I started this chain with an intro and write-up on the Goalies last week (here), went on to blueliners a few days ago (here), and am concluding it with my take on the forwards. First, a brief intro taken from that last post to get you up to speed on my purpose here:
...all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.
After 14 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.
Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.
Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.
Last Week - Goalies. A few days ago - Blueliners. Today - Forwards.
W Bryan Bickell, 24 years old, 4th season, $542k for 3 years, #29
We saw a bit of Bickell last season, enough to be encouraged about his potential to step into a Top 6 role this season, especially after he was very respectable in his few games of playoff exposure. Bickell had 23 regular season and three post-season games under his belt over the past three years, so he's not a perfect stranger to the NHL game. Still, this would be his first chance at regular minutes and a significant role.
So far the results have been up-and-down, as you'd expect. As is JQ's way, Bickell has been shuffled all over the lineup, seeing his minutes fluctuate from 10 to 19 on any given night. But he has been given some top line time and at first looked productive enough, notching 4 points in the first 5 games. Though that also included a -2 and three Hawk losses, so Coach Q has since moved him around.
But after that hot start, Bickell stopped making much of an impact - not just on the score sheet, but in bringing much physicality, energy, or anything of note to the game. He wasn't playing terrible, just not showing that hunger to impact the game that you'd like to see out of new guys trying to make their mark.
The result was a pair of healthy scratches and a role that now is limited to only 10 minutes, despite the loss of Hossa and Bolland. Somehow he only got 10 minutes in Wednesday's game against NJ, when JQ essentially ran w/ three lines, thanks to using Hendry and Scott as his 4th line wingers.
The good news for Bickell is that after putting up a shot or less in six of seven games, he's got two shots on goal each of the past three games, in only that 10 minutes of ice time. He hasn't been negative since the third game of the season and even has a couple of positive nights (not bad given four losses in the last five games he skated).
What do I make of Bickell? I think he can definitely be a nice complimentary top line player, but I feel that Q needs to commit more to developing his players. With the forwards it's less a matter of giving ice time to the youngsters as it is in putting them in a set role with the same pair of linemates and allowing them to build a rapport, some comfort, and ultimately, real confidence.
There is no question in my mind that one of the reasons the Hawks developed so many great role players that we were so sorry to see go this off-season is because they were around when the Hawks were still an un-established team and thus got long stretches of good opportunities to develop a niche for themselves.
I dig JQ wanting to win every night out, but he's also got to see that he'll be earning more points down the road if he shows some restraint and some patience by setting some lines that allow guys like Bickell to find out what kind of player they can be most productive as in the NHL. Bickell has size and a nice touch and certainly doesn't mind doing the dirty work. But can he hold his defensively? Does he have a nose for the goal or a propensity to take advantage of rare chances that come up? Is he a forechecker, a guy who can camp out in front of the net, someone who can skate all over or provide energy?
There are so many different attributes and approaches that a player can take to make himself into any number of different productive roles necessary on a championship team. Versteeg, Ladd, Eager, Burish, Buff, Madden, and Frasier all served very different purposes on the team last year, all based on what they brought to the table and the responsibilities they were allowed to grow into over time.
So JQ needs to appreciate that not only must he give guys like Bickell a chance to develop and show how good they are, but he needs to give them a chance to develop and show in what ways they can be contribute.
For now, I'm not sure where Bickell fits. But I do have faith he fits somewhere. Ideally I'd like him to be a guy capable of playing on the Top 6 if called upon and also a strong contributor to our power play unit. But given how effective both Brouwer and Kopecky have been on the top lines, it's also important that Bickell carve out a nice for himself as a guy capable of filling a Bottom 6 role. That means being a tough enough defender to serve on the checking unit or showcasing tremendous spark and tenacity to drive the energy line - neither of which I've really seen out of this kid yet.
Still, the skills seem to be there, a decent head for the game seems to be there, and a decent desire to make a mark seems to be there. So I'd definitely like to see JQ slot Bickell into one set role and just let him grow into it. I think we'll end up with a nice support piece that way.
W Fernando Pisani, 33 years old, 8th season, $500k for 1 years, #15
I like the idea of Pisani, and not just cause he's got a cool name. It's more that a veteran who's remained in the NHL due to his checking and PK skills is a valuable piece to a title-contending team, especially one that just got rid of all of its role players.
But I've got one issues with Pisani - I don't like him on the 3rd line, as he's clearly extremely limited offensively and also is taking valuable ice time from younger, more dynamic and capable player. I think he should be down on the 4th line, ensuring it's capable defensively to get a shift here or there against a non-4th line and not hurt the Hawks, and saving his legs for the PK.
I can't say I've seen enough of Pisani to know if he really is all that on the PK (much like with blueliners, it takes some time to fairly judge a skater's defensive abilities), but I'm gonna have a bit of faith in the Hawks front office and JQ until I see for myself otherwise (or hear enough rumblings). Given that he's the #2 forward in terms of PK minutes and that our PK unit has been a disappointment so far (only 83%, below average in the NHL after being one of the best going last year), I'm certainly not impressed.
But for $500k, I think the Hawks are smart to have picked this guy up and I like that JQ is trying to see if he's got a nice veteran defensive forward. I just think the Hawks would be better off with him getting the limited 4th line minutes instead of extended third line ones. Again, this is a case where JQ can't fall in love with the reliable vet - he's got to show a lil faith in his youngsters and know that Pisani will still be there to lean on down the road, when things really matter.
C Jake Dowell, 25 years old, 4th season, $525k for 1 year, #28
For a savings of $175k, the Hawks went from a known commodity in Fraser to an unknown in Dowell at their 4th line center. While I didn't love Fraser - he should have been better in the face-off dot - I also didn't mind him, as he worked hard, flashed just enough offense, and seemed a respectable physical and defensive presence as a 4th line pivot.
However, JQ didn't seem sold, sending him to the press box in each of the last two playoff runs, so giving up on Fraser to open up a shot for another prospect probably was the right call. Now the question is whether Dowell is the right guy to take advantage of the position that's opened up.
One thing I don't like right off the bat is Dowell's mediocre face-off percentage, down at a subpar 46%. However, he's only lost 8 more draws than he's taken and his percentage has been climbing steadily up of late, so maybe Dowell just needed some time to get comfortable. Much like with Fraser, it bothers me when a grindy 4th line center isn't bringing plus face-off skills to the table. Hopefully Dowell will get there.
Ditto for the PK unit, where Dowell is pulling only a minute a game. Sure, some of that is because the Hawks have a nice group of vets who can get the job done. But as a young 4th line center, I'd like to see Dowell take the pressure off of Toews and Sharp by playing well enough to assume twice as much PK time.
Other than that, I'm not sure what else to make of Dowell. He's skated with some decently skilled forwards - first Stalberg and Skille, then up as a 3rd liner with Bolland out. But I don't know if he's got upside beyond a 4th liner. I don't know if he's got either the scoring/playmaking touch or defensive shutdown ability to get regular center minutes.
Ideally, Dowell would be a 4th line plus center, meaning he brings more to the table than most 4th line centers and doesn't kill you if he has to skate a period or a few games as a 3rd liner. Because he's young, because the organization seems to like him, and because he's got a lot of talent around him, I'm gonna have some faith that Dowell might just become that before the year is out.
W Viktor Stalberg, 24 years old, 2nd season, $850k for 1 year, #25
Stalberg came over as the key piece in the Versteeg deal, bringing with a perceived ability to score thanks to an impressive combination of speed and size. The 9 goals he scored in 40 games of limited play last year suggested that the young Swede could thrive if given a chance next to some real gamers like the Hawks had.
So far he seems to be the newcomer with the most upside, tho as with so many other such talented youngsters, there are questions about his commitment. Not that he's been a major slacker, just that he hasn't shown an every shift, up-and-down the ice tenacity that you hope for out of someone trying to earn a major role.
Still, the guy can definitely play, showing a nice touch, great wheels, good size, and decent skills. With Hossa going down, he's getting some top line minutes and doing solidly with em. But I wonder if he's better suited as the offensive component of the third line? Mainly because the top two lines aren't hurting for skill - what they need is a hard worker who can support the studs.
However, on the third line, the Hawks were well-served last season with some skaters who could both check the other team's top line while also providing some scoring punch themselves. The question is can you get Stalberg to work hard enough to hold his own in the Hawks end so that he can provide that offensive spark?
Again, to me the answer lies in JQ just committing to Stalberg in that role. It's tougher now with Bolland and Hossa out, but when those guys return, I'd like to see Stalberg squarely installed on the third line to grow into the role. Given the coaching staff's track record and the way the stars on this team work so hard and demand the same of everyone around them, I have faith they'll be able to make Stalberg a respectable defensive presence.
And I have little doubt that he's going to be an impact player offensively. Will he be a stud? Maybe if he ends up paired with the right guys. But even without that, I think he'll be a guy who provides second level production and has to be respected as a threat to score or create chances.
W Jack Skille, 23 years old, 4th season, $600k for 1 year, #20
Skille was a high 1st round pick the year after Kane but has bounced between the NHL and AHL (mostly in the AHL) the last few years, unable to break through to command a regular role, despite a few opportunities afforded to him. His speed is his biggest asset, but supposedly he can score and isn't a small guy by any stretch, so a spot on the top line is within his potential.
Personally I think that being buried in the AHL last year was the best thing that could have happened to this kid longterm. I think it's evident that it made him hungry and even desperate. Whereas before Skille didn't seem talented enough to skate Top 6 nor bring the right assets to the table to be a Bottom 6 wing, now I think he's going to end up a heck of a Bottom 6 player.
While it's been frustrating to watch him unable to bury the many chances he's gotten, you have to give Skille the credit of working hard and using his speed and feel for the game to get some things going in the offensive zone. I loved him paired with Stalberg and hope when everyone's back healthy that the two of them are alongside Bolland on the third.
Again, is Skille a great defensive player? Probably not, but that doesn't mean he can't be. To me he's got two of the most important skills - tenacity and speed. Throw in that he's respectably physical and has a good head for the game, and to me Skille just needs time and the clear assignment of turning himself into a plus checking line player to do just that.
Along with Stalberg, I really think there's some high-end potential here. Maybe not superstar high end, but real plus role player type of ceiling. Buff, Versteeg, Ladd - those guys were at that level and the Hawks could never have dreamed of winning without them. I believe Stalberg and Skille can reach those same heights, but sorry to be redundant, but JQ just needs to commit to it.
That will be the big challenge for the coaching staff this year. Not just the Xs and Os and motivation, which I think they're plenty good at. But in forcing themselves to put these young guys into positions that they might not be capable of. Having the faith in their abilities and the fact that in time, these guys will rise to the challenge. And when they do, you'll be in a far better place to win the Cup.
In fact, I'll even say that I don't think the Hawks can win the Cup unless the coaching staff makes that commitment. I've seen it happen on many a team, even played on one - the coaches refused to take the risk to develop their role players and depth, over-relied on their proven commodities, and eventually ran into a challenge that was too great for just the core stars to carry the team through.
I sure as heck hope that isn't what the Hawks are getting themselves into this year. I'm gonna continue to harp on it - JQ needs to give these guys some confidence, stability, and clear direction. If he fails to do that, I'm not gonna blame the newcomers, especially the youngsters, for not stepping up. I'm gonna put it on JQ. Especially because of what I've seen, I think the potential is there. It just needs to be properly cultivated.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
And You Are...? (part II)
I started this chain with an intro and write-up on the Goalies last week (here) and am picking it back up today with the blueliners. First, a brief intro taken from that last post to get you up to speed on my purpose here:
...all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.
After 14 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.
Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.
Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.
Last Week - Goalies. Today - Blueliners. Day 3 - Forwards.
D Nick Boynton, 31 years old, 10th season, $500k for 1 year, #24
Boynton was an afterthought acquisition last season to even the most diehard of Hawks fans, a guy picked up just before the trade deadline as apparent organizational depth. But when Kim Johnsson died and Jordan Hendry didn't cut it for JQ, Boynton found himself skating in the final few games of the post-season, earning himself the most unlikely of etchings on the Stanley cup.
With Sopel gone and the budget tight, Boynton was thrust into that same grindy 5th blueliner role. He'll be asked to skate on the PK, block shots with reckless abandon, and step up to handle a bit more ice time whenever the Top 4 need it.
Unfortunately, that time just occurred thanks to Campbell's injury (which he fortunately has returned from). That forced Keith to play 30 minutes and Seabrook 26 minutes a night, and for a while, that meant Boynton putting was out there for over 22 a game. On a lot of nights, that was more than the Hammer (getting around 18 himself).
My thought so far - Boynton is definitely a Sopel clone, in that he's mistake-prone, a bit cloddy, definitely physical, and sometimes a bit retarded. But like Sopel, I can see Boynton showing some real some veteran value and if asked to be strictly a 15 minute, 3rd pairing, PK specialist type, end up being a solid piece to a championship puzzle.
But that is far from assured and the recent lowering in ice time and the fact that he was a healthy scratch at the Rangers suggest that JQ isn't sold on his late-season Sopel-like potential. Or maybe JQ is just trying to see what he's got in some of the other newbie blueliners (young and old) or just keeping all of his guys fresh and not allowing anyone to be scratched for too long.
Whatever the case may be, I can't say I'm a huge Boynton fan, but I'm trying to learn the lesson of Sopel last year, where I hated the guy all regular season long, only to see him become a truly invaluable asset to the blueline for the Cup run. Basically, I'm withholding judgment, as even veterans need some time to get used to the system, figure out their role, and then start to thrive in.
