Hawks vs. Penguins

One thought before tonight's preview:

With the Penguins coming into town and the Hawks playing as well as they have been this year, there are some very quiet whispers about the Hawks repeating Pittsburgh's run to the Cup finals last season. While the Penguins were the #2 seed in the East last year, their 102 points are actually fewer than the 106 point pace the Hawks are currently on. Both teams were driven by a bevy of young talent mixed with some key vets. Neither team had done much in the playoffs previously.

While anything can happen (more on that in a second), I don't see the Hawks being able to make their way through both San Jose and Detroit this year. One maybe, but not both, back-to-back.

However, that might not be necessary. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are unlike any other in professional sport - favorites lose as often as win, and many times that can happen in the first round. A hot goalie, a distracted team, a well-coached squad that comes together at the right time, injuries - all of these things can lead to an odds-on favorite taking an early exit.

So why couldn't San Jose or Detroit get knocked off in the first round? Detroit's got goalie issues and San Jose could easily be looking past their opening opponent (they're having a Cup or bust type season). And even if they do survive, what's to say whichever team the Hawks don't face in the 2nd round won't get knocked off by Calgary or a some other hot club? Calgary is clearly a really good team (at least when they're not playing the Hawks), on pace for 107 points.

Not to say this is an expectation or prediction, just to say that the Hawks' play up to this point has put them in the realm of possibility for a Cup run. Especially if they can shore up with a trade or two, there's no obvious reason, except a huge lack of inexperience, that they can't do it. And don't forget the Hawks most experienced player - Khabi - is playing the game's most important position.

I still say one series win would make this a great season and just putting in a strong show in the first round would make this a strong growth season, but it doesn't hurt to have some higher hopes.

On to Tonight's Match-up:

It took the Penguins a few more years to complete the downfall and their bounce-back happened sooner, but their history has mirrored that of the Hawks since they met in the 92 Finals. After a long string of unsuccessful playoff appearances, in 01-02 the Penguins missed the post-season and didn't return again until 06-07. Last year's Cup Finals run seemed to announce they were back to perennial contention, but this year has been a disaster... so far.

Crosby has been hurt on-and-off (hampering his play more than costing him games) and things recently got so bad that the head coach was canned. So far that's looked like a good move, as the Penguins have gone 3-1-1 since and are just outside of the playoff picture, fully capable of earning the #5 seed with a strong final quarter. As a respectable road team (middle of the pack) and with plenty of non-Crosby weapons still on the squad, the Penguins will be dangerous tonight.

Offensively, the Penguins are in the top third of the league, an impressive feat given how pitiful their PP Unit has been (7th worst in the league). Even w/o Crosby (23 G, 56 A), the Penguins can still definitely fill it up. Malkin actually is out-producing Crosby this year (27 G, 61 A) and paces the entire NHL in points. However, he still needs to prove himself on the big stage after disappearing for long stretches of last year's Finals. Sykora (23 G, 20 A) has fit well with Malkin (especially on the PP), while recently acquired Kunitz (16 G, 19 A) of the Ducks should pair up with Crosby. Satan (15 G, 18 A), Staal (15 G, 17 A), and Fedotenko (13 G, 13 A in 45 G) can also all fill it up.

Defensively Pittsburgh has been brutal, ranking 25th in the NHL in goals allowed. Their PKs aren't too blame, ranking near the middle. Some of it has been that toung franchise goalie Fleury (2.88 GAA, .908 Sv %) has reverted to the inconsistent form he showed prior to last season's great run, calling into question if he'll ever live up to the hype. Of course he's 24, so he's got time to bounce back again.

One major reason for their defensive issues is a lack of health on the blue line. Their ice time leader, Whitney, had only played in 28 of their 62 games before being dealt to the Ducks yesterday for Kunitz. Gonchar (2 G, 3 A in 6 G) recently returned and brings one of the better point presences in the league to their blueline. Letang, Orpik, and Scuderi have at least been in the lineup consistently, if unspectactularly, while a group of four others have been on and off the ice with various ailments.

In the odds-and-ends department, Crosby wears the C, while Malkin and Gonchar have the A's. None of their centers are particularly strong on the face-off and most are actually pretty weak. Godard is your classic goon, suiting up for most games (56 of 62), but only getting 4:15 ATOI. In that brief time, he's been able to rack up 147 PIM, so if you go after one of their stars, he's gonna search you out. Or if you're looking for a likely dance partner, he's not gonna turn you down.

I see the Hawks taking advantage of the Penguin's defensive deficiencies to put a ton of shots on goal - something they've been doing with regularity in recent games. The question will be whether those shots are going in or not. Either way, staring ahead at 16 of their final 23 at home, the Hawks are in a good place to finish with a bang. Let's hope it starts tonight.