So the ESPN "Experts" came out with their picks today. I put experts in quotes because these guys are tools - of the six guys picking eight different series (so 48 total picks), they chose a whopping 4 upsets - and all of them were the #6 Canes beating the #3 Devils (one of the colder teams in the NHL ending the season).
Really?!? How long have you been following the NHL, guys? The playoffs never go to form, with even #1 seeds losing in the first round with regularity. You're getting paid to analyze, write, and talk about hockey - what we call a dream job - how about putting in a bit of actual effort and insight, having a set, and trying to predict one of the many upsets that will happen in the first?
Not one of you sees the red hot Blues taking down a very a good, but certainly not great Canucks team? The Flyers have no chance against the Penguins, despite their near identical records? Boston or Washington aren't a little bit vulnerable? The Wings and Sharks couldn't be caught looking forward to their "inevitable" Western Conference Finals showdown?
And closest to home - all six of you are convinced the playoff-experience filled Flames, headed by NHL playoff coaching beast Mike Keenan, are going to lose to the barely-not-teenaged Hawks and their mediocre playoff performing coach?
Hey, I wish nothing more than these guys to be right and for the most part, I actually enjoy ESPN's team of hockey analysts, even if none of them answer my emails (Tim Kirkjian and Jason Stark they will never be!). But the fans deserve more - they want to have an inkling of the upsets to watch for and to know why they should shake out that way. It's the "experts" job to elucidate those, not just toe the obvious line of the better regular season teams winning each match-up. Way to earn those paychecks!
As for the Hawks and Flames, I don't think it's as clear cut as I wish it were. Sure, the Hawks have owned the Flames, the Flames are fairly banged up, and the Hawks seem to be hitting their stride at the right time (especially in goal). But the Flames have a great coach and a boatload of playoff experience, while the Hawks do not have either.
Not that JQ is bad, but he really hasn't earned his stripes yet. I think he's reached one conference finals in the 11 years he's gone to the post-season - sorry, that ain't gonna cut it. It's one of the reasons I was opposed to his hiring in the first place - because the Stanley Cup is all that matters, and JQ hasn't show any more ability than Savard to get his team there.
Having said that, JQ has done a fine job with the squad this year and maybe he just needed the right team, which he now has in the Hawks. Not to say they'll go the Cup this year, but maybe they'll take the necessary steps this season to get there in the next year or two.
To me, the necessary steps are getting to the playoffs, winning a post-season series, and competing in the second round. The Hawks have accomplished that first step, now they're ready for the second. And I see three keys to the Hawks making it happen:
1. Khabi not getting outplayed by Kiprusoff. Kipper has been very mediocre while Khabi, outside of a rough stretch after his injury, has been outstanding. So you'd think this one would be a pretty good bet, especially because Khabi just needs to be Kipper's equal, not better. I think the Hawks are a more well-rounded team, so as long as the Flames don't get a significant advantage out of their goal play, the Hawks should have a really good shot at taking the series.
But you never know with goalies - Khabi might let in a soft one early and get out of his comfort zone. Or Kipper might face 40 shots and stop them all in Game 1, riding that confidence to a stellar series. Goalie play is a fickle mistress, and like all women, is wholly unpredictable (haha - just kidding my female readers!).
(no, I'm not)
(haha, again, kidding!)
(no...)
2. Pahlsson doing the job he was brought in for. There's no question the Flames have had success this year because of their offense, averaging over a goal a game thanks to six different 20-goal scorers. The Flames are similar to the Hawks in that they get that scoring from all four lines, but even more than the Hawks, the Flames rely on one line to really carry them. Iginla is one of the best players in hockey, while Cammalleri's 39 goals were third in the entire Western Conference. With the mid-season addition of Olli Jokinen, a consistent 30+ goal scorer, the Flames have a fearsome threesome on their #1 line.
So is Pahlsson and whomever JQ matches with him up to that stiff challenge? It's a question because we're not sure how recovered Pahlsson is from his bout with Mono, how effective he can be on this team, and who JQ will pair with him.
If Sharp is healthy and near 100%, I'd put him and Versteeg together with Pahlsson and would have every confidence they could keep the Jokinen-Iginla-Cammalleri line in check through a combination of good defensive work and an application of pressure in the other end.
I don't think the Hawks can hope to shut this line down (as they did in the regular season), but if they can keep them from going off, I like our chances.
3. Keep the offensive pressure on in the form of high shot counts every game. My biggest fear with the Hawks inexperience is that the veteran-laden Flames squad will be able to take the Hawks scorers out of their game to the point where they're not even getting shots. If the Hawks aren't getting shots, not only will their offense obviously suffer, but then the potent Flames offense will be even more free to take the pressure to the Hawks.
Especially given the letdowns we've seen with the Hawks defense when they aren't going well, it's crucial that they not allow the Flames offense to get up to full speed. Keeping the shots on Kipper will keep the Flames thinking defensively and thus buy the Hawks blueliners and Khabi a bit more room to protect their own end.
Already done most of the preliminary research on the Flames for my big preview post - look for it late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Friday, April 10, 2009
New Line Thoughts
It's probably a pretty good guess that with the success the Toews-Kane-Havlat has had of late, that those three will skate together in the playoffs. It's not for sure, especially if Sharp is out, because loading all of your scoring onto a single line is dangerous if the other team can roll out a solid defensive line that can nuetralize you. However, as the good people at the Committed Indian pointed out in their Wednesday night edition - how do you break up a line that is having that much success?
Further complicating the Hawks line situation is Sharp - it sounds like he's out for sure this weekend, so what are the odds he'll be back to go by Thursday? It's impossible to guess as so little information is available, so I'll throw out my two different line combinations:
WITH SHARP
Toews-Kane-Halvat - it's scary to have them all on one line... both for the Hawks and the other team. My biggest concern is that they might try to force things too much, knowing that the bulk of the scoring responsibility is on their shoulders. Especially with Toews and Kane never having seen the post-season, this could be a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, if they can show a little early success, it could be just the confidence boost the kids need to elevate their game.
