Quarter Post

It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, so I figure you've got nothing better to do than read about 3,500 words on the Hawks. Especially with them playing so well and Hossa about to enter the mix, hopefully you're like me and looking to take in as much of the Hawks as you can right now.

So, with one fourth of the schedule in the books, here's my four-part take on some of the biggest stories and important numbers thus far:


1 - "THE GREAT SALARY CULL OF 2010"

I stole this phrasing from one of the Hawks' blogs I follow, but of course now can't remember which. I owe them credit and am sorry for not being able to give it specifically, so I'll just provide a run-down of all the blogs I frequent instead:

-ESPNChicago.com's Jesse Rogers - longtime Score guy and Blackhawks pre- and post-gamer, he provides a nice mix of lockerroom insight and typical blog commentary - something that is far too rare. Definitely worth following.

-SecondCityHockey.com - these guys are responsible for "The Committed Indian" the admirable torch-carrier for the old "Blue Line." Great mix of comedy, insight, and analytics on their website - I only just started reading them with regularity and wish I had done so sooner.

-DailyHerald.com's Tim Sassone - none of the three local papers have a true Hawks blog that provides real commentary, instead they're all content with beat writers giving you quick blurbs on the latest news from the lockerroom. That stuff is interesting and all, but I'd like to have someone taking that info a step further and providing some conjecture and analysis. Oh well, I guess there's a reason newspapers are dying. As it is, Sassone provides the most regular and informed updates of the group, so definitely worth checking in there to see about line set-ups, player health, transactions, etc. My favorite national hockey site (Yahoo's Puck Daddy) regularly links to the Herald for its Hawk news, so that should tell you something.

-ChicagoNow.com's Jay Zawaski - another longtime Score guy (producer extraordinaire), JZ gives you a lighter, casual take. I was particularly won over by his post detailing hockey etiquette for all the initiated bandwagon Hawks fans. I'm no Hawks fan snob and am glad to have the team expand beyond its cult following, but I also respect the team and the game and appreciate someone trying to help others do the same.

Ok, back to the Salary Cull. First and foremost, we can all rest easy that Kane, Toews, and Keith will be with the Hawks for a long time. I know people love to scream about how the sky is falling, but there was no way any of these guys were ever going anywhere. Toews and Kane didn't get the lifetime contracts this time, but unless one of them really hits the skids, they'll get it come the end of the impending 5-year deal.

Now we can throw away the nonsensical discussions of one of them not coming back and instead focus on the very real fact that their signings will necessitate the prematurely end of a few Hawks' careers. At one point I made the statement that these extensions wouldn't affect the make-up of the team this year, because they wouldn't go on the books this year, and thus people we're idiots for worrying about who the Hawks would have to move immediately upon signing those extensions.

The moral of the story - don't ever make declaratory statements about the NHL cap. Turns out that the cap system, among a million other things, dictates that you can only commit up to a certain amount of salary for the following season (the actual limit is complicated, but it's in the ballpark of whatever the current year's limit is). Thus, the Hawks will be affected this year by the extensions.

The most obvious move seems to be getting rid of Brent Sopel, a guy who brings little to the table and kills your cap flexibility this year and next with his $2.3M hit. As the clear 6th defenseman, he's a luxury the Hawks simply can't afford.

Unfortunately, as a mediocre (at best) defenseman making $2.3M this year and next, I doubt Sopel is a luxury many other teams can afford either. However, the Hawks might just be able to get out from under him by sweetening the deal with a prospect or simply finding a team desperate for blue line help who views Sopel's remaining deal as short and reasonable enough for a veteran defender.

Personally I hope they don't have to part with any prospect who could end up contributing at the NHL level. I'm not worried about losing a good prospect, just the reality that the Hawks roster over the next few seasons will feature a number of youngsters because the Hawks won't be able to afford anything else. So let's hope there's some other way to make the horrendously ugly and unskilled Sopel attractive to some other team.

