What a freakin way to win! Under three minutes from a near death sentence and you score an improbable soft goal. Then not even three minutes into the OT, with the crowd still at a fever pitch, you grind out the series-resetting one. Really, there's nothing better in hockey than that scenario - tying it late and then winning in sudden death. Especially when you get both goals close together, so the excitement from the first rides straight on into the thrill of the second. Throw in the crucial nature of the win and you've got about the best type of hockey game you're ever gonna see.
Awesomely, this is the second time the Hawks have done it this post-season. Game 1 of the Calgary series, with all the pressure and anticipation of the first playoff game in 7 years, the first time being favored in a series in almost a decade and a half, was similar. But last night's was even better.
The stakes were higher - a loss would have sapped any last vestige of momentum and given the Canucks ultimate confidence, plus a commanding 3-1 series lead with two games left in Canada. The opponent was better - both the Canucks as a team and Luongo as a goalie are up near the very best in the NHL right now. And the timing was even more dramatic - not even 3 minutes to go, with the Canuck fans already thinking Western Conference Finals. Ditto for the perfect timing of the second goal - crowd still rocking from the first goal, but with enough time having passed in OT to create the excruciating suspense, especially after the absurd Canucks scoring chance just moments before.
Yes my fellow Hawk fans, this was, short of clinching a series, as good as it gets. And I want to thank two men for making it so for me. Not Ladd and Havlat, or even Khabi or the architect, Tallon. Nope, I actually want to thank Tallon II, and his partner in crime, Foley II.
I'm referring to the Hawks radio team. These guys are freakin amazing, as the high compliment of comparing them to Foley and Tallon suggests. John Wiedeman does the play-by-play, and as I've mentioned here before, he sounds like a younger Foley. Not just in how he calls the game, but the sound of his voice is incredibly close to what we all know and love with Foley.
But more impressive - the guy is absolute bat-shit crazy about the Hawks. Just like you and me, he's been totally taken by the current iteration of this team. The intensity in his voice last night as the Hawks had chance after chance in an effort to save their season was incredible. It made the goals even more exciting than they already were, because as the play was developing, Wiedeman was amping up his call of the game to a perfect crescendo. You could really hear the goals coming, so you already were on the edge of your seat when he did scream "GOAL!"
And did he ever scream. This dude called both Hawks goals like you and I would - as an intense fan who was so excited and elated by what just happened. Loud, fast, high-pitched, barely comprehensible - he was celebrating the score every bit as much as we all were. It was just unreal.
Making it even better was that he wasn't alone - Troy Murray was just as insane about it. Murray, like Tallon before him, is an ex-Hawk who was both talented and had the toughness and grit that Chicago sports fans so identify with. Also like Tallon, Murray still bleeds for the Hawks, years after hanging up the skates.
Together John & Troy were celebrating the goals like crazy, babbling in pure elated excitement. And there was nothing "professional" about it. I don't mean that negatively, I mean that they were not doing a job last night. They were pursuing their passion.
Again, that is a high compliment. They aren't cheesy homers just rooting along for the Hawks. They call an intelligent game, clear and evocative, inter-mixing their full support of the Hawks' cause with necessary critical commentary. These guys know their stuff, they call it like it is, and they do so with both personality and passion for the team.
But most importantly, when the most memorable of moments are happening, these guys shed all that and just called both dramatic goals like a pair of fans. Check it out Ladd's winner for yourself:
http://caster.wgnradio.com/news/laddgoal090507.mp3
(If it plays a bit choppy, just keep trying it - the full recording will play for you.)
Just listen to Wiedeman's voice breaking - that is not intentional, that's the sound of a diehard fan in pure ecstasy. I'm glad I could even find this cut, but I wish I had a cut of the first goal and a longer recording of this one. Because in both cases, John & Troy are at that level of chaotic elation for a good while.
Which is necessary, because you know I was going ape shit right along with them. I was walking through the parking lot of the Cell, listening on a little personal AM radio, when Havlat put his in. Didn't matter that I was the only person in the parking lot with any clue as to what was happening in the Hawks game - I joined in with the celebration, yelling and dancing around as if I was right there in the UC crowd.
For the second goal, I was stopped at a red light - perfect timing to throw full concentration on the game and to just let loose when I heard the score. Yelling, high-fiving the others in my car, and honking up a storm. The whole time John & Troy were in my ear, whooping it up just the same.
So among the many things I feel lucky about with the Hawks, the radio team is certainly on the list. Especially in situations like last night. Not just that I couldn't be in front of the TV for the big plays, but because even if I could, I'd have had to listen to neutral national announcers. Sure Eddie O. is doing color, which means we get way more insight into the Hawks than a normal national analyst, but unlike on his local calls, Eddie can't be a partisan. So while I'm sure they called a solid game, it's not same as hearing your guys call the game from your perspective.
And it's in those exhilarating, insane moments like the two goals last night that you realize how much you want to hear a familiar voice evoking the exact passion and excitement that you're feeling. Last night John & Troy gave me just that.
With more and more Hawks games being pushed over to national broadcasts as the playoff go on, I'm even more grateful to have John & Troy's great calls to fall back on. Hopefully their calls sync up well with the TV, so I can mute the national guys and listen to the Hawks radio call. Maybe not this year, but some point soon the Hawks are gonna score even bigger goals than what they scored yesterday, are gonna win bigger games than what they won last night. And when that happens, I want to hear the voice-cracking passion of a Hawks diehard yelling along with me.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
Canucks Game 2 Thoughts
Damn it feels good to be right!
That's not a toot of my own horn - just me absolutely reveling in the fact that the optimism I had after Game 1 proved to be accurate. The Hawks were the far superior ice hockey team in Game 2, at least when they keep themselves out of the box. And it feels freakin great to know that the Hawks control their own destiny - I firmly believe that if they play as they should, they will make an absolutely improbable Western Conference finals.
I really think the Hawks superiority when they stay out of the box could not have been proved more clearly - the Canucks burst out to a 2-0 lead after the Hawks inexplicably opened the game with multiple horrendous penalties. But as soon as the Hawks got into an extended stretch of hockey at full strength, they absolutely buried the Canucks. Five straight unanswered goals, every single one of them well-earned. No softies, no fluke bounces - just the Hawks out-skating, out-physicalling, and out-executing the Canucks on every level, and then beating one of the best goalies in the game.
It's really this simple - six of the seven Canucks goals (ignoring the empty-netter) this series have come either on the power play or during stretches in which the Hawks have been killing off significant penalty time. But when the Hawks stay out of the box and are able to settle into their own game, the Canucks have no answer for the myriad offensive weapons they bring. And when the Hawks are bringing their offensive fury to bear, the Canucks can't get their offense going. The rare times when Vancouver does get something going, Khabi is more than up to the challenge.
I can't wait for Game 3. Back home, JQ can dictate line match-ups all game. The crowd will be absolutely electric. And the Hawks will be skating with supreme confidence. They know they can come from behind. They know they can beat Luongo consistently. And they know that if they just stay out of the box, the Canucks have no chance.
But even if the Hawks blow one of these, I'm not worried. This team has shown they can pour it on when playing on the road. Think about this stat - of their five road playoff games this year, the Hawks have scored three straight goals in four of them. Yep. Read that again - four out of their five road games, the Hawks have scored three unanswered goals in the boiler room of playoff hockey.
Game 4 against Calgary, the Hawks roar back from a 3-0 lead to put three straight up in the second period. Game 6 against Calgary, the Hawks answer the bell with three straight goals to end the Flames season. Game 1 against the Canucks, the Hawks bounce back from a slew of terrible penalties to score three straight and tie up the game. And Saturday night, the Hawks again respond to an early deficit caused by bad penalties with five straight goals to take a commanding lead in a huge game.
In my mind, only three things can happen that would keep the Hawks from moving on to the Conference Finals:
1. Luongo stands on his head. That's an absolute possibility, given how talented he is. From what we've seen in the first two games it doesn't seem likely, but goalies can turn it on anytime, so this possibility has to be respected. And when a goalie gets in the zone few things can overcome him.
2. The Hawks continue to take dumb penalties. The Hawks aren't this kind of team, so it was surprising they came out in Game 1 and made the mistakes they did, but extremely surprising they repeated them in Game 2. I'm hoping that back home, with all the momentum and confidence, as well as the lessons learned from the first two games, that they'll play a smarter game and keep themselves out of the box.