Bolland-Ladd-Buff - Clearly this line takes a hit without Havlat on it, but Bolland does make things happen and Ladd is a fairly solid all-around player. As always, the question is whether Buff comes to play. If he's got the intensity and desire, then Buff can do a lot of little things that Bolland and Ladd can take advantage of. He also is capable of capitalizing on the good set-ups of Bolland and Ladd by getting some clean up goals.
Pahlsson-Versteeg-Sharp - This line would serve dual purposes, shutting down the opposing teams top line and giving the Hawks a legit second scoring line. Pahlsson isn't a great offensive player, but he's capable. Plus, his great face-off skills and top notch defensive work would both spur the offense. Versteeg and Sharp are both top offensive players who would pair well - Versteeg is a creator while Sharp is a scorer. Plus, they are skilled defensive forwards who are committed in both ends.
Frasier-Burrish-Eager - Yep, Brouwer is sitting in my ideal lines because the guy doesn't add anything. Some might argue that Eager should sit so Brouwer can bring some more skill to this line, but I'm not buying. Eager has skills of his own and I like how this line has skated together. Plus, as I said, Brouwer is worthless. Go back to the AHL and become Steve Maltais Jr. already (no knock on Steve, who is a legendary IHL and AHL player).
WITHOUT SHARP
Toews-Kane-Havlat - Again, I'd probably break them up anyway, but most certainly if Sharp wasn't around to balance the scoring. Still, I'm gonna assume JQ sticks with this set-up.
Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg - My thought here is that this line worked very well with Havlat on it and Versteeg is a poor man's Havlat. You'd have a decent shot at these guys providing scoring and you'd have a fairly solid defensive unit as well. It's not an ideal second line, but it's at least capable.
Pahlsson-Brouwer-Buff - The one thing I'd say about Brouwer is at least he might be able to handle himself on a true checking line. Buff is the bigger question mark, but the fact that he's a defensemen by trade suggests that if put in the situtation to play on a more defensive line, that he could get it done. Again, this is far from ideal, but I think giving Brouwer and Buff a defined and attainable goal - just play good defense every shift - could be the best thing for setting them up for success. It's a lot on Pahlsson to turn this into a good checking line, but honestly, what other options are there?
Frasier-Burrish-Eager - As I mentioned in my original post, I'd have Eager up on one of the top lines because I think he could bring something that they need. Especially with Sharp out, I'd take my chance that Eager could be a nice combo with one of the other lines and then have Brouwer or Buff back on this line. Unfortunately that won't happen this year, but the upside is that this 4th line has done very well together and will continue to be an asset.
Further complicating the Hawks line situation is Sharp - it sounds like he's out for sure this weekend, so what are the odds he'll be back to go by Thursday? It's impossible to guess as so little information is available, so I'll throw out my two different line combinations:
WITH SHARP
Toews-Kane-Halvat - it's scary to have them all on one line... both for the Hawks and the other team. My biggest concern is that they might try to force things too much, knowing that the bulk of the scoring responsibility is on their shoulders. Especially with Toews and Kane never having seen the post-season, this could be a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, if they can show a little early success, it could be just the confidence boost the kids need to elevate their game.
Bolland-Ladd-Buff - Clearly this line takes a hit without Havlat on it, but Bolland does make things happen and Ladd is a fairly solid all-around player. As always, the question is whether Buff comes to play. If he's got the intensity and desire, then Buff can do a lot of little things that Bolland and Ladd can take advantage of. He also is capable of capitalizing on the good set-ups of Bolland and Ladd by getting some clean up goals.
Pahlsson-Versteeg-Sharp - This line would serve dual purposes, shutting down the opposing teams top line and giving the Hawks a legit second scoring line. Pahlsson isn't a great offensive player, but he's capable. Plus, his great face-off skills and top notch defensive work would both spur the offense. Versteeg and Sharp are both top offensive players who would pair well - Versteeg is a creator while Sharp is a scorer. Plus, they are skilled defensive forwards who are committed in both ends.
Frasier-Burrish-Eager - Yep, Brouwer is sitting in my ideal lines because the guy doesn't add anything. Some might argue that Eager should sit so Brouwer can bring some more skill to this line, but I'm not buying. Eager has skills of his own and I like how this line has skated together. Plus, as I said, Brouwer is worthless. Go back to the AHL and become Steve Maltais Jr. already (no knock on Steve, who is a legendary IHL and AHL player).
WITHOUT SHARP
Toews-Kane-Havlat - Again, I'd probably break them up anyway, but most certainly if Sharp wasn't around to balance the scoring. Still, I'm gonna assume JQ sticks with this set-up.
Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg - My thought here is that this line worked very well with Havlat on it and Versteeg is a poor man's Havlat. You'd have a decent shot at these guys providing scoring and you'd have a fairly solid defensive unit as well. It's not an ideal second line, but it's at least capable.
Pahlsson-Brouwer-Buff - The one thing I'd say about Brouwer is at least he might be able to handle himself on a true checking line. Buff is the bigger question mark, but the fact that he's a defensemen by trade suggests that if put in the situtation to play on a more defensive line, that he could get it done. Again, this is far from ideal, but I think giving Brouwer and Buff a defined and attainable goal - just play good defense every shift - could be the best thing for setting them up for success. It's a lot on Pahlsson to turn this into a good checking line, but honestly, what other options are there?
Frasier-Burrish-Eager - As I mentioned in my original post, I'd have Eager up on one of the top lines because I think he could bring something that they need. Especially with Sharp out, I'd take my chance that Eager could be a nice combo with one of the other lines and then have Brouwer or Buff back on this line. Unfortunately that won't happen this year, but the upside is that this 4th line has done very well together and will continue to be an asset.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Hawks vs. Blue Jackets
The Hawks have put themselves in fine shape with their victory last night (4-2 over Nashville) - they now sit at 99 points, have three games left (2 at home), and hold a 3 point lead over both Calgary and Vancouver. Given that one of those teams is guaranteed to earn the #3, for the Hawks to blow the #4 seed, they'd have to not win a single remaining game, not make overtime in 2 of them, and have both Calgary and Vancouver win both their remaining games.