So like Sopel, hopefully JQ can keep Boynton in his comfort zone - killing penalties, blocking shots, taking 5th or even 6th blueliner minutes - and allow him to become an asset. Hopefully that early love affair, as represented by his huge ice time, was not a choice of JQ's and instead the coach gets this guys very limited potential.
But there is potential to Boynton being an asset this year - not only is the bottom of the defense a bit suspect, but it's a fact of every team that you can never have enough capable blueliners. Injuries happen and unlike with wings, it's hard to hide guys who can't really cut it on the NHL level. So even if Boynton is just a 7th defenseman, if he can get the job done, he'll be someone the Hawks need again before all is said and done.
D Nick Leddy, 19 years old, rookie, $1.117M per for 3 years, #8
Leddy has already been shuffled back to the minors after JQ initially bought in to the idea of having another puck-moving blueliner out there developing his NHL game, but ultimately decided he just wasn't comfortable enough with the kid to keep him around.
I don't know what to think about this - I guess I'd prefer to see Leddy brought along slowly, given time in the AHL to develop his game to the pro level while also making huge strides forward in size and strength (as 19-year olds will do).
On the other hand, the Hawks definitely could use another player who can skate the puck from the defensive end and with some patience and commitment, Leddy might have blossomed into a very valuable 6th blueliner with offensive skills. Especially because it's not like the Hawks have a lot of other impressive options right now (nor, with the cap as it is, any real prospect of changing that fact).
But that still might happen - if Leddy is given a half season or so to take some steps forward, maybe like Hammer did two years ago, Leddy can rejoin the team down the stretch and step right into a crucial role. For HJ that meant riding shotgun with Campbell on the #2 pairing, a pretty huge responsibility. But the bar would be much lower for Leddy, who'd just have to fill 3rd pairing minutes and maybe even some second unit PP time.
It's hard to really judge a blueliner w/o a bunch of exposure to him, so I'm gonna reserve judgment on this kid. I do think we all should be encouraged by the fact that he played well enough to even warrant a shot and that he wasn't obviously terrible. With some development time and then the right moves to bring him along slowly, Leddy could definitely be the next generation of puck-moving blueliner the Hawks are always looking for.
One thing to definitely keep in mind for future years - the Hawks really won't get much for cap flexibility until they can move Campbell. Now that may never happen, but it's the only option available to the team that is at least palatable. Or would be IF a guy like Leddy would step up into that role.
However, that's not an easy role to fill - in fact, that lack of capable puck-moving defensemen is a big reason Campbell got so much money to begin with and why he continues to be an invaluable part of this team (as we continue to be reminded every time he misses much time). So keep an eye on Leddy - he may just be developing into a hugely important asset.
D Jassen Cullimore, 37 years old, 14th season, $500k for 1 year, #5
I'm gonna forgive the spelling of his name (it's just pronounced Jason, so why not spell it in the universally accepted way?!? Why must parents sentence their child to a lifetime of annoyingly having to correct pronunciation or spelling... but I digress) and instead focus on the fact that last year, at the age of 36, this guy was willing to play a whole season in the AHL with no promise of ever getting back. And then when he was looking at the same thing all over again as a 37-year old, Cullimore again accepted it and kept on plugging along for the Hawks minor league affiliate.
And now he's finally getting the chance he wanted, to return to the NHL and contribute. The fact that it's contributing on a Stanley Cup contender is some sweet ass icing, I'm sure.
For a long time Cullimore was a pretty productive grindy defenseman for the Lightning, even winning a Cup with them right before the lockout. On the other side, the Hawks signed him for some decent change to help bolster their feeble blueline... but as you probably don't remember, he didn't live up to expectations. After two poor years he moved on to Florida where had a bit of a rebirth in the 07-08 year, only to struggle again in 08-09 before finding himself in the minors for all of last season.
I kinda figured Cullimore was just gonna hang around as a healthy scratch until Campbell got healthy, but after JQ gave up on Leddy (understandable) and Hendry (more of a head-scratcher), Cullimore has become a regular on the blueline. In fact, in Campbell's first game back, Boynton was the healthy scratch - not Cullimore.
Again, it's not always easy to judge a defenseman after just a few games, but I haven't noticed him, which like offensive lineman, is a good thing, and the reports I've been reading seem to suggest he's doing alright for himself. Cullimore is ideally not gonna skate more than 15, maybe 17 minutes, grab a small bit of PK time if really necessary.
But if he can be just serviceable next to Boynton or Hendry as a veteran presence, we might have a quietly decent, if limited, third pairing to take some of the pressure off the top 4, at least in the regular season, while also having some depth for the dings and dents that will most certainly come up this year.
Especially with the way Keith and Seabrook log time and the way both of them wore down a bit before the stretch run, the Hawks would do well to have a solid 7 NHL-caliber defensemen they could lean on to keep minutes at more reasonable levels for the Top 4.
Finally, I'll go ahead and say right now that Cullimore, mainly for grinding it out in the AHL at such an advanced age, but also because he's come up and quietly taken care of business, is fast become an irrational favorite of mine. So expect me to be openly celebrating any success he has and giving him an undue amount of patience with his failings.
D Jordan Hendry, 26 years old, 3rd season, $600k for 1 year, #6
Hendry is hardly a newcomer, having played in 43 games last year and a bunch of the post-season. In fact, he has his name on the Cup, something that requires a respectably high level of participation on a Cup-winning team. Still, last season he wasn't a regular in the sense of getting out every night at one position, instead juggling between the 4th line, the 3rd D pairing, and being a healthy scratch. So I figured I'd throw him into the mix as someone worth knowing a bit more about.
This year it looked like he'd have a nightly spot on the blueline all but wrapped up, especially once Campbell went down. Instead Hendry has seen just about everyone get their shot before he has - Leddy, Scott, and Cullimore all skating in games that Hendry watched from the press box.
For whatever reason, JQ just hasn't ever shown much faith in Hendry. And he's done all he could to avoid having to give the kid regular blueline minutes. Moving Buff back, going to Boynton in the Stanley Cup Finals, or just making sure Hendry took as few shifts as possible, JQ has found a way to avoid relying on him for a while now.
While I can definitely see some of the reason - Hendry often looks unsure of himself leading to costly or just annoying mistakes - I'm also of the belief that the kid needs more of a shot than he's gotten. To me that lack of confidence and comfort has a chance to be solved just by getting regular ice time. Especially when Campbell was out, why not give Hendry a start every night next to the same blueliner?
Instead JQ jerked him around, scratching him a lot and limiting his minutes. Through the first 10 games, Hendry had played only 4 times, once for a mere 5 minutes. Look, Hendry doesn't have a ton of upside, that's clear. But he can definitely skate well, handle the puck solidly, and certainly fits with the high-flying nature of this team.
From what I've seen of him - and I've watched him closely in the hopes of seeming he take the next step - he really just needs more experience and confidence. I'm firmly of the belief that if you give Hendry a guaranteed starting spot for the next 20 games aside the same reliable veteran (I'd prefer Cullimore to Boynton, as he seems a smarter, more steady player), that at the end of that stretch, you'd have a nice young 3rd pairing blueline asset on your hands.
And who knows, maybe JQ finally is starting to think the same thing after watching a number of other blueliners look a bit iffy out there so far this year. For the last four games, Hendry has played every one and gotten a steady 12-13 minutes. Hopefully that remains the case for the next couple of months, because his wheels alone make Hendry worth really committing to.
Because as much as Cullimore and Boynton use veteran savvy, physicality, and grit to more or less hold their own, they are limited by the fact that they just aren't very athletic on a team of guys who can just fly around the ice. Sopel was about as good in that role as anyone could expect and he still always looked like a square peg in a round hole on this team. It took a long while for Sopel to truly rise to the level of an asset and it's far from certain that either Boynton or Cullimore will be capable enough in those intangible areas to do so as well.
Plus, as I discussed with Cullimore, a developed Hendry would provide you with always needed blueline depth. Boynton and Cullimore are older, Keith and Seabrook log a ton of minutes, and Campbell's been injured seriously twice in the last six months. You know what you're going to get, more or less, out of Scott, Boynton, and Cullimore. Sure they could use some more ice time to get comfortable in the system, but they don't need to go out there everyday.
However, with Hendry, he definitely does need to be out there every day, again because it's all about confidence and comfort with this kid. Instill those things in him and you should have an NHL-capable blueliner that brings rare athleticism to the 3rd pairing. And if he doesn't take that step forward - well, now you know for sure what you've got in Hendry and can move on.
D John Scott, 28 years old, 3rd season, $512k for 2 years, #32
Only 10 Hawks skaters played in the first 10 games... somehow this guy was one of them. Really. I can't say I've personally noticed him be all that terrible, but you don't have to look very hard to understand it's been the case. First off, nearly every Hawks commentator, even those who are knee deep with the team and thus rarely very critical, have questioned the regular role this guy has on this team. Second, the numbers speak for themselves - he's playing barely 8 minutes a night (despite being part of a very thin and inconsistent blue line) and regularly sitting for long stretches when the games get tight.
Scott's a huge man (6-8, 255) and actively seeks out fights and hits to help keep the opponent honest. So far he's only had one negative night and that was offset by a +2 in the only game he got significant amounts of ice time (nearly 17 minutes in a victory in Buffalo). So there are some obvious justifications for keeping him around.
However, on two separate occasions Scott's dressed and then logged only two and a half minutes of ice time - essentially forcing the team to skate a man short. Everybody complains about how slow and awkward Scott is, while also pointing out that he really hasn't been much of a physical force, neither getting many guys to fight him nor delivering big hits when he's out there.
So why has he dressed for so many games? Some of it has been a misguided sense that the Hawks need the protection. Misguided both in that Scott hasn't actually provided any protection (teams have been just as physical as ever) nor is he really good enough to get on the ice enough to effectively police anything.
Most importantly, his continued place in the nightly lineup has been misguided because, much as I discussed with Hendry above, the Hawks need to develop their depth, both on the blue line and at wing (where Scott has skated a few games). Two universal truths for any Cup Champion are that you can never have enough capable NHL defenseman and that you need strong role players supporting your stars. This is especially the case for a team coming off a very long season that demanded incredible amounts of ice time from its top skaters, is looking to do the very same thing this year, and has minimal cap room to get help from the outside.
Sure, it's nice to have a policeman out there, but if Scott can't justify the minutes with his play, it's pointless to dress him and pretend he's having any effect on the game. It seems clear Scott doesn't have the ability nor potential to be anything but a goon, so he should be a healthy scratch until the demand for some enforcement is clear and undeniable.
Instead, his defensive minutes should be taken for now by Hendry, Boynton, and Cullimore, with Leddy getting time if the need arises and he's made the necessary steps forward as a pro. And Scott most definitely should NEVER dress as a wing in place of Skille or Stalberg or really any of the Hawks forwards. Those guys need every bit of ice time they can get and especially now that Hossa and Bolland are out, the Hawks need every bit of production they can provide. Pissing that away for a one-dimensional brute in 12 of 14 games has been one of the biggest mistakes JQ has made this year.
In general, I'd give the new blueliners an incomplete - pretty much what I would have expected. Sure it'd have been nice for someone to surprise and make an instant impact, but the reality is that most blueliners need time to both get comfortable and to really show what they're capable of. It's been nice that Cullimore has looked decent and that Boynton has seemingly justified a lot of minutes for stretches. It's nice that Hendry has finally gotten a steady dose of starts to string together. It was even nice to get Leddy a taste of NHL action and to have Scott exposed as the total one-dimensional goon he is.
But the reality is that there are 68 more games on the schedule and it will take maybe another 40 or 50 before I really feel like I'll have a grasp on what the Hawks feature after their very impressive Top 4. Do keep an eye out, because hockey is most definitely about quality of depth as much as it is about the headliners, so developing two or three capable NHL-level defenseman will be as crucial to a Cup defense as anything else.
...all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.
After 14 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.
Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.
Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.
Last Week - Goalies. Today - Blueliners. Day 3 - Forwards.
D Nick Boynton, 31 years old, 10th season, $500k for 1 year, #24
Boynton was an afterthought acquisition last season to even the most diehard of Hawks fans, a guy picked up just before the trade deadline as apparent organizational depth. But when Kim Johnsson died and Jordan Hendry didn't cut it for JQ, Boynton found himself skating in the final few games of the post-season, earning himself the most unlikely of etchings on the Stanley cup.
With Sopel gone and the budget tight, Boynton was thrust into that same grindy 5th blueliner role. He'll be asked to skate on the PK, block shots with reckless abandon, and step up to handle a bit more ice time whenever the Top 4 need it.
Unfortunately, that time just occurred thanks to Campbell's injury (which he fortunately has returned from). That forced Keith to play 30 minutes and Seabrook 26 minutes a night, and for a while, that meant Boynton putting was out there for over 22 a game. On a lot of nights, that was more than the Hammer (getting around 18 himself).
My thought so far - Boynton is definitely a Sopel clone, in that he's mistake-prone, a bit cloddy, definitely physical, and sometimes a bit retarded. But like Sopel, I can see Boynton showing some real some veteran value and if asked to be strictly a 15 minute, 3rd pairing, PK specialist type, end up being a solid piece to a championship puzzle.
But that is far from assured and the recent lowering in ice time and the fact that he was a healthy scratch at the Rangers suggest that JQ isn't sold on his late-season Sopel-like potential. Or maybe JQ is just trying to see what he's got in some of the other newbie blueliners (young and old) or just keeping all of his guys fresh and not allowing anyone to be scratched for too long.
