And You Are...? (part I)

First and foremost, if you're heading to the UC for a game, make sure you pick up a copy of the Committed Indian gameday program outside of the stadium before you go in. Just look around a bit, the guys are always out there before the games selling it. Not only is it cheap (easily the cheapest thing you'll buy at the UC all night) and must-read Hawks commentary (as is most everything at their website, http://www.secondcityhockey.com/), but it's worth having at the game if only for the two pages that lay out the predicted lineups for each team:


This is an example from the recent game against the Canucks. Obviously you can't appreciate the detail here, but you get the idea - it's a great visual and informational layout of all you'd need to know about all the skaters you'll probably see that night. Simple, concise, and makes it really easy to keep everyone straight. I was pumped when I saw it for the first time this year, so much so that I sort of reprinted this one w/o their permission. I hope they don't hammer me for it, but I figure I'm a lawyer and they're a bunch of drunks, so...


One of the reasons the above page is especially valuable this season is because of all these new guys in the Hawks sweater are hard to keep up with this early in the year. While only the biggest names get any attention in hockey, the reality is that you definitely need contributions from at least 20 guys over the course of a season. So it's gonna take a while to understand exactly where all that production is coming from with this year.

After 11 games, at least half of which I've seen, I'm starting to get a baseline understanding of what these players might end up being when all is said and done in 2010-2011. And I'm very encouraged, as I thought I would be. It's early and we're still w/o Campbell, one of the most important pieces to our championship puzzle, but we've put up a nice lil win streak and been in every game, despite a very compressed schedule to start the year.

Sure we're getting carried by the core guys, but some of the newcomers are definitely doing their part. Hockey isn't a game where just a few strong players can do it all forever, so all the standings points we've earned mean you should be encouraged by the new guard of role players.

Here's what I've gathered on all the Hawks "newcomers" this year - I quote newcomers because I'm including everyone on this list who wasn't a regular and significant piece of the squad last season, even if they did log some time w/ the Cup winners.

Today - Goalies. Next - Blueliners. Day 3 - Forwards.

G Marty Turco, 35 years old, 9th season, $1.3M for 1 year, #30

By far the biggest off-season acquisition, Turco has a hell of a track record. He's started almost 500 games in his career and won over 260 of em (good for a stellar .580 win percentage). Before the lockout he was a beast in net, posting a GAA under 2 in his career. As the game opened up with the new post-lockout rules, Turco remained strong, winning an impressive 41 and 38 games the first two seasons out, then a still respectable 32 and 33 the years after.

Last season Marty, like the Stars, took a step back, failing to appear in 55+ games or win 30+ for the first time since he became a #1 goalie. The Hawks were wise to see thru those numbers to a guy who posted a .913 save percentage, his best since the lockout (and in fact, as good as what he posted the year before the labor break).

So how's he been doing? On opening night in Colorado, he stopped 37 of 40 shots before allowing the OT winner in. Two nights later he could must only 23 saves on 26 shots in the Banner Ceremony night against Detroit. OK, but not great and possibly cause for concern if it kept up.

Then? 4 starts, 4 Ws, and not a single one featuring anything lower than a pristine .927 save percentage, all while facing 30-40 shots a night. He followed that up with a bit of an off night, but rebounded last night with a pristine 33 saves on 34 shots against one of the hottest offenses in the entire NHL.

Now I'm not counting on Turco to end the season w/ a .921 save percentage, but it's outstanding to see he can be that good for stretches, because there will come a time in the playoffs where that's what the Hawks will need. No question right now the Hawks need some great goalie play. This is not the defensive system we saw last year, holding opponents to something like 20 or 25 shots a game. With Campbell out, Sopel and Barker gone, and so many new guys at forward, JQ's lockdown system just isn't happening.

So the fact that Turco is seeing around 35 shots a game and still has 11 out of 16 points for his squad? Yes, please. Especially on a measly $1.3M one-year deal.

And if you really wanna be sold, Niemi has four starts and been pretty terrible in three of them, while the Sharks other goalie has been absolutely sparkling. We're talking a very small sample size here, but kinda lends some credence to the idea that Niemi was a product of the system.


G Corey Crawford, 25 years old, 3rd season, $800k for 1 year, #50

That third season thing is misleading - Crawford has appeared in games each of the last two years, but he entered this season with only 5 career starts. For all intents and purposes, this guy is a rook.