I think it's safe to say that the Hawks are gonna be the #4 seed when the playoffs start next Wednesday, the 15th. Only two questions remain - 1st is who will they play. Conventional wisdom says the Hawks are rooting for Calgary to fall to #5, as they've owned them. However, they hold the tiebreaker with Vancouver (more wins), so the Canucks are gonna have to pick up a point over these next two games. If they don't, the Hawks will have to figure out a way to solve Luongo while also keeping a strong Vancouver offense team from lighting them up.
The second question - when will the Hawks officially clinch the #4? The hope - tonight, at home, versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the way the Hawks have heated up lately, the crowd should be a-rockin. If they can play strong early, even snag a lead right away, it's gonna be a madhouse.
So what are they facing tonight? Columbus is Ohio's first NHL team since the Cleveland Barons merged with the Minnesota North Stars in 1978 (the last time a major pro team ceased independent operations). They started play in 2000 (along with the Minnesota Wild) against our very own Hawks. And it's been all downhill since.
The Blue Jackets have never made the playoffs nor secured more than 80 points in a season. That is, until this year. They're sitting on 40 wins, 90 points, and playing for of their own tonight - the chance to clinch their first ever post-season birth. Any point by the Blue Jackets would do the trick, tho the reality is that it'd take quite a failure of them not to make it at this point. Instead, they're really focusing on positioning, hoping to retain the #6 seed (for which they have a two point lead) and thus avoid San Jose or Detroit in Round 1.
Scoring isn't the Blue Jackets forte, as they're in the bottom third of the league and dead last among the current Western Conference playoff teams. A power play that ranks dead last probably has a lot to do with that. Defense is wear the BJs have made their mark, with a Top 10 team GAA and a penalty kill unit in the top half of the league. With only 15 road wins, Columbus isn't much away from home, but at 4-2-4 over their last 10, they've been playing decent hockey of late.
What limited offense the BJs get comes from #61 Nash (38 G, 38 A), a one-time 40 goal scorer who could turn the trick again this year. #20 Huselius (21 G, 35 A) is a proven scorer, while #18 Umberger (26 G, 19 A) is their top scoring center. #27 Malhotra (11 G, 23 A) and #50 Vermette (15 G, 24 A) are also a key centerman, playing well in both ends and winning 58% of their draws. Vermette was a mid-season pick-up from Ottawa, and has finally filled the huge hole left when Calder candidate #16 Brassard (10 G, 15 A in 31 games) was lost for the year. 19-year old #93 Voracek (9 G, 28 A) and former Hawk #29 J Williams (18 G, 28 A) round out the scoring threats, while #33 Modin, #25 Chimera, and #19 Peca give the BJs significant solid veteran grinder minutes.
#51 Tyutin (9 G, 25 A) has emerged this year as a top defenseman (especially on the power play) to pair with the ever reliable #22 Commodore. Czechs #8 Hedja and #97 Klesla also provide 20+ minutes of solid but unexciting play each night, tho Klesla has been on and off Injured Reserve all year. 21-year old #10 Russell (2 G, 18 A) has emerged as a nice piece to a woeful power play.
Nash wears the C, while Modin and Klesla wear the As. #40 Boll (171 PIM) will definitely fight, as will #15 Dorsett (146 PIM in 49 games), if he's not a healthy scratch. The odds of a fight are tough to judge. On one hand, both teams really want this win, so if the energy is waining, a fight could be a nice pick-me-up. But neither team can afford to give up a power play chance or allow the other team to have one by getting into an unneeded scrap.
In net, 20 year old #1 Mason (2.22 GAA, .918 Sv %) has been a monster this season and is well on his way to winning the Calder for his work carrying his squad into it's first post-season. With 2 days off, he'll most certainly be back in net tonight.
The season series has been close (3-2) with three different games going into OT and 1 even reaching the shoot-out. The Blue Jackets are well-rested and need every point they can get to hang on to the coveted #6 slot. The Hawks are playing their third game in four nights, but know a victory clinches the #4 seed and takes the pressure off of the weekend home-and-home series with the Wings.
Should be a good one, Hawks fans.
I think it's safe to say that the Hawks are gonna be the #4 seed when the playoffs start next Wednesday, the 15th. Only two questions remain - 1st is who will they play. Conventional wisdom says the Hawks are rooting for Calgary to fall to #5, as they've owned them. However, they hold the tiebreaker with Vancouver (more wins), so the Canucks are gonna have to pick up a point over these next two games. If they don't, the Hawks will have to figure out a way to solve Luongo while also keeping a strong Vancouver offense team from lighting them up.
The second question - when will the Hawks officially clinch the #4? The hope - tonight, at home, versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the way the Hawks have heated up lately, the crowd should be a-rockin. If they can play strong early, even snag a lead right away, it's gonna be a madhouse.
So what are they facing tonight? Columbus is Ohio's first NHL team since the Cleveland Barons merged with the Minnesota North Stars in 1978 (the last time a major pro team ceased independent operations). They started play in 2000 (along with the Minnesota Wild) against our very own Hawks. And it's been all downhill since.
The Blue Jackets have never made the playoffs nor secured more than 80 points in a season. That is, until this year. They're sitting on 40 wins, 90 points, and playing for of their own tonight - the chance to clinch their first ever post-season birth. Any point by the Blue Jackets would do the trick, tho the reality is that it'd take quite a failure of them not to make it at this point. Instead, they're really focusing on positioning, hoping to retain the #6 seed (for which they have a two point lead) and thus avoid San Jose or Detroit in Round 1.
Scoring isn't the Blue Jackets forte, as they're in the bottom third of the league and dead last among the current Western Conference playoff teams. A power play that ranks dead last probably has a lot to do with that. Defense is wear the BJs have made their mark, with a Top 10 team GAA and a penalty kill unit in the top half of the league. With only 15 road wins, Columbus isn't much away from home, but at 4-2-4 over their last 10, they've been playing decent hockey of late.