Whatever the case may be, I can't say I'm a huge Boynton fan, but I'm trying to learn the lesson of Sopel last year, where I hated the guy all regular season long, only to see him become a truly invaluable asset to the blueline for the Cup run. Basically, I'm withholding judgment, as even veterans need some time to get used to the system, figure out their role, and then start to thrive in.
So like Sopel, hopefully JQ can keep Boynton in his comfort zone - killing penalties, blocking shots, taking 5th or even 6th blueliner minutes - and allow him to become an asset. Hopefully that early love affair, as represented by his huge ice time, was not a choice of JQ's and instead the coach gets this guys very limited potential.
But there is potential to Boynton being an asset this year - not only is the bottom of the defense a bit suspect, but it's a fact of every team that you can never have enough capable blueliners. Injuries happen and unlike with wings, it's hard to hide guys who can't really cut it on the NHL level. So even if Boynton is just a 7th defenseman, if he can get the job done, he'll be someone the Hawks need again before all is said and done.
D Nick Leddy, 19 years old, rookie, $1.117M per for 3 years, #8
Leddy has already been shuffled back to the minors after JQ initially bought in to the idea of having another puck-moving blueliner out there developing his NHL game, but ultimately decided he just wasn't comfortable enough with the kid to keep him around.
I don't know what to think about this - I guess I'd prefer to see Leddy brought along slowly, given time in the AHL to develop his game to the pro level while also making huge strides forward in size and strength (as 19-year olds will do).
On the other hand, the Hawks definitely could use another player who can skate the puck from the defensive end and with some patience and commitment, Leddy might have blossomed into a very valuable 6th blueliner with offensive skills. Especially because it's not like the Hawks have a lot of other impressive options right now (nor, with the cap as it is, any real prospect of changing that fact).
But that still might happen - if Leddy is given a half season or so to take some steps forward, maybe like Hammer did two years ago, Leddy can rejoin the team down the stretch and step right into a crucial role. For HJ that meant riding shotgun with Campbell on the #2 pairing, a pretty huge responsibility. But the bar would be much lower for Leddy, who'd just have to fill 3rd pairing minutes and maybe even some second unit PP time.
It's hard to really judge a blueliner w/o a bunch of exposure to him, so I'm gonna reserve judgment on this kid. I do think we all should be encouraged by the fact that he played well enough to even warrant a shot and that he wasn't obviously terrible. With some development time and then the right moves to bring him along slowly, Leddy could definitely be the next generation of puck-moving blueliner the Hawks are always looking for.
One thing to definitely keep in mind for future years - the Hawks really won't get much for cap flexibility until they can move Campbell. Now that may never happen, but it's the only option available to the team that is at least palatable. Or would be IF a guy like Leddy would step up into that role.
However, that's not an easy role to fill - in fact, that lack of capable puck-moving defensemen is a big reason Campbell got so much money to begin with and why he continues to be an invaluable part of this team (as we continue to be reminded every time he misses much time). So keep an eye on Leddy - he may just be developing into a hugely important asset.
D Jassen Cullimore, 37 years old, 14th season, $500k for 1 year, #5
I'm gonna forgive the spelling of his name (it's just pronounced Jason, so why not spell it in the universally accepted way?!? Why must parents sentence their child to a lifetime of annoyingly having to correct pronunciation or spelling... but I digress) and instead focus on the fact that last year, at the age of 36, this guy was willing to play a whole season in the AHL with no promise of ever getting back. And then when he was looking at the same thing all over again as a 37-year old, Cullimore again accepted it and kept on plugging along for the Hawks minor league affiliate.
And now he's finally getting the chance he wanted, to return to the NHL and contribute. The fact that it's contributing on a Stanley Cup contender is some sweet ass icing, I'm sure.
For a long time Cullimore was a pretty productive grindy defenseman for the Lightning, even winning a Cup with them right before the lockout. On the other side, the Hawks signed him for some decent change to help bolster their feeble blueline... but as you probably don't remember, he didn't live up to expectations. After two poor years he moved on to Florida where had a bit of a rebirth in the 07-08 year, only to struggle again in 08-09 before finding himself in the minors for all of last season.
I kinda figured Cullimore was just gonna hang around as a healthy scratch until Campbell got healthy, but after JQ gave up on Leddy (understandable) and Hendry (more of a head-scratcher), Cullimore has become a regular on the blueline. In fact, in Campbell's first game back, Boynton was the healthy scratch - not Cullimore.
Again, it's not always easy to judge a defenseman after just a few games, but I haven't noticed him, which like offensive lineman, is a good thing, and the reports I've been reading seem to suggest he's doing alright for himself. Cullimore is ideally not gonna skate more than 15, maybe 17 minutes, grab a small bit of PK time if really necessary.
But if he can be just serviceable next to Boynton or Hendry as a veteran presence, we might have a quietly decent, if limited, third pairing to take some of the pressure off the top 4, at least in the regular season, while also having some depth for the dings and dents that will most certainly come up this year.
Especially with the way Keith and Seabrook log time and the way both of them wore down a bit before the stretch run, the Hawks would do well to have a solid 7 NHL-caliber defensemen they could lean on to keep minutes at more reasonable levels for the Top 4.
Finally, I'll go ahead and say right now that Cullimore, mainly for grinding it out in the AHL at such an advanced age, but also because he's come up and quietly taken care of business, is fast become an irrational favorite of mine. So expect me to be openly celebrating any success he has and giving him an undue amount of patience with his failings.
D Jordan Hendry, 26 years old, 3rd season, $600k for 1 year, #6
Hendry is hardly a newcomer, having played in 43 games last year and a bunch of the post-season. In fact, he has his name on the Cup, something that requires a respectably high level of participation on a Cup-winning team. Still, last season he wasn't a regular in the sense of getting out every night at one position, instead juggling between the 4th line, the 3rd D pairing, and being a healthy scratch. So I figured I'd throw him into the mix as someone worth knowing a bit more about.
This year it looked like he'd have a nightly spot on the blueline all but wrapped up, especially once Campbell went down. Instead Hendry has seen just about everyone get their shot before he has - Leddy, Scott, and Cullimore all skating in games that Hendry watched from the press box.
For whatever reason, JQ just hasn't ever shown much faith in Hendry. And he's done all he could to avoid having to give the kid regular blueline minutes. Moving Buff back, going to Boynton in the Stanley Cup Finals, or just making sure Hendry took as few shifts as possible, JQ has found a way to avoid relying on him for a while now.
While I can definitely see some of the reason - Hendry often looks unsure of himself leading to costly or just annoying mistakes - I'm also of the belief that the kid needs more of a shot than he's gotten. To me that lack of confidence and comfort has a chance to be solved just by getting regular ice time. Especially when Campbell was out, why not give Hendry a start every night next to the same blueliner?
Instead JQ jerked him around, scratching him a lot and limiting his minutes. Through the first 10 games, Hendry had played only 4 times, once for a mere 5 minutes. Look, Hendry doesn't have a ton of upside, that's clear. But he can definitely skate well, handle the puck solidly, and certainly fits with the high-flying nature of this team.
From what I've seen of him - and I've watched him closely in the hopes of seeming he take the next step - he really just needs more experience and confidence. I'm firmly of the belief that if you give Hendry a guaranteed starting spot for the next 20 games aside the same reliable veteran (I'd prefer Cullimore to Boynton, as he seems a smarter, more steady player), that at the end of that stretch, you'd have a nice young 3rd pairing blueline asset on your hands.
And who knows, maybe JQ finally is starting to think the same thing after watching a number of other blueliners look a bit iffy out there so far this year. For the last four games, Hendry has played every one and gotten a steady 12-13 minutes. Hopefully that remains the case for the next couple of months, because his wheels alone make Hendry worth really committing to.
Because as much as Cullimore and Boynton use veteran savvy, physicality, and grit to more or less hold their own, they are limited by the fact that they just aren't very athletic on a team of guys who can just fly around the ice. Sopel was about as good in that role as anyone could expect and he still always looked like a square peg in a round hole on this team. It took a long while for Sopel to truly rise to the level of an asset and it's far from certain that either Boynton or Cullimore will be capable enough in those intangible areas to do so as well.
Plus, as I discussed with Cullimore, a developed Hendry would provide you with always needed blueline depth. Boynton and Cullimore are older, Keith and Seabrook log a ton of minutes, and Campbell's been injured seriously twice in the last six months. You know what you're going to get, more or less, out of Scott, Boynton, and Cullimore. Sure they could use some more ice time to get comfortable in the system, but they don't need to go out there everyday.
However, with Hendry, he definitely does need to be out there every day, again because it's all about confidence and comfort with this kid. Instill those things in him and you should have an NHL-capable blueliner that brings rare athleticism to the 3rd pairing. And if he doesn't take that step forward - well, now you know for sure what you've got in Hendry and can move on.
D John Scott, 28 years old, 3rd season, $512k for 2 years, #32
Only 10 Hawks skaters played in the first 10 games... somehow this guy was one of them. Really. I can't say I've personally noticed him be all that terrible, but you don't have to look very hard to understand it's been the case. First off, nearly every Hawks commentator, even those who are knee deep with the team and thus rarely very critical, have questioned the regular role this guy has on this team. Second, the numbers speak for themselves - he's playing barely 8 minutes a night (despite being part of a very thin and inconsistent blue line) and regularly sitting for long stretches when the games get tight.
Scott's a huge man (6-8, 255) and actively seeks out fights and hits to help keep the opponent honest. So far he's only had one negative night and that was offset by a +2 in the only game he got significant amounts of ice time (nearly 17 minutes in a victory in Buffalo). So there are some obvious justifications for keeping him around.
However, on two separate occasions Scott's dressed and then logged only two and a half minutes of ice time - essentially forcing the team to skate a man short. Everybody complains about how slow and awkward Scott is, while also pointing out that he really hasn't been much of a physical force, neither getting many guys to fight him nor delivering big hits when he's out there.
So why has he dressed for so many games? Some of it has been a misguided sense that the Hawks need the protection. Misguided both in that Scott hasn't actually provided any protection (teams have been just as physical as ever) nor is he really good enough to get on the ice enough to effectively police anything.
Most importantly, his continued place in the nightly lineup has been misguided because, much as I discussed with Hendry above, the Hawks need to develop their depth, both on the blue line and at wing (where Scott has skated a few games). Two universal truths for any Cup Champion are that you can never have enough capable NHL defenseman and that you need strong role players supporting your stars. This is especially the case for a team coming off a very long season that demanded incredible amounts of ice time from its top skaters, is looking to do the very same thing this year, and has minimal cap room to get help from the outside.
Sure, it's nice to have a policeman out there, but if Scott can't justify the minutes with his play, it's pointless to dress him and pretend he's having any effect on the game. It seems clear Scott doesn't have the ability nor potential to be anything but a goon, so he should be a healthy scratch until the demand for some enforcement is clear and undeniable.
Instead, his defensive minutes should be taken for now by Hendry, Boynton, and Cullimore, with Leddy getting time if the need arises and he's made the necessary steps forward as a pro. And Scott most definitely should NEVER dress as a wing in place of Skille or Stalberg or really any of the Hawks forwards. Those guys need every bit of ice time they can get and especially now that Hossa and Bolland are out, the Hawks need every bit of production they can provide. Pissing that away for a one-dimensional brute in 12 of 14 games has been one of the biggest mistakes JQ has made this year.
In general, I'd give the new blueliners an incomplete - pretty much what I would have expected. Sure it'd have been nice for someone to surprise and make an instant impact, but the reality is that most blueliners need time to both get comfortable and to really show what they're capable of. It's been nice that Cullimore has looked decent and that Boynton has seemingly justified a lot of minutes for stretches. It's nice that Hendry has finally gotten a steady dose of starts to string together. It was even nice to get Leddy a taste of NHL action and to have Scott exposed as the total one-dimensional goon he is.
But the reality is that there are 68 more games on the schedule and it will take maybe another 40 or 50 before I really feel like I'll have a grasp on what the Hawks feature after their very impressive Top 4. Do keep an eye out, because hockey is most definitely about quality of depth as much as it is about the headliners, so developing two or three capable NHL-level defenseman will be as crucial to a Cup defense as anything else.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
And You Are...? (part I)
First and foremost, if you're heading to the UC for a game, make sure you pick up a copy of the Committed Indian gameday program outside of the stadium before you go in. Just look around a bit, the guys are always out there before the games selling it. Not only is it cheap (easily the cheapest thing you'll buy at the UC all night) and must-read Hawks commentary (as is most everything at their website, http://www.secondcityhockey.com/), but it's worth having at the game if only for the two pages that lay out the predicted lineups for each team:
This is an example from the recent game against the Canucks. Obviously you can't appreciate the detail here, but you get the idea - it's a great visual and informational layout of all you'd need to know about all the skaters you'll probably see that night. Simple, concise, and makes it really easy to keep everyone straight. I was pumped when I saw it for the first time this year, so much so that I sort of reprinted this one w/o their permission. I hope they don't hammer me for it, but I figure I'm a lawyer and they're a bunch of drunks, so...
One of the reasons the above page is especially valuable this season is because of all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.
After 11 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.
Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.
Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.
Today - Goalies. Next - Blueliners. Day 3 - Forwards.
G Marty Turco, 35 years old, 9th season, $1.3M for 1 year, #30
By far the biggest off-season acquisition, Turco has a hell of a track record. He's started almost 500 games in his career and won over 260 of em (good for a stellar .580 win percentage). Before the lockout he was a beast in net, posting a GAA under 2 in his career. As the game opened up with the new post-lockout rules, Turco remained strong, winning an impressive 41 and 38 games the first two seasons out, then a still respectable 32 and 33 the years after.
