Hawks v Canucks - 2nd Round Series Preview

It'd be easy to be satisfied with the Hawks year as is - 4th in the West, a strong offensive and defensive performance all season, and a series win over a very capable and accomplished opponent. But as the Anaheim Ducks reminded us yet again - ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS.

Sure, the Canucks had a great second half and have an outstanding goal keeper. But they aren't in a different class than the Hawks, and even if they were, as the Ducks showed, you can always outplay a team if you approach things right and get a hot netminder.

The Hawks have the talent offensively and defensively to beat the Canucks. It's just a matter of whether they can make Luongo look human and whether Khabi can meet his challenge. Both of those are reasonably likely to happen - not to say the odds are on the Hawks side, as I'd say it's too close to call - but it wouldn't be any great surprise if they did.

So, just like Round 1, this is a winnable series - remember, the Hawks actually had more standings points than the Canucks, 104 to 100. And like Round 1, it should be a battle that goes at least 6 games. Unlike Round 1, the Hawks don't have the luxury of home ice. But also unlike Round 1, the Hawks aren't playoff newbies anymore. They've gone through the fire and been found able. There is no reason to believe they cannot do so yet again.


The Canucks bring with them an interesting history. Everyone remembers the Russian Rocket Pavel Bure carrying this squad to the 1994 Cup Finals, only to lose to the Rangers in a dramatic 7-game series that pretty much marked the high point of the NHL's popularity in America. Since then, not a whole lot to report on the Canucks.

They haven't even been back to the Conference Finals, but they also haven't been bad. There was a tough 4-year stretch from 96-97 to 99-00 where they couldn't make the playoffs, but they weren't awful, and they did follow that with a 4-year string of playoff appearances before the lock-out. It's been a mixed bag since returning - no playoffs, then 105 points and a series victory, followed by another missed post-season last year, before again reaching 100 points and earning the #3 seed this season.


Offensively, Vancouver is middle of the road with a power play that is actually slightly below average. With Luongo in net, it's not surprising that they are the 7th stingiest defense in the league (tho the PK is again, middle of the road). However, before you're too impressed with our opponents - the Hawks were the 5th stingiest team, so even the Canucks supposed strength actually was in our favor during the regular season.

Against the Blues, the series was a heck of a lot closer than the sweep suggested. Besides the 3-0 spanking in Game 2, St. Louis lost each game by only a single goal. Luongo was amazing - stopping 96% of the shots in all but one of the games (in which he stopped 92%) - as the Canucks only out-shot the Blues one time.

But what does this really say about the Canucks? The Blues were a below average offensive club who was extremely young and inexperienced. They finished the year hot, but still won only half their games and gave up as many goals as they scored. Not to say the Blues were a push-over, but they also weren't one of the toughest playoff teams out there. At the very least, it suggests the Canucks still need to prove they can do it against a top tier team.


Against the Hawks this year, it's been fairly even. The Hawks won two early, the Canucks won two late. In two of the three games they saw him, the Hawks hung 4 and 3 goals on Luongo. However, twice the Canucks won by 4 goals. Each team has won at home and on the road. None of the games have gone extra time, and in fact, none have even been decided by a goal. That's something I'd imagine will change in what should be, like most NHL playoff series, a hard-fought battle, puck drop to hand shakes.


And now, the cast of characters that we'll be watching these next two weeks. A name we'll hear a ton of is Sedin, as the Canucks have two of them - Daniel and Henrik. They're twins, drafted together because they refused to play apart. In fact, the Hawks facilitated the deal that allowed the Canucks to take them both. They're approaching free agency this off-season and continue to insist that they play together. Cool shit, I say.

But more than being a novelty piece, they are highly talented. The two of them, along with Alexander Burrows, are a strong first line. Not only did they score all season long, but they're plus-minus was over 20, meaning they don't give up a lot on their end. That's important against the Hawks, who get scoring from all of their lines. And they had no trouble adjusting to the playoffs, scoring 6 goals (3 from Burrows) in 4 games against the Blues.

Only two relative weaknesses are evident - Sedin is just average on face-offs (though not terrible) and Burrows takes a lot of penalties. Although he's not very big, he racked up 150 PIM this year, most likely defending the Sedins, who are neither big nor particularly tough (although they aren't soft either). Given the scoring Burrows provides and the strength of the Hawks power play, getting him into the box should be a goal.

But really it's gonna be on Pahlsson, Versteeg, and Buff (assuming JQ rolls out the same lines) to shut them down, along, of course, with a great bit of help from Keith and Seabrook. The Canucks aren't fully reliant on this line for scoring - the 2nd line is potent and the third can't be ignored. But if the Pahlsson line and Keith-Seabrook pairing can shut these guys down, the Canucks are going to be fighting a real up-hill battle.

And it's not out of the question - they're all good scorers, but not at the level of a Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin. More importantly, Pahlsson proved two years ago that he could have their lunch, leading the Ducks to a 4-1 opening round victory over these Canucks. When you factor in how good Keith always is and how well Seabrook has been playing of late, it's very possible this match-up could tilt in the Hawks favor, tipping the whole series our way.


As I mentioned, the second line can't be ignored, and that's for two different reasons. First, all three players definitely can score and create. Second, the two most experienced forwards in the series play on this line. Third, they are a tough defensive unit for a scoring line. Finally, maybe more than any other unit, they have the ability to effect the series on both ends, both positively and negatively.

Mats Sundin came back midway through the season to make a run at a Cup with the Canucks. This after he refused to wave his no-trade clause last year when the Leafs, assured of no post-season, looked to move him. So right away I'm questioning his heart and the fact that he's been a star for almost two decades but never taken his team anywhere doesn't help. He also missed two of the four games in the Blues series and his status is uncertain for tonight.

However, there's no question Sundin's still very talented. He's also very big, although that hasn't hurt the Hawks as much this year. And he's got two talented wingers on his sides. Pavol Demitra has been around almost as long as Sundin and also continues to be a talented player with questions. He was known to disappear in big situations in the past and hasn't won any of his last five playoff series. Still, he's capable, meaning he could just pick this series to make his mark.

But the most interesting player on the line is Ryan Kesler, a Selke finalist. The Selke is my favorite trophy because it rewards one of the hardest skills to gauge - great defense out of a forward. Kesler has been a tremendous all-around player this year, scoring goals, winning face-offs, creating for his teammates, and of course, locking down the other team. He'll be leaned on to play that great defense, as again, to beat the Hawks you've got to defend from all four lines.

In all, this line can score, it's got experience, and is solid defensively. They also are nasty on the face-offs, as all three players consistently win around 55% of their draws. But they're old and have questionable histories, or in the case of Kesler, young and still a bit unproven.


The third line is also a bit of a question mark - there's talent, but it's young and inexperienced. Kyle Wellwood is small but talented, yet not a traditional play-making center, racking up only single-digit assists this year. However, he scored a good amount of goals for a third liner and is real strong in the face-off circle. Mason Ramond is also small and in only his second year, but has shown himself decently capable, though nothing special. Steve Bernier brings the size that the other two lack, but also is young, capable, but not really amazing.

This line intrigues only because it's hard to know what they'll do in the playoffs. It's a common story for players or whole lines to come out of nowhere to contribute. While this line isn't dangerous, they can definitely score. They're young so they've got some legs to them. But they also aren't proven nor the greatest players. I'll be interested to see what role they play.


The Canucks 4th line doesn't bring a whole lot to the table, but they also don't hurt them too much. They won't be on the ice much, they won't give up much for goals, but they also aren't likely to contribute anything. Darcy Hordichuk is the only bruiser - Ryan Johnson and Rick Rypien are sort of filler. Rypien is still young and didn't play much this year - I think he was out with an injury - so he might have some talent. But it seems like they won't be a major factor, unlike the Hawks' 4th, who can both score and change the tone of the game.

Finally, if Sundin can't go or another Canuck skater goes down, Jannik Hansen proved to be the fill-in, skating in two games last series. He's not terrible, but also not a major difference maker, so losing Sundin would be a significant step down.



