game 6 was no treat either - remember, it was 4-3 basically the entire 2nd and 3rd periods. One mistake and everything could have been different.

This series - more of the same. They get blown out in Game 1 and then are down 2-0 the next game before the Zamboni water is fully frozen on the ice. Four unanswered goals and some nasty play by Niemi tie up the series, but down 2-0 that early, one more mistake might have been all the Canucks needed to take a commanding lead back to Vancouver. Game 3, such a pivotal contest - the Hawks had a mere 3-2 lead into the third. If the Canucks score to tie the game in the third on home ice, the whole series momentum swings back in their favor. Instead the Hawks bury the 4th goal and ride out more strong play by Niemi.


So now, after yet another strong outing in Canada to take a big 3-1 lead, the Hawks return home and lay an egg. And that one loss might just be enough for Vancouver to wiggle their way back into this. Down 3-0 or 3-1, it's always that second win that's the hardest. Down 3-0, the other team let's up and you can easily steal Game 4. But when it's 3-1, teams know they have to end it now.

You know that if a team down 3-1 takes Game 5, they get the confidence of having set themselves up for a chance to reset the whole series. This is even more true if they're the road team in the series, with that reset game back on home ice. Because if it gets to Game 7, it doesn't matter how you got there - each team has an equal shot.

So, here are the Hawks, on yet another ledge. Can they again bring it when it matters most? Can they bury the Canucks on their home ice for the third time this series? Can they, yet again, bounce back from a subpar performance and beat a team they know they are superior to?


I'm of two minds, neither really on-ice related. On ice, I've got all the confidence in the world in this Hawks team. They are superior to the Canucks and have shown they are willing to outwork them. They do that for both of these next two games, I guarantee they win this series. One fluke loss when you outplay an inferior team - it happens. But to lose two times in a row when you're the better team and are working harder? No chance.

Off-ice, I've got two competing thoughts running through my head. The first is that I'm an incredible sports jinx - not just for my own teams. Not even for teams. I've jinxed my teams, my players, teams I hate, players I loathe. All it takes if a genuine belief in a forthcoming outcome and then a sincere statement of such witnessed by others.

Yes, this is of course all nonsense, but my buddy Face still hates me for jinxing the 2004 Cubs. And ironically enough, it was with Face that I made my most recent prophetic statement. We were debating what defines a "must-win" and I said any time you're looking at going down 3-0 or 3-1. To me "must-win" doesn't mean that you 100% have to win - that's just an elimination game. It means that you're putting yourself on the short side of some extremely prohibitive odds if you fail to take that game.

I don't have the numbers, but teams who are down 3-1 in the major sports rarely ever come back to take the series. Sure, it happens - just ask the Caps this year or those 2004 Cubs. And it actually happens in hockey a lot more than in basketball or even baseball, thanks to the way a goalie or some lucky bounces can so easily swing a series.

But the fact is that when you're down 3-1, you've left yourself absolutely no room for error. You've got to catch all the breaks, play every game superior to the other team, and hope that you don't get out-talented, out-lucked, or run into a hot goalie or skater.

So I emphatically made the statement that being down 2-1 made a game a must-win. This was before Game 4, so I was basically saying that the Canucks faced a must-win. And then they lost.

Did that jinx the Hawks? Did I just set them up to disprove my proclamation? Did I just inadvertently release the Paulie Jinx on my own team?

Therein comes my other way to think about it - I told you midway through the Nashville series that I had learned a valuable rule of thumb - always expect to lose two games in every NHL playoff series.

Guess what - we've lost two games. So no, I don't think I've jinxed this Hawks team. And, getting back to less superstitious crap, I don't think the Canucks have it in them to outplay the Hawks two more games. I don't think they can avoid untimely penalties for another 120 minutes. I don't think Luongo and his subpar blueliners can withstand the Hawks relentless attack for six more periods.

And I certainly don't think this Hawks team will fail to come to play two more times. I expect them to have a battle, maybe two, on their hands. But I expect the Hawks to out-work this Canucks team, just as they did for the greater parts of Games 2-4. Combined with their superior talent, I expect one of these next two games will be a Hawks W.

Sure, I'd prefer it happen tonight - who the hell needs drama? There will be more than enough drama in the remaining two series. But if the Hawks do lose in Vancouver, I expect the UC to be rocking and for the Hawks to again play their balls off and end the Canucks fragile title hopes.

And I'm also gonna repeat another expectation I had prior to this series - Niemi will throw a shut-out. Look back at all those bounceback games I listed at the start of the post. Niemi was a major factor in all of them. Games 2 and 4 of the Preds series were both shut-outs. Game 2 of this series, after those two goals, might have been the best he's played yet. Game 3, the momentum-changing game of this series - Niemi stopped 31 Vancouver shots, earning the second star for his efforts.

I said it before when discussing the way he was nasty in shoot-outs and OTs that Niemi had shown a bit of an ability to elevate his game when the stakes are highest. As inconsistent as he's been, I'm seeing that pattern play out in these play-offs as well. So maybe it's tonight, maybe it's Thursday - but I'm looking for Uncle Niemi to get us a shut-out, just as he's done every 5-6 starts all year long.

And then we can start talking about how we're gonna annihilate the Sharks.