Thursday, September 2, 2010

"When You Get To Hell, Tell Em Itchie Sent Ya!"

What's played out between the Hawks and the Sharks this past summer has been a pretty interesting game of cat-and-mouse. I chose the classic Simpson's line to represent such for the title of this post, but I could have just as easily chosen the Ren & Stimply mainstay "Don't Piss On The Electronic Fence."

That's because the Sharks played a dangerous game this summer in trying to manipulate the Hawks payroll to their benefit. Apparently there's sort of an unsaid agreement among front offices that you don't make offers to other team's restricted free agents. The idea being that such offers will eventually come back to inflate your own player costs, with everyone losing in the process.

Whether there really is some wink-wink agreement among teams or simply few restricted free agents really are worth making an offer to, given the unlikelihood the team doesn't match or the high cost in draft picks forfeited if they don't is something I don't actually know. But what is clear is that it just doesn't happen - Stan Bowman said as much at an early summer news conference, when he claimed he wasn't worried about restricted offers.

Whatever the case may be, the Sharks stepped in with a very aggressive offer for the young Hammer, at $3.5M per for four years. That's about the absolute high end for a defenseman without any offensive skills, without great size, and without a long track record. And it's probably a whole lot more than Bowman planned on giving the Hammer when he was forecasting his summer moves, maybe as much as $1 or even $1.5 million per year more.

In the face-off with the Sharks front office, Bowman didn't blink. He matched the offer sheet for Hammer, as he absolutely should have. Nik is a beast back on defense, the stay-at-home lockdown type that Campbell needs. A shot-blocking machine that every PK unit needs. And an already a plus player with more upside as he continues to fill out and learn the game.

As flashy as the Hawks are up front, at the end of the day they win and lose because of their great defensive system. And the Hammer was a crucial, can't-lose piece of that system. I'm so glad that the Bowman brain trust felt that way too.

By matching, Stan had to first send Marty Reasoner packing. I'm not sure if this was in the works anyway, but it'd seem odd to trade for a guy you knew you'd dump shortly. I think the Hawks hoped there'd be just enough for a $1M defensive centerman for the 4th line. As it turns out, that became a luxury the team couldn't afford.

Much more impactful though was the fact that Bowman had to also let Cup-winning young backstop Antti Niemi go. Sure they pretended to be negotiating up to the arbitration meeting, but the reality is that after the Hammer re-signing, the Hawks front office knew that even if they won in the Neimi hearing, they'd still lose him. There just wasn't a dollar amount that Niemi was gonna accept nor that the arbitrator was going to award the Hawks that would have fit the payroll slot that remained.

This is especially true because apparently Marty Turco was locked and loaded in the wings. All reports are that he avoided signing anywhere else - including for more money with Cup runners-up the Flyers - because he specifically wanted to come to the Hawks and had indications that they felt the same way. You can't help but believe this when you saw how quickly after the decision the Hawks cut Niemi free and locked up Turco for this year.


Last week the final piece of the Sharks plan came into focus. With only the unproven Antero Niittymaki locked in at goal, for a very reasonable $2M each of the next two seasons, the Sharks were in a position to bring Niemi in for another $2M on a one-year deal. For less than they were paying the annually disappointing Nabakov, the Sharks had a respectable NHL journeyman in Niitymaki and now a Cup-winning youngster in Niemi.

So did Doug Wilson and the rest of the Sharks front office brain trust pull one over on the Hawks? Well, first off there wasn't a whole lot Bowman could have done even if he did want things to shake out differently. The Sharks made an offer on HJ, as they were allowed, and the Hawks were forced to match to keep him.

As for Niemi, sure Bowman could have kept him if he wanted, maybe for less than the $2.75M he won in arbitration. But I believe all the chatter that Bowman wasn't too interested. He had to know he could have Turco for the $1.35M he ultimately signed for, and given the extreme pressures on the Hawks payroll, the $1M or so he was saving in doing so was significant.