The Canucks blue line has the nice advantage of playing in front of one of the biggest and best goaltenders in the game. It features three long-proven vets, two strong young up-and-comers, and a young big bruiser. There were some injury concerns in the last round, but the long layoff earned by the sweep has allowed what supposedly has been enough time to get everyone back up to full speed.

Veteran Willie Mitchell is a pure stay-at-home type who makes his money stopping the other team at even strength and on the penality kill. He didn't miss any time in the first round, but he was pretty apparently injured. Given the Hawks outstanding skaters, the Canucks need Mitchell to continue to log a ton of minutes.

Mattias Ohlund and Sami Salo have been around for a while and bring strong two-way play to the Vancouver blueline. Salo missed two games in the first series, necessitating time by the respectable Ossi Vaananen, but should be ready to go for Game 1. Between Mitchell, Ohlund, and Salo, they've strung together 30 years of NHL experience.

But the Vancouver blueline isn't without some capable youth, as Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler have logged a lot of minutes and been busy contributing to the offense with good shots and strong passing. The Blues didn't have the offense to test these youngsters like the Hawks do - it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Finally, Shane O'Brien is young, big, and has no issue with physicality within or beyond the rules. He racked up 196 PIM but doesn't log the big ice time as the five other defenders do.

In general, the Hawks need to respect that this team can score or set-up plays from the point, as every Vancouver blueliner is capable offensively. Especially when combined with how big Luongo is, it's also clear the Hawks won't have a lot of space to work - the Canucks defensemen are very big guys. However, that also suggests they aren't the fastest, which means the Hawks highly mobile offense could give them fits. Not to say they're slow, but at that size, can they keep up with all the speed the Hawks bring? Or will they try to combat that in much the same way the Flames did - by being overly physical?

All signs point to that being the case, though as the Flames learned, that's no cure all. The Hawks are fast and offensively gifted, but they aren't soft by any means. They've got plenty of tough guys and far from minding when a game gets tough, these feisty kids seem to relish it. It's always a challenge to be both physical and effective, but the Hawks learned pretty quickly how to ramp up their aggressiveness for playoff hockey.


Finally, below is my best guess at the Canucks special teams. As I mentioned, their power play is good, but not unstoppable. And their penalty kill is capable, but can be beaten. In my mind it really doesn't matter whether we're even, down, or up one skater - it's all about taking the game to the Canucks.

In the last series, the Hawks had to be aggressive in their philosophy in order to keep the Flames great offense at bay and take advantage of their porous defense. In this series, the reasons are totally different, but the approach needs to be the same. The Canucks offense is good, but nothing amazing. If you take the game to them, they don't have the pure fire power to get back into it. On the other hand, the Canucks defense and goaltending is very strong, meaning that if you aren't giving yourself every chance possible to score, you're gonna have a hard time getting the goals needed to win.

JQ needs to continue to get his blueliners pushing forward and his skates focused wholly on getting the puck deep into the Canuck end and keeping it there. He has to have faith in his defense's and forward's ability to cover mistakes, and ultimately for Khabi to clean up after all of them. Don't sit back and turn a solid Canuck offense into a highly potent one.

It would seem with the imposing figure of Luongo hanging over this series, JQ would know that he has to throw everything he can forward in an effort to break through offensively. Let's hope it's the case, because I really believe the Hawks have everything it takes to win this series and reach an improbable conference finals. But that will only happen if they approach the game aggressively.

That's More Like It!

If you've gone to all three Hawks home playoff games this year, then you've gotten to see all three types of wins - the dramatic come from behind OT W, the nail-biting defense of a 1-goal lead, and the offensive explosion.

Yes my friends, hockey is most definitely back in Chitown.

I tore JQ a new one after the pitiful performance in the third period of Game 4, and rightfully so. After an amazing come back, he had his team playing completely passively and it cost them a chance to put the series away.

But JQ made up for it, to a large extent, with the way he had the team playing in Game 5. There was no question from the first whistle that this team was going to be aggressive. I'm not talking about working hard and delivering hits. They've been doing that all series. I'm talking about the strategy - pushing forward, pinching defensemen, bringing the game to the Flames rather than sitting back and letting them take it to us.

The results were beyond ridiculous - a 15-3 shot total in the first period. A 5-1 lead midway through the second. And then, when the Flames were given one last longshot, the Hawks surgically killed off a minute thirty of 5-on-3. The skaters were brilliant in all facets. After two poor outings from Khabi, the Hawks skaters took it upon themselves to win the game. They scored a ton, kept all the pressure on the other end, and didn't even allow Khabi to see much for shots. And when Khabi let in a total softy, the Hawks roared back with two goals to get him off the hook.

Their passing was beautiful, their skating sharp, their movements crisps, their positioning perfect, the teamwork ideal. Everything about the blueliners and forwards was just right.

I even found myself appreciating the work of Buff and Brouwer, my two favorite whipping boys.
It made me realize that in a lot of the series, they've actually held their own. It's a great example of how important it is to put guys in a position where they can succeed. Asked to skate with gifted offensive players most of the year, Buff looked bad twice for every time he did something good.

But in the playoffs he's been put on a defensive line with Pahlsson and Versteeg, and has thrived. He doesn't have to worry about capitalizing on scoring chances set up by Kane or Havlat or Toews. He just has to be physical and be a strong defensive forward, something his huge frame and history as a blueliner make him well-suited for. He's still overpaid and needs to go, but if that doesn't happen, at least we know how to utilize him now. I really wouldn't mind seeing Buff skate on some sort of pure checking line next year - I think it could allow him to be a valuable piece for the Hawks again.

Same story with Brouwer. I hated that he was playing up on the top scoring lines, bringing nothing to the table. Eventually he realized his role was to be a grinder, but he just hadn't developed the skills to do it right, at least not along the top scorers. But put back on the 4th line, he's been able to focus completely on grinding and his lack of offensive skills hasn't been an issue. Whether the line is better with Brouwer or Frasier isn't clear, but in either case, it's been a very productive line for what you'd want out of your energy guys.

Final thought before tonight's game - JQ has a chance to shine or shit the bed. If he has the Hawks playing aggressive like they were in Game 5, then this series will be over. But if he pulls back on the reigns in some misguided attempt to handle the pressure of being in front of the Flames crowd, then he's an idiot. And this goes for the whole game - one of the things I appreciated about Game 5 was that the Hawks continued to push forward hard even after they had established a nice lead. They never took their foots off the Flames' throats - never were content to sit back until the game was clearly out of reach.

The same thing has to happen tonight. The Hawks need to push those defensemen up and work everything hard and deep into the Flames zone. Do this and they'll get the lead - the Flames just can't handle the Hawks pressure. And once they have that lead - KEEP IT UP! JQ better have them forcing the issue the whole time.

I don't want to see them go into a "playing not to lose" formation early in the third period of a close game, or even in the second if they've got a solid lead. The Flames are too good, especially at home with their season on the line, to hope you can weather their offensive storm. That's playing to their strengths. Instead, force the Flames to worry about how their gonna keep the Hawks out of the net, and then they'll be too bogged down to mount any sort of comeback. Until we reach the final few minutes, when it'll be clear the Flames are throwing everything at you and you have to just batten down the hatches, I want the Hawks skaters taking it to them.

If they do that, I think we can see a repeat of Game 5. Might not be as obviously dominating, but I think the Hawks can get an early lead, continue the pressure to grow that lead, and then finally take advantage of how aggressive the Flames will have to be and blow it wide open.

But if the Hawks aren't aggressive, I fear the Flames will ride the home crowd and backs-against-the-wall attitude to force a Game 7. I've got a busy week already - I don't want a Game 7.

JQ, GET YOUR GOD DAMN HEAD OUT OF YOUR GOD DAMN ASS!!!!