What limited offense the BJs get comes from #61 Nash (38 G, 38 A), a one-time 40 goal scorer who could turn the trick again this year. #20 Huselius (21 G, 35 A) is a proven scorer, while #18 Umberger (26 G, 19 A) is their top scoring center. #27 Malhotra (11 G, 23 A) and #50 Vermette (15 G, 24 A) are also a key centerman, playing well in both ends and winning 58% of their draws. Vermette was a mid-season pick-up from Ottawa, and has finally filled the huge hole left when Calder candidate #16 Brassard (10 G, 15 A in 31 games) was lost for the year. 19-year old #93 Voracek (9 G, 28 A) and former Hawk #29 J Williams (18 G, 28 A) round out the scoring threats, while #33 Modin, #25 Chimera, and #19 Peca give the BJs significant solid veteran grinder minutes.
#51 Tyutin (9 G, 25 A) has emerged this year as a top defenseman (especially on the power play) to pair with the ever reliable #22 Commodore. Czechs #8 Hedja and #97 Klesla also provide 20+ minutes of solid but unexciting play each night, tho Klesla has been on and off Injured Reserve all year. 21-year old #10 Russell (2 G, 18 A) has emerged as a nice piece to a woeful power play.
Nash wears the C, while Modin and Klesla wear the As. #40 Boll (171 PIM) will definitely fight, as will #15 Dorsett (146 PIM in 49 games), if he's not a healthy scratch. The odds of a fight are tough to judge. On one hand, both teams really want this win, so if the energy is waining, a fight could be a nice pick-me-up. But neither team can afford to give up a power play chance or allow the other team to have one by getting into an unneeded scrap.
In net, 20 year old #1 Mason (2.22 GAA, .918 Sv %) has been a monster this season and is well on his way to winning the Calder for his work carrying his squad into it's first post-season. With 2 days off, he'll most certainly be back in net tonight.
The season series has been close (3-2) with three different games going into OT and 1 even reaching the shoot-out. The Blue Jackets are well-rested and need every point they can get to hang on to the coveted #6 slot. The Hawks are playing their third game in four nights, but know a victory clinches the #4 seed and takes the pressure off of the weekend home-and-home series with the Wings.
Should be a good one, Hawks fans.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
"Defense Wins Championships," Lines, and a Reader Request
First and foremost - "Chelsea Dagger" by the Fratellis. That's the name of the awesome song the Hawks play after most of their goals (unless the guy has his own goal song, like "Rock You Like a Hurricane," "Sharped Dressed Man," and "Johnny B. Goode"). It's also from an Amstel or Heineken commercial that is pretty sweet itself. The chorus is clearly the best part, but it's a good song all around. Plus I can't listen to it and not think of the 22k strong rocking the UC after a big Hawks goal. Holy balls I can't wait for the playoffs!!!
For all of the attention the Hawks' scorers have gotten, the struggles the team has run into in the second half come down to one thing - defense. It's been a combination of inconsistent goalkeeping and an exposed defensive unit that has made the race for the #4 seed so close down the stretch. And it's a bounceback of that goalkeeping and defensive play that has allowed the Hawks to regain control of the situation.
After returning with a run of terrible games, Khabi has looked great in four of his last five starts (the lone exception being the egg the entire team laid against Vancouver). In fact, excepting the garbage score St. Louis got with under 10 seconds left in a 3-0 game, Khabi has allowed just one goal in his last 11 periods and 2 overtimes.
Some of that is that Khabi has shaken off the post-injury rust and is hitting his top form when he generally does - when the games matter most (remember, he turned it on down the stretch last season, as well - the first time he's been called upon to win meaningful games with the Hawks). Given his heavy workload of late (10 of the last 12 starts), it seems clear that JQ has tapped Khabi as his #1 for the playoffs.
The other aspect of the Hawks' recent success is the improved defensive play. Apparently teams were pressuring the Hawks' defenders as they tried to get the pucks out of their own end and that both frustrated the Hawks' offense and lead to scoring chances against. In the last few games, the defensemen and wingers have all stepped up their defensive play in a major way. I've been especially pleased with how hard (and how effectively) the Hawks skaters have worked to keep the puck in the offensive zone and get it out of their own end. As I mentioned in my last post - the experience of these tough games is teaching the young Hawks what is necessary to success.
So as the playoffs role around, mark my words - the Hawks won't lose because they can't score. They'll lose because their defense makes mistakes, their forwards aren't working hard enough, and their goaltending has letdowns. If the defense is clicking (and that means all six guys on the ice), then the goals will eventually come. The Hawks have too many weapons to be kept down for long if they're playing a good all-around defensive game, which always leads to offensive pressure on the other end.
Simply - the Hawks will go as far in the post-season as their defense (from both the blueliners and forwards) and goaltending takes them.
Speaking of the post-season, I was thinking about how I'd arrange the lines, and here's what I've come up with:
Toews, Kane, & Buff/Brouwer. Ideally you'd have a more talented player on this line, one capable of handling their nifty passes and working around their good moves. In fact, if I truly were in charge, I'd have had Eager playing on this line all year, allowed him to develop his obvious but raw offensive skills to a point where he could have been a real asset. The way Eager can work the puck behind the net and make good passes suggests defining him only as a goon or energy guy is short-selling the kid.
As it is, Eager is stuck to the 4th line unless injuries hit (which, given how raw he still is, might not be a bad thing), and instead massive underachievers Buff and Brouwer will be slotted into the final scoring line opening. The two do provide some size and toughness, which playmakers always like to have around (especially tiny ones like Kaner), but neither has the hockey skills necessary to really thrive alongside these two young playmakers. I'd probably throw Buff out there and hope that he's motivated - when that happens, he handles the puck better, fights along the boards better, and starts to become a real offensive threat.
Bolland, Havlat, & Ladd. These guys have skated together all year and done a great job at it (they all have +/- over 18, +65 in all). Obviously the line is driven by Havlat's all-around impressive skillset, but Bolland and Ladd have shown that they're also skilled players who bring important tools to the table. Both are hard workers who just seem to know how to be in the right place and make the right play. And the fact that these guys all are highly effective checking forwards is a bonus few teams get out of a top scoring line.
