And You Are...? (part III)

I started this chain with an intro and write-up on the Goalies last week (here), went on to blueliners a few days ago (here), and am concluding it with my take on the forwards. First, a brief intro taken from that last post to get you up to speed on my purpose here:

...all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.

After 14 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.

Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.

Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.

Last Week - Goalies. A few days ago - Blueliners. Today - Forwards.


W Bryan Bickell, 24 years old, 4th season, $542k for 3 years, #29

We saw a bit of Bickell last season, enough to be encouraged about his potential to step into a Top 6 role this season, especially after he was very respectable in his few games of playoff exposure. Bickell had 23 regular season and three post-season games under his belt over the past three years, so he's not a perfect stranger to the NHL game. Still, this would be his first chance at regular minutes and a significant role.

So far the results have been up-and-down, as you'd expect. As is JQ's way, Bickell has been shuffled all over the lineup, seeing his minutes fluctuate from 10 to 19 on any given night. But he has been given some top line time and at first looked productive enough, notching 4 points in the first 5 games. Though that also included a -2 and three Hawk losses, so Coach Q has since moved him around.

But after that hot start, Bickell stopped making much of an impact - not just on the score sheet, but in bringing much physicality, energy, or anything of note to the game. He wasn't playing terrible, just not showing that hunger to impact the game that you'd like to see out of new guys trying to make their mark.

The result was a pair of healthy scratches and a role that now is limited to only 10 minutes, despite the loss of Hossa and Bolland. Somehow he only got 10 minutes in Wednesday's game against NJ, when JQ essentially ran w/ three lines, thanks to using Hendry and Scott as his 4th line wingers.

The good news for Bickell is that after putting up a shot or less in six of seven games, he's got two shots on goal each of the past three games, in only that 10 minutes of ice time. He hasn't been negative since the third game of the season and even has a couple of positive nights (not bad given four losses in the last five games he skated).

What do I make of Bickell? I think he can definitely be a nice complimentary top line player, but I feel that Q needs to commit more to developing his players. With the forwards it's less a matter of giving ice time to the youngsters as it is in putting them in a set role with the same pair of linemates and allowing them to build a rapport, some comfort, and ultimately, real confidence.

There is no question in my mind that one of the reasons the Hawks developed so many great role players that we were so sorry to see go this off-season is because they were around when the Hawks were still an un-established team and thus got long stretches of good opportunities to develop a niche for themselves.

I dig JQ wanting to win every night out, but he's also got to see that he'll be earning more points down the road if he shows some restraint and some patience by setting some lines that allow guys like Bickell to find out what kind of player they can be most productive as in the NHL. Bickell has size and a nice touch and certainly doesn't mind doing the dirty work. But can he hold his defensively? Does he have a nose for the goal or a propensity to take advantage of rare chances that come up? Is he a forechecker, a guy who can camp out in front of the net, someone who can skate all over or provide energy?

There are so many different attributes and approaches that a player can take to make himself into any number of different productive roles necessary on a championship team. Versteeg, Ladd, Eager, Burish, Buff, Madden, and Frasier all served very different purposes on the team last year, all based on what they brought to the table and the responsibilities they were allowed to grow into over time.

So JQ needs to appreciate that not only must he give guys like Bickell a chance to develop and show how good they are, but he needs to give them a chance to develop and show in what ways they can be contribute.

For now, I'm not sure where Bickell fits. But I do have faith he fits somewhere. Ideally I'd like him to be a guy capable of playing on the Top 6 if called upon and also a strong contributor to our power play unit. But given how effective both Brouwer and Kopecky have been on the top lines, it's also important that Bickell carve out a nice for himself as a guy capable of filling a Bottom 6 role. That means being a tough enough defender to serve on the checking unit or showcasing tremendous spark and tenacity to drive the energy line - neither of which I've really seen out of this kid yet.