3. JQ calls off the dogs. At this point I'm fairly convinced that Queneville gets that his team plays its best hockey when he lets them attack all out. Even when they had a 5-2 lead on Saturday, the Hawks were still pushing the puck deep into the Canucks end looking for another goal. It just never seemed like they took their foot off the pedal - even as the third period got under the 10-minute mark, the Hawks remained aggressive. So unless JQ has a major moment of dumbassness, I see the Hawks keeping the pressure up. But if they don't, that opens the door for both the Canucks offense to get going (it is most certainly potent if you give them chances) and for Luongo to get into a zone.
In all, I don't see those things happening. They're not totally improbable, but my best estimate is that the odds are slightly in the Hawks favor that none of those things play out. And if that's the case, I expect the Hawks to take this series. They're playing well and they have a boatload of talent. Look back and you'll see that they've gotten production from almost everyone on the team. Top liners like Toews, Kane, Havlat, and Sharp have all carried the team for stretches. Emerging stars like Bolland, Seabrook, and Versteeg have made their mark. Grinders like Buff, Ladd, Burish, and Eager have contributed significantly. And of course, Khabi has shown himself fully capable of getting the big saves the Hawks need, when they need it most.
It might seem like I'm reading a lot into one game, but I think it's more than that. The Hawks outplayed the Canucks in Game 1, only losing because of the slew of dumb penalties. And they dominated them in Game 2. On top of that, the Hawks had more points in the season and played the Canucks evenly head-to-head. The Hawks bested a more talented and accomplished opponent in Round 1. And now, the Hawks have home ice advantage.
Add those things up, and I think the Hawks are the favorites from here on in. Now they just have to continue to play up to their potential.
That's not a toot of my own horn - just me absolutely reveling in the fact that the optimism I had after Game 1 proved to be accurate. The Hawks were the far superior ice hockey team in Game 2, at least when they keep themselves out of the box. And it feels freakin great to know that the Hawks control their own destiny - I firmly believe that if they play as they should, they will make an absolutely improbable Western Conference finals.
I really think the Hawks superiority when they stay out of the box could not have been proved more clearly - the Canucks burst out to a 2-0 lead after the Hawks inexplicably opened the game with multiple horrendous penalties. But as soon as the Hawks got into an extended stretch of hockey at full strength, they absolutely buried the Canucks. Five straight unanswered goals, every single one of them well-earned. No softies, no fluke bounces - just the Hawks out-skating, out-physicalling, and out-executing the Canucks on every level, and then beating one of the best goalies in the game.
It's really this simple - six of the seven Canucks goals (ignoring the empty-netter) this series have come either on the power play or during stretches in which the Hawks have been killing off significant penalty time. But when the Hawks stay out of the box and are able to settle into their own game, the Canucks have no answer for the myriad offensive weapons they bring. And when the Hawks are bringing their offensive fury to bear, the Canucks can't get their offense going. The rare times when Vancouver does get something going, Khabi is more than up to the challenge.
I can't wait for Game 3. Back home, JQ can dictate line match-ups all game. The crowd will be absolutely electric. And the Hawks will be skating with supreme confidence. They know they can come from behind. They know they can beat Luongo consistently. And they know that if they just stay out of the box, the Canucks have no chance.
But even if the Hawks blow one of these, I'm not worried. This team has shown they can pour it on when playing on the road. Think about this stat - of their five road playoff games this year, the Hawks have scored three straight goals in four of them. Yep. Read that again - four out of their five road games, the Hawks have scored three unanswered goals in the boiler room of playoff hockey.
Game 4 against Calgary, the Hawks roar back from a 3-0 lead to put three straight up in the second period. Game 6 against Calgary, the Hawks answer the bell with three straight goals to end the Flames season. Game 1 against the Canucks, the Hawks bounce back from a slew of terrible penalties to score three straight and tie up the game. And Saturday night, the Hawks again respond to an early deficit caused by bad penalties with five straight goals to take a commanding lead in a huge game.
In my mind, only three things can happen that would keep the Hawks from moving on to the Conference Finals:
1. Luongo stands on his head. That's an absolute possibility, given how talented he is. From what we've seen in the first two games it doesn't seem likely, but goalies can turn it on anytime, so this possibility has to be respected. And when a goalie gets in the zone few things can overcome him.
2. The Hawks continue to take dumb penalties. The Hawks aren't this kind of team, so it was surprising they came out in Game 1 and made the mistakes they did, but extremely surprising they repeated them in Game 2. I'm hoping that back home, with all the momentum and confidence, as well as the lessons learned from the first two games, that they'll play a smarter game and keep themselves out of the box.
3. JQ calls off the dogs. At this point I'm fairly convinced that Queneville gets that his team plays its best hockey when he lets them attack all out. Even when they had a 5-2 lead on Saturday, the Hawks were still pushing the puck deep into the Canucks end looking for another goal. It just never seemed like they took their foot off the pedal - even as the third period got under the 10-minute mark, the Hawks remained aggressive. So unless JQ has a major moment of dumbassness, I see the Hawks keeping the pressure up. But if they don't, that opens the door for both the Canucks offense to get going (it is most certainly potent if you give them chances) and for Luongo to get into a zone.
In all, I don't see those things happening. They're not totally improbable, but my best estimate is that the odds are slightly in the Hawks favor that none of those things play out. And if that's the case, I expect the Hawks to take this series. They're playing well and they have a boatload of talent. Look back and you'll see that they've gotten production from almost everyone on the team. Top liners like Toews, Kane, Havlat, and Sharp have all carried the team for stretches. Emerging stars like Bolland, Seabrook, and Versteeg have made their mark. Grinders like Buff, Ladd, Burish, and Eager have contributed significantly. And of course, Khabi has shown himself fully capable of getting the big saves the Hawks need, when they need it most.
It might seem like I'm reading a lot into one game, but I think it's more than that. The Hawks outplayed the Canucks in Game 1, only losing because of the slew of dumb penalties. And they dominated them in Game 2. On top of that, the Hawks had more points in the season and played the Canucks evenly head-to-head. The Hawks bested a more talented and accomplished opponent in Round 1. And now, the Hawks have home ice advantage.
Add those things up, and I think the Hawks are the favorites from here on in. Now they just have to continue to play up to their potential.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Canucks Game 1 Thoughts
Well, obviously you'd like to see the Hawks cap off that stellar comeback with a W, especially after also losing the last time they performed that feat. But all in all, I'm not too displeased with what happened.
The Hawks had room for error in these first two games - all they have to do is take one in Vancouver and they've accomplished their goal. Now that room is gone. That's all that happened last night.
At least I hope. The one fear is that the Canucks were rusty and that was the game to steal. Now they've got their legs back under them, will assert themselves in Game 2, and take a commanding lead in the series, Luongo will then steal one in Chicago, and we'll be looking back at a lossed opportunity that lead to disaster.
But while I do believe that's a distinct possibility, it's also possible that what you saw last night is what these two teams are. And in my mind, that means this series is there for the Hawks to win or lose, exactly like the last series was. It's not about the Canucks - the Hawks will dictate their own success or failure.
To that end, I do not think the Canucks won that game. Luongo was solid and they capitalized on their chances, but that wasn't what carried them to victory. Ultimately, it was that the Hawks made too many mistakes - the Hawks lost this game. Keith took a horrendous penalty at a terrible time, leading to the first goal. Campbell and HJ weren't on the same page for a moment, giving them their second goal. Keith didn't pick up his man on the third goal (seen too much of that - don't camp out in front of the net if someone is coming free right behind you). And it kills me to have to say it, but Versteeg made a terrible decision and a terrible pass to set up the winning goal.
Obviously the Canucks did a lot to help force these mistakes, but at the end of the day, I think this game came down to the Hawks making one too many mistakes to overcome.
But I'm feeling good, because if that same Canucks team comes out for Game 2, they are gonna lose. The Hawks aren't gonna take all those stupid penalties, they aren't gonna make all those defensive mistakes, and they aren't going to have to reign in their offense for half the game because they're short-handed.
My intitial impression - unless Luongo steps it up (very possible), the Hawks continue to make uncharacteristic mistakes (not likely), or the Canucks take their game up a few notches (possible), I think the Hawks take this series.
I felt the Hawks out-physicalled the Canucks, I felt they out-skated them, I felt they had much more offensive pressure, and I felt they played far superior defense. Even the goaltending was even - in fact, given how often the Hawks were killing penalties, you could say Khabi out-played Luongo.