Last season Marty, like the Stars, took a step back, failing to appear in 55+ games or win 30+ for the first time since he became a #1 goalie. The Hawks were wise to see thru those numbers to a guy who posted a .913 save percentage, his best since the lockout (and in fact, as good as what he posted the year before the labor break).
So how's he been doing? On opening night in Colorado, he stopped 37 of 40 shots before allowing the OT winner in. Two nights later he could must only 23 saves on 26 shots in the Banner Ceremony night against Detroit. OK, but not great and possibly cause for concern if it kept up.
Then? 4 starts, 4 Ws, and not a single one featuring anything lower than a pristine .927 save percentage, all while facing 30-40 shots a night. He followed that up with a bit of an off night, but rebounded last night with a pristine 33 saves on 34 shots against one of the hottest offenses in the entire NHL.
Now I'm not counting on Turco to end the season w/ a .921 save percentage, but it's outstanding to see he can be that good for stretches, because there will come a time in the playoffs where that's what the Hawks will need. No question right now the Hawks need some great goalie play. This is not the defensive system we saw last year, holding opponents to something like 20 or 25 shots a game. With Campbell out, Sopel and Barker gone, and so many new guys at forward, JQ's lockdown system just isn't happening.
So the fact that Turco is seeing around 35 shots a game and still has 11 out of 16 points for his squad? Yes, please. Especially on a measly $1.3M one-year deal.
And if you really wanna be sold, Niemi has four starts and been pretty terrible in three of them, while the Sharks other goalie has been absolutely sparkling. We're talking a very small sample size here, but kinda lends some credence to the idea that Niemi was a product of the system.
G Corey Crawford, 25 years old, 3rd season, $800k for 1 year, #50
That third season thing is misleading - Crawford has appeared in games each of the last two years, but he entered this season with only 5 career starts. For all intents and purposes, this guy is a rook.
So far, we've only seen three starts of his and that light workload will remain the case, as Turco is definitely a guy who wants to be in the net 60 times a year. However, Marty is getting older, the Hawks don't need to chase regular season points as desperately as most teams, and the plan certainly has to be for Turco to log 20+ games in the postseason.
All of that means that Crawford, if he can play respectably, will get 20-30 starts this year. If he can replicate what he's done in his first three, I'd be a happy camper.
He pulled out a tough W on the road against Ryan Miller and the Sabres, stopping 32 of 35 shots, and he lost a heartbreaker to the Preds when the Hawks went to sleep in the third, giving up a one-goal advantage and then losing in the final 30-seconds thanks to a horrendous penalty taken by Nick Boynton. He had another tough-luck loss against Columbus, stopping a stellar 37 of 40 shots, but coming up on the short end of a 3-2 game.
I've gotten to see two of those games and I can attest that so far this kid looks legit. I also remember him from his spot starts in seasons past and thought the same thing. A little rough around the edges but definitely capable. The excitement over Crawford has been tempered a bit by the fact that his AHL numbers were mediocre.
But chew on this - in 2008-2009, when both Niemi and Crawford were splitting time with Rockford, their numbers were about equal. The very next year Niemi was able to backstop the Hawks to a Cup. Is Crawford just as capable? Ya know, maybe. Certainly if the Hawks play the kind of D and get the kind of clutch scoring they did last season. From what I've seen - an admittedly small but still telling body of work - I think Crawford has what it takes IF, and that's definitely a bit if, he has the heart/mind to take the heat and grind of an NHL regular and post-season.
Ideally we won't find that out for another year or two, but at least for now, it's cool to know it might be the case. Keep watching him to see if his development arc suggests the same to you.
Tomorrow, I'll discuss the many new faces on the blueline (Boynton, Leddy, Cullimore, Hendry, and Scott), and next week wrap it up with the forwards (Bickell, Pisani, Dowell, Stalberg, and Skille).
As always, any comments are appreciated.
This is an example from the recent game against the Canucks. Obviously you can't appreciate the detail here, but you get the idea - it's a great visual and informational layout of all you'd need to know about all the skaters you'll probably see that night. Simple, concise, and makes it really easy to keep everyone straight. I was pumped when I saw it for the first time this year, so much so that I sort of reprinted this one w/o their permission. I hope they don't hammer me for it, but I figure I'm a lawyer and they're a bunch of drunks, so...
One of the reasons the above page is especially valuable this season is because of all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.
After 11 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.
Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.
Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.
Today - Goalies. Next - Blueliners. Day 3 - Forwards.
G Marty Turco, 35 years old, 9th season, $1.3M for 1 year, #30
By far the biggest off-season acquisition, Turco has a hell of a track record. He's started almost 500 games in his career and won over 260 of em (good for a stellar .580 win percentage). Before the lockout he was a beast in net, posting a GAA under 2 in his career. As the game opened up with the new post-lockout rules, Turco remained strong, winning an impressive 41 and 38 games the first two seasons out, then a still respectable 32 and 33 the years after.
Last season Marty, like the Stars, took a step back, failing to appear in 55+ games or win 30+ for the first time since he became a #1 goalie. The Hawks were wise to see thru those numbers to a guy who posted a .913 save percentage, his best since the lockout (and in fact, as good as what he posted the year before the labor break).
So how's he been doing? On opening night in Colorado, he stopped 37 of 40 shots before allowing the OT winner in. Two nights later he could must only 23 saves on 26 shots in the Banner Ceremony night against Detroit. OK, but not great and possibly cause for concern if it kept up.
Then? 4 starts, 4 Ws, and not a single one featuring anything lower than a pristine .927 save percentage, all while facing 30-40 shots a night. He followed that up with a bit of an off night, but rebounded last night with a pristine 33 saves on 34 shots against one of the hottest offenses in the entire NHL.
Now I'm not counting on Turco to end the season w/ a .921 save percentage, but it's outstanding to see he can be that good for stretches, because there will come a time in the playoffs where that's what the Hawks will need. No question right now the Hawks need some great goalie play. This is not the defensive system we saw last year, holding opponents to something like 20 or 25 shots a game. With Campbell out, Sopel and Barker gone, and so many new guys at forward, JQ's lockdown system just isn't happening.
So the fact that Turco is seeing around 35 shots a game and still has 11 out of 16 points for his squad? Yes, please. Especially on a measly $1.3M one-year deal.
And if you really wanna be sold, Niemi has four starts and been pretty terrible in three of them, while the Sharks other goalie has been absolutely sparkling. We're talking a very small sample size here, but kinda lends some credence to the idea that Niemi was a product of the system.
G Corey Crawford, 25 years old, 3rd season, $800k for 1 year, #50
That third season thing is misleading - Crawford has appeared in games each of the last two years, but he entered this season with only 5 career starts. For all intents and purposes, this guy is a rook.
So far, we've only seen three starts of his and that light workload will remain the case, as Turco is definitely a guy who wants to be in the net 60 times a year. However, Marty is getting older, the Hawks don't need to chase regular season points as desperately as most teams, and the plan certainly has to be for Turco to log 20+ games in the postseason.
All of that means that Crawford, if he can play respectably, will get 20-30 starts this year. If he can replicate what he's done in his first three, I'd be a happy camper.
He pulled out a tough W on the road against Ryan Miller and the Sabres, stopping 32 of 35 shots, and he lost a heartbreaker to the Preds when the Hawks went to sleep in the third, giving up a one-goal advantage and then losing in the final 30-seconds thanks to a horrendous penalty taken by Nick Boynton. He had another tough-luck loss against Columbus, stopping a stellar 37 of 40 shots, but coming up on the short end of a 3-2 game.
I've gotten to see two of those games and I can attest that so far this kid looks legit. I also remember him from his spot starts in seasons past and thought the same thing. A little rough around the edges but definitely capable. The excitement over Crawford has been tempered a bit by the fact that his AHL numbers were mediocre.
But chew on this - in 2008-2009, when both Niemi and Crawford were splitting time with Rockford, their numbers were about equal. The very next year Niemi was able to backstop the Hawks to a Cup. Is Crawford just as capable? Ya know, maybe. Certainly if the Hawks play the kind of D and get the kind of clutch scoring they did last season. From what I've seen - an admittedly small but still telling body of work - I think Crawford has what it takes IF, and that's definitely a bit if, he has the heart/mind to take the heat and grind of an NHL regular and post-season.
Ideally we won't find that out for another year or two, but at least for now, it's cool to know it might be the case. Keep watching him to see if his development arc suggests the same to you.
Tomorrow, I'll discuss the many new faces on the blueline (Boynton, Leddy, Cullimore, Hendry, and Scott), and next week wrap it up with the forwards (Bickell, Pisani, Dowell, Stalberg, and Skille).
As always, any comments are appreciated.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
"D!" "Fence!"
So the title defense starts tonight... were you even aware? Hard to believe that it's time for hockey again, especially given how late last season went. Throw in the fact that the baseball playoffs just started, that football is only at the quarter post, and that it's pretty warm here in Chicago, and I'm just not feeling very NHL-ie right now.
Some day I'll bore you with my theory on how the hockey season should be timed (think Stanley Cup Playoffs filling the "Dead Zone" every night), but for now the NHL powers that be somehow think it makes sense to be discreet as possible when kicking off your season. You know, might as well start playing when the sporting world's attention couldn't be more diverted from you.
For the Hawks, this might actually be a good thing. As much confidence as I have in them (if I was forced to bet everything I had on just one NHL team to win it all, no question it'd be the Hawks, and that's not because I'm a homer), there's no question the Hawks are gonna need a bit of time to get everything working as they want it. There are just too many new faces, too many unproven assets, to think that there won't be growing pains, probably significant ones.
So maybe it's best that the city and our sports commentators will be distracted by the Bears O Line, another Boozer injury, and baseball teams that don't suck to hammer the Hawks for problems that are guaranteed to happen... but not guaranteed to last. I've got faith in this squad, faith in the moves that were made, faith in the overall approach to building and retaining a contending squad that this front office is following.
See, my cleverly crafted post title has two meanings. First, it represents the start of our title defense - that's a damn exciting thing to be a part of something we need to remind ourselves about. When you start doubting this squad, just remember that at the end of the day, everyone else has been shown beatable - these Hawks have yet to be.
Second, I wanted to highlight the specific reason I think WAY too much is being made of the Hawks off-season talent exodus. Simply put, the Hawks did not lose a whole lot of what made them one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and at the end of the day, in hockey just like all sports, defense is what wins championships.
Cliche, but so incredibly true. Look across every sport and you'll see the same thing - teams w/ no offense but a great defense able to win titles, while high octane offenses w/o any D always fall short. And equally as convincing - teams with great offenses only taking home the title once they finally were able to upgrade their D (think Rams, Colts, and Saints in the NFL, or the Yankees finally getting some SPs last year in baseball).
So I'm just blown away by the universal belief (based on all of the predictions I've seen) that the Hawks will not win the Cup this year. Sure, the Hawks lost a 20-, two 17-, a 10-, and two 7-goal scorers from last season. But they still have their Top 5 goal scorers and just as important, their top 7 assist men.
Yes, Versteeg, Buff, and Ladd all were valuable offensive pieces that could score and create a lot more than most role players. But not only is the majority of the Hawks high-powered O still intact, the incredible amount of talent that is there should allow the incoming role players to quickly become productive players in the opponents' end.
However, even if these youngsters don't make up for all the lost scoring (and I think they'll be close, but definitely still short), this Hawks team can still be just as good because their defense is largely intact or improved. Not just their blueliners, but their key defensive forwards and their goaltending.
Your Top 4 defenseman - all back, all still in their prime or possibly getting better (I think both the Hammer and Seabrook still have upside, scary given how good they are). Your three two-way centerman - all back, with Bolland following up a real playoff coming out party that had to establish him as one of the better shut-down pivotmen in the league.
On top of that, it's distinctly possible the Hawks have upgraded the most important single position to defense - the goalie. Niemi played solidly down the stretch and through the playoffs, gave the Hawks some big games and big stops when they needed it, and in all was the kind of goalie you can win a Cup with (an obvious statement now, but still the best way to describe him). But Niemi wasn't going to carry you to any Cups (as the Sharks will learn, if their defensive work doesn't drastically improve) and in my opinion did nothing more behind a stellar Blackhawks defensive scheme than maybe 15 or even 20 other NHL goalies could have done.
In his place, the Hawks got a guy in Turco who showed, prior to his two-year hiatus, that he could be a real beast in the playoffs, carrying a middling Dallas team to the Western Conference Finals. Back in the day he thrived in the defense-first system that former Stars coach Ken Hitchcock utilized, posting some of the best season totals out of a goalie of the last few decades. And while I think a tad bit too much is being made of it, going from the basically stickless Niemi to one of the league's top puck-handling keepers is gonna help this team on both ends.
So with three great centerman and four stud defensive blueliners back, as well as a possible upgrade in goal, doesn't it seem a bit stupid that all of the national "experts" jumped off the Hawks' bandwagon so quickly? Can't you see this squad playing the same lockdown D that carried them to one of the league's best regular season marks and then, of course, the Cup, given the great majority of the same outstanding defensive pieces?
No question Madden, Versteeg, Ladd, and Sopel, even Buff, Frasier, and Eager were contributors on the defensive end that will be missed. But are you really worried that they aren't replaceable, at least defensively? The Hawks 4th line might not have the same offensive spark it had in the past, the third line might not be the same defacto scoring line it was last year. (I say might - who knows, as the Hawks do have a lot of nice young talent that might just surprise).