So my boys Versteeg and Pahlsson join forces with Buff to almost single-handedly bring the Hawks back from a 3-goal deficit in half a period, only to have Joel Quenneville prove me right in a way that I really wish he hadn't. Had I written this post last night, the string of expletives I would have dropped on that mustachioed buffoon would have been long and impressive. Instead, a good nights sleep has allowed me to take a bit of time and relatively calmly explain my anger at being exactly right.


When the Hawks fired Savard without cause and gave the job to JQ, the proffered reason was Savy's lack of experience versus JQ's accomplished resume. Immediately I saw through that load of horse crap for exactly what it was - Savy was someone else's guy, while JQ was "their" guy. The Hawks brass was just too damn impatient to find out if they had something special in Savy, and instead handed over the reigns to JQ in an ill-timed and unjustifiable coaching transition four games into the season.

Could Savard have done what JQ did with this team? Hard to say, but I believe so. I think it was a hell of an accomplishment to take a bunch of kids from a longtime sorry organization and get them to believe they could actually win, as Savard did last year. Despite a lack of firepower and significant injuries all season, Savard got the Hawks within knocking distance of a playoff spot.

This year JQ elevated them to the next level, no question. But how much of it was JQ and how much of it was the natural progression of all the young players combined with the very significant additions of Campbell, Huet, and later Pahlsson (with whom they went 10-3-3)? Can you really say that JQ did anything special with these guys? Or did he just continue what Savard and Tallon started?

To be honest, all of that is secondary. Savard is gone and it's impossible to know what kind of coach he could have become. The real issue was that if you're going to get rid of Savy, why bring in a guy who's done nothing but fail in the playoffs? The stated and lone goal, which I firmly believe they are genuine about, is to win the Cup. Making the playoffs and being a contender won't cut it for this regime. So why bring in JQ, a guy who's been great at getting his team to the playoffs but has never done anything there?

Nine times (prior to this year) he's made the playoffs. Once he's made the conference finals. Never has he made the Cup finals. So no Cups, no Cup finals appearances, and only one conference final - that's the resume of a guy you hire for his playoff prowess? He's the guy who's gonna win you a cup? Really?

And to be clear, JQ had some very strong teams - they put up 114, 103, 99 and 98 points twice. And that was before the OTL rules inflated the numbers. We're talking five different legit contenders and four other very respectable squads, and all he's got to show for it is one trip to the conference finals. That's the bottom line on JQ. Don't ever forget it.


So it was no surprise to me last night to see JQ watch his team absolutely give a close-out game away, then roar back in it through a mix of talent and grit, only to give it away again thanks to JQ's horrendous approach.

It's really, REALLY simple. The Hawks have absolutely dominated the Flames all series long when they've played from behind, erasing deficits in three of the four games. But they've gotten spanked all series long early in games or when it's tied, putting themselves behind in all four games.

So what is the painfully obvious conclusion? That JQ's normal strategy - i.e. how to play the game when it's early or you're tied - is terrible. Despite matching up great against the Flames, despite all the Flames injury issues, despite being hot and the Flames being cold, JQ's approach has allowed them to outplay us all series long when everything's even.

However, as soon as we get down, JQ is forced to abandon his strategy and unleash his ultra-talented squad. They play aggressive and focus on one thing only - scoring goals. All the pressure is brought to bear on the suspect Flames defense, while the Flames potent offense is taken almost completely out of the game.

The result - the Hawks erased a late one-goal deficit in Game 1, erased an early two-goal deficit in Game 2, and erased a whopping three-goal deficit in Game 4. In the heat of playoff hockey against an accomplished veteran squad with a great coach. Freakin impressive.

Yet knowing this, knowing his team has all the momentum from that three goal comeback, knowing that the Flames are officially done if they lose go down 3-1 in the series by blowing a 3-goal lead, what does JQ come out of the second intermission and do?

He totally abandons the aggressive approach that got them back into the game and becomes more conservative then I've seen this team play ever all season. The entire third period was played in the Hawks' end (at least until the Flames scored). The Blackhawks defensemen just hung back and tried OVER AND OVER AND OVER to complete ill-advised, low percentage Hail Mary passed down the wing. Hawks forwards dumped the puck at the first sign of pressure.

There was no true effort to establish themselves in the offensive end - everything was about staying back and defending their own goal. The result - not only did the Hawks have ZERO offensive pressure in the third period, but the vaunted Flames offense was allowed to just pepper the Hawks. It was like a period-long power play - the Flames just kept working the puck in the Hawks' end, getting chance after chance, while the Hawks did their best to clear the puck up ice so they could get fresh legs in to try to keep the Flames for scoring.

WHAT THE F ARE YOU THINKING, JQ?!? GET YOUR DAMN HEAD OUT OF YOUR DAMN ASS! Don't blame this on the players - every 30 seconds they're back sitting on the bench within earshot of JQ - if he didn't want them hanging back selling out for defense, it was damn easy for him to say so.

No, this was 100% on JQ, who's gotten totally bitched this series. The Hawks have been good only when they've had to go away from his strategy and instead play aggressively to get back into a game. Yet with a series victory essentially one goal away, JQ goes totally away from what's worked and instead chooses the worst strategy I've ever seen in hockey.

I'm not exaggerating, I've never seen anything stupider than what JQ had his team doing last night. Long pass after long pass down the wing. No blueline support on the rush. Full commitment to defense, but not even in an effective way. There was no trap, no wall on the blueline - just a seeming desire to avoid going into the Flames end.

And it was SO obvious it wouldn't work. The Hawks defense had been shaky all night, and in Game 3 also. Same with Khabi's play. The Flames offense has been flat outstanding in Calgary - it was painfully clear that if they just kept getting chances, the Flames were gonna ultimately put one in the back of the net.

And that is obviously what happened. After the goal, the Hawks mounted another furious comeback, finally bringing pressure in the final minutes of the period, but by then they were trying to go to the well once too often, and didn't have the legs nor time left to make it happen.


So now we head back to Chicago, with the impressive theatrics of Games 1 and 2 nullified by a terrible trip to the Saddledome (which really looks like a saddle - who knew?). The one saving grace - that impressive comeback salvaged a bit of confidence and swagger for the Hawks. Had they been squarely beat in both games, I'd probably give the momentum edge to the Flames. But by coming back as they did, the Hawks have something they can build on. Something they can harness in conjunction with the insane crowd they'll open in front of.

The question is how long will that momentum last? If JQ once again coaches from a cranial-anus position, the Flames are gonna once again get up early and the momentum will be squarely in their corner. However, if JQ rescues his mustachioed face from his posterior, maybe he'll realize that he needs to let the Hawks skaters loose from the opening whistle.

Forwards, defense - everybody needs to play like their down a couple goals late. Pinch hard, push the puck at every opportunity, don't worry about line match-ups and short shifts - just focus on taking the game to the Flames. Put them on their heels in their own end, create chance after chance on a beatable goalie and a subpar defensive squad. Eliminate their potent offense from the equation by keeping them buried in their own end, fighting for their lives.

And when you get the lead, JUST KEEP AT IT! Don't settle back and try to milk the clock. Keep the pressure on. In this case, the best defense is a good offense. The Hawks are not a veteran, grinding lock-down defensive team. Respect that. Know that all things even, the Flames offense will beat the Hawks defense. Don't ever forget it. So put the odds in your favor by keeping the match-up about the Hawks offense and the Flames defense, where the advantage is overwhelming for the Hawks.


This series starts fresh on Saturday, with the Hawks being in the enviable position of having both the first and last game in front of the best fans on Earth. They've got the superior team, at least when they approach the game right. And, counter-intuitively, they even have a bit of momentum, thanks to the three goal deficit they erased on the road and the home crowd they're returning to.

It's up now up to JQ to get his head out of his ass and take the game to the Flames. Will he do it? Or will he continue to prove me unhappily right that he's an inferior post-season coach who the Hawks were idiotic in hiring? I've never wanted to be more wrong.