Still, the skills seem to be there, a decent head for the game seems to be there, and a decent desire to make a mark seems to be there. So I'd definitely like to see JQ slot Bickell into one set role and just let him grow into it. I think we'll end up with a nice support piece that way.


W Fernando Pisani, 33 years old, 8th season, $500k for 1 years, #15

I like the idea of Pisani, and not just cause he's got a cool name. It's more that a veteran who's remained in the NHL due to his checking and PK skills is a valuable piece to a title-contending team, especially one that just got rid of all of its role players.

But I've got one issues with Pisani - I don't like him on the 3rd line, as he's clearly extremely limited offensively and also is taking valuable ice time from younger, more dynamic and capable player. I think he should be down on the 4th line, ensuring it's capable defensively to get a shift here or there against a non-4th line and not hurt the Hawks, and saving his legs for the PK.

I can't say I've seen enough of Pisani to know if he really is all that on the PK (much like with blueliners, it takes some time to fairly judge a skater's defensive abilities), but I'm gonna have a bit of faith in the Hawks front office and JQ until I see for myself otherwise (or hear enough rumblings). Given that he's the #2 forward in terms of PK minutes and that our PK unit has been a disappointment so far (only 83%, below average in the NHL after being one of the best going last year), I'm certainly not impressed.

But for $500k, I think the Hawks are smart to have picked this guy up and I like that JQ is trying to see if he's got a nice veteran defensive forward. I just think the Hawks would be better off with him getting the limited 4th line minutes instead of extended third line ones. Again, this is a case where JQ can't fall in love with the reliable vet - he's got to show a lil faith in his youngsters and know that Pisani will still be there to lean on down the road, when things really matter.


C Jake Dowell, 25 years old, 4th season, $525k for 1 year, #28

For a savings of $175k, the Hawks went from a known commodity in Fraser to an unknown in Dowell at their 4th line center. While I didn't love Fraser - he should have been better in the face-off dot - I also didn't mind him, as he worked hard, flashed just enough offense, and seemed a respectable physical and defensive presence as a 4th line pivot.

However, JQ didn't seem sold, sending him to the press box in each of the last two playoff runs, so giving up on Fraser to open up a shot for another prospect probably was the right call. Now the question is whether Dowell is the right guy to take advantage of the position that's opened up.

One thing I don't like right off the bat is Dowell's mediocre face-off percentage, down at a subpar 46%. However, he's only lost 8 more draws than he's taken and his percentage has been climbing steadily up of late, so maybe Dowell just needed some time to get comfortable. Much like with Fraser, it bothers me when a grindy 4th line center isn't bringing plus face-off skills to the table. Hopefully Dowell will get there.

Ditto for the PK unit, where Dowell is pulling only a minute a game. Sure, some of that is because the Hawks have a nice group of vets who can get the job done. But as a young 4th line center, I'd like to see Dowell take the pressure off of Toews and Sharp by playing well enough to assume twice as much PK time.

Other than that, I'm not sure what else to make of Dowell. He's skated with some decently skilled forwards - first Stalberg and Skille, then up as a 3rd liner with Bolland out. But I don't know if he's got upside beyond a 4th liner. I don't know if he's got either the scoring/playmaking touch or defensive shutdown ability to get regular center minutes.

Ideally, Dowell would be a 4th line plus center, meaning he brings more to the table than most 4th line centers and doesn't kill you if he has to skate a period or a few games as a 3rd liner. Because he's young, because the organization seems to like him, and because he's got a lot of talent around him, I'm gonna have some faith that Dowell might just become that before the year is out.


W Viktor Stalberg, 24 years old, 2nd season, $850k for 1 year, #25

Stalberg came over as the key piece in the Versteeg deal, bringing with a perceived ability to score thanks to an impressive combination of speed and size. The 9 goals he scored in 40 games of limited play last year suggested that the young Swede could thrive if given a chance next to some real gamers like the Hawks had.

