Monday, March 16, 2009

"See now, there's your problem - this here is 1901 W Madison. You thought you were at 1060 W Addison."

Alright, come in off the ledge already. Especially all you Cubs fans. The Hawks are not about to blow anything. Stop, breath, and read that last line again.

Some simple facts about some other NHL teams to help you sleep at night:
  • One recently finished a stretch where they lost three times in six games, TWICE giving up eight goals (and giving up five in the other loss).
  • One has lost six of their last nine, including three straight at home at one point.
  • One just came off a stretch where they lost four straight and six of eight.
  • One team has lost four of their last five, with the lone W coming in a shoot-out.
  • One just posted a four straight losses on a homestand.
  • One has lost five of their last nine, despite playing six of those at home.
Detroit, Boston, San Jose, Calgary, Washington, and Philly. That's who those above unnamed teams are, and those also happen to be seven of the top 8 teams in the NHL right now.

The fact is that besides NJ, every one of the top teams in the NHL has just gone through or is still experiencing a rough stretch of hockey. And NJ probably avoided it only because of the lift that Martin Brodeur's return provided.

And it makes sense. These teams all are locked into the playoffs, and while they're still fighting for positioning (especially now that they've lost some ground), for the most part they've been coasting unchallenged in their post-season slot for months now.

Of course there was going to be a let down precisely at the time the bottom teams realize that their post-season lives hang in the balance of every game, but before the true contenders ratchet it back up for the playoffs. It's no fun to watch, but if you realize it's happening, you can ride out the storm and know that a team like the Hawks will be just fine come mid-April.

Some other thoughts to help you feel better:
  • The Hawks still have a game in-hand on Vancouver for the #4 seed, as well as a two point lead and more total wins (the tiebreaker).
  • The Hawks remain on pace for the same 102 points that Calgary is on pace for. Calgary and Vancouver play in the same division, so if Vancouver remains hot and jumps the Hawks, the Hawks can still keep the #4 seed if they can finish above the Flames.
  • The Hawks play 9 of their final 15 at home, where they're still an impressive 18-8-6, even despite their recent struggles.
  • The Hawks have a 10 point lead and a game in hand on the 7th seed, meaning there's almost no way possible they could fall far enough to have to face either Detroit or San Jose in the first round.
  • The Hawks are 4-0 against Calgary and 2-1 against Vancouver (with a home game left), so even if they do fall to the #5 or #6 seed, they've proven they can beat their opponents both at home and on the road.
  • The Hawks are 19-13-3 on the road, one of the best marks in the whole NHL.
That last point might be what makes me feel best - the Hawks are a very good road team. And given all the hype and pressure that will surround these kids heading to the post-season for the first time, and the Hawks organization returning for the first time in 7 years, a good argument could be made that the best thing for the Hawks would be to start the post-season on the road.

Get away from Chicago media hype and pressure, focus all of your attention inward on the team as you travel together to Western Canada, and just go out and play some great hockey. Steal just one win and you can come back to the UC with a ton of confidence, some idea of what playoff hockey means, and a chance to take control of the series with back-to-back home Ws in front of the best and biggest crowds in the NHL.

One final point in case I haven't sold you already - the Hawks aren't even playing that poorly. They're just not catching the breaks. Including the OT game against Pittsburgh, the Hawks have lost 7 of their last 10. But in that stretch, they've failed to out-shoot their opponents only twice - on the road against the East's best team in Boston (where they still managed a highly respectable 35 shots), and the lay down against Colorado last Sunday.

In the other 8 they've not only out-shot their opponents, but done it in a HUGE way, averaging almost 38 shots for to only about 28 for their opponents. That's an absurd shot differential over a 10-game stretch. And it suggests that this streaky game of hockey just happens to be working against the Hawks right now, but that the underlying play remains solid.

The Hawks will turn things around. Getting Khabi back will help in a big way (even if he was a bit rusty yesterday), as will the return of Sharp and the introduction of Pahlsson. I'm still a big doubter of JQ's ability to win deep into the post-season, but you can't deny his ability to get his team there and win early.

So don't expect a Cubs-esque letdown of your high expectations. Instead, believe in the talent and execution the Hawks have shown and know that the best is still yet to come.

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