Thoughts After Game 3

Obviously you want to win them all, but I don't feel too bad after last night's loss. The Hawks came out strong, as they needed to. They got a quick goal on a power play and followed up by creating a number of outstanding chances, foiled only by bad luck and good play by Kipper. They played well all game and looked as hard-hitting, energetic, and sharp as they have all series.

But they just didn't catch the breaks (Havlat's redirect hitting the crossbar), while the Flames caught them all - a 4th line goal, a fluke shot that pinballs its way through Khabi's equipment, a shot he never evens see that follows a magic bullet path to the back of the net. Probably the biggest break the Flames caught last night happened before the game even began - Kane randomly catches the flu and can't go. Hey injuries happen, especially this time of year, but to lose a guy to the flu? That's just bad luck.

The Hawks didn't blow a lead, they didn't fail to get a needed goal, they weren't outworked or outplayed, they didn't come out flat, they didn't lay down. The Hawks played a solid game against a good team who also played well, and they just didn't catch the breaks. So is sport.

As things stood, the Hawks could afford a moral victory. But now that luxury has passed. They need to build on the good things they did in Game 3, tighten up on the bad (small let downs led to a few of those fluky goals, while slightly poor execution kept a few of the Hawks' chances from turning into goals), and win the pivotal Game 4.

And they can definitely do it. Khabi continues to play well, even if Game 3 wasn't his best outing. Sharp reminded me, for the first time in a while, why he is such a good hockey player (both with that beautifully placed shot on the first goal, and with his blazing speed, great puck control, and stellar pass on the second). Toews and Havlat are clear big-game types. Buff and the other grinder types seem to relish the challenge of being more physical. And if it really was just a flu that kept Kane out (you never know with the NHL), then it seems like he'd be back at full go come Game 4.

Defensively, Barker and Campbell (more on him later) have both played well offensively, putting a lot of pressure on the Flames. While Keith remains so solid on the blueline, I've actually been most impressed (relatively) with Seabrook - he's really played effectively on both ends. There's a confidence there that I really appreciate and the Hawks really need. And while Walker and HJ are both clearly inexperienced and a bit short on talent, they are playing hard and seem to be getting better. They won't ever be assets, but if they can keep from being detriments, the Hawks are looking good.

Each game is a world of its own, but I have faith that the Hawks can come out in Game 4 and get it done. They are the better team, they aren't intimidated by the Saddledome, and they've already had their bad luck game. They've got to smell blood in the water, knowing that a win puts them squarely in control. And they've got to respect that they've got no room for error, as a loss erases their two big opening victories.


Changing course, my buddies have been debating the worth of Brian Campbell lately, with the fairly widely accepted conclusion that he's been a bit of a bust. I have to disagree. Not that I'm fully thrilled with his play, just that I think he's not getting a fair shake.

First off, what he does well is rare and crucial to the success of any club. Campbell was brought in to spark the offense with his speed, puck carrying ability, and his work at the point. Like big men in hoops or lefty relievers in baseball, there are never enough quality offensive defensemen to fill all of the league's needs. So right away it has to be respected that on some level, just like NBA bigs and lefty relievers, any solid playmaking blueliner is gonna seem overpaid.

Second, for what he does, Campbell is one of the best. His 45 assists rank third in the entire NHL among defensemen. Third. His mark on the Hawks is clear - they're one of the top scoring teams and one of the top power play units in the game. Just watching the Hawks play, its clear that no one on the club can move the puck forward like Campbell can, that no one can handle the point as well as he can.

Keith is good on the rush, but he's not as in command as Campbell, doesn't move the puck and make the passes like Campbell does. Barker is very solid on the point, but he doesn't handle passes back as well as Campbell does, nor make as many great passes. In fact, a great majority of Barker's power play points come from rifling the puck at the net. That's a solid and necessary skill, but it doesn't replace Campbell's ability to cycle the puck to the highly talented playmakers the Hawks have on their PP units.

Finally, Campbell's defensive impact needs to be respected. He's not a great defensive defenseman, but he's also not bad. Ideally, Campbell would be paired with a strong veteran stay-at-home type so he can feel confident aggressively moving the puck forward to spark the rush. Instead, Campbell's had to deal with the opposite - he's generally got to keep one eye behind him to ensure that he can cover for the mistakes of Barker, Wisniewski, Walker, Johnson, or HJ, all of whom he's had to skate with this year. How much better would both Campbell's offensive and defensive numbers be if he was paired with Seabrook all season?

And the numbers back up Campbell's relatively solid defensive play - for an offensive blueliner, Campbell is at least middle of the road defensively. Of the five defensemen who had 45+ assists, only one had a higher plus/minus than Campbell's +5. Of the thirty blueliners who had 30+ assists, only ten had plus/minus of 7 or more.

The final question is whether all of this makes Campbell worth his huge contract. First, I'd say it's garbage to judge a guy on one season. Players have their ups and downs, so its possible this was a bit of a down year for Campbell and now that he's more comfortable (and has one coach all year and established teammates), he'll be even better next season.

Second, as I mentioned above, to have the necessary offensive blueliners, you're going to have to pay good money. Remember also, the Hawks got Campbell without sacrificing any talent of their own, so again, they had to pay for it as part of the free agency premium. Finally, the Hawks knew it was necessary in their development to win this year and next. They needed to build their players' confidence and gain them post-season experience. And in order to do that, the Hawks needed to improve their blueline significantly. So in two years when it appears Campbell might keep the Hawks from re-signing someone they want, remember that they wouldn't be a Cup contender if they hadn't brought on Campbell in the first place.

Third - it's not yet clear that the Hawks will have to give up anyone they can't replace. I can't say I fully understand how the hockey cap works - it's seems fairly complicated and nuanced. Certainly with all the talent the Hawks have, they've got their work cut out for them fitting everybody in. But I'm not gonna worry about hypotheticals until I've got seen some real indications that the Hawks are losing guys they can't easily replace. Between Sopel, Buff, and their goalies, the Hawks have some cap space to work with moving forward, so it's possible they can keep everyone in the fold.

I'm not saying that I'm 100% convinced Campbell is worth the money they paid. $7M for 8 years is an absurd commitment. I'm just saying that the jury is still very, very out on this one. There are enough factors in his favor and there's plenty more I need to see of Campbell before I can confidently judge this decision. For now, I like a lot of what I've seen, I appreciate a lot of what he brings, but I also am hoping it gets better on a lot of levels next season.

Game 1 Thoughts

First and foremost - holy balls was that amazing! A late goal to tie it and then an OT score 12-seconds in? The crowd couldn't have been more insane after those goals. Just unreal. It's what I've been dreamin of since the Hawks first showed signs of something legit last year.

Second - the Flames were clearly the veteran team lead by an accomplished coach early, manhandling an inexperienced team out of its element. Maybe it was the superior talent (the Flames blue line is SO thin that Anders Erickson skated almost 23 minutes last night - his first 23 minutes of NHL time all year!) or maybe it was finding it in their guts when nothing else was working, but combined with the great play of Khabi, the Hawks somehow stayed in it early despite being badly outplayed.

However, after the first goal against, the Hawks settled a bit and really stepped it up late in the first when Toews went off with a 4-minute high sticking. I said it'd be feast or famine at that point, with a goal burying the Hawks but a kill energizing them. While the crowd was too slow in returning to their seats after the intermission to provide a boost when the final 30 seconds ticked off on the penalty to start the second, the Hawks themselves clearly stepped it up.

After being out-shot 10-5 in the first, the Hawks were near even at 11-10 during the second. Cam Barker stepped up and followed his own rebound with a goal that finally brought the crowd back to a full roar. Though to it's credit, the crowd never went away, it just didn't have any excuse to unleash it's full power. But it never got quiet or seemed out of it, just waiting for the right moment to come back.

Entering the third, the game was either teams to take. The Hawks had turned the tide a little, but the Flames still were making plays, getting chances, and frustrating the Chicago skaters. That was all evident when 4 minutes into the third, Barker screwed up a pinch and Walker couldn't cover his mistake, allowing Cammalleri to convert a beauty pass from Langkow.

