Kovalchuk Rumors

Well, it's starting - the annual in-season hockey trade rumor period. Granted this is a bit early for any big moves, but you're gonna start to see smaller trades happen. Then things will take a funny route, as the Olympic Break falls right in front of the March 3rd trade deadline. That will give the front offices plenty of time to talk trade, but it also will take the focus of the hockey media away from whippin up trade rumors.

What's jump-started my attention today is a note I first read about on SecondCityHockey.com, which is fast becoming my favorite Hawks site. It's the guys who publish the Committed Indian, the deserving follow-up to the Blue Line, and they have a great mix of insight, comedy, and volume.

Atlanta's Ilya Kovalchuck is one of the best players in hockey, no question. A regular 40-50 goal guy, he's won a Rocket Richard Trophy (given to the NHL's top goal-scorer) and every year is in the hunt. He plays every game (hasn't had fewer than 78 since becoming a regular his 2nd season), gets a good number of assists (35-45), and at 6-1, 225, is a physical presence.

Take a second to check out his career numbers here to really understand how awesome this guy is:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/players/stats?playerId=1175

The Russian is only 26 years old, yet already has 322 career goals and - here's the key - he's set to become a free agent after this season. Kovalchuk supposedly is eyeing the $9M+ annually that Ovechkin got from the Caps. Such a big number is clearly giving the Thrashers pause, especially because they only have made the playoffs with Kovalchuck one time in his 7 year career, and are on the bubble again this season.

So as it stands, supposedly the Thrashers are going to make a decision in the next few days about what direction to go with Kovalchuck. At that time, it's possible a carnival-like trade sweepstakes could begin as Kovalchuk is definitely one of the most impactful rental players to hit the market in years.


And guess who is in the best position to get him? Your very own Blackhawks. With a surplus of proven young talent signed to reasonable but ample contracts and a win-now attitude, the Hawks are the perfect dance partners for Atlanta. So much so that the reports of a possible Kovalchuk market included the Hawks name specifically as a prime trade partner.

Now granted, even best-case scenario has this as a total long shot. Kovalchuk may not leave the Thrashers, he'll be tough to get if he does, and it's not clear the Hawks front office sees him as a good fit (a buddy of mine swears he's got inside info that they absolutely will not add Kovalchuk). But it's both fun and informative to consider the possibility, so let's give it a go.


Think about the current roster - the Hawks have 10 forwards who should be skating on one of the Top 3 lines - Toews, Bolland, and Madden up the middle, and Hossa, Kane, Sharp, Versteeg, Buff, Brouwer, and Ladd on the wings. That means the Hawks can afford to part with a pair of forwards for Kovalchuk and not create any holes in their gameday lineup.

The Hawks also have a 23-year old Barker who has rare and valuable offensive gifts buried on their third defensive pairing, managing a mere 13 minutes a game. Given the solid play Hendry has shown on the blueline this year and the heavy minutes the Top 4 defenders get, Barker seems an extravagance, especially given his occasional defensive lapses.

A quick look over the Hawks roster also shows that a number of the Hawks expendable trade pieces make enough money to combine to balance out Kovalchuk's cap number this year.

On top of all that, the Hawks have a pair of very good reasons to go for broke this year. Most importantly, they have a great shot to win the Cup for the first time since 1961 - they need and want to do everything they can to take advantage of this opportunity. The other issue is that come this off-season, the Hawks will be forced to parts ways with a number of their pricey players, thanks to the Toews/Kane/Keith extensions and the likely Seabrook extension next year. If a lot of these guys have no future in Chicago anyway, why not sell them now?


All that adds up to a Hawks team that has the motivation to upgrade now (for the Cup run), the expendable talent (more strong young players than they can give ice time to), the right contracts (productive players who can be combined for a similar cap hit as Kovalchuk), and the impending salary cap situation (which makes the departure of all these talented young players palatable) to put up the king's ransom a Kovalchuk deal will require.


Again, all of this is still at the very early rumor stage. As I said, the Thrashers haven't even decided if they want to deal Kovalchuk. And if they do, you'd better believe that every team in hockey will be competing with the Hawks. Obviously many don't make sense, but there will still be a large handful of teams that will make a legitimate effort. It's just that the Hawks seem to be in as good of a position as anyone to make it happen.

So would I want it to happen? Well, depends on the pieces. I can easily deal with losing Barker and Buff. Both are talented, but with the Great Salary Cull of 2010 coming, those two guys can't hope to be Hawks much longer, given their $3M salaries and their inability to be Top 6 or Top 4 guys.

I could even throw in a Ladd or Brouwer - I like those guys, but the Hawks are probably gonna have to give up a number of players to get Kovalchuk, and Ladd and Brouwer are the only two forwards who are young, have cheap contracts, and have real value. Again, with 10 forwards for 9 spots, it only makes sense that this deal would involve a 2-for-1 on forwards. Ladd especially makes sense, as he's up for a bump in salary this off-season as a restricted free agent.

But if we're talking Sharp or Versteeg, it gives me pause. Sharp has consistently shown himself a guy capable of doing a little bit of everything - he's good on offense, on defense, can play on the power play or kill penalties, can skate at center or wing, and is a real leader of this squad. Plus, he's a proven high-end player, as his stats with the Hawks have repeatedly shown.

As for Versteeg, his stock is down a bit right now as he goes through a bit of a scoring slump while at the same time upping his level of mental mistakes. Lately, you don't notice Versteeg as much as you used to, unless he's turning the puck over with an ill-advised pass or a reckless attempt to skate it into the offensive zone.