That extra million gave him room to make moves for injuries, to keep a higher paid prospect, maybe even to score a veteran role player down the road. On top of that, it's not clear Niemi would have re-upped with the Hawks for only a year. He did so with the Sharks, but that's only after it had to become clear to him that there weren't a lot of options out there. With the Hawks, Niemi seemingly wanted more than a token one-year deal and thus Bowman would have been locked into whatever contract he offered now again next season, when certainly payroll pressures will remain.

But the main reason I'm not sure the Sharks have put one past us is that I'm not sold on Niemi. To me he's just one of many average, maybe above average NHL goalies. Like the large majority of goalies playing in the NHL, he's a product of the players and system in front of him. Give him the right situation and Niemi is talented enough to win some big games for you.

But I've watched a lot of hockey in my life and seen a lot of lightly regarded goaltenders win a lot of big games for teams in the NHL Playoffs. Even if you are to set the bar as high as active NHL goalies with a Cup on their resumes, you're still looking at a bunch of guys who won't blow you away.

Osgood wasn't even the #1 guy heading into the playoffs for Detroit in 2008. JS Giguere in 2007 had a nice track record of success with the Ducks, but this past season, not even three years later, at only 33, he was unceremoniously dumped by the Ducks on the hot mess that is the Leafs. Cam Ward, the 2006 winner for the Canes, has put up solid numbers, but missed the playoffs three times in the four seasons since hoisting the Cup. And do you really want me to remind you what the recently jailed Khabi has done since his Cup win just before the lockout?

Lord, if you open it up to goalies who've taken their team to the finals and lost, you get an even more unimpressive list. Just think about this past Olympics - not a single starting goalie had even a Cup Finals to their credit, let alone a ring. Heck, few goalies in the whole Olympics had anything resembling Cup Finals experience.

My point? Don't go getting too upset over the fact that the Hawks just let a young Cup-winning goalie go. There's little to no correlation between one successful run in the NHL playoffs and sustained success as a #1 netminder. For all practical purposes, Niemi was just another role-player, no more important nor irreplaceable than a Ladd or Madden. I'd argue Buff and Versteeg will be greater losses this year.

So yeah, I think the Sharks just pissed all over the electric fence. Sure they were shrewd in getting the Hawks to pay a million or more per year for the Hammer. But if their main goal was to spring Niemi free, they don't have a whole ton to celebrate just yet. Niemi thrived behind an amazing defensive team and system, neither of which the Sharks have been shown to have.

Their blueline and forwards both are inferior to the Hawks group defensively and there's nothing to say their system is anything better, if not worse. Plus, the book on Niemi hadn't been written when he snuck through the regular season with fewer than half of the starts. Let's see how he holds up - both physically and in effectiveness - when Niemi's called on to start 50+ games and then a full slate of playoffs (after his long post-season run last year). And let's see what Uncle Niemi can do when he's not playing behind Keith, Seabrook, Hammer, Campbell, even Sopel, and a forward crew with plus defenders like Toews, Madden, Sharp, Hossa, Versteeg, and Bolland.

Yeah, there isn't a ton of downside to the Sharks getting a guy who's proven he won't wilt under the pressure. For just $2M for one year, San Jose won't regret this move too much. But I'm also not shaking in my boots because they found a middling NHL goaltender who's greatest asset was being in the right place behind the right melting down Frenchman.

It's possible Niemi becomes a bit more consistent and with more experience and confidence makes up for the lack of defensive (and offensive) prowess that's no longer in front of him. But I'm not counting on it and therefore am not too impressed by this nefarious Sharks front office plan this summer.

What I am counting on is Turco being every bit the guy Niemi was, and if he can't handle it, then Crawford getting the job done, and if he can't handle it, then another young Finn the Hawks quietly acquired this offseason - Hannu Toivonen - doing so. Because the Hawks have the talent in front and play the right type of system to make any respectable NHL goaltender a Cup winner. I'm looking forward to them proving it again this season.