I think the Flames series got the Hawks into the right mindset, physically. Because they had to learn quickly to take every opportunity available to hit the Flames - lest they be hit themselves - the Hawks have become very proficient at it. Last night, I felt the lessons they learned from the Flames series allowed the Hawks to out-hit the Canucks significantly. But it wasn't just the abuse they laid - the Hawks also were out-working the Canucks for pucks. Vancouver had no answer for Buff and Eager - when those guys went along the boards with the puck, the Canucks could not get them off of it. Quenneville seemed to notice also, giving those two a lot of ice time down the stretch.
It's possible the Canucks will adjust to the more physical play, just as the Hawks did last series, but I'm not sure they have a very physical team. The Hawks responded to the Flames because they had a latent aggression they were able to tap into. Not just the obvious ones like Eager, Buff, and Burish, but Toews, Versteeg, Sharp, Ladd, and the entire blueline not named Campbell all seemed to relish the chance to ramp up their physical play.
That's carried over into this series, and it's given the Hawks a decided advantage over the Canucks. If the Canucks can't match that, they're gonna have a hard time hanging with the Hawks. Because the Hawks obviously aren't just a bruising team - they also are fast and skilled. In fact, I thought the Hawks also looked faster and more sharp than the Canucks.
Not by much, but by just enough. The Canucks are quick and skilled too - no question they'll make you pay for your mistakes. But from what I saw, if the Hawks play an aggressive game but also avoid lots of big mistakes, I don't think the Canucks have the firepower to win with their offense.
The Hawks showed it last night - time and again the Canucks were on the power play, which not only gave them a boatload of chances, but also meant they were facing a very over-worked group of penalty killers. Yet the Hawks allowed only one goal in 14 penality minutes. Don't forget - those 14 penalty minutes came in the first 40 minutes of the game. All 14. And yet the Hawks killed all but one chance.
Even when the Canucks did score, it seemed it was more because of a Hawks' mistake than a good play by the Canucks. Only the first goal was fully earned - and that one has an asterik because it was a direct result of Keith's dumb penalty. But the others, while of course demanding good play by the Canucks, seemed to result more from the Hawks making mistakes. Maybe the fairest way to put it - I'd say the Canucks' play was responsible for half their scoring last night, the Hawks mistakes responsible for the other half.
So if the Canucks can't create their own scoring when the Hawks are playing almost half of the first two periods down a man, can they really have faith they're gonna score consistently the rest of the way? Once the Hawks aren't locked in the penalty box and making glaring mistakes left and right?
But my real faith probably comes down to the final two observations I had from last night. The first - the Canucks cannot stop the Hawks when they bring their pressure. Despite locking down defensively to protect their three goal lead, the Canucks could not keep the Hawks off the board. As soon as the Hawks were able to avoid the penalty box for an extended period and settle into an aggressive offensive approach, the goals just poured in.
The fact is that Hawks offense is just locked in. Only once all playoffs have they failed to register 3 goals - and that was during a game where they shot an amazing 38 times. They're getting offensive chances from all four lines and from every single skater. And last night, they looked good. It was no surprise that they got back into it - the Canucks weren't able to take them out of their game. The Hawks were making good passes, were keeping the puck in the Canucks zone, and were putting the puck on net in productive ways.
The results speak for themselves - 3 goals against a locked down defense and one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And they were earned - good offensive plays that led to effective shots and rebounds that the Hawks were able to capitalize on (big props to Kane here - he goes in and out of games, but his skill with the puck is undeniable, as most guys won't bury either of those shots).
Let's not forget also - the Hawks spent 14 of the final 34 minutes of the 1st and 2nd periods down a man. So all of that offensive production was grouped around the one time all game that the Hawks were finally able to let loose. I've harped on this a lot, but JQ seems to finally be of the same mindset - let the Hawks skaters take the game to the other team and live with the consequences of plays coming back your way. Because those rare chances for the Canucks will be dwarfed by the number of great chances we have.
I'm a bit scared JQ will see all those mistakes and try to tighten up his D a bit, be a bit more conservative so we don't see a repeat of Game 1. But that'd be a major mistake for two reasons. First, for the millionth time - the Hawks offense is so potent that if you let them go strong, with full support from the blueliners, the Canucks cannot stop them. Even if the Hawks give up a goal or even two because of their over-aggressiveness, they'll score three or four themselves.
Second, the Canucks offense is skilled enough that if you give them chances, they'll score. They showed that last night - while they aren't uber-dangerous like the Hawks, they will make you pay if you give them the opportunity. I'd much rather give them one or two opportunities on the counter-attack then sitting back passively and allowing them to work the puck into our end. They've got playmakers and guys who can bury the puck if you let them sit in our end. But if you keep them back in their end, they showed in the third that they will get taken out of their game.
However, I've got faith JQ will do the right thing and not let himself be scared off by how they got burned at the end of the game. That's because I think JQ respects, rightfully so, that the Hawks need to bring the full arsenal if they are going to consistently score on Luongo. It was clear in the third, after the Hawks tied it, that JQ didn't call off the dogs. The blueliners were still pinching and the offense was still pushing for goals as if their lives depended on it. Unfortunately Steeger made a big mistake and the Canucks capitalized.
But the end results don't always prove that a decision was right or wrong. JQ's gotta have faith that he was right bringing the pressure, and that it was the mistake of getting yourself into a tie situation late and the random bad luck of a poor decision at the wrong time that cost you, not a bad strategic plan.
My faith in JQ doing the right thing is based on Luongo, who serves as the final observation point that has given me confidence in the Hawks this series. When the Hawks went down 3-0, I still had faith they could get back in it, but I never felt like they were gonna win it. It just didn't seem to be there night. Even when they tied it, I just felt what happened was gonna happen - a fluke goal that erases their comeback.
But the one thing I really cared about was seeing the Hawks score on Luongo, and to do so a lot. So when they tied it up, even though I still felt like they'd lose (and I'm uber-optimist when it comes to my sports teams), I was happy about where they were at. Before the 3-goal barrage, I was scared that not only would we lose based on some bad plays, but that we'd struggle offensively and inflate the legend that is Luongo.
Look, Luongo is good, but he's won only ONE playoff series ever. He didn't even make it to the post-season in two of the last four years. So how good can he really be? Not to say he's not amazing and not one of the best in the game - he absolutely is. I'm just saying he's not unbeatable. All last year and the first half of this season, teams found a way to beat him enough to keep the Canucks in the bottom half of teams in the league.
But had we failed to score last night, or only slipped one garbage goal in, Luongo would have started to loom very large in that net. The pressure would have ramped up and every save would have made him look that much bigger between the pipes. It snowballs from there - it's why you see goalies stand on their heads all the time. Because once a goalie starts to look unbeatable, a vicious cycle starts where the offense gets off their game as they force things, puts bad shots on net, and then each save only furthers the frustration.
Instead, the Hawks went the opposite way - three goals in 15 minutes, their first such stretch without a penalty in the whole series. And the goals were well played, but they weren't amazing. Luongo looked very beatable on all three.
On the flipside, I thought Khabi was his equal. He wasn't super-amazing, but he was damn good and kept us in the game. If Khabi can play roughly to the same level as Luongo - and why not, Khabi is the one with the ring - then this series is decidedly in the Hawks favor.
I've got faith in the Hawks - I really think they can tighten up their play and take Game 2. From there, I like the Hawks back home. And not just because of the crowd (which will be amazing either way, but especially if we take Game 2) and the home cooking. But because of last change. The way it works in hockey, after every puck stoppage, the road team coach must put his players on the ice, then he can't change them. The home team coach sees who they put out, and then selects his own line and pairing.
This doesn't seem like much, but in playoff hockey it's huge. It's not always clear, but the coaches are constantly working to get the right guys out there against the opposing team's lines. In fact, that's been my other criticism of JQ in the playoffs - he's been FAR too worried about line match-ups on the road. This has lead to quick shifts that have taken the Hawks totally out of their game as JQ tries to ensure he's got the exact right guys out there all the time.
Look, have faith in your lines. Yes Pahlsson is a nasty shut-down center and has down well with Buff and Versteeg. But the first line is capable against any line, half because of the scoring threat they bring and half because Toews is a solid defender and Sharp a very good one. Similarly, the second line is strong defensively, with Ladd, Bolland, and Havlat all smart defenders. The 4th line is even capable, with one of your main penalty killers (Burish) and another defensive-minded type (Brouwer) out there.
So quit changing so much on the fly and allow your lines to skate full shifts and get into the flow of action. In all three games in Calgary and again last night in Vancouver the Hawks spent a lot less time in the opponents zone and had a lot fewer long, productive shifts. JQ needs to let those guys skate, let them have the opportunity to carry the puck in and establish the offense. But if he's constantly calling for changes to maximize match-ups, he's not letting them do that. Then you get back into that non-aggressive defensive hockey that limits our advantages.