But defensively, doesn't it seem plausible that the athletic, hard-working, playing-for-their-hockey lives group of youngsters the Hawks have will be real assets? Especially given JQ's demand of such? Especially given the way two of your biggest stars and leaders - Toews and Hossa - kill themselves in their own end? Especially given the fact that these new guys won't be in roles demanding much more of them than to be complimentary pieces that do all the little things?
Here's how I see it - the Hawks will stumble a bit out of the gate as the players all learn to skate with so many guys they've never shared ice time with. They'll have some troubles early without Campbell's 20-25 minutes a night for the first month or so. They'll run into some issues juggling around the youngsters, figuring out which ones are keepers and whom should play where.
But along the way they'll still be winning at a decent clip, just because they are so talented and because the NHL features a lot of teams that are very beatable. And then they'll get Campbell back, just as they've finally learned what they've got in all these new faces, finally settled on some semblance of regular lines that work top to bottom. Sure, an injury or two might crop up to slow them down, but again, the core will be enough to overcome whatever happens, just like last year (Hossa, Bolland, and KJohnsson all missing significant time).
The Hawks will enter the playoffs as a top seed, or maybe just as a #5, but still dangerous and favored by a lot of pundits. They'll scuffle a bit in the first round, as once again the newbies have to figure out what playoff hockey entails and JQ has to respond by getting the right lines set for the postseason's unique style of play.
But again, the sheer talent combined with their outstanding system will be enough for these Hawks to triumph in what is a very winnable NHL. Detroit? Always dangerous, but getting old in spots and with an unaccomplished goalie. San Jose and Vancouver? Has all that much changed for a pair of teams shown wanting year after year, both in talent and heart? Washington? Remember the title of this post. New Jersey? How many times does Brodeur after to fail when it matters for people to accept he's just not that good anymore? Pittsburgh and Philly? Probably the two teams I fear the most, but definitely both beatable if the Hawks can be what I think they will be.
So to borrow from the world of sports' greatest homer announcer - "Sit back, relax and strap it down" because the Hawks first title defense in almost 50 years is about to begin... and I'm betting it's gonna be a successful one that you're gonna want to be a part of.
Some day I'll bore you with my theory on how the hockey season should be timed (think Stanley Cup Playoffs filling the "Dead Zone" every night), but for now the NHL powers that be somehow think it makes sense to be discreet as possible when kicking off your season. You know, might as well start playing when the sporting world's attention couldn't be more diverted from you.
For the Hawks, this might actually be a good thing. As much confidence as I have in them (if I was forced to bet everything I had on just one NHL team to win it all, no question it'd be the Hawks, and that's not because I'm a homer), there's no question the Hawks are gonna need a bit of time to get everything working as they want it. There are just too many new faces, too many unproven assets, to think that there won't be growing pains, probably significant ones.
So maybe it's best that the city and our sports commentators will be distracted by the Bears O Line, another Boozer injury, and baseball teams that don't suck to hammer the Hawks for problems that are guaranteed to happen... but not guaranteed to last. I've got faith in this squad, faith in the moves that were made, faith in the overall approach to building and retaining a contending squad that this front office is following.
See, my cleverly crafted post title has two meanings. First, it represents the start of our title defense - that's a damn exciting thing to be a part of something we need to remind ourselves about. When you start doubting this squad, just remember that at the end of the day, everyone else has been shown beatable - these Hawks have yet to be.
Second, I wanted to highlight the specific reason I think WAY too much is being made of the Hawks off-season talent exodus. Simply put, the Hawks did not lose a whole lot of what made them one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and at the end of the day, in hockey just like all sports, defense is what wins championships.
Cliche, but so incredibly true. Look across every sport and you'll see the same thing - teams w/ no offense but a great defense able to win titles, while high octane offenses w/o any D always fall short. And equally as convincing - teams with great offenses only taking home the title once they finally were able to upgrade their D (think Rams, Colts, and Saints in the NFL, or the Yankees finally getting some SPs last year in baseball).
So I'm just blown away by the universal belief (based on all of the predictions I've seen) that the Hawks will not win the Cup this year. Sure, the Hawks lost a 20-, two 17-, a 10-, and two 7-goal scorers from last season. But they still have their Top 5 goal scorers and just as important, their top 7 assist men.
Yes, Versteeg, Buff, and Ladd all were valuable offensive pieces that could score and create a lot more than most role players. But not only is the majority of the Hawks high-powered O still intact, the incredible amount of talent that is there should allow the incoming role players to quickly become productive players in the opponents' end.
However, even if these youngsters don't make up for all the lost scoring (and I think they'll be close, but definitely still short), this Hawks team can still be just as good because their defense is largely intact or improved. Not just their blueliners, but their key defensive forwards and their goaltending.
Your Top 4 defenseman - all back, all still in their prime or possibly getting better (I think both the Hammer and Seabrook still have upside, scary given how good they are). Your three two-way centerman - all back, with Bolland following up a real playoff coming out party that had to establish him as one of the better shut-down pivotmen in the league.
On top of that, it's distinctly possible the Hawks have upgraded the most important single position to defense - the goalie. Niemi played solidly down the stretch and through the playoffs, gave the Hawks some big games and big stops when they needed it, and in all was the kind of goalie you can win a Cup with (an obvious statement now, but still the best way to describe him). But Niemi wasn't going to carry you to any Cups (as the Sharks will learn, if their defensive work doesn't drastically improve) and in my opinion did nothing more behind a stellar Blackhawks defensive scheme than maybe 15 or even 20 other NHL goalies could have done.
In his place, the Hawks got a guy in Turco who showed, prior to his two-year hiatus, that he could be a real beast in the playoffs, carrying a middling Dallas team to the Western Conference Finals. Back in the day he thrived in the defense-first system that former Stars coach Ken Hitchcock utilized, posting some of the best season totals out of a goalie of the last few decades. And while I think a tad bit too much is being made of it, going from the basically stickless Niemi to one of the league's top puck-handling keepers is gonna help this team on both ends.
So with three great centerman and four stud defensive blueliners back, as well as a possible upgrade in goal, doesn't it seem a bit stupid that all of the national "experts" jumped off the Hawks' bandwagon so quickly? Can't you see this squad playing the same lockdown D that carried them to one of the league's best regular season marks and then, of course, the Cup, given the great majority of the same outstanding defensive pieces?
No question Madden, Versteeg, Ladd, and Sopel, even Buff, Frasier, and Eager were contributors on the defensive end that will be missed. But are you really worried that they aren't replaceable, at least defensively? The Hawks 4th line might not have the same offensive spark it had in the past, the third line might not be the same defacto scoring line it was last year. (I say might - who knows, as the Hawks do have a lot of nice young talent that might just surprise).
But defensively, doesn't it seem plausible that the athletic, hard-working, playing-for-their-hockey lives group of youngsters the Hawks have will be real assets? Especially given JQ's demand of such? Especially given the way two of your biggest stars and leaders - Toews and Hossa - kill themselves in their own end? Especially given the fact that these new guys won't be in roles demanding much more of them than to be complimentary pieces that do all the little things?
Here's how I see it - the Hawks will stumble a bit out of the gate as the players all learn to skate with so many guys they've never shared ice time with. They'll have some troubles early without Campbell's 20-25 minutes a night for the first month or so. They'll run into some issues juggling around the youngsters, figuring out which ones are keepers and whom should play where.
But along the way they'll still be winning at a decent clip, just because they are so talented and because the NHL features a lot of teams that are very beatable. And then they'll get Campbell back, just as they've finally learned what they've got in all these new faces, finally settled on some semblance of regular lines that work top to bottom. Sure, an injury or two might crop up to slow them down, but again, the core will be enough to overcome whatever happens, just like last year (Hossa, Bolland, and KJohnsson all missing significant time).
The Hawks will enter the playoffs as a top seed, or maybe just as a #5, but still dangerous and favored by a lot of pundits. They'll scuffle a bit in the first round, as once again the newbies have to figure out what playoff hockey entails and JQ has to respond by getting the right lines set for the postseason's unique style of play.
But again, the sheer talent combined with their outstanding system will be enough for these Hawks to triumph in what is a very winnable NHL. Detroit? Always dangerous, but getting old in spots and with an unaccomplished goalie. San Jose and Vancouver? Has all that much changed for a pair of teams shown wanting year after year, both in talent and heart? Washington? Remember the title of this post. New Jersey? How many times does Brodeur after to fail when it matters for people to accept he's just not that good anymore? Pittsburgh and Philly? Probably the two teams I fear the most, but definitely both beatable if the Hawks can be what I think they will be.
So to borrow from the world of sports' greatest homer announcer - "Sit back, relax and strap it down" because the Hawks first title defense in almost 50 years is about to begin... and I'm betting it's gonna be a successful one that you're gonna want to be a part of.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
"When You Get To Hell, Tell Em Itchie Sent Ya!"
What's played out between the Hawks and the Sharks this past summer has been a pretty interesting game of cat-and-mouse. I chose the classic Simpson's line to represent such for the title of this post, but I could have just as easily chosen the Ren & Stimply mainstay "Don't Piss On The Electronic Fence."
That's because the Sharks played a dangerous game this summer in trying to manipulate the Hawks payroll to their benefit. Apparently there's sort of an unsaid agreement among front offices that you don't make offers to other team's restricted free agents. The idea being that such offers will eventually come back to inflate your own player costs, with everyone losing in the process.
Whether there really is some wink-wink agreement among teams or simply few restricted free agents really are worth making an offer to, given the unlikelihood the team doesn't match or the high cost in draft picks forfeited if they don't is something I don't actually know. But what is clear is that it just doesn't happen - Stan Bowman said as much at an early summer news conference, when he claimed he wasn't worried about restricted offers.
Whatever the case may be, the Sharks stepped in with a very aggressive offer for the young Hammer, at $3.5M per for four years. That's about the absolute high end for a defenseman without any offensive skills, without great size, and without a long track record. And it's probably a whole lot more than Bowman planned on giving the Hammer when he was forecasting his summer moves, maybe as much as $1 or even $1.5 million per year more.
In the face-off with the Sharks front office, Bowman didn't blink. He matched the offer sheet for Hammer, as he absolutely should have. Nik is a beast back on defense, the stay-at-home lockdown type that Campbell needs. A shot-blocking machine that every PK unit needs. And an already a plus player with more upside as he continues to fill out and learn the game.
As flashy as the Hawks are up front, at the end of the day they win and lose because of their great defensive system. And the Hammer was a crucial, can't-lose piece of that system. I'm so glad that the Bowman brain trust felt that way too.
By matching, Stan had to first send Marty Reasoner packing. I'm not sure if this was in the works anyway, but it'd seem odd to trade for a guy you knew you'd dump shortly. I think the Hawks hoped there'd be just enough for a $1M defensive centerman for the 4th line. As it turns out, that became a luxury the team couldn't afford.
Much more impactful though was the fact that Bowman had to also let Cup-winning young backstop Antti Niemi go. Sure they pretended to be negotiating up to the arbitration meeting, but the reality is that after the Hammer re-signing, the Hawks front office knew that even if they won in the Neimi hearing, they'd still lose him. There just wasn't a dollar amount that Niemi was gonna accept nor that the arbitrator was going to award the Hawks that would have fit the payroll slot that remained.
This is especially true because apparently Marty Turco was locked and loaded in the wings. All reports are that he avoided signing anywhere else - including for more money with Cup runners-up the Flyers - because he specifically wanted to come to the Hawks and had indications that they felt the same way. You can't help but believe this when you saw how quickly after the decision the Hawks cut Niemi free and locked up Turco for this year.
Last week the final piece of the Sharks plan came into focus. With only the unproven Antero Niittymaki locked in at goal, for a very reasonable $2M each of the next two seasons, the Sharks were in a position to bring Niemi in for another $2M on a one-year deal. For less than they were paying the annually disappointing Nabakov, the Sharks had a respectable NHL journeyman in Niitymaki and now a Cup-winning youngster in Niemi.
So did Doug Wilson and the rest of the Sharks front office brain trust pull one over on the Hawks? Well, first off there wasn't a whole lot Bowman could have done even if he did want things to shake out differently. The Sharks made an offer on HJ, as they were allowed, and the Hawks were forced to match to keep him.
As for Niemi, sure Bowman could have kept him if he wanted, maybe for less than the $2.75M he won in arbitration. But I believe all the chatter that Bowman wasn't too interested. He had to know he could have Turco for the $1.35M he ultimately signed for, and given the extreme pressures on the Hawks payroll, the $1M or so he was saving in doing so was significant.
That extra million gave him room to make moves for injuries, to keep a higher paid prospect, maybe even to score a veteran role player down the road. On top of that, it's not clear Niemi would have re-upped with the Hawks for only a year. He did so with the Sharks, but that's only after it had to become clear to him that there weren't a lot of options out there. With the Hawks, Niemi seemingly wanted more than a token one-year deal and thus Bowman would have been locked into whatever contract he offered now again next season, when certainly payroll pressures will remain.
But the main reason I'm not sure the Sharks have put one past us is that I'm not sold on Niemi. To me he's just one of many average, maybe above average NHL goalies. Like the large majority of goalies playing in the NHL, he's a product of the players and system in front of him. Give him the right situation and Niemi is talented enough to win some big games for you.
But I've watched a lot of hockey in my life and seen a lot of lightly regarded goaltenders win a lot of big games for teams in the NHL Playoffs. Even if you are to set the bar as high as active NHL goalies with a Cup on their resumes, you're still looking at a bunch of guys who won't blow you away.
