One thought before tonight's preview:
With the Penguins coming into town and the Hawks playing as well as they have been this year, there are some very quiet whispers about the Hawks repeating Pittsburgh's run to the Cup finals last season. While the Penguins were the #2 seed in the East last year, their 102 points are actually fewer than the 106 point pace the Hawks are currently on. Both teams were driven by a bevy of young talent mixed with some key vets. Neither team had done much in the playoffs previously.
While anything can happen (more on that in a second), I don't see the Hawks being able to make their way through both San Jose and Detroit this year. One maybe, but not both, back-to-back.
However, that might not be necessary. The Stanley Cup Playoffs are unlike any other in professional sport - favorites lose as often as win, and many times that can happen in the first round. A hot goalie, a distracted team, a well-coached squad that comes together at the right time, injuries - all of these things can lead to an odds-on favorite taking an early exit.
So why couldn't San Jose or Detroit get knocked off in the first round? Detroit's got goalie issues and San Jose could easily be looking past their opening opponent (they're having a Cup or bust type season). And even if they do survive, what's to say whichever team the Hawks don't face in the 2nd round won't get knocked off by Calgary or a some other hot club? Calgary is clearly a really good team (at least when they're not playing the Hawks), on pace for 107 points.
Not to say this is an expectation or prediction, just to say that the Hawks' play up to this point has put them in the realm of possibility for a Cup run. Especially if they can shore up with a trade or two, there's no obvious reason, except a huge lack of inexperience, that they can't do it. And don't forget the Hawks most experienced player - Khabi - is playing the game's most important position.
I still say one series win would make this a great season and just putting in a strong show in the first round would make this a strong growth season, but it doesn't hurt to have some higher hopes.
On to Tonight's Match-up:
It took the Penguins a few more years to complete the downfall and their bounce-back happened sooner, but their history has mirrored that of the Hawks since they met in the 92 Finals. After a long string of unsuccessful playoff appearances, in 01-02 the Penguins missed the post-season and didn't return again until 06-07. Last year's Cup Finals run seemed to announce they were back to perennial contention, but this year has been a disaster... so far.
Crosby has been hurt on-and-off (hampering his play more than costing him games) and things recently got so bad that the head coach was canned. So far that's looked like a good move, as the Penguins have gone 3-1-1 since and are just outside of the playoff picture, fully capable of earning the #5 seed with a strong final quarter. As a respectable road team (middle of the pack) and with plenty of non-Crosby weapons still on the squad, the Penguins will be dangerous tonight.
Offensively, the Penguins are in the top third of the league, an impressive feat given how pitiful their PP Unit has been (7th worst in the league). Even w/o Crosby (23 G, 56 A), the Penguins can still definitely fill it up. Malkin actually is out-producing Crosby this year (27 G, 61 A) and paces the entire NHL in points. However, he still needs to prove himself on the big stage after disappearing for long stretches of last year's Finals. Sykora (23 G, 20 A) has fit well with Malkin (especially on the PP), while recently acquired Kunitz (16 G, 19 A) of the Ducks should pair up with Crosby. Satan (15 G, 18 A), Staal (15 G, 17 A), and Fedotenko (13 G, 13 A in 45 G) can also all fill it up.
Defensively Pittsburgh has been brutal, ranking 25th in the NHL in goals allowed. Their PKs aren't too blame, ranking near the middle. Some of it has been that toung franchise goalie Fleury (2.88 GAA, .908 Sv %) has reverted to the inconsistent form he showed prior to last season's great run, calling into question if he'll ever live up to the hype. Of course he's 24, so he's got time to bounce back again.
One major reason for their defensive issues is a lack of health on the blue line. Their ice time leader, Whitney, had only played in 28 of their 62 games before being dealt to the Ducks yesterday for Kunitz. Gonchar (2 G, 3 A in 6 G) recently returned and brings one of the better point presences in the league to their blueline. Letang, Orpik, and Scuderi have at least been in the lineup consistently, if unspectactularly, while a group of four others have been on and off the ice with various ailments.
In the odds-and-ends department, Crosby wears the C, while Malkin and Gonchar have the A's. None of their centers are particularly strong on the face-off and most are actually pretty weak. Godard is your classic goon, suiting up for most games (56 of 62), but only getting 4:15 ATOI. In that brief time, he's been able to rack up 147 PIM, so if you go after one of their stars, he's gonna search you out. Or if you're looking for a likely dance partner, he's not gonna turn you down.
I see the Hawks taking advantage of the Penguin's defensive deficiencies to put a ton of shots on goal - something they've been doing with regularity in recent games. The question will be whether those shots are going in or not. Either way, staring ahead at 16 of their final 23 at home, the Hawks are in a good place to finish with a bang. Let's hope it starts tonight.