Wow, the point of that rant (which has been boiling up since game 3 of last series) was actually meant to be positive - that if we can steal Game 2, we'll be back home for Games 3 and 4, where JQ doesn't have to worry about matching lines on the fly. And that advantage, coupled with our superior talent and play, can win us both games. Sure, the wild card of Luongo or just random poor play is still there, but I've got faith we'll tighten it up from here on out, and I believe Khabi is nearly as capable of owning this series as Luongo is.
Now the Hawks just have to go out and prove it.
The Hawks had room for error in these first two games - all they have to do is take one in Vancouver and they've accomplished their goal. Now that room is gone. That's all that happened last night.
At least I hope. The one fear is that the Canucks were rusty and that was the game to steal. Now they've got their legs back under them, will assert themselves in Game 2, and take a commanding lead in the series, Luongo will then steal one in Chicago, and we'll be looking back at a lossed opportunity that lead to disaster.
But while I do believe that's a distinct possibility, it's also possible that what you saw last night is what these two teams are. And in my mind, that means this series is there for the Hawks to win or lose, exactly like the last series was. It's not about the Canucks - the Hawks will dictate their own success or failure.
To that end, I do not think the Canucks won that game. Luongo was solid and they capitalized on their chances, but that wasn't what carried them to victory. Ultimately, it was that the Hawks made too many mistakes - the Hawks lost this game. Keith took a horrendous penalty at a terrible time, leading to the first goal. Campbell and HJ weren't on the same page for a moment, giving them their second goal. Keith didn't pick up his man on the third goal (seen too much of that - don't camp out in front of the net if someone is coming free right behind you). And it kills me to have to say it, but Versteeg made a terrible decision and a terrible pass to set up the winning goal.
Obviously the Canucks did a lot to help force these mistakes, but at the end of the day, I think this game came down to the Hawks making one too many mistakes to overcome.
But I'm feeling good, because if that same Canucks team comes out for Game 2, they are gonna lose. The Hawks aren't gonna take all those stupid penalties, they aren't gonna make all those defensive mistakes, and they aren't going to have to reign in their offense for half the game because they're short-handed.
My intitial impression - unless Luongo steps it up (very possible), the Hawks continue to make uncharacteristic mistakes (not likely), or the Canucks take their game up a few notches (possible), I think the Hawks take this series.
I felt the Hawks out-physicalled the Canucks, I felt they out-skated them, I felt they had much more offensive pressure, and I felt they played far superior defense. Even the goaltending was even - in fact, given how often the Hawks were killing penalties, you could say Khabi out-played Luongo.
I think the Flames series got the Hawks into the right mindset, physically. Because they had to learn quickly to take every opportunity available to hit the Flames - lest they be hit themselves - the Hawks have become very proficient at it. Last night, I felt the lessons they learned from the Flames series allowed the Hawks to out-hit the Canucks significantly. But it wasn't just the abuse they laid - the Hawks also were out-working the Canucks for pucks. Vancouver had no answer for Buff and Eager - when those guys went along the boards with the puck, the Canucks could not get them off of it. Quenneville seemed to notice also, giving those two a lot of ice time down the stretch.
It's possible the Canucks will adjust to the more physical play, just as the Hawks did last series, but I'm not sure they have a very physical team. The Hawks responded to the Flames because they had a latent aggression they were able to tap into. Not just the obvious ones like Eager, Buff, and Burish, but Toews, Versteeg, Sharp, Ladd, and the entire blueline not named Campbell all seemed to relish the chance to ramp up their physical play.
That's carried over into this series, and it's given the Hawks a decided advantage over the Canucks. If the Canucks can't match that, they're gonna have a hard time hanging with the Hawks. Because the Hawks obviously aren't just a bruising team - they also are fast and skilled. In fact, I thought the Hawks also looked faster and more sharp than the Canucks.
Not by much, but by just enough. The Canucks are quick and skilled too - no question they'll make you pay for your mistakes. But from what I saw, if the Hawks play an aggressive game but also avoid lots of big mistakes, I don't think the Canucks have the firepower to win with their offense.
The Hawks showed it last night - time and again the Canucks were on the power play, which not only gave them a boatload of chances, but also meant they were facing a very over-worked group of penalty killers. Yet the Hawks allowed only one goal in 14 penality minutes. Don't forget - those 14 penalty minutes came in the first 40 minutes of the game. All 14. And yet the Hawks killed all but one chance.
Even when the Canucks did score, it seemed it was more because of a Hawks' mistake than a good play by the Canucks. Only the first goal was fully earned - and that one has an asterik because it was a direct result of Keith's dumb penalty. But the others, while of course demanding good play by the Canucks, seemed to result more from the Hawks making mistakes. Maybe the fairest way to put it - I'd say the Canucks' play was responsible for half their scoring last night, the Hawks mistakes responsible for the other half.
So if the Canucks can't create their own scoring when the Hawks are playing almost half of the first two periods down a man, can they really have faith they're gonna score consistently the rest of the way? Once the Hawks aren't locked in the penalty box and making glaring mistakes left and right?
But my real faith probably comes down to the final two observations I had from last night. The first - the Canucks cannot stop the Hawks when they bring their pressure. Despite locking down defensively to protect their three goal lead, the Canucks could not keep the Hawks off the board. As soon as the Hawks were able to avoid the penalty box for an extended period and settle into an aggressive offensive approach, the goals just poured in.
The fact is that Hawks offense is just locked in. Only once all playoffs have they failed to register 3 goals - and that was during a game where they shot an amazing 38 times. They're getting offensive chances from all four lines and from every single skater. And last night, they looked good. It was no surprise that they got back into it - the Canucks weren't able to take them out of their game. The Hawks were making good passes, were keeping the puck in the Canucks zone, and were putting the puck on net in productive ways.
The results speak for themselves - 3 goals against a locked down defense and one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. And they were earned - good offensive plays that led to effective shots and rebounds that the Hawks were able to capitalize on (big props to Kane here - he goes in and out of games, but his skill with the puck is undeniable, as most guys won't bury either of those shots).
Let's not forget also - the Hawks spent 14 of the final 34 minutes of the 1st and 2nd periods down a man. So all of that offensive production was grouped around the one time all game that the Hawks were finally able to let loose. I've harped on this a lot, but JQ seems to finally be of the same mindset - let the Hawks skaters take the game to the other team and live with the consequences of plays coming back your way. Because those rare chances for the Canucks will be dwarfed by the number of great chances we have.
I'm a bit scared JQ will see all those mistakes and try to tighten up his D a bit, be a bit more conservative so we don't see a repeat of Game 1. But that'd be a major mistake for two reasons. First, for the millionth time - the Hawks offense is so potent that if you let them go strong, with full support from the blueliners, the Canucks cannot stop them. Even if the Hawks give up a goal or even two because of their over-aggressiveness, they'll score three or four themselves.
Second, the Canucks offense is skilled enough that if you give them chances, they'll score. They showed that last night - while they aren't uber-dangerous like the Hawks, they will make you pay if you give them the opportunity. I'd much rather give them one or two opportunities on the counter-attack then sitting back passively and allowing them to work the puck into our end. They've got playmakers and guys who can bury the puck if you let them sit in our end. But if you keep them back in their end, they showed in the third that they will get taken out of their game.
However, I've got faith JQ will do the right thing and not let himself be scared off by how they got burned at the end of the game. That's because I think JQ respects, rightfully so, that the Hawks need to bring the full arsenal if they are going to consistently score on Luongo. It was clear in the third, after the Hawks tied it, that JQ didn't call off the dogs. The blueliners were still pinching and the offense was still pushing for goals as if their lives depended on it. Unfortunately Steeger made a big mistake and the Canucks capitalized.
But the end results don't always prove that a decision was right or wrong. JQ's gotta have faith that he was right bringing the pressure, and that it was the mistake of getting yourself into a tie situation late and the random bad luck of a poor decision at the wrong time that cost you, not a bad strategic plan.
My faith in JQ doing the right thing is based on Luongo, who serves as the final observation point that has given me confidence in the Hawks this series. When the Hawks went down 3-0, I still had faith they could get back in it, but I never felt like they were gonna win it. It just didn't seem to be there night. Even when they tied it, I just felt what happened was gonna happen - a fluke goal that erases their comeback.
But the one thing I really cared about was seeing the Hawks score on Luongo, and to do so a lot. So when they tied it up, even though I still felt like they'd lose (and I'm uber-optimist when it comes to my sports teams), I was happy about where they were at. Before the 3-goal barrage, I was scared that not only would we lose based on some bad plays, but that we'd struggle offensively and inflate the legend that is Luongo.