Osgood wasn't even the #1 guy heading into the playoffs for Detroit in 2008. JS Giguere in 2007 had a nice track record of success with the Ducks, but this past season, not even three years later, at only 33, he was unceremoniously dumped by the Ducks on the hot mess that is the Leafs. Cam Ward, the 2006 winner for the Canes, has put up solid numbers, but missed the playoffs three times in the four seasons since hoisting the Cup. And do you really want me to remind you what the recently jailed Khabi has done since his Cup win just before the lockout?
Lord, if you open it up to goalies who've taken their team to the finals and lost, you get an even more unimpressive list. Just think about this past Olympics - not a single starting goalie had even a Cup Finals to their credit, let alone a ring. Heck, few goalies in the whole Olympics had anything resembling Cup Finals experience.
My point? Don't go getting too upset over the fact that the Hawks just let a young Cup-winning goalie go. There's little to no correlation between one successful run in the NHL playoffs and sustained success as a #1 netminder. For all practical purposes, Niemi was just another role-player, no more important nor irreplaceable than a Ladd or Madden. I'd argue Buff and Versteeg will be greater losses this year.
So yeah, I think the Sharks just pissed all over the electric fence. Sure they were shrewd in getting the Hawks to pay a million or more per year for the Hammer. But if their main goal was to spring Niemi free, they don't have a whole ton to celebrate just yet. Niemi thrived behind an amazing defensive team and system, neither of which the Sharks have been shown to have.
Their blueline and forwards both are inferior to the Hawks group defensively and there's nothing to say their system is anything better, if not worse. Plus, the book on Niemi hadn't been written when he snuck through the regular season with fewer than half of the starts. Let's see how he holds up - both physically and in effectiveness - when Niemi's called on to start 50+ games and then a full slate of playoffs (after his long post-season run last year). And let's see what Uncle Niemi can do when he's not playing behind Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, Campbell, even Sopel, and a forward crew with plus defenders like Toews, Madden, Sharp, Hossa, Versteeg, and Bolland.
Yeah, there isn't a ton of downside to the Sharks getting a guy who's proven he won't wilt under the pressure. For just $2M for one year, San Jose won't regret this move too much. But I'm also not shaking in my boots because they found a middling NHL goaltender who's greatest asset was being in the right place behind the right melting down Frenchman.
It's possible Niemi becomes a bit more consistent and with more experience and confidence makes up for the lack of defensive (and offensive) prowess that's no longer in front of him. But I'm not counting on it and therefore am not too impressed by this nefarious Sharks front office plan this summer.
What I am counting on is Turco being every bit the guy Niemi was, and if he can't handle it, then Crawford getting the job done, and if he can't handle it, then another young Finn the Hawks quietly acquired this offseason - Hannu Toivonen - doing so. Because the Hawks have the talent in front and play the right type of system to make any respectable NHL goaltender a Cup winner. I'm looking forward to them proving it again this season.
That's because the Sharks played a dangerous game this summer in trying to manipulate the Hawks payroll to their benefit. Apparently there's sort of an unsaid agreement among front offices that you don't make offers to other team's restricted free agents. The idea being that such offers will eventually come back to inflate your own player costs, with everyone losing in the process.
Whether there really is some wink-wink agreement among teams or simply few restricted free agents really are worth making an offer to, given the unlikelihood the team doesn't match or the high cost in draft picks forfeited if they don't is something I don't actually know. But what is clear is that it just doesn't happen - Stan Bowman said as much at an early summer news conference, when he claimed he wasn't worried about restricted offers.
Whatever the case may be, the Sharks stepped in with a very aggressive offer for the young Hammer, at $3.5M per for four years. That's about the absolute high end for a defenseman without any offensive skills, without great size, and without a long track record. And it's probably a whole lot more than Bowman planned on giving the Hammer when he was forecasting his summer moves, maybe as much as $1 or even $1.5 million per year more.
In the face-off with the Sharks front office, Bowman didn't blink. He matched the offer sheet for Hammer, as he absolutely should have. Nik is a beast back on defense, the stay-at-home lockdown type that Campbell needs. A shot-blocking machine that every PK unit needs. And an already a plus player with more upside as he continues to fill out and learn the game.
As flashy as the Hawks are up front, at the end of the day they win and lose because of their great defensive system. And the Hammer was a crucial, can't-lose piece of that system. I'm so glad that the Bowman brain trust felt that way too.
By matching, Stan had to first send Marty Reasoner packing. I'm not sure if this was in the works anyway, but it'd seem odd to trade for a guy you knew you'd dump shortly. I think the Hawks hoped there'd be just enough for a $1M defensive centerman for the 4th line. As it turns out, that became a luxury the team couldn't afford.
Much more impactful though was the fact that Bowman had to also let Cup-winning young backstop Antti Niemi go. Sure they pretended to be negotiating up to the arbitration meeting, but the reality is that after the Hammer re-signing, the Hawks front office knew that even if they won in the Neimi hearing, they'd still lose him. There just wasn't a dollar amount that Niemi was gonna accept nor that the arbitrator was going to award the Hawks that would have fit the payroll slot that remained.
This is especially true because apparently Marty Turco was locked and loaded in the wings. All reports are that he avoided signing anywhere else - including for more money with Cup runners-up the Flyers - because he specifically wanted to come to the Hawks and had indications that they felt the same way. You can't help but believe this when you saw how quickly after the decision the Hawks cut Niemi free and locked up Turco for this year.
Last week the final piece of the Sharks plan came into focus. With only the unproven Antero Niittymaki locked in at goal, for a very reasonable $2M each of the next two seasons, the Sharks were in a position to bring Niemi in for another $2M on a one-year deal. For less than they were paying the annually disappointing Nabakov, the Sharks had a respectable NHL journeyman in Niitymaki and now a Cup-winning youngster in Niemi.
So did Doug Wilson and the rest of the Sharks front office brain trust pull one over on the Hawks? Well, first off there wasn't a whole lot Bowman could have done even if he did want things to shake out differently. The Sharks made an offer on HJ, as they were allowed, and the Hawks were forced to match to keep him.
As for Niemi, sure Bowman could have kept him if he wanted, maybe for less than the $2.75M he won in arbitration. But I believe all the chatter that Bowman wasn't too interested. He had to know he could have Turco for the $1.35M he ultimately signed for, and given the extreme pressures on the Hawks payroll, the $1M or so he was saving in doing so was significant.
That extra million gave him room to make moves for injuries, to keep a higher paid prospect, maybe even to score a veteran role player down the road. On top of that, it's not clear Niemi would have re-upped with the Hawks for only a year. He did so with the Sharks, but that's only after it had to become clear to him that there weren't a lot of options out there. With the Hawks, Niemi seemingly wanted more than a token one-year deal and thus Bowman would have been locked into whatever contract he offered now again next season, when certainly payroll pressures will remain.
But the main reason I'm not sure the Sharks have put one past us is that I'm not sold on Niemi. To me he's just one of many average, maybe above average NHL goalies. Like the large majority of goalies playing in the NHL, he's a product of the players and system in front of him. Give him the right situation and Niemi is talented enough to win some big games for you.
But I've watched a lot of hockey in my life and seen a lot of lightly regarded goaltenders win a lot of big games for teams in the NHL Playoffs. Even if you are to set the bar as high as active NHL goalies with a Cup on their resumes, you're still looking at a bunch of guys who won't blow you away.
Osgood wasn't even the #1 guy heading into the playoffs for Detroit in 2008. JS Giguere in 2007 had a nice track record of success with the Ducks, but this past season, not even three years later, at only 33, he was unceremoniously dumped by the Ducks on the hot mess that is the Leafs. Cam Ward, the 2006 winner for the Canes, has put up solid numbers, but missed the playoffs three times in the four seasons since hoisting the Cup. And do you really want me to remind you what the recently jailed Khabi has done since his Cup win just before the lockout?
Lord, if you open it up to goalies who've taken their team to the finals and lost, you get an even more unimpressive list. Just think about this past Olympics - not a single starting goalie had even a Cup Finals to their credit, let alone a ring. Heck, few goalies in the whole Olympics had anything resembling Cup Finals experience.
My point? Don't go getting too upset over the fact that the Hawks just let a young Cup-winning goalie go. There's little to no correlation between one successful run in the NHL playoffs and sustained success as a #1 netminder. For all practical purposes, Niemi was just another role-player, no more important nor irreplaceable than a Ladd or Madden. I'd argue Buff and Versteeg will be greater losses this year.
So yeah, I think the Sharks just pissed all over the electric fence. Sure they were shrewd in getting the Hawks to pay a million or more per year for the Hammer. But if their main goal was to spring Niemi free, they don't have a whole ton to celebrate just yet. Niemi thrived behind an amazing defensive team and system, neither of which the Sharks have been shown to have.
Their blueline and forwards both are inferior to the Hawks group defensively and there's nothing to say their system is anything better, if not worse. Plus, the book on Niemi hadn't been written when he snuck through the regular season with fewer than half of the starts. Let's see how he holds up - both physically and in effectiveness - when Niemi's called on to start 50+ games and then a full slate of playoffs (after his long post-season run last year). And let's see what Uncle Niemi can do when he's not playing behind Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, Campbell, even Sopel, and a forward crew with plus defenders like Toews, Madden, Sharp, Hossa, Versteeg, and Bolland.
Yeah, there isn't a ton of downside to the Sharks getting a guy who's proven he won't wilt under the pressure. For just $2M for one year, San Jose won't regret this move too much. But I'm also not shaking in my boots because they found a middling NHL goaltender who's greatest asset was being in the right place behind the right melting down Frenchman.
It's possible Niemi becomes a bit more consistent and with more experience and confidence makes up for the lack of defensive (and offensive) prowess that's no longer in front of him. But I'm not counting on it and therefore am not too impressed by this nefarious Sharks front office plan this summer.
What I am counting on is Turco being every bit the guy Niemi was, and if he can't handle it, then Crawford getting the job done, and if he can't handle it, then another young Finn the Hawks quietly acquired this offseason - Hannu Toivonen - doing so. Because the Hawks have the talent in front and play the right type of system to make any respectable NHL goaltender a Cup winner. I'm looking forward to them proving it again this season.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Real Story Of The Great Salary Cull of 2010
First off, I've got to pimp by buddy's blog, which is best described as Chicago-focused general sports talk. Very insightful, covers a range of topics, and far less lengthy than what you'll find around here. Check it out here.
I don't think I've ever heard anything stupider, more mis-applied, or more ignorant than the concept that the Hawks have just finished up a firesale that mirrored the infamous version the Florida Marlins of 1997 executed.
Those Marlins mortgaged their entire future to accumulate as many big money stars as possible, rode them to a title, and then chose to immediately sell every single piece they could to avoid having to foot the salary bill for another season, guaranteeing a long rebuilding process that would keep the team out of contention for years.
The 2010 Chicago Blackhawks patiently developed an unheard collection of talent, wisely (for the most part) spent to add pieces to the tremendous young core as it came into its own, rode them to a title, strategically decided which players were key core components moving forward, were forced only by the league's salary cap rules to shed the complimentary pieces, and in doing so secured the talent that should help keep the team in title contention for the foreseeable future.
The fact that anyone would confuse those two storylines above is evidence of severe retardation. The Great Salary Cull of 2010 was a work of absolute genius coming and going. Period, end of story. As a Hawks fan, you should feel great about what got us here and you should feel great about where we're going from here. This was genius at work - we've already enjoyed some of the fruits and we'll most definitely enjoy more in the future.
Despite the difficulties of watching many of our Cup heroes leave this summer, it was most definitely genius that caused it to happen. Dale Tallon, the Bowmans, and a number of other great front office hockey minds assembled such an absurd array of talent that to keep it together this season would have meant a cap number of over $72M!
Yep, just adding up the 2010-2011 salaries of all of the guys who saw action in the playoffs, you get a cap number that is more than $12M over the cap. And that's assuming Boynton signs for the league minimum of $500k this year, ignores Kimmy Johnsson, who made $4.8M last year and probably is in line for at least $2-3M this year, and doesn't factor in the $4.1M of cap bonuses the Hawks are on the hook for this season.
The Hawks front office deserves endless accolades for getting a team with a market value of $70-$80M to fit into a cap that stood at $56M last year. Especially because only two of the players on the team were significantly overpaid. Campbell shouldn't be making more than $5M (instead of his $7.142M cap hit) and Huet, even at the time of his signing, shouldn't have gotten more than $3M (instead of his $5.625M cap hit). Throw in Sopel being a bit overpaid at $2.333M (instead of maybe 1.2ish?) and we're still only talking $5M or so in bad cap use. With the bonuses, that's still a team that's legitimately worth $70M, easy.
Oh, and there's that little thing about winning the first Stanley Cup in almost half a century to consider. Yep, all told, I'd say that Tallon, the Bowmans, and their colleagues did a freakin wonderful job collecting so much talent that they were laughably over the NHL Salary Cap limit when all was said and done. You should view this forced exodus, while clearly a bummer, as a big giant star on the homework assignments of the Hawks' front office.
So these guys were geniuses for putting us in this position - but did they really make all the right moves in responding to it? Well, only time will really tell. Maybe they let go of a superstar or kept a bust. Maybe these prospects they traded for won't ever develop. Maybe the guys who they created roster space for don't step up. Maybe the players they select with all their draft picks amount to nothing.