Friday, February 27, 2009
More Rumored Names
So my secondhand inside source has thrown a few more names into the Hawks Rumor Mill:
Samuel Pahlsson, C, ANA
Pahlson is another guy who won't answer the expressed need of an offensive centerman. However, he seems like a really valuable intangibles guy. Despite only having one double-digit goal season (11 in 05-06) and never reaching 20 assists, the guy gets a ton of minutes and plays nearly every night (didn't miss a game for three straight seasons at one point).
So if he's not bringing offense but is getting trusted with a lot of minutes (he currently is third among Ducks forwards, behind only their two leading scorers), he must be a heck of a defender and face-off guy. And to some extent, the numbers bear that out. He regularly is in the 53-55% face-off win range, and his plus-minus has hovered right around zero prior to this season. For a guy who obviously is out there checking the other team's top line, that's not a bad plus-minus at all (tho it's been ugly this year - probably cause the Ducks have struggled). He's also got 13 career short-handed points, which suggests he's a regular on the PK.
When you factor in that he's a proven vet (31, 8 years in the league) with a ring (as a key checking forward with the Ducks) and costs ya only $1.4M for this year, I can see how he'd be a nice piece of the playoff push. The Hawks clearly have nothing to lose in obtaining a centerman (would anyone really miss either Buff or Brouwer?) and a lot to gain (I hate seeing either Sharp's or Versteeg's gifted play be cramped by being out of position). And while some would much rather see a high-scoring center, I'm absolutely fine with a good fundamentally sound veteran who can play defense and win face-offs.
Dominic Moore, C, TOR
A very interesting case - the guy bounced around the league without any great impact for a few seasons before finally settling with Toronto last year and starting to show some promise at the ripe age of 27. This year he's really broken out upon being given a significant role, with 11 goals (career high) and 28 assists. That assist number is almost as many as he had in his first three full seasons COMBINED. Given how horrid the Leafs are, those are impressive numbres.
As a natural centerman, solid on the face-offs (around 51-52% over his career), and playing his best hockey, Moore would be an upgrade for the Hawks. Like Pahlsson, he clearly fits a need at center. And with only a one-year $900k deal, there's no financial downside. But is this guy the best you can do? Not overly proven either offensively or defensively, is it worth messing with the chemistry? Or maybe this is another diamond in the rough, a guy who's showing talent now that he's got a shot, and could fit in as a longterm answer at center for the Hawks. Hard to say.
Samuel Pahlsson, C, ANA
Pahlson is another guy who won't answer the expressed need of an offensive centerman. However, he seems like a really valuable intangibles guy. Despite only having one double-digit goal season (11 in 05-06) and never reaching 20 assists, the guy gets a ton of minutes and plays nearly every night (didn't miss a game for three straight seasons at one point).
So if he's not bringing offense but is getting trusted with a lot of minutes (he currently is third among Ducks forwards, behind only their two leading scorers), he must be a heck of a defender and face-off guy. And to some extent, the numbers bear that out. He regularly is in the 53-55% face-off win range, and his plus-minus has hovered right around zero prior to this season. For a guy who obviously is out there checking the other team's top line, that's not a bad plus-minus at all (tho it's been ugly this year - probably cause the Ducks have struggled). He's also got 13 career short-handed points, which suggests he's a regular on the PK.
When you factor in that he's a proven vet (31, 8 years in the league) with a ring (as a key checking forward with the Ducks) and costs ya only $1.4M for this year, I can see how he'd be a nice piece of the playoff push. The Hawks clearly have nothing to lose in obtaining a centerman (would anyone really miss either Buff or Brouwer?) and a lot to gain (I hate seeing either Sharp's or Versteeg's gifted play be cramped by being out of position). And while some would much rather see a high-scoring center, I'm absolutely fine with a good fundamentally sound veteran who can play defense and win face-offs.
Dominic Moore, C, TOR
A very interesting case - the guy bounced around the league without any great impact for a few seasons before finally settling with Toronto last year and starting to show some promise at the ripe age of 27. This year he's really broken out upon being given a significant role, with 11 goals (career high) and 28 assists. That assist number is almost as many as he had in his first three full seasons COMBINED. Given how horrid the Leafs are, those are impressive numbres.
As a natural centerman, solid on the face-offs (around 51-52% over his career), and playing his best hockey, Moore would be an upgrade for the Hawks. Like Pahlsson, he clearly fits a need at center. And with only a one-year $900k deal, there's no financial downside. But is this guy the best you can do? Not overly proven either offensively or defensively, is it worth messing with the chemistry? Or maybe this is another diamond in the rough, a guy who's showing talent now that he's got a shot, and could fit in as a longterm answer at center for the Hawks. Hard to say.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
First Solid Hawks Trade Rumors of 2009
While many people have speculated about who the Hawks might be adding, a rumor came my way (thank you, Rob) that suggested not just possible options, but guys the Hawks actually may be close to acquiring.
So, here's my very uninformed take on who they are and what they'd mean for the Hawks:
Niclas Havelid, D, ATL
Havelid is a veteran stay-at-home defenseman who would definitely shore up their blue line. He's 35 and his $2.7M deal ends this year, meaning he's a rent-a-player. But his numbers are good - he's no longer a 24-25 min a game guy, but still logs 20 each time out. He's been on the positive side of the plus-minus the last four years in Atlanta, including on some bad teams.