Pahlsson, Sharp, & Versteeg. This is an impressive checking line, both in that all three are fine defensive players and that it packs some real offensive punch. Pahlsson is merely capable offensively, but that's all Sharp and Versteeg need as a compliment, as Versteeg's playmaking and Sharp's sniper skills make these guys a real two-way threat. Combined with the Bolland line and the 4th liners, the Hawks are rolling three of four strong defensive lines - you need that sort of defensive depth come the post-season.
Frasier, Burrish, & Eager. As I said, I would have had Eager playing up on the top line all year so that he was capable of handling the responsibility, leaving either Buff or Brouwer back on this line. Personally I think Brouwer brings nothing to the table at all (as evidenced by his middling 10 goals and 16 assists, despite playing all year with some of the best playmakers in hockey). I'd probably have slotted Buff in here, figuring that playing on the energy line would inspire him to bring the intensity that occassionally makes him a good player.
Instead, Eager will be down on the 4th line, where this unit has done a great job all sesaon, in large part because these guys are the rare combination of hard-working, hard-nosed types who know their role, but who also are athletic and have true hockey talent. They've got some speed, some ability to score, and they handle the puck better than most 4th lines. There have been a ton of shifts where I was surprised to realize that it was this very line that had kept the puck working in the offensive end for a minute straight.
Keith & Seabrook. Honestly, I can't say I'm as confident about my defensive pairings as I am my lines, but this is my best shot. Obviously these two will skate together, and I think they should. You need that one dominant pairing that you can throw out there against their top line, as these guys are it in spades.
Campbell & Hjalmarsson. I'd want to seperate Campbell and Barker, as they bring the most offensively, and both are a bit mistake prone defensively. This pairing wouldn't be much of a physical presence, but at least you'd have your most veteran defender coupled with your most green one. And Nik is definitely gonna be playing conservatively with an eye on defense, allowing Campbell to push more offensively.
Barker & Walker. Barker makes a lot of mistakes, while Walker, as a stay-at-home type, could help erase those. Also, this would allow me to roll the defenders so that Campbell-Hjalmarsson match up against a more athletic line while Barker-Walker (who both list over 6'3", 220) can handle the more physical line.
Khabi. I think Huet can be a good goalie, and I think next year when he's the man he'll do a fine job. But it's clear that Khabi has found his zone and is rearing to go on the big stage. With his final contract as motivation and the thrill of being back in the postseason, Khabi should bring everything he's got.
And in the Reader Request Department, my brother brought up these five good points, all of which I'll steal and build upon:
-"We need to get Havlat signed; he is the Hawks best player. "
I'd still say Keith is their most valuable player, but I could go along with Havlat being their best (as in most talented) - he's by far the most complete forward they have on the team. All signs were pointing to an imminent extension, but there's been no news since the deadline on that. It's possible the Hawks and Havlat don't want to take their focus off of the ice at this crucial juncture, but I'd still feel a lot better knowing that Havlat was gonna be in Chicago for the next 3-5 years.
-"Campbell is starting to look like a bust, with very few points and a lot of minus games lately - and he doesn't seem like the kind of player who makes his name in the playoffs either."
I've been a big Campbell defender, trying to explain to everyone that quarterbacking offensive defensemen do more than what simply shows up on the score sheet. Campbell drives the offense in a way that no other Hawk defenseman can, not Keith, not Barker. However, from Feb 27th to Mar 29th (a 15-game stretch), Campbell was a -12 - that's pretty damning evidence, given this was when the team needed him most.
Still, I think Campbell will end up a good signing. Very few players can work the power play or lead rushes like Campbell can. That has to be respected, and would be sorely missed if Campbell wasn't around. But I think my brother hits the key point - how will Campbell perform in the post-season? So far he's posted 4 G and 16 A in 47 playoff games. That's not terrible - scoring is at a premium, so clicking at a 7 G, 28 A full-season pace on the backend is pretty respectable. But Campbell also has to avoid the defensive lapses that plagued him in that -12 stretch he posted. As I said, it'll be defense that wins in the playoffs, so Campbell needs to be his offensive creating self while also avoiding mistakes and using his speed to erase mistakes.
-"Hjalmarrson looks good."
Given that Nik has had the misfortune of playing in 10 losses in his 17 games (a lot of them bad losses), his 0 +/- isn't too bad. And JQ had trusted him more and more lately on the penalty kill, a unit that has showed improvement of late after a mid-season swoon. Defenders are hard to judge and I think it's clear the Hawks would have benefitted from adding another veteran blueliner, but it's possible Nik is a part of the future, so getting him these crunch time and playoff game experience should really help his development (remember, he was around for a lot of stretch run last year as well). He's only 21 and stands 6'3" (I didn't believe it - he looks real short out there, but I checked about 5 sites and they all had him either 6'2" or 6'3"), so there's room for growth, both literally and figuratively. If he can add some more bulk to his hard-working frame, I think he could be a solid player in years to come.
-"Getting Sharp back really helped reinvigorate the offense."
Absolutely concur - I always tend to be optimistic when a guy goes down, focusing on all of the other good players left standing in assuming we'll overcome it without much problem. But the fact is that Sharp is a uniquely skilled goal scorer who plays very well defensively (he's been getting some PK minutes lately, which has been a real boon to the unit). Plus he's a veteran leader, which you need down the stretch. I'm glad he's back, and hope that the decision to sit him last game after his opening period collision with the goalie was one of extreme caution, and not something to worry about (tho I don't get how JQ would have felt confident enough in this race to sit one of his better players unless he had to).
-"So far, Pahlson has been unimpressive."
Up until the point when my brother wrote this, he was right. But you gotta cut Sammy some slack - he's recovering from freakin Mono. Since then, Pahlson has logged 20 minutes of 0 +/- hockey in that disaster against Vancouver, then pointed in three straight before logging near 20 minutes again in the Columbus OT win. It looks like Sammy's finally got his legs underneath him and is in place to be a real asset come the playoffs.
-"Pat Foley is awesome."