But from where we're sitting right now, I think the Bowmans have done a great job this summer. First off, as I'll detail in a post to come, they made the exact right choices as to who to keep around as the core. I loved a lot of the guys who left town this summer, but I wouldn't have chosen to keep any of them over the ones the Hawks did.
Toews, Sharp, Bolland, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and the Hammer form a group of players that could contend for the Cup for the next decade. This is a group that will dominate in all three zones, on all three units, in every aspect of the game. They are young, committed, and hungry. They are experienced, proven, and reliable. As long as you can look out onto the ice and see a collection of players like that, as a fan you've got to feel amazing about your hockey club.
I want to stress that again - with the above players skating for the Hawks next year, we should be just fine. You hear a lot of snide comments about the Hawks not having anyone left next year - retarded. I'm not sure there are more than 2-3 teams that wouldn't trade their entire roster for the Hawks' core. This club, while certainly facing some growing pains, will be a Cup favorite and a real power, if, like every one else, they can stay healthy.
Second, it sounds like the Hawks really loaded up on all levels of prospects - from draft picks to NHL-ready types, to guys a year or two away. The pipeline which produced so many of the players we saw skate with the Cup last year (or were used to acquire so many of those players) now seems to be restocked to do it all over again.
Equally important, the Hawks are in a place to capitalize on this next wave. They've managed to open up a number of roster spots on the big league club while still keeping more than enough talent around to allow the youngsters to develop as complimentary pieces without much pressure.
As the Hawks learned the hard way over the past decade, when your big league club is devoid of any real talent, it's not easy to bring up prospects and turn them into high-impact NHLers. But you bring a guy up and let him ride shotgun with Toews and Kane? You let him do the dirty work for Sharp and Hossa? You let him kill penalties next to The Hammer? You let him learn to be a shutdown forward skating with Bolland?
That is how you seamlessly transition from one set of unproven complimentary pieces to another. And let's not forget, that's all the Hawks have gotten rid of this summer. Aside Madden, Sopel and Huet, no one they let go of was anything before the 07-08 breakout year. Only put next to supreme talent in a great system and allowed the time to develop, did the likes of Buff, Versteeg, Ladd, Eager, Burish, Fraser, and Niemi become the players we know today.
So why shouldn't we be confident that the next batch of Hawks prospects will similarly emerge? Bickell, Skille, Dowell, Stalberg, Hendry, Crawford, Leddy, Beach, Vishnevskiy, Lalonde, Makarov, and Toivonen all carry the same pedigrees, the same high expectations of our now departed Cup winners.
In fact, these guys probably are much more highly anticipated then what we had in that group above. Don't forget that a lot of these guys we just got rid of, if not all of them, were brought in to little fanfare. Mid to late round picks, unheralded trades, undrafted free agents. But the Hawks organization molded them into winners, just as I have faith they'll do with the next generation.
I can't guarantee everything the Bowmans did this summer was perfect. But I can promise you that we're only in this spot because of the great work they and Tallon did before. Mistakes didn't get us here, being incredibly good at their job of accumulating talent did. And we've got the freaking Cup to prove it!
And I can tell you that I love the core group they've committed to. And that the Hawks front office has earned your benefit of the doubt in terms of the prospects they've brought in and the guys they'll give time to next season. You shouldn't be feeling uneasy about the Cup defense - you should know that this organization is stocked with the core talent to win it and have proven they know how to fold the necessary complimentary pieces into the mix.
So the next idiot you hear reference the Florida Marlins or doubt what kind of team we'll return next year, just smile and nod. And then when they go to walk away, cross check them square in the back. "O'Doyle rules!"
I don't think I've ever heard anything stupider, more mis-applied, or more ignorant than the concept that the Hawks have just finished up a firesale that mirrored the infamous version the Florida Marlins of 1997 executed.
Those Marlins mortgaged their entire future to accumulate as many big money stars as possible, rode them to a title, and then chose to immediately sell every single piece they could to avoid having to foot the salary bill for another season, guaranteeing a long rebuilding process that would keep the team out of contention for years.
The 2010 Chicago Blackhawks patiently developed an unheard collection of talent, wisely (for the most part) spent to add pieces to the tremendous young core as it came into its own, rode them to a title, strategically decided which players were key core components moving forward, were forced only by the league's salary cap rules to shed the complimentary pieces, and in doing so secured the talent that should help keep the team in title contention for the foreseeable future.
The fact that anyone would confuse those two storylines above is evidence of severe retardation. The Great Salary Cull of 2010 was a work of absolute genius coming and going. Period, end of story. As a Hawks fan, you should feel great about what got us here and you should feel great about where we're going from here. This was genius at work - we've already enjoyed some of the fruits and we'll most definitely enjoy more in the future.
Despite the difficulties of watching many of our Cup heroes leave this summer, it was most definitely genius that caused it to happen. Dale Tallon, the Bowmans, and a number of other great front office hockey minds assembled such an absurd array of talent that to keep it together this season would have meant a cap number of over $72M!
Yep, just adding up the 2010-2011 salaries of all of the guys who saw action in the playoffs, you get a cap number that is more than $12M over the cap. And that's assuming Boynton signs for the league minimum of $500k this year, ignores Kimmy Johnsson, who made $4.8M last year and probably is in line for at least $2-3M this year, and doesn't factor in the $4.1M of cap bonuses the Hawks are on the hook for this season.
The Hawks front office deserves endless accolades for getting a team with a market value of $70-$80M to fit into a cap that stood at $56M last year. Especially because only two of the players on the team were significantly overpaid. Campbell shouldn't be making more than $5M (instead of his $7.142M cap hit) and Huet, even at the time of his signing, shouldn't have gotten more than $3M (instead of his $5.625M cap hit). Throw in Sopel being a bit overpaid at $2.333M (instead of maybe 1.2ish?) and we're still only talking $5M or so in bad cap use. With the bonuses, that's still a team that's legitimately worth $70M, easy.
Oh, and there's that little thing about winning the first Stanley Cup in almost half a century to consider. Yep, all told, I'd say that Tallon, the Bowmans, and their colleagues did a freakin wonderful job collecting so much talent that they were laughably over the NHL Salary Cap limit when all was said and done. You should view this forced exodus, while clearly a bummer, as a big giant star on the homework assignments of the Hawks' front office.
So these guys were geniuses for putting us in this position - but did they really make all the right moves in responding to it? Well, only time will really tell. Maybe they let go of a superstar or kept a bust. Maybe these prospects they traded for won't ever develop. Maybe the guys who they created roster space for don't step up. Maybe the players they select with all their draft picks amount to nothing.
But from where we're sitting right now, I think the Bowmans have done a great job this summer. First off, as I'll detail in a post to come, they made the exact right choices as to who to keep around as the core. I loved a lot of the guys who left town this summer, but I wouldn't have chosen to keep any of them over the ones the Hawks did.
Toews, Sharp, Bolland, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Campbell and the Hammer form a group of players that could contend for the Cup for the next decade. This is a group that will dominate in all three zones, on all three units, in every aspect of the game. They are young, committed, and hungry. They are experienced, proven, and reliable. As long as you can look out onto the ice and see a collection of players like that, as a fan you've got to feel amazing about your hockey club.
I want to stress that again - with the above players skating for the Hawks next year, we should be just fine. You hear a lot of snide comments about the Hawks not having anyone left next year - retarded. I'm not sure there are more than 2-3 teams that wouldn't trade their entire roster for the Hawks' core. This club, while certainly facing some growing pains, will be a Cup favorite and a real power, if, like every one else, they can stay healthy.
Second, it sounds like the Hawks really loaded up on all levels of prospects - from draft picks to NHL-ready types, to guys a year or two away. The pipeline which produced so many of the players we saw skate with the Cup last year (or were used to acquire so many of those players) now seems to be restocked to do it all over again.
Equally important, the Hawks are in a place to capitalize on this next wave. They've managed to open up a number of roster spots on the big league club while still keeping more than enough talent around to allow the youngsters to develop as complimentary pieces without much pressure.
As the Hawks learned the hard way over the past decade, when your big league club is devoid of any real talent, it's not easy to bring up prospects and turn them into high-impact NHLers. But you bring a guy up and let him ride shotgun with Toews and Kane? You let him do the dirty work for Sharp and Hossa? You let him kill penalties next to The Hammer? You let him learn to be a shutdown forward skating with Bolland?
That is how you seamlessly transition from one set of unproven complimentary pieces to another. And let's not forget, that's all the Hawks have gotten rid of this summer. Aside Madden, Sopel and Huet, no one they let go of was anything before the 07-08 breakout year. Only put next to supreme talent in a great system and allowed the time to develop, did the likes of Buff, Versteeg, Ladd, Eager, Burish, Fraser, and Niemi become the players we know today.
So why shouldn't we be confident that the next batch of Hawks prospects will similarly emerge? Bickell, Skille, Dowell, Stalberg, Hendry, Crawford, Leddy, Beach, Vishnevskiy, Lalonde, Makarov, and Toivonen all carry the same pedigrees, the same high expectations of our now departed Cup winners.
In fact, these guys probably are much more highly anticipated then what we had in that group above. Don't forget that a lot of these guys we just got rid of, if not all of them, were brought in to little fanfare. Mid to late round picks, unheralded trades, undrafted free agents. But the Hawks organization molded them into winners, just as I have faith they'll do with the next generation.
I can't guarantee everything the Bowmans did this summer was perfect. But I can promise you that we're only in this spot because of the great work they and Tallon did before. Mistakes didn't get us here, being incredibly good at their job of accumulating talent did. And we've got the freaking Cup to prove it!
And I can tell you that I love the core group they've committed to. And that the Hawks front office has earned your benefit of the doubt in terms of the prospects they've brought in and the guys they'll give time to next season. You shouldn't be feeling uneasy about the Cup defense - you should know that this organization is stocked with the core talent to win it and have proven they know how to fold the necessary complimentary pieces into the mix.
So the next idiot you hear reference the Florida Marlins or doubt what kind of team we'll return next year, just smile and nod. And then when they go to walk away, cross check them square in the back. "O'Doyle rules!"
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Your 2009-2010 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks (#51-#88)
I'm not ready to close the book on this amazing season just yet. So I figured I'd share my take on each player who contributed something of significance to the run, all 26 of em. I'll throw em up about 5 or 6 guys at a time, going through it numerically - starting with Keith and ending with Kane.
Part 1: #2, #4, #5, #6, #7 and #8
Part 2: #10, #11, #16, #19, and #22
Part 3: #24, #25, #29, #31, and #32
Part 4: #33, #36, #37, #39, and #46
Today: #51, #55, #81, #82, and #88
#51 – Brian Campbell (D)
68 GP, 7 G, 31 A, +18, 23:13 ATOI
19 GP, 1 G, 4 A, +11, 19:35 ATOI
I really did love this team top to bottom and had a handful of guys I really loved. But there were few I was as happy to see prove their value as Campbell. Wrongly maligned by fans who misunderstood what he brought to the table and/or didn’t appreciate the value of what he did, Campbell was thought of by many as a major bust.
Look, there’s no question the Hawks overpaid. Now that the salary cap has become such a grave concern, it’s evident that Campbell is no $7M a year guy. But two things to consider. First, the Hawks gave up no assets to acquire Campbell. So a bit of that extra salary is to offset the fact that they didn’t have to trade or draft/develop the guy.
Second, for the past two seasons Campbell’s onerous contract had no negative effect on the Hawks. Just the opposite – Campbell’s presence, even at $7M per, was crucial to the late run we had two years ago and the Cup we just won. So ask yourself – would you really prefer to have a bit more cap flexibility right now or to know for sure we’ve finally won a Cup?
Because there is no way we were winning a title without a guy like Campbell. As discussed in my comments on Keith, the Hawks whole system requires that they have defensemen who can move the puck up ice. Keith was one of those, but the Hawks needed a second guy so that at almost all times there was a blueliner on the ice able to control the puck and get it into the other end.
So yeah, the Hawks should have been prescient enough to offer Campbell a 12-year deal with four $1M years at the end to bring the cap down to a fair market value $5M per. They did it a year later with Hossa and had they done it with Campbell, Niemi most certainly would be back this year. Unfortunately, at the time they signed Campbell, those kind of deals hadn't yet been established.
I'm fairly certain it started in January 2009, when the Wings added a pair of $1M years to Zetterberg's already negotiated 10 year deal to greatly improve his cap hit, so it's not like the Hawks eschewed a clearly available practice. The practice just hadn't been established yet and it's unclear if an unrestricted free agent like Campbell would have been willing to go along with such a move.
Regardless, I’m glad the Hawks made the decision to sign Campbell, even at the price they did. I’m sorry, having watched this club for two years with Campbell, there’s no question we need him on the ice. And if it cost us a bit more than was prudent to ensure we got him, so be it. And as the fates would have it, Campbell’s worth was proven when he was injured by Ovechkin and the Hawks had to struggle along without him down the stretch and to start the playoffs.
Finally, Hawks fans got to see what happens when Campbell isn’t taking his 20-25 minutes a night. How the offense stagnates, how too much is asked of Keith, how the whole blue line is over-taxed. It wasn’t totally because of his return, but it also wasn’t unrelated that Campbell being in the lineup coincided with the turn around in the Nashville series.
If you’re still not on board with what value Campbell brings or have forgotten this off-season as we struggle against the cap in part due to his salary, here are some things to know about the ginger kid. First off, he’s not a goal-scorer. When the Hawks signed Campbell, they knew this full well. He had just turned 29 and played five full seasons in the league. It was clear what you were getting, and it was a guy who only once had scored more than 6 goals in a season. So the back-to-back 7 goals years he’s put up with the Hawks have actually been better than his career average.