So far, we've only seen three starts of his and that light workload will remain the case, as Turco is definitely a guy who wants to be in the net 60 times a year. However, Marty is getting older, the Hawks don't need to chase regular season points as desperately as most teams, and the plan certainly has to be for Turco to log 20+ games in the postseason.

All of that means that Crawford, if he can play respectably, will get 20-30 starts this year. If he can replicate what he's done in his first three, I'd be a happy camper.

He pulled out a tough W on the road against Ryan Miller and the Sabres, stopping 32 of 35 shots, and he lost a heartbreaker to the Preds when the Hawks went to sleep in the third, giving up a one-goal advantage and then losing in the final 30-seconds thanks to a horrendous penalty taken by Nick Boynton. He had another tough-luck loss against Columbus, stopping a stellar 37 of 40 shots, but coming up on the short end of a 3-2 game.

I've gotten to see two of those games and I can attest that so far this kid looks legit. I also remember him from his spot starts in seasons past and thought the same thing. A little rough around the edges but definitely capable. The excitement over Crawford has been tempered a bit by the fact that his AHL numbers were mediocre.

But chew on this - in 2008-2009, when both Niemi and Crawford were splitting time with Rockford, their numbers were about equal. The very next year Niemi was able to backstop the Hawks to a Cup. Is Crawford just as capable? Ya know, maybe. Certainly if the Hawks play the kind of D and get the kind of clutch scoring they did last season. From what I've seen - an admittedly small but still telling body of work - I think Crawford has what it takes IF, and that's definitely a bit if, he has the heart/mind to take the heat and grind of an NHL regular and post-season.

Ideally we won't find that out for another year or two, but at least for now, it's cool to know it might be the case. Keep watching him to see if his development arc suggests the same to you.


Tomorrow, I'll discuss the many new faces on the blueline (Boynton, Leddy, Cullimore, Hendry, and Scott), and next week wrap it up with the forwards (Bickell, Pisani, Dowell, Stalberg, and Skille).

As always, any comments are appreciated.

"D!" "Fence!"

So the title defense starts tonight... were you even aware? Hard to believe that it's time for hockey again, especially given how late last season went. Throw in the fact that the baseball playoffs just started, that football is only at the quarter post, and that it's pretty warm here in Chicago, and I'm just not feeling very NHL-ie right now.

Some day I'll bore you with my theory on how the hockey season should be timed (think Stanley Cup Playoffs filling the "Dead Zone" every night), but for now the NHL powers that be somehow think it makes sense to be discreet as possible when kicking off your season. You know, might as well start playing when the sporting world's attention couldn't be more diverted from you.

For the Hawks, this might actually be a good thing. As much confidence as I have in them (if I was forced to bet everything I had on just one NHL team to win it all, no question it'd be the Hawks, and that's not because I'm a homer), there's no question the Hawks are gonna need a bit of time to get everything working as they want it. There are just too many new faces, too many unproven assets, to think that there won't be growing pains, probably significant ones.

So maybe it's best that the city and our sports commentators will be distracted by the Bears O Line, another Boozer injury, and baseball teams that don't suck to hammer the Hawks for problems that are guaranteed to happen... but not guaranteed to last. I've got faith in this squad, faith in the moves that were made, faith in the overall approach to building and retaining a contending squad that this front office is following.

See, my cleverly crafted post title has two meanings. First, it represents the start of our title defense - that's a damn exciting thing to be a part of something we need to remind ourselves about. When you start doubting this squad, just remember that at the end of the day, everyone else has been shown beatable - these Hawks have yet to be.

Second, I wanted to highlight the specific reason I think WAY too much is being made of the Hawks off-season talent exodus. Simply put, the Hawks did not lose a whole lot of what made them one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and at the end of the day, in hockey just like all sports, defense is what wins championships.

Cliche, but so incredibly true. Look across every sport and you'll see the same thing - teams w/ no offense but a great defense able to win titles, while high octane offenses w/o any D always fall short. And equally as convincing - teams with great offenses only taking home the title once they finally were able to upgrade their D (think Rams, Colts, and Saints in the NFL, or the Yankees finally getting some SPs last year in baseball).

So I'm just blown away by the universal belief (based on all of the predictions I've seen) that the Hawks will not win the Cup this year. Sure, the Hawks lost a 20-, two 17-, a 10-, and two 7-goal scorers from last season. But they still have their Top 5 goal scorers and just as important, their top 7 assist men.

Yes, Versteeg, Buff, and Ladd all were valuable offensive pieces that could score and create a lot more than most role players. But not only is the majority of the Hawks high-powered O still intact, the incredible amount of talent that is there should allow the incoming role players to quickly become productive players in the opponents' end.