Wow do I agree. The Pride of Glenview elevates the Hawks experience to a level no other announcer could ever provide. A few related broadcasting thoughts:
1. I like Eddie O - he's a Hawk (1st pick, 3rd overall in 1984, started and ended his career with the Hawks), he's a Chicago kid (born and raised in Palos Heights), and he's both played and coached in the NHL. I can't tell if I enjoy that midway through the third period of each broadcast, Eddie and Pat always totally lose it on some dorky joke, or find it awkward. Either way, Eddie's a solid partner.
2. I really like the Hawks radio guys - John Wiederman (I'll admit, I had to look up his name - and I don't feel bad, that's a terrible broadcasting name) and Troy Murray do a real nice job. Wiederman I especially enjoy, mainly because he sounds like a poor man's Foley (that's a high compliment). My ear is just so tuned to Foley's voice, hearing any other call the Hawks is brutal. But Wiederman really sounds similar, without being a cheesy impression or anything. He merely was lucky enough to naturally sound just like the greatest voice in hockey.
3. I met Pat Foley last year at a bar after one of the Hawks heritage nights. He couldn't have been nicer, taking the time to talk for a while with my buddy and me, and clearly being flattered by how much we appreciated him.
Really, Pat Foley is awesome.
For all of the attention the Hawks' scorers have gotten, the struggles the team has run into in the second half come down to one thing - defense. It's been a combination of inconsistent goalkeeping and an exposed defensive unit that has made the race for the #4 seed so close down the stretch. And it's a bounceback of that goalkeeping and defensive play that has allowed the Hawks to regain control of the situation.
After returning with a run of terrible games, Khabi has looked great in four of his last five starts (the lone exception being the egg the entire team laid against Vancouver). In fact, excepting the garbage score St. Louis got with under 10 seconds left in a 3-0 game, Khabi has allowed just one goal in his last 11 periods and 2 overtimes.
Some of that is that Khabi has shaken off the post-injury rust and is hitting his top form when he generally does - when the games matter most (remember, he turned it on down the stretch last season, as well - the first time he's been called upon to win meaningful games with the Hawks). Given his heavy workload of late (10 of the last 12 starts), it seems clear that JQ has tapped Khabi as his #1 for the playoffs.
The other aspect of the Hawks' recent success is the improved defensive play. Apparently teams were pressuring the Hawks' defenders as they tried to get the pucks out of their own end and that both frustrated the Hawks' offense and lead to scoring chances against. In the last few games, the defensemen and wingers have all stepped up their defensive play in a major way. I've been especially pleased with how hard (and how effectively) the Hawks skaters have worked to keep the puck in the offensive zone and get it out of their own end. As I mentioned in my last post - the experience of these tough games is teaching the young Hawks what is necessary to success.
So as the playoffs role around, mark my words - the Hawks won't lose because they can't score. They'll lose because their defense makes mistakes, their forwards aren't working hard enough, and their goaltending has letdowns. If the defense is clicking (and that means all six guys on the ice), then the goals will eventually come. The Hawks have too many weapons to be kept down for long if they're playing a good all-around defensive game, which always leads to offensive pressure on the other end.
Simply - the Hawks will go as far in the post-season as their defense (from both the blueliners and forwards) and goaltending takes them.
Speaking of the post-season, I was thinking about how I'd arrange the lines, and here's what I've come up with:
Toews, Kane, & Buff/Brouwer. Ideally you'd have a more talented player on this line, one capable of handling their nifty passes and working around their good moves. In fact, if I truly were in charge, I'd have had Eager playing on this line all year, allowed him to develop his obvious but raw offensive skills to a point where he could have been a real asset. The way Eager can work the puck behind the net and make good passes suggests defining him only as a goon or energy guy is short-selling the kid.
As it is, Eager is stuck to the 4th line unless injuries hit (which, given how raw he still is, might not be a bad thing), and instead massive underachievers Buff and Brouwer will be slotted into the final scoring line opening. The two do provide some size and toughness, which playmakers always like to have around (especially tiny ones like Kaner), but neither has the hockey skills necessary to really thrive alongside these two young playmakers. I'd probably throw Buff out there and hope that he's motivated - when that happens, he handles the puck better, fights along the boards better, and starts to become a real offensive threat.
Bolland, Havlat, & Ladd. These guys have skated together all year and done a great job at it (they all have +/- over 18, +65 in all). Obviously the line is driven by Havlat's all-around impressive skillset, but Bolland and Ladd have shown that they're also skilled players who bring important tools to the table. Both are hard workers who just seem to know how to be in the right place and make the right play. And the fact that these guys all are highly effective checking forwards is a bonus few teams get out of a top scoring line.
Pahlsson, Sharp, & Versteeg. This is an impressive checking line, both in that all three are fine defensive players and that it packs some real offensive punch. Pahlsson is merely capable offensively, but that's all Sharp and Versteeg need as a compliment, as Versteeg's playmaking and Sharp's sniper skills make these guys a real two-way threat. Combined with the Bolland line and the 4th liners, the Hawks are rolling three of four strong defensive lines - you need that sort of defensive depth come the post-season.
Frasier, Burrish, & Eager. As I said, I would have had Eager playing up on the top line all year so that he was capable of handling the responsibility, leaving either Buff or Brouwer back on this line. Personally I think Brouwer brings nothing to the table at all (as evidenced by his middling 10 goals and 16 assists, despite playing all year with some of the best playmakers in hockey). I'd probably have slotted Buff in here, figuring that playing on the energy line would inspire him to bring the intensity that occassionally makes him a good player.
Instead, Eager will be down on the 4th line, where this unit has done a great job all sesaon, in large part because these guys are the rare combination of hard-working, hard-nosed types who know their role, but who also are athletic and have true hockey talent. They've got some speed, some ability to score, and they handle the puck better than most 4th lines. There have been a ton of shifts where I was surprised to realize that it was this very line that had kept the puck working in the offensive end for a minute straight.
Keith & Seabrook. Honestly, I can't say I'm as confident about my defensive pairings as I am my lines, but this is my best shot. Obviously these two will skate together, and I think they should. You need that one dominant pairing that you can throw out there against their top line, as these guys are it in spades.