But the simple reality is that last year Versteeg was deemed one of the three best rookies to enter the NHL. He brings speed and play-making, two valuable commodities, and does so with grit and a strong defensive game. At only 23, Versteeg is already a respectable Top 6 forward and could soon develop into a strong one.


Other than those names, I don't see any other NHL-level trade options for the Hawks. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Seabrook are untouchable. They aren't going to part with Bolland or Madden, as they don't have the center depth, nor HJ, as he's young, cheap, and good at what he does. Campbell's contract is untradeable, Burish is going to be an unrestricted free agent, and Kopecky, Eager, Frasier, and Hendry don't really bring a lot of value.

And while I'd love to believe Atlanta sees the value in Sopel, that's a pipe dream - he's older, mildly expensive, and not that good. Who knows, maybe they're hurting on D and think $2.3M is reasonable for a veteran defender next year, but that seems like wishful thinking.


Ideally, the Hawks are able to convince the Thrashers of the rare value of a 6-3, 245 lb 24-year old who can score 20 goals and has surprisingly good speed. And the rare value of a 23-year old blueliner with size, a good shot, the ability to play the point, and very good puck-carrying skills. And the value of a 24-year old grinder with good size, 20-goal capabilities, a cheap contract, and under club control for the next few seasons. That'd be the pitch for Buff, Barker, and Ladd/Brouwer.

I can't say I know enough about hockey value to say if that'd be enough. When dealing a player like Kovalchuk, even as a rental, you'd think Atlanta would demand a blue chipper to base the deal around. But it's possible a big young power forward like Buff or a puck-moving defenseman like Barker does have that blue-chipper value, and that the combination of three proven NHLers under 25 is something they can't add anywhere else. That seems likely - remember, Buff, Barker, and Ladd/Brouwer were all key pieces to a very good Hawks team this year and last. It'd make sense they'd be a real nice upgrade to a mediocre club like the Thrashers.


At the cost of only those players, I'd do this deal in a heartbeat. Kovalchuk is just nasty and a Top 6 featuring Toews, Kane, Hossa, Kovalchuk, Sharp and Bolland would be unreal to watch. How would you possibly match-up against all that talent? Think about if the Hawks included Ladd instead of Brouwer and then kept the Toews-Kane-Brouwer line together. A second line with Bolland-Hossa-Kovalchuk? Hossa and Kovalchuk skated for a number of productive years together in Atlanta, so they know each other's games. And a third line with Madden-Sharp-Versteeg. That's your third line?!?

Now if I've got to include Sharp or Versteeg, I'm still probably gonna do it. My thought for next year was to keep both those guys around and try to save money on Barker, Buff, Sopel, and Kopecky. Depending on how things shake out, I might even deal Huet this off-season and turn the keys over to Niemi (that's getting ahead of ourselves - Niemi still needs to prove it for a lot longer and Huet needs to do well enough in the post-season to re-establish his value, while not doing so well that it becomes stupid to deal him away).

But if losing Sharp or Versteeg is what will get me Kovalchuk for a run this year, so be it. The Hawks still would have the guns necessary next season to be a Cup contender. They've done a great job developing young talent, so why not believe they could develop a few more guys to replace either Sharp or Versteeg. Or get creative out in free agency? NHLers have shown that they like to play for the better teams, even taking a less deal to get it done (see Hossa going to Detroit on a one-year contract last off-season).

Basically, when you've got a shot at someone as nasty good as Kovalchuk (arguably he'd become the best player on an already stacked Hawks team), you can afford to lose the valuable but not game-changing pieces like Versteeg, Sharp, Barker, Buff, Ladd, and/or Brouwer. Especially if you're in a place like the Hawks are now.


So even if this is all a long shot, it does make clear that we've got to expect anything come the trade deadline in March. After the way the Hawks have played, the front office knows this team has an amazing shot at the Cup and you know they want it as bad as we do. Given our situation as laid out above, the Hawks have the pieces to make pretty much any kind of move.

While that move almost certainly won't involve goaltenders (no one better than Huet is available and Niemi is playing as good as any #2 you'll find), anything else is possible:

Neidermayer in Anaheim? Why not - the Hawks could really use his unmatched experience, power play skills, and plus defensive work, and again, have the big assets needed to get him.

Other, lesser-named defenders? Makes perfect sense, as Sopel seems the weakest link on the current roster and Barker might be more valuable as a trade piece than 5th defender.

A centerman? A must-have if Bolland's back proves unreliable down the stretch.

A frontline scorer? Like with Kovalchuk, sometimes you can't afford to pass on a guy, even if it's not a glaring need.

A shut-down defensive wing? Paired with Madden, this would give the Hawks a nasty checking line, which is invaluable come the playoffs.

An injury replacement? If some kind of longterm injury hits a key Hawk player between now and the 3rd of March, the Hawks will have the pieces to find a decent replacement.


So whether it's about Kovalchuk or somebody else, it'll be fun to read and discuss the various rumors out there, as the Hawks are in a prime place to be in the thick of any and all player movement over the next two months. I have no idea what could happen, but I do know that the Hawks front office has proven again and again that they will not wait around for the Cup. The Campbell, Huet, Hossa, Madden, and Pahlsson additions all were relative surprises made because the Hawks saw a chance to make a significant addition and jumped all over it. It wouldn't surprise me to see another before the 3rd of March.