Once Sopel's gone and the extensions are signed, then the attention will turn to who goes this off-season. You know what? I don't care right now. This team is amazingly talented and aside Sopel, I pretty much love everyone on the roster. Even you, Troy Brouwer (more on that later). My buddy and I were talking that in 20 years we'll look back at this squad and be amazed by the number of studs all on one team.

So I'm not gonna spend much more of this season worrying about the off-season - we'll have plenty of time for that. I'm just gonna enjoy this mix we have and see how far it can take us.


2. HOW GOOD ARE THEY?

It's hard to look at one section of the season and predict with confidence what the rest of the year will look like. Teams go through ups and downs, injuries take their tolls, and late season deals can change a lot. Scheduling is a factor, as is age and experience.

Still, I do think what we've seen from the Hawks is pretty damn encouraging. Yes, we've played a boatload of home games, with 12 of our 20 taking place at the UC (technically the opening night SOL in Finland was a home game as well, while the OT W the next night was a road game, but I'm not counting either in my home-away analysis).

But in those 12 home games, we've gone 10-2. That's pretty nasty, especially given that we've played a solid slate of opponents along the way. And with this great 3-0 start to the Circus Trip (again, against good opponents), the Hawks are sitting at 4-3-1 on the road, definitely respectable.

Our Power Play unit is right near the Top 10, our PK in and out of the top spot, and both our goals for and against floating around the Top 5. That's some damn impressive hockey.

But what I like most? We've done all this while facing more than our fair share of injuries. As we'll soon find out, losing Hossa has been a MAJOR blow. It's been easy to forget that as we never had him to begin with, but remember that this guy might just be better than anyone the Hawks have - Kane, Toews, Keith - all of them. Hossa has certainly accomplished more already, and while it remains to be seen how important he is to the team dynamic, strictly from a talent level of their games today, Hossa probably is the Hawks top player.

So everything we've accomplished so far has been done without our best guy. Wow. Throw in the games that Toews and Bolland (our top 2 centers) missed, as well as Eager and Burish (two of the better 4th liners in hockey) and you start to think that as good as we've been, it's not only possible, but likely that we'll be better.

Having said all that, talent on paper and delivering on the ice are two very different things. As is delivering in the regular season and doing it in pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. The Hawks seemed to show last year that they are far more like the Wings (strong in the regular season, even better in the playoffs) than the Sharks (amazing in the regular season, paper tigers in the playoffs). But one year and a few series victories aren't enough. This Hawks team needs to show it can capitalize on its absurd collection of talent and hang a post-season banner in the UC.

Honestly, given the Cull that's coming, I've changed my view from wanting to make the Finals to wanting the whole damn thing. The sports landscape is littered with players who won or contended for a title when they were young, believing they were part of a dynasty and would have that sort of success their whole careers. Far too many of them never reach the promised land again.

Yes we're young, but the time to win it all is now, and there's no guarantee our window will ever get wider, if not slam shut next year. Sports are unpredictable that way, so for 2009-2010, I'm officially in the Cup-or-Bust camp.


3. FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS FIGURE

Sure that line is a bit folksy, but it's also a nice piece of wisdom to keep in mind when dealing with the stat-infested world of today's sports.

Case in point - Brouwer and Ladd. Everyone talks about how valuable they are, how they help in so many facets of the game, how multi-talented they are. There's such an appreciation of their under-appreciated qualities that it's easy to forget their true role on the team.

While it's not an exact science, I'm a big fan of the ATOI stat (Average Time On Ice). JQ's not perfect, but he knows he's coaching for his life (because of the incredible expectations this team has engendered), so he's going to be playing the guys that give him the best chance to win as much as he possibly can. Things certainly have evolved as the year has progressed, but still, the numbers through the first 22 games have to mean something:

-Stars - Bolland (19:23), Kane (19:14), Toews (18:42), Sharp (18:02), Versteeg (17:57)

Is there any surprise to that list? Bolland's numbers are probably slightly elevated and Toews' a bit depressed due to Toews' injury. Other than that, those are clearly your Top 5 forwards and they're on the ice as such. The guy I point to is Sharp - he's making closer to $4M than the $3M a lot of the other forwards are getting, but his ice time is also more in line with that of the $6M+ guys Kane, Toews, and soon Hossa. His numbers also put him more in line with those guys, which makes you wonder if he's actually a salary value and someone the Hawks need to find a way to keep around.