However, at that point the Flames quit being the experienced team lead by a great coach. They made a rookie mistake, both on ice and behind the bench. With 16 minutes left and up against a potent offensive squad whom they'd kept in check for the majority of the game, there was no reason to change their approach.

Yet that is exactly what the Flames did. They got super conservative, gave the Hawks room to manuever, and didn't push hard to capitalize on how overly aggressive the Hawks (especially their blueliners) were being. The Hawks ended up bringing full pressure, to the extent of a 12-4 third period SOG advantage, which was far greater at the 5:33 mark, when Havlat followed his own rebound with the tying goal.

Only then did the Flames wake back up and turn the pressure on. However, by then the Hawks were tied, the crowd was electric, and the players had some confidence. The Flames ended up with a number of prime chances, fanning on near open net shots and stumbling around with others. After Havlat's tying goal, the Hawks almost seemed lucky to reach OT (really - at one point with only a few minutes left, a Flame blatantly missed an easy pass or rebound that would have given him a nearly impossible to miss chance on net).

We'll never know, but I'm not convinced if the Hawks didn't score 12 seconds into OT that they would have been able to win that game. Sure, they could have caught a similar break at some other point, or simply finally found their groove or wore the Flames down (especially the defenders, of whom only three - Phaneuf, Leopold, and Aucoin - are used to playing signficant NHL minutes). But the way the Flames outplayed the Hawks early and then again when the game was tied late in the third, I fear that the Flames would have finally capitalized on one of those great chances in OT and sent everyone home in a bad mood.

As it stood, the Hawks and us fans are walking on air right now. I said all game that stealing this one would be huge - somehow overcoming the early jitters and the good play of the Flames to walk away with a W would be a major boon for us while a key defeat for Calgary. Now the Hawks can feel a bit of confidence, regroup with their first taste of the playoffs behind them, and know that they can and should beat these guys.


Moving forward, a few key thoughts. First, the Flames advantage should only decrease as the Hawks get more experience and confidence and the Flames lack of depth begins to take it's toll. But the Hawks can't afford to let up, as if the Flames win Game 2, they don't have to feel bad about blowin Game 1, walking out of Chicago with the game in hand they needed. If the Hawks take Game 2, then the Flames literally have no room for error, facing a young team with sky-high confidence who isn't afraid of the Saddledome. If the Hawks lose Game 2, they have to really come to play in Game 3. Even if they lose that too, a strong showing will convince them that a win there is possible, setting them up to take Game 4 before heading back to the warm embrace of the Hawks faithful for two of the final three.

I'd like to see JQ quit trying to outsmart himself. The fourth line has done its job all year - why the hell would you switch it up in the first game of the playoffs? Just put Frasier out there and sit Brouwer down. And if Sharp isn't 100% (and given his lack of PT lately, even if he is physically, his hockey skills aren't fully back yet), you've got to break up the Toews-Havlat-Kane line. Put Havlat back with Bolland and Ladd (the line that, in perfect harmony with all parts contributing exactly as you'd hope, got that OT winner). Keep Toews and Kane together and try to figure out whether Versteeg (giving you another playmaker - a Havlat light), Buff (giving you some size and a workman to dig in the corners), or Sharp (giving you a shooter to capitalize on the playmaking) works best with them (all have skated with them at various points, so they have some familiarity). Then just put the other two down on the checking line with Pahlsson, giving you a solid unit there as well.

It's not just for strategy that I'd go back, but the fact that the Hawks lines look uncomfortable out there together. They already are uncomfortable and tight because it's the playoffs - try to combat that by keeping them with familiar mates rather than exacerbate that by putting them on unknown lines. Also, by balancing the scoring onto a few different lines, you'll be better able to capitalize on the woefully thin Flames blueline. With Havlat, Toews, and Kane on one line, the Flames can put their best checking unit and best defensive pairing out there every time (especially in Calgary, when the Flames have last shift) and hide their weaker blueliners against the less potent other lines of the Hawks.

But if Toews, Kane, Havlat, Sharpe, Bolland, Ladd, and Versteeg are coming at you on three different well-designed lines, the Flames defenders will ultimately be exposed. That'll allow the Hawks to score and get the Flames out of their comfort zone offensively as well. With even solid execution, the Hawks could take this series in 5 or 6.


Some random notes to finish up:

-I found it interesting to see Aaron Johnson skating before the game. Is this a playoff thing, or have I never noticed that healthy scratches skate before the regular season games too? Also, what's the time out rule in OT? It was over so quickly I didn't notice if each team got to start with a fresh TO every extra period.

-As much as I loved Belfour when he was on the Hawks, he was the opposite of steady. He was brilliant or retarded, so you were worried going into every game, even going into every period or play. You just never were confident that he was gonna be the rock every fan wishes they have in net.

So it was pretty damn sweet to look in our net just before the drop and see Khabi. With the way he's been playing all year and how hot he's been down the stretch, my confidence in our goal keeping was unshakeable. And rightfully so - the guy was steady and spectacular both, doing everything you'd want. And I have every confidence it'll continue, as Khabi is just that kind of player.

It makes me wonder about next year - I've professed a contentment with Huet, but I feel like it's gonna be a real step back in the playoffs. Huet is solid, but unless he's hot, he's just not the rock that Khabi is. I wonder if there's any possibility we'll move Huet to a goalie-starved team and re-up with Khabi. They're about the same age, so it's not like we're trading youth. Gonna be curious to see how that goes. Especially because Khabi is a playoff guy - he's got to know the Hawks give him one of the best shots in the league at going deep these next few years.

-I really wish the Hawks had locked up Havlat already because with each passing game like last night, his price just skyrockets. He seems to have professed a genuine desire to stay in Chicago, but he'd be about the millionth local athlete to seem that way and end up elsewhere all the same. Hopefully they do lock him up, because as much as I'd like to pretend we can just use that money elsewhere, the reality is that talents of Havlat's sort are impossible to find.

Hawks v Flames - 1st Round Series Preview (Part 2)

So what are the Flames bringing to the table personnel wise? I can't say for sure what their lines will look like, but here's my best guess. And even if the combinations change, this still should give you a good idea of what the Flames are skating with each night.

The Hawks were able to keep the potent combo of #12 Iginla and #13 Cammalleri in check during their four games this year, but that was before the Flames added the big and talented #21 Jokinen to center that line. All four can create and score, and all four have been playing at high levels for a number of years. The big question is Jokinen, who's known to disappear for stretches. After going gangbusters in his first few games with the Flames, he's really quieted. Whether or not he turns it on could be a significant factor in the series.

The second line will be headed by veteran #22 Langkow, a longtime producer, and should feature the infamous #7 Bertuzzi, who while no longer the 40-goal scorer he once was, still is a dangerous power forward. By process of elimination I've also got #25 Moss up on this line, who showed some real scoring skill in his first full season in the NHL.

The third line center is veteran #24 Conroy, an old-timer who packs just enough scoring punch with solid work in the face-off circle and good checking ability to be a real asset. My logic here is that #20 Glencross and #17 Bourque, with similarly strong +/- numbers, must have skated together a good amount throughout the year. If these three are together (or even just two of them), you're looking at a balanced line that plays solid defense and can put pucks in the net when necessary.

Bourque's number are especially of note, as he was unceremoniously dumped by the Hawks in the off-season, a move that looks pretty poor given all the ice time received by the likes of Brouwer and Buff this season. Note too that Bourque did it in only 58 games due to an injury that he only just came back from (possibly not yet at full speed).

Youngster #16 Boyd has done a solid job centering the 4th line all season, so I'm guessing he continues in that role. He'll probably be joined by fellow young grinders #23 Nystrom and #45 Lundmark. Lundmark is an interesting story, as he's bounced between the AHL and NHL for a while, before finally settling in with the Flames down the stretch and tallying 8 goals and 8 assists in only 27 games. Unaccomplished third and fourth liners getting hot in the playoffs is a yearly event in the NHL - could Lundmark be this year's unexpected difference maker?