Campbell & Hjalmarsson. I'd want to seperate Campbell and Barker, as they bring the most offensively, and both are a bit mistake prone defensively. This pairing wouldn't be much of a physical presence, but at least you'd have your most veteran defender coupled with your most green one. And Nik is definitely gonna be playing conservatively with an eye on defense, allowing Campbell to push more offensively.
Barker & Walker. Barker makes a lot of mistakes, while Walker, as a stay-at-home type, could help erase those. Also, this would allow me to roll the defenders so that Campbell-Hjalmarsson match up against a more athletic line while Barker-Walker (who both list over 6'3", 220) can handle the more physical line.
Khabi. I think Huet can be a good goalie, and I think next year when he's the man he'll do a fine job. But it's clear that Khabi has found his zone and is rearing to go on the big stage. With his final contract as motivation and the thrill of being back in the postseason, Khabi should bring everything he's got.
And in the Reader Request Department, my brother brought up these five good points, all of which I'll steal and build upon:
-"We need to get Havlat signed; he is the Hawks best player. "
I'd still say Keith is their most valuable player, but I could go along with Havlat being their best (as in most talented) - he's by far the most complete forward they have on the team. All signs were pointing to an imminent extension, but there's been no news since the deadline on that. It's possible the Hawks and Havlat don't want to take their focus off of the ice at this crucial juncture, but I'd still feel a lot better knowing that Havlat was gonna be in Chicago for the next 3-5 years.
-"Campbell is starting to look like a bust, with very few points and a lot of minus games lately - and he doesn't seem like the kind of player who makes his name in the playoffs either."
I've been a big Campbell defender, trying to explain to everyone that quarterbacking offensive defensemen do more than what simply shows up on the score sheet. Campbell drives the offense in a way that no other Hawk defenseman can, not Keith, not Barker. However, from Feb 27th to Mar 29th (a 15-game stretch), Campbell was a -12 - that's pretty damning evidence, given this was when the team needed him most.
Still, I think Campbell will end up a good signing. Very few players can work the power play or lead rushes like Campbell can. That has to be respected, and would be sorely missed if Campbell wasn't around. But I think my brother hits the key point - how will Campbell perform in the post-season? So far he's posted 4 G and 16 A in 47 playoff games. That's not terrible - scoring is at a premium, so clicking at a 7 G, 28 A full-season pace on the backend is pretty respectable. But Campbell also has to avoid the defensive lapses that plagued him in that -12 stretch he posted. As I said, it'll be defense that wins in the playoffs, so Campbell needs to be his offensive creating self while also avoiding mistakes and using his speed to erase mistakes.
-"Hjalmarrson looks good."
Given that Nik has had the misfortune of playing in 10 losses in his 17 games (a lot of them bad losses), his 0 +/- isn't too bad. And JQ had trusted him more and more lately on the penalty kill, a unit that has showed improvement of late after a mid-season swoon. Defenders are hard to judge and I think it's clear the Hawks would have benefitted from adding another veteran blueliner, but it's possible Nik is a part of the future, so getting him these crunch time and playoff game experience should really help his development (remember, he was around for a lot of stretch run last year as well). He's only 21 and stands 6'3" (I didn't believe it - he looks real short out there, but I checked about 5 sites and they all had him either 6'2" or 6'3"), so there's room for growth, both literally and figuratively. If he can add some more bulk to his hard-working frame, I think he could be a solid player in years to come.
-"Getting Sharp back really helped reinvigorate the offense."
Absolutely concur - I always tend to be optimistic when a guy goes down, focusing on all of the other good players left standing in assuming we'll overcome it without much problem. But the fact is that Sharp is a uniquely skilled goal scorer who plays very well defensively (he's been getting some PK minutes lately, which has been a real boon to the unit). Plus he's a veteran leader, which you need down the stretch. I'm glad he's back, and hope that the decision to sit him last game after his opening period collision with the goalie was one of extreme caution, and not something to worry about (tho I don't get how JQ would have felt confident enough in this race to sit one of his better players unless he had to).
-"So far, Pahlson has been unimpressive."
Up until the point when my brother wrote this, he was right. But you gotta cut Sammy some slack - he's recovering from freakin Mono. Since then, Pahlson has logged 20 minutes of 0 +/- hockey in that disaster against Vancouver, then pointed in three straight before logging near 20 minutes again in the Columbus OT win. It looks like Sammy's finally got his legs underneath him and is in place to be a real asset come the playoffs.
-"Pat Foley is awesome."
Wow do I agree. The Pride of Glenview elevates the Hawks experience to a level no other announcer could ever provide. A few related broadcasting thoughts:
1. I like Eddie O - he's a Hawk (1st pick, 3rd overall in 1984, started and ended his career with the Hawks), he's a Chicago kid (born and raised in Palos Heights), and he's both played and coached in the NHL. I can't tell if I enjoy that midway through the third period of each broadcast, Eddie and Pat always totally lose it on some dorky joke, or find it awkward. Either way, Eddie's a solid partner.
2. I really like the Hawks radio guys - John Wiederman (I'll admit, I had to look up his name - and I don't feel bad, that's a terrible broadcasting name) and Troy Murray do a real nice job. Wiederman I especially enjoy, mainly because he sounds like a poor man's Foley (that's a high compliment). My ear is just so tuned to Foley's voice, hearing any other call the Hawks is brutal. But Wiederman really sounds similar, without being a cheesy impression or anything. He merely was lucky enough to naturally sound just like the greatest voice in hockey.
3. I met Pat Foley last year at a bar after one of the Hawks heritage nights. He couldn't have been nicer, taking the time to talk for a while with my buddy and me, and clearly being flattered by how much we appreciated him.
Really, Pat Foley is awesome.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
"Experience Is The Teacher Of All Things"
Julius Caesar - a fellow great Italian - said the above about experience, and it's as true in sports as anywhere.
As the youngest team in the league and one coming of a 5th straight playoff-less year, the Blackhawks are hurting for experience. Of their active 20-man roster, only four players have any lengthy post-season resumes:
Khabi - 57 games, split between four straight first round exits with the Coyotes (including one when they were still the Winnipeg Jets) and a pair of runs with the Lightning (including to the title in 2004).