Not too big, not too tough, but seemingly a good fundamental European defenseman. Definitely something the Hawks could use come playoff time.
The question is which defender would be out of a job? Would this guy be an upgrade over Walker? They seem to like Walker, and he brings size and youth that Havelid doesn't. So would Wisniewski sit? Seems kinda silly to sacrifice his development when he's young and shown a lot of promise.
Is Barker on the way out? With Campbell and Keith around, I don't think you need another rushing defenseman. Especially because Barker remains a serious defensive liability. That's something you can put up with if you need his offense or have great defenders otherwise, but Campbell is iffy at best and Wisnewski and Walker are prone to mistakes. That will kill you come the playoffs. On top of it all, he's probably got a boatload of trade value (most teams are sorely in need of an offensive defenseman who can put up numbers like Barker has this year on the power play) and costs the Hawks a decent amount ($2.8M and sure to rise with his stat line).
Jeff Halpern, C, TB
Halpern seems to be a solid role-player centerman. He's about a 15-goal scorer, with 25 assists- fairly steady in that production line over the years. He's 32, been on some playoff teams, and only costs $2M a year (this year and next). Gets a lot of ice time, probably solid defensively. Definitely very good on the face-off - consistently wins around 55% every year. He was hurt at the beginning of the seasion, not playing until mid-December, but over the course of his career has been fairly durable while logging a good amount of minutes.
I'd say he's an ideal 3rd line center - keeping the other teams top line in check, winning you some key face-offs, scoring occassionally. Doesn't quite fit what we're looking for in terms of a pure 2nd line center who can score 20+ and/or rack up 40+ assists.
Tho I'm not sure a pure scoring center is exactly what the Hawks need. They've got a lot of offense and I think any reasonably talented centerman would be an upgrade over playing one of their wingers out of position. I kind of like the idea of having four good defensive-minded centers out there.
Defense wins championships in hockey as much as any sport, so having your centerman all plus defenders would be a nice advantage. Especially because most of our wingers are all good defenders also. So Halpern wouldn't upgrade the offense much (a bit over either Brouwer or Buff), but the defense, experience, and face-off skills could be pretty useful in the playoffs.
So, here's my very uninformed take on who they are and what they'd mean for the Hawks:
Niclas Havelid, D, ATL
Havelid is a veteran stay-at-home defenseman who would definitely shore up their blue line. He's 35 and his $2.7M deal ends this year, meaning he's a rent-a-player. But his numbers are good - he's no longer a 24-25 min a game guy, but still logs 20 each time out. He's been on the positive side of the plus-minus the last four years in Atlanta, including on some bad teams.
Not too big, not too tough, but seemingly a good fundamental European defenseman. Definitely something the Hawks could use come playoff time.
The question is which defender would be out of a job? Would this guy be an upgrade over Walker? They seem to like Walker, and he brings size and youth that Havelid doesn't. So would Wisniewski sit? Seems kinda silly to sacrifice his development when he's young and shown a lot of promise.
Is Barker on the way out? With Campbell and Keith around, I don't think you need another rushing defenseman. Especially because Barker remains a serious defensive liability. That's something you can put up with if you need his offense or have great defenders otherwise, but Campbell is iffy at best and Wisnewski and Walker are prone to mistakes. That will kill you come the playoffs. On top of it all, he's probably got a boatload of trade value (most teams are sorely in need of an offensive defenseman who can put up numbers like Barker has this year on the power play) and costs the Hawks a decent amount ($2.8M and sure to rise with his stat line).
Jeff Halpern, C, TB
Halpern seems to be a solid role-player centerman. He's about a 15-goal scorer, with 25 assists- fairly steady in that production line over the years. He's 32, been on some playoff teams, and only costs $2M a year (this year and next). Gets a lot of ice time, probably solid defensively. Definitely very good on the face-off - consistently wins around 55% every year. He was hurt at the beginning of the seasion, not playing until mid-December, but over the course of his career has been fairly durable while logging a good amount of minutes.
I'd say he's an ideal 3rd line center - keeping the other teams top line in check, winning you some key face-offs, scoring occassionally. Doesn't quite fit what we're looking for in terms of a pure 2nd line center who can score 20+ and/or rack up 40+ assists.
Tho I'm not sure a pure scoring center is exactly what the Hawks need. They've got a lot of offense and I think any reasonably talented centerman would be an upgrade over playing one of their wingers out of position. I kind of like the idea of having four good defensive-minded centers out there.
Defense wins championships in hockey as much as any sport, so having your centerman all plus defenders would be a nice advantage. Especially because most of our wingers are all good defenders also. So Halpern wouldn't upgrade the offense much (a bit over either Brouwer or Buff), but the defense, experience, and face-off skills could be pretty useful in the playoffs.
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