Look, Luongo is good, but he's won only ONE playoff series ever. He didn't even make it to the post-season in two of the last four years. So how good can he really be? Not to say he's not amazing and not one of the best in the game - he absolutely is. I'm just saying he's not unbeatable. All last year and the first half of this season, teams found a way to beat him enough to keep the Canucks in the bottom half of teams in the league.
But had we failed to score last night, or only slipped one garbage goal in, Luongo would have started to loom very large in that net. The pressure would have ramped up and every save would have made him look that much bigger between the pipes. It snowballs from there - it's why you see goalies stand on their heads all the time. Because once a goalie starts to look unbeatable, a vicious cycle starts where the offense gets off their game as they force things, puts bad shots on net, and then each save only furthers the frustration.
Instead, the Hawks went the opposite way - three goals in 15 minutes, their first such stretch without a penalty in the whole series. And the goals were well played, but they weren't amazing. Luongo looked very beatable on all three.
On the flipside, I thought Khabi was his equal. He wasn't super-amazing, but he was damn good and kept us in the game. If Khabi can play roughly to the same level as Luongo - and why not, Khabi is the one with the ring - then this series is decidedly in the Hawks favor.
I've got faith in the Hawks - I really think they can tighten up their play and take Game 2. From there, I like the Hawks back home. And not just because of the crowd (which will be amazing either way, but especially if we take Game 2) and the home cooking. But because of last change. The way it works in hockey, after every puck stoppage, the road team coach must put his players on the ice, then he can't change them. The home team coach sees who they put out, and then selects his own line and pairing.
This doesn't seem like much, but in playoff hockey it's huge. It's not always clear, but the coaches are constantly working to get the right guys out there against the opposing team's lines. In fact, that's been my other criticism of JQ in the playoffs - he's been FAR too worried about line match-ups on the road. This has lead to quick shifts that have taken the Hawks totally out of their game as JQ tries to ensure he's got the exact right guys out there all the time.
Look, have faith in your lines. Yes Pahlsson is a nasty shut-down center and has down well with Buff and Versteeg. But the first line is capable against any line, half because of the scoring threat they bring and half because Toews is a solid defender and Sharp a very good one. Similarly, the second line is strong defensively, with Ladd, Bolland, and Havlat all smart defenders. The 4th line is even capable, with one of your main penalty killers (Burish) and another defensive-minded type (Brouwer) out there.
So quit changing so much on the fly and allow your lines to skate full shifts and get into the flow of action. In all three games in Calgary and again last night in Vancouver the Hawks spent a lot less time in the opponents zone and had a lot fewer long, productive shifts. JQ needs to let those guys skate, let them have the opportunity to carry the puck in and establish the offense. But if he's constantly calling for changes to maximize match-ups, he's not letting them do that. Then you get back into that non-aggressive defensive hockey that limits our advantages.
Wow, the point of that rant (which has been boiling up since game 3 of last series) was actually meant to be positive - that if we can steal Game 2, we'll be back home for Games 3 and 4, where JQ doesn't have to worry about matching lines on the fly. And that advantage, coupled with our superior talent and play, can win us both games. Sure, the wild card of Luongo or just random poor play is still there, but I've got faith we'll tighten it up from here on out, and I believe Khabi is nearly as capable of owning this series as Luongo is.
Now the Hawks just have to go out and prove it.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Hawks v Canucks - 2nd Round Series Preview
It'd be easy to be satisfied with the Hawks year as is - 4th in the West, a strong offensive and defensive performance all season, and a series win over a very capable and accomplished opponent. But as the Anaheim Ducks reminded us yet again - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS.
Sure, the Canucks had a great second half and have an outstanding goal keeper. But they aren't in a different class than the Hawks, and even if they were, as the Ducks showed, you can always outplay a team if you approach things right and get a hot netminder.
The Hawks have the talent offensively and defensively to beat the Canucks. It's just a matter of whether they can make Luongo look human and whether Khabi can meet his challenge. Both of those are reasonably likely to happen - not to say the odds are on the Hawks side, as I'd say it's too close to call - but it wouldn't be any great surprise if they did.
So, just like Round 1, this is a winnable series - remember, the Hawks actually had more standings points than the Canucks, 104 to 100. And like Round 1, it should be a battle that goes at least 6 games. Unlike Round 1, the Hawks don't have the luxury of home ice. But also unlike Round 1, the Hawks aren't playoff newbies anymore. They've gone through the fire and been found able. There is no reason to believe they cannot do so yet again.
The Canucks bring with them an interesting history. Everyone remembers the Russian Rocket Pavel Bure carrying this squad to the 1994 Cup Finals, only to lose to the Rangers in a dramatic 7-game series that pretty much marked the high point of the NHL's popularity in America. Since then, not a whole lot to report on the Canucks.
They haven't even been back to the Conference Finals, but they also haven't been bad. There was a tough 4-year stretch from 96-97 to 99-00 where they couldn't make the playoffs, but they weren't awful, and they did follow that with a 4-year string of playoff appearances before the lock-out. It's been a mixed bag since returning - no playoffs, then 105 points and a series victory, followed by another missed post-season last year, before again reaching 100 points and earning the #3 seed this season.
Offensively, Vancouver is middle of the road with a power play that is actually slightly below average. With Luongo in net, it's not surprising that they are the 7th stingiest defense in the league (tho the PK is again, middle of the road). However, before you're too impressed with our opponents - the Hawks were the 5th stingiest team, so even the Canucks supposed strength actually was in our favor during the regular season.
Against the Blues, the series was a heck of a lot closer than the sweep suggested. Besides the 3-0 spanking in Game 2, St. Louis lost each game by only a single goal. Luongo was amazing - stopping 96% of the shots in all but one of the games (in which he stopped 92%) - as the Canucks only out-shot the Blues one time.
But what does this really say about the Canucks? The Blues were a below average offensive club who was extremely young and inexperienced. They finished the year hot, but still won only half their games and gave up as many goals as they scored. Not to say the Blues were a push-over, but they also weren't one of the toughest playoff teams out there. At the very least, it suggests the Canucks still need to prove they can do it against a top tier team.
Against the Hawks this year, it's been fairly even. The Hawks won two early, the Canucks won two late. In two of the three games they saw him, the Hawks hung 4 and 3 goals on Luongo. However, twice the Canucks won by 4 goals. Each team has won at home and on the road. None of the games have gone extra time, and in fact, none have even been decided by a goal. That's something I'd imagine will change in what should be, like most NHL playoff series, a hard-fought battle, puck drop to hand shakes.
And now, the cast of characters that we'll be watching these next two weeks. A name we'll hear a ton of is Sedin, as the Canucks have two of them - Daniel and Henrik. They're twins, drafted together because they refused to play apart. In fact, the Hawks facilitated the deal that allowed the Canucks to take them both. They're approaching free agency this off-season and continue to insist that they play together. Cool shit, I say.
But more than being a novelty piece, they are highly talented. The two of them, along with Alexander Burrows, are a strong first line. Not only did they score all season long, but they're plus-minus was over 20, meaning they don't give up a lot on their end. That's important against the Hawks, who get scoring from all of their lines. And they had no trouble adjusting to the playoffs, scoring 6 goals (3 from Burrows) in 4 games against the Blues.
Only two relative weaknesses are evident - Sedin is just average on face-offs (though not terrible) and Burrows takes a lot of penalties. Although he's not very big, he racked up 150 PIM this year, most likely defending the Sedins, who are neither big nor particularly tough (although they aren't soft either). Given the scoring Burrows provides and the strength of the Hawks power play, getting him into the box should be a goal.
But really it's gonna be on Pahlsson, Versteeg, and Buff (assuming JQ rolls out the same lines) to shut them down, along, of course, with a great bit of help from Keith and Seabrook. The Canucks aren't fully reliant on this line for scoring - the 2nd line is potent and the third can't be ignored. But if the Pahlsson line and Keith-Seabrook pairing can shut these guys down, the Canucks are going to be fighting a real up-hill battle.
And it's not out of the question - they're all good scorers, but not at the level of a Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin. More importantly, Pahlsson proved two years ago that he could have their lunch, leading the Ducks to a 4-1 opening round victory over these Canucks. When you factor in how good Keith always is and how well Seabrook has been playing of late, it's very possible this match-up could tilt in the Hawks favor, tipping the whole series our way.