-Role Players - Madden (16:49), Buff (16:40), Brouwer (15:20), Ladd (13:15)

As if we couldn't tell this from what he's done already - aside the stars, Madden is as valuable of a forward as we have. And it's not even the playoffs yet, when JQ will get all match-up happy and quick shift all over to keep Madden out against their top line. But what surprised me here is the fact that Buff is getting so much more ice time than Brouwer, when supposedly Brouwer has passed up Buff, and that Ladd is so far back of both guys, when he was supposed to be the most polished second tier guy.

In fairness, as I said, recent trends show Buff getting less time and Brouwer more, but while Brouwer has most certainly elevated his play from worthless to productive, he's not quite the all-around role player some are making him out to be. And the numbers back that up - his 6 G and 5 A are very solid, but 4 of those goals have come on the power play. Now that itself speaks to his value, as does his high hit total, but Brouwer is still just Even on the year w/o much for even strength scoring.

I'm no Buff fan, but given his -4 and the continued inconsistent play, the fact that he's still logging the same or more ice time than Brouwer says that Brouwer's got some work left to do. However, I 100% have to admit that coupled with Bolland's emergence, I've learned not to judge guys for failing to make an impact in their first years. Similarly, if a guy doesn't seem to be doing much but the coach keeps playing him, that probably means it's just a matter of time before he does.

Both Bolland and Brouwer frustrated me with their inability to make any real impact as rookies, despite significant ice time. But now both have played themselves into valuable roles on the club, with Bolland a legit scoring line center and Brouwer a legit supporting cast member. So while I'm not gonna go overboard like the hype machine that's behind Brouwer now, I will definitely say that he's established himself as a productive player and someone who could develop into a key component to a title team. I didn't think I'd ever say this, but Brouwer could be on his way to being a guy I'm very glad to have around.

Another guy who's already achieved that distinction is Ladd, but his ATOI doesn't seem to bakc that up. Remember, this is a Hawks team that's had to play a lot of garbage forwards because of all the injuries. So how has Ladd not profited from more time? Is it something as simple as Ladd not having the legs to carry more minutes? Or does he just not fit well on special teams (I noticed last year that while everyone loved him defensively, Ladd never played on the PK)? Or is Ladd not as strong as we thought after last year's break-out?

That last question will be answered this off-season, when Ladd is up to make some decent money just as the Hawks are trying to cut salary. Will Ladd be a nice value buy once we're forced to dump Sharp, Buff, Barker, etc or will he be one of the first causalities, replaced by a minimum salaried journeyman or rook?

I've always liked Ladd and found him a good mix of talents to compliment any line. But his lack of PT suggests that maybe he's not doing as much as I first thought, or that he's taking something off the table as often as he's bringing it. I'm gonna pay extra attention to him and see if I can't get a better idea of how valuable he is. While the numbers don't tell you everything, Ladd has followed up his +13 in 07-08 and +26 in 08-09 with a very pretty +7 this year. Doesn't that sound like a guy you want to both keep around and give a good deal of minutes too? It sure does to me, which makes me wonder why JQ doesn't trust him on the ice more.

Finally, a name you don't see on my TOI lists is Kopecky, who so far seems to be a disappointment. Not that the expectations were ever to great for this kid, whose never been one to fill the stat sheet. But there was some thinking that he'd elevate from a 4th liner to a legit role player. The fact that he's logging the same minutes as the Ebbetts, Frasiers, Eagers, and Bickells of the world suggests otherwise. As does Kopecky's -5, worst on the club and approached only by Buff (-4) and Sopel (-3), two of the Hawk's least impressive players.

In fact, with a $1.2m cap hit this year and next, it's possible that Kopecky could be gone, maybe even this season. Brian Bickell has drawn some pretty rave reviews during his recent call-up (cut short due to the arrival of Hossa) - isn't it possible the Hawks would prefer his $500k salary this year (and probably the same next year) given how tight the books are? Be it in an effort to sign those extensions, make a deadline trade, or make room next off-season?