Campbell - 47 games during three long trips (two with Buffalo, then last year with the Sharks).
Havlit - 51 games, all with Ottawa over five seasons from 01 to 05.
Pahlsson - 64 games, including winning a cup with Anaheim in 07.
(It should also be noted that the Sopel's corpse has played 42 postseason contests, all with the Canucks. But I haven't heard anything to suggest he'll be back, nor that he'll play when he does return. Can't say I disagree, unless his horrible play to start the year was a product of this mysterious injury.)
Other than that, Ladd (17 Ga), Huet (13 Ga), Sharp (12 Ga), Walker (4 Ga), Eager (2 Ga), and all have seen the post-season, but none could be considered true playoff vets (tho Ladd's ring and Huet's pair of post-season visits are definitely worth something).
So the Chicago Blackhawks will enter the playoffs in two weeks with only four guys with significant post-season experience and eleven different guys with absolutely no post-season experience. Scary.
That's why I'm actually somewhat pleased that the Hawks have blown their comfortable lead for the 4th seed and are now being forced to battle for their lives against other similarly desperate teams.
The Blackhawks, above all else, need experience if they expect to win a Cup. Making the playoffs was an important goal for this year - because the team needed to see what the playoffs were all about before they could expect to have great success there.
Now that a playoff birth is all but in the bag, it's about maximizing the experience we can get out of this playoff run. And thanks to their second half struggles, the Hawks are now getting playoff-like experience before they even get there. The pressure is on, the other teams are leaving it all out there, and every win gets you closer to a major goal, while every loss digs deep at you.
Ideally, the Hawks would respond to this challenge, finish the year strong, and earn the #4 seed, hosting Calgary. You can NEVER predict the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it's hard to argue with the logic that you'd rather face Calgary, whom we've owned in four match-ups this year, then a red-hot Vancouver team who's backstopped by one of the best goalies in the game.
The hope is that last night's win was the Hawks answering the bell and showing they've renewed their focus and upped their game. They looked incredible out there - it was really men among boys. The Blues, who've owned the Hawks this season, couldn't even get a shot off in a three and a half minute power play. That's the kind of game it was - where the puck was constantly in the Hawks offensive zone, and the pressure never stopped.
But as long as the Hawks don't lay down the rest of the way and in the playoffs, I think this year will have been a real success. The ultimate goal remains a Stanley Cup championship, and with what I've seen talent and execution-wise out of the Hawks, to me the main ingredient they are missing is experience.
Fighting, for the second straight year, down the stretch in a string of must-win games will definitely up their experience. And hopefully the Hawks can put together a series victory and a strong showing in the second. Twelve competitive playoff games - that's what I'd like to see. Do that, and I think the Hawks could be Cup contenders next season. Probably won't win it, but I think they'll be legitimately included in the conversation as the 09-10 season progresses.
As the youngest team in the league and one coming of a 5th straight playoff-less year, the Blackhawks are hurting for experience. Of their active 20-man roster, only four players have any lengthy post-season resumes:
Khabi - 57 games, split between four straight first round exits with the Coyotes (including one when they were still the Winnipeg Jets) and a pair of runs with the Lightning (including to the title in 2004).
Campbell - 47 games during three long trips (two with Buffalo, then last year with the Sharks).
Havlit - 51 games, all with Ottawa over five seasons from 01 to 05.
Pahlsson - 64 games, including winning a cup with Anaheim in 07.
(It should also be noted that the Sopel's corpse has played 42 postseason contests, all with the Canucks. But I haven't heard anything to suggest he'll be back, nor that he'll play when he does return. Can't say I disagree, unless his horrible play to start the year was a product of this mysterious injury.)
Other than that, Ladd (17 Ga), Huet (13 Ga), Sharp (12 Ga), Walker (4 Ga), Eager (2 Ga), and all have seen the post-season, but none could be considered true playoff vets (tho Ladd's ring and Huet's pair of post-season visits are definitely worth something).
So the Chicago Blackhawks will enter the playoffs in two weeks with only four guys with significant post-season experience and eleven different guys with absolutely no post-season experience. Scary.
That's why I'm actually somewhat pleased that the Hawks have blown their comfortable lead for the 4th seed and are now being forced to battle for their lives against other similarly desperate teams.
The Blackhawks, above all else, need experience if they expect to win a Cup. Making the playoffs was an important goal for this year - because the team needed to see what the playoffs were all about before they could expect to have great success there.
Now that a playoff birth is all but in the bag, it's about maximizing the experience we can get out of this playoff run. And thanks to their second half struggles, the Hawks are now getting playoff-like experience before they even get there. The pressure is on, the other teams are leaving it all out there, and every win gets you closer to a major goal, while every loss digs deep at you.
Ideally, the Hawks would respond to this challenge, finish the year strong, and earn the #4 seed, hosting Calgary. You can NEVER predict the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it's hard to argue with the logic that you'd rather face Calgary, whom we've owned in four match-ups this year, then a red-hot Vancouver team who's backstopped by one of the best goalies in the game.
The hope is that last night's win was the Hawks answering the bell and showing they've renewed their focus and upped their game. They looked incredible out there - it was really men among boys. The Blues, who've owned the Hawks this season, couldn't even get a shot off in a three and a half minute power play. That's the kind of game it was - where the puck was constantly in the Hawks offensive zone, and the pressure never stopped.
But as long as the Hawks don't lay down the rest of the way and in the playoffs, I think this year will have been a real success. The ultimate goal remains a Stanley Cup championship, and with what I've seen talent and execution-wise out of the Hawks, to me the main ingredient they are missing is experience.
Fighting, for the second straight year, down the stretch in a string of must-win games will definitely up their experience. And hopefully the Hawks can put together a series victory and a strong showing in the second. Twelve competitive playoff games - that's what I'd like to see. Do that, and I think the Hawks could be Cup contenders next season. Probably won't win it, but I think they'll be legitimately included in the conversation as the 09-10 season progresses.
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