As I mentioned, the second line can't be ignored, and that's for two different reasons. First, all three players definitely can score and create. Second, the two most experienced forwards in the series play on this line. Third, they are a tough defensive unit for a scoring line. Finally, maybe more than any other unit, they have the ability to effect the series on both ends, both positively and negatively.
Mats Sundin came back midway through the season to make a run at a Cup with the Canucks. This after he refused to wave his no-trade clause last year when the Leafs, assured of no post-season, looked to move him. So right away I'm questioning his heart and the fact that he's been a star for almost two decades but never taken his team anywhere doesn't help. He also missed two of the four games in the Blues series and his status is uncertain for tonight.
However, there's no question Sundin's still very talented. He's also very big, although that hasn't hurt the Hawks as much this year. And he's got two talented wingers on his sides. Pavol Demitra has been around almost as long as Sundin and also continues to be a talented player with questions. He was known to disappear in big situations in the past and hasn't won any of his last five playoff series. Still, he's capable, meaning he could just pick this series to make his mark.
But the most interesting player on the line is Ryan Kesler, a Selke finalist. The Selke is my favorite trophy because it rewards one of the hardest skills to gauge - great defense out of a forward. Kesler has been a tremendous all-around player this year, scoring goals, winning face-offs, creating for his teammates, and of course, locking down the other team. He'll be leaned on to play that great defense, as again, to beat the Hawks you've got to defend from all four lines.
In all, this line can score, it's got experience, and is solid defensively. They also are nasty on the face-offs, as all three players consistently win around 55% of their draws. But they're old and have questionable histories, or in the case of Kesler, young and still a bit unproven.
The third line is also a bit of a question mark - there's talent, but it's young and inexperienced. Kyle Wellwood is small but talented, yet not a traditional play-making center, racking up only single-digit assists this year. However, he scored a good amount of goals for a third liner and is real strong in the face-off circle. Mason Ramond is also small and in only his second year, but has shown himself decently capable, though nothing special. Steve Bernier brings the size that the other two lack, but also is young, capable, but not really amazing.
This line intrigues only because it's hard to know what they'll do in the playoffs. It's a common story for players or whole lines to come out of nowhere to contribute. While this line isn't dangerous, they can definitely score. They're young so they've got some legs to them. But they also aren't proven nor the greatest players. I'll be interested to see what role they play.
The Canucks 4th line doesn't bring a whole lot to the table, but they also don't hurt them too much. They won't be on the ice much, they won't give up much for goals, but they also aren't likely to contribute anything. Darcy Hordichuk is the only bruiser - Ryan Johnson and Rick Rypien are sort of filler. Rypien is still young and didn't play much this year - I think he was out with an injury - so he might have some talent. But it seems like they won't be a major factor, unlike the Hawks' 4th, who can both score and change the tone of the game.
Finally, if Sundin can't go or another Canuck skater goes down, Jannik Hansen proved to be the fill-in, skating in two games last series. He's not terrible, but also not a major difference maker, so losing Sundin would be a significant step down.
The Canucks blue line has the nice advantage of playing in front of one of the biggest and best goaltenders in the game. It features three long-proven vets, two strong young up-and-comers, and a young big bruiser. There were some injury concerns in the last round, but the long layoff earned by the sweep has allowed what supposedly has been enough time to get everyone back up to full speed.
Veteran Willie Mitchell is a pure stay-at-home type who makes his money stopping the other team at even strength and on the penality kill. He didn't miss any time in the first round, but he was pretty apparently injured. Given the Hawks outstanding skaters, the Canucks need Mitchell to continue to log a ton of minutes.
Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo have been around for a while and bring strong two-way play to the Vancouver blueline. Salo missed two games in the first series, necessitating time by the respectable Ossi Vaananen, but should be ready to go for Game 1. Between Mitchell, Ohlund, and Salo, they've strung together 30 years of NHL experience.
But the Vancouver blueline isn't without some capable youth, as Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler have logged a lot of minutes and been busy contributing to the offense with good shots and strong passing. The Blues didn't have the offense to test these youngsters like the Hawks do - it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Finally, Shane O'Brien is young, big, and has no issue with physicality within or beyond the rules. He racked up 196 PIM but doesn't log the big ice time as the five other defenders do.
In general, the Hawks need to respect that this team can score or set-up plays from the point, as every Vancouver blueliner is capable offensively. Especially when combined with how big Luongo is, it's also clear the Hawks won't have a lot of space to work - the Canucks defensemen are very big guys. However, that also suggests they aren't the fastest, which means the Hawks highly mobile offense could give them fits. Not to say they're slow, but at that size, can they keep up with all the speed the Hawks bring? Or will they try to combat that in much the same way the Flames did - by being overly physical?
All signs point to that being the case, though as the Flames learned, that's no cure all. The Hawks are fast and offensively gifted, but they aren't soft by any means. They've got plenty of tough guys and far from minding when a game gets tough, these feisty kids seem to relish it. It's always a challenge to be both physical and effective, but the Hawks learned pretty quickly how to ramp up their aggressiveness for playoff hockey.
Finally, below is my best guess at the Canucks special teams. As I mentioned, their power play is good, but not unstoppable. And their penalty kill is capable, but can be beaten. In my mind it really doesn't matter whether we're even, down, or up one skater - it's all about taking the game to the Canucks.
In the last series, the Hawks had to be aggressive in their philosophy in order to keep the Flames great offense at bay and take advantage of their porous defense. In this series, the reasons are totally different, but the approach needs to be the same. The Canucks offense is good, but nothing amazing. If you take the game to them, they don't have the pure fire power to get back into it. On the other hand, the Canucks defense and goaltending is very strong, meaning that if you aren't giving yourself every chance possible to score, you're gonna have a hard time getting the goals needed to win.
JQ needs to continue to get his blueliners pushing forward and his skates focused wholly on getting the puck deep into the Canuck end and keeping it there. He has to have faith in his defense's and forward's ability to cover mistakes, and ultimately for Khabi to clean up after all of them. Don't sit back and turn a solid Canuck offense into a highly potent one.
It would seem with the imposing figure of Luongo hanging over this series, JQ would know that he has to throw everything he can forward in an effort to break through offensively. Let's hope it's the case, because I really believe the Hawks have everything it takes to win this series and reach an improbable conference finals. But that will only happen if they approach the game aggressively.
Sure, the Canucks had a great second half and have an outstanding goal keeper. But they aren't in a different class than the Hawks, and even if they were, as the Ducks showed, you can always outplay a team if you approach things right and get a hot netminder.
The Hawks have the talent offensively and defensively to beat the Canucks. It's just a matter of whether they can make Luongo look human and whether Khabi can meet his challenge. Both of those are reasonably likely to happen - not to say the odds are on the Hawks side, as I'd say it's too close to call - but it wouldn't be any great surprise if they did.
So, just like Round 1, this is a winnable series - remember, the Hawks actually had more standings points than the Canucks, 104 to 100. And like Round 1, it should be a battle that goes at least 6 games. Unlike Round 1, the Hawks don't have the luxury of home ice. But also unlike Round 1, the Hawks aren't playoff newbies anymore. They've gone through the fire and been found able. There is no reason to believe they cannot do so yet again.
The Canucks bring with them an interesting history. Everyone remembers the Russian Rocket Pavel Bure carrying this squad to the 1994 Cup Finals, only to lose to the Rangers in a dramatic 7-game series that pretty much marked the high point of the NHL's popularity in America. Since then, not a whole lot to report on the Canucks.
They haven't even been back to the Conference Finals, but they also haven't been bad. There was a tough 4-year stretch from 96-97 to 99-00 where they couldn't make the playoffs, but they weren't awful, and they did follow that with a 4-year string of playoff appearances before the lock-out. It's been a mixed bag since returning - no playoffs, then 105 points and a series victory, followed by another missed post-season last year, before again reaching 100 points and earning the #3 seed this season.
Offensively, Vancouver is middle of the road with a power play that is actually slightly below average. With Luongo in net, it's not surprising that they are the 7th stingiest defense in the league (tho the PK is again, middle of the road). However, before you're too impressed with our opponents - the Hawks were the 5th stingiest team, so even the Canucks supposed strength actually was in our favor during the regular season.
Against the Blues, the series was a heck of a lot closer than the sweep suggested. Besides the 3-0 spanking in Game 2, St. Louis lost each game by only a single goal. Luongo was amazing - stopping 96% of the shots in all but one of the games (in which he stopped 92%) - as the Canucks only out-shot the Blues one time.