Kopecky does have size, can play both wing and center, and comes from a great franchise where he won a Cup. So the hope is that he will get it figured out and be a contributor. But if not, don't be surprised if Kopecky is a salary cap causality, maybe even this year.


PAINT BY NUMBERS

So what other numbers might provide us some insight?

-How about the fact that Barker and Sopel log only around 14 minutes a night each, but count a combined $5.4M against the cap this year and next? Good defenseman get around 20 minutes a game (as Keith, Seabrook, Campbell, and HJ all do). Down at 14? You're nothing but a depth guy.

Now with 4 G and 7 A (3 and 3 on the PP), an Even plus/minus, and his youth, Barker can be justified this season as a luxury item they can afford. He's got rare offensive skills that make up for his weaknesses and allow him to be a valuable role player.

But Sopel? Give his minutes to Hendry and you won't see a reduction in anything but your salary cap. And they don't have to cut Sopel to lose his contract for cap purposes - putting him on waivers and then farming him out (if no other team claims him) removes his number from the books (although the Hawks still have to pay the bill, they don't get cap penalized for it).

Is there any way this guy is not now spending his last days in a Hawks uni?

-Kane's 23 points in 22 games suggest he's gone from really good to near-great. A point a game is the measure of a true star and given that he's rarely got to skate with either Toews or Hossa, you gotta believe his stat line will only get better. In the meantime, be equally as impressed by his +8 - the kid is really starting to become a force.

-Sharp's 6 goals in 22 games are well below the 30+ pace he's shown the past two seasons, but look deeper and you see that he's more than made up for it with 13 assists and a +7. The way he always adjusts his game to what the Hawks have needed tells me this is definitely a guy you want to keep around. Buff, Ladd, Barker, Kopecky, Sopel - that's where you cut your payroll. Not in Sharp, who's a bona fide Top 6 guy, a real leader, and as flexible as any frontline forward you'll find.

-Buff has 7 goals (2nd on the team to Kane), only 2 assists, and is a -4. I figured he'd be an absolute beast with the motivation of making Team USA, and while he's filled the net, I just think he's always going to be an enigma. He's playing well enough to still have significant trade value, so my hope is that this off-season, he's one of the first to go. In the meantime, Buff's got his work cut-out to avoid being pushed back to the 4th line when Bolland returns (as Brouwer and Ladd both look more deserving of winging Madden on the checking line).

-Keith (18 points, +8, 26:31 ATOI), Campbell (14 points, +7, 23:55 ATOI), Seabrook (10 points, +11, 23:51 ATOI), The Hammer (5 points, +6, 20:02 ATOI). Wow. Just look at those numbers. The emergence of The Hammer coupled with the stabilization of Campbell (those things are almost 100% related, by the way) has given the Hawks a Top 4 defensive unit as good as any. The difference between the Hawks team shots for and against are absurd - some of the best in the NHL by a longshot. These four guys deserve the lion's share of the credit for that.

-Toews (60.1%), Madden (57.4%), Frasier (51.9%), and Bolland (49.8%) have given the Hawks one of the best face-off groups in the NHL. All four guys are doing better than expected. Toews has long been good, but 60% is the gold standard. Madden has always been a plus in the face-off circle, but generally in the 52-55% range, not over 57%. Frasier might just be playing himself into a play-off role (something he didn't earn last year) by jumping from a face-off liability to an asset. And Bolland has shrunk the gap of his losses to the point where he's basically a wash.

Sure, the Hawks will struggle with whichever non-center (Versteeg, Sharp, Kopecky?) is forced to play out of position while Bolland is out. But JQ can limit that by having three different centers he can confidently throw into the face-off circle after every whistle. Come playoff time, winning more face-offs than you lose - especially in key situations - becomes a significant factor to success.


In all, I'm feeling damn good about where these Hawks are and where they're going. Let's hope we're soon talking about the official extensions and the equally joyful end of the Sopel era.