In general, much like the Hawks, the Flames are looking to get scoring from all four lines and have a number of different ways to hurt you. They've got some size, playmakers, and a bunch of guys with nice scoring touches. But they don't have a lot of speed, which will make it hard for them to keep up with the Hawks. The Flames will have to make up for that with a good approach that disrupts the Hawks offense while allowing them to keep pressure on the Chicago blueliners.


The Flames defense is lead by Norris Trophy contender #3 Phaneuf, a talented two-way defenseman who logs a boatload of minutes. Early reports have him paired with #40 Leopold, acquired at the trade deadline to add depth to a blueline that's been ravaged by injuries. Ex-Hawk pariah #33 Aucoin has resurrected his career with two strong seasons in Calgary after being a total free agent bust here in Chicago.

Ideally for the Flames, Aucoin would be paired with a strong veteran defender like #28 Regehr or #6 Sarich, but injuries to both probably will keep them out, at least for a game or two. Instead, Aucoin could skate with rookie #55 Pardy or with another pair of ex-Hawks pariahs, #8 Erickson and #4 Vandermeer.

Erickson is an especially interesting case, especially for Hawks fans. It was Erickson who was the lynchpin in the wholly misguided decision to trade Chelios to the Red Wings. After missing huge parts of two of his three seasons in Chicago, Erickson has been up and down, mixing solid seasons in the NHL with time in the AHL. After two straight respectable years, including last season with the Flames, Erickson was buried in the AHL all year thanks to the Flames maxed out payroll leaving no space for his modest $1.5M salary number. But with all the injuries to the Flames blue line, it looks like his first taste of NHL action this year will be in the playoffs.

In all, the Flames defense without both Regehr and Sarich is very thin and very iffy. The presence of either would help solidify things a bit, but if neither can return this series, the Flames will have to get some impressive minutes out of a number of subpar blueliners. Again, with the right approach the Flames can reduce their exposure, but it'll be up to the Hawks skaters to capitalize on this weak blueline.


In net, the Flames are wholly reliant upon #34 Kiprusoff, who started a ridiculous 76 of their 82 games. In fact, since carrying his club to the finals in 2004, Kiprusoff has logged at least 74 games in every single season. That work load has taken it's toll, as his GAA has gone from 1.70 in 2004 to 2.07, then 2.46, up to 2.69, and finally to this year's 2.84. His save percentage has likewise plummeted each season, from .933 the year of the cup run, down to .903 this year.

Still, Kipper has found a way to win, with his 45 victories this year a career high. Not once has he failed to win 39 games in a full season. And in the playoffs, Kipper has, for the most part, remained fairly tough, posting a .921 and .929 save percentage in the 06 and 07 post-season.

However, last year was a total disaster, as despite pitching one shut-out, Kipprusoff still had a .908 save percentage and a brutal 3.21 GAA. Those are the kind of numbers the Hawks need to hang on Kipper - he's been over-worked, doesn't get much support from his skaters, and now is fronted by a blueline that is severely undermanned due to injuries.


In all, I couldn't begin to say what's gonna happen in this series. So many things point to the Hawks taking this, possibly even with ease, but I just can't shake the lingering feeling that the NHL playoffs rarely go to form, especially in early round series. While it's obvious to point to the huge experience difference between these two teams, I think it really could make all the difference. I do feel it could help the Flames play better than they should on paper, while keeping the Hawks from playing as well as they have.

And let's not forget - the Flames finished with the same 46 wins the Hawks did. They may be a bit thin cause of the injuries and coming off a rough finish to the regular season, but they're still a talented hockey club who's been there before.

So no predictions involving my Hawks, mainly because I'm superstitious, but also because I couldn't confidently say which Flames and which Hawks teams will show up.

Hawks v Flames - 1st Round Series Preview (Part 1)

Here it is, everything I've been able to put together about the Flames, in hopes that it'll give us all a better idea of our opponent as we watch all of these games. Today - Part 1. Part 2 later today/tomorrow.

Of note - the Flames are the last team that Hawks beat in a playoff series, back in 1996.

Quick Hawks-Flames history - in the late 80s, the Hawks had a good team, but couldn't break through. Twice they made it to the conference finals, once losing to the Oilers dynasty, the other time losing to the Flames on their way to their only Cup. I bring that up mainly to stroll down memory lane with that Cup winning roster - Doug Gilmour, Joe Nieuwendyk, Al MacInnis, Gary Suter, Gary Roberts, Theo Fleury, Stu Grimson, and Mike Vernon. It's like a who's who of NHL 94.

Following their loss to the Hawks in 96, the Flames posted seven straight non-playoff years. Then in 03-04, they got good (94 points) and made an impressive run to the finals. First they won a 7-game series, then beat the Wings, took the Conference by beating the Sharks in 6, before finally losing to the Lightning in 7. That team had only three things going for it - an absurdly awesome Kiprusoff in net (1.69 GAA in the regular season!) who got even hotter in the playoffs, a 40-goal scorer in Iginla (when 40 goals often lead the league), and teamwide great defense. No one else had 50 points or 20 goals. It was all defense, goal-tending, and Iginla.

After that run came the lockout, then a 103 point season which ended in a 7-game first round playoff loss to the Ducks. They've fallen a bit the past two seasons, with 96 and 94 points, again losing in the first round. Along the way, their offense has raised itself to the top half of the league, but their amazing defense has steadily fallen to mediocrity.

That trend has continued this year. The Flames 3.1 goals per game is good for 9th best in the NHL, 4th best in the West (behind the Wings, Sharks, and our Hawks' 3.2 average). And they've earned their goals, as the Flames Power Play unit has been one of the worst - converting only 17% of their chances for the 10th worst unit in the game. That means at even strength, the Flames are as dangerous as they come (3rd best in the NHL, the Hawks are 6th, thanks partly to being one of the best 4x4 teams out there).

But defensively, the Flames have again gotten worse. Their 3.0 goals against tally is 8th worst in the NHL and the absolute worst among all the post-season squads. Some of that is on the PK unit, which at a meager 83.4% stop rate, is the 4th least effective in the entire league. But a lot more of that is at even strength, where the Flames have the league's 7th highest GAA.

Can the Flames hope to just outscore opponents, as they've done all year? In the playoffs, that generally doesn't happen, especially not against a high-flying team like the Hawks. Instead, the Flames are going to have to figure out the game in their own end to have any chance. In net, across the blueline, and on the lines - all six guys on the ice have to step up their defensive game in a big way to have any shot.

Another bit of perilous news for the Flames, who as the 5th seed do not control home ice advantage - they are a very poor road team. For a team who's 46 total Ws rank 5th in the league, being in the middle of the pack with a mere 19 road victories is a tough pill to swallow. Obviously this means that the Flames are a real tough home team - their 27 home wins is 5th best - but the Hawks won both games in Calgary this season (3-2 in OT and 5-2), so the Flames can't expect the Hawks to roll over when they come to the Saddledome.


Don't be fooled, though - the Flames bring three key elements to the table that the Hawks need to answer. First is Mike Keenan, one of the more successful hockey coaches in the modern day. In his first 11 seasons (4 with Philly, 4 with the Hawks, 1 with the Rangers, 2 with the Blues), he made the post-season every time, went to the Cup Finals four times with three teams, and finally lifted the chalice in 1994, with the Rangers.

Of course, since then Keenan has been on a downward spiral, only finding success again last year with the Flames. In 1997 he was fired by the Blues, then got fired midway through a second bad season with the Canucks, then resigned after one bad year with the Bruins, before again resigning, this time after three poor seasons in Florida.