But what does this really say about the Canucks? The Blues were a below average offensive club who was extremely young and inexperienced. They finished the year hot, but still won only half their games and gave up as many goals as they scored. Not to say the Blues were a push-over, but they also weren't one of the toughest playoff teams out there. At the very least, it suggests the Canucks still need to prove they can do it against a top tier team.
Against the Hawks this year, it's been fairly even. The Hawks won two early, the Canucks won two late. In two of the three games they saw him, the Hawks hung 4 and 3 goals on Luongo. However, twice the Canucks won by 4 goals. Each team has won at home and on the road. None of the games have gone extra time, and in fact, none have even been decided by a goal. That's something I'd imagine will change in what should be, like most NHL playoff series, a hard-fought battle, puck drop to hand shakes.
And now, the cast of characters that we'll be watching these next two weeks. A name we'll hear a ton of is Sedin, as the Canucks have two of them - Daniel and Henrik. They're twins, drafted together because they refused to play apart. In fact, the Hawks facilitated the deal that allowed the Canucks to take them both. They're approaching free agency this off-season and continue to insist that they play together. Cool shit, I say.
But more than being a novelty piece, they are highly talented. The two of them, along with Alexander Burrows, are a strong first line. Not only did they score all season long, but they're plus-minus was over 20, meaning they don't give up a lot on their end. That's important against the Hawks, who get scoring from all of their lines. And they had no trouble adjusting to the playoffs, scoring 6 goals (3 from Burrows) in 4 games against the Blues.
Only two relative weaknesses are evident - Sedin is just average on face-offs (though not terrible) and Burrows takes a lot of penalties. Although he's not very big, he racked up 150 PIM this year, most likely defending the Sedins, who are neither big nor particularly tough (although they aren't soft either). Given the scoring Burrows provides and the strength of the Hawks power play, getting him into the box should be a goal.
But really it's gonna be on Pahlsson, Versteeg, and Buff (assuming JQ rolls out the same lines) to shut them down, along, of course, with a great bit of help from Keith and Seabrook. The Canucks aren't fully reliant on this line for scoring - the 2nd line is potent and the third can't be ignored. But if the Pahlsson line and Keith-Seabrook pairing can shut these guys down, the Canucks are going to be fighting a real up-hill battle.
And it's not out of the question - they're all good scorers, but not at the level of a Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin. More importantly, Pahlsson proved two years ago that he could have their lunch, leading the Ducks to a 4-1 opening round victory over these Canucks. When you factor in how good Keith always is and how well Seabrook has been playing of late, it's very possible this match-up could tilt in the Hawks favor, tipping the whole series our way.
As I mentioned, the second line can't be ignored, and that's for two different reasons. First, all three players definitely can score and create. Second, the two most experienced forwards in the series play on this line. Third, they are a tough defensive unit for a scoring line. Finally, maybe more than any other unit, they have the ability to effect the series on both ends, both positively and negatively.
Mats Sundin came back midway through the season to make a run at a Cup with the Canucks. This after he refused to wave his no-trade clause last year when the Leafs, assured of no post-season, looked to move him. So right away I'm questioning his heart and the fact that he's been a star for almost two decades but never taken his team anywhere doesn't help. He also missed two of the four games in the Blues series and his status is uncertain for tonight.
However, there's no question Sundin's still very talented. He's also very big, although that hasn't hurt the Hawks as much this year. And he's got two talented wingers on his sides. Pavol Demitra has been around almost as long as Sundin and also continues to be a talented player with questions. He was known to disappear in big situations in the past and hasn't won any of his last five playoff series. Still, he's capable, meaning he could just pick this series to make his mark.
But the most interesting player on the line is Ryan Kesler, a Selke finalist. The Selke is my favorite trophy because it rewards one of the hardest skills to gauge - great defense out of a forward. Kesler has been a tremendous all-around player this year, scoring goals, winning face-offs, creating for his teammates, and of course, locking down the other team. He'll be leaned on to play that great defense, as again, to beat the Hawks you've got to defend from all four lines.
In all, this line can score, it's got experience, and is solid defensively. They also are nasty on the face-offs, as all three players consistently win around 55% of their draws. But they're old and have questionable histories, or in the case of Kesler, young and still a bit unproven.
The third line is also a bit of a question mark - there's talent, but it's young and inexperienced. Kyle Wellwood is small but talented, yet not a traditional play-making center, racking up only single-digit assists this year. However, he scored a good amount of goals for a third liner and is real strong in the face-off circle. Mason Ramond is also small and in only his second year, but has shown himself decently capable, though nothing special. Steve Bernier brings the size that the other two lack, but also is young, capable, but not really amazing.
This line intrigues only because it's hard to know what they'll do in the playoffs. It's a common story for players or whole lines to come out of nowhere to contribute. While this line isn't dangerous, they can definitely score. They're young so they've got some legs to them. But they also aren't proven nor the greatest players. I'll be interested to see what role they play.
The Canucks 4th line doesn't bring a whole lot to the table, but they also don't hurt them too much. They won't be on the ice much, they won't give up much for goals, but they also aren't likely to contribute anything. Darcy Hordichuk is the only bruiser - Ryan Johnson and Rick Rypien are sort of filler. Rypien is still young and didn't play much this year - I think he was out with an injury - so he might have some talent. But it seems like they won't be a major factor, unlike the Hawks' 4th, who can both score and change the tone of the game.
Finally, if Sundin can't go or another Canuck skater goes down, Jannik Hansen proved to be the fill-in, skating in two games last series. He's not terrible, but also not a major difference maker, so losing Sundin would be a significant step down.
The Canucks blue line has the nice advantage of playing in front of one of the biggest and best goaltenders in the game. It features three long-proven vets, two strong young up-and-comers, and a young big bruiser. There were some injury concerns in the last round, but the long layoff earned by the sweep has allowed what supposedly has been enough time to get everyone back up to full speed.
Veteran Willie Mitchell is a pure stay-at-home type who makes his money stopping the other team at even strength and on the penality kill. He didn't miss any time in the first round, but he was pretty apparently injured. Given the Hawks outstanding skaters, the Canucks need Mitchell to continue to log a ton of minutes.
Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo have been around for a while and bring strong two-way play to the Vancouver blueline. Salo missed two games in the first series, necessitating time by the respectable Ossi Vaananen, but should be ready to go for Game 1. Between Mitchell, Ohlund, and Salo, they've strung together 30 years of NHL experience.
But the Vancouver blueline isn't without some capable youth, as Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler have logged a lot of minutes and been busy contributing to the offense with good shots and strong passing. The Blues didn't have the offense to test these youngsters like the Hawks do - it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Finally, Shane O'Brien is young, big, and has no issue with physicality within or beyond the rules. He racked up 196 PIM but doesn't log the big ice time as the five other defenders do.
In general, the Hawks need to respect that this team can score or set-up plays from the point, as every Vancouver blueliner is capable offensively. Especially when combined with how big Luongo is, it's also clear the Hawks won't have a lot of space to work - the Canucks defensemen are very big guys. However, that also suggests they aren't the fastest, which means the Hawks highly mobile offense could give them fits. Not to say they're slow, but at that size, can they keep up with all the speed the Hawks bring? Or will they try to combat that in much the same way the Flames did - by being overly physical?
All signs point to that being the case, though as the Flames learned, that's no cure all. The Hawks are fast and offensively gifted, but they aren't soft by any means. They've got plenty of tough guys and far from minding when a game gets tough, these feisty kids seem to relish it. It's always a challenge to be both physical and effective, but the Hawks learned pretty quickly how to ramp up their aggressiveness for playoff hockey.
Finally, below is my best guess at the Canucks special teams. As I mentioned, their power play is good, but not unstoppable. And their penalty kill is capable, but can be beaten. In my mind it really doesn't matter whether we're even, down, or up one skater - it's all about taking the game to the Canucks.
In the last series, the Hawks had to be aggressive in their philosophy in order to keep the Flames great offense at bay and take advantage of their porous defense. In this series, the reasons are totally different, but the approach needs to be the same. The Canucks offense is good, but nothing amazing. If you take the game to them, they don't have the pure fire power to get back into it. On the other hand, the Canucks defense and goaltending is very strong, meaning that if you aren't giving yourself every chance possible to score, you're gonna have a hard time getting the goals needed to win.
JQ needs to continue to get his blueliners pushing forward and his skates focused wholly on getting the puck deep into the Canuck end and keeping it there. He has to have faith in his defense's and forward's ability to cover mistakes, and ultimately for Khabi to clean up after all of them. Don't sit back and turn a solid Canuck offense into a highly potent one.