So far he seems to be the newcomer with the most upside, tho as with so many other such talented youngsters, there are questions about his commitment. Not that he's been a major slacker, just that he hasn't shown an every shift, up-and-down the ice tenacity that you hope for out of someone trying to earn a major role.

Still, the guy can definitely play, showing a nice touch, great wheels, good size, and decent skills. With Hossa going down, he's getting some top line minutes and doing solidly with em. But I wonder if he's better suited as the offensive component of the third line? Mainly because the top two lines aren't hurting for skill - what they need is a hard worker who can support the studs.

However, on the third line, the Hawks were well-served last season with some skaters who could both check the other team's top line while also providing some scoring punch themselves. The question is can you get Stalberg to work hard enough to hold his own in the Hawks end so that he can provide that offensive spark?

Again, to me the answer lies in JQ just committing to Stalberg in that role. It's tougher now with Bolland and Hossa out, but when those guys return, I'd like to see Stalberg squarely installed on the third line to grow into the role. Given the coaching staff's track record and the way the stars on this team work so hard and demand the same of everyone around them, I have faith they'll be able to make Stalberg a respectable defensive presence.

And I have little doubt that he's going to be an impact player offensively. Will he be a stud? Maybe if he ends up paired with the right guys. But even without that, I think he'll be a guy who provides second level production and has to be respected as a threat to score or create chances.


W Jack Skille, 23 years old, 4th season, $600k for 1 year, #20

Skille was a high 1st round pick the year after Kane but has bounced between the NHL and AHL (mostly in the AHL) the last few years, unable to break through to command a regular role, despite a few opportunities afforded to him. His speed is his biggest asset, but supposedly he can score and isn't a small guy by any stretch, so a spot on the top line is within his potential.

Personally I think that being buried in the AHL last year was the best thing that could have happened to this kid longterm. I think it's evident that it made him hungry and even desperate. Whereas before Skille didn't seem talented enough to skate Top 6 nor bring the right assets to the table to be a Bottom 6 wing, now I think he's going to end up a heck of a Bottom 6 player.

While it's been frustrating to watch him unable to bury the many chances he's gotten, you have to give Skille the credit of working hard and using his speed and feel for the game to get some things going in the offensive zone. I loved him paired with Stalberg and hope when everyone's back healthy that the two of them are alongside Bolland on the third.

Again, is Skille a great defensive player? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he can't be. To me he's got two of the most important skills - tenacity and speed. Throw in that he's respectably physical and has a good head for the game, and to me Skille just needs time and the clear assignment of turning himself into a plus checking line player to do just that.

Along with Stalberg, I really think there's some high-end potential here. Maybe not superstar high end, but real plus role player type of ceiling. Buff, Versteeg, Ladd - those guys were at that level and the Hawks could never have dreamed of winning without them. I believe Stalberg and Skille can reach those same heights, but sorry to be redundant, but JQ just needs to commit to it.

That will be the big challenge for the coaching staff this year. Not just the Xs and Os and motivation, which I think they're plenty good at. But in forcing themselves to put these young guys into positions that they might not be capable of. Having the faith in their abilities and the fact that in time, these guys will rise to the challenge. And when they do, you'll be in a far better place to win the Cup.

In fact, I'll even say that I don't think the Hawks can win the Cup unless the coaching staff makes that commitment. I've seen it happen on many a team, even played on one - the coaches refused to take the risk to develop their role players and depth, over-relied on their proven commodities, and eventually ran into a challenge that was too great for just the core stars to carry the team through.

I sure as heck hope that isn't what the Hawks are getting themselves into this year. I'm gonna continue to harp on it - JQ needs to give these guys some confidence, stability, and clear direction. If he fails to do that, I'm not gonna blame the newcomers, especially the youngsters, for not stepping up. I'm gonna put it on JQ. Especially because of what I've seen, I think the potential is there. It just needs to be properly cultivated.