Second, Campbell isn’t a stud on the power play. This I was surprised about, as it was one of the things we were sold on – this guy would come into the top power play and make it all go. But while he’s fully capable with a man advantage, Campbell’s nothing special. In fact, for most of the year and in the playoffs he was working on the second unit. And he did a nice job for a solid but inconsistent power play. Yet, it’s definitely not where he’s making his paycheck.
Third, where Campbell is most definitely making his paycheck is in five-on-five hockey, when the puck is about to be broken out. He’s a solid passer who sees the ice well. But what Campbell has made his name on is as a guy who can fly up the ice and spark a rush. Whether it’s creating a break or just getting the puck deep into the other end so the possession cycle game can get going, Campbell is as masterful as about any blueliner in the game.
The guy can flat out fly. He controls the puck outstandingly and sees openings – both to skate and pass – as well as anyone. And the thing I love most about Campbell’s offensive skills – he’s fearless. Both physically and in a risk-taking sense. Campbell doesn’t mind skating a puck deep in along the boards, or dumping it down and chasing it, knowing full well he’s gonna be punished.
And Campbell doesn’t mind selling out a bit defensively to create an offensive chance or possession. That speed allows him to get back into the play without the Hawks’ opponents getting an odd-man break themselves. Which leads to the fourth thing to know about this guy – he’s a plus defender.
Sure, Campbell’s no physical presence, but he’s also not soft and doesn’t shy away from contact. He’ll mix it up with anyone and uses his veteran savvy to be in the right position and make the plays. Throw in the speed he has to close down space, break up rushes, and hang with any forward, and the Hawks are better off defensively because this guy is on the ice. Just look at the numbers: +18 in the regular season, +11 in the post-season (best on the club).
Am I saying that Campbell is better in his own end than Keith, Seabrook, or the Hammer? Nope. But he’s still definitely a real asset and his strong defensive play is one of the reasons that the Hawks are one of the stingiest defenses in the league, despite having inconsistent and unproven goalies in net all year.
So yeah, the Campbell’s contract is bad. And that means he won’t be leaving the Hawks any time soon. But while it hurts to see a lot of these other great skaters move on, I’m damn glad that this guy, as well as the other Top 4 blueliners, are gonna be with the team for a longtime.
#55 – Ben Eager (W)
60 GP, 7 G, 9 A, +9, 8:20 ATOI
18 GP, 1 G, 2 A, +2, 6:02 ATOI
While I’m definitely bummed to see Eager go, I’m excited to see what he can do on a team with a bit less depth that will afford him some more ice time. Eager was another player whose reputation wasn’t really accurate. He was no goon. If Eager never again drops the gloves, he still will have a respectably long NHL career.
He’s not a great skater, but he’s definitely a good one. He’s not great with the puck, but he is capable. And even if he’s not fighting, Eager still will effect the physical level of the game with the hits he delivers and the tenacity with which he plays. Eager is a very good forechecker who works along the boards. That board game can get a little bit better, but he’s still young (only 26) and will profit from getting more than the 6-8 minutes the Hawks could afford him.
The NHL will always have a need for a guy like Eager, because he brings that size, that physicality, but as he showed with the game-winner in Game 2, he also brings skill. He’s got a nice shot, he moves well with the puck, and he doesn’t play too dumb too often. He does need to avoid more penalties and not sell-out for hits as much, but if he can, then he’s going to be a legit third line guy.
Eager definitely has that upside. He’s got a great motor and won’t be swearing off fighting any time soon. Having a guy who can protect your players while also being an asset on the ice is a huge advantage. It allowed the Hawks to use one guy for two roster spots – both the enforcer and a fourth line energy guy. It also meant that come playoff time, Eager, unlike most enforcers, wasn’t glued to the bench, but instead could fill a key role.
So I’m not happy to see Eager in a different sweater, but I’m glad that he’ll get the chance to elevate his game and am excited to see what he does with it. And I’ll always appreciate the two great seasons he gave us on the fourth line (which, thanks in large part to him, was always one of the best in the NHL) and as an enforcer (a mildly antiquated role that still is necessary for a team as talented as the Hawks).
#81 – Marian Hossa (W)
57 GP, 24 G, 27 A, +24, 18:44 ATOI
22 GP, 3 G, 12 A, +7, 18:25 ATOI
Three goals in 22 playoff games last year. That tells you all you need to know about Marian Hossa.
The standard reaction to that line would be to think that this guy was a bust, a pariah who disappeared when it mattered and was a major hindrance to the team’s Cup run. A guy who was expected to make a major impact and didn’t even make much of a minor one.
Wrong.
The fact that the real insightful, educated Hawks fans never turned on this guy and, despite some ignorant grumblings about his failure to score, that the overall perception of the Hawks biggest ever free agent signing never turned negative is why those three goals in 22 playoff games say it all. They tell you that even when Hossa isn't scoring, the guy is doing a whole hell of a lot to make this team better.
I’m not sure you could find a more complete winger in the NHL. When the Hawks signed him, you quickly checked out his numbers and saw a guy who could fill up the net. Okay, so he’s another high-flying European sniper right? But then you heard he’s decent-sized and physical – so he’s a rare European power forward, right?
The answer to both of those is yes, but it’s only scratching the surface of the player the Hawks so skillfully added to the mix at an incredibly cheap cap number of $5.3M. Hossa is simply a guy who can do everything that you could ever ask of a winger. He’s got the size and toughness to play around the net. The speed and playmaking to be dangerous on the rush. The tenacity and body to forecheck and win battles along the boards. The stick skills and vision to fill up the net himself and set up others to do so. The defensive awareness and commitment to kill penalties and skate against the other team’s top line. The multi-dimensional offensive attack to carry the second unit of the power play.
While certainly not the leader or clutch performer that Derek Jeter is (who is?), I think the comparison is apt in the way that they’re both the rare superstar who brings a workmanlike approach to the game. Despite having gobs of talent and being as accomplished as anyone in their sport, Jeter and Hossa still are totally committed to doing all of the little things to help their team win.
When the Hawks signed Hossa, I was just happy to have him in the short term – clearly this guy could only help us win a Cup in the next few years. But now having watched him play for a half-season and a Cup run, I am pumped to have him around for the long haul. Hossa’s game will age extremely well because even as the skills go, he’ll find a way to contribute. Because his cap hit is so reasonable, Hossa might eventually be dealt. But I hope not, as this is a guy I definitely foresee being a part of winners until the day he hangs em up.
That seemed evident during the post-season, when Hossa was one of the more impactful skaters on the ice at all times, despite going though one of the worst goal-scoring slumps of his entire career. He contributed at both ends, even-strengthened and on both special teams, and in every way that a winger can.
And what a great guy to emulate for all these youngsters the Hawks will be using in the coming years. You don’t think that seeing Toews and Hossa busting their $100M humps to forecheck, work along the boards, kill penalties, and battle in their own end won’t have a major impact on the kids the Hawks throw into the lineup? You think it’ll be hard for Coach Q to get through to these rooks the importance of those things when all he has to do is show them tape of #81 and #19 on any shift they take?
What really has me excited? I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Hossa, by any stretch. Remember, not only was last year his first in the Hawks system and with the Hawks skaters, but he missed a good portion of the off-season, all of camp, and a big chunk of the start of the year. It wasn’t until the playoffs that JQ settled on Sharp as his best option as Hossa’s center. Now imagine what a fully healthy Hossa will do with Sharp on his pivot for 82 games? Or how nice it’ll be to have his regular goal-every-other-game scoring pace come next post-season?
#82 – Tomas Kopecky (W)
74 GP, 10 G, 11 A, +0, 9:29 ATOI
17 GP, 4 G, 2 A, +2, 13:34 ATOI
Another in a long line of guys I just didn’t show enough patience in. But I wasn’t alone – hell, even JQ didn’t seem to understand how he fit the team. Kopecky was bounced all over the lineup, and not because he was capable of fitting anywhere, like Versteeg. Nope, Quenneville just couldn’t find a place that Kopecky could make a meaningful contribution.
Not that there were high expectations for him, but coming over from the Wings and being reasonably young, there were some hopes that Kopecky could fill a nice complimentary role on one of the top three lines. At the very least he could help make the 4th line one of the best in the NHL, as it had been the year before.
Instead he quietly scuffled along, threw up the occasional fluke game, but mostly seemed lost. Wasn’t a shut-down defensive forward, wasn’t a great centerman, wasn’t a scorer, wasn’t a big body, wasn’t a energy/spark type, wasn’t a get dirty guy. JQ repeatedly slotted him next to Hossa in the hopes that the countrymen could find a special connection, but little ever came of it.
But then something clicked. Kopecky finished the year on the 4th line and was key to the offensive onslaught they showcased in bringing the Hawks to the regular season finish on a nice high. Unfortunately that fourth line was broken up with the Hawks early post-season struggles, and Kopecky found himself scratched for a stretch. But then he got his chance, again placed with Hossa and this time he started to make something of it.
Kopecky was nothing amazing, but a light seemed to go on. No idea what really happened, but it looked like he quit trying to make a big impact and instead just focused on doing the little things to help his linemates. He finally became that complimentary player the Hawks needed, the guy who would fly all over the ice, hunting down lose pucks, winning battles, scrapping in front of the net, playing hard in his own end.
I’m not sure if Kopecky has finally figured it out or it was just a nice flukey run, but I hope it’s the former. When turned on, he does have a nice motor and does play bigger than he is. Any offensive numbers he gets will be the product of the great play of his linemates, but Kopecky can make his mark on the stat sheet by continuing to bust his ass to facilitate the play of his teammates.
With so many of the main contributing role players gone now, Kopecky’s role will increase a ton next year, as will the pressure on him to make an impact. Here’s hoping he continues to play within himself, to become a guy who uses hard work and unending drive to help create chances for his high-scoring linemates.
#88 – Patrick Kane (W)
82 GP, 30 G, 58 A, +16, 19:12 ATOI
22 GP, 10 G, 18 A, -2, 18:58 ATOI
In 2008-2009, Kane was undersized, lazy in his own zone, and capable of disappearing for long stretches. Sure he could fill it up, create for others, and showed a knack for being clutch (9 goals in 16 playoff games, including a hat trick in the clinching game 6 of the 2nd round). But many wondered how much of Kane’s impact was style, how much was substance?
Then Toews’ influence started to take hold – Kane comes backs from a grueling off-season 20 pounds bigger with an uncanny ability to not get knocked off the puck. He comes back willing to work in all three zones and not willing to let long stretches go by without effecting the game.
And most of all, Kane comes back with a killer instinct. Sure, Kane had flashed it a bit last playoffs – that Vancouver hatty first and foremost. But this year Kane made it a regular occurrence. Early on, with Hossa out, Toews banged up, Buff not stepping up, Bolland shelved, and Sharp not scoring like he once had, it was Kane who carried the offense.
The results? Team lead in goals? Check. Team lead in assists? Check. Scoring? Check? PP goals? Check. PP assists? Check. ATOI among wingers? Check.
Just watching him out there it was clear that all of those critics who questioned his maturity, his dedication, his toughness, had sold this kid short. And never was that more clear than in the Olympics. Part of a youth-dominated squad out-talented by a number of teams in the tourney, Kane and the Americans beat the Canadians once and were within some stupid OT rules (4x4 to decide the freakin Gold freakin medal?) of the biggest US international sports accomplishment since 1980.
And who was the guy the Americans were throwing out on the ice more than any other down the stretch, when they had to have that goal? Patrick Kane. Coaches, players, analysts all said the same thing – the offense all went through Kane. Everyone on the ice was just waiting for him to do his thing. All that pressure and this 21-year old reveled in it. Kane couldn’t have looked more comfortable in the role, couldn’t have been more clear that’s who he wanted to be. And he delivered, helping create the dramatic game-tying goal in the waning seconds.
So it was absolutely no surprise to me that come Game 6, in OT, with the Cup on the line, it was Kane who single-handedly took the puck, pantsed the veteran blueliner trying to defend him, and slid a shot so smoothly into the back of the net that no one even realized it had happened.
This rundown of all of the contributors to this magical journey fitting concludes here with Kane, the guy who ended the near 50-year Cup wait. And while some may complain about the anti-climactic nature of the OT winner, I was fortunate enough to have it be as amazing as I ever could have hoped.
A lesson I learned from my Dad in baseball served me well – he said when judging flyballs as a fan, just watch the OFs, they’ll tell you right away if there’s anything to be excited about. So when the game kinda stopped and the announcers weren’t clarifying everything, I was one of the first to celebrate because I knew if you just watched the players, they’d let you know if the puck was in.
And seeing Kane skip around the behind the net and up along the boards, seeing his teammates throw off their equipment and join him, and finally, hearing the bar DJ flash an itchy trigger finger and crank Chelsea Dagger, I knew it was time to jump around and hung everybody in sight. Euphoria, chaos, and a disbelieving thrill – everything I hoped a Cup would be, finally was. Man it pumps me up and makes me smile to think of it all over again!
Thanks for reading – both this post and all season long. It’s been a hell of a run and there’s no question I enjoyed it so much more having a forum in which to share my thoughts, and readers who took the time to slog through my overly loquacious posts. I really appreciate your readership, it’s very flattering, very rewarding, and very fun.
Part 1: #2, #4, #5, #6, #7 and #8
Part 2: #10, #11, #16, #19, and #22
Part 3: #24, #25, #29, #31, and #32
Part 4: #33, #36, #37, #39, and #46
Today: #51, #55, #81, #82, and #88
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