It would seem with the imposing figure of Luongo hanging over this series, JQ would know that he has to throw everything he can forward in an effort to break through offensively. Let's hope it's the case, because I really believe the Hawks have everything it takes to win this series and reach an improbable conference finals. But that will only happen if they approach the game aggressively.
Monday, April 27, 2009
That's More Like It!
If you've gone to all three Hawks home playoff games this year, then you've gotten to see all three types of wins - the dramatic come from behind OT W, the nail-biting defense of a 1-goal lead, and the offensive explosion.
Yes my friends, hockey is most definitely back in Chitown.
I tore JQ a new one after the pitiful performance in the third period of Game 4, and rightfully so. After an amazing come back, he had his team playing completely passively and it cost them a chance to put the series away.
But JQ made up for it, to a large extent, with the way he had the team playing in Game 5. There was no question from the first whistle that this team was going to be aggressive. I'm not talking about working hard and delivering hits. They've been doing that all series. I'm talking about the strategy - pushing forward, pinching defensemen, bringing the game to the Flames rather than sitting back and letting them take it to us.
The results were beyond ridiculous - a 15-3 shot total in the first period. A 5-1 lead midway through the second. And then, when the Flames were given one last longshot, the Hawks surgically killed off a minute thirty of 5-on-3. The skaters were brilliant in all facets. After two poor outings from Khabi, the Hawks skaters took it upon themselves to win the game. They scored a ton, kept all the pressure on the other end, and didn't even allow Khabi to see much for shots. And when Khabi let in a total softy, the Hawks roared back with two goals to get him off the hook.
Their passing was beautiful, their skating sharp, their movements crisps, their positioning perfect, the teamwork ideal. Everything about the blueliners and forwards was just right.
I even found myself appreciating the work of Buff and Brouwer, my two favorite whipping boys.
It made me realize that in a lot of the series, they've actually held their own. It's a great example of how important it is to put guys in a position where they can succeed. Asked to skate with gifted offensive players most of the year, Buff looked bad twice for every time he did something good.
But in the playoffs he's been put on a defensive line with Pahlsson and Versteeg, and has thrived. He doesn't have to worry about capitalizing on scoring chances set up by Kane or Havlat or Toews. He just has to be physical and be a strong defensive forward, something his huge frame and history as a blueliner make him well-suited for. He's still overpaid and needs to go, but if that doesn't happen, at least we know how to utilize him now. I really wouldn't mind seeing Buff skate on some sort of pure checking line next year - I think it could allow him to be a valuable piece for the Hawks again.
Same story with Brouwer. I hated that he was playing up on the top scoring lines, bringing nothing to the table. Eventually he realized his role was to be a grinder, but he just hadn't developed the skills to do it right, at least not along the top scorers. But put back on the 4th line, he's been able to focus completely on grinding and his lack of offensive skills hasn't been an issue. Whether the line is better with Brouwer or Frasier isn't clear, but in either case, it's been a very productive line for what you'd want out of your energy guys.
Final thought before tonight's game - JQ has a chance to shine or shit the bed. If he has the Hawks playing aggressive like they were in Game 5, then this series will be over. But if he pulls back on the reigns in some misguided attempt to handle the pressure of being in front of the Flames crowd, then he's an idiot. And this goes for the whole game - one of the things I appreciated about Game 5 was that the Hawks continued to push forward hard even after they had established a nice lead. They never took their foots off the Flames' throats - never were content to sit back until the game was clearly out of reach.
The same thing has to happen tonight. The Hawks need to push those defensemen up and work everything hard and deep into the Flames zone. Do this and they'll get the lead - the Flames just can't handle the Hawks pressure. And once they have that lead - KEEP IT UP! JQ better have them forcing the issue the whole time.
I don't want to see them go into a "playing not to lose" formation early in the third period of a close game, or even in the second if they've got a solid lead. The Flames are too good, especially at home with their season on the line, to hope you can weather their offensive storm. That's playing to their strengths. Instead, force the Flames to worry about how their gonna keep the Hawks out of the net, and then they'll be too bogged down to mount any sort of comeback. Until we reach the final few minutes, when it'll be clear the Flames are throwing everything at you and you have to just batten down the hatches, I want the Hawks skaters taking it to them.
If they do that, I think we can see a repeat of Game 5. Might not be as obviously dominating, but I think the Hawks can get an early lead, continue the pressure to grow that lead, and then finally take advantage of how aggressive the Flames will have to be and blow it wide open.
But if the Hawks aren't aggressive, I fear the Flames will ride the home crowd and backs-against-the-wall attitude to force a Game 7. I've got a busy week already - I don't want a Game 7.
Yes my friends, hockey is most definitely back in Chitown.
I tore JQ a new one after the pitiful performance in the third period of Game 4, and rightfully so. After an amazing come back, he had his team playing completely passively and it cost them a chance to put the series away.
But JQ made up for it, to a large extent, with the way he had the team playing in Game 5. There was no question from the first whistle that this team was going to be aggressive. I'm not talking about working hard and delivering hits. They've been doing that all series. I'm talking about the strategy - pushing forward, pinching defensemen, bringing the game to the Flames rather than sitting back and letting them take it to us.
The results were beyond ridiculous - a 15-3 shot total in the first period. A 5-1 lead midway through the second. And then, when the Flames were given one last longshot, the Hawks surgically killed off a minute thirty of 5-on-3. The skaters were brilliant in all facets. After two poor outings from Khabi, the Hawks skaters took it upon themselves to win the game. They scored a ton, kept all the pressure on the other end, and didn't even allow Khabi to see much for shots. And when Khabi let in a total softy, the Hawks roared back with two goals to get him off the hook.
Their passing was beautiful, their skating sharp, their movements crisps, their positioning perfect, the teamwork ideal. Everything about the blueliners and forwards was just right.
I even found myself appreciating the work of Buff and Brouwer, my two favorite whipping boys.
It made me realize that in a lot of the series, they've actually held their own. It's a great example of how important it is to put guys in a position where they can succeed. Asked to skate with gifted offensive players most of the year, Buff looked bad twice for every time he did something good.
But in the playoffs he's been put on a defensive line with Pahlsson and Versteeg, and has thrived. He doesn't have to worry about capitalizing on scoring chances set up by Kane or Havlat or Toews. He just has to be physical and be a strong defensive forward, something his huge frame and history as a blueliner make him well-suited for. He's still overpaid and needs to go, but if that doesn't happen, at least we know how to utilize him now. I really wouldn't mind seeing Buff skate on some sort of pure checking line next year - I think it could allow him to be a valuable piece for the Hawks again.
Same story with Brouwer. I hated that he was playing up on the top scoring lines, bringing nothing to the table. Eventually he realized his role was to be a grinder, but he just hadn't developed the skills to do it right, at least not along the top scorers. But put back on the 4th line, he's been able to focus completely on grinding and his lack of offensive skills hasn't been an issue. Whether the line is better with Brouwer or Frasier isn't clear, but in either case, it's been a very productive line for what you'd want out of your energy guys.
Final thought before tonight's game - JQ has a chance to shine or shit the bed. If he has the Hawks playing aggressive like they were in Game 5, then this series will be over. But if he pulls back on the reigns in some misguided attempt to handle the pressure of being in front of the Flames crowd, then he's an idiot. And this goes for the whole game - one of the things I appreciated about Game 5 was that the Hawks continued to push forward hard even after they had established a nice lead. They never took their foots off the Flames' throats - never were content to sit back until the game was clearly out of reach.
The same thing has to happen tonight. The Hawks need to push those defensemen up and work everything hard and deep into the Flames zone. Do this and they'll get the lead - the Flames just can't handle the Hawks pressure. And once they have that lead - KEEP IT UP! JQ better have them forcing the issue the whole time.
I don't want to see them go into a "playing not to lose" formation early in the third period of a close game, or even in the second if they've got a solid lead. The Flames are too good, especially at home with their season on the line, to hope you can weather their offensive storm. That's playing to their strengths. Instead, force the Flames to worry about how their gonna keep the Hawks out of the net, and then they'll be too bogged down to mount any sort of comeback. Until we reach the final few minutes, when it'll be clear the Flames are throwing everything at you and you have to just batten down the hatches, I want the Hawks skaters taking it to them.
If they do that, I think we can see a repeat of Game 5. Might not be as obviously dominating, but I think the Hawks can get an early lead, continue the pressure to grow that lead, and then finally take advantage of how aggressive the Flames will have to be and blow it wide open.
But if the Hawks aren't aggressive, I fear the Flames will ride the home crowd and backs-against-the-wall attitude to force a Game 7. I've got a busy week already - I don't want a Game 7.
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