However, even if these youngsters don't make up for all the lost scoring (and I think they'll be close, but definitely still short), this Hawks team can still be just as good because their defense is largely intact or improved. Not just their blueliners, but their key defensive forwards and their goaltending.

Your Top 4 defenseman - all back, all still in their prime or possibly getting better (I think both the Hammer and Seabrook still have upside, scary given how good they are). Your three two-way centerman - all back, with Bolland following up a real playoff coming out party that had to establish him as one of the better shut-down pivotmen in the league.

On top of that, it's distinctly possible the Hawks have upgraded the most important single position to defense - the goalie. Niemi played solidly down the stretch and through the playoffs, gave the Hawks some big games and big stops when they needed it, and in all was the kind of goalie you can win a Cup with (an obvious statement now, but still the best way to describe him). But Niemi wasn't going to carry you to any Cups (as the Sharks will learn, if their defensive work doesn't drastically improve) and in my opinion did nothing more behind a stellar Blackhawks defensive scheme than maybe 15 or even 20 other NHL goalies could have done.

In his place, the Hawks got a guy in Turco who showed, prior to his two-year hiatus, that he could be a real beast in the playoffs, carrying a middling Dallas team to the Western Conference Finals. Back in the day he thrived in the defense-first system that former Stars coach Ken Hitchcock utilized, posting some of the best season totals out of a goalie of the last few decades. And while I think a tad bit too much is being made of it, going from the basically stickless Niemi to one of the league's top puck-handling keepers is gonna help this team on both ends.

So with three great centerman and four stud defensive blueliners back, as well as a possible upgrade in goal, doesn't it seem a bit stupid that all of the national "experts" jumped off the Hawks' bandwagon so quickly? Can't you see this squad playing the same lockdown D that carried them to one of the league's best regular season marks and then, of course, the Cup, given the great majority of the same outstanding defensive pieces?

No question Madden, Versteeg, Ladd, and Sopel, even Buff, Frasier, and Eager were contributors on the defensive end that will be missed. But are you really worried that they aren't replaceable, at least defensively? The Hawks 4th line might not have the same offensive spark it had in the past, the third line might not be the same defacto scoring line it was last year. (I say might - who knows, as the Hawks do have a lot of nice young talent that might just surprise).

But defensively, doesn't it seem plausible that the athletic, hard-working, playing-for-their-hockey lives group of youngsters the Hawks have will be real assets? Especially given JQ's demand of such? Especially given the way two of your biggest stars and leaders - Toews and Hossa - kill themselves in their own end? Especially given the fact that these new guys won't be in roles demanding much more of them than to be complimentary pieces that do all the little things?


Here's how I see it - the Hawks will stumble a bit out of the gate as the players all learn to skate with so many guys they've never shared ice time with. They'll have some troubles early without Campbell's 20-25 minutes a night for the first month or so. They'll run into some issues juggling around the youngsters, figuring out which ones are keepers and whom should play where.

But along the way they'll still be winning at a decent clip, just because they are so talented and because the NHL features a lot of teams that are very beatable. And then they'll get Campbell back, just as they've finally learned what they've got in all these new faces, finally settled on some semblance of regular lines that work top to bottom. Sure, an injury or two might crop up to slow them down, but again, the core will be enough to overcome whatever happens, just like last year (Hossa, Bolland, and KJohnsson all missing significant time).

The Hawks will enter the playoffs as a top seed, or maybe just as a #5, but still dangerous and favored by a lot of pundits. They'll scuffle a bit in the first round, as once again the newbies have to figure out what playoff hockey entails and JQ has to respond by getting the right lines set for the postseason's unique style of play.

But again, the sheer talent combined with their outstanding system will be enough for these Hawks to triumph in what is a very winnable NHL. Detroit? Always dangerous, but getting old in spots and with an unaccomplished goalie. San Jose and Vancouver? Has all that much changed for a pair of teams shown wanting year after year, both in talent and heart? Washington? Remember the title of this post. New Jersey? How many times does Brodeur after to fail when it matters for people to accept he's just not that good anymore? Pittsburgh and Philly? Probably the two teams I fear the most, but definitely both beatable if the Hawks can be what I think they will be.

So to borrow from the world of sports' greatest homer announcer - "Sit back, relax and strap it down" because the Hawks first title defense in almost 50 years is about to begin... and I'm betting it's gonna be a successful one that you're gonna want to be a part of.