Last year, Keenan took over the Flames, returned them to the playoffs (his first time back since that 11-season run), and lost a heartbreaking 7-round series to the Sharks. This year, it looked like he had the Flames back up a notch, as the clear winners of their division and a near-contender. But a string of late-season injuries left his club barely able to field a full collection of skaters, and the Flames' division lead finally was lost to the Canucks in the final week of the season.

Still, you can't ignore what Keenan has done in the past - he's found a way to make playoff teams into playoff successes. That's his strength as a coach. The team he has now is full of playoff experience and built a bit more in the way Keenan wants them. It would not surprise the astute hockey fan to see the Flames win this series, or even to do so handily, simply because of what Keenan can do with a solid team.


The second element the Flames bring is experience - with three straight trips to the postseason, even the young guys have gotten a solid taste. On top of that, eight of their top skaters have been in the league for more than 8 seasons. And their goaltender, Kipprusoff, has not only played a ton of playoff hockey, but he showed in 2004 that he can carry a subpar squad to the Cup Finals.

When you couple the Flames wealth of experience with the Hawks near total lack of it, you've got a mighty big wild card in the Flames' favor. Stanley Cup hockey is different than during the regular season and knowing how best to play it is a significant advantage. There has to be a healthy fear that the Flames will be able to take the Hawks out of their game, frustrating the offense and creating chances at the expense of the defense. This is a story that's played itself out many times in hockey's past.

However, the Hawks aren't fully lacking in this area. They do have a few guys who've played a lot of Cup hockey, most notably their shut-down center in Pahlsson and Khabi. Those are two key spots, especially goalie, and that can go a long way to stabilizing the rest of the green skaters. Ladd, Campbell, and Havlat also have significant post-season resumes that should help them anchor the team a bit. But that leaves a lot of key players getting into their first post-season situation, or at least their first as a significant contributor.

One thing that really could help balance the experience factor a bit - the Flames have a lot of injured players. Primeau, Giordano, and Warrener all are steady grinder type vets who'd have been very valuable this time of year for the Flames, but are out for the year. Sarich and Regehr are very capable blueliners with signicant resumes, both doubtful for Game 1. Where those guys should have been playing will be guys without experience, evening things a bit for the Hawks.


The final element the Flames have is their incredible multi-faced offense. More details to come tomorrow, but in brief, they skate a 20-, 21-, 21-, 29-, 35-, and 39-goal scorer. Their other three top line forwards all racked up over 27 assists. The 4th line features an 11-goal scorer and a guy who put in 8 goals in only 27 NHL games. Even the blue line chips in, with a pair of double-digit goal scorers and two others with 17+ assists.

And because they've all been to the playoffs, these offensive weapons know that it takes a whole lot more to continue scoring int he post-season. Again, the Flames can't expect to win a bunch of high scoring affairs on their way to the second round - that's rarely how playoff hockey operates. But if they can shore up their defense a little, the Flames offense can provide a significant cushion for the subpar defensive efforts.

Hawks v Flames - Preliminary Thoughts

So the ESPN "Experts" came out with their picks today. I put experts in quotes because these guys are tools - of the six guys picking eight different series (so 48 total picks), they chose a whopping 4 upsets - and all of them were the #6 Canes beating the #3 Devils (one of the colder teams in the NHL ending the season).

Really?!? How long have you been following the NHL, guys? The playoffs never go to form, with even #1 seeds losing in the first round with regularity. You're getting paid to analyze, write, and talk about hockey - what we call a dream job - how about putting in a bit of actual effort and insight, having a set, and trying to predict one of the many upsets that will happen in the first?

Not one of you sees the red hot Blues taking down a very a good, but certainly not great Canucks team? The Flyers have no chance against the Penguins, despite their near identical records? Boston or Washington aren't a little bit vulnerable? The Wings and Sharks couldn't be caught looking forward to their "inevitable" Western Conference Finals showdown?

And closest to home - all six of you are convinced the playoff-experience filled Flames, headed by NHL playoff coaching beast Mike Keenan, are going to lose to the barely-not-teenaged Hawks and their mediocre playoff performing coach?

Hey, I wish nothing more than these guys to be right and for the most part, I actually enjoy ESPN's team of hockey analysts, even if none of them answer my emails (Tim Kirkjian and Jason Stark they will never be!). But the fans deserve more - they want to have an inkling of the upsets to watch for and to know why they should shake out that way. It's the "experts" job to elucidate those, not just toe the obvious line of the better regular season teams winning each match-up. Way to earn those paychecks!


As for the Hawks and Flames, I don't think it's as clear cut as I wish it were. Sure, the Hawks have owned the Flames, the Flames are fairly banged up, and the Hawks seem to be hitting their stride at the right time (especially in goal). But the Flames have a great coach and a boatload of playoff experience, while the Hawks do not have either.

Not that JQ is bad, but he really hasn't earned his stripes yet. I think he's reached one conference finals in the 11 years he's gone to the post-season - sorry, that ain't gonna cut it. It's one of the reasons I was opposed to his hiring in the first place - because the Stanley Cup is all that matters, and JQ hasn't show any more ability than Savard to get his team there.

Having said that, JQ has done a fine job with the squad this year and maybe he just needed the right team, which he now has in the Hawks. Not to say they'll go the Cup this year, but maybe they'll take the necessary steps this season to get there in the next year or two.

To me, the necessary steps are getting to the playoffs, winning a post-season series, and competing in the second round. The Hawks have accomplished that first step, now they're ready for the second. And I see three keys to the Hawks making it happen:


1. Khabi not getting outplayed by Kiprusoff. Kipper has been very mediocre while Khabi, outside of a rough stretch after his injury, has been outstanding. So you'd think this one would be a pretty good bet, especially because Khabi just needs to be Kipper's equal, not better. I think the Hawks are a more well-rounded team, so as long as the Flames don't get a significant advantage out of their goal play, the Hawks should have a really good shot at taking the series.

But you never know with goalies - Khabi might let in a soft one early and get out of his comfort zone. Or Kipper might face 40 shots and stop them all in Game 1, riding that confidence to a stellar series. Goalie play is a fickle mistress, and like all women, is wholly unpredictable (haha - just kidding my female readers!).

(no, I'm not)

(haha, again, kidding!)

(no...)


2. Pahlsson doing the job he was brought in for. There's no question the Flames have had success this year because of their offense, averaging over a goal a game thanks to six different 20-goal scorers. The Flames are similar to the Hawks in that they get that scoring from all four lines, but even more than the Hawks, the Flames rely on one line to really carry them. Iginla is one of the best players in hockey, while Cammalleri's 39 goals were third in the entire Western Conference. With the mid-season addition of Olli Jokinen, a consistent 30+ goal scorer, the Flames have a fearsome threesome on their #1 line.

So is Pahlsson and whomever JQ matches with him up to that stiff challenge? It's a question because we're not sure how recovered Pahlsson is from his bout with Mono, how effective he can be on this team, and who JQ will pair with him.

If Sharp is healthy and near 100%, I'd put him and Versteeg together with Pahlsson and would have every confidence they could keep the Jokinen-Iginla-Cammalleri line in check through a combination of good defensive work and an application of pressure in the other end.

I don't think the Hawks can hope to shut this line down (as they did in the regular season), but if they can keep them from going off, I like our chances.


3. Keep the offensive pressure on in the form of high shot counts every game. My biggest fear with the Hawks inexperience is that the veteran-laden Flames squad will be able to take the Hawks scorers out of their game to the point where they're not even getting shots. If the Hawks aren't getting shots, not only will their offense obviously suffer, but then the potent Flames offense will be even more free to take the pressure to the Hawks.

Especially given the letdowns we've seen with the Hawks defense when they aren't going well, it's crucial that they not allow the Flames offense to get up to full speed. Keeping the shots on Kipper will keep the Flames thinking defensively and thus buy the Hawks blueliners and Khabi a bit more room to protect their own end.


Already done most of the preliminary research on the Flames for my big preview post - look for it late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

New Line Thoughts

It's probably a pretty good guess that with the success the Toews-Kane-Havlat has had of late, that those three will skate together in the playoffs. It's not for sure, especially if Sharp is out, because loading all of your scoring onto a single line is dangerous if the other team can roll out a solid defensive line that can nuetralize you. However, as the good people at the Committed Indian pointed out in their Wednesday night edition - how do you break up a line that is having that much success?

Further complicating the Hawks line situation is Sharp - it sounds like he's out for sure this weekend, so what are the odds he'll be back to go by Thursday? It's impossible to guess as so little information is available, so I'll throw out my two different line combinations:


WITH SHARP

Toews-Kane-Halvat - it's scary to have them all on one line... both for the Hawks and the other team. My biggest concern is that they might try to force things too much, knowing that the bulk of the scoring responsibility is on their shoulders. Especially with Toews and Kane never having seen the post-season, this could be a recipe for disaster. On the other hand, if they can show a little early success, it could be just the confidence boost the kids need to elevate their game.

Bolland-Ladd-Buff - Clearly this line takes a hit without Havlat on it, but Bolland does make things happen and Ladd is a fairly solid all-around player. As always, the question is whether Buff comes to play. If he's got the intensity and desire, then Buff can do a lot of little things that Bolland and Ladd can take advantage of. He also is capable of capitalizing on the good set-ups of Bolland and Ladd by getting some clean up goals.

Pahlsson-Versteeg-Sharp - This line would serve dual purposes, shutting down the opposing teams top line and giving the Hawks a legit second scoring line. Pahlsson isn't a great offensive player, but he's capable. Plus, his great face-off skills and top notch defensive work would both spur the offense. Versteeg and Sharp are both top offensive players who would pair well - Versteeg is a creator while Sharp is a scorer. Plus, they are skilled defensive forwards who are committed in both ends.

Frasier-Burrish-Eager - Yep, Brouwer is sitting in my ideal lines because the guy doesn't add anything. Some might argue that Eager should sit so Brouwer can bring some more skill to this line, but I'm not buying. Eager has skills of his own and I like how this line has skated together. Plus, as I said, Brouwer is worthless. Go back to the AHL and become Steve Maltais Jr. already (no knock on Steve, who is a legendary IHL and AHL player).


WITHOUT SHARP

Toews-Kane-Havlat - Again, I'd probably break them up anyway, but most certainly if Sharp wasn't around to balance the scoring. Still, I'm gonna assume JQ sticks with this set-up.

Bolland-Ladd-Versteeg - My thought here is that this line worked very well with Havlat on it and Versteeg is a poor man's Havlat. You'd have a decent shot at these guys providing scoring and you'd have a fairly solid defensive unit as well. It's not an ideal second line, but it's at least capable.

Pahlsson-Brouwer-Buff - The one thing I'd say about Brouwer is at least he might be able to handle himself on a true checking line. Buff is the bigger question mark, but the fact that he's a defensemen by trade suggests that if put in the situtation to play on a more defensive line, that he could get it done. Again, this is far from ideal, but I think giving Brouwer and Buff a defined and attainable goal - just play good defense every shift - could be the best thing for setting them up for success. It's a lot on Pahlsson to turn this into a good checking line, but honestly, what other options are there?

Frasier-Burrish-Eager - As I mentioned in my original post, I'd have Eager up on one of the top lines because I think he could bring something that they need. Especially with Sharp out, I'd take my chance that Eager could be a nice combo with one of the other lines and then have Brouwer or Buff back on this line. Unfortunately that won't happen this year, but the upside is that this 4th line has done very well together and will continue to be an asset.

Hawks vs. Blue Jackets

The Hawks have put themselves in fine shape with their victory last night (4-2 over Nashville) - they now sit at 99 points, have three games left (2 at home), and hold a 3 point lead over both Calgary and Vancouver. Given that one of those teams is guaranteed to earn the #3, for the Hawks to blow the #4 seed, they'd have to not win a single remaining game, not make overtime in 2 of them, and have both Calgary and Vancouver win both their remaining games.

I think it's safe to say that the Hawks are gonna be the #4 seed when the playoffs start next Wednesday, the 15th. Only two questions remain - 1st is who will they play. Conventional wisdom says the Hawks are rooting for Calgary to fall to #5, as they've owned them. However, they hold the tiebreaker with Vancouver (more wins), so the Canucks are gonna have to pick up a point over these next two games. If they don't, the Hawks will have to figure out a way to solve Luongo while also keeping a strong Vancouver offense team from lighting them up.

The second question - when will the Hawks officially clinch the #4? The hope - tonight, at home, versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the way the Hawks have heated up lately, the crowd should be a-rockin. If they can play strong early, even snag a lead right away, it's gonna be a madhouse.

So what are they facing tonight? Columbus is Ohio's first NHL team since the Cleveland Barons merged with the Minnesota North Stars in 1978 (the last time a major pro team ceased independent operations). They started play in 2000 (along with the Minnesota Wild) against our very own Hawks. And it's been all downhill since.

The Blue Jackets have never made the playoffs nor secured more than 80 points in a season. That is, until this year. They're sitting on 40 wins, 90 points, and playing for of their own tonight - the chance to clinch their first ever post-season birth. Any point by the Blue Jackets would do the trick, tho the reality is that it'd take quite a failure of them not to make it at this point. Instead, they're really focusing on positioning, hoping to retain the #6 seed (for which they have a two point lead) and thus avoid San Jose or Detroit in Round 1.

Scoring isn't the Blue Jackets forte, as they're in the bottom third of the league and dead last among the current Western Conference playoff teams. A power play that ranks dead last probably has a lot to do with that. Defense is wear the BJs have made their mark, with a Top 10 team GAA and a penalty kill unit in the top half of the league. With only 15 road wins, Columbus isn't much away from home, but at 4-2-4 over their last 10, they've been playing decent hockey of late.

What limited offense the BJs get comes from #61 Nash (38 G, 38 A), a one-time 40 goal scorer who could turn the trick again this year. #20 Huselius (21 G, 35 A) is a proven scorer, while #18 Umberger (26 G, 19 A) is their top scoring center. #27 Malhotra (11 G, 23 A) and #50 Vermette (15 G, 24 A) are also a key centerman, playing well in both ends and winning 58% of their draws. Vermette was a mid-season pick-up from Ottawa, and has finally filled the huge hole left when Calder candidate #16 Brassard (10 G, 15 A in 31 games) was lost for the year. 19-year old #93 Voracek (9 G, 28 A) and former Hawk #29 J Williams (18 G, 28 A) round out the scoring threats, while #33 Modin, #25 Chimera, and #19 Peca give the BJs significant solid veteran grinder minutes.

#51 Tyutin (9 G, 25 A) has emerged this year as a top defenseman (especially on the power play) to pair with the ever reliable #22 Commodore. Czechs #8 Hedja and #97 Klesla also provide 20+ minutes of solid but unexciting play each night, tho Klesla has been on and off Injured Reserve all year. 21-year old #10 Russell (2 G, 18 A) has emerged as a nice piece to a woeful power play.

Nash wears the C, while Modin and Klesla wear the As. #40 Boll (171 PIM) will definitely fight, as will #15 Dorsett (146 PIM in 49 games), if he's not a healthy scratch. The odds of a fight are tough to judge. On one hand, both teams really want this win, so if the energy is waining, a fight could be a nice pick-me-up. But neither team can afford to give up a power play chance or allow the other team to have one by getting into an unneeded scrap.

In net, 20 year old #1 Mason (2.22 GAA, .918 Sv %) has been a monster this season and is well on his way to winning the Calder for his work carrying his squad into it's first post-season. With 2 days off, he'll most certainly be back in net tonight.

The season series has been close (3-2) with three different games going into OT and 1 even reaching the shoot-out. The Blue Jackets are well-rested and need every point they can get to hang on to the coveted #6 slot. The Hawks are playing their third game in four nights, but know a victory clinches the #4 seed and takes the pressure off of the weekend home-and-home series with the Wings.

Should be a good one, Hawks fans.